A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Tue 29 Jan 2008

An event with a 50-year return interval

Not since 1957 has Round 5 of the FA Cup ended without a single replay. We've had a couple of occasions where the fixtures have thrown up just a single draw, most recently in 2003, and a number of times when half the matches were tied, as in 1994. But half a century has passed since all sixteen matches were resolved at the first attempt. Only two upsets registered on the Upset-o-meter, Sheffield United (II) required a deflection off a balloon (!) to beat Manchester City 2:1, and Wolves notched up a 4:1 win at Watford (both II).

We came surprisingly close to having a third shock, as Havant and Waterlooville (VI) twice took the league at Liverpool (I), causing commentators across the world to wonder just how large the gap in football was these days. Inevitably, the higher-ranked side lasted better, but didn't take the lead until 55 minutes into the game, and was rather fortunate to come off the field 5:2 winners.

In the world of Glickoblog, we reckon a 30-point upset is interesting that week, a 40-point upset is going to be one of the highlights of the season, and a 50-point upset will be remembered by fans a decade down the line. Had Havant held on for their win, it would have been a 56-point shock, enough to be wheeled out whenever anyone wanted to embarrass Liverpool for the rest of the still-young century. Even a draw would have been a 31-point upset, the second-largest surprise of the round.

Other matters, and we note that Inter Milan has suffered two notable upsets in spite of drawing both its games. This is what happens when a side heads above 1300 points: a draw against 1100-point Juventus was a 14-point surprise, and one against 1030-point Udinese a 17-point upset. Valencia has been on both ends of upsets, dishing one out to Atletico in the cup, but beaten by Almeria in the league; indeed, six of this week-end's nine Spanish league fixtures appear on the upset list.

44 Sheffield United - Manchester City 2:1
41 Aberdeen - Hearts 0:5
38 Tottenham - Arsenal 4:1
37 Lazio - Fiorentina 2:1
37 Espanyol - Betis 1:2
37 Atalanta - AC Milan 2:1
36 Murcia - Levante 2:3
36 Cagliari - Napoli 2:1
35 Sporting Lisbon - Porto 2:0
35 Mallorca - Atl.Madrid 1:0
35 Lorient - Bordeaux 1:0
34 D.La Coruna - Valladolid 3:1
32 Valencia - Atletico Madrid 1:0
31 Valencia - Almeria 0:1
31 Lille - Le Mans 3:1
30 Watford - Wolves 1:4
30 Sochaux  - Valenciennes  1:0
30 Le Mans  - Monaco 1:0

19 Bristol Rovers - Fulham 0:0
17 Udinese - Inter Milan 0:0
16 Athl.Bilbao - Barcelona 1:1
15 Sampdoria - Roma 1:1
14 Inter Milan - Juventus 2:2

The Rest of Europe

Looking only at countries where at least one club has played since 17 December.

Austria

GRA   800   146.4    0   0.00
AWI   752   113.9   14   0.12
RAP   743   124.3    0   0.00

Belgium
LIE   881   124.2   30   0.24
BRU   880   134.4    0   0.00
AND   860   108.3  -18  -0.17
WRG   727   113.8  -25  -0.22
BEV   513   185.1    0   0.00 (II)

Switzerland
BAS  1068   120.0    4   0.03
GRZ   829   130.3    0   0.00
ZUR   771   131.2  -17   -0.13
THU   740   136.4    0   0.00

Czechia
SLP   978   112.5    0   0.00
LIB   860   140.7    0   0.00
BLV   844   113.6  -16  -0.14
PRG   842   112.5    0   0.00
TEP   809   141.8    0   0.00

Denmark
COP   929   106.8  -33  -0.31
ODE   874   127.9    0   0.00
AAL   859   140.1   42   0.30
BRO   854   141.8    0   0.00

Greece
OLY  1155   100.0    7   0.07
PAN  1065   100.6   17   0.17
AEK   968   106.7    4   0.04
ASS   855   103.9  -10  -0.10
PAO   810   118.7  - 9  -0.08
PIO   796   107.3  -43  -0.40
LAR   733   122.2  -29  -0.24
AIG   535   173.2    0   0.00 (II)

Croatia
DZA   769   148.3   24   0.16

Israel
MPT   941   150.9  - 7  -0.05
MHA   909   140.0    6   0.04
HTA   818   128.9   44   0.34

Netherlands
AJX  1103   111.0   34   0.31
PSV  1054   105.0   37   0.35
FEY   953   119.5  -41  -0.34
HEE   947   113.4   31   0.27
AZA   915   103.4  -76  -0.74
UTR   763   122.6  -13  -0.11

Portugal
PTO  1126   103.2  -26  -0.25
SLS  1054   106.7   43   0.40
BEN  1020   104.0   19   0.18
BRG   944   114.4    2   0.02
GUI   829   143.7  -36  -0.25

Serbia
CRV   764   128.9  -25  -0.19
PBG   710   163.2    0   0.00

Russia
LOK   979   118.8    0   0.00
SPM   960   112.5  -38  -0.34
ZSP   916   116.6    0   0.00
CSK   909   117.0    0   0.00

Turkey
FEN  1148   108.0    0   0.00
BES   991   110.8    0   0.00
GAL   884   118.6  -33  -0.28
GEN   713   137.4   24   0.17

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