A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Fri 30 Nov 2007

More out than in

Four matches of note in domestic competition this week:

36   Watford - Burnley   1:2
34   Charlton Athletic - Sheffield United   0:3
32   Blackburn - Aston Villa   0:4
30   Blackpool - Norwich City   1:3

European League: Group A of Former Champions

   Besiktas  -  Marseille 2:1 (33)
Liverpool S  -  Porto     4:1

PTO 8 MAR 7 LIV 7 BES 6

Marseille has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Liverpool, and will outrank them if the match on the Med ends in a draw. Unless, that is, Besiktas can scrape a win in Portugal. Then, a draw in Marseille would bring the three-way head-to-head rankings into play. BES would qualify as winners; the three remaining sides each took five points off each other. Goal difference in the matches: LIV +3, MAR 0, POR -3, Liverpool progress, and Alan Green gets confused. But it'll be easier if they win.

Group B of Not As Obvious As We Thoughtness

Rosenborg  -  CSKA Kensington 0:4
 Valencia  -  Schalke 04      0:0

CHE 11 ROS 7 SNV 5 VAL 4

CSKA Kensington's win ensures they qualify as group champions; Rosenborg beat Valencia home and away and is assured UEFA Cup football; a draw in Schalke will put them into the last 16. We're not surprised that the Valencia - Schalke match ended in a draw: both sides came into the match with identical rankings and RDs: (1067, 82.7).

Group C of Dividends

Werder Bremen  -  Real Madrid 3:2 (34)
        Lazio  -  Olympiakos  1:2

RMD 8 OLY 8 WER 6 LAZ 5

Real Madrid has almost qualified. Only one of Olympiakos and Werder Bremen can finish ahead of Real, and the Spaniards have tie-breakers against both sides if they finish level. However, if Werder beats Olympiakos by any score, and Lazio beats Real by two or more goals, the Italian side will oust Madrid from the second round: a 0:3, 1:4, or four-goal defeat will allow Olympiakos into the UEFA Cup. But it'll be easier if they can force a draw.

Group D of How Will Portugal Mess This One Up?

Benfica  -  AC Milan         1:1
 Celtic  -  Shakhtar Donetsk 2:1

ACM 10 CEL 9 SHA 6 BEN 4

AC Milan has qualified. Shakhtar has the tie-breakers over Celtic, and the Scots visit Milan next Tuesday for the final game. Benfica needs a win in Ukraine to make the UEFA Cup.

Group E of Death

Stuttgart  -  Rangers   3:2
     Lyon  -  Barcelona 2:2

BAR 11 RAN 7 LYN 7 STT 3

As we've long expected, this group comes down to the clash at Ibrox in two weeks. Rangers need a draw. Barcelona has qualified.

Group F of Tedium

 Dynamo Kyiv  -  Roma            1:4
Manchester B  -  Sporting Lisbon 2:1

MUN 15 ROM 10 SLS 4 KYV 0

As we've long expected, this group is done and dusted with a round to spare.

Group G of Acronyms

   CSKA Moskow  -  PSV Eindhoven 0:1
Internazionale  -  Fenerbahce    3:0

INT 12 FEN 8 PSV 7 CSK 1

Inter has qualified after winning four in a row. Fenerbahce has the tie-breakers over PSV, meaning the Dutch side needs a win.

Group H of Censored

         Seville  -  Arsenal       3:1 (35)
Steaua Bucharest  -  Slavia Prague 1:1

SEV 12 ANL 10 SLP 5 STE 1

Seville and Arsenal have qualified; the away goal means that Arsenal has the tie-breakers, but still needs to beat Steaua in the final match.

UEFA Cup: Group Phase: Match 3

Group A of AZ
Zenit St Petersburg - Nürnburg 2:2
         AZ Alkmaar - Larisa   1:0
Idle: Everton

EVE* 6 ZSP 5 AZA* 4 NUR* 1 LAR 0

Group B of Mutton
Lokomotiv Moscow - Køvehaben 0:1 (31)
 Atlético Madrid - Aberdeen  2:1
Idle: Panathanaikos

PAN* 6 AMD* 4 COP* 3 LOK 2 ABD 1

Group C of Seeding
IF Elfsborg - Mladá Boleslav 1:3
 AEK Athens - Fiorentina     1:1 (15)
Idle: Villarreal

FIO 5 VIL* 4 BLV* 3 AEK* 2 ELF 1

Group D of Dwarves
  Brann - Dinamo Zagreb 2:1
Hamburg - Rennes        3:0
Idle: Basle

HAM* 6 BAS* 4 BRN 4 DZA* 1 REN 1

Matchday 4 (next week), is Idle versus First team, Second versus Third. Matchday 5 (three weeks hence) is this week's Fourth against Second, Third against Idle.
In A, Larissa is out, and AZ can finish the qualifying with a win at Nürnburg next week.
In B, Panathanaikos qualified after just two matches; the key tie is looking like Aberdeen - Køvenhaben in the final round.
In C, most arrangements of qualifiers are possible: Boleslav - AEK next week should help to cut down the possibilities, but only if there's a winner.
In D, Hamburg will qualify with a draw against Zagreb, and that will take the winner of Basel - Brann through.

Group E of Goal Difference
Sparta Prague - Spartak Moscow 0:0
    FC Zurich - Toulouse       2:0
Idle: Bayer Leverkusen

ZUR* 6 SPM* 4 PRG 4 BYL* 3 TOU 0

Group F of Bayern
Bolton - Aris Thessaloniki 1:1
 Braga - Bayern München    1:1 (15)
Idle: Crvena Zvedza

BAY 5 ASS* 4 BOL 3 BRG* 2 CRZ* 0

Group G of Winners
Tottenham - AaB Alborg      3:2
   Getafe - Hapoel Tel Aviv 1:2 (45)
Idle: Anderlecht

TOT 6 AND* 3 HTA 3 GET* 2 AAL* 1

Group H of Upsets
Helsingborgs - Austia Wien 3:0
   Panionios - Galatasaray 0:3
Idle: Bordeaux

HEL 7 BDX* 6 GAL 3 PIO* 1 AWI* 0

Toulouse did lose, and are out of the contest: other than that, E is too close to call.
Draws in F will help no-one, and we're suddenly scenting the remote possibility of cup favourites Bayern falling out of the contest at the group phase: for this to happen, Bolton needs to beat Crvena Zvedza next week.
G should be decided by next week's Anderlecht - Tottenham match: a draw will suffice for the North London side.
H will be decided in Bordeaux next week: a clear winner will take the group, a draw will put both through to the next round.

Next week's matches

Friday
1930 Set1 Hansa Rostock -v- Hannover

Saturday
0110 Set2 CF America -v- Arsenal Argentina
1200 Set1 Hearts -v- Celtic
1715 Set1 Aston Villa -v- Arsenal
1940 Set2 Benfica -v- Porto
1945 Set1 SPL Goals (highlights)
2145 Set2 Werder Bremen -v- Hamburg (tape)
2230 BBC1 Match of the Day (highlights)

Sunday
0925 ITV  The Division II (highlights, not Scotland)
1020 HTV  The Divisions III and IV
1130 BBC2 Euro '08 draw
1330 Set2 Ajax -v- NAC Breda
1330 BBC1 Harrogate Railway -v- Mansfield
  Followed by the Round 6 draw.
1400 C5   An Italian game
1400 Set1 Aberdeen -v- Hibernians
1700 Set2 Valenciennes -v- Rennes
1900 Set1 Salisbury -v- Aldershot
2000 Set2 Lyon -v- Strasbourg
2200 BBC2 Match of the Day 2 (highlights)

Monday
0300 Set1 Arminia Bielefeld -v- Bayern München (tape)
2000 Set1 Manchester Buccaneers -v- Fulham
2000 Rang Rangers -v- Kilmarnock (tape)

Tuesday
0015 Liv  Liverpool -v- Bolton (tape)
1945 STV  AC Milan -v- Celtic

Wednesday
1945 ITV4 Everton -v- Zenit St Petersburg

Thursday
1115 ESPT Villarreal -v- Elfsborg (highlights)
1200 ESPT Nürnburg -v- AZ Alkmaar (highlights)
1930 C5   Anderlecht -v- Tottenham
1945 Set1 Kidderminster -v- Cambridge

Friday
0830 ESPT Bayer Leverkusen -v- Sparta Prague (highlights)
0930 ESPT Shakhtar Donetsk -v- Benfica (highlights)

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