A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Tue 27 Nov 2007

Wide World of Football

Draws have been made for the World Cup in most sections: there will be all-against-all qualifiers in South America, and Oceania used the Pacific Games as a qualifying tournament for its final round.

CONCACAF draw

FARCE vs (Dominica vs Barbados)
Guatemala vs (Turks and Caicos Islands vs St. Lucia)
Trinidad and Tobago vs (Bermuda vs Cayman Islands)
(Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda) vs Cuba

(Belize vs St. Kitts and Nevis) vs Mexico
Jamaica vs (Bahamas vs British Virgin Islands)
Honduras vs (Dominican Rep. vs Puerto Rico)
Canada vs St. Vincent/Grenadine

(US Virgin Islands vs Grenada) vs Costa Rica
(Suriname vs Montserrat) vs Guyana
Panama vs (El Salvador vs Anguilla)
Haiti vs (Nicaragua vs Netherland Antilles)

Winners of each fixture enter a group of 4 who will play a round-robin next year; top two progress to the last six, which plays in 2009. Because seeding was done by performance at the last WC, the middle section contains four of the top six sides in the FIFA rankings; only the FARCE and Costa Rica have escaped. We do look forward to the colonials having to play against Cuba, because we're nasty like that.

Africa draw

Group 1: Cameroon, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Mauritius
Group 2: Guinea, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Kenya
Group 3: Angola, Benin, Uganda, Niger
Group 4: Nigeria, South Africa, Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone
Group 5: Ghana, Libya, Gabon, Lesotho
Group 6: Senegal, Algeria, Liberia, Gambia
Group 7: Cote d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Botswana, Madagascar
Group 8: Morocco, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Mauritania
Group 9: Tunisia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles
Group 10: Mali, Congo, Sudan, Chad
Group 11: Togo, Zambia, Eritrea, Swaziland
Group 12: Egypt, Congo DR, Malawi, Djibouti

Round-robin in 2008; the group winners and eight best runners-up will be re-drawn into five groups of four. Winners of each group - excluding matches against South Africa in their group - will make the World Cup. Next two in each group, plus hosts Angloa, will make the 2010 Cup of Nations. A tricky draw for South Africa, in particular.

Asia draw

Group 1: Iraq, Qatar, Red China, Australia
Group 2: Oman, Thailand, Bahrain, Japan
Group 3: North Korea, Jordan, Turkmenistan, South Korea
Group 4: Lebanon, Singapore, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia
Group 5: Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran

These groups will play out next year; top two progress to a further draw into two groups of five, they play a tight schedule in 2009. Top two in each group qualifies automatically; winner of a play off between the thirds will play New Zealand the winner of Oceania. At this stage, group 1 looks very difficult, and group 5 could also be tight.

Europe

Group 1 Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Albania, Malta
Group 2 Greece, Israel, Switzerland, Moldova, Latvia, Luxembourg
Group 3 Czechia, Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, San Marino
Group 4 Germany, Russia, Finland, Wales, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein
Group 5 Spain, Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Armenia, Estonia
Group 6 Croatia, England, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Andorra
Group 7 France, Romania, Serbia, Lithuania, Austria, Faroe Islands
Group 8 Italy, Bulgaria, Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Georgia, Montenegro
Group 9 Netherlands, Scotland, Norway, Macedonia, Iceland

Group winners progress to the finals, eight best runners-up (discarding results against 6th in the group) play off for the last places.

Some analysis? 1 looks tight, 2 has little depth and will provide cannon-fodder for some lucky side in the play-off; it's a dream draw for Switzerland and Latvia. 3 is so obvious they may as well just have Czechia and Poland play head-to-head in October 2009 and be done with it. 4 has three maddeningly inconsistent sides, the least inconsistent will finish behind Germany; and it redresses the injustice of promoting Azerbaijan above Liechtenstein because no-one at FIFA could quite belive the Liechts were pot 5 material. 5 looks like a good scrap, but for third. 6 contains three sides who believe they can make the quarter-finals of the whole contest, and three make-weights. 7 could be the group to send only one side: all three makeweights are capable of pulling off upsets (remember qualifying for Euro 92?), and the top brass will take points off each other. Difficult for the defending champions. 8 is about as easy a group as Italy could have hoped for. 9 also has strength in depth; it's not so long since we were seriously discussing Iceland's chances of qualification.

The upset-o-meter

47  BOLTON WANDERERS -v- Manchester Buccaneers  1:0
38  BARNSLEY -v- Watford  3:2
37  CAEN -v- Bordeaux  5:0
35  Seville FC -v- MALLORCA 1:2
32  NURNBERG -v- Bor. Dortmund  2:0
31  AUXERRE -v- Le Mans 3:0
22  LARISSA -v- Panathanaikos 2:2
19  GRETNA - Hearts 1:1
18  Villarreal -v- ALMERIA  1:1
17  REAL MURCIA -v- Real Madrid 1:1
15  FULHAM -v- Blackburn Rovers  2:2

Bolton pull off a remarkable victory, just when the side was staring relegation in the face. Barnsley knock off the Division II leaders, and we note Caen's large margin of victory. That's a win!

Division II

CHA   865   84.1   54   0.64
WAT   864   86.9  -41  -0.47
WBA   841   82.8   55   0.66
WLV   799   82.5   17   0.21
PLY   772   82.2    4   0.05
STK   770   83.6  -35  -0.42
HUL   767   82.0   51   0.62
IPS   767   84.5    3   0.04
BRC   763   90.9  -28  -0.31
SFU   763   82.0   39   0.48
LEI   758   82.9  -12  -0.14
SOT   754   82.9  -23  -0.28
BAN   750   83.7    5   0.06
SFW   734   82.9   52   0.63
BNL   727   82.9    0   0.00
CDF   725   81.1   11   0.14
CPL   718   83.3    0   0.00
CCR   706   83.9  -50  -0.60
QPR   702   85.3   63   0.74
COV   698   82.3  -15  -0.18
PNE   685   83.4  -25  -0.30
SCU   668   92.6  -54  -0.58
BPL   637   87.6  -83  -0.95
NOR   591   85.4    2   0.02

LEE (III)   742   111.1   16   0.14
CRW (III)   684   131.2    0   0.00
LUT (III)   677   104.7   56   0.53
SEN (III)   666   104.5  -34  -0.33
BRI (III)   597   124.1    6   0.05
MIL (III)   518   134.3  -25  -0.19

Watford's second defeat in three games costs them the lead, and it goes to the side that beat them just before the international week-end. Westbrom and Wolves drew 0:0 this week-end. Hull, Sheffield W, and QPR all had a good month; Blackpool and Colchester were well below average. In Division III, Leeds has crept into the playoff places. Luton has suffered a 10-point deduction after the side went into financial administration; it's back in the relegation zone to Division IV.

ResultsTables |

older writing... write to