It's been the Round 6 in the FA Cup. Here are the upsets:
54 Everton - Oldham (III) 0:1 49 Huddersfield (III) - Birmingham 2:1 48 Blackburn - Coventry (II) 1:4 46 Colchester (II) - Peterborough (IV) 1:3 40 Bolton - Sheffield Utd (II) 0:1 38 Brighton (III) - Mansfield (IV) 1:2 24 Luton (III) - Liverpool 2:2 23 Fulham - Bristol Rovers (III) 1:1 21 Norwich (II) - Bury (IV) 1:1
But it's also been Round 6 in the French cup. Here are the shocks:
Selongey (V) - Le Mans 1:1 * Nice - Le Havre (II) 1:1 * Sedan (II) - Caen 3:2 Lens - Chamois Niortais (II) 0:1 Toulouse - Paris FC (IV) 1:2 Stade Brestois (II) - Monaco 1:1 *
Le Mans won 2:1 in extra time; Nice won 1:0 in extra time; Monaco won 2:0 in extra time.
Our Upset-o-meter reckons that Selongey's draw is worth 32 points, Sedan's win is worth 34. Paris FC's win puts them all to shade, Ligue IV being the top amateur competition, and ranks alongside Oldham - a 53-point upset.
At the other end of the scale, Cardiff (II) came from behind to beat Chasetown (VIII). We're giving Cardiff the minimum credit possible: no change to their rating, a reduction of 0.1 in their RD, and increasing their Idle count by 1. A defeat would have hit the limit of the Glicko system: the maximum movement (even against a team ranked (10,1)) would have been -32 points, but the Upset-o-meter would not have been able to give a reliable position. However, Cardiff (II) won, ensuring the Upset-o-meter can confidently give a shock rating of 0. The other zero-rated game was Derby - Sheffield Wednesday 2:2: Derby are on (711, 87.5), their visitors on (707, 76.5).
Division II
WBA 838 76.2 - 3 -0.04 STK 836 76.3 66 0.87 BRC 828 78.9 65 0.82 WAT 822 77.5 -42 -0.54 CHA 816 77.0 -49 -0.64 CPL 792 75.8 74 0.98 CDF 783 75.0 58 0.77 PLY 771 75.4 - 1 -0.01 HUL 765 75.1 - 2 -0.03 SFU 761 75.6 - 2 -0.03 IPS 754 76.0 -13 -0.17 WLV 754 76.7 -45 -0.59 SOT 743 75.4 -11 -0.15 BAN 741 75.9 - 9 -0.12 QPR 718 77.0 16 0.21 COV 716 77.8 18 0.23 BNL 714 75.8 -13 -0.17 SFW 707 76.5 -27 -0.35 LEI 691 74.4 -67 -0.90 PNE 688 77.4 3 0.04 BPL 683 76.4 46 0.60 NOR 678 78.5 87 1.11 CCR 648 77.0 -58 -0.75 SCU 601 81.9 -67 -0.82 LEE (III) 742 119.1 0 0.00 LUT (III) 677 113.1 0 0.00 SEN (III) 674 110.7 8 0.07 CRW (III) 627 130.4 -57 -0.44 MIL (III) 603 121.0 85 0.70 BRI (III) 491 119.1 -106 -0.89
Changes are against 27 November, since when most sides have played eight matches. We won't see RDs so low again. Stoke and Bristol City have large increases, Palace and Cardiff also large gainers, but the biggest is Norwich down there. Some equally-large turns down, Wolves and Leicester suffer, as do the last two. No qualifying matches for Leeds, but Brighton have been hurt from losing in the cup to Mansfield, the side bottom-but-one of Division IV. They do have the quarter-finals of the Football League Trophy this week.
