International Day of Protest

All around the world, people are saying how unhappy they are at the ongoing occupation of Iraq. Four images (all captured from Euronews) make today's montage.
In the top left corner, a caricature of a generic US business droid, from the protest in Moscow.
Top right, the flag displayed by two Greenpeace activists who claimed St Stephen's Tower. The tower is a landmark symbol of parliament in London.
Bottom left, the demo in Rome, where a 100 metre long rainbow flag was paraded through the city.
And bottom right, another scene from Rome, where they've clearly spent a very long time putting together the entertainment.

Preaching to the converted

Junta spokesmoron Coelin Powell - the man who can't spell his own name - gave a press conference in occupied Iraq today. All the local journalists walked out of the media event after news filtered through that Powell's forces had killed two pressmen in central Baghdad. A representative of the Iraqi press stood up and read a statement condeming the killing. "We demand an open investigation in front of the mass media," the Arab journalist said. "We also demand that security be guaranteed to journalists" he said.

Poland's president is "uncomfortable" that he's been misled over the non-existant weapons of mass destruction. Her soldiers will remain in post, at least for the moment.

The Taiwanese president and VP survive an assissination attempt while campaigning for tomorrow's election ... Finland's worst ever road accident claims the lives of 23 people, mostly teenagers on a skiing trip from Helsinki ... Stones thrown at French - not a dispatch from the US, but from Kosov@ where NATO troops are not popular ... And Coola Cola's bottled tap water is withdrawn after research found it contained a carcinogen.

Bruise Pristina

Five years ago, the US and NATO launched an invasion of Yugoslavia to protect Kosov@. Nothing's changed. A NATO/UN force shoots into the air to stop Albanians from attacking Serb houses in Pristina, and sporadic violence across the province has killed 22 since Wednesday morning. In Belgrade, there have been marches against Albanians, mosques burned, and the Serbian PM accuses Albanians of stirring things up. The more things change...

Also...

...Eurostar trains suspended following a bomb alert. Police near Paris find an oxygen cylinder with the letters "AZF" of a shadowy group blackmailing the SNCF. Their British equivalent, Virgin, doesn't need to leave stars of Coronation Street lying around.
...Five more arrested in the ongoing investigation into last week's bombs in Madrid.
...Hotel bombings in Baghdad and Basra mark a new tactic from pro-independence forces in Iraq... Poland joins Spain in wanting out.
...EU, Microsoft fail to settle out of court, and the failing computer software maker will get its legs chopped off next Wednesday.

Incidentally...

A quick footnote to Tuesday's Spanish Election coverage. According to the UPI, an opinion poll on Wednesday last week gave the Socialist party a 2% lead, well within the margin of error from the actual result. Spain doesn't allow opinion polls to publish within a week on the election, making it much more difficult to correctly forecast the result. "No wonder I'm bored stiff" said Pedro Sno.

Sing if you're glad to be gay

Just don't bother in Wilmington, North Carolina, where some religious sex maniacs have stolen a book starring two prices from the school library.

Or, indeed, anywhere in the US, where the outlaw dominion's government usurps its own rules and ludicrously claims queers have no protection from discrimination.

There's only one ultimate answer to this: smash the regime. Those unfortunate enough to live within that benighted province really ought to consider their position. Do you want to pay taxes to a government that takes away fundamental human rights, including those guaranteed under the 14^th amendment to its own constitution?

As for the rest of us, the answer is perhaps more simple. No respect to the junta. In particular, not one Euro cent (1.25 of their piddly cents) to prop up their regime.

And, yes, that includes visiting their poxy little place in the sand. They charge fees to get in, and somewhat larger fees to get out.

If the dominion's self-proclaimed rulers think again, then so shall I. We shall see who blinks first.

Birthday greetings...

...to Cara and Jaeda, two of the greatest people in my life, now and ever.

The budget

I'm going all Independent on us here, and putting a very factual headline, coz there are so many possible sub-heads.

Gordon's Big Gamble

Gordon Brown increased spending to health and education, hoping that he'll be able to pay for the changes from better-than-expected growth, and slashing civil service jobs. These job cuts come from a report prepared Peter Gershon. The official paper describes him as a "former CEO of British Aerospace" but omits his later engagement at Marconi, where he presided over a £5bn loss and near-bankruptcy. Brown does nothing to directly address the growing balance of payments deficit or reduce sterling's strength.

Is there an election coming?

Labour cut the ground from under the Conservatives by pre-empting the opposition's attacks on civil service inefficiency. There's a one-off £100 grant to old age pensioner households. What would the Tories do to cut taxes, that's the question Brown wants us to answer. What will Brown do if his gamble fails, is the question he doesn't want us to ask.

Mind The Gap

Brown does nothing to address the savings gap, and everything to increase it. There's no extension of the tax breaks on ISAs, the accounts will become less and less attractive over the next two years. Tax-free pensions will be capped at £1.5 million - a vast some for most, but this will hit anyone who expects their average lifetime earnings to reach £45K a year at today's prices. Curiously, this cap will not apply to government pensions, meaning that Mr Brown's own pension is unaffected. Inheritance tax is increased in line with inflation, so more and more people will find their main homes fall under the taxman's gaze. At the other end of life, stamp duty will still be charged on house purchases of £60,000. This figure hasn't changed since 1993, when it hit just 30% of first-time buyers. Now, it's 76%. Adjusted for price inflation, the bottom figure would now be £100,000; for house price inflation, nearer £150,000.

Oh, fuck the Euro

Once again, Gordon's prejudice against the single European currency shows. There will be no further evaluation of the spurious Euro-tests this year, effectively ruling out a UK referendum before late 2007. British membership of the Euro is a nakedly political affair, and it's abundently clear that Labour has no hope of courting the small pro-Europe vote. It'll all go to the Lib Dems, along with perhaps ten marginals.

Another Chris Morris Idea

Bomb dogs in Iraq. Next: Mister Tony Blair has to breathe helium while doing all interviews to reduce his credibility.

Spanish elections

While not falling asleep at the swingometer last Sunday night, Pedro Sno brought us news of a surprising defeat: the People's Party of Sr Aznar had been defeated, and the Socialist party had won. Predictably, the Indytab has gone long on how this is bad news for war criminals:

Spain, under her outgoing prime minister, was the third high-profile member of the so-called "coalition of the willing", after Britain and the US. Sr Aznar took part in the tripartite eve-of-war Azores summit with Mr Blair and his poodle, while Spain was co-sponsor of the failed Security Council resolution last March that would have put a United Nations imprimatur on the war.

Then, three days after the Madrid terrorist bombings for which Muslim groups increasingly appear responsible, Spain switched sides. The victory of the anti-war Socialist party in effect re-aligns Madrid with France and Germany, and leaves Italy and Poland, along with Britain, as the main European supporters of the war in Iraq.

A Republican party reptile called José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the incoming Prime Minister, yesterday to congratulate him, but there was no disguising their disappointment. Two hours before the polls closed in Madrid, Condoleezza Rice, the party's national security spokesmodel, was on US television proclaiming her belief that "the Spanish people understand that they've had strong and good leadership in José Maria Aznar and his government".

Not only was that view quickly and harshly contradicted by the election result; so too was the party's assumption that a major terrorist attack in Europe would draw sceptical populations closer to Washington. In Spain, the opposite happened. Spanish voters have decided that being close to the US is a risky proposition.

That's democracy for you. If, as some have claimed, throwing out a government that makes unpopular decisions and tries to make political capital out of a crime against humanity is giving in to terrorism, then either we need to elect a new Spanish citizenry, or we need to pay even less attention to the warmongers' rhetoric than before. (Is that possible? - Ed)

Travelling cameraman

Seven snapshots from my recent trip to London.

Starting with the two for Tube geeks: this is what a tall person can see by peering over the wall behind Aldgate underground station. For the rest of us, it's a case of standing on tippy-toe, poking the camera over the wall, and hoping something decent comes out. Aldgate is where the Metropolitan line finally grinds to a halt, and the train in the station is going to head back up the Met to somewhere suburban, or possibly somewhere exotic. The platform face you might just be able to see on the extreme left is used by Circle line trains heading round to Tower Hill, and is the only platform on the entire Circle line used by no other trains. The corresponding through platform on the right hand side, heading to Liverpool St, can accommodate Met trains in an emergency.

And so it goes... Also on the right is something I found just yards away, a throwback to the GLC's best efforts at creating a London where cars and pedestrians could co-exist. Their tactic? Declare defeat for the walker and shove him underground. In these days of congestion charging, such efforts look a bit pointless, really. Especially if the map signs aren't updated in twenty years.

On your left, the Royal Exchange building as it looked sometime around 11 last Friday night. Back in the dim and distant past (OK, 1986), this building was the physical centre of the London stock market. Then along came computerised trading, and the physical floor went away. It's now a shopping centre, shockingly.

On your right, evidence that I can go where winners go.

On the left is the first big commission for Norman Foster, the building for insurers Lloyds of London. They wanted something with no risk of leaks, so he put the plumbing on the outside of the building. They wanted something with no risk of stuck lifts, so he put the elevators on the outside of the building. They wanted something with no risk of being ignored, and on that they were successful.

On the right, his latest commission, the building on the ground where the Baltic Exchange stood. This building is still under construction, and opinion is sharply divided as to whether it's a Gherkin, a Rabbit, or something else entirely. If you have an opinion, do keep it to yourself.

By-election results: UK

I've held off further analysis of the by-elections pending clarification of the boundaries in Scotland. That clarification is yet to arrive, but what I have got is data based on the Boundary Commission's final proposals. That's enough to calculate the notional 2001 results, and project those forward.

The method I'm using starts with all by-elections to District, Metropolitan, County, and Unitary authorities in England, Wales, and Scotland. Excluded from the count are seats won by an Independent candidate, seats where the defending party did not contest the by-election, and seats where the by-election was won by a party that didn't contest the last regular election. Work out the swing between the two largest moving parties, and the swing between the third party and the largest movement. Halve this latter swing, deduct it from the first swing, and remember that swings take a sign.

So far this year, 35 by-elections have met my criteria. The average swing is as follows:

Labour --> Conservative: +8.7%
Liberal --> Conservative: -0.7%
Liberal --> Labour: -12.2%

Projecting that swing up to the Commons on a uniform national projection gives these outline results:

Scotland unchanged:
              Seats  +   -
-----------------------------
Labour         366   0  47
Conservative   203   40  3
Lib Dems        59   7   0
Plaid C          5   1   0
S N P            7   2   0
N Ireland       18   0   0
Others           1   0   0

Labour Overall Majority: 73

Scotland new boundaries:
              Seats  +   -
-----------------------------
Labour         354   0  48
Conservative   202   39  2
Lib Dems        59   7   0
Plaid C          5   1   0
S N P            7   3   0
N Ireland       18   0   0
Others           1   0   0

Labour Overall Majority: 62

As ever with uniform national swings, there's a fair element of uncertainty about the exact numbers, but the indications are of a healthy lead for Mr Brown Blair in October 2005 spring 2006 June next year.

More graphics from the Election 70 studio in a couple of weeks.

Blimey!

For a change, let's start with the singles sales by volume chart. For the first time since the end of 2000, a record climbs to the top. DJ Casper's Cha Cha Slide follows in the footsteps of rok klassiks Can We Fix It, The Millooneyum Prayer, Heartbeat / Tragedy, and Chocolate Salty Balls in climbing to the top. It's the first record to enter below 1 then move up outside the festive period since Feel It in May 98. Birtney's Pears is deposed to 2, the combination of Jennifer Lopez and R Kelly is 3, Enrique and Kelis bow at 5, and Tippa Irie joins the Black Eyed Peas at 6. Second time around is the charm for Fountains of Wayne at 11, even though Stacey's Mom has been boring the pants off of me since about January. Jazz youngster Jamie Cullum is in at 12, Flopstars losers Phixx at 13, and Marques Houston's 15.

The good stuff is in outside the 20, so Lionel Richie's not recommended. The Vines' Ride is a decent enough two-minute blast, but if it's the best thing off the album, they're stuffed. Jet perhaps go a single too far with Look What You've Done when a rerelease of The Chelle Song would be more appropriate. Surprised to see Northern Heights' Look At Us scraping in at 29, the song has an almost hypnotic riff from "Groovy Kind Of Love" and is perfect throwaway tinkly cheesy pop. Graham Coxon's first solo single is a hit, Freakin' Out lands at 37 and is just about the New Record Of The Week. Bad luck to Stellarstarr, My Coco falls short at 46, four places ahead of Sarah McLachlan's Fallen.

Of the long-runners: Outkast come down to 19, their lowest position this year; Katie Melua's 31, her lowest in a 14 week run. Last year, Paul Gambicinni wondered who would provide the 2000s version of The Lion Sleeps Tonight. In his worst nightmares, he couldn't have expected old Radio 1 colleague Mike Read to team up with Charlie "Lord" Brockett and Neil "Razor" Ruddock from Ich Bin Ein Star, Get Me To A Recording Studio. Only in Britain, folks, only in Britain.

On the albums listing, easy is the order of the day. Katie Melua holds the top for an eighth (count 'em!) straight week, with Father Daniel O'Donnell covering 1950s standards at 2. Jamie Cullum holds at 3, ahead of a new entry from Harry Connick Junior covering 1950s standards at 4. Jamelia is modern and down three to 5. It's downward pressure all the way, so props to Britney holding at 10, Blink 182 rising one to 12, Kylie up nine to 15, and the week's surprise package, Sarah McLachlan, climbing eight to a new peak at 19. Enrique moves back in at 27, Nelly Furtardo at 32, and Jet at 36, while the only new entry is the Key Sessions Quartet's Piano Sessions at 30.

older writing...