It's not looking to be a quiet Christmas at the AFC headquarters in Kansas, as the league gears up for the possibility of the Great Eight 'N' Eight Eight Straight Collation. Count 'em carefully, no less than *eight* sides could finish the season with an 8-8 record, all vying for one play off spot, and then positions right down to fourth worst in the conference. Those standings with one week to go are in the sidebar...
Oakland, Pittsburgh, and the Flaming Thumbtacks of Nashville have their divisions wrapped up. Jacksonville, Houston, and (shockingly!) Da Bungles will not be in the post season.
Now, let's put that in another form...
AFC Division Leaders
Team W-L v AFC v Div
1 Oakland 10-5 8-3 3-2
2 Flaming Thumbtacks 10-5 8-3 5-0
3 Miami 9-6 7-4 2-3
4 Pittsburgh 9-5-1 7-4 5-0
Wild Card Leaders
5 Indianapolis 9-6 7-4 3-2
6 Cleveland 8-7 7-5 3-3
Contenders
7 Denver 8-7 5-7 3-3
8 New Jersey/B 8-7 6-6 4-2
9 Kansas City 8-7 6-5 2-3
10 New England 8-7 5-6 3-2
11 San Diego 8-7 6-6 3-3
12 Baltimore 7-8 7-4 3-2
13 Buffalo 7-8 4-7 2-4
So, let's start with the remaining divisional championship. Miami plays New England. Miami wins, they take the division. Miami loses, they don't win the division. In that case, NJ/B has to beat Green Bay to take the division; lose that, and New England comes through to claim the division.
Okay so far? Good. That was the warm-up.
Next, sort out who has homefield advantage and the byes. Oakland beats Kansas, they take #1. Fail, and the Thumbtacks need only to beat Houston at 6pm Sunday to take the top slot. If both lose, and Miami wins, then we're looking at the murky Strength Of Victory breaker: the winning percentage of all the sides a team has defeated. In this event, Oakland will almost certainly still take top slot, followed by the Thumbtacks, followed by Miami. Thanks to their draw against Atlanta some weeks ago, Pittsburgh will slot in somewhere; they play at Baltimore at 6pm Sunday, and defeats for Oakland and the FT would leave the door open for the top slot.
Indy takes a play-off slot with a win. If they fail, they fall into competition with various opponents.
So, what if we get multiple teams ending up at 9-7? Here's how they get there, and the revised standings...
Miami (loses to New England) 9-7 7-5 2-4 Indianapolis (loses to Jacksonville) 9-7 7-5 3-3 Cleveland (beats Atlanta) 9-7 7-5 3-3 Kansas City (beats Oakland) 9-7 7-5 3-3 San Diego (beats Seattle) 9-7 6-6 3-3 New Jersey/B (beats Green Bay) 9-7 6-6 4-2 New England (beats Miami) 9-7 6-6 4-2 Denver (beats Arizona) 9-7 5-7 3-3
Kansas starts at 10pm Saturday; Miami, NE, Cleveland at 6pm Sunday; Indy at 9:05; Denver, San D, and NJ/B ten minutes later.
In that scenario, NJ/B has won the division on Strength Of Schedule and can be eliminated from further consideration. The sides NJ/B has beaten have gone 61-60 with 7 matches remaining NE's defeated opponents have gone 61.5-75.5 with 7 remaining. However, Buffalo (twice), Detroit, and Minnesota feature in both team's lists, and the remaining 3 games cannot swing the vote to the Patriots.
In the NFL's strange and bizarre world, we now have to construct divisional tables before continuing.
East:
New England 9-7 6-6 4-2
Miami (swept by New England) 9-7 7-5 2-4
South:
Indianapolis 9-7 7-5 3-3
North:
Cleveland 9-7 7-5 3-3
West:
Denver (3-1 against SD & KC) 9-7 5-7 3-3
West for 3rd:
Kansas City 9-7 7-5 3-3
San Diego 9-7 6-6 3-3
So, first step compares *only*:
New England 9-7 6-6 4-2 Indianapolis 9-7 7-5 3-3 Cleveland 9-7 7-5 3-3 Denver 9-7 5-7 3-3
The best conference record is Indy and Cleveland, so they qualify; and Indy won that match, 28-23, on Dec 15. This gives them 5th seeding.
The complete list of head-to-head tie breakers:
New England beats Miami (sweep)
NJ/B beats New England (strength of schedule)
NJ/B beats Miami (divisional record)
Denver beats Kansas (sweep)
Kansas beats San Diego (common opponents)
San Diego beats Denver (conference record)
NJ/B beats Denver (direct)
NJ/B beats San Diego (direct)
New England beats Kansas (direct)
Miami beats Indy (direct)
Miami beats SD (direct)
Miami beats Cleveland (strength of victory)
Cleveland beats NJ/B (direct)
Cleveland beats New England (conference)
Cleveland beats Denver (conference)
Cleveland beats SD (conference)
Indy beats Cleveland (direct)
Indy beats Denver (direct)
Indy beats SD (conference)
Indy beats NJ/B (conference)
Indy beats New England (conference)
Indy beats Kansas (common opponents: 2-2 v 1-3)
Denver beats Miami (direct)
Denver beats New England (direct)
Kansas beats Miami (direct)
Kansas beats NJ/B (direct)
Kansas beats Cleveland (direct)
SD beats New England (direct)
Phew. Still with us? Good. No, we've not quite finished, that only covers the situation if one of the 8-7 sides wins. What if they all lose, and the 7-8 sides win?
Cleveland (L Atlanta) 8-8 7-5 3-3 Kansas City (L Oakland) 8-8 6-6 2-4 San Diego (L Seattle) 8-8 6-6 3-3 New Jersey/B (L GB) 8-8 6-6 4-2 New England (L Miami) 8-8 5-7 3-3 Denver (L Arizona) 8-8 5-7 3-3 Baltimore (W Pittsburgh) 8-8 8-4 4-2 Buffalo (W Da Bungles) 8-8 5-7 2-4
The pertinent tie-breakers above still apply, except:
San Diego beats Kansas (divisional record)
Also:
NJ/B beats Buffalo (season sweep)
New England beats Buffalo (season sweep)
Baltimore beats Cleveland (division)
Baltimore beats Denver (direct)
Baltimore beats Kansas, SD, NJ/B, New England, Buffalo (all conference)
In this amazing eventuality, the 6th wild card is, therefore, Baltimore.
Phew! Glad that's all sorted out.