The Canadian Election 2006

Thoughts, and a swingometer

It's a difficult one to cover, is next Monday's Canadian election, not least because there are four parties contesting most seats. Oh, and because we're getting naff all coverage here in the UK. Readers will perhaps recall the difficulty Snowy had last May with his Election Triangle; his Canadian equivalent will have to cope work in four dimensions, perhaps five in Quebec.

A quick primer: Canada is split into 308 single-member constituencies, known as "ridings" It's the first-past-the-post system, the single candidate polling the most votes wins all. Each riding has around 85,000 electors each, making it slightly larger by population than rural constituencies in England and Scotland. The last re-distribution was completed in 2003, and came into effect for the 2004 election. Some ridings are larger than western Europe by size. Most of the ridings are contested by the governing Liberal party (colour: red), the opposition Conservatives (blue), the left-of-Liberal New Democratic Party (NDP, yellow), and the just-a-bit-further-left Green party (er, green). The Bloc Quebeçois (BQ or Bloc, blue-grey) contests all the seats in Quebec, but nothing elsewhere. One riding is represented by an independent MP, and there's the usual slew of fringe candidates.

Last time out, the Liberals took most of the seats in Atlantic Canada (NF (as was), NS, PE, NB). The Conservatives took some, the NDP one or two. The Bloc took most of the seats in Quebec, but the Liberals took Montreal and suburbs. The Liberals were popular in the urban seats in Toronto, the Conservatives took most of the rural fringe. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta went Conservative, apart from some Liberal outposts in the cities. Rural British Columbia also went Conservative, but the Liberals and NDP won in Vancouver and other large cities. The vote in Arctic Canada was split between the Liberals and NDP, though the Libs won most seats.

Why are we here? It all goes back to a scandal involving government money being channelled to advertising firms that supported the Liberals. The funds were supposed to be used to promote Canadian solidarity in Quebec. As is traditional in this sort of case, the Adscam is currently under investigation by a retired judge - John Gomery. His report is due to be released on 1 February, and it's to be hoped that he produces a fairer report than Brian Hutton in the UK. The original scandal erupted just before an election had to be held in summer 2004, depriving the Liberals of what had appeared an inevitable fourth win. Even so, it looked as though the combined weight of the Liberals and NDP would command an overall majority - that was dashed after three ridings in BC went to the Conservatives by slim margins. The result was a minority Liberal government, which fell on a no-confidence motion last November.

It's a truism that whoever wins Ontatio and Quebec wins the country as a whole. As such, concentrate on the ON and PQ marginals, and remember that the Bloc Quebecois is (effectively) the Conservative party in French, and can be expected to support them at this stage of the parliament. Robert MacKenzie, the grandfather of the swingometer, went on and on about how Canada had survived much of the sixties with minority governments, and I see that this decade could be more of the same.

I'm not particularly impressed with the CBC's very dry swingometer page - http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/analysiscommentary/swingridings.html We need graphics, or at least colours showing which parties are in contention where. Hang on, listen to some reminiscences while I bang something together...

Those who like their election history will seek parallels between Canada 06 and UK 79. In both cases, a minority left-wing government lost a confidence motion in the House, precipitating an early general election. In both cases, the opposition Conservative party struck out for a huge lead in the polls. I strongly suspect that the current polls, showing a strong Conservative lead, will result in something of a squeezing of the third-party vote, and a strengthening of the Liberal or NDP to stop the Tories. A similar bandwagon-backlash effect in '79 reduced Mrs Thatcher's majority from around 70 to 44.

With just under a week to go, the polls indicate the Conservatives will be the largest single party, and within a dozen seats of an overall majority. I reckon that the opposition will stage something of a comeback. Research shows that 55% of the undecideds won't vote Conservative because they don't know what the party stands for (are you listening, Mr Cameron?), and 67% won't vote Liberal because they're a bunch of crooks. These are very propitious circumstances for a third party, of which Canada has at least two. I very much doubt that prime minister Paul Martin will be able to secure a working majority in the house. He may, just, possibly, muster enough MPs to present a Speech From the Throne, and be defeated in the effective confidence motion afterwards, but I very much doubt it would get that far.

We might also seek parallels between the situation of the Liberals in 2004 and the UK Conservatives in 1992. Both times, the party had been in power for over a decade, and was beginning to look tired. John Major rode his luck to win a working majority in the UK; his Canadian counterpart didn't have such fortune. Had there been a UK election in autumn 1993, I expect John Smith would have won a small but workable majority. In the contemporary Canadian situation, that translates to a minority Conservative government. Which is what I expect.

Now then, I think the main attraction is ready. So, with great fanfare, I proudly present the Election 2006 Swingometer Chart.

Grief, that looks complex. It's not really, and it's very much helped by the fact that there's not a single three-way marginal on the board. Four columns of data; Lib-Con marginals on the left, then Lib-Bloc marginals, Lib-NDP, and NDP-Con. In the first three columns, the safe Liberal seats are at the bottom, the Liberal target seats are at the top. The Conservatives will be looking to press down in columns 1 and 4, move the black line downwards, and turn the red and yellow seats to blue. Similarly, the NDP will be looking to push down in column 3, and the Bloc in column 2.

Marginals at the 2006 (January) Canadian election

Liberal challenge to Conservative		Liberal challenge to Bloc Quebeçois		Liberal challenge to NDP		NDP challenge to Conservative
5.5	15. Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 5.5%*					5.4	14. Burnaby - New Westminster, BC (NDP) 5.4%
5.3	13. Brampton West, ON (Lib) 5.3%
5.2	12. Nipissing - Timiskaming, ON (Lib) 5.2%
5.1	11. Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale, ON (Lib) 5.1%	5.1	7. Beauce, QC (Lib) 5.1%*
5	10. Brant, ON (Lib) 5.0%	4.9	6. Brossard - La Prairie, QC (Lib) 4.9%
4.7	9. Ottawa - Orléans, ON (Lib) 4.7%			4.7	16. Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.7%
				4.1	15. Kenora, ON (Lib) 4.1%
3.6	8. North Vancouver, BC (Lib) 3.6%			3.9	14. Victoria, BC (Lib) 3.9%*
				3.1	11. Vancouver Kingsway, BC (Lib) 3.1%
2.6	7. Barrie, ON (Lib) 2.6%	2.5	5. Ahuntsic, QC (Lib) 2.5%
2.4	6. Ottawa West - Nepean, ON (Lib) 2.4%*	2.4	4. Brome - Missisquoi, QC (Lib) 2.4%	1.9	10. Hamilton Mountain, ON (Lib) 1.9%
1.4	5. Edmonton Centre, AB (Lib) 1.4%	1.8	3. Gatineau, QC (Lib) 1.8%	1.9	9. Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, ON (Lib) 1.9%
0.9	4. Chatham-Kent - Essex, ON (Lib) 0.9%*	1.1	2. Papineau, QC (Lib) 1.1%	1.6	8. Trinity - Spadina, ON (Lib) 1.6%
0.6	3. Northumberland - Quinte West, ON (Lib) 0.6%
0.3	2. Lambton - Kent - Middlesex, ON (Lib) 0.3%*
0.3	1. Edmonton - Mill Woods - Beaumont, AB (Lib) 0.3%*	0.2	1. Jeanne-Le Ber, QC (Lib) 0.2%	0.3	1. Western Arctic, NT (Lib) 0.3%
Liberal challenge to Conservative		Liberal challenge to Bloc Quebeçois		Liberal challenge to NDP		NDP challenge to Conservative
Conservative challenge to Liberal		Bloc Quebeçois challenge to Liberal		NDP challenge to Liberal		Conservative challenge to NDP
0.2	1. Simcoe - Grey, ON (Cons) 0.18%					0.3	2. New Westminster - Coquitlam, BC (Cons) 0.3%
0.4	2. Regina - Lumsden - Lake Centre, SK (Cons) 0.39%					0.4	3. Palliser, SK (Cons) 0.4%
0.4	3. Cambridge, ON (Cons) 0.43%
0.8	4. Kildonan - St. Paul, MB (Cons) 0.77%			0.8	5. Burnaby - New Westminster, BC (NDP) 0.79%	0.9	4. Vancouver Island North, BC (Cons) 0.9%
1.2	6. Saskatoon - Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.23%					1	5. Oshawa, ON (Cons) 1.0%
1.3	7. Newton - North Delta, BC (Cons) 1.26%*					1.1	6. Saskatoon - Humboldt, SK (Cons) 1.1%
1.3	8. Niagara West - Glanbrook, ON (Cons) 1.28%
1.3	9. Newmarket - Aurora, ON (Lib) 1.34%
1.6	10. Essex, ON (Cons) 1.61%			1.8	12. Sault Ste. Marie, ON (NDP) 1.75%	1.5	7. British Columbia Southern Interior, BC (Cons) 1.5%*
1.7	11. Charleswood - St. James - Assiniboia, MB (Cons) 1.74%	1.9	14. Chicoutimi - Le Fjord, QC (BQ) 1.89%	1.8	13. Timmins - James Bay, ON (NDP) 1.80%
2.2	17. Niagara Falls, ON (Cons) 2.21%	2.1	15. Abitibi - Baie-James - Nunavik - Eeyou, QC (BQ) 2.057%	2.1	16. Burnaby - Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.060%
2.5	19. Durham, ON (Cons) 2.48%			2.4	18. Halifax, NS (NDP) 2.43%
2.7	20. Oshawa, ON (Cons) 2.74%
2.8	21. West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country, BC (Cons) 2.78%*
3.3	22. Haldimand - Norfolk, ON (Cons) 3.30%					3.1	12. Regina - Qu'Appelle, SK (Cons) 3.1%
3.8	23. Dufferin - Caledon, ON (Cons) 3.80%					3.6	13. Newton - North Delta, BC (Cons) 3.6%*
4.3	24. St. John's South - Mount Pearl, NL (Cons) 4.31%
4.6	25. Wellington - Halton Hills, ON (Cons) 4.59%
4.8	26. St. John's East, NL (Cons) 4.75%
4.8	27. Prince Edward - Hastings, ON (Cons) 4.79%			5	28. Toronto - Danforth, ON (NDP) 5.00%
				5.1	29. Churchill (NDP) 5.08%
		5.5	30. Vaudreuil - Soulanges, QC (BQ) 5.50%
Conservative challenge to Liberal		Bloc Quebeçois challenge to Liberal		NDP challenge to Liberal		Conservative challenge to NDP

An asterisk indicates that the sitting MP will not be defending the seat. The ridings are numbered by their order of marginality within the party - so Burnaby is the 5th most marginal of all Liberal seats, though their most marginal against the NDP.

There's only so much I can put on the chart, and I've cut things off at a swing of 5.5%. Current projections suggest a slightly larger swing, so the chart won't cover all the marginal ridings. However, the polls in the campaign have swung wildly, suggesting that the answer to the question "Who should govern Canada" is "None of you lot." I'll stick with what will certainly be useful.

Most of the polls will close at 9.30 Eastern Time on Monday (2.30 GMT Tuesday.) Exceptions are polls on Newfoundland and Labrador (8.30 local, midnight GMT) and the Maritimes (8.30 local, 0.30 GMT), and in BC and the Yukon (7pm local, 3am GMT). According to the online schedules, CBC coverage will begin at 9pm Eastern, just before the results emerge. Unlike the UK, counting is done locally, rather than at one central counting point, so partial results will emerge during the night.

Coverage of the election night in the UK will be confined to updates on the BBC and CNN news bulletins. BBC Parliament has confirmed that it will not air the election night programme, either live or delayed.