A Monday update, perhaps shedding more light on some matters from yesterday.
Handicapping the South East East
As things stand, GRGIA has two defeats, both against SE opponents. FLORD and TENSE have also lost two matches against SE sides, and a third match against other opposition. GRGIA has one game against an SE side and one out-of-division match, the other sides both have two division matches left. The three-way tie is indecisive: GRGIA beat FLORD beat TENSE beat GRGIA.
If everyone wins their remaining games, all three sides finish with two divisional losses, but GRGIA has lost only two games overall, the others have lost three, so wins. However, if FLORD loses one of its remaining games while the others win out, the tie-break becomes the head-to-head match between TENSE-GRGIA, which goes to TENSE. TENSE loses a game? GRGIA has the tie-break on FLORD. And if GRGIA and TENSE both lose to divisional opposition, FLORD wins.
Still with us? (Re-reads previous paragraph) We're not! The practical upshot is that no one side has the SEE championship in their sole control: GRGIA's potential win requires TENSE and FLORD to win out, or both to lose a game; TENSE's win requires FLORD or GRGIA to lose a game, and FLORD requires (at least) a defeat for GRGIA, preferably in the divisional match.
And all of this is merely to determine the opponent for LSU in the SE final. The mind boggles.
Handicapping the play-offs (1)
For the BCS championship game, we can begin to posit scenarios.
LSU needs to beat two clearly inferior sides in its remaining regular-season games, plus whichever side wins the SEE. This should suffice to put LSU into the top two.
OHIST absolutely must beat MICH in the BX title decider next week to stand any chance of making the top two.
If OKLAH can win out its season, including the BT title game against KANSS, it would have a strong claim to make the national final. Given the fact that OHIST has one game left against quality opposition, and OKLAH has three, it's likely that OKLAH would take second place if it and OHIST win out.
Of the sides on the cusp: SCALF needs to win out its remaining games, including ARZST, to enter into contention. We can't see the side qualifying unless it wins its division, and that would require a defeat for OREGN. OREGN, meanwhile, needs to win out, and probably needs one of the sides above to slip up.
We can't yet rule out WVIRG, though that really requires defeats for OHIST, OKLAH in its title game (or not to make the title), and the PX to end in a mess of upsets. TEXAS perhaps has a better shot: OKLAH to lose one of its regular games, TEXAS to win the championship, hope for other results to go their way. VTECH needs to win out, and hope for a miracle.
MICH, FLORD, ARZST, GRGIA, KANSS, MINNS - we wouldn't begruge any of them places in the final ten, but the only realistic chance of any making the final is the SE sides knocking off LSU, coupled with a messy end to the PX and BT seasons, and generally being preferred to MICH. Of the interlopers, the winner of BSEST-HAWII has a strong claim to inclusion: BSEST is currently ranked 11th after excluding multiple entrants, and HAWII would have gone through the season undefeated.
Barring lower-ranked winners of the BE and AC, we cannot see any side outside the current top 15 challenging for the end-of-season top 10.
Handicapping the play-offs (2)
At the moment, we project LSU -v- OKLAH for the BCS championship, assuming both are divisional champs. Barring upsets, the other spots look to be:
PX: OREGN plus winner of ARZST-SCALF.
BE: net winner of WVIRG or CONNC or CINCI.
AC: one from VTECH, CLEMS, BOSCL, VIRGI.
BX: MICH or OHIST.
SEE: GRGIA or TENSE or FLORD.
BT2: KANSS or MISRI or TEXAS.
We can't see the PX failing to put two sides into the top ten, barring a complete meltdown. BE is going to be champions only, and AC is unlikely to put two sides in, though VTECH losing the championship game by a sneeze would not be fatal. MICH secures a spot if they win next week but is certainly eliminated if they lose; a defeat for OHIST puts them into the scramble for the open places. We suspect that two defeats on the bounce will count heavily against them, but it's not quite fatal.
Even assuming LSU wins the championship, the runners-up in the SE should get a spot; more likely if it's anyone but FLORD, and TENSE would have the advantage of not being in the BCS games lately. BT's presumptive runners-up to OKLAH also have a good claim, particularly if they're a one-loss KANSS; it's almost impossible for Texas to gain a BCS game unless it wins the entire division. A defeat for LSU in the SE divisional playoff will surely see them cascade into one of the other bowls; a loss for OKLAH may see them excluded entirely. Neither the BT nor the SE can be certain of two entrants, but the omens are useful.
Tenth spot we're provisionally reserving for the winner of BSEST - HAWII. HAWII looks the more likely, given the way these humans rely on small numbers in the L column. Defeated OHIST and VTECH only really come into the mix if one of the other conferences ends up in an ugly mess.
NCAA |
