The FARCE Election 2006
The Swingometer After The Results
Both swingometers will measure the rising tide of Democrat support.
All results are as per CNN's website during the course of Wednesday morning. Though the results are not expected to change, the margins of victory probably will, and I shall update the margins once final results are declared late in the month. Goodness, can't these people organise an election yet..?
In the Upper House Swingometer, only gains are coloured.
| Province | Swing | Result | New margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | -35.5 | R Hold | -9 |
| Wyoming | -25.5 | R Hold | -20 |
| Vermont | -20.5 | Ind Sanders GAIN | ** |
| Maine | -19 | R Hold | -26 |
| Indiana | -17.5 | R Hold | ** |
| Mississippi | -17 | R Hold | -15.5 |
| Utah | -17 | R Hold | -15.5 |
| Tennessee | -16.5 | R Hold | -1.5 |
| Texas | -16.5 | R Hold | -16 |
| Ohio | -12 | D GAIN | 6 |
| We Have A Tie! | |||
| Rhode | -8 | D GAIN | 3 |
| Nevada | -7.5 | R Hold | -7 |
| Pennsylvania | -3 | D GAIN | 9 |
| Montana | -2 | D GAIN | 0.5 |
| Virginia East | -2 | D GAIN | 0.5 |
| No swing at all | |||
| Washington Province | 0.15 | D hold | 9.5 |
| Michigan | 1 | D hold | 8 |
| Nebraska | 1 | D hold | 14 |
| Missouri | 1.5 | D hold | 1.5 |
| Joysey New | 1.5 | D hold | 4 |
| Florida | 2.5 | D hold | 11 |
| Minnesota | 3 | D hold | 10 |
| Delaware | 6 | D hold | 20.5 |
| Amsterdam New | 6 | D hold | 18 |
| Arizona West | 9.5 | D hold | 12.5 |
| Dakota North | 11.5 | D hold | 20 |
| Mexico North | 12 | D hold | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 12.5 | D hold | 18.5 |
| Maryland | 13 | D hold | 5 |
| Connecticut | 14.5 | CT For Lieberman GAIN | ** |
| Hawaii | 24 | D hold | 12 |
| Virginia West | 29 | D hold | 15 |
| Massachussetts | 30 | D hold | 19 |
Ind Sanders beat R by 33%; Indiana's R beat Libertarian by 74%; CT For Lieberman beat D by 10%. As Dr. Butler and Cllr. Boothroyd always point out, in a two-party system, swing involving a third party should be treated with extreme caution.
The Lower House
In the lower house swingometer, all seats are coloured. There have been significant boundary changes in Texas; owing to the asinine way that ridings are given numbers, not geographical names, it's very difficult to work out if these are comparable seats. Similarly, Louisiana 2 appears to have swapped names with Louisiana 7. The task is made even more difficult because the official maps have not been published on the interweb. Peter Snow never had this trouble...
There are (count 'em!) seventeen other gains from seats that didn't feature on the original swingometer, so let's relieve the Iconic Moment from the 1970 election programme, and add them in.
| Official | Geographic Name | Swing Required | Swing '08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin 8 | Green Bay and Wisconsin North East | -20 | +1 |
| Florida 16 | Port Charlotte, Okeechobee West, Port St Lucie, and Wellington | -18 | +0.5 |
| Amsterdam New 19 | Port Jervis, Peerskill, and Arlington | -17 | +1 |
| Amsterdam New 20 | Hudson Valley | -16.5 | +3 |
| Florida 22 | Boca Raton Coastal | -14 | +2 |
| Pennsylvania 4 | Beaver Falls | -13.5 | +2 |
| Minnesota 1 | Hennepin and Anoka | -12.5 | +3 |
| Arizona 8 | Cochise | -12 | +6 |
| Amsterdam New 24 | Amsterdam New Central | -11.5 | +4.5 |
| Arizona 5 | Phoenix North West | -11 | +2.5 |
| Arizona West 11 | Morgan Hill, Lodi, and Dublin | -11 | +3 |
| Connecticut 5 | Connecticut North West | -11 | +6 |
| Ohio 18 | Chillicothe, Zanesville, and Coshocton | -11 | +12 |
| Kentucky 3 | Louisville | -11 | +1.5 |
| Iowa 2 | Iowa South East | -10 | +1 |
| Vermont | Vermont | ** | +4.5 |
| Pennsylvania 10 | Sunbury and Pennsylvania North East | ** | +3 |
| Original Swingometer Runs Out Here! | |||
| Illinois 11 | Bloomington, Kankakee, and Normal | -9 | 5 |
| Amsterdam New 13 | Staten Island | -9 | -7 |
| Carolina North 5 | Mount Airy and Statesville | -9 | -7 |
| Ohio 4 | Findlay, Sidney, and Mansfield | -9 | -10 |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Philadelphia West | -9 | 6 |
| Texas 19 | Abilene and Lubbock | -9 | -19 |
| Minnesota 2 | Faribault | -8.5 | -8 |
| Joysey New 5 | Joysey North | -8.5 | -5.5 |
| Virginia West 2 | Virginia West Central | -8.5 | -7 |
| Arkansas 2 | Little Rock and Arkansas Central | -8 | 11 |
| Michigan 11 | Wayne | -8 | -5.5 |
| Joysey New 7 | Joysey Straggly Bit in the Middle | -8 | -0.5 |
| Kansas 2 | Kansas East | -7.5 | 2 |
| Nevada 3 | Nevada South | -7.5 | 0.5 |
| Georgia 11 | Georgia Piece of Spaghetti Down the West Side | -7 | -10 |
| Texas 22 | Rosenberg | -7 | 5 |
| Wyoming | Wyoming | -6.5 | -0.8% (LATE) |
| Colorado 7 | Denver Outer and Adams | -6 | 6.5 |
| Illinois 6 | Chicago West | -6 | -1 |
| Iowa 1 | Iowa East | -6 | 6 |
| Texas 2 | Beaumont and Kingwood | -6 | -16 |
| Arizona West 26 | St Gabriel's Valley | -5.5 | -9.5 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Buckinghamshire | -5.5 | 1 (LATE) |
| We Have A Tie! | |||
| Florida 13 | Sarasota | -5 | -0.5 |
| Kentucky 4 | Kentucky North | -5 | -3.5 |
| Louisiana 2 | Louisiana South West | -5 | ** |
| Amsterdam New 29 | Hornell and Canandaigua | -5 | -1 |
| Carolina North 8 | Monroe and Laurinburg | -5 | -0.2 (LATE) |
| Carolina North 11 | Carolina North West | -5 | 4 |
| Texas 32 | Jaedaville | -5 | -8 |
| Virginia East 2 | Chesapeake Bay | -5 | -1 |
| Indiana 2 | South Bend and Kokomo | -4.5 | 4 |
| Connecticut 2 | Connecticut East | -4 | 0.05 (LATE) |
| Indiana 8 | Indiana South West | -4 | 11 |
| Minnesota 6 | St Cloud | -4 | -4 |
| Mexico New 1 | Albuquerque and Torrance | -4 | -0.25 (LATE) |
| Colorado 4 | Colorado East | -3 | -1.5 |
| Washington Province 8 | Sammamish | -2.5 | LATE |
| Connecticut 4 | Connecticut South West | -2 | -1 |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Reading and Norristown | -1 | -1 |
| Indiana 9 | Indiana South East | -0.25 | 1.5 |
| No swing at all | |||
| Louisiana 3 | Louisiana South East | 0.2 | 7.5 |
| Amsterdam New 27 | Buffalo and Chautauqua | 1 | 29 |
| Colorado 3 | Colorado West | 1.5 | 12 |
| Texas 17 | Waco | 1.5 | 9 |
| Georgia 12 | Athens, Augusta, and Savannah | 2 | 1 |
| Illinois 8 | McHenry | 2 | 2.5 |
| Dakota South | Dakota South | 3.5 | 20 |
| Arizona West 20 | Fresno, Kings, and Kern | 4 | ** |
| Missouri 3 | Jefferson and St Genevive | 4 | 19.5 |
| Oregon 5 | Salem | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Indiana 7 | Indianapolis | 5 | 4 |
| Iowa 3 | Iowa Central | 5 | 3 |
| Kansas 3 | Kansas Kansas City | 6 | 15 |
| Missouri 5 | Missouri Kansas City | 6 | 16 |
| Amsterdam New 1 | Long Island East | 6 | 11 |
| Tennesse 4 | Tennessee Mid | 6 | 16 |
| Utah 2 | Utah South East | 6 | 11 |
| Wisconsin 3 | Wisconsin South West | 6 | 15 |
| Pennsylvania 13 | Philadelphia North East | 7.5 | 16 |
| Mississippi 2 | Missisippi West | 8.5 | 14 |
| Texas 15 | Texas Spaghetti South Central | 8.5 | 15.5 |
| Carolina North 13 | Raleigh and Carolina North North | 9 | 14 |
| Kentucky 6 | Kentucky Central | 9.5 | ** |
| Maine 2 | Maine North | 9.5 | 21 |
| Joysey New 12 | Joysey Straggly Bit a Bit Further South | 9.5 | 15 |
Vermont was won last time by an Independent; Sunbury and Pennsylvania NE was not seriously contested in 2004.
Louisiana SW does not bother with primaries; the top two candidates (both D) will meet in a run-off later in the month. Costa (D, Fresno, Kings, and Kern) was elected unopposed. Chandler (D, Kentucky Central) beat a Libertarian by 70%.