A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Sun 21 Oct 2007

Hit the perfect beat

It's been a very low-scoring week in NCAA-ball.

We predict a 0:0 draw

 Cent. Michigan 14 vs. Clemson 70
 Nevada 67  vs. #17 Boise St. 69

Right. And it'll be New Zealand - France in the world cup final.

Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?

 #3 Southern Cal 38 vs. Notre Dame 0

Hands up who's surprised. Dave Ross's ground unit ran for the grand total of 10 yards. Honestly, a fleet of dustbins could do better.

Mismatch Of The Day

 #110 N. Illinois 3 vs. #19 Wisconsin 44

Again, hands up who's surprised.

The NCAA-ball runs from A to Z, almost

 Wyoming 12 vs. Air Force 20

Almost: Air Force is the first side alphabetically, and (until Youngstown steps up to the oche) Wyoming is the last. There's not much to choose between these powerhouses of the Mountain-West division.

Close Matches By Ranking

 #69 Stanford 21 vs. #70 Arizona 20
 #95 Bowling Green 31 vs. #96 Kent St. 20
 #116 Idaho 31 vs. #109 New Mexico St. 45
 #119 Fla. International 14 vs. #107 Louisiana-Monroe 28

The Bottom Ten

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R     RD    Idle
===================================================================
104  105  110  UAB     CU   745   115.0   0   Alabama, Birmingham
77   110  111  NILNS   MA   744   111.4   0   N Illinois
116  111  112  DUKE    AC   742   129.7   1   Duke
95   106  113  LOLAF   SB   739   107.8   0   Louisiana Lafayette
102  117  114  TULNE   CU   721   114.6   0   Tulane
110  113  115  NTEXS   SB   708   114.2   0   North Texas
115  115  116  EMICH   MA   679   115.4   0   East Michigan
109  116  117  IDAHO   WA   649   117.6   0   Idaho
114  118  118  UTHST   WA   625   121.9   0   Utah Territory
119  119  119  FLINT   SB   584   124.1   0   Florida International

What's happened to the two climbers out of the bottom ten? Stay tuned!

Intervilles

X- Ark.-Pine Bluff 14 vs. Alabama A&M 31
 Miamiflorida 37 vs. Florida St. 29
41- N.C. State 34 vs. East Carolina 20

It must be really galling for Miamiflorida to get their first mention here from playing in their territorial championship. Two years ago, it the NCAA-ball title was in their sights.

Last week's top ten

 Michigan St. 17 vs. #1 Ohio St. 24
 #13 Auburn 24 vs. #2 LSU 30
 #3 Southern Cal 38 vs. Notre Dame 0
      #4 Boston College - no game
 #5 Oklahoma 17 vs. Iowa St. 7
 #6 Michigan 27 vs. Illinois 17
      #7 Virginia Techincal College - no game
 Mississippi St. 13 vs. #8 West Virginia 38
31- #9 California 21 vs. #28 UCLA 30
      #10 Arizona Province - no game

A very run-of-the-mill win for Ohio Province; Louisiana's victory over Auburn means much more in the big game of the season. Southern California can't have expected that its blowout victory over Notre Dame would see their vanquished opposition slip out of the top 50. Oklahoma, Michigan, and Virginia West all beat up on sides in the third quartile. No such luck for California, beaten by the maddeningly inconsistent side from Senora Riena - if it wasn't for two upset defeats, UCLA would be pushing for the top ten.

Other Top 40 Matches

 #11 Florida 45 vs. #18 Kentucky 37
32- #12 South Florida 27 vs. #40 Rutgers 30
 #20 Texas Tech 10 vs. #25 Missouri 41
 #37 Virginia 18 vs. #29 Maryland 17
 #32 Texas A&M 36 vs. #36 Nebraska 14

We mentioned last week how Kentucky had risen from 54 to 18; this defeat might give us an upper bound to their talent before Notre Dame allows us a lower bound to their lack-of-talent. South Florida had claims to make the top ten, that defeat is still their first of the season; quite how those Mickey Mouse commentators at ESPN managed to rank them in position 2 is beyond us, unless they forgot to type in the number "1". Missouri and Virginia are other sides making strides, 38th and 56th last season.

Upset-o-meter ticklers

43- Vanderbilt 17 vs. #15 South Carolina 6
42- #30 Cincinnati 17 vs. Pittsburgh 24
41- N.C. State 34 vs. East Carolina 20
36- Miami (Ohio) 17 vs. #114 Temple 24
35- #112 Memphis 38 vs. Rice 35
33- Tulsa 23 vs. UCF 44
33- #35 Louisville 17 vs. Connecticut 21
33- #117 Tulane 41 vs. SMU 34
32- #12 South Florida 27 vs. #40 Rutgers 30
31- #9 California 21 vs. #28 UCLA 30
31- #21 Tennessee 17 vs. Alabama 41

It's difficult to over-state the size of those defeats at the top there, particularly Vanderbilt's 63-place knock-off of Carolina South. The second defeat makes it almost impossible for the side to make the top ten. Cincinnati should just look embarrassed, particularly if we remind them about their former mayor Springer.

And look at Temple go! Three wins on the trot, up to the giddy heights of position 107, and they're 28 points ahead on the year. This after managing 1, 0, 2, and 1 wins in the past four seasons. Carry on at this rate and a place in the post-season beckons for Temple rather than Notre Dame.

Who Have Appalachian State Wofford beaten this week?

X- Elon 24 vs. Wofford 13

So Elon beat the side (Wofford) who beat the side (App State) who beat the side (Michigan) who beat the side (Notre Dame) who beat the side (UCLA) who beat the side tipped just last week as a potential Best In Show. All of which can only mean that the NCAA-ball final should be between Elon and the winners of the match between Ohio Province and Temple. That's the sort of institutional advancement we would like to see!

Seriously, we would rather like to see a few post-season matches between the lesser lights, and something along the lines of Most Improved Lower Conference Side (this year probably Temple, last year Kent State) against Decent Side From Division II (Elon, hello) would be a good sporting contest. Wouldn't make much money, of course... oh. Right. We'll be moving along, then.

The Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R     RD    Idle
===================================================================
 2    1    1   OHIST   BX   1395   125.5   0   Ohio Province
 4    2    2   LSU     SE   1361   114.7   0   Louisiana Territory
 1    3    3   SCALF   PX   1331   125.6   0   Southern California
 9    5    4   OKLAH   BT   1307   112.0   0   Oklahoma
19    4    5   BOSCL   AC   1304   120.4   1   Boston College
12    6    6   MICH    BX   1303   113.3   0   Michigan
 3   11    7   FLORD   SE   1276   117.0   0   Florida
11    7    8   VTECH   AC   1269   120.5   1   Virginia Tech
10    8    9   WVIRG   BE   1267   125.5   0   W Virginia
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1248   109.5   0   Michigan 2
36   10   10   ARZST   PX   1244   109.3   1   Arizona Province
 5   14   11   TEXAS   BT   1236   118.3   0   Texas
32   16   12   OREGN   PX   1232   110.6   0   Oregon
13   17   13   BSEST   WA   1223   107.9   0   Boise State
15    9   14   CALIF   PX   1204   113.3   0   California
 7   19   15   WISCO   BX   1204   118.0   0   Wisconsin
 8   13   16   AUBRN   SE   1201   111.8   0   Auburn
38   25   17   MISRI   BT   1197   110.8   0   Missouri
25   28   18   UCLA    PX   1191   107.9   0   Calif, Senora Riena
17   22   19   PENST   BX   1190   110.1   0   Penn Province
23   24   20   WAKEF   AC   1188   107.9   0   Wake Forest
42   12   21   SFLOR   BE   1185   115.2   0   S Florida
53   26   22   KANSS   BT   1179   113.3   0   Kansas
54   18   23   KNTCY   SE   1170   109.8   0   Kentucky
18   23   24   GRGIA   SE   1169   115.3   1   Georgia
28   32   25   TEXAM   BT   1169   107.1   0   Texas A and M
35   15   26   SCARO   SE   1164   111.2   0   S Carolina
24   20   27   TXSTC   BT   1160   110.5   0   Texas Tech
20   40   28   RUTGR   BE   1159   114.2   0   Rutgers
56   37   29   VIRGI   AC   1155   104.0   0   Virginia
21   27   30   BYU     MW   1153   111.0   1   Brigham Young

Florida's big win sends them climbing up into the top ten. Note that there's no argument that Michigan is a good side, deserving of a top ten place. Missoura and Senora Riena also scoot up following their big wins, while California - number 3 just two weeks ago - is sinking like a Parisian cathedral.

The "Big" Twelve

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R     RD    Idle
===================================================================
 9    5    4   OKLAH   BT   1307   112.0   0   Oklahoma
 5   14   11   TEXAS   BT   1236   118.3   0   Texas
38   25   17   MISRI   BT   1197   110.8   0   Missouri
53   26   22   KANSS   BT   1179   113.3   0   Kansas
28   32   25   TEXAM   BT   1169   107.1   0   Texas A and M
24   20   27   TXSTC   BT   1160   110.5   0   Texas Tech
22   36   40   NBRSK   BT   1101   104.4   0   Nebraska
50   49   42   OKLST   BT   1091   108.6   0   Oklahoma Territory
46   41   46   KNSST   BT   1072   110.8   0   Kansas Province
70   56   61   COLRD   BT   1006   104.3   0   Colorado
63   74   78   BAYLR   BT    925   110.0   0   Baylor
64   86   84   IWAST   BT    869   115.0   0   Iowa Province

Kansas heads the North division, a game clear of Missouri; the two sides meet on 24 November. Oklahoma, Texas A and M, and Oklahoma Territory are tied at the top of the South division; OKLAH plays TEXAM on 3 November, OKLST on the 24th; TEXAM beat OKLST two weeks ago.

The Sun Belt

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R     RD    Idle
===================================================================
81   64   57   TROY    SB  1011   116.1   0   Troy
101  77   77   FLATL   SB   927   112.0   0   Florida Atlantic
86   88   81   MDTEN   SB   903   112.1   0   Middle Tennessee
94   82   87   ARKST   SB   857   107.7   0   Arkansas Province
99   107  102  LOMON   SB   780   113.4   0   Louisiana Monroe
95   106  113  LOLAF   SB   739   107.8   0   Louisiana Lafayette
110  113  115  NTEXS   SB   708   114.2   0   North Texas
119  119  119  FLINT   SB   584   124.1   0   Florida International

Fairly clear where this one's going: Troy enjoys a half-game advantage over FLATL, the two sides will meet on 1 December.

Next week's NASN-UK matches

Fr 1330 AC: #5 Boston College -v- #8 Virginia College of Technology
Sa 1700 BE: #9 West Virginia -v- #28 Rutgers (live)
Sa 2030 SE: #24 Georgia -v- #7 Florida (live)
Su 1630 AC: #36 Clemson -v- #38 Maryland
Su 1930 BX: #1 Ohio Province -v- #19 Penn Province

Don't forget, next week is the week the clocks go back, and that's traditionally a home for upsets, unexpected results, and things that go bump in the night.

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