Let's begin with the big guns, because there have been some substantial changes.
Top Ten Contenders
#1 Ohio Province - no game
43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48
#37 Connecticut 21 vs. #3 West Virginia 66
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
#6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21
Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49
#8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17
#34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45
#10 Missouri 36 vs. #14 Kansas 28
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
Miami 14 vs. #12 Boston College 28
37- #15 Oregon 0 vs. #43 UCLA 16
#17 Boise St. 27 vs. #20 Hawaii 39
#18 Tennessee 52 vs. #29 Kentucky 50
LSU's shock defeat on Friday night hasn't cost them a place in the SE title game - that was always in the bag - but has almost certainly cost a place in the BCS title game. WVIRG's blowout win has secured the BE title. SCALF kept itself firmly in the running with victory over Arizona Province, ensuring it's the Californish who have the matter in their own hands. That game was played on Thursday; not until the early hours of Sunday did UCLA set the cat amongst the toffees with its win over Oregon. Virginia Technical College beat Virginia to seal a place in the AC title game. Texas's loss is the third of its season, and ends any residual hope of cracking the BCS circle; it also ensured Oklahoma a berth in the BT title game. Their opponents will be Missouri, winners in the winner-take-all match. Friday's late game saw Hawaii overpower Boise, and needing just one more win to finish the season undefeated. LSU's opponents in the SE title game will be Tennessee, a side that won only one game of significance all season, and was taken into four periods of extra time this week, but the one big win happened to be against divisional rivals Georgia.
Other Top 40 sides
#33 Utah 10 vs. #19 BYU 17
The Notoriously Rubbish
Notre Dame 21 vs. Stanford 14 #106 Buffalo 30 vs. #111 Kent St. 23 #117 Utah St. 24 vs. #118 Idaho 19 Florida Atlantic 55 vs. #119 Fla. International 23
Notre Dame manages a third win, and is provisionally ranked number 62 for the season. One place below them, after a second consecutive rubbish season, is Miamiflorida. Last year, the blowhards relied on a victory over a Division II side and the reflected shine of their former glories to progress into the play-offs. This year, no such luck is possible, and the side is not eligible for a game. Had Notre Dame not been so rubbish early this season, much more attention would have been thrown on the continued mediocrity of the MIAFL team.
As it is, FLINT ends the year +0-11 in games against top-flight sides, level with IDAHO. UTHST's winning streak now stands at two matches, and this feels like a good place to declare. We'll list the bottom ten, and all 109 places above them, next week.
The Upset-o-meter
43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48 38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38 37- Wyoming 28 vs. #103 Colorado St. 36 32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65
Division II News
X- James Madison 27 vs. Appalachian St. 28 X- Wofford 23 vs. Montana 22
Squeakers!
Score Your Ranking!
32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65 38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
Oh, bad luck Colorado, missing the jackpot prize by just one conversion; we should also note NBRSK's valiant attempt to have the game end 42:64. TEXAM capped a good win by scoring precisely their ranking.
Inter-Provincial Championships
#4 Southern Cal 44 vs. #11 Arizona St. 24 X- Delaware St. 7 vs. Delaware 44 Mississippi 14 vs. Mississippi St. 17 38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38 #6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21 Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49 #8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17 #34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45 Miami (Ohio) 29 vs. Ohio 38 X- E. Illinois 11 vs. S. Illinois 30 Louisiana-Monroe 17 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 11 Washington St. 42 vs. Washington 35
Top Thirty
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 2 1 1 OHIST BX 1395 110.8 1 Ohio Province 1 4 2 SCALF PX 1355 107.4 0 Southern California 10 3 3 WVIRG BE 1350 109.4 0 W Virginia 4 2 4 LSU SE 1328 109.7 0 Louisiana Purchase 11 6 5 VTECH AC 1313 102.4 0 Virginia Tech 9 7 6 OKLAH BT 1298 103.3 0 Oklahoma 38 10 7 MISRI BT 1296 96.6 0 Missouri 18 8 8 GRGIA SE 1295 99.0 0 Georgia 3 9 9 FLORD SE 1291 102.2 0 Florida 19 12 10 BOSCL AC 1272 103.4 0 Boston College 12 13 11 MICH BX 1258 103.2 1 Michigan 5 5 12 TEXAS BT 1252 104.7 0 Texas 7 16 13 WISCO BX 1249 105.6 1 Wisconsin 36 11 14 ARZST PX 1238 97.9 0 Arizona Province 39 20 15 HAWII WA 1231 111.4 0 Hawaii 53 14 16 KANSS BT 1231 96.7 0 Kansas 30 18 17 TENSE SE 1229 95.6 0 Tennessee 21 19 18 BYU MW 1224 101.1 0 Brigham Young 12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1217 99.9 1 Michigan 2 13 17 19 BSEST WA 1216 101.6 0 Boise State 32 15 20 OREGN PX 1212 100.0 0 Oregon 8 22 21 AUBRN SE 1198 104.6 0 Auburn 34 23 22 CLEMS AC 1190 97.8 0 Clemson 15 21 23 CALIF PX 1186 100.5 1 California 27 24 24 ORGST PX 1168 98.0 1 Oregon Territory 17 25 25 PENST BX 1168 100.6 1 Penn Province 23 28 26 WAKEF AC 1165 95.5 0 Wake Forest 24 27 27 TXSTC BT 1155 100.3 1 Texas Tech 42 31 28 SFLOR BE 1153 100.1 0 S Florida 44 30 29 CINCI BE 1149 101.5 0 Cincinnati 56 26 30 VIRGI AC 1146 95.4 0 Virginia
Last week, we said the most likely BCS title game was LSU-KANSS. We don't think that any more.
Conferences in detail
AC BOSCL and VTECH will compete for the title. A VTECH win lifts them to 1337, a BOSCL win puts them on 1303. Ratings of the losers would be BOSCL 1248, VTECH 1283.
BE Won by WVIRG, who play PITTS next week. A win will put them on 1355, a defeat sees the side slump to 1291.
BT MISRI against OKLAH. A win for OKLAH takes them to 1325, for MISRI to 1320. Defeated OKLAH rests at 1270, MISRI at 1272.
BX OHIST has won, and will remain at 1395.
SE LSU and TENSE here. A win for LSU advances them to 1351, a defeat to 1289. TENSE will end on 1259 or 1212.
WA Has been won by HAWII; though they're only on 1231, 1241 with a victory against WASNG next week, the only +12-0 side will surely get into the top ten.
PX There's a reason we've taken them out of order... Remember how we've been floating the possibility that this division could end up in one awful mess? This division could end up in the biggest pile-up of quality mediocrity in history. SCALF heads ARZST on head-to-head, with OREGN, ORGST, and UCLA all one game back. Now, the division cannot finish in a five-way tie, as OREGN and ORGST play next week. However, if UCLA knocks off SCALF (which is quite possible), and ARZST can't win its derby against ARIZN (not quite on a par with Andorra drawing with Russia, but you get the drift), we will have four sides on +6-3 in the division. If this happened, the win-loss matrix (excluding OREGN-ORGST) would look like this:
SCALF ..0 1.0 1.. ARZST .0. 01. .1. UCLA 1.. .01 ..1 OREGN 011 ... ... ORGST ... ... 000
All would hinge on the winner of the Oregon match. If it were OREGN (read the left two columns), they would have two wins against the other tied sides, but so would UCLA, and UCLA won the head-to-head game, so would be champions. However, if ORGST won (right-hand columns), then SCALF, UCLA, and ARZST all have two wins each, and we have to go looking into the PX rulebook for its tiebreaking arcana. Next up: matches against the next side down in the rankings, which is ARIZN, who beat OREGN last week. By assumption, ARIZN beat ARZST, and we find they beat UCLA but lost to SCALF, who are therefore the champions.
So, the scenarios are:
SCALF beats UCLA, wins title, done, dusted, see you in the big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST beats ARIZN, then ARZST wins title, done, dusted, see you in the not-so-big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN beats ORGST, then UCLA wins the title on head-to-head records. Cue much confusion amongst the punditocracy.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN loses to ORGST, then matches against ARIZN enter the tie-break, SCALF wins, and the number of people who fully comprehend the reasons why is approximately equal to the number of readers of this blog.
Glad we've got that cleared up! Oh, rankings. SCALF finishes on 1368 if it wins its game, 1308 if it wins via this catflap in the back door method. UCLA can only win the division with a win, and ends on 1162. ARZST also needs a win, finishing on 1251.
Quickly through the other minors: CU UCF against TULSA. MA BOWLG against CMICH. MW BYU. SB TROY and FLATL meet in a regular-season game next week.
The projected top end
Here's how the top 20 could look next week, assuming things go according to plan. Bold indicates a team is champion of its division; italics that they're otherwise not in action next week. Outside the current top ten, we only give points assuming the side wins.
TW NW Conf R =================================================== 1 1 OHIST BX 1395 Ohio Province 2 2 SCALF PX 1368-1308 Southern California 3 3 WVIRG BE 1355-1291 W Virginia 4 4 LSU SE 1351-1289 Louisiana Purchase 5 5 VTECH AC 1337-1283 Virginia Tech 6 6 OKLAH BT 1325-1270 Oklahoma 7 7 MISRI BT 1320-1272 Missouri 10 8 BOSCL AC 1303-1248 Boston College 8 9 GRGIA SE 1295 Georgia 9 10 FLORD SE 1291 Florida 17 11 TENSE SE 1259 Tennessee 11 12 MICH BX 1258 Michigan 12 13 TEXAS BT 1252 Texas 14 14 ARZST PX 1251 Arizona Province 13 15 WISCO BX 1249 Wisconsin 15 16 HAWII WA 1241 Hawaii 16 17 KANSS BT 1231 Kansas 19 18 BSEST WA 1230 Boise State 18 19 BYU MW 1224 Brigham Young 20 20 OREGN PX 1235 Oregon .... 35 27 UCLA PX 1162 Calif, Senora Riena
So, who is going to the BCS title game? Based on these figures, and ignoring the prejudiced rantings of the humans who couldn't decide how many sugars to have in their tea (believe them, and it's WVIRG-MISRI for the taking), OHIST looks to be a complete certainty. Their opponent could realistically be any of the sides ranked 2-7, and we must bear in mind that either OKLAH or MISRI must win their game.
Two principal considerations for the wild-card spots: SCALF and VTECH. Both will have very strong records even if they lose. We can't say the same about LSU, partly because they'll have lost two on the bounce, and partly because TENSE has ridden tremendous amounts of luck to be in the divisional final in the first place. So strong is the SE division that if TENSE wins its game, it will still only be the fourth-placed SE side in these rankings. Of the others, FLORD will be handicapped by being last year's winners, last year's BCS champions, and generally last year. GRGIA has a stronger claim for inclusion. We reckon it will be stronger if LSU comes away with a win, but the difference is marginal.
HAWII should get a place with a win. Assuming that neither SCALF nor VTECH lose, the BT loser (though KANSS may be prefered to OKLAH) should be invited to something, with either BOSCL or ARZST in the wings should the favourites win or HAWII lose.
In summary:
AC VTECH almost certain, and in top 2 consideration with win; BOSCL possible.
BE WVIRG certain of top 10, possible top 2.
BT MISRI probable, OKLAH or KANSS possible. Winner an outside bet for top 2.
BX OHIST certain, probably in top 2.
PX SCALF probable of top 10, possible top 2; could be joined by ARZST. UCLA, if they travel, would go alone, because if there's one thing we know about NCAA-ball voters, it's that they hate a smart-arse.
SE LSU in top 2 consideration with a win; TENSE, GRGIA both possible.
WA HAWII in with a win, out otherwise.
Next week's televised games
Fr 1730 BE #33 Rutgers -v- #49 Louisville Sa 1030 WA #64 Fresnostate -v- #111 New Mexico Territory Sa 1800 AC #5 Virginia Coll of Tech -v- #10 Boston College Sa 2100 SE #4 Louisiana Purchase -v- #17 Tennessee Su 0100 BT #7 Missouri -v- #6 Oklahoma Su 0700 ** Army -v- Navy Su 1000 PX #35 UCLA -v- #2 SCALF (tape) Su 1600 Match Of The Day Mo 1900 BCS Draw Tu 1630 PX #24 Oregon Province -v- #20 Oregon (tape)
Coverage of the Division II play-offs begins on 8 December.
NCAA |
