Fri 14 Mar 2008
...and draws for all
The end appears nigh for Gretna, placed into administration, docked ten of their 16 points, and having difficulty raising a team to play Aberdeen on Saturday. It's clear that the side has risen too far too quickly, and perhaps a spell in Division B would have helped them consolidate. As it is, we rather fear that we'll have to class the side alongside the Colne Dynamos who rose through the Northern Leagues in the late 1980s, only to fold in 1990 when on the verge of promotion to Division V.
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool
Inter M 0:0 [34]
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b]
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona
Barcelona 3:1
--------------------------
Roma 2:2
Real Mad 1:1 Roma
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
In spite of the protestations that they wouldn't seed the quarter-finals, the four seeded sides - Barcelona, the Buccaneers, CSKA Kensington, and Arsenal - have been kept apart. The draw throws up an all-English quarter-final - with the sides meeting in the league between the two legs - and quite possibly an all-London semi-final. The alternative is yet another installment in the Stadiennes - CSKA saga, for the fourth time in as many competitions. Of the quarter-finals, only Roma and the Buccaneers have previously met in Europe, and this will be the sides' third encounter in a year.
UEFA Cup, Achtelfinalrund
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2 [44]
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2 [35]
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1 [33]
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
History? Rangers and Sporting met in the second round of the Cup-Winners' Cup in 1972, Rangers winning on away goals after a 6:6 draw. What would ITV give for another one of those! None of the other quarter-final ties has ever appeared before.
Highlights of the coming week-end include a potential title-decider in Russia, Zenit St Petersburg -v- Spartak Moscow; relegation clash in France - St-Ettienne -v- Toulouse - and in Italy, Livorno -v- Parma. There's Werder Bremen -v- Wolfsburg in Germany (SET2, 10pm Sunday); and Getafe -v- Santander. Two sides could change their division in Scotland; in addition to Gretna's heartbreaking spiral down back to Division VIII (NW), East Fife can clinch the Division D title with a win at East Stirling. Though the home side has improved from its woeful performance a few years back, it's still rock bottom of the Scottish League. There's also the little matter of the Scottish League Cup to decide, Dundee Utd and Rangers. Another match for the Ibrox fixture pile-up! Nowt much in England, Watford - Stoke is more interesting than anything in the top flight.
linkpage
Fri 21 Mar 2008
Carquefou -v- Westbromwich, anyone?
Some bizarre and depressing news from UEFA, for the television rights to the European League 2009-12 have been blasted into space. Coverage of the tournament will be restricted to a single match on Wednesday nights. What is the use of a made-for-television tournament if there's no television coverage? Would we be right to ignore a tournament if we can't see any evidence that it exists?
The Round Four in the French Cup this week. Champions-elect Lyon and best-of-the-rest Bordeaux progressed, though Lille took Bordeaux to extra time. Metz also advanced, as did Paris St. Germain, beating Bastia. Division II Sedan, Amiens, and Dijon progressed against similar opposition, and Division V Carquefou took on Marseille, and won 1:0. We'll just repeat that, for those who think we've made a misprint.
Carquefou (V) beat Marseille (I) 1:0.
In Scotland, the upsets continue: Celtic lost 1:0 to Aberdeen, St Johnstone beat St Mirren 3:1, and Rangers were held to a 1:1 draw with Partick Thistle. It's now impossible for Rangers to make up their domestic commitments and play in the UEFA Cup final without playing three games in one week, or playing opposite the international next week.
Other cup news: Serbia is now an all-Belgrade affair, with Crvena Zvezda, OFK, Zemun, and Partizan making the semis. The Dutch final will be between Feyenoord and Roda JC. Germany's final will pit Borussia Dortmund against Bayern München. In Greece, the semis will include Olympiakos, Atromitos, Thrasyvoulos, and Aris Salonika. In Spain, Getafe and Valencia will dispute the cup.
And it was upsetweek in Italy, where seven of the eight matches that could end in upsets, did end in upsets.
The Upset-o-meter
55 Carquefou - Marseille 1:0
41 Lazio - Roma 3:2
39 Napoli - Fiorentina 2:0
39 Celtic - Aberdeen 0:1
38 Valencia - Barcelona 3:0
38 Genclerbirligi - Galatasaray 1:0
34 St Mirren - St Johnstone 1:3
33 Lorient - Metz 0:1
33 Cagliari - Atlanta 1:0
31 Parma - Palermo 2:1
31 AC Milan - Sampdoria 1:2
23 Rangers - Partick 1:1
19 Genoa - Internazionale 1:1
15 Empoli - Juventus 0:0
Advance notice of what might happen this week-end, and it's only Scotland that decides this: Gretna will change division before the clocks go back (again!) and be relegated if Kilmarnock beats Inverness, St Mirren wins at Aberdeen, and Celtic beat Gretna. Ross County will be promoted as Division C champions if they beat Raith, and Airdrie fails to beat Peterhead. Berwick will be relegated from the same division if they fail to beat Brechin, or Cowdenbeath beats Ayr.
linkpage
Fri 04 Apr 2008
Quarter-finals begin
We'll begin with the European League Quarter-Final, First Leg.
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1
Inter M 0:0
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b]
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2 [35]
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1
Barcelona 3:1
--------------------------
Roma 2:2
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
So the 200th meeting of Arsenal and Liverpool ends with a small advantage to the Stadiennes. CSKA have their work cut out to reach the semi-final, squandering a good first hour. Schalke really should have scored against Barca, with all the posession they had, while the Buccaneers may as well book their tickets for the semi already.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4 [33]
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
A very strange pair of results from CONCACAF world cup qualifying. The British Virgin Islands do not have a stadium of high enough quality to stage any sort of qualifying match, so agreed to shift their home game to Nassau.
26 Mar Nassau BAHAMAS; Bahamas - British Virgin Islands 1:1
30 Mar Nassau BAHAMAS; British Virgin Islands - Bahamas 2:2
3:3 after two legs, Bahamas win 2:1 on away goals, even though both legs were played in the Bahamas. The winners will go on to lose heavily against Jamaica.
Highlights of the week-end's programme include Gencebirligi against Galatasaray, Helsingborgs versus Halmstads, Rennes -v- Bordeaux, Marseille -v- Lyon (SET2, 7.55 Sunday), Borussia Dortmund -v- Bayer Leverkusen, and the 201st meeting between Arsenal and Liverpool.
Also, Metz will be relegated from League 1 unless they're very lucky. Porto will be confirmed as Portugese league champions if they win, or both Benfica and Guimares don't. Leiria will be relegated unless they're very lucky. PSV will wrap up the Dutch league and avoid the play-off nonsense if they win and Ajax lose. Helpful results can also clinch Beitar Jerusalem the championship in Israel. Congratulations to Llanelli, champions in Wales; Dudelange, champions in Luxembourg; to Vaduz, winners of the cup in Liechtenstein; and to Aldershot, winners of the Conference Shield, a made-for-television tournament that (unlike UEFA's) is actually televised.
linkpage
Fri 11 Apr 2008
Those Dutch play-offs in full
The Dutch play-offs begin soon. While the whole play-off system is complex, this year's looks to be so confusing that even we're having difficulty.
The champions - probably PSV Eindhoven - will be exempt from the play-offs, and go straight to the group phase of the European League. The winner of the cup - Feyenoord or Roda - is assured a place in the Final Qualifying Round of the UEFA Cup. But the exact structure of the play-off depends on where the cup-winner finishes. The cup is played in a fallow week-end between the end of the league and the start of the play-offs.
The easiest case is if the cup-winner finishes 6th or below. In this case, the winner is exempt from the play-offs and goes off to the UEFA Cup. Positions 2-5 play off for one EL qualification round and two UEFA Cup places; the last side plays the winner of a contest involving the next four sides (probably 6-10) for the last UEFA spot, the loser of that play-off goes into the Intertoto.
However, if Feyenoord wins the cup and finishes in the top five (Roda can't get that high), they will join the play-offs, hoping for the European League berth. 6-9 will play out, and 10-13 will also have a contest of their own. The theory is that 2-5 all go into Europe, the winner of 6-9 joins them, and the runner-up of 6-9 plays the champion of 10-13 for the Intertoto spot. However, should Feyenoord take the EL spot, Roda cascades into the UEFA Cup-Loser's Cup, and the winner of 6-9 only gets the Intertoto berth. Unless that is Roda, in which case the side they beat does get to play against 10-13.
Something more simple next week: the rules to Mornington Crescent.
European League
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1:2
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1:4
Inter M 0:0 Liverpool
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b] CSKA Kens
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2:1
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1:3
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0:0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1:1
Barcelona 3:1 Barcelona
--------------------------
Roma 2:2 Manch B
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0:0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2:1
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
For much of the game, it looked as though the 202nd meeting between Arsenal and the Stadiennes would end in a 1:1 draw, as had meetings 201 and 200. But no, four goals in the last quarter-hour blew open the game. Liverpool was flattered by the scoreline, but clearly better. They'll play CSKA Kensington for the 833rd and 834th time in the last five seasons. In the bottom half, Barcelona held on for another nervy performance, while the Buccaneers sat back and soaked up Roma's pressure before scoring on the break.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1:1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1:1 [c]
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2 Bayern M
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1 Zenit St P
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1:1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4:0
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0:0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0:2
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0 Rangers
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1:2
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1:0
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] 2:2 in extra time, Bayern wins on away goals.
Bayern München really do like leaving things late: the equaliser came in the 89th minute, and even though Getafe scored twice in the opening five minutes of extra time, Bayern responded with two in the last five minutes. Pity the fans at the other end of the ground, or who were watching ITV, and saw none of the six goals. Elsewhere, Bayer Leverkusen won a drab match in St Petersburg, but Zenit still progress. Fiorentina overcame PSV, and Rangers won their match away to Sporting Lisbon. Useless fact of the season: Rangers has been drawn at home in the first leg of all six European League and UEFA Cup ties they've played this season, and they've not even played Westbromwich.
Rangers's fixture pile-up is now acute: in addition to already-scheduled games, the side has two postponed league games, plus anything up to two more matches in the Scottish Cup even after this Saturday's quarter-final. Expect reschedulings or a reserve side in some matches.
linkpage
Fri 18 Apr 2008
Cup of Wisdom
We noted on Tuesday how the Scottish FA was gunning for the cup runner-up not to qualify for the Cup-Losers' Cup section of the UEFA Cup. Sounds like Serbia will be joining in the cries: the semi-finals threw Partisan against Crvena Zvedza, with Partisan winning. Their opponents will be Belgrade's 4th club, Zemun, which is facing a battle for survival in Division II.
France could yet share those concerns, even though Carquefou's gallant run is finally over, beaten 1:0 against Paris St. Germain. Lyon beat Metz, Sedan (II) beat Bordeaux on kicks from the penalty mark, and Amiens overcame Dijon in an all-division II match. Lyon are almost certain to be in the European League, and PSG has already qualified through winning the League Cup. Not that that'll necessarily save them from relegation to Division II. The two sides have been kept apart in the semi-final draw, postponing the possibility of another Cup Loser From Division II.
Of interest: the Irish Independent reviews the case for and against an all-Ireland league.
Turning now to the correspondence file, where Mr. Pokery wondered about the rating of Carquefou, and the 20% rule-of-thumb we've proposed for lower divisions. Mr. Pokery wrote,
1. Are you prepared to accept the existence of negative ratings sufficiently far down the beatpath, or will ratings eventually fall to the likes of (25,5) rather than (-300,60)?
Though it's not explicitly declared in the original formulae, it's very difficult - but not impossible - for the Rating component to pass 0.
As an example, suppose that a pub team, WLOG Sunday (1, 0.2) played Manchester Buccaneer's first team (1273, 82). The Expected result for WLOG Sunday (the E|... term) is 0.000836, so a loss will rob them of -0.000836 points, and give the Buccaneers a roughly similar figure.
However, if WLOG Sunday played WLOG Saturday (1, 0.2), then the loser would have a rating of about (0.5, 0.19). Iterate this a few times, and it is possible for the score to end up below zero. This could always be resolved by a linear adjustment such that RNew = ROld + 100, and an appropriate adjustment to RDs. Alternatively, one could follow the USCF lead and arbitrarily determine that no rating shall ever fall below a pre-determined floor (they say 100, which translates to 67 in this model.)
Obviously this is outwith the scope of your current work, but the
assumption that the fall is 20% per division is (a) a heck of an assumption and
(b) one of the most interesting parts of the system. It would be interesting to
see in practice whether Scotland's small divisions lead to greater or smaller
relative gaps between the divisions, and whether (e.g.) France's system
regionalising so much earlier than England's system makes much of a difference
here.
Anecdotally (by eyeballing the performance of promoted teams in the English pyramid during the 80s, and Germany post-unification), it appears to be closer to 20% worse for every 20 teams between. The rule appears to hold where there is a 1:1 correspondence between upper and lower division, and there is no change from part-time to full-time. It's reasonable to suppose that where there's bifurcation (say, between England V and VI-N and S) the divisions are of a standard between a national VI and VII.
Lest we forget, the Glicko rankings began in the world of chess, where a player needs to have a minimal level of skill (roughly, knowing the rules on the board) to play. On this basis, one could reasonably define a cut-off point beyond which the sides might reasonably be deemed Unranked. Off the top of our head, if the quality of play falls by 20% for every 20 teams, sides in the 7th division of English football would have a nominal rating of about (200, 40), and that's something like 13RD from the highest teams. At this scale, comparisons are quite clearly For Entertainment Only. I'd be reluctant to regularly quote for sides in England VIII, or below France V, or (in the new German structure) below Division V.
Those reforms in Germany? There will be a 3. Liga from next season, with the Regionalliga moving to the fourth level, and increasing in number to three. The Oberligas will reduce to eight, with Nordrhein and Westfalen merging. The net effect is to keep (roughly) the same number of teams nationally at Oberliga or above, but with a new national contest.
Final round of matches in the Netherlands and Greece on Sunday. PSV Eindhoven will win the Dutch league unless they lose and Ajax win. (TV: Vitesse Arnhem - PSV, Set1, taped to 6pm Sun) Olympiakos are two points clear of AEK in Greece. Other matches of note include Toulouse - Bordeaux, Barcelona - Espanyol, Grasshoppers - Zurich, and the German cup final between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München. (TV: Set2, 7pm Sat)
linkpage
Tue 22 Apr 2008
Into extra time
Beginning with the week-end's upsets.
43 Scunthorpe United - Cardiff City 3:2
39 Levante - Getafe 3:1
37 Catania - Lazio 1:0
36 Manchester City - Portsmouth 3:1
35 Nürnberg - Wolfsburg 1:0
34 Nice - Monaco 0:2
33 Seville - Almeria 1:4
32 Real Zaragosa - Recreativo de Huelva 3:0
32 Lens - Sochaux 3:2
32 Atletico Madrid - Real Betis 1:3
31 Barnsley - Leicester City 0:1
30 St. Etienne - Lorient 1:0
30 Marseille - Lille 1:3
26 St Johnstone - Rangers 0:0
20 AS Roma - Livorno 1:1
17 Blackburn Rovers - Manchester United 1:1
We'll begin with the German cup final, which Bayern won, only after extra time against Borussia Dortmund. In the one 1. Bundesliga match of the week-end, Nürnburg eased their relegation fears and just about ended Wolfsburg's hopes for the UEFA Cup. The relegation battle in England is becoming interesting; Derby are long gone, Fulham look set to join them, but many sides are still looking nervously at that last spot: Birmingham currently occupy it, and lost 5:1 to city rivals Aston Villa. It's a sign of how far Paris St. Germain has fallen that their 3:0 loss at Caen is not a surprise. Queen of the South qualified for Europe on Sunday, though St Johnstone did their best to make them work for it by taking Rangers to kicks from the penalty mark in their cup semi-final. Finally, there were titles for PSV Eindhovan, Standard Liege, and Rapid Vienna.
The Rest of Europe
Austria
GRA 800 158.4 0 0.00
RAP 786 130.9 43 0.33
AWI 715 123.1 -37 -0.30
Belgium
LIE 962 124.3 42 0.34
AND 890 105.6 18 0.17
BRU 874 131.3 38 0.29
WRG 749 119.1 -31 -0.26
BEV 513 194.7 0 0.00
Bulgaria
CSS 943 144.9 0 0.00
LIT 819 134.2 61 0.45
LSF 787 125.3 -52 -0.42
Switzerland
BAS 1013 107.7 7 0.06
ZUR 869 115.7 - 4 -0.03
GRZ 838 110.7 24 0.22
THU 612 119.6 -31 -0.26
Czechia
SLP 980 109.6 17 0.16
PRG 906 112.9 36 0.32
BLV 853 117.6 9 0.08
LIB 812 128.3 -90 -0.70
TEP 730 137.2 0 0.00
Denmark
COP 924 117.1 - 5 -0.04
ODE 909 120.3 35 0.29
AAL 905 134.7 46 0.34
BRO 764 134.5 -90 -0.67
Greece
OLY 1098 102.1 -33 -0.32
PAN 1072 102.6 24 0.23
AEK 948 99.1 59 0.60
LAR 852 111.3 21 0.19
ASS 815 105.6 - 8 -0.08
PAO 805 109.3 -64 -0.59
PIO 793 108.0 -12 -0.11
AIG 535 183.5 0 0.00
Croatia
DZA 769 160.2 0 0.00
Israel
HTA 913 130.6 0 0.00
MPT 868 142.3 - 2 -0.01
MHA 858 134.8 2 0.01
Netherlands
AJX 1107 110.1 19 0.17
PSV 1050 92.1 -50 -0.54
FEY 981 114.4 55 0.48
HEE 937 119.1 -24 -0.20
AZA 874 106.6 -29 -0.27
UTR 816 121.1 -23 -0.19
Norway
ROS 885 123.7 -24 -0.19
VIK 827 153.1 83 0.54
TRO 819 145.8 -40 -0.27
BRN 812 139.9 0 0.00
VRG 680 142.9 1 0.01
Poland
WIS 832 200.0 0 0.00
Portugal
PTO 1139 107.3 19 0.18
SLS 1071 91.7 23 0.25
BEN 950 95.3 -54 -0.57
GUI 918 140.1 0 0.00
BRG 887 109.4 -18 -0.16
Romania
RBU 1030 158.4 0 0.00
STE 873 139.3 0 0.00
DIB 866 150.0 0 0.00
Serbia
CRV 743 129.2 -57 -0.44
PBG 736 149.3 80 0.54
Russia
ZSP 1001 99.2 41 0.41
SPM 979 114.2 2 0.02
LOK 932 120.4 - 3 -0.02
CSK 912 124.3 3 0.02
Sweden
HEL 868 135.6 -24 -0.18
ELF 762 165.5 0 0.00
HAL 694 178.0 47 0.26
Slovakia
ART 682 185.1 0 0.00
Turkey
FEN 1127 99.7 40 0.40
BES 1004 113.7 -28 -0.25
GAL 890 104.1 -36 -0.35
GEN 757 124.6 60 0.48
Ukraine
SHA 959 121.5 33 0.27
KYV 950 127.9 0 0.00
DNI 830 137.3 -43 -0.31
Greatest gainers were AEK Athens, following three wins in domestic competition; Viking Stavanger and Partisan Belgrade, both beating two home sides; and Gencebirligi, one big win for a lowly-ranked side. PSV may have won their league, but also left European competition this month, as did Benfica. PAOK Salonica, Brondby, and Slovan Liberec all lost to much lower opposition.
linkpage
Fri 25 Apr 2008
Intertoto Draw Time
That Last Ever Intertoto Draw in Full
South-East
--------------------------------
Croatia
Macedonia Israel Spain
--------------------------------
Serbia
Greece Italy
--------------------------------
Bos-Herz
Montenegro Turkey Portugal
--------------------------------
Albania* Switzerland
Cyprus
Malta Bulgaria
Slovenia
--------------------------------
Central-Med
--------------------------------
Luxembrg Russia
Georgia Germany
--------------------------------
Azerbaijan Belgium
Slovakia Romania
--------------------------------
Armenia France
Moldova Ukraine
--------------------------------
Poland Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan Czechia
Hungary
--------------------------------
Northern
--------------------------------
Lithuania Netherlands
Estonia Norway
--------------------------------
Nor Ire
Finland Denmark England
--------------------------------
Faroes Scotland
Sweden
- - - - - - -
Latvia
Iceland
Rep Ire
Wales
--------------------------------
To explain the bottom entry, Latvia, Iceland, Ireland, and Wales will provide one team to the third round, to play Scotland or Sweden.
Albania is currently suspended from competition owing to government interference; if this suspension is still in force in mid-June, their place would be taken by Andorra.
European League
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1:2
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1:4
Inter M 0:0 Liverpool 1
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b] CSKA Kens 1
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2:1
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1:3
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0:0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1:1
Barcelona 3:1 Barcelona 0
--------------------------
Roma 2:2 Manch B 0
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0:0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2:1
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
Two matches, two goals, no winners. Liverpool's goal was a cracker, but the side also conceded a rather soft own goal. Barcelona and the Buccaneers fought out a rather tedious goalless draw.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1:1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1:1 [c]
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2 Bayern M 1
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1 Zenit St P 1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1:1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4:0
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0:0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0:2
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0 Rangers 0
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina 0
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1:2
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1:0
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] 2:2 in extra time, Bayern wins on away goals.
We're struggling to come up with something good to say about the Rangers game, and haven't seen highlights of the game of the night. Another brilliant piece of judgement from ITV, bringing boring draws to your television set every week.
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Tue 29 Apr 2008
Going long
The calendar for next season has been published. The Football League will run from 9 August to 2 May; Division I will play from 16 August to 23 May. The second round of the Cup drifts back to 29 November, allowing a round of the Vase, Trophy, and Conference Shield before Christmas. There will be matches on Fri 26 and Sun 28 December, but none on 1 January. The Cup reaches the last eight on 7 March, but international commitments and Easter mean that the semis don't take place until 18 April, and the final's not until 30 May, a week after the play-off finals for the League. It's the latest grand final date, beating the final of the weather-hit 1963 season (25 May) and the 1982 replay (27 May).
Meanwhile, reaction has been pouring in to the SFA's decision to publish a Schedule A and a Schedule B, depending on whether Rangers make the UEFA Cup final. We think this is a brilliant move, not only because it means Rangers don't have to play six games in one day, but also because it reminds us of the days when the Radio Times would list different television schedules depending on how the second round of the World Cup was divvied up, only to find that they'd gone for some completely different split altogether. Dion Fanning in the Independant on Sunday proposes even more radical alterations.
Upsets
41 Galarasaray - Fenebahce 1:0
38 Watford - Scunthorpe United 0:1
37 Manchester City - Fulham 2:3
36 Genoa - Empoli 0:1
34 Norwich City - Queen's Park Rangers 3:0
33 Valladolid - Almeria 1:0
32 St Mirren - Falkirk 1:0
32 D.La Coruna - Barcelona 2:0
32 Celtic - Rangers 3:2
21 Birmingham City - Liverpool 2:2
15 Murcia - Sevilla 0:0
The titles in Spain (Real Madrid) and Germany (Bayern München) are decided, barring some of the biggest shocks in history. Not so in England, where a late penalty gave CSKA Kensington a 2:1 victory over the Buccaneers, putting the sides level on points, though the side from Trafford has a far superior goal difference. Scotland's also open: Celtic enjoys a 5-point lead over Rangers, but has played three more games. Finally, the lack of games from France and Germany in the upset list is not down to laziness, but because there were no upsets: six draws in the nine 1. Bundesliga games rather put paid to shocks there.
Europe's First and Second XI
Changes from 18 March.
01 +2 CHE 1251 77.2
02 -- MUN 1249 78.1
03 -2 INT 1228 82.1
04 -- ROM 1180 76.9
05 +2 LIV 1179 75.9
06 +5 RMD 1164 78.6
07 -2 BAR 1158 74.2
08 +1 VIL 1158 78.5
09 +5 PTO 1153 105.6
10 +8 BAY 1145 76.1
11 +5 JVE 1139 82.2
12 -4 ANL 1133 78.4
13 -7 SEV 1124 78
14 -2 LYN 1124 79
15 ne DEP 1123 80.5
16 +4 AJX 1107 111.5
17 ne MAL 1103 78.4
18 -8 OLY 1098 103.6
19 re BDX 1092 77.6
20 +1 FEN 1085 98.7
21 ne FIO 1081 72.1
22 ne SAN 1075 76.3
Out of the top 22 go Getafe (13-33), Hamburg (15-47), Portsmouth (17-23), Bayer Leverkusen (19-44), and Everton (22-34).
The national averages, taking the top five sides:
en 1176.8
es 1151.6
it 1127
de 1058
fr 1057.6
gr 950.8
sc 892.8
Neither Portugal nor the Netherlands has five sides with RDs below 120; no other nation has five sides in the ranking.
Monte Carlo Model
01 +3 Manchester Buccaneers
02 +1 CSKA Kensington
03 -1 Internazionale
04 -3 Roma
05 +2 Real Madrid
06 -1 Barcelona
07 +3 Liverpool Stadiennes
08 +7 Villarreal
09 -3 Porto
10 +6 Ajax
11 +7 Juventus
12 +9 Bayern München
13 ne Deportivo la Coruna
14 -5 Arsenal
15 -4 Olympiakos
16 -3 Lyon
17 -5 Fenebahçe
18 -10Sevilla
19 -5 Sporting Lisbon
20 +2 Panathanaikos
21 ne Mallorca
22 ne Almeria
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Fri 02 May 2008
European Competition Finals
European League
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1:2
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1:4
Inter M 0:0 Liverpool 1:1
-------------------------- [c]
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b] CSKA Kens 1:1
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2:1
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1:3
CSKA Kens 0:3 CSKA Kens
=============================================
Schalke 1:0 [a] Manch B
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0:0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1:1
Barcelona 3:1 Barcelona 0:0
--------------------------
Roma 2:2 Manch B 0:1
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0:0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2:1
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] - CSKA Kensington wins 2:1 in extra time.
Another tedious, goal-free snore-fest between the Buccaneers and Barcelona. Goal-free, that is, apart from the goal, which was a speculative shot to nothing. After this match, we knew the European League would have an all-English final, played in that well-known English seaside resort of Moscow. We also knew that England would take the number one spot in the UEFA rankings for only the second time in the country's history: the previous occasion had been in the five years ending 1985, and was curtailed only by of political interference from UEFA.
We were expecting another tedious, goal-free snore-fest between the Stadiennes and CSKA Kensington, not least because seven meetings in the previous four seasons have produced just five goals, and one of those never crossed the line. This time, though, the sides manages a goal each in normal time, CSKA went 2:0 up in extra time, only for the visiting Stadiennes to pull one back and force a nervy final few minutes.
The result, though, is that the final between CSKA and the Buccaneers will take place at that well-known English city of Moscow. Won't Kensington enjoy home advantage?
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
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Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1:1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1:1 [c]
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2 Bayern M 1:0
=============================-------------- [36]
Galatasary 0:1 Zenit St P 1:4
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1:1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4:0
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2 Zenit St P
=======================================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0:0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0:2
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0 Rangers 0:0
=============================-------------- [d]
Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina 0:0
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1:2
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1:0
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] 2:2 in extra time, Bayern wins on away goals.
[d] 0:0 in extra time; Rangers won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
The surprise in the first semi wasn't so much that Zenit won their game so easily - 4:0 didn't flatter them in the slightest - but that München crumbled so easily. Zenit took the lead in the third minute, after Kahn was unsighted at a free-kick, and though Bayern threatened, they rather gave up after falling 2:0 down. Next stop, Manchester; after that, the European League.
The nightcap was a poor game, Rangers content to soak up the pressure and hope to hit on the break. Neither side found their range, and the game had KFTPM written all over it. Though Rangers missed their first spot kick, that was all they missed, the Scottish League will be running its Schedule B, and West Coast need to lay on some extra trains.
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Fri 09 May 2008
Pyramid, Scotland, Netherlands
England has won the UEFA Fair Play league, and the top side in the domestic fair play table (almost certainly Manchester City) will join the UEFA Cup in its first qualifying round in mid-July. The two lottery slots will be between Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Germany, Spain and France; the draw will take place at half-time in next Wednesday's UEFA Cup final - appropriately, at the Commonwealth Arena, Manchester City's home ground.
Though the decision on which sides join which leagues won't be made until next week, we know most of the promoted and relegated sides from the bottom half of the English pyramid:
V
Prom - Aldershot Town, Cambridge Utd / Exeter
Rel - Droylsden, Stafford, Farsley Celtic, Altrincham
VI (N)
Prom - Kettering, Stalybridge / Barrow
Rel - Leigh RMI, Vauxhall Motors, Hucknall Town
VI (S)
Prom - Lewes, Eastbourne
Rel - Sutton, Dorchester, Cambridge City*
VII (N)
Prom - Fleetwood, Gateshead
Rel - Leek, Stamford, Lincoln Utd
VII (S)
Prom - King's Lynn, Team Bath
Rel - Bedford, Bromsgrove, Cirencester, Cheshunt
VII (SE)
Prom - Chelmsford, Wimbledon
Rel - Leyton, Folkestone, East Thurrock, Borehamwood
VIII (N-N)
Prom - Bradford Park Avenue, Manchester United
Rel - (none)
VIII (N-S)
Prom - Cammell Laird, Nantwich
Rel - Alsager*
VIII (S-M)
Prom - Evesham, Stourbridge
Rel - Malvern, Berkhamstead**
VIII (S-SW)
Prom - Farnborough, Oxford City
Rel - Newport IOW, Slough**
VIII (SE-N)
Prom - Dartford, Canvey Island
Rel - Edgware*, Wivenhoe**
VIII (SE-S)
Prom - Dover, Tooting & Mitcham
Rel - Horsham YMCA, Molesey**
* - Relegated for non-playing reasons
** - Candidates for reprieve if Division VIII (N) divisions expand to 22 sides.
Promoted from Division IX: Trafford, Salford, Atherstone, Loughborough Dynamo, Glapwell, Crowborough, Merstham, Concord Rangers, Soham, North Leigh, Totton, Truro, Thamesmead, Beaconsfield SYCOB.
Upsets
38 ARIS Salonika - AEK Athens 4:0
33 Bayer Leverkusen - Hertha Berlin 1:2
31 B. Dortmund - Stuttgart 3:2
30 Getafe - Almeria 4:2
19 Catania - Roma 1:1
They're breathing a sigh of relief in France, where PSG and Lyon beat lower-league Amiens and Sedan by 1:0, ensuring they'll meet in the cup final, and there will be an additional UEFA Cup place released for a side finishing at the top of League 1.
No surprises in Ukraine, where Shakhtar beat Dinamo in the cup. Nor in Serbia, as Partizan overcame lower-league opposition. If Partizan conspires to lose the league to Crvena Zvezda (unlikely) then Obscura Beograd are frozen out, not even to play a Cup-Loser's Cup match against Queen of the South.
Those Dutch play-offs in full
Turning now to correspondence, and Mr. Pokery wrote about the play-offs in the Netherlands.
The obvious question is why they thought that would be a desirable state of affairs to bring about. The only suggestion that springs to mind is that the play-offs are made for TV.
The logic seems to be that (almost) every side has something to play for in these play-offs, and (yes) the league becomes much more attractive to television. After the 34-game season, and assuming the cup-winner's place goes to a top-five side, the Eredivise is scheduled to split into seven bits:
1 - Champions. Season ends.
2-5 - European League playoff. Winner goes to the European League; others to the UEFA Cup.
6-9 - UEFA playoff. Winner to the UEFA Cup.
10-13 - Intertoto playoff. Winner plays off against runner-up from UEFA playoff for the Intertoto berth.
14-15 - Nothing to do. Season ends.
18 - Relegated. Season ends.
16-17 go into a relegation playoff, with six sides from Eerste Divise, where the champion is automatically promoted. The season in the lower league is divided into six periods of six games, and the winner of each period (or highest side not yet through) qualifies for the playoff, along with the two (usually three, because the champ will have won a period) highest sides in the final table not already qualified. The sides are ranked by their overall positions. First round is a simple home-and-away between Eerste 6-9. Winners join with Eerste 2-5 and the Eredivise sides, at which point the ties become best-of-three; if the first two games don't produce a clear winner, away goals or kicks from the penalty mark decide home advantage for the third game. Two winners take Eredivise places, and the draw should pit Er 16 against Ee 3 and Er 17 against Ee 2, keeping apart the Eredivise sides, and top two Eerste sides.
This year, there's a slightly different format, because the cup winner isn't in the top five.
1 - Champions. Season ends.
2-5 - European League playoff. Winner goes to the European League; losing finalist and 3rd place to the UEFA Cup.
6-10 - UEFA playoff. Winner plays off against 4th from EL for the remaining UEFA Cup spot; loser to Intertoto. Cup winner will not participate.
11-15 - Nothing to do. Season ends.
16-17 - Relegation playoffs, as before.
18 - Relegated. Season ends.
Next year, the play-offs become a little more simple: the top two go through to the European League, the cup-winners and next two go through to the UEFA Cup, and there's a four-team play-off between the sides immediately below for that last spot. The relegation playoffs remain.
Scotland
If there is logic to them, I wonder whether it might be a more sensible model to follow for Scotland's top league of 12 than the (actually reasonably sensibly designed and unjustly maligned) current 3½ matches per opponent per season.
A few observations here:
1) The Scottish clubs like having Rangers and Celtic visit twice a year. It keeps them rich. Reducing that to once would be such a financial kick that it'll not happen easily.
2) We're having great difficulty understanding the model above, and we've just described it. Try explaining that to your stereotypical football fan who's had a few tinnies. Especially that bit about the periods: should East Fife get a chance at promotion because easy fixtures allowed them 16 points in December and naff all elsewhere?
3) To have a promotion / relegation playoff would require Division B to finish at about the same time as Division A, not a month (plus Rangers delays) earlier. (With a will, this is not insurmountable.)
All that said, if Scotland were to revert to 16 or 18 teams in Division A, a Division B of similar size, and cutting some teams loose to regional amateur leagues, we reckon an arrangement like this would make for a good way to end the season, certainly better than the current playing out for pride amongst the bottom six. Fewer games might also avoid the fixture congestion we've seen this year, but then why has this occurred? The fixture pile-up has many causes:
- Rangers' success in reaching the final of every competition they've entered, playing (by our quick reckoning) 69 matches since last July.
- An artefact of the problems at Motherwell, both with their pitch and following the untimely death of Phil O'Donnell
- The postponement of Rangers' last-32 cup tie at East Stirlingshire, the SFA's refusal to allow the last-16 replay on an international mid-week, and a replay in the last-8.
- The postponement of matches to allow Scotland players a week off before the international against Italy; and to allow Rangers a clear week before Lyon.
- The length of the Scottish season, playing a 20-team league amongst 12 sides.
As we say, the most radical move would be to extend Division A so that the regular season was 30 games (16 clubs, as in Portugal) or 34 games (18 clubs, as in the Netherlands and Germany). This would allow the regular season to have very few mid-week matches and still end in late April, possibly with play-offs to decide promotion, relegation, and the last UEFA Cup place. Rangers (and Celtic, who could easily face a similar problem in a future season) would be in favour of this reform, and we can bet that the sides currently on the cusp of promotion from Division B would love it.
The smaller clubs in the top flight would still be less happy, because they would only receive two visits from Rangers and Celtic, not the three or four they have at the moment. On the other hand, would the additional security of knowing that they'll have those visits for the forseeable future help to raise security? Is there a case for some gate sharing (for instance, 5% of the net turnstile proceeds goes to the visiting club at the end of the season)?
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