A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Thu 22 Nov 2007

Euro '08 is (almost) in the books; World Cup 2010 starts soon

Of seven groups in action last night, five of them were pretty dull. Everything had been decided, or required unlikely outcomes. We would like to have been gripped by the Portugal - Finland match, but couldn't find anyone bothering to cover this event, though kudos to the BBC for showing Sweden - Latvia.

International: EURO qualification grp. A
   Armenia  -  Kazakhstan  0:1
Azerbaijan  -  Belgium     0:0
  Portugal  -  Finland     0:0
    Serbia  -  Poland      2:2

PL 28 PT 27 FI 24 RS 21* BE 16 AM 15 KZ 10* AZ 6

Serbia's match against Kazakhstan was re-scheduled for Sunday, but further snowfall prevented the match from taking place. It's been rescheduled for next Saturday; UEFA insists that foreign signings should rejoin their home clubs. What a way to run a railroad.

In the event, that hasn't affected the qualification process: Portugal got the point they needed to qualify regardless of what the Serbs did: two late goals will have scared the Poles. Kazakhstan's win gives them 10 points. We disagree with UEFA that Armenia should not be awarded the points from their cancelled matches against Azerbaijan.

International: EURO qualification grp. B
Georgia  -  Lithuania      0:2
  Italy  -  Faroe Islands  3:1
Ukraine  -  France         2:2

IT 29 FR 26 SC 24 UA 17 LT 16 GA 10 FO 0

Georgia was the reigning knockout European champions, after beating Scotland last month; the title now rests with Lithuania and cannot be transferred to the Technology College on Saturday. The Faroes scored only their fourth goal of the campaign, and France conceded only their fourth and fifth: Scotland had two 1:0 wins, and Italy scored in their 3:1 defeat last year.

International: EURO qualification grp. C
  Malta  -  Norway              1:4
 Turkey  -  Bosnia-Herzegovina  1:0
Hungary  -  Greece              1:2

GR 31 TR 24 NO 23 BH 13 MV 12 HU 12 MT 5

It's fair to say that Greece took full advantage of their status as title-holders: easy group was certain, easy group winners was not, and easily group winners shows the side won't give up its title that easily.

International: EURO qualification grp. D
    Cyprus  -  Czechia   0:2
   Germany  -  Wales     0:0
San Marino  -  Slovakia  0:5

CZ 29 DE 27 IE 17 SK 16 WA 15 CY 14 SM 0

A week ago, we were wondering if Cyprus might finish third. They came sixth, and Slovakia climbed a place with each game to end up fourth. Wales's draw in Germany is their best result of the campaign.

International: EURO qualification grp. E
  Andorra  -  Russia   0:1
  England  -  Croatia  2:3

HR 23 RU 23 EN 19 MK 14 EE 7 AD 0

In the event, UEFA's political decision not to exclude Israel from the tournament as they saw it had no effect. The last goal of the qualification stage proper restored Croatia's deserved lead, and ensured they would go through and England would go home.

International: EURO qualification grp. F
Denmark  -  Iceland    3:0
  Spain  -  N.Ireland  1:0
 Sweden  -  Latvia     2:1

ES 28 SE 26 NI 20 DK 20 LV 12 IS 8 LI 7

Single-goal wins for the qualified sides proved sufficient, Sweden establishing their lead in the first minute of the match. Northern Ireland's campaign has been a landmark victory.

International: EURO qualification grp. G
  Romania  -  Albania      6:1
  Belarus  -  Netherlands  2:1
 Slovenia  -  Bulgaria     0:2

RO 29 NL 26 BG 25 BL 13 AB 11 SV 11 LU 3

In spite of losing to Luxembourg, and conceding both goals the side scored, Belarus climb through to finish fourth. There are those who will suggest that the Dutch lost their game to help their seeding...

That Seeding In Full

    Pl Pt Coeff
GR 24 52 2.167
CH 10 18 1.800
AT 10 15 1.500
NL 24 58 2.417
==============
HR 22 53 2.401
IT 22 52 2.363
CZ 24 56 2.333
SE 22 50 2.273
==============
DE 12 27 2.250
RO 24 54 2.250
PT 26 57 2.192
ES 22 48 2.182
==============
FR 22 48 2.182
PL 24 52 2.167
RU 24 47 1.958
TR 24 47 1.958

Greece as champions, Switzerland, and Austria as hosts automatically qualify for Pot A, joined by the best qualifier aggregating results from this campaign and the one for the 2006 World Cup. Had Germany won, they would have finished on 29 points from 12, advancing over the Dutch on performance in the 2008 qualifiers. However, the draw drops the Germans into Pot C. France also drops down based on their slightly worse performance this time out, setting up the possibility of...

The Ultimate Group of Death

Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France

We'll find out when the draw is made on 2 December.

World Cup 2010: the coverage starts now

Before then will be the draw for the European section of the 2010 World Cup. The 53 entrants (including newcomers Montenegro) will be divided into nine groups; eight groups of six, and one of five. The nine group winners will progress as of right; the eight best runners-up (in matches against other sides in the group top 4 only) will play off for the last four places. The ranking is precisely the European sides in the FIFA World Rankings to be announced to-morrow.

Though FIFA hasn't officially published its rankings, it is possible to back-calculate them to within a small margin of error. The provisional pottings for the 2010 draw are as follows:

Pot 1: France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Czechia, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Greece

Pot 2: England, Romania, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Sweden, Poland, Russia, Israel

Pot 3: Serbia, Norway, Ukraine, Finland, Denmark, Northen Ireland, Ireland, Switzerland, Belgium

Pot 4: Slovakia, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova, Macedonia, Wales, Belarus, Lithuania, Cyprus

Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakstan, Liechtenstein

Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino

With the exception of pots 4 and 5, where there's a clear difference, it's possible that the top team in any given pot may oust the bottom team from the next pots above. If there's one most likely to change, it's England moving to pot 1 at the expense of Greece. Serbia's postponed match against Kazakhstan will not enter into calculations.

The ceremony begins at 3pm on Sunday; there appears to be no television coverage at all, but we expect there will be commentary on Radio 5 and on CEEFAX.

Next week!

Friday
1930 Set1 Karlsruher -v- Hertha Berlin

Saturday
1230 Set1 Falkirk -v- Rangers
1330 ESP2 Kaiser Chiefs -v- Orlando Pirates
1715 Set1 Derby County -v- Chelsea
2030 NASN Connecticit -v- Virginia West
2145 Set2 Bayern Munich -v- Wolfsburg (tape)
2230 BBC1 Match of the Day (highlights)

Sunday
0925 ITV  The Division II (highlights; not STV)
1330 Set2 Ajax -v- Vitesse Arnhem
1400 Set2 Gretna -v- Hearts
1400 C5     An Italian match
1400 NASN Missouri -v- Kansas (tape)
1500 **** World Cup Draw Ceremony (Radio 5?)
1800 Set1 Auxerre -v- Le Mans
2000 Set1 Nice -v- PSG
2000 Set2 Nurnburg -v- Borussia Dortmund (tape)
2200 BBC2 Match of the Day 2 (highlights)

Monday
1715 Celt Celtic -v- Aberdeen (tape)
1945 Set1 Stevenage -v- Altrincham
2305 STV  Scotsport (highlights)
2330 S4C  Y Clwb Pel-Droed (highlights)

Tuesday
1945 ITV  Manchester Buccaneers -v- Sporting Lisbon
1945 STV  Stuttgart Nil -v- Rangers
1945 ITV4 Sevilla -v- Arsenal

Thursday
1945 ITV4 Tottenham -v- Aalborg
1955 BBCi Atletico Madrid -v- Aberdeen
  BBC1 Scotland, red button elsewhere
2000 C5   Bolton -v- ARIS Salonika
2215 ESPT UEFA Cup Highlights
2300 CELT Celtic -v- Shaktar Donetsk (tape)
2300 ESPT European League Highlights

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