The Snow In The Summer Or So-So

The FARCE Election 2006

The Swingometer After The Results

Both swingometers will measure the rising tide of Democrat support.

All results are as per CNN's website during the course of Wednesday morning. Though the results are not expected to change, the margins of victory probably will, and I shall update the margins once final results are declared late in the month. Goodness, can't these people organise an election yet..?

In the Upper House Swingometer, only gains are coloured.

Upper House Swingometer, 2006
ProvinceSwingResultNew margin
Arizona-35.5R Hold-9
Wyoming-25.5R Hold-20
Vermont-20.5Ind Sanders GAIN**
Maine-19R Hold-26
Indiana-17.5R Hold**
Mississippi-17R Hold-15.5
Utah-17R Hold-15.5
Tennessee-16.5R Hold-1.5
Texas-16.5R Hold-16
Ohio-12D GAIN6
We Have A Tie!
Rhode-8D GAIN3
Nevada-7.5R Hold-7
Pennsylvania-3D GAIN9
Montana-2D GAIN0.5
Virginia East-2D GAIN0.5
No swing at all
Washington Province0.15D hold9.5
Michigan1D hold8
Nebraska1D hold14
Missouri1.5D hold1.5
Joysey New1.5D hold4
Florida2.5D hold11
Minnesota3D hold10
Delaware6D hold20.5
Amsterdam New6D hold18
Arizona West9.5D hold12.5
Dakota North11.5D hold20
Mexico North12D hold20
Wisconsin12.5D hold18.5
Maryland13D hold5
Connecticut14.5CT For Lieberman GAIN**
Hawaii24D hold12
Virginia West29D hold15
Massachussetts30D hold19

Ind Sanders beat R by 33%; Indiana's R beat Libertarian by 74%; CT For Lieberman beat D by 10%. As Dr. Butler and Cllr. Boothroyd always point out, in a two-party system, swing involving a third party should be treated with extreme caution.

The Lower House

In the lower house swingometer, all seats are coloured. There have been significant boundary changes in Texas; owing to the asinine way that ridings are given numbers, not geographical names, it's very difficult to work out if these are comparable seats. Similarly, Louisiana 2 appears to have swapped names with Louisiana 7. The task is made even more difficult because the official maps have not been published on the interweb. Peter Snow never had this trouble...

There are (count 'em!) seventeen other gains from seats that didn't feature on the original swingometer, so let's relieve the Iconic Moment from the 1970 election programme, and add them in.

Lower House Swingometer, 2006 - Further D Gains
OfficialGeographic NameSwing RequiredSwing '08
Wisconsin 8Green Bay and Wisconsin North East-20+1
Florida 16Port Charlotte, Okeechobee West, Port St Lucie, and Wellington-18+0.5
Amsterdam New 19Port Jervis, Peerskill, and Arlington-17+1
Amsterdam New 20Hudson Valley-16.5+3
Florida 22Boca Raton Coastal-14+2
Pennsylvania 4Beaver Falls-13.5+2
Minnesota 1Hennepin and Anoka-12.5+3
Arizona 8 Cochise-12+6
Amsterdam New 24Amsterdam New Central-11.5+4.5
Arizona 5Phoenix North West-11+2.5
Arizona West 11Morgan Hill, Lodi, and Dublin-11+3
Connecticut 5Connecticut North West-11+6
Ohio 18Chillicothe, Zanesville, and Coshocton-11+12
Kentucky 3Louisville-11+1.5
Iowa 2Iowa South East-10+1
VermontVermont**+4.5
Pennsylvania 10Sunbury and Pennsylvania North East**+3
Original Swingometer Runs Out Here!
Illinois 11Bloomington, Kankakee, and Normal-95
Amsterdam New 13Staten Island-9-7
Carolina North 5Mount Airy and Statesville-9-7
Ohio 4Findlay, Sidney, and Mansfield-9-10
Pennsylvania 7Philadelphia West-96
Texas 19Abilene and Lubbock-9-19
Minnesota 2Faribault-8.5-8
Joysey New 5Joysey North-8.5-5.5
Virginia West 2Virginia West Central-8.5-7
Arkansas 2Little Rock and Arkansas Central-811
Michigan 11Wayne-8-5.5
Joysey New 7Joysey Straggly Bit in the Middle-8-0.5
Kansas 2Kansas East-7.52
Nevada 3Nevada South-7.50.5
Georgia 11Georgia Piece of Spaghetti Down the West Side-7-10
Texas 22Rosenberg-75
WyomingWyoming-6.5-0.8% (LATE)
Colorado 7Denver Outer and Adams-66.5
Illinois 6Chicago West-6-1
Iowa 1Iowa East-66
Texas 2Beaumont and Kingwood-6-16
Arizona West 26St Gabriel's Valley-5.5-9.5
Pennsylvania 8Buckinghamshire-5.51 (LATE)
We Have A Tie!
Florida 13Sarasota-5-0.5
Kentucky 4Kentucky North-5-3.5
Louisiana 2Louisiana South West-5**
Amsterdam New 29Hornell and Canandaigua-5-1
Carolina North 8Monroe and Laurinburg-5-0.2 (LATE)
Carolina North 11Carolina North West-54
Texas 32Jaedaville-5-8
Virginia East 2Chesapeake Bay-5-1
Indiana 2South Bend and Kokomo-4.54
Connecticut 2Connecticut East-40.05 (LATE)
Indiana 8Indiana South West-411
Minnesota 6St Cloud-4-4
Mexico New 1Albuquerque and Torrance-4-0.25 (LATE)
Colorado 4Colorado East-3-1.5
Washington Province 8Sammamish-2.5LATE
Connecticut 4Connecticut South West-2-1
Pennsylvania 6Reading and Norristown-1-1
Indiana 9Indiana South East-0.251.5
No swing at all
Louisiana 3Louisiana South East0.27.5
Amsterdam New 27Buffalo and Chautauqua129
Colorado 3Colorado West1.512
Texas 17Waco1.59
Georgia 12Athens, Augusta, and Savannah21
Illinois 8McHenry22.5
Dakota SouthDakota South3.520
Arizona West 20Fresno, Kings, and Kern4**
Missouri 3Jefferson and St Genevive419.5
Oregon 5Salem4.56.5
Indiana 7Indianapolis54
Iowa 3Iowa Central53
Kansas 3Kansas Kansas City615
Missouri 5Missouri Kansas City616
Amsterdam New 1Long Island East611
Tennesse 4Tennessee Mid616
Utah 2Utah South East611
Wisconsin 3Wisconsin South West615
Pennsylvania 13Philadelphia North East7.516
Mississippi 2Missisippi West8.514
Texas 15Texas Spaghetti South Central8.515.5
Carolina North 13Raleigh and Carolina North North914
Kentucky 6Kentucky Central9.5**
Maine 2Maine North9.521
Joysey New 12Joysey Straggly Bit a Bit Further South9.515

Vermont was won last time by an Independent; Sunbury and Pennsylvania NE was not seriously contested in 2004.

Louisiana SW does not bother with primaries; the top two candidates (both D) will meet in a run-off later in the month. Costa (D, Fresno, Kings, and Kern) was elected unopposed. Chandler (D, Kentucky Central) beat a Libertarian by 70%.