A similar, more intuitive and less complex graph is proposed by Beatpaths, which has applied its work to Bayes'-ball and NFL-ball. Comments discuss generating minimal feedback arcs, rather than removing the entire loops of minimal length; it is trivial to prove the existing stategy optimal if and only if we assume all wins are equal. A subsequent post discusses fluke wins, removing a single edge where this contradicts two distinct paths (in other words, removal of a single edge would break two cycles.)
We hope to apply this graphing technique to matches in individual conferences once the regular season ends, and compare the results to the Glickoblog results. At this stage, we do not propose to construct the 119-node graph involving all NCAA sides; there does not exist a margin of sufficient size for this project.
Last Week's Top Ten
40- #1 LSU 37 vs. #30 Kentucky 43
#98 Kent St. 3 vs. #2 Ohio St. 48
39- Oregon St. 31 vs. #3 California 28
Arizona 13 vs. #4 Southern Cal 20
#5 Boston College 27 vs. Notre Dame 14
#20 Missouri 31 vs. #6 Oklahoma 41
#31 Purdue 21 vs. #7 Michigan 48
#8 Virginia Tech 43 vs. #110 Duke 14
No match for #9 West Virginia
30- #10 Wisconsin 7 vs. #25 Penn St. 38
For the second week running, the Glickoblog leader has been defeated: this time, the rising stars of Kentucky required three periods of extra time to defeat Louisiana. Justice should require us to penalise Ohist somehow for choosing to play Kent; the prospect of a meltdown 50-point upset evidently wasn't enough to stop the moneybags from scheduling a side that only missed last year's postseason on the Pick A Favourite shenanigans. California also suffered an upset defeat against another handy side, ORGST have been just outside the top 30 all year. Useful wins for Oklahoma and Michigan, and Virginia Technical College has the excuse that Duke is in their division. Wisconsin's second straight defeat sends them plummeting - is it really only two weeks since they were ranked in position 4?
No, ESPN, you won't find Illinois's defeat listed highly. You can call them a number 18 side until you're blue in the face: as far as we're concerned, they were a number 49 side, and yesterday's results rather proved it. Just as Missouri's loss proved 11 was wrong, and 20 was about right. As for The door is wide open now for Cal to move into the No. 1 spot [rolls eyes].
We already know the answer, but let's do it anyway.
Who have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?
#5 Boston College 27 vs. Notre Dame 14
It's worth noting that NOTDM is now +1-6; one more defeat will see the side ineligible to make any post-season match, never mind sneak into the BCS Five by the back door.
Other Top 40 matches
#22 Texas A&M 7 vs. #24 Texas Tech 35 #32 Florida St. 21 vs. #34 Wake Forest 24 #36 Georgia Tech 17 vs. #38 Miamiflorida 14
Other closely-ranked rivals
#91 Bowling Green 14 vs. #92 Miami 47 #114 Tulane 21 vs. #112 UAB 26 #100 New Mexico St. 21 vs. #111 Louisiana Tech 22 33- #101 Louisiana-Monroe 21 vs. #116 North Texas 31
Who have Wofford Beaten This Week?
X- Gardner-Webb 17 vs. Wofford 52
Provincial Championship News
UCF 12 vs. #13 South Florida 63 #15 South Carolina 21 vs. North Carolina 15 #22 Texas A&M 7 vs. #24 Texas Tech 35 X- Tennessee St. 45 vs. Tennessee Tech 28
The Upset-o-meter
40- #117 Temple 24 vs. Akron 20 40- #1 LSU 37 vs. #30 Kentucky 43 39- Oregon St. 31 vs. #3 California 28 36- Oklahoma St. 45 vs. #21 Nebraska 14 33- #101 Louisiana-Monroe 21 vs. #116 North Texas 31 32- New Mexico 20 vs. Wyoming 3 32- Louisville 28 vs. #18 Cincinnati 24 32- Illinois 6 vs. Iowa 10 30- #10 Wisconsin 7 vs. #25 Penn St. 38
Yes, Temple is quite clearly learning from Kent State last year, and embarking on a thrilling run during October and November that will leave the side short of the play-offs thanks only to the insularity and snobbishness of a flawed selection system. That's now two wins in a row for the side, which has risen remarkably:
The Bottom Ten
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle =================================================================== 77 107 110 NILNS MA 749 112.3 0 N Illinois 116 110 111 DUKE AC 742 129.7 0 Duke 103 108 112 MEMPH CU 739 114.7 0 Memphis 110 116 113 NTEXS SB 721 116.9 0 North Texas 117 117 114 TEMPL MA 712 120.2 0 Temple 115 113 115 EMICH MA 689 117.6 0 East Michigan 109 115 116 IDAHO WA 679 123.0 0 Idaho 102 114 117 TULNE CU 673 119.2 0 Tulane 114 118 118 UTHST WA 639 125.2 0 Utah Territory 119 119 119 FLINT SB 610 129.3 1 Florida International
For values of "remarkable" that encompass a soar from 119th to 114th. The 127 points represent over a quarter of the side's rating two weeks ago, which can't be all bad. Temple is now +2-5, which is a more winning record than certain other religious buildings can boast. NILNS, for the record, is +1-5, but with two losses recorded in the annals of the Upset-o-meter.
This Week's Top Thirty
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle =================================================================== 2 2 1 OHIST BX 1382 128.9 0 Ohio Province 4 1 2 LSU SE 1336 119.4 0 Louisiana Territory 1 4 3 SCALF PX 1314 129.9 0 Southern California 19 5 4 BOSCL AC 1304 120.4 0 Boston College 9 6 5 OKLAH BT 1301 113.1 0 Oklahoma 12 7 6 MICH BX 1290 115.9 0 Michigan 11 8 7 VTECH AC 1269 120.5 0 Virginia Tech 10 9 8 WVIRG BE 1254 123.5 1 W Virginia 15 3 9 CALIF PX 1248 118.0 0 California 36 12 10 ARZST PX 1244 109.3 0 Arizona Province 3 11 11 FLORD SE 1243 122.0 1 Florida 12 -- -- MICH2 BX 1233 112.4 0 Michigan 2 42 13 12 SFLOR BE 1232 119.9 0 S Florida 8 16 13 AUBRN SE 1225 116.1 0 Auburn 5 14 14 TEXAS BT 1223 121.3 0 Texas 35 15 15 SCARO SE 1220 113.2 0 S Carolina 32 17 16 OREGN PX 1216 113.8 0 Oregon 13 19 17 BSEST WA 1202 127.8 0 Boise State 54 30 18 KNTCY SE 1199 114.1 0 Kentucky 7 10 19 WISCO BX 1198 119.2 0 Wisconsin 24 24 20 TXSTC BT 1196 115.1 0 Texas Tech 30 23 21 TENSE SE 1179 110.8 0 Tennessee 17 25 22 PENST BX 1170 113.8 0 Penn Province 18 26 23 GRGIA SE 1169 115.3 0 Georgia 23 34 24 WAKEF AC 1166 111.7 0 Wake Forest 38 20 25 MISRI BT 1161 115.4 0 Missouri 53 33 26 KANSS BT 1156 117.7 0 Kansas 21 29 27 BYU MW 1153 111.0 0 Brigham Young 25 27 28 UCLA PX 1152 111.1 1 Calif, Senora Riena 31 28 29 MARYL AC 1151 114.7 1 Maryland 44 18 30 CINCI BE 1149 115.5 0 Cincinnati
As we expected, OHIST takes over at the top, with a whole bundle of sides gaining from California's loss. Arizona Province becomes the third side from that jurisdiction in the top ten, and is the only side to start the season +7-0. Their reward in the polls? Peanuts, showing how much the polls rely on blind prejudice and how little they take account of actual results. OHIST, BOSCL and OKLAH all booked their places in the post-season with their sixth wins against top-flight opposition. KNTCY gets its expected rewards for a famous win, now at the giddy heights of 18th. Texas A and M and Nebraska dip out of the 30 following their crunch losses; Wake Forest have been regular visitors to the circle, but we don't recall Kansas gracing us recently.
The "Big" East
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle =================================================================== 10 9 8 WVIRG BE 1254 123.5 1 W Virginia 42 13 12 SFLOR BE 1232 119.9 0 S Florida 44 18 30 CINCI BE 1149 115.5 0 Cincinnati 6 44 35 LSVLE BE 1132 122.1 0 Louisville 20 39 40 RUTGR BE 1113 118.8 0 Rutgers 80 53 63 CONNC BE 1005 117.1 0 Connecticut 61 82 87 PITTS BE 874 116.1 0 Pittsburgh 90 103 101 SYRAC BE 790 115.1 0 Syracuse
Cincinnati, Connecticut, and South Florida have the leading records in the division, a whopping +1-0. Those three sides will play each other during November, and the first two will meet West Virginia - the Florida side has already won their match.
The Pacific Ten
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle =================================================================== 1 4 3 SCALF PX 1314 129.9 0 Southern California 15 3 9 CALIF PX 1248 118.0 0 California 36 12 10 ARZST PX 1244 109.3 0 Arizona Province 32 17 16 OREGN PX 1216 113.8 0 Oregon 25 27 28 UCLA PX 1152 111.1 1 Calif, Senora Riena 27 42 34 ORGST PX 1134 108.7 0 Oregon Territory 65 58 61 WASNG PX 1006 117.1 0 Washington 51 66 68 WASST PX 957 112.5 0 Washington Territory 83 64 69 STANF PX 954 119.1 0 Stanford 43 70 70 ARIZN PX 948 115.7 0 Arizona
Arizona Province and Senora Riena are +3-0 in the division, California +2-0. There are those who claim AzP hasn't been tested yet: that will come in their next game in two weeks, against California. A trip to UCLA and a home tie against SCALF follows. UCLA plays California next week, and finishes against SCALF on 1 December.
Next week's televised games
A bonkers new schedule means that there are two rounders divisional finals scheduled for next Saturday night, when The World's series should be starting. These sponsors are crazy. If either or both of those matches ends early, expect additional coverage.
Fr 1400 South Florida -v- Rutgers Sa 1700 Match tbc (live) Su 0730 Tennessee -v- Alabama Su 1030 Colorado -v- Arizona Su 1400 Match tbc
NCAA |
