At the swingometer...

Cliff, the opinion polls are saying only one thing: Mister Tony Blair has become an electoral liability. NOP in the Indytab reports that 51% of those polled want Blair to go, compared with 35% who want him to stay. 54% think he lied over Iraq, 31% believe every word that slipped Blair's lips was a pearl of truthfulness. 68% reckon the looming inquiry into the missing weapons of mass distraction will be a whitewash, compared to 23% who maintain it will be a genuine attempt to find the truth.

More tellingly, the If There Were A General Election Tomorrow question shows 36% voting for the Conservatives, 35% for Labour, 24% for the Lib Dems. That's a four-and-a-half percent swing from the last national poll, coupled with a six percent rise for the third party. Patterns of voting from local council by-elections this year tell an almost identical story, a four-and-a-half percent swing to the Conservatives from Labour, a swing slightly over two percent from Conservative to Liberal, and one of nearly seven percent from Labour to the Lib Dems. Translated into seats, we get this:

   Lab loses 41 to C
   Lab loses 5 to LD
   Lab loses 1 to PC
   Lab loses 1 to SNP
   C loses 6 to LD
   Ind loses 1 to Lab

   - - - - - - - - - - -

   STATE OF THE PARTIES

      Labour   366
      Conserv  201
      Lib Dem   63
      SNP        6
      PC         5
      Others    18

   - - - - - - - - - - -

        L A B O U R

     OVERALL MAJORITY

            73

Robin?

Match of the Day

The biathlon world championships begins in Oberhof, in poor conditions. The snow is slushy and melting, and late starters in the womens' sprint find conditions very poor. The winner, unsurprisingly, is Liv Grete Poiree; she missed one on the first shoot, took an eternity to shoot second time round, but skiied 30 seconds faster than all comers to win by 20 seconds. Russian Anna Bogali came second, shooting clear. We have a tie for third between Ekaterina Ivanova and Martina Glagow, both missing one shot. Sandrine Bailly finished fifth, Nathalie Santer of Italy rose from 60th start position to finish 10th, rising star Natalia Guseva 17th. Conditions did for Kati Wilhelm (26th, 4 misses).

Double joy for the Poiree clan, as Raphael wins the mens' sprint, beating Ricco Gross by just nine seconds as both men go clear. Ole Einar Bjorndalen missed two on the first shoot but still finished third, with surprise package Filipp Shulman skiing his life to come in fourth, ahead of Michael Greis. Vladimir Dratchev had a nightmare, missing four of ten and finishing almost four minutes behind the winner. Leading Brit Tom Clemens finished 86th, 6:39 behind the winner and two minutes short of making the 60-man pursuit race tomorrow. Mark Gee finished 20 seconds and three places lower, Jason Skelnar 96th at 7:45, and Marc Walker 102nd, 9:26 off the winner.

Oi! DiFranco fans! 'Ere!

Proud to be a United Station, eh?. Oh, and is the new album any cop? Anyone? J? L? Rev? Anyone?

The credibility gap

Another day, another blimmin' good front pager on the Iraq Weapons Of Mass Disappearance. For instance...

The Government's dossier, published in September 2002, cited the 45-minute claim no fewer than four times. It was deemed so important to Tony Blair's case that it was highlighted in his own foreword, in the executive summary and twice in the body of the text.

The wording varied slightly, but the strongest formulation was in the body of the text: "The Iraqi military are able to deploy these weapons within 45 minutes of an order to do so."

Mr Blair's own use of the phrase came almost immediately after claims about the threat posed by Saddam's ballistic missile programme. He made it clear it was the basis for his belief that Iraq was a "serious and current threat".

Mr Blair followed up with a speech to Parliament on the same day in which he again underlined the 45-minute claim. The dossier concludes, he said, "that Saddam ... has existing and active military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons which could be activated within 45 minutes"...

It now appears that the reason Mr Blair subsequently dropped the claim on the eve of war was because he was told that MI6 suggested it referred to battlefield weapons.

Robin Cook asked if Mr Blair worried they would be used against British troops. Mr Blair's response was: "Yes, but all the effort he has had to put into concealment makes it difficult for him to assemble them quickly to use." So Mr Blair did appear to know on the eve of war that the 45-minute claim was groundless and had been advised that it referred to battlefield weapons.

Most crucial, why does Mr Blair insist that the 45-minute point was not important? Dr Jones has made the point that the claim is one of the few in the dossier that declares that WMD existed. The only other clear claim that WMD existed was the equally controversial intelligence that Saddam continued to produced chemical weapons.

What the Indy doesn't go on to state, because we know it already, is how Brian Hutton somehow managed to say that this was a "little-regarded" claim. That was last week's whitewash.

The Filth And The Futile (2)

And on rumbles the fallout from John Lydon's latest burst of self-publicity. Mark Lawson, wondering why less than eight viewers in a million moaned, makes the salient point that it's all about context. "If Jennie Bond had used the c-word, her career might have been seriously damaged because both her fan-base and prospective employers in television regard her as respectable." Not that he can resist the usual crack at the show's hosts: "On Tuesday night, Ant, or possibly Dec, looked as scandalised as a curate and apologised at once."

Lydon, meanwhile, has waltzed from the IBES clearing, complaining that he's more bored than something very boring indeed.

Just to clarify...

The man was a drug using alcoholic with a felony criminal record who went AWOL from the military and then failed at every business venture he ever engaged in. He then went on to bankrupt the entire country, make the US more hated than ever around the world, and get the country into a losing guerilla war. And think.

The Filth And The Futile

As self-publicist John Rotten calls the Grate British Public a load of "fucking cunts" for keeping him in Ich Bin Ein Swearbox Holt Mich Hier Blimmin' Raus, Het Grauniad lists all top 28 swear words on British television. The research pre-dates the recent descent of "Blair" to cover the 4th word on the list, and still denies "Henry Kelly" as a synonym for the top ranking word.

[Addition Feb 7] Regular reader Jiggers points out that the terms split into two groups: one group is either very offensive or completely inoffensive with very little ground; the other is generally regarded as moderately offensive or worse. Social scientists will be having a chuffin' field day.

And speaking of Henry Kellys...

The media are revolting. Press and magazines are looking into Candidate X's false claims of military service and how someone lost a ricin parcel last October and how he wants to run Iraq and Afghanistan on USD 0.00.

This is the man who knew how hard it was "to put food on your family," explained in a debate that "we ought to make the pie higher," expressed confidence that "the human being and fish can co-exist peacefully," declared that "families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream," and stated, "They misunderestimated me." He has dubbed astronauts "spatial entrepreneurs," announced that "the illiteracy level of our children are appalling," and referred to himself as "governor."

What a Henry Kelly.

The weather's a bit odd...

The report from 0550 this morning has mostly cloudy (correct), windy (SSW 18 gusting to 31), and 13 (THIRTEEN) degrees of Centigrade. Remember, that's 13 degrees an hour and a half before sunrise, usually the coldest point of the night. And it's only down to 13. The cause is a vigorous low pressure system pumping up hot, wet air from the Azores, and dumping it all over us. But 13 at the dead of night. That just doesn't happen.

The commentariat

Het Graun thinks about the Haj carnage and works out that God is best left out of it.

God, He moves in mysterious ways. Surely one of the greatest mysteries is why he should see fit to move with such lethal regularity on visitors to the Haj. It seems particularly ill-fitting that the vast crowd were shouting "God is greatest" at the very moment that he revealed his tragic intentions...

No one else is interested in bringing attention to this recurring carnage because western governments - some of whose citizens are part of the pilgrimage - are afraid of offending the Saudis. ... God's intentions are not an explanation for incidents such as this and the stampede on Sunday. They are an excuse. Similarly, to hold the Saudis to account for these deaths is not an act of a racism. But it is a form of racism to ignore them.

Germaine Greer launches a tirade against Ich Bin Ein Star. "It's all a complete load of fakery," she shouts. "I should know, I spend months just the other side of the hill."

Also: Danny Morrison's Hutton Report, Readers review the stars, Sense on educational trips, and an advancement in trains.

Europe

In amongst the government propaganda, Europe Minister Denis McShane makes some salient points. First he thinks about the EU expansion in (how long?) 88 days:

Technically, every Roma from Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy could pitch up in our cold and rather damp island - but they don't, any more than Brits go to other EU member states where benefits are far more generous than chez nous. In any case, we have in the Act powers that can be used instantly if there is a massive surge of immigrants that could damage the economy. As it is, we have a huge number of east Europeans working here and from May 1 they will be regularised and will pay tax and national insurance.

And then he turns his attention to a similar liberalising of borders elsewhere in the world.

Nine to 10 million illegal immigrants in the US may obtain work permits and stay in America. I am surprised that the Rothermere press and other tabloids are not denouncing the US junta for being so generous to asylum seekers and economic migrants.

Over at the BBC, there's a report suggesting that just 18% will certainly vote in June's European elections. I reckon it'll be double that, as the European elections are rolled into local elections across England and Wales. Still, good to see that Chris Morris is doing something useful with his days.

A Page 3 Blow Up Balloon writes...

"Come on, Kerry, we're not bimbos."

Press accountability

Slowly but surely, the NF Times' Public Editor Daniel Okrent is getting his style in gear. Here's one swipe from today's column:

In the last several weeks, three stories launched elsewhere have been either diminished or disregarded by The Times. (Of course, among major news organizations, this not-invented-here attitude is no more exclusive to The Times than are commas.)

As a starting point for some ascerbic independence of thought, this is a bit promising.

Radio 2 Music

Two tips from last night's shows.

1) Remember when Cliff Pilchard smashed Over The Rainbow and What A Wonderful World together into a train wreck of a tune a couple of years ago? Turns out that, like everything else in his career, Cliff had nicked the idea. In this case, it's from Israel Kamaka Wewo'hole, a chap from Hawaii who strummed the two tunes together on his ukelele back in 1993. Though the man passed away in summer 1997, his tune is now in the top 20 of the US digital download charts, and that's enough to bring it to Paul Gambiccinni's attention and a spin on his show. For the second time this century, Radio 2 looks set to use Over The Rainbow to launch the career of a dead artist.

2) Speaking of dead artists, anyone for a Sid Vicious documentary? Get in quick, the link rots on Saturday.

Cellars

New best-selling single, LMC's Take Me To The Clouds Above. It sets a line from Whiney Houson's "How Will I Know" to the tune of U2's "I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For". Or is it "With Or Without You"? Ah, who cares, it's the 970th record to top the GBHS list. Kelis still at 2, Michelle McManus slips to 3, Outkast still at 4. Snow Patrol's Run is a rather good newie at 5, Emma Bunton's I'll Be There enters at 7, and Lostprophets' Last Train Home debuts at 8. Recommended. Pink has a number 11 hit, Jamieson's also in the 20, as is Joss Stone's White Stripes cover, Fell In Love With A Boy. No, I don't quite know what all the fuss is about, we have out rising star, and it's not this one. Other top 40 entries for Mr On, the Jungle Brothers, Razorlight's Stumble And Fall, Tube & Berger, and Puff Daddy and chums. Tali just misses the 40, Tim Deluxe, Freeland, Fight Club, Baron, Clarkesville, and Veils debut below number 60.

Good second week performance for Maroon 5, slipping three with six new entries above, and for Katie Melua, down just the one place. Her run this year: 22-23-24-24-25. Slumporama for Tupac, Victoria PSBA, and the fabbo Delays, but a fall of five in week three is a great result for HIM.

On the albums listing, Willy Oung is disqualified after we find that some pressings of his work are Corrupt Disks. Last week's placings exclude the cheat.

None of this changes Katie Melua's dominance, ahead of Air's Talkie Walkie in at 2. The Black Eyed Peas slip to 3, Joss Stone advances three to 4. The Coral had a mini-album, Nightfreak and the Sons of Becker out this week, it debuts at 5.

Big climbs for Amy Whinehouse (13-8), Birtney's Pears (27-11), the Offspring (15-21), and Maroon 5 (34-17). Small climbs for Damien Rice (31-28) and Goldfrapp (32-30). Slump of the week is from Gary Jules: new at 6 last week, down to 21 today; last week's Slump Of The Week was Ali Griffin, he's now gone 5-16-35 and has fallen behind Sparky (back down three to 32.) Lemar dips three to 18.

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