A Glicko Sports Blog

Thu 19 Nov 2009

Les Irlandais le méritaient plus, l'arbitre a sauvé les tricolores

So, for the penultimate time, the results from the World Cup preparation.

Africa: Group E playoff
   Algeria 1-0 Egypt

Europe: playoffs
  Ukraine 0-1 Greece
Greece win 1:0 on aggregate

  Slovenia 1-0 Russia
2:2 on aggregate
Slovenia win 1:0 on away goals

Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-1 Portugal
  Portugal win 2:0 on aggregate

   France 0-1 Ireland
1-1 on aggregate
France win* 1-0 in extra time

Americas: playoffs
   Uruguay 1-1 Costa Rica
Uruguay win 2-1 on aggregate

Algeria qualified with a workmanlike victory, Greece with a chancer's goal, Slovenia with their late away goal on Saturday, and both Portugal and Uruguay ground out wins over slightly but clearly inferior opposition.

And then there was France, who qualified* after Thierry Henry openly handled the ball, tipped it to William Gallas, who scored* the winner* that has put France through*. It's been compared to Diego Maradona's goal* against England in 1986; by refusing to acknowledge that he had broken the rules, Henry joined the ranks of the contemptable cheats. The Football Association of Ireland has lodged a formal protest against last night's result*, citing FIFA's example of overturning a result in the play-offs for 2006. Unless they qualify on sporting merit, rather than being better cheaters than Ireland, we'll be marking France's progress* in the world cup with the infamous Asterisk of Not Strictly True.

The presumptive qualifiers

We're assuming that FIFA will seed the hosts, defending champions, and six more sides, then split the remaining teams along geographic lines. Europe fills one pot exactly. Africa sends five teams, Asia four, Oceania one, so while we've paired Africa with South America, it's possible that Africa may end up with North America. Here's the line-up we expect to see on 4 December.

Pot 1 - seeds South Africa (hosts), France* (defending champs), Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina.
Pot of Europe Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia.
Pot of Africa / South America Ghana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile.
Pot of Asia / CONCACAF PR Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, DPR Korea, Mexico, FARCE, Honduras

We've put Asia with CONCACAF to roughly equalise the strength of the sides, and to avoid a Group of Pisseasy: Spain, Slovenia, DPR Korea, Honduras. Quite how Spain would mess up that group is beyond us. There are chances of two minnows being drawn together, but if Africa and South America are paired, three is unlikely.

The draw takes place on 4 December, coverage begins on BBC2 at 5.15 - expect the main action from 6pm.

linkpage | EuropeanResults

Sun 15 Nov 2009

Marking your card for the season

The weekend's televised games were as follows:

But what of TCU - Utah? Not to be found on the telly. Why not? Oh no, can't be arsed to show the biggest game of the weekend, that might actually be something interesting, and we can't have interesting unless it's sanitised and homogonised and coming from the sides we've already approved of. Remember what the E in our name stands for? Entertainment, and it comes before Sport.

What a complete waste of everyone's time. Why oh why oh why does The Goofy Channel continue to eschew the big and important games in favour of meaningless piffle involving fashionable sides? This was TCU and Utah's week, and they completely missed it. Dunderheads.

It's not as though they might have the excuse for long - the rumour at the moment is that the MW has invited Boisestate, Nevada, and Fresnostate to join their ranks. That would make a 12-team division, with the additional sides in 7th, 44th, and 45th prior to this week's matches. Six sides in the top 45 is as good as any of the other formal BCS divisions, and the argument for the MW to go straight into the top ten as of right would be unstoppable.

The big ones

SE: #1 Florida 24 South Carolina 14
BT: #2 Texas 47 Baylor 14
SE: #3 Alabama 31 Mississippi St. 3
MW: #4 TCU 55 v #7 Utah 28
BE: #5 Cincinnati 24 v #17 West Virginia 21
WA: #6 Boise St. 63 Idaho 25
PX: #30 Stanford 55 v #8 SCALF 21
BX: #14 Ohio St. 3 v #9 Iowa 0 (AET: 24-24 after hour)
..: #10 LSU 24 Louisiana Tech 16

Other top 30 matches
BT: #15 Oklahoma St. 24 v #27 Texas Tech 17
PX: #25 California 24 v #22 Arizona 16
BE: #28 Rutgers 31 v #26 South Florida 0

Yadda yadda yadda. We really couldn't give a stuff about Florida's latest tedious victory in a match that held no meaning for either side. Ditto Alabama. Texas did at least have a scent of lossing before playing Baylor. But the week's big match was over at TCU territory, where they pummelled Utah in a match we'd like to have seen, but didn't, because the monopoly television provider receives the order of the brown nose from the dull-as-ditchwater sides. Nor did we get to see the title eliminator in the BE, where Cincinnati ended the title hopes of WVirg, setting up a winner-takes-all decided in December. Bet we won't be allowed to see that, either.

Elsewhere, Boise continued its campaign to get into the Top Ten, and they received a big boost with SCALF's third defeat of the season, effectively eliminating that side from top ten contention. Ohio Province and Iowa couldn't be split in their game, and the extra time resolved in Ohio's favour. Lucky.

Upset-o-meter

Off the scale: TCU-Utah 0 ESPN minus several million
38.8- Central Florida 37 v #11 Houston 32
32.1- #30 Stanford 55 v #8 SCALF 21
30.9- North Carolina 33 v #23 Miami 24

Have we made our point? Actually, a very quiet week in the search for upsets, Houston's second defeat in a row means they're not necessarily going to their divisional final, and Miamiflorida's loss is just embarrassing.

Local derbies

#30 Stanford 55 v #8 SCALF 21
#25 California 24 v #22 Arizona 16
Western Michigan 35 Eastern Michigan 14
Air Force 45 UNLV 17
Bowling Green 35 Miami (Ohio) 14

Lower leagues

Minnesota were run close by South Dakota Territory, ekeing out a 16-13 victory. Montana has the only perfect record in Division II, beating N Colorado 38-10; Butler's unblemished card was ruined by a 36-7 defeat at Jacksonville. With just one round of regular-season matches to go, the play-off picture is becoming a little clearer. Here are the automatic qualifiers:

Additionally, eight sides are selected primarily (but not solely) on their win-loss records. One-loss sides Richmond and William & Mary will surely qualify alongside Villanova, but Butler of the Pioneer League won't get in, as that college doesn't offer scholarships. The two-loss sides are New Hampshire (CAA), Liberty (Big South), Old Dominion (ind), Lafayette, Colgate (both Pat Riot), Elon (Southern), and McNeese State (Southland). Though these could all qualify, selection is done by selection, and there are reasonable claims for three-loss Eastern Washington (Big Sky) and S Dakota Territory (MV). Eight from those eleven, most likely. Central Connecticut (Northeast) and Pennsylvania (Ivy) also have two losses, but neither conference traditionally participates in the play-off. We should know more after next week's matches.

Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf    R      RD
==============================================================
 1    1    1   FLORD   SE   1316   119.4   Florida
 3    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1309   118.4   Texas
10    4    3   TCU     MW*  1292   117.6   Texas Christian
11    3    4   ALABM   SE   1282   113.8   Alabama
13    5    5   CINCI   BE   1259   117.1   Cincinnati
 7    6    6   BSEST   WA*  1250   118.9   Boise State
32   13    7   PITTS   BE   1200   114.2   Pittsburgh
12   12    8   OREGN   PX   1197   114.2   Oregon
25   10    9   LSU     SE   1195   114.7   Louisiana Purchase
 9   14   10   OHIST   BX   1193   111.2   Ohio Province
27   15   11   OKLST   BT   1190   113.3   Oklahoma Territory
 4    7   12   UTAH    MW*  1185   116.6   Utah
39   16   13   GEOTC   AC   1179   112.7   Georgia Tech
37    9   14   IOWA    BX   1172   113.6   Iowa
 2    8   15   SCALF   PX   1160   114.2   Southern California
 8   18   16   PENST   BX   1157   113.6   Penn Province
21   21   17   NBRSK   BT   1153   111.0   Nebraska
16   19   18   ORGST   PX   1151   113.7   Oregon Territory
19   20   19   BYU     MW*  1140   116.2   Brigham Young
50   11   20   HOUST   CU*  1138   113.6   Houston
34   28   21   RUTGR   BE   1132   120.7   Rutgers
22   25   22   CALIF   PX   1131   113.9   California
18   24   23   VTECH   AC   1129   113.3   Virginia Tech
71   30   24   STANF   PX   1128   113.6   Stanford
14   17   25   WVIRG   BE   1126   114.7   W Virginia
42   31   26   WISCO   BX   1110   114.3   Wisconsin
29   33   27   MISIP   SE   1105   118.3   Mississippi
 5   39   28   OKLAH   BT   1092   113.6   Oklahoma
 6   41   29   GRGIA   SE   1090   116.2   Georgia
61   35   30   CMICH   MA*  1088   116.6   Central Michigan

TCU's big victory lifts them up into third place, and makes them serious challengers if two of the three anointed contenders lose in their remaining fixtures. Unlikely, but possible. Pittsburgh's big climb to seventh owes more to the sides above them losing, and playing slightly more taxing opponents than Oregon - Notre Dame as opposed to Arizona Province. For the first time in Glickoblog's five years, we won't be recording SCALF in the top ten, and nor will Houston get there. Out of the top 30 go Arizona (22-31), Miamiflorida (23-35), Texas College of Technology (27-39 after losing to Oklahoma Territory), S Florida (26-42), and Troy (29-43 after defeat to Arkansas). The results mean that last year's top ten are all back in this year's top 30.

Playing out the season

Here are the permutations for the various conferences:

Who goes to the top ten?

We still think that if Texas and the SE champion is unbeaten, they will duke it out for the title between them. Should any lose in the regular season, or Texas lose its title match (presumably to Kansas P), then TCU has an almost unarguable case for inclusion. The main argument would come if Cincinnati were to win its remaining fixtures. The AC will send one side and no-one else, the PX will send its champion, the BX will send Ohio Province. The two remaining spots we see as between the BE loser (we're assuming Pittsburgh), a second BT side (Oklah T), possibly Oregon as the runner-up to Arizona from the PX. However, should Boise finish unbeaten and two of those other possibles fall through, there will be a terrific case to send Boise State to the top ten. Our list at the moment, with wild-cards in italics:

The fixtures

Top Ten

..: #1 FLORD v FLINT (3.30)
BT: #2 TEXAS v KANSS (tbc)
MW: #3 TCU v WYOMG (7pm)
..: #4 ALABM v Chattanooga (5.21)
  #5 CINCI -- no match
WA: #6 BSEST at UTHST (2.30am Sat)
  #7 PITTS -- no match
PX: #8 OREGN at ARIZN (tbc)
SE: #9 LSU at #27 MISIP (8.30)
BX: #10 OHIST at MICH (5pm, live)

Other Top 30 match

PX: #24 STANF v #22 CALIF (12.30am)

Key divisional matches

BT: #17 NBRSK v KNSST (12.45am Sun)
PX: #18 ORGST at WASST (tbc)
AC: CLEMS v VIRGI (tbc)
AC: BOSCL v NCARO (tbc)
CU: UCF v TULNE (7pm)
CU: UAB at ECARL (8.30)
CU: SMISS v TULSA (12 mdnt)
SB: TROY v FLATL (9.15)

Other televised match

BT: #11 OKLST v COLRD (12.30am Fri, live)

Three other slots remain to be filled - a live match at 8.30 (who said LSU - Mississippi?), and taped games at 10 and 12.30 (0730 Sun and 0430 Mon CET). What are the dullest, most boring, most pointless ways of filling those slots? No danger of the Oregon match, no chance of the Stanford game, our money's on Texas, and Colorado State -v- New Mexico (11pm), because one of them should have won the game by the time we go to press next Sunday afternoon. Maybe.

linkpage | NCAA

Play-off time
World Cup Qualification Playoffs
   New Zealand 1-0 Bahrain 
-- New Zealand win 1-0 on aggregate

     Russia 2-1 Slovenia 
     Greece 0-0 Ukraine 
    Ireland 0-1 France 
   Portugal 1-0 Bosnia-Herzegovina 

 Costa Rica 0-1 Uruguay

World Cup Qualification CAF 2nd stage grp. A
   Morocco 0-2 Cameroon 
      Togo 1-0 Gabon 
Final: cm 13 ga 9 tg 8 ma 3
-- Cameroon qualifies

World Cup Qualification CAF 2nd stage grp. B
        Kenya 2-3 Nigeria 
   Mozambique 1-0 Tunisia 
Final: ng 12 tn 11 mz 7 ke 3
-- Nigeria qualifies

World Cup Qualification CAF 2nd stage grp. C
   Rwanda 0-0 Zambia 
    Egypt 2-0 Algeria 
After 6: dz 13 eg 13 zm 5 rw 2

World Cup Qualification CAF 2nd stage grp. D
   Sudan 1-2 Benin 
   Ghana  -  Mali
After 6: gh* 12 bj 10 ml* 8 sd 1
Ghana qualifies

World Cup Qualification CAF 2nd stage grp. E
    Burkina Faso 1-0 Malawi 
   Cote d'Ivoire 3-0 Guinea
Final: ci 16 bf 12 mw 4 gn 3
Cote d'Ivoire qualify

In the Eastern play-off, New Zealand scored just before half time, and saved a penalty kick after the interval, so they're going to the finals. It's the second appearance for the Kiwis, and the first time since 1978 that no side from the Middle East makes the finals.

Very little advantage gained in any of the play-offs in Europe: France the only side to consolidate their position, while history suggests Ukraine has the advantage in their return leg. Uruguay also takes a slim advantage in the Western play-off.

Africa provided the most interesting results yesterday, though Group D was resolved last month, and Group E was only playing for Cup of Nations spots. The expected permutation unfolded in Group A, where Cameroon confirmed their qualification, and booted Morocco out of next year's Cup of Nations; Togo's victory would have made the other match irrelevant for either competition. Group B had different leaders almost every time we looked, a draw would not have sufficed for Nigeria, and it wasn't until seven minutes from time that Obafemi Martins scored his second goal, Nigeria's third; Dario broke the deadlock in Maputo a few seconds later, and Nigeria were in there. The inevitable mess in Group C: Algeria and Egypt finish with +4=1-1 records, scored 9 and conceded 4, and both have 2-0 home wins against each other. They'll play again in Sudan on Wednesday, where extra time and kicks from the penalty mark are prepared.

linkpage | Results

Fri 13 Nov 2009

The Plight of Derry City, the Atlantic League

We very much regret to report the death of Robert Enke, goalkeeper for Hannover and Germany. On the pitch, he was a model professional; off of it, his life was blighted by tragedy.

Copa del Rey, round of 32, return leg
Selected results
Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Valencia (II) 2:2
  Rayo win 4:2 on aggregate
Tenerife - Celta Vigo (II) 0:1
  Celta win 3:1 on aggregate
Real Madrid - Alcorcóon 1:0
  Alcorcóon win 4:1 on aggregate
  Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

FA Cup, round of 256 replay
Rochdale - Luton 0:2

The latter match was televised on ITV4, except that no-one actually bothered to advertise it, so we missed it. Well done, everybody.

The regular season ended in Ireland last weekend. Bohemians were confirmed as champions, Shamrock Rovers and Cork City qualify directly for the European League. The cup final will be contested this weekend between Sligo Rovers and second-division Sporting Fingal. UCD will be promoted to the top division next season, along with the winners of a play-off between Sporting Fingal and Bray Wanderers. Though Drogheda finished bottom of Division I, they were reprieved to the relegation play-off when Derry City were thrown out of the league.

Thereby hangs a tale. Players at Derry City were found to have signed two contracts, one declared to the League of Ireland, and a second under-the-counter payment. It's the offence for which English club Swindle Town were denied promotion to League Division I in 1990. The whole matter wouldn't have come to light if it wasn't for the recession; Derry found itself breaching the League of Ireland's 60% wage cap, found itself unable to meet its enhanced outgoings. The chairman and board have resigned, and Derry will have to grovel to play in the second division next season. Amongst the possible opponents are Shelbourne, administratively relegated a couple of seasons back after breaching the LoI's wage cap, and runners-up (but losers of the play-off) this season.

The question has been asked: should there be an all-Ireland league in football, as there is in rugby? Inevitably, the league would be dominated by sides from the 26 Counties: a 16-team league could be expected to comprise most of the top flight in the south and the top five or six sides in the north. More tellingly, European results and the Setanta Cup suggest that the best sides from the Republic are a cut above the champions from the North, suggesting that typically three of the four European spots will be filled by sides from Eire. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, and an all-Ireland football league looks unlikely.

On a similar tack, clubs in England's Division I have been spending time discussing whether to let Celtic and Rangers join their league. The discussion was prompted, as ever, by the Bolton Wanderers chairman, for whom Glasgow is as handy as London and a darned sight cheaper. Almost inevitably, the clubs rejected the idea; depending on implementation, it would cost two of them their place in the league, or would dilute their television revenue, or would set up a Division I II that no-one would be terribly interested in.

Rangers and Celtic are said to be considering the old Atlantic League idea that surfaced in 2000. That would be similar to the Celtic League of rugby, except centred on the North Sea rather than the Irish Sea. Leading clubs from Scotland, the Netherlands, Belgium, and possibly Denmark would leave their national leagues and form a new cross-border competition. The major stumbling block was UEFA's petty insistence that the national league was sacrosanct, and it would not recognise the competition for qualification.

Were the competition to be compiled now, we reckon the constituent clubs would be:

Scotland - Rangers, Celtic, Hibs (Hearts, Aberdeen into a play-off)
Belgium - Bruges, Anderlecht, Liege (Gent, +1?)
Netherlands - PSV, Ajax, Twente, AZ Alkmaar, Heerenveen (NAC, Feyenoord)
Denmark - Copenhagen, Brondby, Odense (Aalborg, Randers)

Suppose a 16-side league with Hearts and Feyenoord winning the play-off places. The UEFA co-efficients for these sides in the five years to May 2009 would be 37.35, qualifying the nominal nation in about ninth place. That's two places in the contest no-one watches, three in the European League, and we can reasonably assume that the other sides would be competing in their national cups with some qualifying. Of course, this would reduce the rankings of the remaining competitions - Denmark and Belgium would slide down to about 30th, the Dutch and Scots wouldn't be much better. The net effect would be to increase the number of sides competing, but not by all that much. Logistically, it's possible. Whether there's the political will...

To square the circle, we don't think Ireland's top clubs are up to this standard yet; the best would struggle in the Eredivisie, and would be bottom-half in Division A. That's not to exclude them from calculations of an Atlantic League Two.

Europe's Top 22

01 +1 CHE   en   1297   98.0
02 -1 BAR   es   1266   95.6
03 -- MUN   en   1242   96.6
04 +2 ANL   en   1219   92.8
05 +4 INT   it   1214   91.4
06 -2 SEV   es   1213   94.5
07 -2 RMD   es   1202   95.2
08 +6 SHA   ua   1182  107.2
09 -2 BDX   fr   1179   95.1
10 +1 JVE   it   1156   91.7
11 re ACM   it   1151   91.2
12 +5 VAL   es   1148   94.3
13 -5 LYN   fr   1146   91.9
14 +2 PTO   pt   1137  116.6
15 ** PAN   gr   1117  104.2
16 +2 FIO   it   1107   89.2
17 ** DEP   es   1104   95.1
18 +2 WER   de   1103   91.7
19 +3 MAL   es   1101   95.7
20 -1 BAY   de   1098   90.4
21 -9 KYV   ua   1098  105.9
22 ** FEN   tr   1094  118.4

Changes against 9 October. Out go Liverpool S (10-26), Atletico Madrid (15-39), Hamburg (17-31), Roma (21-44). Villarreal, Genoa, Marseille, Wolfsburg, and Rangers still haven't returned, though Marseille are within five points of Fenehbache. AC Berlusconi show their September dip was a dip, as Liverpool may demonstrate next month.

National rankings


01 +1 es   1186.3 (- 18.3)
02 -1 en   1183.8 (- 21.7)
03 .. it   1138.6 (+ 20.7)
04 .. fr   1101.7 (-  2.7)
05 .. de   1086.3 (-  4.9)
06 +1 nl   1003.3 (+ 10 2)
07 -1 pt    999.5 (+  6.8)
08 .. ru    993.3 (+  7.1)
09 .. gr    942.9 (-  5.0)
10 +1 ro    878.7 (-  9.1)
11 -1 sc    878.6 (- 12.6)
12 .. cz    855.2 (+ 18.7)
13 .. no    817.7 (+  1.8)



Spain return to the top for the first time this season, the Dutch use their European success to power ahead of Portugal, and Romania's champ beat Scotland's in head-to-head contests, so it's fitting that the national scores reflect that.


linkpage | EuropeanTables