A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Sun 11 Nov 2007

Ten little

So what was wrong with Monday night? There was an NCAA-ball match on Sunday, one on Tuesday, one on Wednesday, a handful on Thursday and Friday, and the usual shedload on Saturday. But nothing on Monday.

TMQ points out that, as recently as 2005, there were regularly scheduled games amongst the non-BCS conferences in midweek. These have now been moved to Saturday, ostensibly as being one of 75 games on Saturday is more prestigious than being the only Tuesday Night NCAA-ball Game. The result: games involving obscure colleges in places no-one's ever been to, like EMICH, are tucked away on little-viewed channels. That's apart from every AKRON game, which gets international viewership on NASN...

Actually, the more prosaic reason is the expansion of the season to 12 games: the season remains 14 weeks long, and no-one wants to play Saturday - Tuesday, so each midweek game eats up one of just two bye weeks. The solution is simple: extend the season to a fifteenth week, a little deeper into December. But, oh, that's tinkering with tradition, and the NCAA-ball can't be doing with that. May the football gods smite whoever came up with that idea.

Smite of the Week

47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21

Well, that's set the wrapped toffees amongst the staff of Playpigeon magazine, and no mistake. OHIST loses its first game of the season, and its number 1 ranking. It also means that Michigan goes to the top of the standings in the Big Ten - the two season-opening defeats count for naught as they were against non-divisional opposition.

Smite of the Week (2)

33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37

Oh, heck. We'll go away and look at the rest of the results, and come back to the BX in the rest of the conferences...

The rest of Last Week's Top Ten

 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58
 Baylor 21 vs. #3 Oklahoma 52
 #5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
       #6 Oregon - no game
 #40 Louisville 31 vs. #7 West Virginia 38
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
 #30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
 #34 Florida St. 21 vs. #10 Virginia Tech 40

No surprise to find LSU running out winners against the local technical college. This was one of three matches to be as one-sided and obvious as a Manchester Buccaneers - Gretna game - the presumptive Bucs win would also have an upset-o-meter rating of 2. SCALF kept its charge alive with a victory over CALIF. Remember the days when LSVLE-WVIRG matches actually meant something? That's 2006 nostalgia for you. And remember when Boston College was a number 3 team? The side's now scrabbling for a place in the top 20, so save your nostalgia for I Remember Thursday Last Week, coming soon to an obscure station.

Other top-40 matches

 #17 Auburn 20 vs. #15 Georgia 45
 #33 Texas A&M 26 vs. #16 Missouri 40
 #37 Arkansas 13 vs. #21 Tennessee 34
 #23 Wake Forest 10  vs. #22 Clemson 44
 #38 TCU 22 vs. #24 BYU 27
 #32 Connecticut 3 vs. #31 Cincinnati 27

Everything going to form, even in the three matches between sides separated by a statistical quirk.

Sending the Upset-o-meter into Meltdown This Week

47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21
43- East Carolina 7 vs. #104 Marshall 26
39- #110 Louisiana-Lafayette 34 vs. Middle Tennessee 24
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
38- UTEP 19 vs. #116 Tulane 34
34- Colorado 28 vs. Iowa St. 31
34- Michigan St. 48 vs. #29 Purdue 31
33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37
33- #36 Alabama 12 vs. Mississippi St. 17
31- Ohio 37  vs. #100 Akron 48

Two matches exceed the 40-point conservative estimate we made of App State's win, two whole Michigan losses ago. Ohio Province's loss is the biggest scalp for Illinois, which has previously featured here with victories over Indiana (35-point upset, week 4), Penn State (40-point, week 5), and Wisconsin (43-point, week 6). After that sequence, some commentators posited that the side belonged in the top 20. Maybe they do.

Provincial Championship Update

 Cent. Michigan 34  vs. W. Michigan 31
 North Carolina 27 vs. N.C. State 31
 #30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
 #5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58

Notre Dame, and App. State's Beatpath

 Air Force 41 vs. Notre Dame 24
X- Elon 31 vs. The Citadel 42

Appalachian was beaten by Wofford, in turn beaten last week by Elon, now beaten by The Citadel. At this rate, Michigan's beatpath won't even go into the Division I-AA final tournament.

Hey! Big scorers!

X- W. Carolina 35 vs. Appalachian St. 79
X- Richmond 62 vs. Delaware 56
X- Illinois St. 24 vs. S. Illinois 34
 Kansas St. 31 vs. Nebraska 73
 Navy 74 vs. #115 North Texas 62

The 136-point aggregate in that final game is a record for top-flight play.

Not Tickling the Upset-o-meter

 3- #19 Penn St. 31 vs. Temple 0
 2- #12 Boise St. 52 vs. #118 Utah St. 0
 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58

We can certainly see why Boise needs to play Utah St: both are in the WACaday, which is a round-robin league. We can just about justify Louisiana Purchase's match against Louisiana Technical College, the clue's in the name. But there's no excuse for Penn Province to schedule a game against Temple, thus ending the latter's bowl aspirations.

Top 30

LY   LW   TW          Conf    R      RD   Idle
==================================================================
 4    2    1   LSU     SE   1379   112.1   0   Louisiana Purchase
 2    1    2   OHIST   BX   1370   115.2   0   Ohio Province
 9    3    3   OKLAH   BT   1331   108.3   0   Oklahoma
 1    5    4   SCALF   PX   1329   110.8   0   Southern California
10    7    5   WVIRG   BE   1314   116.4   0   W Virginia
32    6    6   OREGN   PX   1299   103.3   1   Oregon
 5    9    7   TEXAS   BT   1297   106.8   0   Texas
11   10    8   VTECH   AC   1281   107.7   0   Virginia Tech
12    4    9   MICH    BX   1280   106.5   0   Michigan
 3   11   10   FLORD   SE   1265   106.4   0   Florida
36   13   11   ARZST   PX   1259    99.9   0   Arizona Province
18   15   12   GRGIA   SE   1257   104.6   0   Georgia
53   14   13   KANSS   BT   1247   102.7   0   Kansas
13   12   14   BSEST   WA   1246   104.6   0   Boise State
38   16   15   MISRI   BT   1245   102.6   0   Missouri
 7   18   16   WISCO   BX   1244   106.4   0   Wisconsin
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1235   102.5   0   Michigan 2
19    8   17   BOSCL   AC   1232   109.6   0   Boston College
17   19   18   PENST   BX   1207   103.2   0   Penn Province
30   21   19   TENSE   SE   1198    99.8   0   Tennessee
34   22   20   CLEMS   AC   1195   103.7   0   Clemson
21   24   21   BYU     MW   1188   106.8   0   Brigham Young
 8   17   22   AUBRN   SE   1180   107.0   0   Auburn
15   20   23   CALIF   PX   1173   102.7   0   California
39   25   24   HAWII   WA   1173   120.2   0   Hawaii
54   26   25   KNTCY   SE   1165   107.6   0   Kentucky
56   27   26   VIRGI   AC   1162    96.8   0   Virginia
44   31   27   CINCI   BE   1159   105.3   0   Cincinnati
27   28   28   ORGST   PX   1151   100.5   0   Oregon Territory
23   23   29   WAKEF   AC   1135    99.7   0   Wake Forest
31   45   30   MARYL   AC   1129   104.7   0   Maryland

The entire top ten is within one RD of the leader, and must have a credible claim to the championship game; most of the top 25 is within two RD, and can seriously look at the top five bowls. Maryland's big win catapults them into the top 30, with Utah (up 11 to 33) and Illinois (up 14 to 38) also making big moves.

BCS divisions

AC CLEMS (20) takes over atop the Atlantic division, half a game clear of BOSCL (17; plays CLEMS next week) with WAKEF (29) one game off the lead; WAKEF lost head-to-heads against both rivals. The Coastal division is between VIRGI (26) and VTECH (8); the former has a half-game lead, and the sides meet on 24 Nov.

BE CONNC (40) suffered its first loss in divisional play this week, WVIRG (7) is half a game adrift, and CINCI (27) is a game off the pace. WVIRG plays CINCI and CONNC in the next two weeks, so all sides are masters of their own destiny.

BT KANSS (13) leads the North, a game clear of MISRI (15; sides meet 24 Nov). In the South, OKLAH (3) leads TEXAS (7) by half a game, and has the tie-break.

BX As you were at the top, with OHIST (2) and MICH (9) a game clear of ILLNS (38). OHIST and MICH end their seasons with next week's game, the winner has the title.

PX ARZST (11) still leads the division, half-a-game ahead of OREGN (6). Powerhouses SCALF (4) are just one win away from taking the division. OREGN has beaten both other contenders, SCALF and ARZST meet on 22 November.

SE GRGIA (12) heads the East subdivision, half-a-game ahead of TENSE (19) and FLORD (10). GRGIA lost to TENSE, who lost to FLORD, who lost to GRGIA; the latter's match against GEOTC on 24 November could decide the sub-division, with a win guaranteeing the title, and a loss sending us reaching for the rulebook. LSU (1) has the West sewn up, a game-and-a-half advantage - and head-to-head wins - over AUBRN (22) and ALABM (47).

Other divisions

CU UCF (60) tops the East, a half-game ahead of ECARL (63), but the Carolina side has the tie-break. A win for TULSA (51) over HOUST (64) leaves the two sides locked at the top of the West, clear of all opposition.

MA MIOHO (89) is the only Miami in bowl contention, leading the East by half-a-game from BUFFL (102) and BOWLG (86); Miami beat both contenders. CMICH (57) is two clear of BALLS (83) for the West.

MW BYU (21) takes a one-game lead over AIRFC (52), with UTAH (33) and NEWMX (50) a further half-game back.

SB TROY (62) leads FLATL (77) by one; the sides meet on 1 December.

WA HAWII (24) and BSEST (14) are perfect +6-0 in divisional play, with FRSST (69) a game and a half back. The leaders meet on 23 November; both have beaten Fresno. Indeed, +9-0 HAWII and +10-0 KANSS are the only two sides able to end the regular season without a defeat.

XX NAVY (48) the only side looking for bowls, +6-4 is not certain. ARMY (106) has 3 wins, NOTDM (68) just one.

Next week

We 1730 MA: #85 Toledo -v- #83 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #96 Akron -v- #89 Miamiohio (tape)
Fr 1800 PX: #6 Oregon -v- #66 Arizona (tape)
Sa 0400 WA: #24 Hawaii -v- #71 Nevada
Sa 1700 BX: #2 Ohio Province -v- #9 Michigan
Sa 2000   Game tbc
Su 0900   Game tbc
Su 1200   Game tbc

Helpful, that.

NCAA |

older writing... write to