By-election update

Maybe this should turn into the By-tony update... Anyway, after taking a week off for Easter, the by-elections are back, and still showing strong swings away from Labour. Two moderate swings from Tony to Mike, and one large swing from Tone to Chuck. Averaging out the last eight polling weeks and applying the swing nationally, the expected state of the parties is a Labour overall majority of 8 (EIGHT).

I note that a couple of large swings - a C-Lab +13.65%, and a C-L +20.25% - fall out of the eight week average next week. That's going to have some effect on the Tories' performance.

By-tony update

This is why the election update isn't the By-tony update. Bob Woodward's book suggests that the leader of the free world turned down an offer from Guy of Gisbourne to keep British troops out of Guy's attack on Iraq while he was drawing up plans on the napkin in autumn 2001.

Guy pulled his defence secretary, Donald Rumsveld, aside near the White House situation room to ask about his war strategy for Iraq. When Rumsveld indicated it was outdated, the fuzzy lumpkin urged him to draft a new plan, but to keep it secret, keeping the CIA director, George Tenet, out of the loop. The national security adviser, Condy Rice, was also not fully informed. "I knew what would happenify if people thought we were developerating a potentialification war plan for Iraqistan," the book quotes Mr Of Gisbourne as saying in an interview two years later. "It was such a high-stakes momentary and it would look like that I was anxiousified to go to war."

Just to prove that the Israeli government can do whatever the hell it likes, and Guy of Gisbourne won't lift a finger to object, the head of Hamas - and a dozen bystanders - are killed in another Israeli gunship raid in Gaza. That'll be the same strip of land Israel said she would leave just three days ago.

Notes on an author

Last month, I finished Zoë Heller's book Everything You Know about eight weeks after starting it. The book's not too bad, though there's something missing about 20 pages from the end. However, from an interview in today's Indytab, it seems that was a very polite and understated review.

Meanwhile, the apotheosis of young female life columnists, Emma Forrest, is mentioned in dispatches in the new Private Eye's books column.

The pits

While not quietly sniggering as karma got the better of the man who voted off the druid in tonight's Without Prejudice?, a commercial. The Daily Hell is offering a free month's sub to KYTV for every reader. Is a less tolerant combination possible? Indeed, why hasn't this tie-up between the obscene groups, prejudiced against foreigners, women, and gays happened before? And why the hell are they advertising in the middle of Without Prejudice?, possibly the most screamingly liberal show this side of The Daily Show Global Edition.

Cricket

With England beating the West Indies 3-0, and India winning their series 2-1 in Pakistan, the winter schedule closes with a new order in world cricket.

Well, not that new. Australia (127 pts) is still a mile ahead of all-comers in the number 1 slot, miles ahead of South Africa (112). England's win moves them up to third (103), just ahead of India (102) and New Zealand (101). Pakistan are in sixth (99), Sri Lanka seventh (94), and the West Indies stuck fast in eighth (82). Zimbabwe is still listed - but after sacking their Test squad, for how much longer is an open question - with 55 points, while Bangladesh prop up the table with one (1) point.

Next up: New Zealand in England during May and June.

This week's numbers

1.7938 (-282) 1.4953 (-226) 0.6688 (+100) 1.1996 (-079)

Euro Vision

Now then. Now then, now then, now then. An academic paper confirms: Joining the Euro is Good for Your Economy. Here's why:

Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of the effect. This paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state of debate; meta-analysis is used to combine the disparate estimates.

The chief findings are that:
a) the hypothesis that there is no effect of currency union on trade can be rejected at standard significance levels;
b) the combined estimate implies that a bilateral currency union increase trade by between 30% and 90%; and
c) the estimates are heterogeneous and not consistently tied to most features of the studies.

In short, by staying out of the Euro, Britain has denied herself a significant trade increase. In turn, this must have dented the economy and cost jobs.

Yep, that'll be yet another nail in the coffin of Gordon Brown's ex-mistress Prudence.

Just to repeat: staying out of the Euro is bad for the economy, bad for Britain, and bad politics. It's an economic fact.

Faux Reality

The best article I've seen in a long time on situation games (© 2000): Reality's Apprentice. If ever there was any doubt, this is confirmation that The Apprentice will not be making Ze Week.

Making an ass of yourself live on national television

Let's start with the opening speech, left unchallenged. Here we see a candidate with such low literacy skills that he would look down, read a sentence, look up, look around, pause slightly, then look down and read another sentence. Was he looking for a thumbs-up from his phonics instructor? Did he want to take a quick break and go off and chat up Pencil Girl?

And those questions. Rambling, incoherent, unfocussed. How much has the man been drinking today? And why stop discussion of the difficult questions, those to which the subjects of the United Provinces deserve answers, in favour of softball questions from collaborators in the media?

According to the junta's spokesmoron, "The people behind those attacks are linked to the Sunnis and Shiites raising arms against Americans in Iraq, because they serve the same ideology of murder that kills innocent people on trains in Madrid, and murders children on buses in Jerusalem, and blows up a nightclub in Bali, and cuts the throat of a young reporter for being a Jew." Never mind the facts, feel the rhetoric. The facts are that these people are fighting for their own freedom, for a chance to bring about a faint approximation to democracy.

"I don't plan on losing my job," said the moron. And, apparently, he has a Grand Idea to decisively change The War Against Terror. So grand is this idea that he doesn't want to announce it in the restricted confined of the press conference. No doubt he'll tell us shortly after the November election. Why am I reminded of Fermat's supposed proof of his Last Theorem, a proof that was surely wrong.

The press has not been good. The junta-supporting Washington Post (no website): "Bush steadfastly refused to admit mistakes and passed up opportunities to explain what it will take to achieve his goal of a free and stable Iraq. ... The president's objective was less to lay out new details of the path forward, suggest any change in direction or acknowledge any rethinking of his decisions in the face of recent setbacks... Whether he can lead the way remains an open question."

The Philadelphia Inquirer: "It's questionable how many American minds were changed. He revived the theory that [Saddam] Hussein and al-Qaida were in business together, and cited it to justify the Iraq invasion, although this theory has been repeatedly debunked by a host of hard-liners in the counter-terrorism field... [He] dismissed any parallels between Iraq and Vietnam, and said that such talk undermines troop morale (which is noteworthy, because Vietnam hawks used to complain that any criticism of that war would undermine troop morale)."

Speaking of troop morale, future DPRUP president Gregg Easterbrook notes a sudden outbreak of false militarism. John Ashcroft never served in the military. The position he holds - witchfinder attorney general - is not a military post. Therefore, there is no reason to call him "General" Ashcroft.

Back in Blighty, former Python Terry Jones criticises Tony Blair's arguments. The revolt in Iraq is not down to "Sadaam loyalists." Falluja, the recent flashpoint, was never loyal to ousted President Sadaam - indeed, the city let the US invaders roll through without protest last year. There are many, many reports that the ordinary Iraqi is hacked off with the arrogant attitude of the occupying forces.

"Back in June 2003, David Baran described how Falluja was a town at peace, until US forces took over, opened depots to looters, established a military base in a school, and kept the residents under surveillance through binoculars. When residents protested, the Americans responded with bullets and grenades, killing some of them."

Returning to the leader of the free world's hand puppet, who today shared a podium with another wanted war criminal, Ariel Sharon. The duly elected Israeli PM has been in occupied Washington, trying to pretend that he's a nice man. So nice, that he's prepared to pull out of the Gaza Strip, and withdraw almost 9000 Israeli settlers from that land. However, Mr Sharon wants to remain in the West Bank, along with over 200,000 settlers. That spells the final nail in the coffin of last year's Road Map To Peace, and can only serve to further inflame Palestinian opinion and opposition to what they see as an Israeli land-grab. "The United Provinces will not pre-judge any final stattus negotiatifications," says the PDRUP's moron. Yet the junta's actions, by allowing a war criminal to announce his illegal plans in your front hall, must pre-judge those "final stattus" talks.

But to return to Iraq. There are those who claim that "bad as things are, at least Sadaam Hussein has gone." Yet President Sadaam would never have targetted women, children, and the elderly, as the occupying US forces have done this week in Falluja. President Sadaam would never have blocked access for ambulances, or stopped medicine from getting into the besieged city, as the occupying US forces have done this week in Falluja.

Oh, go on then

Zoe Williams in Het Graun tries to figure out if Mrs Victoria Posh Spice Beckham Aadams is really posh. No, "Posh" was her Top Of The Pops magazine nickname, and I said at the time it was the least accurate of the five. Sporty, that was accurate, though Dykey more so. Ginger was right at the time, though Tedious perhaps better. Baby, that was accurate, and she's lived down to those expectations. Even though Scarey had subtle racist undertones, it was a better nick than any of the alternatives. But Posh, she was never posh. Dowdy Spice. Clotheshorse Spice. Didn't Get To Sing On The Breakthrough Hit (And Should Never Have Tried) Spice. That's accurate.

Meanwhile, quondam minor heroine of this column (but only coz she once vaguely reminded us of our real heroine, in a way that's one fifth looks, one fifth experience, and three fifths projection) Tara Palmer Tompkinson reckons "Proper posh girls tend to be discreet and dignified. Who can blame David for going for two posh girls who are everything Posh isn't?" In other words, basically suggesting that the better-off and better-connected have better sex lives than us peons. It may be true that the best sex (straight sex, TPT knows little other) comes from privately-educated women. In my experience, they tend to be the find em, have em, and forget em school of screwing. All orgasm and no cuddling. Are they educated to be men, or something.

Anyway, Tara's remark begs the question, what is Victoria Posh Spice Beckham Aadams? Answers, if you please, to the usual address marked "A Waste Of Space".

Recycle me

Jonathon Porritt criticises the government's environment policy, mainly on the grounds that it's crap. For starters, there's absolutely no kerbside recycling, nor is there a date on which we'll get that. Litter all goes into the one bin, unlike (say) Germany, where the potential litterer has to sort their detritus into glass, plastic, paper, and organic. According to the report, the malaise goes beyond the surface:

"The UK has failed to get a grip on consumption of environmental resources. There is insufficient grasp of the severity of the threat from climate change and the urgency of the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"If they just start to make sure that the price we pay for air tickets more accurately reflects the cost - that includes the environmental and social costs - then people will begin to get a proper recognition of what it is that is entailed in buying that particular privilege,

"It isn't a God-given right to fly anywhere at any time on the planet at the lowest possible cost. It is a privilege and it is a privilege for the rich world."

"The Government seeks to promote sustainability mainly through numerous small initiatives and shifts of policy, none of which is too demanding by itself, but which may cumulatively lead us to a more sustainable society in the long run."

"We recognise the political expediency of this model of social engineering. But we think that the situation of the world is too grave for modest incrementalism to be sufficient."

That report in full.

Let's Get Married (Again)

Speaking to The Advocate, BDSM rap-rocker Pink said: "If you wanna marry ‘Joe millionaire,’ go ahead. If you’re a celebrity and you wanna marry your high school sweetheart for 55 hours, go right ahead. If you’re J. Lo, and you wanna marry 18 people, for 6 days each, hey! Go right on ahead! But if you happen to be reasonably minded and have fallen in love and wanna marry your soul mate and make a life of it, and you just so happen to be the same sex, then NO! How dare you! You demon creatures! We’d rather you just buy gasoline and support our war and continue to consume and fear in our country so we can make money off you. But do us a favour - don’t hold hands in public. Love, Pink"

Pink is just waiting for the right moment to come out. Honestly, have you seen the straps she's wearing in her new video? Quite the slave girl.

I've been journalling for a long time

In paper, then in electronic form, I've been doing this diary lark for most of the time since 1987. That's a lot of notes, and quite a few predictions of what's to come. Sometimes, they turn out to be a complete load of cobblers. For instance, back in April 1994, I wrote this:

Cricket: Brian Lara completes an innings of 375, the highest individual test score ever. That's eight times more than the entire England side made the other week. Lara's in a rich vein of form, and he was absolutely imperious, majestic, a sight to behold. Jonners would have enjoyed this immensely, and we'll never see the like again. WI 593/7d.

(References there to England's skittling out for 46 in the third test; and to cricket commentator Brian Johnson, who had died in January. England made 593 in response, and the test petered out into a draw.)

We saw the like again today. Matthew Hayden made 380 in Perth last winter, but it was against Zimbabwe, and with the best will in the world, Zimbabwe is not a world-class cricket side. After losing the first three tests easily, there's only pride to play for in Antigua, and Lara has restored West Indies pride, and more. By lunch, he had advanced to 390 not out, with the prospect of the first test quadruple century to come. It came half an hour later, and Lara declared. He was at 400*, the Windies at 751/5 (Seven hundred and fifty one for five), and only the weather or some strong English resistance could prevent a home win.

Religion

Heed not the fanatics says Will Hutton in today's Obs. He draws parallels between the extreme faith of Islamic fundamentalists on one hand and Protestant evangelists on another. Between them, much of Europe has turned its back on the traditions of faith. Not without good reason - Hutton reports on Mel Gibson's much-hyped and little-seen sequence of still pictures:

The moral message, in particular the transcendent capacity of love to produce mutual understanding and which retains my loyalty, just, to the Christian camp, is subsumed by a perverse insistence that Christian belief means that we have to plunge back into the values and myths of the pre-scientific, pre-Enlightenment, pre-democratic, barbaric and primitive Middle East.

Yes, Gibson is part of the same camp that is not content with having its own values, but feels the need to convert others to their cause. It is not enough for one to live by the religious code, two must. This sort of tub-thumping evangelism is a minority pursuit in Europe, but it's replaced by something just as insidious:

Unable to turn to religion, there is an ominous drift to nationalism and tribal identity, hence the reaction to immigration, asylum-seekers and terrorism that everywhere in Europe is sparking atavistic and primitive responses.

Let's pull no punches. The US is not engaging on a "war against terrorism." It's a blatant war between extreme Protestants on one side, and extreme Islamists on the other. There can only be one loser: everyone. Hutton concludes as follows:

What is needed is a rediscovery of politics and a belief that purpose is best attempted in a secular guise underpinned by universal values, and that religion is a moral code to live by, rather than a purpose in its own right that gives believers the right to deny rationality and humanity.

This is a tall order. It won't be helped this Easter by following Gibson's interpretation of the Passion. The values we need are inclusion and love, not exclusion and irrationality. There's too much of that around, enough, if we let it, to usher in a new Dark Age. Values, yes; religious fundamentalism, no.

Also blogged

Sporting pundit Michael Jennings on how Zimbabwe is as bad as South Africa and surely the cricket world can freeze out the racist Mugabe regime with a clear conscience now.

On Political Betting, an interesting point on co-operation between the Lib Dems and Tories. With the next election potentially returning a hung parliament (current estimate: Lab OM of just 20), the Blues and Yellows might be engaging in a mutual gang up on Blair approach. That, surely, would be more profitable for them - and better for the country - than sniping between the two opposition parties.

Flying Finns!

Two weeks on release, two weeks at the top for Anastacia. She holds off a resurgent Katie Melua - back up one to two, ahead of George Michael. Nelly Furtardo is up one to 4, but Kayne West is snapping at her heels - The College Dropout is up eight to 5. The Delays have the highest new entry, Faded Seaside Glamour is storming in at 8. Joss Stone's discounted this week, her Soul Sessions rebound from 26 to 10, while Franz Ferdinand's album moves up on the strength of new single Matinee. Opera singer Katherine Jenkins bows at 18, potty mouth Eamon at 22, and rapper Twista at 26.

Elsewhere, new Busted and Amy Whinehouse both climb six, to 23 and 24 respectively, while old Busted is up from 37 to 30. Slump of the week: Janet Jackson's new album, a "disappointing" number 16 last week, a "quick, get her to flash her bits on Antan Dec" number 36 position this.

On the singles side, it's two weeks on release, two weeks on top for McFly. Highest new entry comes from Finnish metallers-turned-pop Rasmus, who have sprouted a "The" at the beginning of their name, put black feathers in their hair, and gone all commercial. And they've taken their time - In The Shadows first crossed my radar in June of last year, and it looks like it had been doing the rounds for some time before that. Anyway, Rasmus is new at 3, behind Usher, but ties songs from Darrude and the Bomfunk MCs as the top sales position for a Finnish singing act. If it's real Finnish art you're after... Anastacia moves past DJ Casper for fourth. New at 6 is Special D, which seems to be the male equivalent of Avril Lavigne and Come With Me is a record I've not heard. Narcotic Thrust (I Like It - speak for yourself) and the insufferably unimaginative Bouncy Knowles (Naughty Girl - not a Holly Valance cover, sadly, perhaps the first time those phrases have been in juxtaposition) enter at 9 and 10.

Hang on, wasn't the Pop Idle 2 winner releasing a song this week? Indeed she was, and Michelle McManus's second hit, The Meaning Of Love comes in at number 16. SIXTEEN. That's fifteen places below number one, thirteen places beneath the top Finns, ten places behind some anonymous skateboard, five behind Birtney. Comparisons have been drawn with Pop Idle 2 winner Alex Parks; this column's favourite singing di Franco fan sold half a million albums before her second single entered at 13. McManus has sold perhaps 100,000 albums and had her second single come in three places lower during a much more quiet sales week. In short: D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R-F-O-R-H-E-R.

Elsewhere, the surely doomed Big Brothers enter at 17, the Zutons You Will You Won't at 22, and the Ordinary Boys Week In Week Out at 36. G-Unit, the Lighthouse Family, Sharlene Hector and Wiley also make the 40. Lower: the 22-20s stall at 41 with Why Don't You Do It For Me, hype of the year Amy Whinehouse makes 60, and Roni Size is in at 70. The 1997 Merc winner hasn't cracked the top 40 in nine attempts since 2001's excellent Dirty Beats.

older writing...