Fri 02 Nov 2007
NCAA: marginal strengths
Regular correspondent Mr. Pokery wrote the following after last Sunday's NCAA wrap.
Your data tends to support the strength of the SEC, with eight teams currently headed for, at worst, half-decent bowls. (If anything, you tend to do so less strongly than other pundits, with the SEC returning seven teams in some top 25s on more than one occasion this season, which is apparently remarkably high.)
Readers will know our position on human polls: they are a valid measure of which sides are popular and fashionable, but are of little value to determine which sides are actually best. We would also point out that a lot of the big sides have yet to play each other, and their +6-2 records mostly come from beating up the small sides. This factor will disappear as the season unwinds.
I enjoy comparing your standings with the different polls used in the BCS standings. My gut feeling, without having formally performed comparisons, is that your poll has most in sympathy with the RB computer rankings, whatever they are.
One of the things we did for our own interest late last year was to work out the average difference between Glickoblog rankings and each of the computer rankings used for the BCS. And, indeed, the average difference between each of those rankings. RB is Billingsley, by the way...
(goes off and bumps into Spearman's Rank Correlation).
Two figures for each of the BCS components: the ρ of how much we agree with their complete list, and of how much we agree with their top 25.
Andersen 0.9374 0.4582
Billingsley 0.9640 0.8246
Colley 0.9284 0.5693
Massey 0.9236 0.5040
Sagarin 0.9046 0.4873
Wolfe 0.9229 0.4152
For the latter comparison, we disregard teams that each ranking puts outside its top 25, and all the sides that Glickoblog ranks outside the top 25 are deemed to be of rank 26. Original data from Massey
Yes, it appears that the Glickoblog rankings do correspond much more closely with Billingsley's than any other, including the Sagarin-ELO method, which one might naively expect to closely match. Why is this happening? Billingsley no longer publishes any detail of his algorithm, and the previously-posted description was long on waffle and short on detail. From the description, and observing the progress of Notre Dame (bottoming out in the 50s) we suspect that his formula is approximately replicating a Glicko system, albeit through a different method.
We'll return to this matter at the end of the regular season.
I'd love to see more analysis of just how crazy seasons' results are in comparison to each other, for reasonable-looking craziness metrics other than "number of #2 seeds upset".
At this point we tickle the soft underbelly of the Upset-o-meter, and ask it to fetch some wrapped sweets. Define your definition of upset - we propose 30 points as a minor upset, 35 as a moderate, 40 as a major - and simply count.
Another gut feeling of mine suggests that you may need to increase the number of idle weeks used in the re-rankings between the 2007 and 2008 seasons substantially even over the number used between 2006 and 2007.
We will see when the season ends: maybe reducing the spread to ±1.5σ will also help to produce more credible results. We should remember this: the Glicko system derives most of its data from the last dozen or so matches. At present, the pundits are basing their information on about seven data points per side, as if the previous years counted for nothing. We disagree here: many of the players and coaches remain in place, and successful sides in previous years are able to attract weaker opposition, and schedule more home matches than away ones. This disparity needs to be included, and we reckon the best way is to carry over some hard facts from last year. How much? Maybe less than we did this year, in turn less than we did last year.
A link I've been saving for you for some time, comparing the perceived advantages and disadvantages of computer and human rankings. Another gut feeling (for gut feelings are easy in a way that reasoned arguments are not) is that margins of victory *are* important, somehow, though I'm prepared to concede that this might just be a prejudice against throwing away even a single scrap of data... :-)
The trouble with imposing a margin-of-victory criterion is that it creates an artificial boundary condition, one that simply isn't present in the actual game as it's played on the field. Suppose that a side is leading 31:7 half-way through the third period. Which is the more valuable win: their opponent recovering to win 34:31, the side surviving a recovery to win 31:28, the sides continuing to score as they did, finishing 41:10, or the side extending their lead to win 63:10? Do we decide that games decided by more than two clear tries are worthy of bonus points, as the IRB does? Do we award partial credit for games decided by six or fewer points? Ultimately, margin of victory requires a value judgement: it insists that some wins are more valuable than others, yet there is no consensus on the value matrix to be used. Indeed, there cannot be such a consensus opinion.
We have considered splitting the points for games won in extra time (say 3/4 to the winner, 1/4 to the loser), for this does actually reflect the game as it's played on the field. Discarding margin of victory does reduce the amount of data, but we cannot actually see any value in using that particular datum, and suspect that it might actually be harmful to a sound ranking.
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Sun 04 Nov 2007
NCAA week 10
Most Successful Religious Institution Of The Year
#107 Temple 7 vs. Ohio 23
Though TEMPL's late surge for a post-season game looks to have come unstuck - this was the side's sixth defeat - they've still climbed an awfully long way in a few weeks. And accumulated more wins than the Parisian cathedral.
Margin of Victory Watch
Nebraska 39 vs. #16 Kansas 76
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31
In the Glicko ranking system, we deem all wins to be equal. As we discussed on Friday, there are arguments to consider margin of victory. In these two matches, the winning side scored roughly twice as many points as their opposition. Should a ranking system reward Kansas for scoring a point-and-a-quarter per minute? Reward Nebraska for scoring so many points? Penalise Kansas for conceding so many? Reward Kansas Province for pulling back to within respectability? Reward Iowa Province for hanging on in the teeth of fierce opposition? Reward Iowa for overcoming such difficult opposition? Discuss. Show your working.
Swiss System Watch
#23 Clemson 47 vs. #112 Duke 10
#110 Louisiana-Lafayette 7 vs. #22 Tennessee 59
#97 Akron 20 vs. #96 Bowling Green 44
We still think that sides should adopt a Swiss scheme to schedule their matches: pick their opponents for the first four games, another one in the middle, the last match, and name their bye weeks, then use some clever algorithm to match sides at a similar level to play each other two weeks hence. It couldn't be less one-sided than this lot.
Who Have App State Wofford Elon Beaten This Week?
X- Elon 49 vs. Furman 52
Bring out the signwriters.
Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?
#119 Fla. International 24 vs. Arkansas St. 27
The worst team in the current Glickoblog rankings almost pulled off the upset of the century, keeping Arkansas Purchase to within three points. Carry on like this and they might actually finish at +1-11.
Utterly Rubbish Team Almost Wins Game!
Navy 46 vs. Notre Dame 44
Stale magazine published some numbers this week. Apparently, NOTDM has the worst ground attack in the league. If it were twice as good, it would still only be 117th best. Still, being sunk by only two points almost counts as an improvement; being the only thing the Navy's sunk this year might not.
Last Week's Top Ten
#14 Wisconsin 17 vs. #1 Ohio St. 38
#2 LSU 41 vs. #35 Alabama 34
41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
#4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
#31 Texas A&M 14 vs. #5 Oklahoma 42
#6 Virginia West - no match
#26 Oregon St. 3 vs. #7 Southern Cal 24
#8 Arizona St. 23 vs. #9 Oregon 35
#10 Texas 38 vs. Oklahoma St. 35
All eyes were on Oregon for the match of the day, and Arizona Province came away with their first defeat of the season. Ohio Province won the big early match, downing Wisconsin without breaking sweat, but LSU had a tricky task against Alabama. Upset of the day came as BOSCL also lost their unbeaten record, going down to the maddeningly inconsistent FLAST; this game was played in the teeth of hurricane Noel, allowing FLAST to wear their dazzling shirts. Michigan nearly suffered their third humiliation of the season, leaving it late to beat the Provincial side. Texas also found the going tough against Oklahoma Territory, though the A and M department was no match for Oklahoma. SCALF won, restoring normal service.
Other Top 40 Matches
#12 Virginia Tech 27 vs. #30 Georgia Tech 3
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17
#24 Purdue 19 vs. #21 Penn St. 26
The Upset-o-meter
41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
38- #29 UCLA 27 vs. Arizona 34
38- Wyoming 24 vs. San Diego St. 27
35- N.C. State 19 vs. Miami 16
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31
33- UTEP 48 vs. #100 Rice 56
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17
Three more matches to add to the pile of 35-point upsets; UCLA's defeat sends them spinning out of the top 40.
Provincial Championships
#4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
X- S. Illinois 10 vs. W. Illinois 9
Army 10 vs. Air Force 30
Matches That We'll Explain Shortly
#99 Buffalo 28 vs. #95 Miami (Ohio) 31
#50 New Mexico 0 vs. #48 TCU 37
TCU's win gives them a stronger position to win the Mountain-West title.
Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
2 1 1 OHIST BX 1434 116.8 0 Ohio Province
4 2 2 LSU SE 1376 112.3 0 Louisiana Territory
9 5 3 OKLAH BT 1326 109.1 0 Oklahoma
12 4 4 MICH BX 1320 110.1 0 Michigan
1 7 5 SCALF PX 1306 115.1 0 Southern California
32 9 6 OREGN PX 1299 103.3 0 Oregon
10 6 7 WVIRG BE 1295 119.9 1 W Virginia
19 3 8 BOSCL AC 1281 112.8 0 Boston College
5 10 9 TEXAS BT 1278 110.2 0 Texas
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1268 105.9 0 Michigan 2
11 12 10 VTECH AC 1261 111.3 0 Virginia Tech
3 13 11 FLORD SE 1246 109.8 0 Florida
13 11 12 BSEST WA* 1244 104.3 0 Boise State
36 8 13 ARZST PX 1242 102.6 0 Arizona Province
53 16 14 KANSS BT 1230 105.5 0 Kansas
18 15 15 GRGIA SE 1229 108.4 0 Georgia
38 18 16 MISRI BT 1224 105.9 0 Missouri
8 17 17 AUBRN SE 1209 110.4 1 Auburn
7 14 18 WISCO BX 1204 110.0 0 Wisconsin
17 21 19 PENST BX 1203 103.6 0 Penn Province
15 20 20 CALIF PX 1193 105.8 0 California
30 22 21 TENSE SE 1176 102.8 0 Tennessee
34 23 22 CLEMS AC 1166 107.4 0 Clemson
23 19 23 WAKEF AC 1162 102.8 0 Wake Forest
21 25 24 BYU MW* 1161 110.8 0 Brigham Young
39 27 25 HAWII WA* 1149 124.9 1 Hawaii
54 28 26 KNTCY SE 1147 110.2 1 Kentucky
56 37 27 VIRGI AC 1142 99.4 0 Virginia
27 26 28 ORGST PX 1134 103.1 0 Oregon Territory
45 24 29 PRDUE BX 1134 99.7 0 Purdue
24 36 30 TXSTC BT 1131 105.1 0 Texas Tech
The top spot looks set to be decided, albeit indirectly, by the match between Ohio Province and Michigan two weeks hence. A win for Ohio should confirm them as number 1, and invite the championship match against LSU or Oklahoma. Lose, and the cat enters the flock of pigeons. Lower down, we find Boise State looming outside the top ten: we'll discuss the WAC in a moment.
The See You Jimmy Division
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
66 52 50 ECARL CU 1057 106.1 0 E Carolina
55 57 56 HOUST CU 1025 102.5 1 Houston
59 61 58 TULSA CU 1022 106.1 0 Tulsa
96 71 63 UCF CU 1006 103.6 0 Central Florida
58 75 78 SMISS CU 933 106.2 0 S Mississippi
85 78 84 UTEP CU 878 104.3 0 Texas El Paso
72 100 92 RICE CU 840 106.4 0 Rice
103 98 99 MEMPH CU 798 104.7 0 Memphis
92 104 104 MARSL CU 764 110.2 0 Marshall
79 109 108 SMU CU 747 105.2 1 Southern Methodist
104 111 113 UAB CU 716 109.2 0 Alabama, Birmingham
102 115 116 TULNE CU 684 108.4 0 Tulane
ECARL leads UCF by a half-game in the Eastern subdivision, and has the head-to-head win. SMISS is a further half-game back, they beat ECARL in week 2. HOUST holds a half-game lead over TULSA in the West; they play SMU to-night and TULSA next week-end.
The Mid-Amorican
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
57 58 59 CMICH MA 1021 102.7 1 Central Michigan
91 81 85 BALLS MA 876 102.2 0 Ball State
88 86 86 TOLED MA 872 100.8 0 Toledo
78 89 87 OHIO MA 860 99.5 0 Ohio U
107 96 90 BOWLG MA 848 106.6 0 Bowling Green
112 95 91 MIOHO MA 846 98.7 0 Miami-Ohio
71 94 95 WMICH MA 821 103.8 1 West Michigan
97 97 100 AKRON MA 784 102.2 0 Akron
118 99 102 BUFFL MA 780 104.6 0 Buffalo
106 106 103 KENTS MA 768 109.1 1 Kent State
117 107 109 TEMPL MA 737 111.7 0 Temple
77 114 112 NILNS MA 720 107.4 1 N Illinois
115 113 114 EMICH MA 707 105.2 0 East Michigan
MIOHO is the unexpected leader of the East division, taking that place after beating BUFFL last night. BOWLG is a further game back, but Miami took the win when they met last month. CMICH is a game and a half clear in the West division, and finishes off with doozy matches against WMICH and EMICH.
The Western Athletic
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
13 11 12 BSEST WA 1244 104.3 0 Boise State
39 27 25 HAWII WA 1149 124.9 1 Hawaii
76 66 65 FRSST WA 1000 109.4 0 Fresno State
47 72 74 NEVDA WA 973 107.2 0 Nevada
69 84 88 SNJST WA 854 107.5 0 San Jose State
100 102 96 LSATC WA 807 109.6 0 Louisiana Tech
113 103 105 NMXST WA 762 116.4 0 New Mexico Territory
109 117 117 IDAHO WA 616 111.1 0 Idaho
114 118 118 UTHST WA 593 115.5 0 Utah Territory
Boise and Hawaii have yet to lose: their match on 23 November will decide the title, and may result in a top 10 finish for Boise. Hawaii is playing a strange pattern of games, with just one match between 12 October and 10 November, then three in 13 days.
State of Independents
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
41 55 48 NAVY XX 1063 106.5 0 Navy
14 53 62 NOTDM XX 1010 102.2 0 Notre Dame
108 105 106 ARMY XX 761 113.9 0 Army
Next week, we'll be re-capping all the divisional leaders, and detailing where battles remain.
Next week's televised games
Fr 0030 BE: #40 Louisville -v- #7 Virginia West
Fr 0500 MA: #87 Ohio -v- #100 Akron (tape)
Sa 0900 XX: #41 Rutgers -v- #106 Army (tape)
Sa 1700 BX: #4 Michigan -v- #18 Wisconsin
Sa 2030 SE: #17 Auburn -v- #15 Georgia
Su 0900 BX: #52 Illinois -v- #1 Ohio Province
Su 1200 BT: #14 Kansas -v- #46 Oklahoma Territory
We 1730 MA: #86 Toledo -v- #85 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #100 Akron -v- #91 Miamiohio (tape)
We are, one assumes, to take it that NASN actually stands for Now Akron's Sports Network.
linkpage
Sun 11 Nov 2007
Ten little
So what was wrong with Monday night? There was an NCAA-ball match on Sunday, one on Tuesday, one on Wednesday, a handful on Thursday and Friday, and the usual shedload on Saturday. But nothing on Monday.
TMQ points out that, as recently as 2005, there were regularly scheduled games amongst the non-BCS conferences in midweek. These have now been moved to Saturday, ostensibly as being one of 75 games on Saturday is more prestigious than being the only Tuesday Night NCAA-ball Game. The result: games involving obscure colleges in places no-one's ever been to, like EMICH, are tucked away on little-viewed channels. That's apart from every AKRON game, which gets international viewership on NASN...
Actually, the more prosaic reason is the expansion of the season to 12 games: the season remains 14 weeks long, and no-one wants to play Saturday - Tuesday, so each midweek game eats up one of just two bye weeks. The solution is simple: extend the season to a fifteenth week, a little deeper into December. But, oh, that's tinkering with tradition, and the NCAA-ball can't be doing with that. May the football gods smite whoever came up with that idea.
Smite of the Week
47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21
Well, that's set the wrapped toffees amongst the staff of Playpigeon magazine, and no mistake. OHIST loses its first game of the season, and its number 1 ranking. It also means that Michigan goes to the top of the standings in the Big Ten - the two season-opening defeats count for naught as they were against non-divisional opposition.
Smite of the Week (2)
33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37
Oh, heck. We'll go away and look at the rest of the results, and come back to the BX in the rest of the conferences...
The rest of Last Week's Top Ten
2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58
Baylor 21 vs. #3 Oklahoma 52
#5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
#6 Oregon - no game
#40 Louisville 31 vs. #7 West Virginia 38
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
#30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
#34 Florida St. 21 vs. #10 Virginia Tech 40
No surprise to find LSU running out winners against the local technical college. This was one of three matches to be as one-sided and obvious as a Manchester Buccaneers - Gretna game - the presumptive Bucs win would also have an upset-o-meter rating of 2. SCALF kept its charge alive with a victory over CALIF. Remember the days when LSVLE-WVIRG matches actually meant something? That's 2006 nostalgia for you. And remember when Boston College was a number 3 team? The side's now scrabbling for a place in the top 20, so save your nostalgia for I Remember Thursday Last Week
, coming soon to an obscure station.
Other top-40 matches
#17 Auburn 20 vs. #15 Georgia 45
#33 Texas A&M 26 vs. #16 Missouri 40
#37 Arkansas 13 vs. #21 Tennessee 34
#23 Wake Forest 10 vs. #22 Clemson 44
#38 TCU 22 vs. #24 BYU 27
#32 Connecticut 3 vs. #31 Cincinnati 27
Everything going to form, even in the three matches between sides separated by a statistical quirk.
Sending the Upset-o-meter into Meltdown This Week
47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21
43- East Carolina 7 vs. #104 Marshall 26
39- #110 Louisiana-Lafayette 34 vs. Middle Tennessee 24
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
38- UTEP 19 vs. #116 Tulane 34
34- Colorado 28 vs. Iowa St. 31
34- Michigan St. 48 vs. #29 Purdue 31
33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37
33- #36 Alabama 12 vs. Mississippi St. 17
31- Ohio 37 vs. #100 Akron 48
Two matches exceed the 40-point conservative estimate we made of App State's win, two whole Michigan losses ago. Ohio Province's loss is the biggest scalp for Illinois, which has previously featured here with victories over Indiana (35-point upset, week 4), Penn State (40-point, week 5), and Wisconsin (43-point, week 6). After that sequence, some commentators posited that the side belonged in the top 20. Maybe they do.
Provincial Championship Update
Cent. Michigan 34 vs. W. Michigan 31
North Carolina 27 vs. N.C. State 31
#30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
#5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58
Notre Dame, and App. State's Beatpath
Air Force 41 vs. Notre Dame 24
X- Elon 31 vs. The Citadel 42
Appalachian was beaten by Wofford, in turn beaten last week by Elon, now beaten by The Citadel. At this rate, Michigan's beatpath won't even go into the Division I-AA final tournament.
Hey! Big scorers!
X- W. Carolina 35 vs. Appalachian St. 79
X- Richmond 62 vs. Delaware 56
X- Illinois St. 24 vs. S. Illinois 34
Kansas St. 31 vs. Nebraska 73
Navy 74 vs. #115 North Texas 62
The 136-point aggregate in that final game is a record for top-flight play.
Not Tickling the Upset-o-meter
3- #19 Penn St. 31 vs. Temple 0
2- #12 Boise St. 52 vs. #118 Utah St. 0
2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58
We can certainly see why Boise needs to play Utah St: both are in the WACaday, which is a round-robin league. We can just about justify Louisiana Purchase's match against Louisiana Technical College, the clue's in the name. But there's no excuse for Penn Province to schedule a game against Temple, thus ending the latter's bowl aspirations.
Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
4 2 1 LSU SE 1379 112.1 0 Louisiana Purchase
2 1 2 OHIST BX 1370 115.2 0 Ohio Province
9 3 3 OKLAH BT 1331 108.3 0 Oklahoma
1 5 4 SCALF PX 1329 110.8 0 Southern California
10 7 5 WVIRG BE 1314 116.4 0 W Virginia
32 6 6 OREGN PX 1299 103.3 1 Oregon
5 9 7 TEXAS BT 1297 106.8 0 Texas
11 10 8 VTECH AC 1281 107.7 0 Virginia Tech
12 4 9 MICH BX 1280 106.5 0 Michigan
3 11 10 FLORD SE 1265 106.4 0 Florida
36 13 11 ARZST PX 1259 99.9 0 Arizona Province
18 15 12 GRGIA SE 1257 104.6 0 Georgia
53 14 13 KANSS BT 1247 102.7 0 Kansas
13 12 14 BSEST WA 1246 104.6 0 Boise State
38 16 15 MISRI BT 1245 102.6 0 Missouri
7 18 16 WISCO BX 1244 106.4 0 Wisconsin
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1235 102.5 0 Michigan 2
19 8 17 BOSCL AC 1232 109.6 0 Boston College
17 19 18 PENST BX 1207 103.2 0 Penn Province
30 21 19 TENSE SE 1198 99.8 0 Tennessee
34 22 20 CLEMS AC 1195 103.7 0 Clemson
21 24 21 BYU MW 1188 106.8 0 Brigham Young
8 17 22 AUBRN SE 1180 107.0 0 Auburn
15 20 23 CALIF PX 1173 102.7 0 California
39 25 24 HAWII WA 1173 120.2 0 Hawaii
54 26 25 KNTCY SE 1165 107.6 0 Kentucky
56 27 26 VIRGI AC 1162 96.8 0 Virginia
44 31 27 CINCI BE 1159 105.3 0 Cincinnati
27 28 28 ORGST PX 1151 100.5 0 Oregon Territory
23 23 29 WAKEF AC 1135 99.7 0 Wake Forest
31 45 30 MARYL AC 1129 104.7 0 Maryland
The entire top ten is within one RD of the leader, and must have a credible claim to the championship game; most of the top 25 is within two RD, and can seriously look at the top five bowls. Maryland's big win catapults them into the top 30, with Utah (up 11 to 33) and Illinois (up 14 to 38) also making big moves.
BCS divisions
AC CLEMS (20) takes over atop the Atlantic division, half a game clear of BOSCL (17; plays CLEMS next week) with WAKEF (29) one game off the lead; WAKEF lost head-to-heads against both rivals. The Coastal division is between VIRGI (26) and VTECH (8); the former has a half-game lead, and the sides meet on 24 Nov.
BE CONNC (40) suffered its first loss in divisional play this week, WVIRG (7) is half a game adrift, and CINCI (27) is a game off the pace. WVIRG plays CINCI and CONNC in the next two weeks, so all sides are masters of their own destiny.
BT KANSS (13) leads the North, a game clear of MISRI (15; sides meet 24 Nov). In the South, OKLAH (3) leads TEXAS (7) by half a game, and has the tie-break.
BX As you were at the top, with OHIST (2) and MICH (9) a game clear of ILLNS (38). OHIST and MICH end their seasons with next week's game, the winner has the title.
PX ARZST (11) still leads the division, half-a-game ahead of OREGN (6). Powerhouses SCALF (4) are just one win away from taking the division. OREGN has beaten both other contenders, SCALF and ARZST meet on 22 November.
SE GRGIA (12) heads the East subdivision, half-a-game ahead of TENSE (19) and FLORD (10). GRGIA lost to TENSE, who lost to FLORD, who lost to GRGIA; the latter's match against GEOTC on 24 November could decide the sub-division, with a win guaranteeing the title, and a loss sending us reaching for the rulebook. LSU (1) has the West sewn up, a game-and-a-half advantage - and head-to-head wins - over AUBRN (22) and ALABM (47).
Other divisions
CU UCF (60) tops the East, a half-game ahead of ECARL (63), but the Carolina side has the tie-break. A win for TULSA (51) over HOUST (64) leaves the two sides locked at the top of the West, clear of all opposition.
MA MIOHO (89) is the only Miami in bowl contention, leading the East by half-a-game from BUFFL (102) and BOWLG (86); Miami beat both contenders. CMICH (57) is two clear of BALLS (83) for the West.
MW BYU (21) takes a one-game lead over AIRFC (52), with UTAH (33) and NEWMX (50) a further half-game back.
SB TROY (62) leads FLATL (77) by one; the sides meet on 1 December.
WA HAWII (24) and BSEST (14) are perfect +6-0 in divisional play, with FRSST (69) a game and a half back. The leaders meet on 23 November; both have beaten Fresno. Indeed, +9-0 HAWII and +10-0 KANSS are the only two sides able to end the regular season without a defeat.
XX NAVY (48) the only side looking for bowls, +6-4 is not certain. ARMY (106) has 3 wins, NOTDM (68) just one.
Next week
We 1730 MA: #85 Toledo -v- #83 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #96 Akron -v- #89 Miamiohio (tape)
Fr 1800 PX: #6 Oregon -v- #66 Arizona (tape)
Sa 0400 WA: #24 Hawaii -v- #71 Nevada
Sa 1700 BX: #2 Ohio Province -v- #9 Michigan
Sa 2000 Game tbc
Su 0900 Game tbc
Su 1200 Game tbc
Helpful, that.
linkpage
Mon 12 Nov 2007
Further NCAA considerations
A Monday update, perhaps shedding more light on some matters from yesterday.
Handicapping the South East East
As things stand, GRGIA has two defeats, both against SE opponents. FLORD and TENSE have also lost two matches against SE sides, and a third match against other opposition. GRGIA has one game against an SE side and one out-of-division match, the other sides both have two division matches left. The three-way tie is indecisive: GRGIA beat FLORD beat TENSE beat GRGIA.
If everyone wins their remaining games, all three sides finish with two divisional losses, but GRGIA has lost only two games overall, the others have lost three, so wins. However, if FLORD loses one of its remaining games while the others win out, the tie-break becomes the head-to-head match between TENSE-GRGIA, which goes to TENSE. TENSE loses a game? GRGIA has the tie-break on FLORD. And if GRGIA and TENSE both lose to divisional opposition, FLORD wins.
Still with us? (Re-reads previous paragraph) We're not! The practical upshot is that no one side has the SEE championship in their sole control: GRGIA's potential win requires TENSE and FLORD to win out, or both to lose a game; TENSE's win requires FLORD or GRGIA to lose a game, and FLORD requires (at least) a defeat for GRGIA, preferably in the divisional match.
And all of this is merely to determine the opponent for LSU in the SE final. The mind boggles.
Handicapping the play-offs (1)
For the BCS championship game, we can begin to posit scenarios.
LSU needs to beat two clearly inferior sides in its remaining regular-season games, plus whichever side wins the SEE. This should suffice to put LSU into the top two.
OHIST absolutely must beat MICH in the BX title decider next week to stand any chance of making the top two.
If OKLAH can win out its season, including the BT title game against KANSS, it would have a strong claim to make the national final. Given the fact that OHIST has one game left against quality opposition, and OKLAH has three, it's likely that OKLAH would take second place if it and OHIST win out.
Of the sides on the cusp: SCALF needs to win out its remaining games, including ARZST, to enter into contention. We can't see the side qualifying unless it wins its division, and that would require a defeat for OREGN. OREGN, meanwhile, needs to win out, and probably needs one of the sides above to slip up.
We can't yet rule out WVIRG, though that really requires defeats for OHIST, OKLAH in its title game (or not to make the title), and the PX to end in a mess of upsets. TEXAS perhaps has a better shot: OKLAH to lose one of its regular games, TEXAS to win the championship, hope for other results to go their way. VTECH needs to win out, and hope for a miracle.
MICH, FLORD, ARZST, GRGIA, KANSS, MINNS - we wouldn't begruge any of them places in the final ten, but the only realistic chance of any making the final is the SE sides knocking off LSU, coupled with a messy end to the PX and BT seasons, and generally being preferred to MICH. Of the interlopers, the winner of BSEST-HAWII has a strong claim to inclusion: BSEST is currently ranked 11th after excluding multiple entrants, and HAWII would have gone through the season undefeated.
Barring lower-ranked winners of the BE and AC, we cannot see any side outside the current top 15 challenging for the end-of-season top 10.
Handicapping the play-offs (2)
At the moment, we project LSU -v- OKLAH for the BCS championship, assuming both are divisional champs. Barring upsets, the other spots look to be:
PX: OREGN plus winner of ARZST-SCALF.
BE: net winner of WVIRG or CONNC or CINCI.
AC: one from VTECH, CLEMS, BOSCL, VIRGI.
BX: MICH or OHIST.
SEE: GRGIA or TENSE or FLORD.
BT2: KANSS or MISRI or TEXAS.
We can't see the PX failing to put two sides into the top ten, barring a complete meltdown. BE is going to be champions only, and AC is unlikely to put two sides in, though VTECH losing the championship game by a sneeze would not be fatal. MICH secures a spot if they win next week but is certainly eliminated if they lose; a defeat for OHIST puts them into the scramble for the open places. We suspect that two defeats on the bounce will count heavily against them, but it's not quite fatal.
Even assuming LSU wins the championship, the runners-up in the SE should get a spot; more likely if it's anyone but FLORD, and TENSE would have the advantage of not being in the BCS games lately. BT's presumptive runners-up to OKLAH also have a good claim, particularly if they're a one-loss KANSS; it's almost impossible for Texas to gain a BCS game unless it wins the entire division. A defeat for LSU in the SE divisional playoff will surely see them cascade into one of the other bowls; a loss for OKLAH may see them excluded entirely. Neither the BT nor the SE can be certain of two entrants, but the omens are useful.
Tenth spot we're provisionally reserving for the winner of BSEST - HAWII. HAWII looks the more likely, given the way these humans rely on small numbers in the L column. Defeated OHIST and VTECH only really come into the mix if one of the other conferences ends up in an ugly mess.
linkpage
Sun 18 Nov 2007
Polling analysis
The Sports Economist points us to a paper on how the NCAA-ball polls work. It demonstrates:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a large margin is negligible. I conclude by noting how these results inform debates about a potential playoff in college football.
How does Glickoblog reflect this? As followers have seen, the value of MICH's opening-day loss to Appalachian - as measured in the gap between MICH, which did not lose points, and MICH2, which did - had been scaled back from 91 to 45 points, prior to yesterday's game. On the other hand, a defeat yesterday for MICH against a side on 900 points (to be exact, the (899, 103) ranking of MDTEN) would have cost the side 53 ranking points. Other things being equal, it is slightly better for a decent side to get an embarrassing defeat out of the way early.
Margin of victory does not materially affect the voting. Nor does it affect Glickoblog rankings; see arguments passim.
The strength of a defeated opponent does not affect voting for the AP. It does for Glickoblog, but only while the ratings adjust to major shifts. To pick a bad example, GEOTC's opening-day win against NOTDM earned them 58 rating points, which we may reasonably halve through the passage of time. A win this week would have been worth just 17 points. This is a bad example because no-one quite knew just how abysmally rubbish NOTDM was at the beginning of the season: while they may not have been the 14th best side as we assumed, the consensus was that they were far closer to 14th than 70th. For NOTDM to fall, other sides have had to rise, and those sides that played the side early in the season will have been slightly over-rewarded. Similarly, those sides that lost early-season games to fast-rising sides like ARZST will be a smidge lower than they might otherwise be. More relevantly, OREGN's win in week 2 over MICH earned them 50 points; before this week's matches, it would be worth 26, no significant change.
For Glickoblog to address this perceived inconsistency, it would be necessary to recompute all rankings each time from the initial set. This is possible, and is an area we may explore in a future year.
A win over a good side is a win over a good side, but it seems that this factor is ignored by the human voters. Glickoblog awards lots of points for knocking off the number 1 side, as we saw last week. Losing to a strong opponent does help a team, and perhaps we might re-factor MICH's +0-2 start to the season as losses to the best side in I-AA last year (embarrassing, however you cut it) and the best side in the PX this (entirely reasonable for a BX contender).
On the field
The week began on Wednesday with this nationally-networked game:
Akron 0 vs. Miami (Ohio) 7
Mmm, gripping. Let's get the regular items out of the way early.
Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?
#113 Duke 7 vs. #68 Notre Dame 28
At the Top of Michigan's Beatpath
X- The Citadel 70 vs. VMI 28
The Citadel beat Elom beat Wofford beat App State beat Michigan beat Notre Dame beat Duke. So Citadel is six games better than Duke. Look at the rankings, this might be accurate.
Other lowly-ranked sides
#107 Kent St. 14 vs. #110 Temple 24
#117 Idaho 14 vs. #14 Boise St. 58
34- #118 Utah St. 35 vs. #109 New Mexico St. 17
#103 Louisiana-Lafayette 38 vs. #119 Fla. International 28
Last year, Kent was excluded from the bowls only by the choice of the sponsors: they believed that a pisspoor Miamiflorida team would be more attractive. Temple is already out of contention for this year's games, but can look forward to something better next season. By losing by a mere ten points, this may be FLINT's best result of the year.
The bottom ten
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
====================================================================
111 108 110 UNLV MW 731 104.9 0 Nevada, The Meadows
106 107 111 KENTS MA 712 102.4 0 Kent State
79 112 112 SMU CU 707 99.1 0 Southern Methodist
116 113 113 DUKE AC 699 119.6 0 Duke
113 109 114 NMXST WA 693 108.3 0 New Mexico Territory
104 114 115 UAB CU 686 104.0 0 Alabama, Birmingham
110 116 116 NTEXS SB 663 106.6 0 North Texas
114 118 117 UTHST WA 637 111.5 0 Utah Territory
109 117 118 IDAHO WA 614 111.8 0 Idaho
119 119 119 FLINT SB 546 116.2 0 Florida International
We'll explain what happened to the other two escapers from the 110s later.
Last Week's Top Ten
#1 LSU 41 vs. Mississippi 24
#2 Ohio St. 14 vs. #9 Michigan 3
39- #3 Oklahoma 27 vs. #34 Texas Tech 34
#4 Southern California - no game
#5 West Virginia 28 vs. #27 Cincinnati 23
44- #6 Oregon 24 vs. Arizona 34
#7 Texas - no game
Miamiflorida 14 vs. #8 Virginia Tech 44
#2 Ohio St. 14 vs. #9 Michigan 3
Florida Atlantic 20 vs. #10 Florida 59
LSU gets a second straight victory against mediocre opposition, and it only adds three points to their total. The BX title game goes to OHIST, and it puts them right back into contention for the BCS title game, especially after defeats for OKLAH and OREGN. WVIRG won the first on its two games to decide the BE title, and suddenly enters into top-2 contention. Easy wins for VTECH and FLORD advance their claims by not hurting them.
Also in the top 40
#25 Kentucky 13 vs. #12 Georgia 24
Iowa St. 7 vs. #13 Kansas 45
#15 Missouri 49 vs. Kansas St. 32
#17 Boston College 20 vs. #20 Clemson 17
Vanderbilt 24 vs. #18 Tennessee 25
#24 Hawaii 28 vs. Nevada 26
#30 Maryland 16 vs. #37 Florida St. 24
No game for #11 ARZST this week. The mess in the SE-E continues: Florida's win is joined by a difficult victory for GRGIA, and a trivial win for TENSE. Wins for both KANSS and MISRI, the sides in contention for the BT-N title. The AC-A goes to BOSCL, the AC-C will be decided next week after VTECH and VIRGI both won. HAWII continues to be unbeaten: if the title game were decided purely on won-loss record, the side would meet KANSS in the grand final.
The Upset-o-meter
46- #115 E. Michigan 48 vs. Cent. Michigan 45
44- #6 Oregon 24 vs. Arizona 34
42- #100 Louisiana-Monroe 21 vs. Alabama 14
41- W. Michigan 28 vs. Iowa 19
36- #18 Penn St. 31 vs. Michigan St. 35
34- #118 Utah St. 35 vs. #109 New Mexico St. 17
34- #111 Tulane 45 vs. Rice 31
32- #39 Purdue 24 vs. Indiana 27
30- San Jose St. 23 vs. Louisiana Tech 27
That's what happened to the sides in last week's bottom ten: they won games! EMICH's win is one of the biggest of the year, even larger an upset than OREGN's defeat. Defeat for near neighbours MICH ensures there will be much dancing in Depot Town this week.
Other inter-provincial matches
X- Harvard 37 vs. Yale 6
X- N. Carolina A&T 7 vs. S. Carolina St. 51
X- N. Dakota St. 24 vs. S. Dakota St. 29
X- Tenn.-Martin 43 vs. Tennessee St. 38
X- Montana 41 vs. Montana St. 20
The Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
====================================================================
2 2 1 OHIST BX 1395 110.8 0 Ohio Province
4 1 2 LSU SE 1382 111.9 0 Louisiana Purchase
10 5 3 WVIRG BE 1335 112.3 0 W Virginia
1 4 4 SCALF PX 1329 110.8 1 Southern California
5 7 5 TEXAS BT 1297 106.8 1 Texas
11 8 6 VTECH AC 1294 105.4 0 Virginia Tech
9 3 7 OKLAH BT 1284 105.7 0 Oklahoma
18 12 8 GRGIA SE 1278 101.5 0 Georgia
3 10 9 FLORD SE 1273 105.1 0 Florida
38 15 10 MISRI BT 1272 99.4 0 Missouri
36 11 11 ARZST PX 1259 99.9 1 Arizona Province
19 17 12 BOSCL AC 1259 105.6 0 Boston College
12 9 13 MICH BX 1258 103.2 0 Michigan
53 13 14 KANSS BT 1256 99.5 0 Kansas
32 6 15 OREGN PX 1251 102.5 0 Oregon
7 16 16 WISCO BX 1249 105.6 0 Wisconsin
13 14 17 BSEST WA 1248 104.8 0 Boise State
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1217 99.9 0 Michigan 2
30 19 18 TENSE SE 1209 98.1 0 Tennessee
21 21 19 BYU MW 1201 104.4 0 Brigham Young
39 24 20 HAWII WA 1192 116.2 0 Hawaii
15 23 21 CALIF PX 1186 100.5 0 California
8 22 22 AUBRN SE 1180 107.0 1 Auburn
34 20 23 CLEMS AC 1170 100.5 0 Clemson
27 28 24 ORGST PX 1168 98.0 0 Oregon Territory
17 18 25 PENST BX 1168 100.6 0 Penn Province
56 26 26 VIRGI AC 1162 96.8 1 Virginia
24 34 27 TXSTC BT 1155 100.3 0 Texas Tech
23 29 28 WAKEF AC 1153 97.2 0 Wake Forest
54 25 29 KNTCY SE 1143 104.1 0 Kentucky
44 27 30 CINCI BE 1142 102.5 0 Cincinnati
Right, let's crunch the numbers for the BCS entrants. OHIST has finished, complete, kaput, will not budge from 1395. LSU has one relatively trivial game next week, then the SE title game against TENSE or GRGIA. Winning both will take LSU above 1400 points, and surely a place in the final. WVIRG has shot into contention with defeats for OREGN and OKLAH, but would really need LSU to lose their title game; a win against CONNC puts them on 1350. If SCALF wins the PX title, their history could count enough to put them into second; a win against ARZST lifts the side above 1350, but they've then got to beat UCLA. TEXAS is unlikely to make the BT title game. A +13-0 KANSS will rank very highly amongst the human voters. Sod easy schedules, this side has yet to taste defeat, let's put them in the top bracket. The AC champion is assured a place in the top ten, and there's still the chance of BSEST or HAWII crashing the party.
Calling the BCS bowls
Our gut feeling is:
Title game LSU - KANSS
Reserves OHIST, GRGIA, TENSE, in that order, depending on who wins their conferences. Obviously, not all can. Ranking the others is an academic exercise, because we have two certain winners (BX and SE), but we reckon it goes ARZST, OKLAH, OREGN, WVIRG, VTECH, MISRI, SCALF.
Wild cards Almost certain that the SE runner-up will get an invite. We still think two from the PX is likely, with OREGN probably getting a place if it wins out - for both SCALF and ARZST, it's win or bust next week. OKLAH and MISRI have credible shouts for the top ten even if they lose. VTECH may squeeze in if it loses the AC title game, though not if it loses to VIRGI next week. A +12-0 HAWII would get the last place; things would be easier if it lost, as BX cannot hope to claim two spots, and we can only see BE taking two if WVIRG loses and there's a mess in both PX and AC.
Conferences in detail
AC BOSCL has won the Atlantic, even if it loses to Miamiflorida. The Coastal will be decided by the meeting of VIRGI and VTECH.
BE WVIRG and CONNC meet to decide the title.
BT KANSS and MISRI meet to decide the North division. OKLAH need only beat OKLST to win the South; a defeat would allow TEXAS to take the division with a win.
BX OHIST has won, beating ILLNS and MICH by a game. All sides have now finished their seasons.
CU In the East, UCF has a one-game lead over MEMPH and ECARL; a three-way tie would resolve in favour of UCF, but they would lose a straight tie to ECARL. HOUST has finished its conference programme, but will lose top spot if TULSA wins.
MA Miami for the bowls! MIOHO has the East division won, and will play CMICH for the title.
MW Even with two divisional games left to play, BYU has this one in the bag.
PX It's ARZST's to lose, but if they can't beat SCALF, they would tend to lose. In this situation, OREGN wins if it can win its final divisional match. Note that all three sides have a later game - ARZST finishes against ARIZN, SCALF has UCLA, and OREGN's games are against UCLA and ORGST.
SE LSU has wrapped up the West. We're taking out a contract on ESPN's oh-so-inaccurate journalism, as it appears FLORD has finished its divisional activity, meaning that TENSE has it to lose in the East; we can hear the cheers for KNTCY from here. Bloody Mickey Mouse organisations.
SB TROY is a game clear of FLATL; the sides meet in two weeks.
WA Still boiling down to HAWII-BSEST.
XX NAVY for the bowls, nothing for the others but derision.
Television coverage
Th 1700 SB: Middle Tennessee -v- Troy (tape)
Fr 0100 PX: Southern California -v- Arizona Province
Fr 1700 BT: Nebraska -v- Colorado
Fr 2030 BT: Texas -v- Texas A and M
Sa 0200 WA: Boise State -v- Hawaii
Sa 1700 Match tbc
Sa 2030 PX: Oregon -v- UCLA
Su 0800 **: Florida Swamp -v- Florida (tape)
Su 1100 SE: Alabama -v- Auburn (tape)
Su 2230 CFL The Grey Cup Final
linkpage
Sun 25 Nov 2007
Divisional championships are set
Let's begin with the big guns, because there have been some substantial changes.
Top Ten Contenders
#1 Ohio Province - no game
43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48
#37 Connecticut 21 vs. #3 West Virginia 66
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
#6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21
Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49
#8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17
#34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45
#10 Missouri 36 vs. #14 Kansas 28
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
Miami 14 vs. #12 Boston College 28
37- #15 Oregon 0 vs. #43 UCLA 16
#17 Boise St. 27 vs. #20 Hawaii 39
#18 Tennessee 52 vs. #29 Kentucky 50
LSU's shock defeat on Friday night hasn't cost them a place in the SE title game - that was always in the bag - but has almost certainly cost a place in the BCS title game. WVIRG's blowout win has secured the BE title. SCALF kept itself firmly in the running with victory over Arizona Province, ensuring it's the Californish who have the matter in their own hands. That game was played on Thursday; not until the early hours of Sunday did UCLA set the cat amongst the toffees with its win over Oregon. Virginia Technical College beat Virginia to seal a place in the AC title game. Texas's loss is the third of its season, and ends any residual hope of cracking the BCS circle; it also ensured Oklahoma a berth in the BT title game. Their opponents will be Missouri, winners in the winner-take-all match. Friday's late game saw Hawaii overpower Boise, and needing just one more win to finish the season undefeated. LSU's opponents in the SE title game will be Tennessee, a side that won only one game of significance all season, and was taken into four periods of extra time this week, but the one big win happened to be against divisional rivals Georgia.
Other Top 40 sides
#33 Utah 10 vs. #19 BYU 17
The Notoriously Rubbish
Notre Dame 21 vs. Stanford 14
#106 Buffalo 30 vs. #111 Kent St. 23
#117 Utah St. 24 vs. #118 Idaho 19
Florida Atlantic 55 vs. #119 Fla. International 23
Notre Dame manages a third win, and is provisionally ranked number 62 for the season. One place below them, after a second consecutive rubbish season, is Miamiflorida. Last year, the blowhards relied on a victory over a Division II side and the reflected shine of their former glories to progress into the play-offs. This year, no such luck is possible, and the side is not eligible for a game. Had Notre Dame not been so rubbish early this season, much more attention would have been thrown on the continued mediocrity of the MIAFL team.
As it is, FLINT ends the year +0-11 in games against top-flight sides, level with IDAHO. UTHST's winning streak now stands at two matches, and this feels like a good place to declare. We'll list the bottom ten, and all 109 places above them, next week.
The Upset-o-meter
43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
37- Wyoming 28 vs. #103 Colorado St. 36
32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65
Division II News
X- James Madison 27 vs. Appalachian St. 28
X- Wofford 23 vs. Montana 22
Squeakers!
Score Your Ranking!
32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
Oh, bad luck Colorado, missing the jackpot prize by just one conversion; we should also note NBRSK's valiant attempt to have the game end 42:64. TEXAM capped a good win by scoring precisely their ranking.
Inter-Provincial Championships
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
X- Delaware St. 7 vs. Delaware 44
Mississippi 14 vs. Mississippi St. 17
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
#6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21
Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49
#8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17
#34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45
Miami (Ohio) 29 vs. Ohio 38
X- E. Illinois 11 vs. S. Illinois 30
Louisiana-Monroe 17 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 11
Washington St. 42 vs. Washington 35
Top Thirty
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
2 1 1 OHIST BX 1395 110.8 1 Ohio Province
1 4 2 SCALF PX 1355 107.4 0 Southern California
10 3 3 WVIRG BE 1350 109.4 0 W Virginia
4 2 4 LSU SE 1328 109.7 0 Louisiana Purchase
11 6 5 VTECH AC 1313 102.4 0 Virginia Tech
9 7 6 OKLAH BT 1298 103.3 0 Oklahoma
38 10 7 MISRI BT 1296 96.6 0 Missouri
18 8 8 GRGIA SE 1295 99.0 0 Georgia
3 9 9 FLORD SE 1291 102.2 0 Florida
19 12 10 BOSCL AC 1272 103.4 0 Boston College
12 13 11 MICH BX 1258 103.2 1 Michigan
5 5 12 TEXAS BT 1252 104.7 0 Texas
7 16 13 WISCO BX 1249 105.6 1 Wisconsin
36 11 14 ARZST PX 1238 97.9 0 Arizona Province
39 20 15 HAWII WA 1231 111.4 0 Hawaii
53 14 16 KANSS BT 1231 96.7 0 Kansas
30 18 17 TENSE SE 1229 95.6 0 Tennessee
21 19 18 BYU MW 1224 101.1 0 Brigham Young
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1217 99.9 1 Michigan 2
13 17 19 BSEST WA 1216 101.6 0 Boise State
32 15 20 OREGN PX 1212 100.0 0 Oregon
8 22 21 AUBRN SE 1198 104.6 0 Auburn
34 23 22 CLEMS AC 1190 97.8 0 Clemson
15 21 23 CALIF PX 1186 100.5 1 California
27 24 24 ORGST PX 1168 98.0 1 Oregon Territory
17 25 25 PENST BX 1168 100.6 1 Penn Province
23 28 26 WAKEF AC 1165 95.5 0 Wake Forest
24 27 27 TXSTC BT 1155 100.3 1 Texas Tech
42 31 28 SFLOR BE 1153 100.1 0 S Florida
44 30 29 CINCI BE 1149 101.5 0 Cincinnati
56 26 30 VIRGI AC 1146 95.4 0 Virginia
Last week, we said the most likely BCS title game was LSU-KANSS. We don't think that any more.
Conferences in detail
AC BOSCL and VTECH will compete for the title. A VTECH win lifts them to 1337, a BOSCL win puts them on 1303. Ratings of the losers would be BOSCL 1248, VTECH 1283.
BE Won by WVIRG, who play PITTS next week. A win will put them on 1355, a defeat sees the side slump to 1291.
BT MISRI against OKLAH. A win for OKLAH takes them to 1325, for MISRI to 1320. Defeated OKLAH rests at 1270, MISRI at 1272.
BX OHIST has won, and will remain at 1395.
SE LSU and TENSE here. A win for LSU advances them to 1351, a defeat to 1289. TENSE will end on 1259 or 1212.
WA Has been won by HAWII; though they're only on 1231, 1241 with a victory against WASNG next week, the only +12-0 side will surely get into the top ten.
PX There's a reason we've taken them out of order... Remember how we've been floating the possibility that this division could end up in one awful mess? This division could end up in the biggest pile-up of quality mediocrity in history. SCALF heads ARZST on head-to-head, with OREGN, ORGST, and UCLA all one game back. Now, the division cannot finish in a five-way tie, as OREGN and ORGST play next week. However, if UCLA knocks off SCALF (which is quite possible), and ARZST can't win its derby against ARIZN (not quite on a par with Andorra drawing with Russia, but you get the drift), we will have four sides on +6-3 in the division. If this happened, the win-loss matrix (excluding OREGN-ORGST) would look like this:
SCALF ..0 1.0 1..
ARZST .0. 01. .1.
UCLA 1.. .01 ..1
OREGN 011 ... ...
ORGST ... ... 000
All would hinge on the winner of the Oregon match. If it were OREGN (read the left two columns), they would have two wins against the other tied sides, but so would UCLA, and UCLA won the head-to-head game, so would be champions. However, if ORGST won (right-hand columns), then SCALF, UCLA, and ARZST all have two wins each, and we have to go looking into the PX rulebook for its tiebreaking arcana. Next up: matches against the next side down in the rankings, which is ARIZN, who beat OREGN last week. By assumption, ARIZN beat ARZST, and we find they beat UCLA but lost to SCALF, who are therefore the champions.
So, the scenarios are:
SCALF beats UCLA, wins title, done, dusted, see you in the big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST beats ARIZN, then ARZST wins title, done, dusted, see you in the not-so-big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN beats ORGST, then UCLA wins the title on head-to-head records. Cue much confusion amongst the punditocracy.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN loses to ORGST, then matches against ARIZN enter the tie-break, SCALF wins, and the number of people who fully comprehend the reasons why is approximately equal to the number of readers of this blog.
Glad we've got that cleared up! Oh, rankings. SCALF finishes on 1368 if it wins its game, 1308 if it wins via this catflap in the back door method. UCLA can only win the division with a win, and ends on 1162. ARZST also needs a win, finishing on 1251.
Quickly through the other minors: CU UCF against TULSA. MA BOWLG against CMICH. MW BYU. SB TROY and FLATL meet in a regular-season game next week.
The projected top end
Here's how the top 20 could look next week, assuming things go according to plan. Bold indicates a team is champion of its division; italics that they're otherwise not in action next week. Outside the current top ten, we only give points assuming the side wins.
TW NW Conf R
===================================================
1 1 OHIST BX 1395 Ohio Province
2 2 SCALF PX 1368-1308 Southern California
3 3 WVIRG BE 1355-1291 W Virginia
4 4 LSU SE 1351-1289 Louisiana Purchase
5 5 VTECH AC 1337-1283 Virginia Tech
6 6 OKLAH BT 1325-1270 Oklahoma
7 7 MISRI BT 1320-1272 Missouri
10 8 BOSCL AC 1303-1248 Boston College
8 9 GRGIA SE 1295 Georgia
9 10 FLORD SE 1291 Florida
17 11 TENSE SE 1259 Tennessee
11 12 MICH BX 1258 Michigan
12 13 TEXAS BT 1252 Texas
14 14 ARZST PX 1251 Arizona Province
13 15 WISCO BX 1249 Wisconsin
15 16 HAWII WA 1241 Hawaii
16 17 KANSS BT 1231 Kansas
19 18 BSEST WA 1230 Boise State
18 19 BYU MW 1224 Brigham Young
20 20 OREGN PX 1235 Oregon
....
35 27 UCLA PX 1162 Calif, Senora Riena
So, who is going to the BCS title game? Based on these figures, and ignoring the prejudiced rantings of the humans who couldn't decide how many sugars to have in their tea (believe them, and it's WVIRG-MISRI for the taking), OHIST looks to be a complete certainty. Their opponent could realistically be any of the sides ranked 2-7, and we must bear in mind that either OKLAH or MISRI must win their game.
Two principal considerations for the wild-card spots: SCALF and VTECH. Both will have very strong records even if they lose. We can't say the same about LSU, partly because they'll have lost two on the bounce, and partly because TENSE has ridden tremendous amounts of luck to be in the divisional final in the first place. So strong is the SE division that if TENSE wins its game, it will still only be the fourth-placed SE side in these rankings. Of the others, FLORD will be handicapped by being last year's winners, last year's BCS champions, and generally last year. GRGIA has a stronger claim for inclusion. We reckon it will be stronger if LSU comes away with a win, but the difference is marginal.
HAWII should get a place with a win. Assuming that neither SCALF nor VTECH lose, the BT loser (though KANSS may be prefered to OKLAH) should be invited to something, with either BOSCL or ARZST in the wings should the favourites win or HAWII lose.
In summary:
AC VTECH almost certain, and in top 2 consideration with win; BOSCL possible.
BE WVIRG certain of top 10, possible top 2.
BT MISRI probable, OKLAH or KANSS possible. Winner an outside bet for top 2.
BX OHIST certain, probably in top 2.
PX SCALF probable of top 10, possible top 2; could be joined by ARZST. UCLA, if they travel, would go alone, because if there's one thing we know about NCAA-ball voters, it's that they hate a smart-arse.
SE LSU in top 2 consideration with a win; TENSE, GRGIA both possible.
WA HAWII in with a win, out otherwise.
Next week's televised games
Fr 1730 BE #33 Rutgers -v- #49 Louisville
Sa 1030 WA #64 Fresnostate -v- #111 New Mexico Territory
Sa 1800 AC #5 Virginia Coll of Tech -v- #10 Boston College
Sa 2100 SE #4 Louisiana Purchase -v- #17 Tennessee
Su 0100 BT #7 Missouri -v- #6 Oklahoma
Su 0700 ** Army -v- Navy
Su 1000 PX #35 UCLA -v- #2 SCALF (tape)
Su 1600 Match Of The Day
Mo 1900 BCS Draw
Tu 1630 PX #24 Oregon Province -v- #20 Oregon (tape)
Coverage of the Division II play-offs begins on 8 December.
linkpage
Sun 02 Dec 2007
Coming down the mountain
Classified football results
Miscellaneous Division I
30- #33 Rutgers 38 vs. Louisville 41
Fresno St. 30 vs. #111 New Mexico St. 23
Miami 10 vs. Cent. Michigan 35
Army 3 vs. Navy 38
#18 BYU 48 vs. San Diego St. 27
44- #23 California 13 vs. Stanford 20
33- #117 North Texas 19 vs. #119 Fla. International 38
Louisiana Tech 10 vs. Nevada 49
Division II Playoffs
X- E. Washington 35 vs. Appalachian St. 38
X- Albany, N.Y. 21 vs. Dayton 42
X- Delaware 39 vs. N. Iowa 27
X- Massachusetts 27 vs. S. Illinois 34
X- Richmond 21 vs. Wofford 10
CU Championship
Tulsa 25 vs. UCF 44
AC Championship
#5 Virginia Tech 30 vs. #10 Boston College 16
SB Championship
34- Florida Atlantic 38 vs. Troy 32
SE Championship
#17 Tennessee 14 vs. #4 LSU 21
PX Championship Series
#24 Oregon St. 38 vs. #20 Oregon 31
#35 UCLA 7 vs. #2 Southern Cal 24
Arizona 17 vs. #13 Arizona St. 20
BE Top 2 Decider
Upset of the Season
49- #80 Pittsburgh 13 vs. #3 West Virginia 9
BT Championship
#6 Oklahoma 38 vs. #7 Missouri 17
WA Top 10 Decider
Washington 28 vs. #15 Hawaii 35
In the also-rans, a couple of takers for Upset of the Year: Stanford's victory is a rare 44-point upset, and FLINT's victory is their first (and last) of the season. NCAAball's worst side will go into next year on a winning streak, which is more than can be said for half the top ten sides. NAVY completed a sweep of the services' bowl. UCF pull off the expected win in the CU championship, FLATL slightly surprising winners in the SB. No major surprise in the AC or SE, and the PX resolved in a commentator-friendly manner, SCALF taking the title from its head-to-head win over ARZST. The BE game was a surprise: WVIRG had the title wrapped up, and was looking at a top-2 finish with a win. Instead, a 49-point upset, the biggest of the season, knocks them well down. BT went to form, and HAWII clinched their 12th win to surely book a place in the Top 10.
Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
2 1 1 OHIST BX 1395 110.8 2 Ohio Province
1 2 2 SCALF PX 1368 105.0 0 Southern California
4 4 3 LSU SE 1351 105.9 0 Louisiana Purchase
11 5 4 VTECH AC 1337 99.3 0 Virginia Tech
9 6 5 OKLAH BT 1325 100.0 0 Oklahoma
18 8 6 GRGIA SE 1295 99.0 1 Georgia
3 9 7 FLORD SE 1291 102.2 1 Florida
10 3 8 WVIRG BE 1291 108.6 0 W Virginia
38 7 9 MISRI BT 1272 94.1 0 Missouri
12 11 10 MICH BX 1258 103.2 2 Michigan
5 12 11 TEXAS BT 1252 104.7 1 Texas
36 14 12 ARZST PX 1251 96.0 0 Arizona Province
7 13 13 WISCO BX 1249 105.6 2 Wisconsin
19 10 14 BOSCL AC 1248 100.2 0 Boston College
39 15 15 HAWII WA 1241 109.3 0 Hawaii
21 18 16 BYU MW 1231 100.2 0 Brigham Young
53 16 17 KANSS BT 1231 96.7 1 Kansas
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1217 99.9 2 Michigan 2
13 19 18 BSEST WA 1216 101.6 1 Boise State
30 17 19 TENSE SE 1212 93.5 0 Tennessee
8 21 20 AUBRN SE 1198 104.6 1 Auburn
27 24 21 ORGST PX 1196 96.1 0 Oregon Territory
34 22 22 CLEMS AC 1190 97.8 1 Clemson
32 20 23 OREGN PX 1183 97.2 0 Oregon
17 25 24 PENST BX 1168 100.6 2 Penn Province
23 26 25 WAKEF AC 1165 95.5 1 Wake Forest
24 27 26 TXSTC BT 1155 100.3 2 Texas Tech
42 28 27 SFLOR BE 1153 100.1 1 S Florida
44 29 28 CINCI BE 1149 101.5 1 Cincinnati
56 30 29 VIRGI AC 1146 95.4 1 Virginia
28 31 30 TEXAM BT 1144 97.1 1 Texas A and M
The automatic qualifiers for the Top 10 are: OHIST (1), SCALF (2), LSU (3), VTECH (4), OKLAH (5), and WVIRG (8). We must also invite the undefeated HAWII (15).
The other three places are source for debate. Clearly, one of the sides from the SE deserves entry; there is a case for inviting GRGIA (6), good results against strong opposition, spoiled only by a loss to TENSE. There is a case for inviting TENSE (19), good results against mediocre opposition, marred only by a loss to LSU. There is a less compelling case to invite FLORD (7), moderate results against strong opposition. Another place should go to the BT; pick your faves from defeated finalists MISRI (9), +11-1 KANSS (17), and regular stagers TEXAS (11). The last place looks to be a shoot-out between the likes of early-season high-fliers ARZST (12), the team that's flown under everyone's radar WISCO (13), and defeated AC finalists BOSCL.
Our projections, then:
Top 2 OHIST -v- SCALF. Whaddya mean, we're just recycling bits of script from the end of November last year?
Other invitees LSU, VTECH, OKLAH, WVIRG to be joined by options: HAWII, GRGIA, KANSS, ARZST.
Teams above average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
26 32 31 ARKNS SE 1141 102.4 1 Arkansas
15 23 32 CALIF PX 1140 99.9 0 California
105 34 33 ILLNS BX 1123 104.2 2 Illinois
29 36 34 GEOTC AC 1120 99.0 1 Georgia Tech
54 37 35 KNTCY SE 1120 100.9 1 Kentucky
31 38 36 MARYL AC 1118 98.6 1 Maryland
37 39 37 FLAST AC 1117 95.7 1 Florida Territory
40 40 38 UTAH MW 1115 96.2 1 Utah
25 35 39 UCLA PX 1111 97.1 0 Calif, Senora Riena
16 41 40 TCU MW 1103 99.1 1 Texas Christian
80 42 41 CONNC BE 1096 98.8 1 Connecticut
6 49 42 LSVLE BE 1094 103.5 0 Louisville
20 33 43 RUTGR BE 1094 100.0 0 Rutgers
41 44 44 NAVY XX 1087 103.4 0 Navy
74 43 45 MICST BX 1082 95.9 2 Michigan Province
45 46 46 PRDUE BX 1067 95.0 2 Purdue
96 55 47 UCF CU 1066 95.9 0 Central Florida
84 47 48 AIRFC MW 1064 96.0 2 Air Force
35 48 49 SCARO SE 1060 98.7 1 S Carolina
50 50 50 OKLST BT 1059 98.8 1 Oklahoma Territory
22 51 51 NBRSK BT 1058 94.7 1 Nebraska
98 52 52 MSPST SE 1051 109.6 1 Mississippi State
59 45 53 TULSA CU 1045 96.5 0 Tulsa
62 54 54 NEWMX MW 1038 96.9 1 New Mexico
43 53 55 ARIZN PX 1030 101.8 0 Arizona
70 57 56 COLRD BT 1026 95.2 1 Colorado
55 58 57 HOUST CU 1021 96.0 2 Houston
51 59 58 WASST PX 1021 97.8 1 Washington Territory
66 60 59 ECARL CU 1020 103.0 1 E Carolina
76 64 60 FRSST WA 1020 101.9 0 Fresno State
57 67 61 CMICH MA 1016 95.9 0 Central Michigan
52 61 62 ALABM SE 1013 99.1 1 Alabama
14 62 63 NOTDM XX 1013 95.3 1 Notre Dame
33 63 64 MIAFL AC 1012 99.2 1 Miami-Florida
68 65 65 INDAN BX 1009 96.3 2 Indiana
49 66 66 IOWA BX 1007 96.0 2 Iowa
ILLNS this year's most-improved side, and a very dark horse for Top 10 selection. TCU and LSVLE really fell apart this year, but there were climbs for CONNC, MICST, UCF, AIRFC, and MSPST. All will find places in the post-season, unlike Notre Dame and Miami-Florida.
Teams below average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
81 56 67 TROY SB 997 103.3 0 Troy
60 68 68 NWSTN BX 988 99.6 2 Northwestern
75 69 69 NCSTA AC 975 101.5 1 NC State
46 70 70 KNSST BT 966 96.7 1 Kansas Province
61 80 71 PITTS BE 956 101.3 0 Pittsburgh
101 79 72 FLATL SB 947 100.1 0 Florida Atlantic
47 75 73 NEVDA WA 942 99.3 0 Nevada
58 71 74 SMISS CU 938 97.3 1 S Mississippi
64 72 75 IWAST BT 935 104.5 2 Iowa Province
83 81 76 STANF PX 935 99.0 0 Stanford
89 73 77 VNDRB SE 931 102.1 1 Vanderbilt
65 74 78 WASNG PX 921 96.3 0 Washington
91 76 79 BALLS MA 918 97.4 1 Ball State
67 77 80 WYOMG MW 912 95.9 1 Wyoming
107 78 81 BOWLG MA 911 97.6 1 Bowling Green
86 82 82 MDTEN SB 880 100.9 1 Middle Tennessee
69 83 83 SNJST WA 877 98.4 1 San Jose State
99 84 84 LOMON SB 875 101.5 1 Louisiana Monroe
63 85 85 BAYLR BT 871 101.0 2 Baylor
71 86 86 WMICH MA 871 97.5 1 West Michigan
103 87 87 MEMPH CU 870 96.9 1 Memphis
73 89 88 NCARO AC 863 107.1 1 N Carolina
87 88 89 SDGST MW 862 101.0 0 San Diego State
78 90 90 OHIO MA 857 95.0 1 Ohio U
112 91 91 MIOHO MA 829 92.4 0 Miami-Ohio
88 93 92 TOLED MA 824 95.8 1 Toledo
94 94 93 ARKST SB 821 95.0 1 Arkansas Province
92 95 94 MARSL CU 821 102.2 1 Marshall
100 92 95 LSATC WA 817 103.0 0 Louisiana Tech
48 96 96 MINNS BX 815 104.0 2 Minnesota
72 97 97 RICE CU 813 98.6 1 Rice
82 98 98 COLST MW 812 102.2 1 Colorado Territory
85 99 99 UTEP CU 801 97.1 1 Texas El Paso
We find it a little difficult to get excited about these sides, though note the climb of Miami-Ohio, 7th off the bottom last year, 28th off the foot this.
The three-figured places
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
93 100 100 MISIP SE 793 106.2 1 Mississippi
97 101 101 AKRON MA 781 94.7 1 Akron
118 102 102 BUFFL MA 781 99.1 1 Buffalo
90 103 103 SYRAC BE 774 102.9 1 Syracuse
95 104 104 LOLAF SB 771 99.8 1 Louisiana Lafayette
102 105 105 TULNE CU 756 100.7 1 Tulane
117 106 106 TEMPL MA 742 103.4 1 Temple
115 108 107 EMICH MA 738 101.2 2 East Michigan
108 107 108 ARMY XX 732 108.9 0 Army
77 109 109 NILNS MA 728 100.4 1 N Illinois
111 110 110 UNLV MW 721 103.3 1 Nevada, The Meadows
79 112 111 SMU CU 691 96.8 1 Southern Methodist
106 113 112 KENTS MA 688 99.3 1 Kent State
113 111 113 NMXST WA 684 107.3 0 New Mexico Territory
116 114 114 DUKE AC 677 115.1 1 Duke
104 115 115 UAB CU 667 101.1 1 Alabama, Birmingham
114 116 116 UTHST WA 666 107.3 1 Utah Territory
110 117 117 NTEXS SB 624 104.1 0 North Texas
109 118 118 IDAHO WA 585 107.6 1 Idaho
119 119 119 FLINT SB 581 110.3 0 Florida International
Some spectacular plunges, and remarkable climbs for Buffalo and Temple, and Idaho turns out to be the only side without so much as a single win to its name.
The regular season has ended, but this isn't the end of the coverage. We'll be back in a day or two with the complete bowl line-up, including UK television airings.
linkpage
Tue 04 Dec 2007
Going bowling
Mmm, interesting. Here's the line-up for this season's NCAA bowl games.
The Pre-Christmas Bowls
21/12, 2am, Poinsettia: #38 Utah -v- #44 Navy (56% faves)
22/12, 1am, New Orleans: #72 Florida Atlantic -v- #87 Memphis (65%)
22/12, 6pm, Alabama: #28 Cincinnati -v- #74 Southern Mississippi (85%)
22/12, 9.30, New Mexico: #54 New Mexico -v- #73 Nevada (69%)
23/12, 1am, Las Vegas: #16 BYU -v- #39 UCLA (73%)
24/12, 1am, Hawaii: #59 E Carolina -v- #18 Boisestate (83%)
Two sides enjoying a fairly clear homefield advantage. Pick of these ties should be MW champs BYU against PX title contenders UCLA. We absolutely refuse to get at all interested in mismatches like Alabama and Hawaii.
The Nothing Else To Watch Bowls
27/12, 12.30 Motor City: #61 Central Michigan -v- #46 Purdue (60%)
28/12, 1am, Holiday: #12 Arizona Province -v- #11 Texas (50%)
28/12, 10pm, Orlando: #14 Boston College -v- #45 Michigan Province (80%)
29/12, 1am, Texas: #40 TCU -v- #57 Houston (66%)
29/12, 1.30a Emerald: #21 Oregon Territory -v- #36 Maryland (66%)
29/12, 6pm, Charlotte: #25 Wake Forest -v- #41 Connecticut (64%)
29/12, 9.30p Liberty: #47 UCF -v- #52 Mississippi Territory (53%)
30/12, 1am, Alamo: #30 Texas A and M -v- #24 Penn Province (55%)
Arizona Province was another side that could easily have made the big ten, and Texas makes for a very interesting opponent. Two Texas sides meet in the Texas match; the game in Orlando is one best missed.
The Getting Somewhere Bowls
31/12, 1am, Royalist: #62 Alabama -v- #56 Colorado (53%)
31/12, 5.30p Armed Rebellion: #32 California -v- #48 Air Force (65%)
31/12, 7pm, Sun: #23 Oregon -v- #27 South Florida (56%)
31/12, 7pm, Warmongers: #60 Fresnostate -v- #34 Georgia Technology (69%)
31/12, 9pm, Music City: #35 Kentucky -v- #37 Florida Territory (51%)
01/01, 1am, Atlanta: #20 Auburn -v- #22 Clemson (52%)
01/01, tbc, Tempe: #50 Oklahoma Territory -v- #65 Indiana (60%)
Long-time PX leaders Oregon won't be too happy at getting nevertheres South Florida. The Atlanta bowl can pick Georgia Technology, but chose a decent game instead.
Success Was So Last Year
01/01, 4pm, Outback: #13 Wisconsin -v- #19 Tennessee (57%)
01/01, 4.30p Cotton: #31 Arkansas -v- #9 Missouri (75%)
01/01, 6pm, Gator: #29 Virginia -v- #26 Texas Technology (52%)
01/01, 6pm, Orlando: #10 Michigan -v- #7 Florida (56%)
Wisconsin was our outside shot for inclusion in the big games, but they're relegated to a top-20 game, alongside the oh-so-lucky SE-E champs Tennessee. Absolutely no idea why Arkansas should be in that game against BT finalists Missouri. AC losers Virginia can count themselves lucky to meet an unimpressive Texas Technology side. Michigan's season has been an improvement since the opening weekend, and they'll be able to finish it off by beating outgoing BCS champions Florida.
Top Ten Fourteen
01/01, 9.30p Rose: #2 Southern California -v- #33 Illinois (88%)
02/01, 1.30a Sugar: #6 Georgia -v- #15 Hawaii (60%)
03/01, 1am, Fiesta: #5 Oklahoma -v- #8 Virginia West (56%)
04/01, 1am, Orange: #4 Virginia Technology -v- #17 Kansas (70%)
05/01, 5pm, International: #43 Rutgers -v- #79 Ballstate (81%)
07/01, 1am, Mobile: #53 Tulsa -v- #81 Bowling Green (75%)
08/01, 1am, BCS: #3 Louisiana Purchase -v- #1 Ohio Province (58%)
We'll quietly ignore the two lower-league bowls that have crept in there, everyone else will. Defending champions SCALF can rightly feel robbed: a messy end to the season doesn't detract from the fact that they were the best (read: least-bad) of the rest, and deserved a place at the top table. Illinois is an odd addition, though provisional calulations indicate they won the games that mattered, and have a Beatpath over all other BT sides.
The Sugar game looks interesting: GRGIA was denied a title chance by a loss in the wrong game, and HAWII has yet to taste defeat. A win here and defeat for OHIST would really set the cat amongst the pigeons. We have a feeling that OKLAH and WVIRG will cancel each other out, leaving a dull mess. VTECH meets the one-loss KANSS, another side that won everything except a key game. Replacing SCALF in the BCS title game is LSU, a decision that is wrong but not absurdly wrong.
Television coverage: most games will be shown live on NASN. The exceptions for December's matches are:
FLATL -v- MEMPH, 22/12, 9am
CMICH -v- PRDUE, 27/12, 12 noon
ARZST -v- TEXAS, 28/12, 12 noon
ALABM -v- COLRD, 31/12, 2.30pm
We know that there will be no live coverage of CALIF -v- AIRFC, FRSST -v- GEOTC, or KNTCY -v- FLAST, but do not have details of when these matches will be shown. Nor do we have details for the various kick-offs on 1 January; we do understand that SCALF -v- ILLNS will be live.
linkpage
Mon 17 Dec 2007
NCAA schedules
Schedules have been confirmed for post-season games in January. The following matches will be live on NASN-UK:
1 Jan:
Outback (4pm)
Orlando (7.30pm, second half only)
Rose (9.30pm)
2 Jan: Sugar (1am)
3 Jan: Fiesta (12.30am)
4 Jan: Orange (12.30am)
8 Jan: BCS (1am)
There will be taped coverage of the following matches:
Humanitarian (1/1, 7am)
Georgia (1/1, 10am)
Cotton (2/1, 11am)
Gator (2/1, 2pm)
Rebellion (3/1, 10.30am)
Music City (3/1, 1.30pm)
International (6/1, 3pm)
Mobile (7/1, 5pm)
The first half of the Orlando bowl will not be shown at all, the only post-season action not to be shown.
In comments a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Pokery proposed that there was no obvious second choice for a Top-2 game alongside OHIST. We fully agree: SCALF is only a 52% favourite to beat LSU, and any of the next three sides - OKLAH, VTECH, GRGIA - would also start with at least a 40% chance of winning. Those six sides, plus unbeaten HAWII and nearlymen WVIRG or KANSS should be playing against each other to determine anything up to four sides that can reasonably claim to be in with a shout of being the best.
Instead, we have to put up with SCALF -v- ILLNS, a game that will only teach us something if ILLNS can pull off a remarkable upset. The game cannot advance SCALF's claim far. GRGIA -v- HAWII will certainly give a valid title contender, but OKLAH -v- WVIRG and VTECH -v- KANSS will tell us less than an OKLAH -v- VTECH game.
All of this will be for nought if LSU loses to OHIST. But if OHIST buggers up the BCS title game for the second year in a row, LSU will have beaten OHIST, GRGIA or HAWII would have beaten the other, OKLAH or VTECH would have beaten the other, and SCALF's claim cannot be ignored. Four possible champions, with no self-evident winner. Does there have to be a single best side? We say not, and point to the tie for first we awarded between SCALF and TEXAS two years ago.
Is it right that both OKLAH and VTECH are to be denied a legitimate claim to the title because of scheduling? Has tradition risen up and bitten both of these sides in the backside? We'll have to see, but the tie-in tradition deserves to suffer if OHIST loses. Actually, the tie-in tradition deserves to suffer, it'll just be easier if OHIST loses.
And does there really have to be such a huge gap between OHIST's last game, on 17 November, and their next, on 8 January?
linkpage
Wed 09 Jan 2008
NCAA 2007-8: the final results
Like the England cricket team, the NCAA season is bowled out.
The Pre-Christmas Bowls
21/12, 2am, Poinsettia: #38 Utah -v- #44 Navy 35-32 (56% faves)
22/12, 1am, New Orleans: #72 Florida Atlantic -v- #87 Memphis 44-27 (65%)
22/12, 6pm, Alabama: #28 Cincinnati -v- #74 Southern Mississippi 31-21 (85%)
22/12, 9.30, New Mexico: #54 New Mexico -v- #73 Nevada 23-0 (69%)
23/12, 1am, Las Vegas: #16 BYU -v- #39 UCLA 17-16 (73%)
24/12, 1am, Hawaii: #59 E Carolina -v- #18 Boisestate 41-38 (83%)
Some of the games were tighter than we expected, and ECARL pulls off a huge (38-point) upset, beating BSEST in a squeaker.
The Nothing Else To Watch Bowls
27/12, 12.30 Motor City: #61 Central Michigan -v- #46 Purdue 48-51 (60%)
28/12, 1am, Holiday: #12 Arizona Province -v- #11 Texas 34-52 (50%)
28/12, 10pm, Orlando: #14 Boston College -v- #45 Michigan Province 24-21 (80%)
29/12, 1am, Texas: #40 TCU -v- #57 Houston 20-13 (66%)
29/12, 1.30a Emerald: #21 Oregon Territory -v- #36 Maryland 21-14 (66%)
29/12, 6pm, Charlotte: #25 Wake Forest -v- #41 Connecticut 24-10 (64%)
29/12, 9.30p Liberty: #47 UCF -v- #52 Mississippi Territory 3-10 (53%)
30/12, 1am, Alamo: #30 Texas A and M -v- #24 Penn Province 17-24 (55%)
A surprise to find TEXAS such easy winners, given ARZST's strong claims to the top ten. No major surprises in this section.
The Getting Somewhere Bowls
31/12, 1am, Royalist: #62 Alabama -v- #56 Colorado 30-24 (53%)
31/12, 5.30p Armed Rebellion: #32 California -v- #48 Air Force 42-36 (65%)
31/12, 7pm, Sun: #23 Oregon -v- #27 South Florida 21-56 (56%)
31/12, 7pm, Warmongers: #60 Fresnostate -v- #34 Georgia Technology 40-28 (69%)
31/12, 9pm, Music City: #35 Kentucky -v- #37 Florida Territory 35-28 (51%)
01/01, 1am, Atlanta: #20 Auburn -v- #22 Clemson 23-20 (52%)
01/01, 2am, Tempe: #50 Oklahoma Territory -v- #65 Indiana 49-33 (60%)
FRSST pull off a 32-point upset; SFLOR impresses with the size of their win, KNTCY pulls it out in the meaningful matches for once, and AUBRN finally wins a big game.
Success Was So Last Year
01/01, 4pm, Outback: #13 Wisconsin -v- #19 Tennessee 17-21 (57%)
01/01, 4.30p Cotton: #31 Arkansas -v- #9 Missouri 7-38 (75%)
01/01, 6pm, Gator: #29 Virginia -v- #26 Texas Technology 28-31 (52%)
01/01, 6pm, Orlando: #10 Michigan -v- #7 Florida 41-35 (56%)
Did ESPN-UK make the right decision by not showing the Orlando bowl live? Probably not; the replacement was the back end of Cotton, a complete blow-out at half-time. TENSE shows it would have been a better top-ten selection than our preferred WISCO, and TXSTC caps a quality year with a quality win. MICH ends the season +1-1 against last year's official champions, having famously lost to the Division I.V champs on opening week-end.
Top Ten Fourteen
01/01, 9.30p Rose: #2 Southern California -v- #33 Illinois 49-17 (88%)
02/01, 1.30a Sugar: #6 Georgia -v- #15 Hawaii 41-10 (60%)
03/01, 1am, Fiesta: #5 Oklahoma -v- #8 Virginia West 28-48 (56%)
04/01, 1am, Orange: #4 Virginia Technology -v- #17 Kansas 21-24 (70%)
05/01, 5pm, International: #43 Rutgers -v- #79 Ballstate 52-30 (81%)
07/01, 1am, Mobile: #53 Tulsa -v- #81 Bowling Green 63-7 (75%)
08/01, 1am, BCS: #3 Louisiana Purchase -v- #1 Ohio Province 38-24 (58%)
What does SCALF's win tell us that we did not already know? That their defeat to STANF was a fluke, but we knew that already. GRGIA's win ensures that no side has gone through the 2007-8 season undefeated, and furthers their claim to be the second-best side in the SE. Not that HAWII's defeat is any surprise: if TMQ is a reliable source, NCAA-ball players leave HAWII knowing less than when they arrive. Virginia West's win, and the Technology college's defeat, those were surprises - Kansas's win rates 33 on the upset-o-meter, the second largest shock of the post-season. OHIST's loss to LSU means the Louisiana Purchase is the nominal BCS champion, but leaves the Glickoblog rankings looking a little more messy:
The Contenders
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
4 3 1 LSU SE 1383 102.5 0 Louisiana Purchase
1 2 2 SCALF PX 1380 102.9 0 Southern California
2 1 3 OHIST BX 1359 107.9 0 Ohio Province
10 8 4 WVIRG BE 1324 104.7 0 W Virginia
18 6 5 GRGIA SE 1317 97.0 0 Georgia
11 4 6 VTECH AC 1304 96.8 0 Virginia Tech
9 5 7 OKLAH BT 1297 97.2 0 Oklahoma
12 10 8 MICH BX 1289 101.3 0 Michigan
38 9 9 MISRI BT 1287 92.2 0 Missouri
Somewhere in there is the best side in NCAA-ball this season. LSU lost two games to mid-table opposition. SCALF lost to STANF, but beat all its significant opponents in a quality division. OHIST lost two games to high-quality sides. WVIRG lost two, including one to PITTS. GRGIA lost two, again to decent opposition. VTECH lost three, and it's probable that they couldn't be said to be the best side.
In retrospect, the most irritating result of the year was Tennessee's victory over Georgia over Thanksgiving week-end. Without that result - the only time Tennessee tickled the positive side of the Upset-o-meter all season - Georgia would have won the East sub-division at a canter, challenged LSU for the SE title, and ensured that the two best sides in the division actually played this season.
Second most irritating result of the year was the decision to put SCALF against the nonentities of ILLNS. Had they played against WISCO - and we must assume that SCALF would have won the game - the Californish would have finished four points ahead of Louisiana Purchase, not three behind. We can see why the BCS wouldn't really want to have the potential Rival Title Game of SCALF -v- GRGIA, but such lily-livered bookings only serve to further the debate. Which may be what they want.
We're backing the calls from GRGIA for an eight-team play-off: whether KANSS or HAWII took the eighth spot would have been an interesting debate for December. It's certain that such an arrangement wouldn't leave us with five good candidates for the overall title, between whom precisely one game was played.
Rest of the Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
5 11 10 TEXAS BT 1280 101.9 0 Texas
19 14 11 BOSCL AC 1263 97.9 0 Boston College
53 17 12 KANSS BT 1263 95.1 0 Kansas
3 7 13 FLORD SE 1261 99.8 0 Florida
21 16 14 BYU MW 1249 97.6 0 Brigham Young
12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1249 98.5 0 Michigan 2
30 19 15 TENSE SE 1237 91.4 0 Tennessee
36 12 16 ARZST PX 1227 93.6 0 Arizona Province
8 20 17 AUBRN SE 1226 101.8 0 Auburn
7 13 18 WISCO BX 1217 103.3 0 Wisconsin
39 15 19 HAWII WA 1215 105.4 0 Hawaii
27 21 20 ORGST PX 1215 93.8 0 Oregon Territory
32 23 21 OREGN PX 1206 94.7 0 Oregon
17 24 22 PENST BX 1193 99.0 0 Penn Province
23 25 23 WAKEF AC 1185 93.9 0 Wake Forest
24 26 24 TXSTC BT 1181 98.7 0 Texas Tech
13 18 25 BSEST WA 1175 100.1 0 Boise State
34 22 26 CLEMS AC 1165 95.9 0 Clemson
44 28 27 CINCI BE 1162 100.1 0 Cincinnati
15 32 28 CALIF PX 1161 97.2 0 California
54 35 29 KNTCY SE 1146 98.6 0 Kentucky
40 38 30 UTAH MW 1138 94.5 0 Utah
Michigan's loss to Appalachian State on opening week-end turns out to have been worth precisely 40 points. Boise are the big losers from the post-season, they had the biggest defeat.
Other sides above average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
42 27 31 SFLOR BE 1129 97.9 0 S Florida
26 31 32 ARKNS SE 1123 100.3 0 Arkansas
16 40 33 TCU MW 1123 97.2 0 Texas Christian
56 29 34 VIRGI AC 1123 93.7 0 Virginia
28 30 35 TEXAM BT 1121 95.3 0 Texas A and M
105 33 36 ILLNS BX 1111 103.5 0 Illinois
20 43 37 RUTGR BE 1108 97.8 0 Rutgers
31 36 38 MARYL AC 1098 96.7 0 Maryland
6 42 39 LSVLE BE 1094 103.5 1 Louisville
25 39 40 UCLA PX 1094 94.9 0 Calif, Senora Riena
37 37 41 FLAST AC 1093 94.0 0 Florida Territory
45 46 42 PRDUE BX 1088 94.1 0 Purdue
29 34 43 GEOTC AC 1087 97.2 0 Georgia Tech
98 52 44 MSPST SE 1083 106.2 0 Mississippi State
50 50 45 OKLST BT 1081 96.8 0 Oklahoma Territory
80 41 46 CONNC BE 1075 96.8 0 Connecticut
74 45 47 MICST BX 1068 95.5 0 Michigan Province
66 59 48 ECARL CU 1062 101.4 0 E Carolina
41 44 49 NAVY XX 1062 100.1 0 Navy
59 53 50 TULSA CU 1061 94.4 0 Tulsa
35 49 51 SCARO SE 1060 98.7 2 S Carolina
22 51 52 NBRSK BT 1058 94.7 2 Nebraska
62 54 53 NEWMX MW 1056 95.3 0 New Mexico
76 60 54 FRSST WA 1054 99.1 0 Fresno State
84 48 55 AIRFC MW 1044 95.1 0 Air Force
96 47 56 UCF CU 1041 93.5 0 Central Florida
52 62 57 ALABM SE 1040 97.0 0 Alabama
43 55 58 ARIZN PX 1030 101.8 1 Arizona
51 58 59 WASST PX 1021 97.8 2 Washington Territory
14 63 60 NOTDM XX 1013 95.3 2 Notre Dame
33 64 61 MIAFL AC 1012 99.2 2 Miami-Florida
49 66 62 IOWA BX 1007 96.0 3 Iowa
Illinois was clearly over-ranked by the BCS voters, and even though MICH lost on opening day, they would have made less rubbish opposition for SCALF. And given enough points to put the Californish atop the standings, had they won. NOTDM's stinker of a season ends exactly half-way down the standings.
Below Average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
55 57 63 HOUST CU 1002 95.1 0 Houston
70 56 64 COLRD BT 1001 93.6 0 Colorado
81 67 65 TROY SB 997 103.3 1 Troy
57 61 66 CMICH MA 995 93.5 0 Central Michigan
60 68 67 NWSTN BX 988 99.6 3 Northwestern
68 65 68 INDAN BX 987 95.3 0 Indiana
75 69 69 NCSTA AC 975 101.5 2 NC State
101 72 70 FLATL SB 968 97.3 0 Florida Atlantic
46 70 71 KNSST BT 966 96.7 2 Kansas Province
61 71 72 PITTS BE 956 101.3 1 Pittsburgh
64 75 73 IWAST BT 935 104.5 3 Iowa Province
83 76 74 STANF PX 935 99.0 1 Stanford
89 77 75 VNDRB SE 931 102.1 2 Vanderbilt
58 74 76 SMISS CU 926 96.3 0 S Mississippi
47 73 77 NEVDA WA 923 96.7 0 Nevada
65 78 78 WASNG PX 921 96.3 1 Washington
67 80 79 WYOMG MW 912 95.9 2 Wyoming
91 79 80 BALLS MA 904 96.2 0 Ball State
107 81 81 BOWLG MA 895 96.1 0 Bowling Green
86 82 82 MDTEN SB 880 100.9 2 Middle Tennessee
69 83 83 SNJST WA 877 98.4 2 San Jose State
99 84 84 LOMON SB 875 101.5 2 Louisiana Monroe
63 85 85 BAYLR BT 871 101.0 3 Baylor
71 86 86 WMICH MA 871 97.5 2 West Michigan
73 88 87 NCARO AC 863 107.1 2 N Carolina
87 89 88 SDGST MW 862 101.0 1 San Diego State
78 90 89 OHIO MA 857 95.0 2 Ohio U
103 87 90 MEMPH CU 850 95.2 0 Memphis
112 91 91 MIOHO MA 829 92.4 1 Miami-Ohio
88 92 92 TOLED MA 824 95.8 2 Toledo
94 93 93 ARKST SB 821 95.0 2 Arkansas Province
92 94 94 MARSL CU 821 102.2 2 Marshall
100 95 95 LSATC WA 817 103.0 1 Louisiana Tech
48 96 96 MINNS BX 815 104.0 3 Minnesota
72 97 97 RICE CU 813 98.6 2 Rice
82 98 98 COLST MW 812 102.2 2 Colorado Territory
85 99 99 UTEP CU 801 97.1 2 Texas El Paso
Just a couple of winners here, neither against significant sides.
The bottom of the barrel
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle
==================================================================
93 100 100 MISIP SE 793 106.2 2 Mississippi
97 101 101 AKRON MA 781 94.7 2 Akron
118 102 102 BUFFL MA 781 99.1 2 Buffalo
90 103 103 SYRAC BE 774 102.9 2 Syracuse
95 104 104 LOLAF SB 771 99.8 2 Louisiana Lafayette
102 105 105 TULNE CU 756 100.7 2 Tulane
117 106 106 TEMPL MA 742 103.4 2 Temple
115 107 107 EMICH MA 738 101.2 3 East Michigan
108 108 108 ARMY XX 732 108.9 1 Army
77 109 109 NILNS MA 728 100.4 2 N Illinois
111 110 110 UNLV MW 721 103.3 2 Nevada, The Meadows
79 111 111 SMU CU 691 96.8 2 Southern Methodist
106 112 112 KENTS MA 688 99.3 2 Kent State
113 113 113 NMXST WA 684 107.3 1 New Mexico Territory
116 114 114 DUKE AC 677 115.1 2 Duke
104 115 115 UAB CU 667 101.1 2 Alabama, Birmingham
114 116 116 UTHST WA 666 107.3 2 Utah Territory
110 117 117 NTEXS SB 624 104.1 1 North Texas
109 118 118 IDAHO WA 585 107.6 2 Idaho
119 119 119 FLINT SB 581 110.3 1 Florida International
For next season...
By the time the season resumes in August, we're expecting to have perfected a method of re-calculating results from the start of the season, rather than week-by-week. If this comes to plan, we'll be able to work with different starting conditions, and won't be tied to our first best guess.
And remember: Florida International, the worst team in NCAA-ball, will go in on a winning streak of 1. OHIST will go into the new season on a losing streak.
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