The FARCE Election 2006
Thoughts, and a swingometer
How difficult can it be to produce a chart like this for the Failed American Republic Colony Expermient? Almost insanely difficult: there's no equivalent to David Boothroyd's Election Site, and all the online media coverage is chasing after polls, not giving the last time results. We've had to resort to the Wikipedia to provide historic results, and must take the usual pinch of salt.
Those who would like to see some hot five-way marginal action will be very disappointed; there are but two parties in serious contention for any seat, the Democrats (coloured blue), and the Corporatists (coloured red). In each case, the figure given is the lead that the Democrat candidate had over the Corporatists, in percentages, halved. For Corporatist-held seats, this number is negative.
Upper House
All of these seats were last contested in 2000. There have been no by-elections since.
| Province | Swing |
|---|---|
| Arizona | -35.5 |
| Wyoming | -25.5 |
| Vermont | -20.5 |
| Maine | -19 |
| Indiana | -17.5 |
| Mississippi | -17 |
| Utah | -17 |
| Tennessee | -16.5 |
| Texas | -16.5 |
| Ohio | -12 |
| Rhode | -8 |
| Nevada | -7.5 |
| Pennsylvania | -3 |
| Montana | -2 |
| Virginia East | -2 |
| No swing at all | |
| Washington | 0.15 |
| Michigan | 1 |
| Nebraska | 1 |
| Missouri | 1.5 |
| Joysey New | 1.5 |
| Florida | 2.5 |
| Minnesota | 3 |
| Delaware | 6 |
| Amsterdam New | 6 |
| Arizona West | 9.5 |
| Dakota North | 11.5 |
| Mexico North | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 12.5 |
| Maryland | 13 |
| Connecticut | 14.5 |
| Hawaii | 24 |
| Virginia West | 29 |
| Massachussetts | 30 |
Lower House
For some reason, the seats in the lower house have terribly boring names. It's as if Westminster seats were called Borders 2, not Tweeddale, Etterick, and Lauderdale. In an attempt to describe where the swingometer will be moving, I've given each seat a more geographical description. Where there's a sensible description for each seat, such as a big city or province plus compass point, I've used that; where there isn't, I've named after some of the more important towns or counties.
Of course, this rather falls foul of the somewhat bonkers seat distribution. Boundaries such as Georgia Piece of Spaghetti Down the West Side, Texas Spaghetti South Central, and the surreally-named Buckinghamshire are particularly bad examples of gerrymandering to reduce the number of competitive seats. It would be interesting to determine more sensible boundaries, then use data for each polling station to work out who is the real winner.
Anyway. These seats are vulnerable to swings of 10% in either direction.
| Official | Geographic Name | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois 11 | Bloomington, Kankakee, and Normal | -9 |
| Amsterdam New 13 | Staten Island | -9 |
| Carolina North 5 | Mount Airy and Statesville | -9 |
| Ohio 4 | Findlay, Sidney, and Mansfield | -9 |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Philadelphia West | -9 |
| Texas 19 | Abilene and Lubbock | -9 |
| Minnesota 2 | Faribault | -8.5 |
| Jersey New 5 | Jersey North | -8.5 |
| Virginia West 2 | Virginia West Central | -8.5 |
| Arkansas 2 | Little Rock and Arkansas Central | -8 |
| Michigan 11 | Wayne | -8 |
| Jersey New 7 | Jersey Straggly Bit in the Middle | -8 |
| Kansas 2 | Kansas East | -7.5 |
| Nevada 3 | Nevada South | -7.5 |
| Georgia 11 | Georgia Piece of Spaghetti Down the West Side | -7 |
| Texas 22 | Rosenberg | -7 |
| Wyoming | Wyoming | -6.5 |
| Colorado 7 | Denver Outer and Adams | -6 |
| Illinois 6 | Chicago West | -6 |
| Iowa 1 | Iowa East | -6 |
| Texas 2 | Beaumont and Kingwood | -6 |
| Arizona West 26 | St Gabriel's Valley | -5.5 |
| Pennsylvania 8 | Buckinghamshire | -5.5 |
| Florida 13 | Sarasota | -5 |
| Kentucky 4 | Kentucky North | -5 |
| Louisiana 7 | Louisiana South West | -5 |
| Amsterdam New 29 | Hornell and Canandaigua | -5 |
| Carolina North 8 | Monroe and Laurinburg | -5 |
| Carolina North 11 | Carolina North West | -5 |
| Texas 32 | Jaedaville | -5 |
| Virginia East 2 | Chesapeake Bay | -5 |
| Indiana 2 | South Bend and Kokomo | -4.5 |
| Connecticut 2 | Connecticut East | -4 |
| Indiana 8 | Indiana South West | -4 |
| Minnesota 6 | St Cloud | -4 |
| Mexico New 1 | Albuquerque and Torrance | -4 |
| Colorado 4 | Colorado East | -3 |
| Washington Province 8 | Sammamish | -2.5 |
| Connecticut 4 | Connecticut South West | -2 |
| Pennsylvania 6 | Reading and Norristown | -1 |
| Indiana 9 | Indiana South East | -0.25 |
| No swing at all | ||
| Louisiana 3 | Louisiana South East | 0.2 |
| Amsterdam New 27 | Buffalo and Chautauqua | 1 |
| Colorado 3 | Colorado West | 1.5 |
| Texas 17 | Waco | 1.5 |
| Georgia 12 | Athens, Augusta, and Savannah | 2 |
| Illinois 8 | McHenry | 2 |
| Dakota South | Dakota South | 3.5 |
| Arizona West 20 | Fresno, Kings, and Kern | 4 |
| Missouri 3 | Jefferson and St Genevive | 4 |
| Oregon 5 | Salem | 4.5 |
| Indiana 7 | Indianapolis | 5 |
| Iowa 3 | Iowa Central | 5 |
| Kansas 3 | Kansas Kansas City | 6 |
| Missouri 5 | Missouri Kansas City | 6 |
| Amsterdam New 1 | Long Island East | 6 |
| Tennesse 4 | Tennessee Mid | 6 |
| Utah 2 | Utah South East | 6 |
| Wisconsin 3 | Wisconsin South West | 6 |
| Pennsylvania 13 | Philadelphia North East | 7.5 |
| Mississippi 2 | Missisippi West | 8.5 |
| Texas 15 | Texas Spaghetti South Central | 8.5 |
| Carolina North 13 | Raleigh and Carolina North North | 9 |
| Kentucky 6 | Kentucky Central | 9.5 |
| Maine 2 | Maine North | 9.5 |
| Jersey New 12 | Jersey Straggly Bit a Bit Further South | 9.5 |
Some by-elections took place since the last general election. That's brought three more seats into our purview.
| California 48 | Laguna Beach | -8 |
| Ohio 2 | Ohio South | -2 |
| California 50 | St Diego North | -2 |
Both swingometers will measure the rising tide of Democrat support.