Like the England cricket team, the NCAA season is bowled out.
The Pre-Christmas Bowls
21/12, 2am, Poinsettia: #38 Utah -v- #44 Navy 35-32 (56% faves) 22/12, 1am, New Orleans: #72 Florida Atlantic -v- #87 Memphis 44-27 (65%) 22/12, 6pm, Alabama: #28 Cincinnati -v- #74 Southern Mississippi 31-21 (85%) 22/12, 9.30, New Mexico: #54 New Mexico -v- #73 Nevada 23-0 (69%) 23/12, 1am, Las Vegas: #16 BYU -v- #39 UCLA 17-16 (73%) 24/12, 1am, Hawaii: #59 E Carolina -v- #18 Boisestate 41-38 (83%)
Some of the games were tighter than we expected, and ECARL pulls off a huge (38-point) upset, beating BSEST in a squeaker.
The Nothing Else To Watch Bowls
27/12, 12.30 Motor City: #61 Central Michigan -v- #46 Purdue 48-51 (60%) 28/12, 1am, Holiday: #12 Arizona Province -v- #11 Texas 34-52 (50%) 28/12, 10pm, Orlando: #14 Boston College -v- #45 Michigan Province 24-21 (80%) 29/12, 1am, Texas: #40 TCU -v- #57 Houston 20-13 (66%) 29/12, 1.30a Emerald: #21 Oregon Territory -v- #36 Maryland 21-14 (66%) 29/12, 6pm, Charlotte: #25 Wake Forest -v- #41 Connecticut 24-10 (64%) 29/12, 9.30p Liberty: #47 UCF -v- #52 Mississippi Territory 3-10 (53%) 30/12, 1am, Alamo: #30 Texas A and M -v- #24 Penn Province 17-24 (55%)
A surprise to find TEXAS such easy winners, given ARZST's strong claims to the top ten. No major surprises in this section.
The Getting Somewhere Bowls
31/12, 1am, Royalist: #62 Alabama -v- #56 Colorado 30-24 (53%) 31/12, 5.30p Armed Rebellion: #32 California -v- #48 Air Force 42-36 (65%) 31/12, 7pm, Sun: #23 Oregon -v- #27 South Florida 21-56 (56%) 31/12, 7pm, Warmongers: #60 Fresnostate -v- #34 Georgia Technology 40-28 (69%) 31/12, 9pm, Music City: #35 Kentucky -v- #37 Florida Territory 35-28 (51%) 01/01, 1am, Atlanta: #20 Auburn -v- #22 Clemson 23-20 (52%) 01/01, 2am, Tempe: #50 Oklahoma Territory -v- #65 Indiana 49-33 (60%)
FRSST pull off a 32-point upset; SFLOR impresses with the size of their win, KNTCY pulls it out in the meaningful matches for once, and AUBRN finally wins a big game.
Success Was So Last Year
01/01, 4pm, Outback: #13 Wisconsin -v- #19 Tennessee 17-21 (57%) 01/01, 4.30p Cotton: #31 Arkansas -v- #9 Missouri 7-38 (75%) 01/01, 6pm, Gator: #29 Virginia -v- #26 Texas Technology 28-31 (52%) 01/01, 6pm, Orlando: #10 Michigan -v- #7 Florida 41-35 (56%)
Did ESPN-UK make the right decision by not showing the Orlando bowl live? Probably not; the replacement was the back end of Cotton, a complete blow-out at half-time. TENSE shows it would have been a better top-ten selection than our preferred WISCO, and TXSTC caps a quality year with a quality win. MICH ends the season +1-1 against last year's official champions, having famously lost to the Division I.V champs on opening week-end.
Top Ten Fourteen
01/01, 9.30p Rose: #2 Southern California -v- #33 Illinois 49-17 (88%) 02/01, 1.30a Sugar: #6 Georgia -v- #15 Hawaii 41-10 (60%) 03/01, 1am, Fiesta: #5 Oklahoma -v- #8 Virginia West 28-48 (56%) 04/01, 1am, Orange: #4 Virginia Technology -v- #17 Kansas 21-24 (70%) 05/01, 5pm, International: #43 Rutgers -v- #79 Ballstate 52-30 (81%) 07/01, 1am, Mobile: #53 Tulsa -v- #81 Bowling Green 63-7 (75%) 08/01, 1am, BCS: #3 Louisiana Purchase -v- #1 Ohio Province 38-24 (58%)
What does SCALF's win tell us that we did not already know? That their defeat to STANF was a fluke, but we knew that already. GRGIA's win ensures that no side has gone through the 2007-8 season undefeated, and furthers their claim to be the second-best side in the SE. Not that HAWII's defeat is any surprise: if TMQ is a reliable source, NCAA-ball players leave HAWII knowing less than when they arrive. Virginia West's win, and the Technology college's defeat, those were surprises - Kansas's win rates 33 on the upset-o-meter, the second largest shock of the post-season. OHIST's loss to LSU means the Louisiana Purchase is the nominal BCS champion, but leaves the Glickoblog rankings looking a little more messy:
The Contenders
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 4 3 1 LSU SE 1383 102.5 0 Louisiana Purchase 1 2 2 SCALF PX 1380 102.9 0 Southern California 2 1 3 OHIST BX 1359 107.9 0 Ohio Province 10 8 4 WVIRG BE 1324 104.7 0 W Virginia 18 6 5 GRGIA SE 1317 97.0 0 Georgia 11 4 6 VTECH AC 1304 96.8 0 Virginia Tech 9 5 7 OKLAH BT 1297 97.2 0 Oklahoma 12 10 8 MICH BX 1289 101.3 0 Michigan 38 9 9 MISRI BT 1287 92.2 0 Missouri
Somewhere in there is the best side in NCAA-ball this season. LSU lost two games to mid-table opposition. SCALF lost to STANF, but beat all its significant opponents in a quality division. OHIST lost two games to high-quality sides. WVIRG lost two, including one to PITTS. GRGIA lost two, again to decent opposition. VTECH lost three, and it's probable that they couldn't be said to be the best side.
In retrospect, the most irritating result of the year was Tennessee's victory over Georgia over Thanksgiving week-end. Without that result - the only time Tennessee tickled the positive side of the Upset-o-meter all season - Georgia would have won the East sub-division at a canter, challenged LSU for the SE title, and ensured that the two best sides in the division actually played this season.
Second most irritating result of the year was the decision to put SCALF against the nonentities of ILLNS. Had they played against WISCO - and we must assume that SCALF would have won the game - the Californish would have finished four points ahead of Louisiana Purchase, not three behind. We can see why the BCS wouldn't really want to have the potential Rival Title Game of SCALF -v- GRGIA, but such lily-livered bookings only serve to further the debate. Which may be what they want.
We're backing the calls from GRGIA for an eight-team play-off: whether KANSS or HAWII took the eighth spot would have been an interesting debate for December. It's certain that such an arrangement wouldn't leave us with five good candidates for the overall title, between whom precisely one game was played.
Rest of the Top 30
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 5 11 10 TEXAS BT 1280 101.9 0 Texas 19 14 11 BOSCL AC 1263 97.9 0 Boston College 53 17 12 KANSS BT 1263 95.1 0 Kansas 3 7 13 FLORD SE 1261 99.8 0 Florida 21 16 14 BYU MW 1249 97.6 0 Brigham Young 12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1249 98.5 0 Michigan 2 30 19 15 TENSE SE 1237 91.4 0 Tennessee 36 12 16 ARZST PX 1227 93.6 0 Arizona Province 8 20 17 AUBRN SE 1226 101.8 0 Auburn 7 13 18 WISCO BX 1217 103.3 0 Wisconsin 39 15 19 HAWII WA 1215 105.4 0 Hawaii 27 21 20 ORGST PX 1215 93.8 0 Oregon Territory 32 23 21 OREGN PX 1206 94.7 0 Oregon 17 24 22 PENST BX 1193 99.0 0 Penn Province 23 25 23 WAKEF AC 1185 93.9 0 Wake Forest 24 26 24 TXSTC BT 1181 98.7 0 Texas Tech 13 18 25 BSEST WA 1175 100.1 0 Boise State 34 22 26 CLEMS AC 1165 95.9 0 Clemson 44 28 27 CINCI BE 1162 100.1 0 Cincinnati 15 32 28 CALIF PX 1161 97.2 0 California 54 35 29 KNTCY SE 1146 98.6 0 Kentucky 40 38 30 UTAH MW 1138 94.5 0 Utah
Michigan's loss to Appalachian State on opening week-end turns out to have been worth precisely 40 points. Boise are the big losers from the post-season, they had the biggest defeat.
Other sides above average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 42 27 31 SFLOR BE 1129 97.9 0 S Florida 26 31 32 ARKNS SE 1123 100.3 0 Arkansas 16 40 33 TCU MW 1123 97.2 0 Texas Christian 56 29 34 VIRGI AC 1123 93.7 0 Virginia 28 30 35 TEXAM BT 1121 95.3 0 Texas A and M 105 33 36 ILLNS BX 1111 103.5 0 Illinois 20 43 37 RUTGR BE 1108 97.8 0 Rutgers 31 36 38 MARYL AC 1098 96.7 0 Maryland 6 42 39 LSVLE BE 1094 103.5 1 Louisville 25 39 40 UCLA PX 1094 94.9 0 Calif, Senora Riena 37 37 41 FLAST AC 1093 94.0 0 Florida Territory 45 46 42 PRDUE BX 1088 94.1 0 Purdue 29 34 43 GEOTC AC 1087 97.2 0 Georgia Tech 98 52 44 MSPST SE 1083 106.2 0 Mississippi State 50 50 45 OKLST BT 1081 96.8 0 Oklahoma Territory 80 41 46 CONNC BE 1075 96.8 0 Connecticut 74 45 47 MICST BX 1068 95.5 0 Michigan Province 66 59 48 ECARL CU 1062 101.4 0 E Carolina 41 44 49 NAVY XX 1062 100.1 0 Navy 59 53 50 TULSA CU 1061 94.4 0 Tulsa 35 49 51 SCARO SE 1060 98.7 2 S Carolina 22 51 52 NBRSK BT 1058 94.7 2 Nebraska 62 54 53 NEWMX MW 1056 95.3 0 New Mexico 76 60 54 FRSST WA 1054 99.1 0 Fresno State 84 48 55 AIRFC MW 1044 95.1 0 Air Force 96 47 56 UCF CU 1041 93.5 0 Central Florida 52 62 57 ALABM SE 1040 97.0 0 Alabama 43 55 58 ARIZN PX 1030 101.8 1 Arizona 51 58 59 WASST PX 1021 97.8 2 Washington Territory 14 63 60 NOTDM XX 1013 95.3 2 Notre Dame 33 64 61 MIAFL AC 1012 99.2 2 Miami-Florida 49 66 62 IOWA BX 1007 96.0 3 Iowa
Illinois was clearly over-ranked by the BCS voters, and even though MICH lost on opening day, they would have made less rubbish opposition for SCALF. And given enough points to put the Californish atop the standings, had they won. NOTDM's stinker of a season ends exactly half-way down the standings.
Below Average
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 55 57 63 HOUST CU 1002 95.1 0 Houston 70 56 64 COLRD BT 1001 93.6 0 Colorado 81 67 65 TROY SB 997 103.3 1 Troy 57 61 66 CMICH MA 995 93.5 0 Central Michigan 60 68 67 NWSTN BX 988 99.6 3 Northwestern 68 65 68 INDAN BX 987 95.3 0 Indiana 75 69 69 NCSTA AC 975 101.5 2 NC State 101 72 70 FLATL SB 968 97.3 0 Florida Atlantic 46 70 71 KNSST BT 966 96.7 2 Kansas Province 61 71 72 PITTS BE 956 101.3 1 Pittsburgh 64 75 73 IWAST BT 935 104.5 3 Iowa Province 83 76 74 STANF PX 935 99.0 1 Stanford 89 77 75 VNDRB SE 931 102.1 2 Vanderbilt 58 74 76 SMISS CU 926 96.3 0 S Mississippi 47 73 77 NEVDA WA 923 96.7 0 Nevada 65 78 78 WASNG PX 921 96.3 1 Washington 67 80 79 WYOMG MW 912 95.9 2 Wyoming 91 79 80 BALLS MA 904 96.2 0 Ball State 107 81 81 BOWLG MA 895 96.1 0 Bowling Green 86 82 82 MDTEN SB 880 100.9 2 Middle Tennessee 69 83 83 SNJST WA 877 98.4 2 San Jose State 99 84 84 LOMON SB 875 101.5 2 Louisiana Monroe 63 85 85 BAYLR BT 871 101.0 3 Baylor 71 86 86 WMICH MA 871 97.5 2 West Michigan 73 88 87 NCARO AC 863 107.1 2 N Carolina 87 89 88 SDGST MW 862 101.0 1 San Diego State 78 90 89 OHIO MA 857 95.0 2 Ohio U 103 87 90 MEMPH CU 850 95.2 0 Memphis 112 91 91 MIOHO MA 829 92.4 1 Miami-Ohio 88 92 92 TOLED MA 824 95.8 2 Toledo 94 93 93 ARKST SB 821 95.0 2 Arkansas Province 92 94 94 MARSL CU 821 102.2 2 Marshall 100 95 95 LSATC WA 817 103.0 1 Louisiana Tech 48 96 96 MINNS BX 815 104.0 3 Minnesota 72 97 97 RICE CU 813 98.6 2 Rice 82 98 98 COLST MW 812 102.2 2 Colorado Territory 85 99 99 UTEP CU 801 97.1 2 Texas El Paso
Just a couple of winners here, neither against significant sides.
The bottom of the barrel
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 93 100 100 MISIP SE 793 106.2 2 Mississippi 97 101 101 AKRON MA 781 94.7 2 Akron 118 102 102 BUFFL MA 781 99.1 2 Buffalo 90 103 103 SYRAC BE 774 102.9 2 Syracuse 95 104 104 LOLAF SB 771 99.8 2 Louisiana Lafayette 102 105 105 TULNE CU 756 100.7 2 Tulane 117 106 106 TEMPL MA 742 103.4 2 Temple 115 107 107 EMICH MA 738 101.2 3 East Michigan 108 108 108 ARMY XX 732 108.9 1 Army 77 109 109 NILNS MA 728 100.4 2 N Illinois 111 110 110 UNLV MW 721 103.3 2 Nevada, The Meadows 79 111 111 SMU CU 691 96.8 2 Southern Methodist 106 112 112 KENTS MA 688 99.3 2 Kent State 113 113 113 NMXST WA 684 107.3 1 New Mexico Territory 116 114 114 DUKE AC 677 115.1 2 Duke 104 115 115 UAB CU 667 101.1 2 Alabama, Birmingham 114 116 116 UTHST WA 666 107.3 2 Utah Territory 110 117 117 NTEXS SB 624 104.1 1 North Texas 109 118 118 IDAHO WA 585 107.6 2 Idaho 119 119 119 FLINT SB 581 110.3 1 Florida International
For next season...
By the time the season resumes in August, we're expecting to have perfected a method of re-calculating results from the start of the season, rather than week-by-week. If this comes to plan, we'll be able to work with different starting conditions, and won't be tied to our first best guess.
And remember: Florida International, the worst team in NCAA-ball, will go in on a winning streak of 1. OHIST will go into the new season on a losing streak.
NCAA |
