Some matters arising from last week. Western Kentucky is officially transitioning to become a Division I-A team. The transition does not end until the 2009-10 season, and we will not rank the side before that date.
We said last week that Appalachian's victory was a contender for the greatest upset of the season. With so many months of action still to play, it is presumptious not to expect anything greater. One thing that the Glicko ranking enables us to do is to work out which is the greatest upset of the season... at least for matches involving I-A teams. We have a hole where I-AA sides go.
Last year, Sagarin ranked Appalachian as the 44th team in the ELO rankings, 55th in his Predictor algorithm, and 53rd overall. Other teams in the area were IOWA, SMISS, HOUST, and ALABM. (MICH, incidentally, finished 9th in ELO, 8th in Predictor, and 7th overall. No, we don't get that either.) It's interesting to note that Sagarin relegated Appalachian to 80th in his pre-season list, surrounded by HOUST, TOLED, MIOHO, SDGST. The Massey ratings preserve order from season to season, and initially put Appalacian at 78th, suggesting something around that area seems to be the consensus. In turn this suggests a notional rating in the region of (900, 150), and that makes the result worth 40 points on the Upset-o-meter.
Michigan has split. Following last week's humiliating loss to I-AA Appalachian, we have created a new team, MICH2. This is the Michigan team, but counting last week's humiliating loss to I-AA Appalachian as a loss to a side of (900, 150). The defeat cost MICH2 91 ranking points, and the side would have ranked 30th, one point ahead of Maryland. For the rest of the season, MICH's opponents will also play MICH2, we will work out the ranking for both Michigan sides, and see if there is any significant difference at the end of the season. Our gut feeling is that there will be a difference, but it won't be all that significant. The opponents will have their scores adjusted on the basis of MICH, because those were the rules when we went into this season. And if they hadn't gone for two in the third quarter, Michigan could well have forced extra time, and would surely have won on kicks from the 30-yard mark. TMQ's Football Gods snickered.
Last Week's Top Ten
#1 SCALF - no match Akron 2 vs. #2 Ohio St. 20 Troy 31 vs. #3 Florida 59 #8 Virginia Tech 7 vs. #4 LSU 48 #16 TCU 13 vs. #5 Texas 34 #6 Wisconsin 20 vs. UNLV 13 35- South Florida 26 vs. #7 Auburn 23 #29 Miami (Florida) 13 vs. #9 Oklahoma 51 Middle Tennessee 42 vs. #10 Louisville 58
We mentioned above how Appalachian shouldn't count on having the biggest upset of the year: Akron took a 2:0 lead over Ohio Province, and if that had been the final, it would have been a 46-point upset. The big match, though, was Louisiana Territory's match against Virginia Technical, won by the home side at a canter. The Texas Kingdom Championship match was won by the home side, ending TCU's nine-game winning streak, the fourth-longest in NCAA-ball going into yesterday's matches. Wisconsin extended its streak to 11 games, but Auburn was knocked off by the decent South Florida side. Miami (Florida) continued to lose games it should win, and at least Louisville has an excuse for running up the score this week.
Other high-ranked matches
#27 Oregon 39 vs. #14 Michigan 7 #26 Notre Dame 10 vs. #18 Penn St. 31 #33 South Carolina 16 vs. #19 Georgia 12 #20 BYU 17 vs. #23 UCLA 27
What do you do with a side that loses by a sneeze to a side ranked about 80th, and by a mile to a side ranked 27th? Arrange a game against a side that has also lost its opening two matches, albeit against slightly less modest opposition. +0-2 Michigan and +0-2 Notre Dame will meet next week, and we hope to have a result by this time next week. Apparently, there has to be a winner, even if the game drags on into Monday. South Carolina takes their first win against Georgia since 2001, and BYU's defeat ends their winning streak at 11 - it was the second-longest in the league.
Upset-o-rama
34- #15 Boise St. 10 vs. Washington 24 31- #22 Oregon St. 3 vs. Cincinnati 34 30- Air Force 20 vs. Utah 12 X- N. Iowa 24 vs. #81 Iowa St. 13
Boise's loss snaps their 14-game winning streak, the longest in NCAA-ball. For the hard of memory, that leaves WISCO's 11-game run the longest. And your house keys are on top of the microwave. Oregon Territory and Utah also lose ground, while Iowa loses the provincial battle to North Iowa, another I-AA side.
Which did the Pools Panel say would be goalless?
#117 Buffalo 42 vs. #115 Temple 7 Memphis 0 vs. Arkansas St. 0
Buffalo launched its bid for a bowl game with a handsome victory over Temple. Remember, Buffalo has more wins to its name than Michigan and Notre Dame. Combined. The Memphis match was postponed following an appearance by lightning; it will be played on 27 September.
More Provincial Championships
North Carolina 31 vs. East Carolina 34 Missouri 38 vs. Mississippi 25 New Mexico St. 34 vs. New Mexico 44 N. Arizona 24 vs. Arizona 45 X- W. Illinois 0 vs. #109 Illinois 21 X- S. Illinois 34 vs. N. Illinois 31
What happened to last week's heroes?
Lenoir-Rhyne 7 vs. Appalachian St. 48
Appalachian played five high-stakes games in a row: the four matches of the I-AA playoffs, and last week's game against Michigan. Their eight-game winning streak is now as long as the combined losing streaks of Michigan and Notre Dame - both sides lost their post-season games, and the final regular-season match last year.
Comedy result of the week
X- Waldorf 14 vs. Drake 45
Critic from the Muppets soundly beaten by Josh's friend.
The Top Thirty
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 4 4 1 LSU SE 1330 137.7 0 Louisiana Territory 1 1 2 SCALF PX 1319 153.6 1 Southern California 5 5 3 TEXAS BT 1309 141.2 0 Texas 2 2 4 OHIST BX 1308 149.2 0 Ohio Province 3 3 5 FLORD SE 1306 141.8 0 Florida 9 9 6 OKLAH BT 1280 132.1 0 Oklahoma 7 6 7 WISCO BX 1274 138.5 0 Wisconsin 6 10 8 LSVLE BE 1257 147.4 0 Louisville 10 11 9 WVIRG BE 1255 142.9 0 W Virginia 15 12 10 CALIF PX 1248 133.3 0 California 17 18 11 PENST BX 1236 135.9 0 Penn Province 19 13 12 BOSCL AC 1235 134.1 0 Boston College 22 21 13 NBRSK BT 1215 127.2 0 Nebraska 25 23 14 UCLA PX 1210 129.6 0 Calif, Senora Riena 11 8 15 VTECH AC 1207 133.9 0 Virginia Tech 32 27 16 OREGN PX 1205 128.6 0 Oregon 20 24 17 RUTGR BE 1196 133.6 0 Rutgers 24 28 18 TXSTC BT 1191 132.0 0 Texas Tech 29 19 19 GEOTC AC 1189 134.7 1 Georgia Tech 8 7 20 AUBRN SE 1182 138.2 0 Auburn 35 33 21 SCARO SE 1169 130.7 0 S Carolina 16 16 22 TCU MW 1169 137.1 0 Texas Christian 12 14 23 MICH BX 1161 139.4 0 Michigan 34 35 24 CLEMS AC 1160 131.2 0 Clemson 26 25 25 ARKNS SE 1159 140.5 1 Arkansas 28 30 26 TEXAM BT 1158 136.7 0 Texas A and M 36 32 27 ARZST PX 1151 127.6 0 Arizona Province 18 17 28 GRGIA SE 1148 133.8 0 Georgia 21 20 29 BYU MW 1139 127.6 0 Brigham Young 31 31 30 MARYL AC 1138 139.4 0 Maryland 13 15 31 BSEST WA 1132 143.5 0 Boise State
In the two years we've been running this model, only three sides have ever led the standings. SCALF, most of the time; TEXAS, for a few weeks at the start of last season; and OHIST for one week, immediately after the regular season last year. LSU adds its name to the roll of honour following its victory over VTECH. They slide, as does AUBRN, and upset losers BSEST. TEXAS rises back into the top three, following a good victory over TCU. The tweaks we made to the formula over the summer allows for big climbs for the week's other big winners, and slumps for the losers - NOTDM has now gone 14-26-36, and MICH2 would rank 41st if the parent team were excluded.
Conference Watch - The Moderately-Sized East
LY LW TW Conf R RD Idle ================================================================== 6 10 8 LSVLE BE 1257 147.4 0 Louisville 10 11 9 WVIRG BE 1255 142.9 0 W Virginia 20 24 17 RUTGR BE 1196 133.6 0 Rutgers 42 44 32 SFLOR BE 1124 137.1 0 S Florida 44 45 37 CINCI BE 1112 138.7 0 Cincinnati 61 53 57 PITTS BE 1010 140.5 1 Pittsburgh 80 71 72 CONNC BE 949 139.2 1 Connecticut 90 97 101 SYRAC BE 828 133.5 0 Syracuse
It's been a good year for the East so far, where all sides are +0-0 in divisional matches. The big three don't meet each other until the end of October.
Conference Watch - The Pacific Ten
1 1 2 SCALF PX 1319 153.6 1 Southern California 15 12 10 CALIF PX 1248 133.3 0 California 25 23 14 UCLA PX 1210 129.6 0 Calif, Senora Riena 32 27 16 OREGN PX 1205 128.6 0 Oregon 36 32 27 ARZST PX 1151 127.6 0 Arizona Province 27 22 35 ORGST PX 1120 126.7 0 Oregon Territory 65 49 41 WASNG PX 1088 134.4 0 Washington 51 59 53 WASST PX 1032 132.7 0 Washington Territory 43 54 58 ARIZN PX 1007 141.4 1 Arizona 83 90 85 STANF PX 887 142.2 1 Stanford
UCLA heads the official table, courtesy of its win over Stanford. SCALF's last four matches are against the four sides beneath them, California meets Oregon (29 Sept) and UCLA (20 Oct), but those are the only top-five matches before November.
Next week...
Matches on NASN-UK:
#9 West Virginia -v- #30 Maryland, 00.30 Friday.
#54 Oklahoma Territory -v- #86 Troy, 9am Saturday (tape)
#57 Pittsburgh -v- #56 Michigan Province, 5pm Saturday
#36 Notre Dame -v- #23-41 Michigan, 8.30 Saturday
#34 Tennessee -v- #5 Florida, 00.30 Sunday (tape)
#2 SCALF -v- #13 Nebraska, 2pm Sunday (tape)
NCAA |
