Wednesday's raft of friendlies was headed by the clash of the Mediterranean giants, Spain beat Italy 1:0. World champions France beat England by the same scoreline, while European champions Greece beat Portugal 2:1 in a repeat of the 2004 final. This year's co-hosts Austria scored three, but the Dutch hit the net four times. Germany beat Switzerland 4:0, Ukraine overcame Serbia 2:0, and Poland lost 3:0 to Canada (South). Though European Knockout champions Lithuania weren't in action, Northern Ireland trounced the last holders Georgia 4:1. Malta showed that they can pull out some good results, beating Liechtenstein by 7 (SEVEN):1. Surprise of the night was from Podgorica, where Montenegro beat the Norwegian side that narrowly missed out on this summer's tournament by 3:1.
Upset-o-logy
In comments, Mr. Pokery asks how we calculated the Upset-o-meter figures for Carquefou. More than usually, this is All A Bit of Fun, but the mathematics are reasonably sound.
Over the years, it's become clear that Division I in England tends to operate in a range of 850-1150 points, central figure (geometric mean) around 975; and Division II in a range of 600-850, central figure around 750. Our early work suggests that Division III has a central figure somewhere around 625. The results from six relegated sides in Spain suggest that, again, there's a drop of about 20% between the middle of one division and the middle of the next. We haven't got enough data from the other European leagues, owing to the high quality of last year's sides relegated to League 2, and the low quality to Serie B and 2. Bundesliga.
Compounding this adjustment against the central figure from France's League 1 (960) suggests a side in France V will have a rating somewhere around 400. We define the RD to be one-fifth of R, as it is for unknown sides in the top divisions, giving Carquefou a nominal Glickoblog score of (400, 80).
Plugging that in against Marseille gave the 55-point upset we mentioned. By comparison, Havant and Waterlooville (England VI) have a nominal Glickoblog score of (325, 65), ensuring that their match against Liverpool Stadiennes stood to be a 58-point upset.
At these vast gaps, the difference between the ratings is relatively unimportant - if we set Carquefou to have an impossible rating of (0, 80), it's still only a 60-point upset. The key factor is the RD, and particularly the number of combined RDs between the two sides: increase Carquefou to (400, 160), and the upset is a "mere" 44 points.
As we say, this is all to be taken with a large truck-load of salt, and treated as entertainment only.
Coming attractions
This week-end:
- Derby (EN-1) will be relegated if they lose and Birmingham or Bolton win.
- Gretna (SC-A) will be relegated unless they beat St Mirren.
- Berwick (SC-C) will be relegated if they do not win or Cowdenbeath does not lose.
- Ross (SC-C) will be promoted with a win or draw against Clydebank.
- PSV Eindhoven (NL) will be champions if they win and Ajax does not.
- Dinamo Zagreb (HR) will be champions if they win and Hajduk Split does not.
Other highlights include derby matches in Prague and Glasgow (SET1, 12.30 Saturday), the League Cup final in France (PSG - Lens, SET2, 7.50 Sat) and the League Trophy final in England (Grimsby - Franchise). There's Heerenveen - Ajax, Besiktas - Fenebaçhe, AEK Athens - Olympiakos, Liverpool Stadiennes - Everton, Bordeaux - Nancy, Lazio - Inter, Villarreal - Atlético, and Bayern play Nümberwäng (SET1, 2pm Monday).
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