A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Thu 19 Nov 2009

Les Irlandais le méritaient plus, l'arbitre a sauvé les tricolores

So, for the penultimate time, the results from the World Cup preparation.

Africa: Group E playoff
   Algeria 1-0 Egypt

Europe: playoffs
  Ukraine 0-1 Greece
Greece win 1:0 on aggregate

  Slovenia 1-0 Russia
2:2 on aggregate
Slovenia win 1:0 on away goals

Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-1 Portugal
  Portugal win 2:0 on aggregate

   France 0-1 Ireland
1-1 on aggregate
France win* 1-0 in extra time

Americas: playoffs
   Uruguay 1-1 Costa Rica
Uruguay win 2-1 on aggregate

Algeria qualified with a workmanlike victory, Greece with a chancer's goal, Slovenia with their late away goal on Saturday, and both Portugal and Uruguay ground out wins over slightly but clearly inferior opposition.

And then there was France, who qualified* after Thierry Henry openly handled the ball, tipped it to William Gallas, who scored* the winner* that has put France through*. It's been compared to Diego Maradona's goal* against England in 1986; by refusing to acknowledge that he had broken the rules, Henry joined the ranks of the contemptable cheats. The Football Association of Ireland has lodged a formal protest against last night's result*, citing FIFA's example of overturning a result in the play-offs for 2006. Unless they qualify on sporting merit, rather than being better cheaters than Ireland, we'll be marking France's progress* in the world cup with the infamous Asterisk of Not Strictly True.

The presumptive qualifiers

We're assuming that FIFA will seed the hosts, defending champions, and six more sides, then split the remaining teams along geographic lines. Europe fills one pot exactly. Africa sends five teams, Asia four, Oceania one, so while we've paired Africa with South America, it's possible that Africa may end up with North America. Here's the line-up we expect to see on 4 December.

Pot 1 - seeds South Africa (hosts), France* (defending champs), Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina.
Pot of Europe Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, Slovakia, Slovenia.
Pot of Africa / South America Ghana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile.
Pot of Asia / CONCACAF PR Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, DPR Korea, Mexico, FARCE, Honduras

We've put Asia with CONCACAF to roughly equalise the strength of the sides, and to avoid a Group of Pisseasy: Spain, Slovenia, DPR Korea, Honduras. Quite how Spain would mess up that group is beyond us. There are chances of two minnows being drawn together, but if Africa and South America are paired, three is unlikely.

The draw takes place on 4 December, coverage begins on BBC2 at 5.15 - expect the main action from 6pm.

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