A Glicko Sports Blog

A Glicko Sports Blog

Tue 18 Sep 2007

Football weekly starts: now

The Upset-o-meter first. We reckon that a 30-point surprise victory is going to be recognised by the club's supporters as a surprise, a 35-point upset will be heard around the nation, a 40-point shock will be news around the world, and a 50-point upset will be one of the greatest shocks in the history of both clubs.

43 Juventus - Udinese 0:1
42 Aberdeen - Motherwell 1:2
41 Derby - Newcastle 1:0
39 Hearts - Rangers 4:2
37 Lens - Nancy 1:0
37 Bor. Dortmund - Werder Bremen 3:0
36 Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV 2:1
34 Teplice - Sparta Prague 2:1
33 Sunderland - Reading 2:1
33 Norwich City - Crystal Palace 1:0
33 Barnsley - Scunthorpe United 2:0
32 SSC Napoli - Sampdoria 2:0
32 Auxerre - Nice 2:0
31 Man City - Aston Villa 1:0
31 Birmingham City - Bolton Wanderers 1:0
30 Marseille - Toulouse 1:2
19 Siena - AC Milan 1:1

For those interested: we would hesitate to directly mix upsets here with NCAA-ball, but it's clear that Juventus's defeat is big news. Rangers may have lost the lead in Scotland, but Aberdeen have lost face ahead of their UEFA Cup engagement. Werder will also be heading into European competition.

England II and III

WAT   876   96
WBA   846   94.3
CHA   843   99
STK   811   97.2
SFU   801   95.7
BRC   790  128
IPS   759   96.1
SOT   757   95.9
CCR   756   97.7
PLY   742   95.2
WLV   738   95.1
BNL   737   98.5
BPL   736  125.6
HUL   730   93.3
PNE   725   96.4
LEI   718   98
CPL   709   96.9
COV   702   95.6
CDF   690   92.9
SCU   686  135.6
BAN   677   97.3
NOR   672   94.8
SFW   651   94.8
QPR   639  100.5

CRW (III)   714   144.8
LEE (III)   702   105.0
SEN (III)   666   101.5
BRI (III)   624   126.3
LUT (III)   601   108.8
MIL (III)   522   136.1

No surprises to find the top two in Division II - Watford and Bristol C - also doing well here. Blackpool are 5th in the league but only mid-table here, showing how tight the division is at this time of year. Sheffield W and QPR are in trouble. In Division III, Leeds lost no points on our analysis, and are highest-placed of the sides that have played this year. Southend has already played three of its ten league matches for our purposes.

The FA Cup

Results from the round 12 matches played last week-end:

1       Bradford Park Avenue     v     Scarborough         WO
3         Newcastle Benfield     v     Newcastle Blue Star 2:1
15            Fleetwood Town     v     Manchester United   2:1
29                  Rocester     v     Chasetown           0:1
38           Hednesford Town     v     Stratford Town      0:0
83                  Dartford     v     Sittingbourne       1:1
87            Cray Wanderers     v     Wimbledon           2:6
88          Maidstone United     v     Erith & Belvedere   3:0

So Manchester United, winners as recently as 2004, fall out, but 1988 champs Wimbledon progress.

Ties for the round 11 matches, where sides from Divisions VI N and S enter, include:

9   Bradford Park Avenue     v     Whitby Town
19         Cambridge City    v    Chasetown
23           Matlock Town    v    Telford United
27          Boston United    v    Buxton
30 Hednesford Town / Stratford Town    v    Alfreton Town
37 Hayes & Yeading United    v    Herne Bay
43 Dartford / Sittingbourne    v    Camberley Town
47        Billericay Town    v    Maidstone United
58            Debenham LC    v    Wimbledon
69            Oxford City    v    Weston Super Mare
75             Truro City    v    Bath City

ResultsTables |

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