Weaver's Hierachy of Internal Parties
A ranking of the most important political parties in the UK at this time
May 3, 2003
The beginning bit
Thursday May 1 saw the second quadrennial National Election Day. This doesn't involve elections to the UK parliament, but does have elections to local councils in almost all of England, plus devolved assemblies in Scotland and Wales, and district councils in Wales. The practical upshot: this is probably the best means of testing bedrock support for all parties, and is the best metric for the smaller parties that don't make it to Westminster.
So, who won, who lost, and what is the standing amongst the political parties? Let me unveil the provisional 2003 Weaver's Hierarchy of Internal Parties.
This edition of the WHIP includes the Ulster parties in approximate positions, for two very good reasons: 1) the UK government has postponed devolved elections there until further notice; and 2) I don't fully understand the situation, especially apropos of the minor parties. Such ranking as I can give is based on their performance at the 98 Assembly elections, the 99 Euro elections, and the 01 Westminster elections.
The ranking is a subjective judgement, based on representation at more of the following: parish, district, county and city councils; at devolved assemblies in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London; at the European Parliament; at the UK parliament in Westminster. Where representation is roughly equal, parties that appear to be on a rising curve are ranked ahead of those on a falling curve. To qualify for the WHIP, parties must have a member at devolved level or above, or have a dozen or so members at local level. Independents in the assemblies and parliaments may be combined for convenience.
Potential governments
1 Labour
It's six years to the day since Mister Tony Blair took up residence in Downing Street, and he's never seriously been challenged. Thursday saw Labour lose some traditional strongholds - Birmingham, Bolton, Coventry, and Dudley have all been Labour as far as the eye can remember, and Bristol is another big loss. The party's dominance in Westminster is unchallenged.
2 Conservatives
Consolidated their position as the leading party of local councils, with around 4000 representatives at this level. Gains in constituency seats in Scotland will add spring to the step of the party north of the border. Still unable to turn this into success at national level, though working up from the grass roots is a necessary - but not sufficient - condition to topple the sitting government.
3 Liberal Democrats
Came within an ace of beating Labour amongst seats contested yesterday, and finished third at Holyrood, ahead of the Conservatives. 10% of Westminster seats and 30% of the vote means they're clearly the third party.
Strong regional presence
4 Scottish Nationalist Party
Lost 10 seats in the Scottish parliament elections, and didn't do too well in the districts. Retains this position because the SNP has seats at Westminster, and far more councillors than the next parties.
5 Ulster Unionist Party
The traditional home for Protestant votes, the largest party at Stormont. Suffered some reversals in the 2001 Westminster elections.
6 Sinn Fein
The political wing of the IRA became the biggest Catholic party at the 2001 Westminster elections. Expected to do well at the Stormont elections, whenever they happen, and could threaten a breakthrough at next year's European poll.
7 Plaid Cymru
The Welsh nationalist party has strong regional strength in North Wales. Failed to keep the protest votes from 1999 in Labour's traditional heartlands. Still the second party in Wales.
8 Social Democratic and Labour Party
Another Northern Irish party, strongest amongst the Nationalist community. Fell badly in the 2001 Westminster elections, and will be hoping to retain position in the Stormont elections
9 Green Party
Soared to six seats in Scotland, and added a dozen local councillors across England. Does decently well at district and parish level, and there's enough strength to allow representation at very large levels, giving places at Holyrood and the European Parliament. Still to make a breakthrough on the national stage.
10 Democratic Unionist Party
Hard-line Unionist party, led by the charismatic Ian Paisley. Has been attracting votes from the UUP recently, mostly from those unhappy with the Irish peace process.
11 Scottish Socialist Party
The other big gainers at Holyrood, moving from one seat to five. Haven't yet won a constituency seat, but on this showing, it's only a matter of time. It'll be very interesting to see how the SSP and SNP fare in next year's European elections.
Also represented at high levels
12 Independent Health Campaigners
The 2001 Westminster election was dull. Perhaps the only interesting result came in Kidderminster, where retired doctor Richard Taylor (pictured) took the seat, on a groundswell of opposition to plans to downgrade the local hospital. Health Concern later took Kidderminster's district council. Another health campaigner won the Scottish Parliament seat in Strathkelvin. Hospitals are a big issue with the fabled "middle England" voter, and IHCs represent the biggest special interest group.
13 UK Independence Party
Won two seats in the 99 Euro elections, and picked up the odd seat at district level. Curious that the main representation for the avowedly anti-Europe party is at the level they want to remove. Their progress at next year's Euro elections will be interesting.
14 Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
The longest established cross-community party, ploughing a lonely furrow to take the religion out of politics in Northern Ireland. It hasn't happened yet.
15 Independent Labour
A catchall to cover everyone who was once elected under the Labour banner, but is now sitting as an Independent. Dennis Canavan (pictured) is still the MSP in Falkirk, John Marek is now the independent AM for Wrexham, and Ken Livingstone has another year of office as London Mayor. By a quirk of fate, Mr Marek now holds the balance of power in the Welsh Assembly; if Labour allows him to return to their fold, the party will have an overall majority. This umbrella also covers Dave Nellist's Socialist Alternative party, with two councillors in Coventry.
16 (Scottish) Senior Citizens Unity Party
Coming up on the outside rails, a group that advocates the interests of the elder generation. The party won a list seat in Central Scotland after just three months in existence. Assuming that they organise nationally, look for possible gains in London and Europe next year.
17 Ratepayers / Residents groups
Still provide pockets on district councils up and down the country, and run quite a few parish councils.
18 Womens' Coalition of Northern Ireland
Another cross-community party, advocating issues of concern to women. Slightly surprised that similar parties haven't arisen elsewhere in the UK.
19 Independent Conservatives
Back in the dark days of the Major government, many worthy councillors resigned the Conservative status and stood as Independents. Most of them have now returned to the Tory fold, and very few councils remain in their hands.
20 Margo MacDonald
Formerly a Scottish Nationalist, now elected MSP on the lists for Lothian.
21 Progressive Unionist Party
The political wing of the UDF. Has some support amongst the Unionists for whom Dr Paisley is a soft sell-out.
Representation at county and district council level
22 Liberals / Social Democrats
When the Liberal and Social Democratic parties merged in 1988, a small minority of members preferred to go their own way. David Owen led most of the SDP away, but that organisation only now survives in his old stomping ground of Plymouth. The Liberal party, lead by former MP Michael Meadowcroft, still has representation in Worcestershire, Devon, and the north east.
23 Mansfield Independents
A non-party grouping that won Mansfield from Labour, the first time that council has been out of Labour hands in 30 years. There is a story behind this, but initial research has not told us about that tale.
24 English Independents
Non-party groups have held Eden since the dawn of time, and squeaked home in North Cornwall.
25 Scottish Independents
There's a strong Scottish tradition of entrusting politics to local people, and disregarding party affiliations.
26 Christian parties
Another umbrella stand, covering various small groupings dotted up and down the country, including one that may secure a presence in London.
27 Merbyon Kernow
The Cornish nationalist party. Strong in Cornwall, oddly enough.
28 Indian sub-continental parties
Parties appealing to those who trace their heritage to the Indian sub-continent. Punching slightly above their representation weight, as one such party now holds the balance of power in Birmingham.
29 Socialist Alliance
The former Communist Party, still attracts some support in parts of London and other urban centres.
30 British Nationalist Party
Squeaks a place at the bottom of the WHIP with fifteen council seats, mainly in the North West and Black Country. Don't believe the media hype, this is an extremely minority party, barely more than a fringe pressure group.