Michel Platini has withdrawn his proposal to allow cup winners to enter into the European League. Instead, the top 12 countries will send 16 sides into a repechage tournament for four places. The proposed access list is:

1-3: 3 direct + 1 to QR2
4-6: 2 direct + 1 to QR2
7-12: 1 direct + 2 to QR2

Entrants to QR2 play two rounds amongst themselves for four places in the main draw.

13-20: Champions to QR2
21-52: Champions to QR1

These champions would play three rounds for six places in the main draw. If the previous season's champion was already qualified, winner 13 gains automatic qualification, and 21 and 22 advance to QR2.

Losers in QR2 cascade to QR3 of the UEFA Cup; losers in QR3 go to the UEFA Cup group phase; losers in QR1 are out. The cut-off for four places in the UEFA Cup remains the 26th country.

Europe's Top XXII

Maximum RD: 115. (This excludes Panathanaikos, whose (1106, 115.2) would rank them 21st.) Changes are against 11 October

01 +5 MUN   1245   85.6
02 +1 ANL   1232   84.8
03 +1 INT   1225   87
04 +4 VIL   1219   85.3
05 -3 RMD   1216   82.1
06 -5 BAR   1210   85.1
07 -- CHE   1200   85.9
08 +2 ROM   1162   84
09 -4 BAY   1145   87.4
10 +1 FIO   1144   89.7
11 +7 LYN   1141   81
12 +4 ESP   1141   86
13 +4 SEV   1140   79.4
14 -1 LIV   1140   82.7
15 +6 FEN   1136  104.5
16 -2 AMD   1135   85.7
17 -8 JVE   1135  106.1
18 -3 PTO   1129  111.8
19 +1 BLK   1125   86.4
20 ne HAM   1113   87.1
21 ne WER   1096   81.5
22 ne SAN   1096   85.8

Out go Valencia (12-23), Schalke (19-30), Shakhtar Donetsk (22-61).

Top Five Averages

A simple average of each country's top five clubs

England 1188 (+24)
Spain   1185 ( nc)
Italy   1150 (+ 3)
Germany 1086 (-16)
France  1056 (+ 2)

Greece, Netherlands, Portugal are yet to have five listed sides: all should be included next month.

It is a trivially provable fact that matches within a division will tend to be zero-sum over a reasonably extended period of time. It is reasonable to assume that, as a poor team dips out of the top 5, its rating points will transfer to another side of broadly equivalent strength. The changes we see here should, therefore, reflect the net flows in European football. This time, we see that England has gained, Germany has lost.

The Monte Carlo model

01 +1 Arsenal Libels 02 -1 Barcelona 03 +6 Villarreal 04 -- Real Madrid 05 +1 Inter Milan 06 +6 CSKA Kensington 07 -- Manchester Buccaneers 08 -3 Juventus 09 +1 Espanyol 10 +7 Fenebaçhe 11 NE Atlético Madrid 12 +1 Roma 13 -10Bayern München 14 -6 Fiorentina 15 NE Olympiakos 16 NE Sevilla 17 -6 Porto 18 +2 Blackburn 19 -1 Liverpool Stadiennes 20 NE Santander 21 NE Hamburg 22 NE Lyon

Next week's live games

Final two rounds of qualifying for the European Nation's Cup: by the time we meet on Thursday, we will have all 14 qualifiers.

Fr 2230 BBC3/** Austria -v- England (highlights)
Sa 1200 Set1/E5 Kidderminster -v- Woking
Sa 1730  S4C/NC Cymru -v- Gweriniaeth Iwerddon
Sa 2000 BBCi/NC Northern Ireland -v- Denmark
  BBC2 NI and Red Button.
Sa 2220 BBC1/NC Match of the Day
  Highlights of Scotland, N Ireland, Wales
Su 0900 ESPT/NC Highlights
Su 1245 ESPT/NC Norway -v- Turkey (highlights)
Su 1345 ESPT/NC Netherlands -v- Luxembourg (highlights)
Tu 0500   C5/ML Major League Sochere: The Final (highlights)
We 1930 BBCi/NC Germany -v- Wales
  BBC2 Wales and Red Button.
We 2000 BBC1/NC England -v- Croatia
We 2230 ESPT/NC Highlights
Th 0900 ESPT/NC Cyprus -v- Czechia (highlights)
Th 1000 ESP2/** Senegal -v- Morocco (highlights)
Th 1145 ESPT/NC Denmark -v- Iceland (highlights)
Th 1230 ESPT/NC Belarus -v- Netherlands (highlights)
Th 1315 ESP2/NC Sweden -v- Latvia (highlights)
Th 1330 ESPT/NC Ukraine -v- France (highlights)
Th 1430 ESPT/NC Serbia -v- Poland (highlights)
Th 2000 Set1/E5 Aldershot -v- Grays

And don't forget, we've already gone through the permutations for who NEEDS what this week-end.

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