A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Sun 04 Nov 2007

NCAA week 10

Most Successful Religious Institution Of The Year

 #107 Temple 7  vs. Ohio 23

Though TEMPL's late surge for a post-season game looks to have come unstuck - this was the side's sixth defeat - they've still climbed an awfully long way in a few weeks. And accumulated more wins than the Parisian cathedral.

Margin of Victory Watch

 Nebraska 39 vs. #16 Kansas 76
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31

In the Glicko ranking system, we deem all wins to be equal. As we discussed on Friday, there are arguments to consider margin of victory. In these two matches, the winning side scored roughly twice as many points as their opposition. Should a ranking system reward Kansas for scoring a point-and-a-quarter per minute? Reward Nebraska for scoring so many points? Penalise Kansas for conceding so many? Reward Kansas Province for pulling back to within respectability? Reward Iowa Province for hanging on in the teeth of fierce opposition? Reward Iowa for overcoming such difficult opposition? Discuss. Show your working.

Swiss System Watch

 #23 Clemson 47 vs. #112 Duke 10
 #110 Louisiana-Lafayette 7 vs. #22 Tennessee 59
 #97 Akron 20 vs. #96 Bowling Green 44

We still think that sides should adopt a Swiss scheme to schedule their matches: pick their opponents for the first four games, another one in the middle, the last match, and name their bye weeks, then use some clever algorithm to match sides at a similar level to play each other two weeks hence. It couldn't be less one-sided than this lot.

Who Have App State Wofford Elon Beaten This Week?

X- Elon 49 vs. Furman 52

Bring out the signwriters.

Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?

 #119 Fla. International 24 vs. Arkansas St. 27

The worst team in the current Glickoblog rankings almost pulled off the upset of the century, keeping Arkansas Purchase to within three points. Carry on like this and they might actually finish at +1-11.

Utterly Rubbish Team Almost Wins Game!

 Navy 46 vs. Notre Dame 44

Stale magazine published some numbers this week. Apparently, NOTDM has the worst ground attack in the league. If it were twice as good, it would still only be 117th best. Still, being sunk by only two points almost counts as an improvement; being the only thing the Navy's sunk this year might not.

Last Week's Top Ten

 #14 Wisconsin 17 vs. #1 Ohio St. 38
 #2 LSU 41 vs. #35 Alabama 34
41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
 #4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
 #31 Texas A&M 14 vs. #5 Oklahoma 42
      #6 Virginia West - no match
 #26 Oregon St. 3 vs. #7 Southern Cal 24
 #8 Arizona St. 23 vs. #9 Oregon 35
 #10 Texas 38 vs. Oklahoma St. 35

All eyes were on Oregon for the match of the day, and Arizona Province came away with their first defeat of the season. Ohio Province won the big early match, downing Wisconsin without breaking sweat, but LSU had a tricky task against Alabama. Upset of the day came as BOSCL also lost their unbeaten record, going down to the maddeningly inconsistent FLAST; this game was played in the teeth of hurricane Noel, allowing FLAST to wear their dazzling shirts. Michigan nearly suffered their third humiliation of the season, leaving it late to beat the Provincial side. Texas also found the going tough against Oklahoma Territory, though the A and M department was no match for Oklahoma. SCALF won, restoring normal service.

Other Top 40 Matches

 #12 Virginia Tech 27  vs. #30 Georgia Tech 3
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17
 #24 Purdue 19 vs. #21 Penn St. 26

The Upset-o-meter

41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
38- #29 UCLA 27 vs. Arizona 34
38- Wyoming 24 vs. San Diego St. 27
35- N.C. State 19 vs. Miami 16
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31
33- UTEP 48 vs. #100 Rice 56
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17

Three more matches to add to the pile of 35-point upsets; UCLA's defeat sends them spinning out of the top 40.

Provincial Championships

 #4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
X- S. Illinois 10 vs. W. Illinois 9
 Army 10 vs. Air Force 30

Matches That We'll Explain Shortly

 #99 Buffalo 28 vs. #95 Miami (Ohio) 31
 #50 New Mexico 0 vs. #48 TCU 37

TCU's win gives them a stronger position to win the Mountain-West title.

Top 30

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
 2    1    1   OHIST   BX   1434   116.8   0   Ohio Province
 4    2    2   LSU     SE   1376   112.3   0   Louisiana Territory
 9    5    3   OKLAH   BT   1326   109.1   0   Oklahoma
12    4    4   MICH    BX   1320   110.1   0   Michigan
 1    7    5   SCALF   PX   1306   115.1   0   Southern California
32    9    6   OREGN   PX   1299   103.3   0   Oregon
10    6    7   WVIRG   BE   1295   119.9   1   W Virginia
19    3    8   BOSCL   AC   1281   112.8   0   Boston College
 5   10    9   TEXAS   BT   1278   110.2   0   Texas
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1268   105.9   0   Michigan 2
11   12   10   VTECH   AC   1261   111.3   0   Virginia Tech
 3   13   11   FLORD   SE   1246   109.8   0   Florida
13   11   12   BSEST   WA*  1244   104.3   0   Boise State
36    8   13   ARZST   PX   1242   102.6   0   Arizona Province
53   16   14   KANSS   BT   1230   105.5   0   Kansas
18   15   15   GRGIA   SE   1229   108.4   0   Georgia
38   18   16   MISRI   BT   1224   105.9   0   Missouri
 8   17   17   AUBRN   SE   1209   110.4   1   Auburn
 7   14   18   WISCO   BX   1204   110.0   0   Wisconsin
17   21   19   PENST   BX   1203   103.6   0   Penn Province
15   20   20   CALIF   PX   1193   105.8   0   California
30   22   21   TENSE   SE   1176   102.8   0   Tennessee
34   23   22   CLEMS   AC   1166   107.4   0   Clemson
23   19   23   WAKEF   AC   1162   102.8   0   Wake Forest
21   25   24   BYU     MW*  1161   110.8   0   Brigham Young
39   27   25   HAWII   WA*  1149   124.9   1   Hawaii
54   28   26   KNTCY   SE   1147   110.2   1   Kentucky
56   37   27   VIRGI   AC   1142    99.4   0   Virginia
27   26   28   ORGST   PX   1134   103.1   0   Oregon Territory
45   24   29   PRDUE   BX   1134    99.7   0   Purdue
24   36   30   TXSTC   BT   1131   105.1   0   Texas Tech

The top spot looks set to be decided, albeit indirectly, by the match between Ohio Province and Michigan two weeks hence. A win for Ohio should confirm them as number 1, and invite the championship match against LSU or Oklahoma. Lose, and the cat enters the flock of pigeons. Lower down, we find Boise State looming outside the top ten: we'll discuss the WAC in a moment.

The See You Jimmy Division

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
66   52   50   ECARL   CU   1057   106.1   0   E Carolina
55   57   56   HOUST   CU   1025   102.5   1   Houston
59   61   58   TULSA   CU   1022   106.1   0   Tulsa
96   71   63   UCF     CU   1006   103.6   0   Central Florida
58   75   78   SMISS   CU    933   106.2   0   S Mississippi
85   78   84   UTEP    CU    878   104.3   0   Texas El Paso
72   100  92   RICE    CU    840   106.4   0   Rice
103  98   99   MEMPH   CU    798   104.7   0   Memphis
92   104  104  MARSL   CU    764   110.2   0   Marshall
79   109  108  SMU     CU    747   105.2   1   Southern Methodist
104  111  113  UAB     CU    716   109.2   0   Alabama, Birmingham
102  115  116  TULNE   CU    684   108.4   0   Tulane

ECARL leads UCF by a half-game in the Eastern subdivision, and has the head-to-head win. SMISS is a further half-game back, they beat ECARL in week 2. HOUST holds a half-game lead over TULSA in the West; they play SMU to-night and TULSA next week-end.

The Mid-Amorican

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
57   58   59   CMICH   MA   1021   102.7   1   Central Michigan
91   81   85   BALLS   MA    876   102.2   0   Ball State
88   86   86   TOLED   MA    872   100.8   0   Toledo
78   89   87   OHIO    MA    860    99.5   0   Ohio U
107  96   90   BOWLG   MA    848   106.6   0   Bowling Green
112  95   91   MIOHO   MA    846    98.7   0   Miami-Ohio
71   94   95   WMICH   MA    821   103.8   1   West Michigan
97   97   100  AKRON   MA    784   102.2   0   Akron
118  99   102  BUFFL   MA    780   104.6   0   Buffalo
106  106  103  KENTS   MA    768   109.1   1   Kent State
117  107  109  TEMPL   MA    737   111.7   0   Temple
77   114  112  NILNS   MA    720   107.4   1   N Illinois
115  113  114  EMICH   MA    707   105.2   0   East Michigan

MIOHO is the unexpected leader of the East division, taking that place after beating BUFFL last night. BOWLG is a further game back, but Miami took the win when they met last month. CMICH is a game and a half clear in the West division, and finishes off with doozy matches against WMICH and EMICH.

The Western Athletic

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
13   11   12   BSEST   WA   1244   104.3   0   Boise State
39   27   25   HAWII   WA   1149   124.9   1   Hawaii
76   66   65   FRSST   WA   1000   109.4   0   Fresno State
47   72   74   NEVDA   WA    973   107.2   0   Nevada
69   84   88   SNJST   WA    854   107.5   0   San Jose State
100  102  96   LSATC   WA    807   109.6   0   Louisiana Tech
113  103  105  NMXST   WA    762   116.4   0   New Mexico Territory
109  117  117  IDAHO   WA    616   111.1   0   Idaho
114  118  118  UTHST   WA    593   115.5   0   Utah Territory

Boise and Hawaii have yet to lose: their match on 23 November will decide the title, and may result in a top 10 finish for Boise. Hawaii is playing a strange pattern of games, with just one match between 12 October and 10 November, then three in 13 days.

State of Independents

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
41   55   48   NAVY    XX   1063   106.5   0   Navy
14   53   62   NOTDM   XX   1010   102.2   0   Notre Dame
108  105  106  ARMY    XX    761   113.9   0   Army

Next week, we'll be re-capping all the divisional leaders, and detailing where battles remain.

Next week's televised games

Fr 0030 BE: #40 Louisville -v- #7 Virginia West
Fr 0500 MA: #87 Ohio -v- #100 Akron (tape)
Sa 0900 XX: #41 Rutgers -v- #106 Army (tape)
Sa 1700 BX: #4 Michigan -v- #18 Wisconsin
Sa 2030 SE: #17 Auburn -v- #15 Georgia
Su 0900 BX: #52 Illinois -v- #1 Ohio Province
Su 1200 BT: #14 Kansas -v- #46 Oklahoma Territory
We 1730 MA: #86 Toledo -v- #85 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #100 Akron -v- #91 Miamiohio (tape)

We are, one assumes, to take it that NASN actually stands for Now Akron's Sports Network.

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