44 Celtic - HEARTS 1:2
39 Reggina - LIVORNO 1:3
32 AACHEN - Bochum 3:2
32 Rennes - VALENCIENNES 0:2
31 Karlsruhe - WOLFSBURG 0:1
22 LUTON - Everton 0:0
20 VALLADOLID - Barcelona 1:1

UPSET Wuppertal - Hertha Berlin 2:0
UPSET Werder Bremen - St Pauli 1:1
 Werder won 6:4 on KPM
UPSET Carl Zeiss Jena - Nurnburg 0:0
 Carl Zeiss Jena won 7:6 on KPM
UPSET Koblenz - Bielefeld 1:1
 Bielefeld won 1:0 in extra time
UPSET Stuttgart - Paderborn 2:2
 Stuttgart won 1:0 in extra time

It was the Third Round (quarter-finals) of the Scottish League Cup, followed almost inevitably by the Second Round draw. How difficult can it be to draw the semis? If you're Alex Fergusson, presiding officer at the Scottish Parliament, it's impossible. Mr. Fergusson couldn't tell the difference between ball 2 and ball 3, and the Scottish League had to revise the draw. Genius.

League Division I

ANL  1238   87.5   30   0.34
MUN  1222   88.6   58   0.65
CHE  1215   88.2   55   0.62
BLK  1142   88.9   68   0.76
LIV  1118   85.8  -35  -0.41
POR  1056   89.0   14   0.16
MCY  1014   88.1   27   0.31
EVE  1001   88.8  -25  -0.28
AVL   995   91.4    2   0.02
WHM   986   89.9    1   0.01
NWC   980   89.0    2   0.02
TOT   957   85.3  -45  -0.53
REA   942   89.7   15   0.17
FUL   884   89.4  - 9  -0.10
BOL   880   87.3  - 2  -0.02
BIR   858   91.4  - 9  -0.10
MID   854   90.6  -41  -0.45
SUN   846   92.5  -33  -0.36
WIG   798   92.3  -45  -0.49
DER   781   91.8  -14  -0.15

Changes are against standings on 28 September. Blackburn may have left the UEFA Cup, but that was against a side that hadn't been admitted to the rankings; their strong domestic form puts them fourth. Liverpool Stadiennes have been suffering from their inability to win games in Europe, even against very moderate opposition. Manchester City continues its strong start, but Tottenham's slide continues. At the bottom, Derby looked doomed last month, and Wigan may well have joined them.

1. Bundesliga

BAY  1206   89.9   31   0.34
HAM  1109   87.8   44   0.50
WER  1098   84.3   29   0.34
SNV  1068   83.6  -31  -0.37
BYL  1018   86.8  -63  -0.73
HAN  1016   88.6   30   0.34
KRR  1010  104.0    8   0.08
WLF   997   88.7   83   0.94
STT   990   85.5  -50  -0.58
BDO   980   90.1   48   0.53
NUR   921   86.3    1   0.01
EIN   907   88.7  -13  -0.15
BIE   904   92.0  -25  -0.27
HRS   895  112.7   67   0.59
BOC   865   89.4  -88  -0.98
HER   845   91.7  -93  -1.01
COT   816   91.3  -16  -0.18
DUI   788  109.9  -15  -0.14

MAI (II)   954   121.8    0   0.00
AAA (II)   879   114.0  - 1  -0.01
BMO (II)   839   115.2   31   0.27

Again, changes are from 28 September. Bayern are unbeaten in all competitions this year, a phenomenon that makes it difficult for us to work out just how strong they really are. Stuttgart's title defence appears to be over, they've lost a lot of ground already. Karlsruhr started well, but has rather fallen away this month; Hansa Rostock has pushed its way up well. Wolfsburg is challenging for European action; Bochum and Hertha Berlin may be scrapping for the final relegation place.

Next week's televised matches

Fr 1930 Set1/DE Energie Cottbus -v- Schalke 04
Sa 1230 Set1/SC Kilmarnock -v- Celtic
Sa 1715 Set1/E1 Blackburn -v- Liverpool Stadiennes
Sa 2130 Set2/** Copa Sudamericana (highlights)
Sa 2200 Set2/DE Bayern Munich -v- Eintracht Frankfurt (tape)
Su 1330 Set2/NL Ajax -v- Roda
Su 1400   C5/IT   Match tbc
Su 1400 Set1/SC Hibernian -v- Hearts
Su 1700 Set1/FR Toulouse -v- Metz
Su 1930 Set1/E5 Farsley Celtic -v- York City
Su 2000 Set2/FR Lens -v- St Etienne
Su 2200 Set2/DE Karlsrhur -v- Duisburg (tape)
Mo 1745 Rang/SC Rangers -v- Inverness CT (tape)
Mo 2000 Set1/E1 Manchester City -v- Sunderland
Tu 1945  ITV/EL Liverpool Stadiennes -v- Besiktas
Tu 1945  STV/EL Celtic -v- Benfica
Tu 1945 ITV4/EL Schalke 04 -v- CSKA Kensington
Th 0000 Set2/** Copa Sudamericana - two live matches tbc
Th 1600   C5/UC Hapoel Tel Aviv -v- Tottenham Nil
Th 1800   C5/UC Bayern Munich -v- Blackburn
Th 2005   C5/UC Nurnburg -v- Everton
Th 2005 BBC1/UC Aberdeen -v- Lokomotiv Moscow
  Scotland; red button elsewhere.

linkpage | EuropeanTables |

Regular correspondent Mr. Pokery wrote the following after last Sunday's NCAA wrap.

Your data tends to support the strength of the SEC, with eight teams currently headed for, at worst, half-decent bowls. (If anything, you tend to do so less strongly than other pundits, with the SEC returning seven teams in some top 25s on more than one occasion this season, which is apparently remarkably high.)

Readers will know our position on human polls: they are a valid measure of which sides are popular and fashionable, but are of little value to determine which sides are actually best. We would also point out that a lot of the big sides have yet to play each other, and their +6-2 records mostly come from beating up the small sides. This factor will disappear as the season unwinds.

I enjoy comparing your standings with the different polls used in the BCS standings. My gut feeling, without having formally performed comparisons, is that your poll has most in sympathy with the RB computer rankings, whatever they are.

One of the things we did for our own interest late last year was to work out the average difference between Glickoblog rankings and each of the computer rankings used for the BCS. And, indeed, the average difference between each of those rankings. RB is Billingsley, by the way...

(goes off and bumps into Spearman's Rank Correlation).

Two figures for each of the BCS components: the ρ of how much we agree with their complete list, and of how much we agree with their top 25.

Andersen     0.9374   0.4582
Billingsley  0.9640   0.8246
Colley       0.9284   0.5693
Massey       0.9236   0.5040
Sagarin      0.9046   0.4873
Wolfe        0.9229   0.4152

For the latter comparison, we disregard teams that each ranking puts outside its top 25, and all the sides that Glickoblog ranks outside the top 25 are deemed to be of rank 26. Original data from Massey

Yes, it appears that the Glickoblog rankings do correspond much more closely with Billingsley's than any other, including the Sagarin-ELO method, which one might naively expect to closely match. Why is this happening? Billingsley no longer publishes any detail of his algorithm, and the previously-posted description was long on waffle and short on detail. From the description, and observing the progress of Notre Dame (bottoming out in the 50s) we suspect that his formula is approximately replicating a Glicko system, albeit through a different method.

We'll return to this matter at the end of the regular season.

I'd love to see more analysis of just how crazy seasons' results are in comparison to each other, for reasonable-looking craziness metrics other than "number of #2 seeds upset".

At this point we tickle the soft underbelly of the Upset-o-meter, and ask it to fetch some wrapped sweets. Define your definition of upset - we propose 30 points as a minor upset, 35 as a moderate, 40 as a major - and simply count.

Another gut feeling of mine suggests that you may need to increase the number of idle weeks used in the re-rankings between the 2007 and 2008 seasons substantially even over the number used between 2006 and 2007.

We will see when the season ends: maybe reducing the spread to ±1.5σ will also help to produce more credible results. We should remember this: the Glicko system derives most of its data from the last dozen or so matches. At present, the pundits are basing their information on about seven data points per side, as if the previous years counted for nothing. We disagree here: many of the players and coaches remain in place, and successful sides in previous years are able to attract weaker opposition, and schedule more home matches than away ones. This disparity needs to be included, and we reckon the best way is to carry over some hard facts from last year. How much? Maybe less than we did this year, in turn less than we did last year.

A link I've been saving for you for some time, comparing the perceived advantages and disadvantages of computer and human rankings. Another gut feeling (for gut feelings are easy in a way that reasoned arguments are not) is that margins of victory *are* important, somehow, though I'm prepared to concede that this might just be a prejudice against throwing away even a single scrap of data... :-)

The trouble with imposing a margin-of-victory criterion is that it creates an artificial boundary condition, one that simply isn't present in the actual game as it's played on the field. Suppose that a side is leading 31:7 half-way through the third period. Which is the more valuable win: their opponent recovering to win 34:31, the side surviving a recovery to win 31:28, the sides continuing to score as they did, finishing 41:10, or the side extending their lead to win 63:10? Do we decide that games decided by more than two clear tries are worthy of bonus points, as the IRB does? Do we award partial credit for games decided by six or fewer points? Ultimately, margin of victory requires a value judgement: it insists that some wins are more valuable than others, yet there is no consensus on the value matrix to be used. Indeed, there cannot be such a consensus opinion.

We have considered splitting the points for games won in extra time (say 3/4 to the winner, 1/4 to the loser), for this does actually reflect the game as it's played on the field. Discarding margin of victory does reduce the amount of data, but we cannot actually see any value in using that particular datum, and suspect that it might actually be harmful to a sound ranking.

linkpage | NCAA |

Most Successful Religious Institution Of The Year

 #107 Temple 7  vs. Ohio 23

Though TEMPL's late surge for a post-season game looks to have come unstuck - this was the side's sixth defeat - they've still climbed an awfully long way in a few weeks. And accumulated more wins than the Parisian cathedral.

Margin of Victory Watch

 Nebraska 39 vs. #16 Kansas 76
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31

In the Glicko ranking system, we deem all wins to be equal. As we discussed on Friday, there are arguments to consider margin of victory. In these two matches, the winning side scored roughly twice as many points as their opposition. Should a ranking system reward Kansas for scoring a point-and-a-quarter per minute? Reward Nebraska for scoring so many points? Penalise Kansas for conceding so many? Reward Kansas Province for pulling back to within respectability? Reward Iowa Province for hanging on in the teeth of fierce opposition? Reward Iowa for overcoming such difficult opposition? Discuss. Show your working.

Swiss System Watch

 #23 Clemson 47 vs. #112 Duke 10
 #110 Louisiana-Lafayette 7 vs. #22 Tennessee 59
 #97 Akron 20 vs. #96 Bowling Green 44

We still think that sides should adopt a Swiss scheme to schedule their matches: pick their opponents for the first four games, another one in the middle, the last match, and name their bye weeks, then use some clever algorithm to match sides at a similar level to play each other two weeks hence. It couldn't be less one-sided than this lot.

Who Have App State ^Wofford Elon Beaten This Week?

X- Elon 49 vs. Furman 52

Bring out the signwriters.

Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?

 #119 Fla. International 24 vs. Arkansas St. 27

The worst team in the current Glickoblog rankings almost pulled off the upset of the century, keeping Arkansas Purchase to within three points. Carry on like this and they might actually finish at +1-11.

Utterly Rubbish Team Almost Wins Game!

 Navy 46 vs. Notre Dame 44

Stale magazine published some numbers this week. Apparently, NOTDM has the worst ground attack in the league. If it were twice as good, it would still only be 117th best. Still, being sunk by only two points almost counts as an improvement; being the only thing the Navy's sunk this year might not.

Last Week's Top Ten

 #14 Wisconsin 17 vs. #1 Ohio St. 38
 #2 LSU 41 vs. #35 Alabama 34
41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
 #4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
 #31 Texas A&M 14 vs. #5 Oklahoma 42
      #6 Virginia West - no match
 #26 Oregon St. 3 vs. #7 Southern Cal 24
 #8 Arizona St. 23 vs. #9 Oregon 35
 #10 Texas 38 vs. Oklahoma St. 35

All eyes were on Oregon for the match of the day, and Arizona Province came away with their first defeat of the season. Ohio Province won the big early match, downing Wisconsin without breaking sweat, but LSU had a tricky task against Alabama. Upset of the day came as BOSCL also lost their unbeaten record, going down to the maddeningly inconsistent FLAST; this game was played in the teeth of hurricane Noel, allowing FLAST to wear their dazzling shirts. Michigan nearly suffered their third humiliation of the season, leaving it late to beat the Provincial side. Texas also found the going tough against Oklahoma Territory, though the A and M department was no match for Oklahoma. SCALF won, restoring normal service.

Other Top 40 Matches

 #12 Virginia Tech 27  vs. #30 Georgia Tech 3
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17
 #24 Purdue 19 vs. #21 Penn St. 26

The Upset-o-meter

41- Florida St. 27 vs. #3 Boston College 17
38- #29 UCLA 27 vs. Arizona 34
38- Wyoming 24 vs. San Diego St. 27
35- N.C. State 19 vs. Miami 16
34- Kansas St. 20 vs. Iowa St. 31
33- UTEP 48 vs. #100 Rice 56
31- #19 Wake Forest 16 vs. #37 Virginia 17

Three more matches to add to the pile of 35-point upsets; UCLA's defeat sends them spinning out of the top 40.

Provincial Championships

 #4 Michigan 28 vs. Michigan St. 24
X- S. Illinois 10 vs. W. Illinois 9
 Army 10 vs. Air Force 30

Matches That We'll Explain Shortly

 #99 Buffalo 28 vs. #95 Miami (Ohio) 31
 #50 New Mexico 0 vs. #48 TCU 37

TCU's win gives them a stronger position to win the Mountain-West title.

Top 30

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
 2    1    1   OHIST   BX   1434   116.8   0   Ohio Province
 4    2    2   LSU     SE   1376   112.3   0   Louisiana Territory
 9    5    3   OKLAH   BT   1326   109.1   0   Oklahoma
12    4    4   MICH    BX   1320   110.1   0   Michigan
 1    7    5   SCALF   PX   1306   115.1   0   Southern California
32    9    6   OREGN   PX   1299   103.3   0   Oregon
10    6    7   WVIRG   BE   1295   119.9   1   W Virginia
19    3    8   BOSCL   AC   1281   112.8   0   Boston College
 5   10    9   TEXAS   BT   1278   110.2   0   Texas
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1268   105.9   0   Michigan 2
11   12   10   VTECH   AC   1261   111.3   0   Virginia Tech
 3   13   11   FLORD   SE   1246   109.8   0   Florida
13   11   12   BSEST   WA*  1244   104.3   0   Boise State
36    8   13   ARZST   PX   1242   102.6   0   Arizona Province
53   16   14   KANSS   BT   1230   105.5   0   Kansas
18   15   15   GRGIA   SE   1229   108.4   0   Georgia
38   18   16   MISRI   BT   1224   105.9   0   Missouri
 8   17   17   AUBRN   SE   1209   110.4   1   Auburn
 7   14   18   WISCO   BX   1204   110.0   0   Wisconsin
17   21   19   PENST   BX   1203   103.6   0   Penn Province
15   20   20   CALIF   PX   1193   105.8   0   California
30   22   21   TENSE   SE   1176   102.8   0   Tennessee
34   23   22   CLEMS   AC   1166   107.4   0   Clemson
23   19   23   WAKEF   AC   1162   102.8   0   Wake Forest
21   25   24   BYU     MW*  1161   110.8   0   Brigham Young
39   27   25   HAWII   WA*  1149   124.9   1   Hawaii
54   28   26   KNTCY   SE   1147   110.2   1   Kentucky
56   37   27   VIRGI   AC   1142    99.4   0   Virginia
27   26   28   ORGST   PX   1134   103.1   0   Oregon Territory
45   24   29   PRDUE   BX   1134    99.7   0   Purdue
24   36   30   TXSTC   BT   1131   105.1   0   Texas Tech

The top spot looks set to be decided, albeit indirectly, by the match between Ohio Province and Michigan two weeks hence. A win for Ohio should confirm them as number 1, and invite the championship match against LSU or Oklahoma. Lose, and the cat enters the flock of pigeons. Lower down, we find Boise State looming outside the top ten: we'll discuss the WAC in a moment.

The See You Jimmy Division

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
66   52   50   ECARL   CU   1057   106.1   0   E Carolina
55   57   56   HOUST   CU   1025   102.5   1   Houston
59   61   58   TULSA   CU   1022   106.1   0   Tulsa
96   71   63   UCF     CU   1006   103.6   0   Central Florida
58   75   78   SMISS   CU    933   106.2   0   S Mississippi
85   78   84   UTEP    CU    878   104.3   0   Texas El Paso
72   100  92   RICE    CU    840   106.4   0   Rice
103  98   99   MEMPH   CU    798   104.7   0   Memphis
92   104  104  MARSL   CU    764   110.2   0   Marshall
79   109  108  SMU     CU    747   105.2   1   Southern Methodist
104  111  113  UAB     CU    716   109.2   0   Alabama, Birmingham
102  115  116  TULNE   CU    684   108.4   0   Tulane

ECARL leads UCF by a half-game in the Eastern subdivision, and has the head-to-head win. SMISS is a further half-game back, they beat ECARL in week 2. HOUST holds a half-game lead over TULSA in the West; they play SMU to-night and TULSA next week-end.

The Mid-Amorican

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
57   58   59   CMICH   MA   1021   102.7   1   Central Michigan
91   81   85   BALLS   MA    876   102.2   0   Ball State
88   86   86   TOLED   MA    872   100.8   0   Toledo
78   89   87   OHIO    MA    860    99.5   0   Ohio U
107  96   90   BOWLG   MA    848   106.6   0   Bowling Green
112  95   91   MIOHO   MA    846    98.7   0   Miami-Ohio
71   94   95   WMICH   MA    821   103.8   1   West Michigan
97   97   100  AKRON   MA    784   102.2   0   Akron
118  99   102  BUFFL   MA    780   104.6   0   Buffalo
106  106  103  KENTS   MA    768   109.1   1   Kent State
117  107  109  TEMPL   MA    737   111.7   0   Temple
77   114  112  NILNS   MA    720   107.4   1   N Illinois
115  113  114  EMICH   MA    707   105.2   0   East Michigan

MIOHO is the unexpected leader of the East division, taking that place after beating BUFFL last night. BOWLG is a further game back, but Miami took the win when they met last month. CMICH is a game and a half clear in the West division, and finishes off with doozy matches against WMICH and EMICH.

The Western Athletic

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
13   11   12   BSEST   WA   1244   104.3   0   Boise State
39   27   25   HAWII   WA   1149   124.9   1   Hawaii
76   66   65   FRSST   WA   1000   109.4   0   Fresno State
47   72   74   NEVDA   WA    973   107.2   0   Nevada
69   84   88   SNJST   WA    854   107.5   0   San Jose State
100  102  96   LSATC   WA    807   109.6   0   Louisiana Tech
113  103  105  NMXST   WA    762   116.4   0   New Mexico Territory
109  117  117  IDAHO   WA    616   111.1   0   Idaho
114  118  118  UTHST   WA    593   115.5   0   Utah Territory

Boise and Hawaii have yet to lose: their match on 23 November will decide the title, and may result in a top 10 finish for Boise. Hawaii is playing a strange pattern of games, with just one match between 12 October and 10 November, then three in 13 days.

State of Independents

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R       RD   Idle
==================================================================
41   55   48   NAVY    XX   1063   106.5   0   Navy
14   53   62   NOTDM   XX   1010   102.2   0   Notre Dame
108  105  106  ARMY    XX    761   113.9   0   Army

Next week, we'll be re-capping all the divisional leaders, and detailing where battles remain.

Next week's televised games

Fr 0030 BE: #40 Louisville -v- #7 Virginia West
Fr 0500 MA: #87 Ohio -v- #100 Akron (tape)
Sa 0900 XX: #41 Rutgers -v- #106 Army (tape)
Sa 1700 BX: #4 Michigan -v- #18 Wisconsin
Sa 2030 SE: #17 Auburn -v- #15 Georgia
Su 0900 BX: #52 Illinois -v- #1 Ohio Province
Su 1200 BT: #14 Kansas -v- #46 Oklahoma Territory
We 1730 MA: #86 Toledo -v- #85 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #100 Akron -v- #91 Miamiohio (tape)

We are, one assumes, to take it that NASN actually stands for Now Akron's Sports Network.

linkpage | NCAA |

We'll start with the upsets

43 COTTBUS - Schalke 04 1:0
38 HEERENVEEN - PSV Eindhoven 2:1
37 Zaragoza - VALLADOLID 2:3
35 BOCHUM - Wolfsburg 5:3
35 CAEN - Le Mans 3:2
34 LEVANTE - Almeira 3:0
34 SEVILLA - Real Madrid 2:0
34 Watford - WESTBROMWICH 0:3
32 Stoke - COVENTRY 1:3
32 Rennes - MONACO 0:1
32 Plymouth - SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 1:2
31 Dunfermline - LIVINGSTON 0:4
31 QPR - Hull 2:0
30 Murcia - DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA 0:2
30 FULHAM - Reading 3:1
30 Auxerre - LILLE 0:1

19 EMPOLI - Roma 2:2
18 Bayern Munich - EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 0:0
15 NORWICH - Ipswich 2:2

What a time for Cottbus to claim its first victory of the year, defeating last year's runners-up in the match beamed around the world. Heerenveen also had a massive win, putting themselves firmly in the title race. Elsewhere, Bochum came out on top in an eight-goal thriller, Caen won only their second match of the season. The talking point in West Brom's win wasn't the scoreline against the leaders, but the style. Livingston and Norwich have both had torrid starts to the season, while Bayern's second 0:0 draw in the Bundesliga must have them worried.

Primera Division

BAR   1232   86.8  -11  -0.13
RMD   1213   83.9  -20  -0.24
VIL   1195   87.2  -12  -0.14
SEV   1150   80.4   24   0.30
AMD   1145   85.7    8   0.09
ESP   1128   86.6   41   0.47
VAL   1096   83.2  -82  -0.99
SAN   1086   87.8   21   0.24
ZAR   1061   86.3   29   0.34
MAL   1035   87.3   24   0.27
GET   1016   84.7   57   0.67
OSA   1012   87.8  - 8  -0.09
DEP    997   88.0   37   0.42
ABL    989   87.6   16   0.18
RMC    974  103.9  -29  -0.28
HEU    965   87.7  -78  -0.89
VDD    965  107.9   29   0.27
BET    943   89.0  -14  -0.16
ALM    938  104.9  -39  -0.37
LEV    878   92.1  -10  -0.11

MGA (II)   986   138.1   0   0.00
SOC (II)   957   122.7   0   0.00
TAR (II)   951   116.4   0   0.00
CVG (II)   930   115.3   0   0.00
CAD (II)   916   149.2   0   0.00
ALA (II)   903   128.9   0   0.00

Changes are from 1 October. As you were at the top, though defeats for the leading sides mean they're somewhat closer to the chasing pack. Valencia has fallen away enough to fire its manager; Getafe has had a good month. Nothing doing for the six sides in the Segunda, a strange quirk of the schedules.

Serie A

INT  1217   87.8   41   0.47
FIO  1170   91.6   21   0.23
ROM  1169   85.1    5   0.06
JVE  1153  107.8  -20  -0.19
ACM  1064   84.0  -32  -0.38
ATL  1005   87.6   21   0.24
UDI   995   89.6   39   0.44
PAL   980   86.5  -20  -0.23
GNA   974  107.4   15   0.14
NAP   970  105.2   39   0.37
LAZ   961   83.0  -56  -0.67
REG   942   89.7  -53  -0.59
SAM   933   88.9  -32  -0.36
CAT   913   90.2   26   0.29
PAR   912   87.5  -12  -0.14
TOR   908   89.5   53   0.59
EMP   881   91.8  -55  -0.60
SIE   877   89.6   35   0.39
CAG   856   87.6  -54  -0.62
LVO   833   90.3  - 8  -0.09

CHI (II)   977   112.9   48   0.43
MES (II)   789   115.6   19   0.16
ASC (II)   776   112.7  -62  -0.55

Changes are from 1 October. Inter Milan continues to power away, Juventus is settling down in a good position, but look at AC Milan continue to drop away. And note that there are just six sides above 1000 - while this is a bit unfortunate, as many of the third-quarter sides have been taking draws against second-quarter sides, it does show the lack of depth in the Italian league.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

The Football League has agreed to show some matches on the BBC from August 2009. The deal covers ten live matches in Division II each season, though not the play-offs, and semi-finals and finals of the League Cup. It's the first time that the League Cup final will have been televised since 2002. There will also be a weekly package of highlights from Divisions II, III, and IV.

Group A of Former Champions

Liverpool S  -  Besiktas    (EIGHT) 8:0
      Porto  -  Olympique Marseille 2:1

PTO 8 MAR 7 LIV 4 BES 3

Porto and Liverpool take their head-to-head wins: the latter comes after the biggest trouncing in European League history, and the third time this year an English side has put 7 (SEVEN) or more past decent opposition. Well, we say decent, but Besitkas was lucky to score 0. Liverpool's trip to Marseille on 11 December takes on new significance.

Group B of Not As Obvious As We Thoughtness

  Valencia  -  Rosenborg       0:2 (36)
Schalke 04  -  CSKA Kensington 0:0

CHE 8 ROS 7 SNV 4 VAL 3

Well, we said two weeks ago that Rosenborg were bringing their pixie dust into the contest. Looks like they may be bringing that little magic into the last 16. We can't see Valencia qualifying for the second round, though they play CSKA Kensington in the final round, and the London side should have qualified by then.

Group C of Dividends

     Lazio  -  Werder Bremen 2:1 (37)
Olympiakos  -  Real Madrid   0:0

RMD 8 LAZ 5 OLY 5 WER 3

It just feels like there have been a lot of draws in this group, and at least one surprise to come. Madrid will beat Olympiakos head-to-head, but Lazio and Werder have tied.

Group D of How Will Portugal Mess This One Up?

          Celtic  -  Benfica  1:0 (31)
Shakhtar Donetsk  -  AC Milan 0:3

ACM 9 SHA 6 CEL 6 BEN 3

By having their star striker sent off ten minutes from the end, that's how Portugal will mess this one up. Celtic host Shakhtar in the next round; barring unfortunate circumstances, a 3-goal win will put them through. AC has the wonning of Donetsk, Celtic and Benfica drew.

Group E of Death

Olympique Lyonnais  -  Stuttgart 4:2
         Barcelona  -  Rangers   2:0

BAR 10 RAN 7 LYN 6 STT 0

Stuttgart's loss means they're the first side to decide their fate, and they'll be staying at home next year to concentrate on the league. Barcelona has the advantage over Rangers, but the Scots can progress with a win against Lyon in December, or with a win in Stuttgart and Lyon losing to Barcelona. Two chances for Rangers to progress!

Group F of Tedium

Manchester Buccaneers  -  Dynamo Kyiv 4:0
      Sporting Lisbon  -  Roma        2:2

MUN 12 ROM 7 SLS 4 KYV 0

The Buccaneers become the first side into the round of 16. Roma beat Sporting Lisbon head-to-head, but we remember how the Bucs fell apart a few years ago when their progress was assured. On the other hand, Kyiv have done themselves no favours.

Group G of Acronyms

Internazionale  -  CSKA Moskow   4:2
    Fenerbahçe  -  PSV Eindhoven 2:0

INT 9 FEN 8 PSV 4 CSK 1

We're too bored to give any comment on this group.

Group H of Censored

Steaua Bucharest  -  Seville 0:2
   Slavia Prague  -  Arsenal 0:0 (15)

ANL 10 SEV 9 SLP 4 STE 0

Thanks to their 7 (SEVEN):0 win last time out, Arsenal beat Slavia on head-to-head, which means they're the second side through to the knockout phase. We believe that some of the remaining 14 places may actually be filled by sides from outside the UK!

UEFA Cup, Group Phase, Match 1

Group A of AZ
Nürnburg - Everton             0:2
  Larisa - Zenit St Petersburg 2:3
Idle: AZ Alkmaar

EVE 6 ZSP 4 AZA* 1 LAR 0 NUR* 0

Group B of Mutton
Køvehaben - Panathanaikos    0:1
 Aberdeen - Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1
Idle: Atlético Madrid

PAN 6 LOK 2 AMD* 1 ABD 1 COP* 0

Group C of Seeding
Mladá Boleslav - Villarreal  1:2
    Fiorentina - IF Elfsborg 6:1
Idle: AEK Athens

FIO 4 VIL 4 AEK* 1 ELF 1 BOL* 0

Group D of Dwarves
Dinamo Zagreb - Basle 0:0
       Rennes - Brann 1:1
Idle: Hamburg

BAS 4 HAM* 3 BRN 1 DZA* 1 REN 1

Here's a remarkable thing: Panathanaikos have already qualified for the next phase, and there are still three matchdays to go! Because every other match has ended in a draw, the Greek side cannot be overtaken by three sides. Everton should join them, and Hamburg's victory - albeit over Brann - is looking very valuable.

Group E of Goal Difference
Spartak Moscow - Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 (32)
      Toulouse - Sparta Prague    2:3 (33)
Idle: FC Zürich

BYL 3 PRG 3 SPM* 3 ZUR* 3 TOU 0

Group F of Bayern
Aris Thessaloniki - Crvena Zvedza 3:0
   Bayern München - Bolton        2:2 (19)
Idle: Braga

BAY 4 ASS* 3 BOL 2 BRG* 1 CRZ 0

Group G of Winners
     AaB Alborg - Anderlecht 1:1
Hapoel Tel Aviv - Tottenham  0:2
Idle: Getafe

TOT 3 AND 3 GET* 2 AAL* 1 HTA 0

Group H of Upsets
Austia Wien - Bordeaux     1:2
Galatasaray - Helsingborgs 2:3
Idle: Panionios

BDX 6 HEL 4 PIO* 1 AWI* 0 GAL 0

We told you group E was going to be tight: wouldn't entirely surprise us to find all five sides on 6 points. Bayern's troubles continue, now no wins in three matches against top-flight sides. Bordeaux hasn't quite done enough, and that's a magnificent win for Helsingborgs.

Next week's live football

Fr 1900 5USA/FC LA Crackdealers -v- Minnesota Airheads (highlights)
Fr 1930 Set1/DE Duisburg -v- Bochum
Fr 1930 Celt/EL Celtic -v- Benfica (tape)
Sa 1715 Set1/E1 Liverpool -v- Fulham
Sa 1830  S4C/WA Haverfordwest -v- Llanelli (highlight)
Sa 2015 Set1/DE Stuttgart -v- Bayern Munich (tape)
Sa 2300 BBC1/FA Match of the Day (highlights)
Su 1130 Set2/NL Feyenoord -v- Ajax
Su 1400   C5/IT  Match tbc
Su 1515 BBC1/FA Torquay -v- Yeovil
Su 2000 Set1/FR Lyon -v- Marseille
Su 2000 Set2/DE Wolfsburg -v- Bayer Leverkusen (tape)
Mo 1800 ESPT/AF African Champions' Cup Final (highlights)
Mo 2000 Set1/E1 Reading -v- Arsenal
We 1400 Set2/FR Bordeaux -v- Rennes (tape)

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

So what was wrong with Monday night? There was an NCAA-ball match on Sunday, one on Tuesday, one on Wednesday, a handful on Thursday and Friday, and the usual shedload on Saturday. But nothing on Monday.

TMQ points out that, as recently as 2005, there were regularly scheduled games amongst the non-BCS conferences in midweek. These have now been moved to Saturday, ostensibly as being one of 75 games on Saturday is more prestigious than being the only Tuesday Night NCAA-ball Game. The result: games involving obscure colleges in places no-one's ever been to, like EMICH, are tucked away on little-viewed channels. That's apart from every AKRON game, which gets international viewership on NASN...

Actually, the more prosaic reason is the expansion of the season to 12 games: the season remains 14 weeks long, and no-one wants to play Saturday - Tuesday, so each midweek game eats up one of just two bye weeks. The solution is simple: extend the season to a fifteenth week, a little deeper into December. But, oh, that's tinkering with tradition, and the NCAA-ball can't be doing with that. May the football gods smite whoever came up with that idea.

Smite of the Week

47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21

Well, that's set the wrapped toffees amongst the staff of Playpigeon magazine, and no mistake. OHIST loses its first game of the season, and its number 1 ranking. It also means that Michigan goes to the top of the standings in the Big Ten - the two season-opening defeats count for naught as they were against non-divisional opposition.

Smite of the Week (2)

33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37

Oh, heck. We'll go away and look at the rest of the results, and come back to the BX in the rest of the conferences...

The rest of Last Week's Top Ten

 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58
 Baylor 21 vs. #3 Oklahoma 52
 #5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
       #6 Oregon - no game
 #40 Louisville 31 vs. #7 West Virginia 38
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
 #30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
 #34 Florida St. 21 vs. #10 Virginia Tech 40

No surprise to find LSU running out winners against the local technical college. This was one of three matches to be as one-sided and obvious as a Manchester Buccaneers - Gretna game - the presumptive Bucs win would also have an upset-o-meter rating of 2. SCALF kept its charge alive with a victory over CALIF. Remember the days when LSVLE-WVIRG matches actually meant something? That's 2006 nostalgia for you. And remember when Boston College was a number 3 team? The side's now scrabbling for a place in the top 20, so save your nostalgia for I Remember Thursday Last Week, coming soon to an obscure station.

Other top-40 matches

 #17 Auburn 20 vs. #15 Georgia 45
 #33 Texas A&M 26 vs. #16 Missouri 40
 #37 Arkansas 13 vs. #21 Tennessee 34
 #23 Wake Forest 10  vs. #22 Clemson 44
 #38 TCU 22 vs. #24 BYU 27
 #32 Connecticut 3 vs. #31 Cincinnati 27

Everything going to form, even in the three matches between sides separated by a statistical quirk.

Sending the Upset-o-meter into Meltdown This Week

47- Illinois 28 vs. #1 Ohio St. 21
43- East Carolina 7 vs. #104 Marshall 26
39- #110 Louisiana-Lafayette 34 vs. Middle Tennessee 24
38- #8 Boston College 35 vs. Maryland 42
38- UTEP 19 vs. #116 Tulane 34
34- Colorado 28 vs. Iowa St. 31
34- Michigan St. 48 vs. #29 Purdue 31
33- #4 Michigan 21 vs. #18 Wisconsin 37
33- #36 Alabama 12 vs. Mississippi St. 17
31- Ohio 37  vs. #100 Akron 48

Two matches exceed the 40-point conservative estimate we made of App State's win, two whole Michigan losses ago. Ohio Province's loss is the biggest scalp for Illinois, which has previously featured here with victories over Indiana (35-point upset, week 4), Penn State (40-point, week 5), and Wisconsin (43-point, week 6). After that sequence, some commentators posited that the side belonged in the top 20. Maybe they do.

Provincial Championship Update

 Cent. Michigan 34  vs. W. Michigan 31
 North Carolina 27 vs. N.C. State 31
 #30 Texas Tech 43 vs. #9 Texas 59
 #5 Southern Cal 24 vs. #20 California 17
 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58

Notre Dame, and App. State's Beatpath

 Air Force 41 vs. Notre Dame 24
X- Elon 31 vs. The Citadel 42

Appalachian was beaten by Wofford, in turn beaten last week by Elon, now beaten by The Citadel. At this rate, Michigan's beatpath won't even go into the Division I-AA final tournament.

Hey! Big scorers!

X- W. Carolina 35 vs. Appalachian St. 79
X- Richmond 62 vs. Delaware 56
X- Illinois St. 24 vs. S. Illinois 34
 Kansas St. 31 vs. Nebraska 73
 Navy 74 vs. #115 North Texas 62

The 136-point aggregate in that final game is a record for top-flight play.

Not Tickling the Upset-o-meter

 3- #19 Penn St. 31 vs. Temple 0
 2- #12 Boise St. 52 vs. #118 Utah St. 0
 2- Louisiana Tech 10 vs. #2 LSU 58

We can certainly see why Boise needs to play Utah St: both are in the WACaday, which is a round-robin league. We can just about justify Louisiana Purchase's match against Louisiana Technical College, the clue's in the name. But there's no excuse for Penn Province to schedule a game against Temple, thus ending the latter's bowl aspirations.

Top 30

LY   LW   TW          Conf    R      RD   Idle
==================================================================
 4    2    1   LSU     SE   1379   112.1   0   Louisiana Purchase
 2    1    2   OHIST   BX   1370   115.2   0   Ohio Province
 9    3    3   OKLAH   BT   1331   108.3   0   Oklahoma
 1    5    4   SCALF   PX   1329   110.8   0   Southern California
10    7    5   WVIRG   BE   1314   116.4   0   W Virginia
32    6    6   OREGN   PX   1299   103.3   1   Oregon
 5    9    7   TEXAS   BT   1297   106.8   0   Texas
11   10    8   VTECH   AC   1281   107.7   0   Virginia Tech
12    4    9   MICH    BX   1280   106.5   0   Michigan
 3   11   10   FLORD   SE   1265   106.4   0   Florida
36   13   11   ARZST   PX   1259    99.9   0   Arizona Province
18   15   12   GRGIA   SE   1257   104.6   0   Georgia
53   14   13   KANSS   BT   1247   102.7   0   Kansas
13   12   14   BSEST   WA   1246   104.6   0   Boise State
38   16   15   MISRI   BT   1245   102.6   0   Missouri
 7   18   16   WISCO   BX   1244   106.4   0   Wisconsin
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1235   102.5   0   Michigan 2
19    8   17   BOSCL   AC   1232   109.6   0   Boston College
17   19   18   PENST   BX   1207   103.2   0   Penn Province
30   21   19   TENSE   SE   1198    99.8   0   Tennessee
34   22   20   CLEMS   AC   1195   103.7   0   Clemson
21   24   21   BYU     MW   1188   106.8   0   Brigham Young
 8   17   22   AUBRN   SE   1180   107.0   0   Auburn
15   20   23   CALIF   PX   1173   102.7   0   California
39   25   24   HAWII   WA   1173   120.2   0   Hawaii
54   26   25   KNTCY   SE   1165   107.6   0   Kentucky
56   27   26   VIRGI   AC   1162    96.8   0   Virginia
44   31   27   CINCI   BE   1159   105.3   0   Cincinnati
27   28   28   ORGST   PX   1151   100.5   0   Oregon Territory
23   23   29   WAKEF   AC   1135    99.7   0   Wake Forest
31   45   30   MARYL   AC   1129   104.7   0   Maryland

The entire top ten is within one RD of the leader, and must have a credible claim to the championship game; most of the top 25 is within two RD, and can seriously look at the top five bowls. Maryland's big win catapults them into the top 30, with Utah (up 11 to 33) and Illinois (up 14 to 38) also making big moves.

BCS divisions

AC CLEMS (20) takes over atop the Atlantic division, half a game clear of BOSCL (17; plays CLEMS next week) with WAKEF (29) one game off the lead; WAKEF lost head-to-heads against both rivals. The Coastal division is between VIRGI (26) and VTECH (8); the former has a half-game lead, and the sides meet on 24 Nov.

BE CONNC (40) suffered its first loss in divisional play this week, WVIRG (7) is half a game adrift, and CINCI (27) is a game off the pace. WVIRG plays CINCI and CONNC in the next two weeks, so all sides are masters of their own destiny.

BT KANSS (13) leads the North, a game clear of MISRI (15; sides meet 24 Nov). In the South, OKLAH (3) leads TEXAS (7) by half a game, and has the tie-break.

BX As you were at the top, with OHIST (2) and MICH (9) a game clear of ILLNS (38). OHIST and MICH end their seasons with next week's game, the winner has the title.

PX ARZST (11) still leads the division, half-a-game ahead of OREGN (6). Powerhouses SCALF (4) are just one win away from taking the division. OREGN has beaten both other contenders, SCALF and ARZST meet on 22 November.

SE GRGIA (12) heads the East subdivision, half-a-game ahead of TENSE (19) and FLORD (10). GRGIA lost to TENSE, who lost to FLORD, who lost to GRGIA; the latter's match against GEOTC on 24 November could decide the sub-division, with a win guaranteeing the title, and a loss sending us reaching for the rulebook. LSU (1) has the West sewn up, a game-and-a-half advantage - and head-to-head wins - over AUBRN (22) and ALABM (47).

Other divisions

CU UCF (60) tops the East, a half-game ahead of ECARL (63), but the Carolina side has the tie-break. A win for TULSA (51) over HOUST (64) leaves the two sides locked at the top of the West, clear of all opposition.

MA MIOHO (89) is the only Miami in bowl contention, leading the East by half-a-game from BUFFL (102) and BOWLG (86); Miami beat both contenders. CMICH (57) is two clear of BALLS (83) for the West.

MW BYU (21) takes a one-game lead over AIRFC (52), with UTAH (33) and NEWMX (50) a further half-game back.

SB TROY (62) leads FLATL (77) by one; the sides meet on 1 December.

WA HAWII (24) and BSEST (14) are perfect +6-0 in divisional play, with FRSST (69) a game and a half back. The leaders meet on 23 November; both have beaten Fresno. Indeed, +9-0 HAWII and +10-0 KANSS are the only two sides able to end the regular season without a defeat.

XX NAVY (48) the only side looking for bowls, +6-4 is not certain. ARMY (106) has 3 wins, NOTDM (68) just one.

Next week

We 1730 MA: #85 Toledo -v- #83 Ball State (tape)
Th 1730 MA: #96 Akron -v- #89 Miamiohio (tape)
Fr 1800 PX: #6 Oregon -v- #66 Arizona (tape)
Sa 0400 WA: #24 Hawaii -v- #71 Nevada
Sa 1700 BX: #2 Ohio Province -v- #9 Michigan
Sa 2000   Game tbc
Su 0900   Game tbc
Su 1200   Game tbc

Helpful, that.

linkpage | NCAA |

A Monday update, perhaps shedding more light on some matters from yesterday.

Handicapping the South East East

As things stand, GRGIA has two defeats, both against SE opponents. FLORD and TENSE have also lost two matches against SE sides, and a third match against other opposition. GRGIA has one game against an SE side and one out-of-division match, the other sides both have two division matches left. The three-way tie is indecisive: GRGIA beat FLORD beat TENSE beat GRGIA.

If everyone wins their remaining games, all three sides finish with two divisional losses, but GRGIA has lost only two games overall, the others have lost three, so wins. However, if FLORD loses one of its remaining games while the others win out, the tie-break becomes the head-to-head match between TENSE-GRGIA, which goes to TENSE. TENSE loses a game? GRGIA has the tie-break on FLORD. And if GRGIA and TENSE both lose to divisional opposition, FLORD wins.

Still with us? (Re-reads previous paragraph) We're not! The practical upshot is that no one side has the SEE championship in their sole control: GRGIA's potential win requires TENSE and FLORD to win out, or both to lose a game; TENSE's win requires FLORD or GRGIA to lose a game, and FLORD requires (at least) a defeat for GRGIA, preferably in the divisional match.

And all of this is merely to determine the opponent for LSU in the SE final. The mind boggles.

Handicapping the play-offs (1)

For the BCS championship game, we can begin to posit scenarios.

LSU needs to beat two clearly inferior sides in its remaining regular-season games, plus whichever side wins the SEE. This should suffice to put LSU into the top two.

OHIST absolutely must beat MICH in the BX title decider next week to stand any chance of making the top two.

If OKLAH can win out its season, including the BT title game against KANSS, it would have a strong claim to make the national final. Given the fact that OHIST has one game left against quality opposition, and OKLAH has three, it's likely that OKLAH would take second place if it and OHIST win out.

Of the sides on the cusp: SCALF needs to win out its remaining games, including ARZST, to enter into contention. We can't see the side qualifying unless it wins its division, and that would require a defeat for OREGN. OREGN, meanwhile, needs to win out, and probably needs one of the sides above to slip up.

We can't yet rule out WVIRG, though that really requires defeats for OHIST, OKLAH in its title game (or not to make the title), and the PX to end in a mess of upsets. TEXAS perhaps has a better shot: OKLAH to lose one of its regular games, TEXAS to win the championship, hope for other results to go their way. VTECH needs to win out, and hope for a miracle.

MICH, FLORD, ARZST, GRGIA, KANSS, MINNS - we wouldn't begruge any of them places in the final ten, but the only realistic chance of any making the final is the SE sides knocking off LSU, coupled with a messy end to the PX and BT seasons, and generally being preferred to MICH. Of the interlopers, the winner of BSEST-HAWII has a strong claim to inclusion: BSEST is currently ranked 11th after excluding multiple entrants, and HAWII would have gone through the season undefeated.

Barring lower-ranked winners of the BE and AC, we cannot see any side outside the current top 15 challenging for the end-of-season top 10.

Handicapping the play-offs (2)

At the moment, we project LSU -v- OKLAH for the BCS championship, assuming both are divisional champs. Barring upsets, the other spots look to be:

PX: OREGN plus winner of ARZST-SCALF.
BE: net winner of WVIRG or CONNC or CINCI.
AC: one from VTECH, CLEMS, BOSCL, VIRGI.
BX: MICH or OHIST.
SEE: GRGIA or TENSE or FLORD.
BT2: KANSS or MISRI or TEXAS.

We can't see the PX failing to put two sides into the top ten, barring a complete meltdown. BE is going to be champions only, and AC is unlikely to put two sides in, though VTECH losing the championship game by a sneeze would not be fatal. MICH secures a spot if they win next week but is certainly eliminated if they lose; a defeat for OHIST puts them into the scramble for the open places. We suspect that two defeats on the bounce will count heavily against them, but it's not quite fatal.

Even assuming LSU wins the championship, the runners-up in the SE should get a spot; more likely if it's anyone but FLORD, and TENSE would have the advantage of not being in the BCS games lately. BT's presumptive runners-up to OKLAH also have a good claim, particularly if they're a one-loss KANSS; it's almost impossible for Texas to gain a BCS game unless it wins the entire division. A defeat for LSU in the SE divisional playoff will surely see them cascade into one of the other bowls; a loss for OKLAH may see them excluded entirely. Neither the BT nor the SE can be certain of two entrants, but the omens are useful.

Tenth spot we're provisionally reserving for the winner of BSEST - HAWII. HAWII looks the more likely, given the way these humans rely on small numbers in the L column. Defeated OHIST and VTECH only really come into the mix if one of the other conferences ends up in an ugly mess.

linkpage | NCAA |

Three matches were cancelled in Serie A after the fatal shooting of a Lazio fan. Next week's programme in Serie B and the Series C has been cancelled, and the sports minister has called for a pause of some weeks.

It was announced that internet fund myfootballclub has agreed to take over Gravesend and Northfleet. The club, which plays in Division V, changed its name just last summer after securing a large sponsorship deal from Eurostar. The internet hopefuls expect to take over control of the club, stacking the boardroom with their members, and even selecting the team on behalf of the manager.

FA Cup, Round 8

Selected results from the FA Cup, Round 8

02 Hampton & Richmond - Dagenham & Richmond 0:3
03 Torquay - Yeovil 4:1
09 Forest Green - Rotherham 2:2
11 Team Bath - Chasetown 0:2
14 Hereford - Leeds 0:0
16 Gainsborough Trinity - Hartlepool 0:6 (SIX)
17 Exeter - Stevenage 4:0
20 Halifax - Burton Albion 0:4
22 Harrogate Railway - Droylsden 2:0
23 Rushden & Diamonds - Macclesfield 3:1
25 Walsall - Shrewsbury 2:0
27 Altrincham - Millwall 1:2
29 Stockport County - Staines Town 1:1
33 Notts County - Histon 3:0
37 Eastbourne - Weymouth 0:4
38 Chesterfield - Tranmere 1:2
39 Wycombe Wanderers - Swindon 1:2
40 Luton - Brentford 1:1

The draw for the next round has already been made. Highlights include

01 Oxford - Southend
02 Swindon - Forest Green / Rotherham
05 Cambridge Utd - Weymouth
09 Torquay - Cheltenham / Brighton
11 Dagenham & Redbridge - Kidderminster
12 Port Vale - Chasetown
15 Burton Albion - Barnet
18 Horsham - Swansea
19 Hereford / Leeds - Hartlepool
20 Harrogate Railway - Mansfield

Matches to be played on 30 November, 1 and 2 December. One match will be shown live on BBC-1.

Upsets this week-end

41  Lyon - MARSEILLE  1:2
41  GETAFE - Barcelona  2:0
40  HERTHA BERLIN - Hannover 1:0
39  STUTTGART - Bayern Munich  3:1
39  Fiorentina - UDINESE  1:2
36  SPORTING BRAGA - Sporting Lisbon  3:0
35  BETIS - Zaragoza  2:1
34  HEARTS - Aberdeen 4:1
32  BLACKPOOL - Scunthorpe United  1:0
30  Leicester City - BURNLEY  0:1
30  REGGINA - Genoa  2:0
30  SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY - Southampton  5:0

15  PARMA - Juventus  2:2

Lyon suffers another defeat, and Marseille continues to win the matches that we reckon they'll lose, and lose the ones they should win. Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Sporting Lisbon also go into the international break on the back of a loss. Hertha's win is their first since August, and Udinese's only the second win of the season so far.

The Rest of Europe

Austria
GRA   800   134.4   GRAZER
AWI   793   116.8   AUSTRIA VIENNA
RAP   738   115.5   RAPID VIENNA

Belgium
AND   914   109.3   ANDERLECHT
LIE   843   124.5   LIEGE
BRU   826   129.6   BRUGGE
WRG   752   103.6   WAREGEM
BEV   513   175.8   BEVEREN (II)

Bulgaria
CSS   933   134.1   CSKA SOFIA
LSF   847   119.0   LEVSKI SOFIA
LIT   728   134.1   LITEKS LOVECH

Switzerland
BAS  1012   124.7   BASEL
ZUR   911   166.6   ZURICH
GRZ   797   128.3   GRASSHOPPERS ZURICH
THU   690   134.9   THUN

Czechia
SLP  1020   109.1   SLAVIA PRAGUE
LIB   860   128.2   SLOVAN LIBEREC
PRG   847   103.7   SPARTA PRAGUE
BLV   844   123.0   MLADA BOLESLAV
TEP   804   138.4   TEPLICE

Denmark
COP   919   109.4   COPENHAGEN
ODE   910   120.6   ODENSE
AAL   896   161.4   AALBORG
BRO   835   137.7   BRONDBY

Greece
PAN  1106   113.9   PANATHANAIKOS
OLY  1071   109.5   OLYMPIAKOS
ASS   946   123.4   ARIS SALONIKA
AEK   901   115.3   AEK ATHENS
PIO   815   118.0   PANIONIOS
PAO   771   131.4   PAOK SALONIKA
LAR   665   139.2   LARISSA
AIG   535   163.2   AIGAELIO (II)

Croatia
DZA   822   168.4   DYNAMO ZAGREB

Israel
MPT   948   152.2   MACCABI PETAH-TIKVA
MHA   871   146.3   MACCABI HAIFA
HTA   725   132.6   HAPOEL TEL-AVIV

Netherlands
AJX  1069   103.2   AJAX
AZA  1009   111.3   AZ ALKMAAR
PSV  1005   101.8   PSV EINDHOVEN
FEY   994   118.5   FEYENOORD
HEE   916   115.8   HEERENVEEN
UTR   801   131.6   UTRECHT

Norway
ROS  1019   125.4   ROSENBORG
TRO   859   143.5   TROMSO
BRN   838   144.7   BRANN BERGEN
VIK   744   141.7   VIKING STAVANGER
VRG   679   135.3   VALARENGEN

Poland
WIS   832   195.9   WISLA KRAKOW

Portugal
PTO  1129   110.4   PORTO
SLS  1001   101.8   SPORTING LISBON
BEN   989   101.9   BENFICA
BRG   923   118.4   BRAGA
GUI   889   151.8   GUIMARES (II)

Romania
RBU  1030   134.4   RAPID BUCHAREST
DIB   920   131.8   DINAMO BUCHAREST
STE   820   127.6   STEAUA BUCHAREST

Serbia
CRV   821   129.6   RED STAR BELGRADE
PBG   710   152.5   PARTISAN BELGRADE

Russia
LOK  1067   118.3   LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW
SPM   979   110.5   SPARTAK MOSCOW
CSK   953   110.8   CSKA MOSCOW
ZSP   947   111.7   ZENIT ST PETERSBURG

Sweden
HEL   962   152.9   HELSINGBORG
ELF   832   161.4   ELFSBORG
HAL   647   173.1   HALMSTADS

Slovakia
ART   682   165.1   ARTMEDIA BRATISLAVA

Turkey
FEN  1136   103.0   FENERBACHE
BES   968   105.9   BESTIKTAS
GAL   912   124.3   GALATASARAY
GEN   718   141.3   GENCENBIRGILI

Ukraine
SHA   982   105.5   SHAKTAR DONETSK
KYV   958   113.9   DINAMO KYIV
DNI   927   133.2   DNIPRO

The Top 22 will follow later in the week.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Michel Platini has withdrawn his proposal to allow cup winners to enter into the European League. Instead, the top 12 countries will send 16 sides into a repechage tournament for four places. The proposed access list is:

1-3: 3 direct + 1 to QR2
4-6: 2 direct + 1 to QR2
7-12: 1 direct + 2 to QR2

Entrants to QR2 play two rounds amongst themselves for four places in the main draw.

13-20: Champions to QR2
21-52: Champions to QR1

These champions would play three rounds for six places in the main draw. If the previous season's champion was already qualified, winner 13 gains automatic qualification, and 21 and 22 advance to QR2.

Losers in QR2 cascade to QR3 of the UEFA Cup; losers in QR3 go to the UEFA Cup group phase; losers in QR1 are out. The cut-off for four places in the UEFA Cup remains the 26th country.

Europe's Top XXII

Maximum RD: 115. (This excludes Panathanaikos, whose (1106, 115.2) would rank them 21st.) Changes are against 11 October

01 +5 MUN   1245   85.6
02 +1 ANL   1232   84.8
03 +1 INT   1225   87
04 +4 VIL   1219   85.3
05 -3 RMD   1216   82.1
06 -5 BAR   1210   85.1
07 -- CHE   1200   85.9
08 +2 ROM   1162   84
09 -4 BAY   1145   87.4
10 +1 FIO   1144   89.7
11 +7 LYN   1141   81
12 +4 ESP   1141   86
13 +4 SEV   1140   79.4
14 -1 LIV   1140   82.7
15 +6 FEN   1136  104.5
16 -2 AMD   1135   85.7
17 -8 JVE   1135  106.1
18 -3 PTO   1129  111.8
19 +1 BLK   1125   86.4
20 ne HAM   1113   87.1
21 ne WER   1096   81.5
22 ne SAN   1096   85.8

Out go Valencia (12-23), Schalke (19-30), Shakhtar Donetsk (22-61).

Top Five Averages

A simple average of each country's top five clubs

England 1188 (+24)
Spain   1185 ( nc)
Italy   1150 (+ 3)
Germany 1086 (-16)
France  1056 (+ 2)

Greece, Netherlands, Portugal are yet to have five listed sides: all should be included next month.

It is a trivially provable fact that matches within a division will tend to be zero-sum over a reasonably extended period of time. It is reasonable to assume that, as a poor team dips out of the top 5, its rating points will transfer to another side of broadly equivalent strength. The changes we see here should, therefore, reflect the net flows in European football. This time, we see that England has gained, Germany has lost.

The Monte Carlo model

01 +1 Arsenal Libels 02 -1 Barcelona 03 +6 Villarreal 04 -- Real Madrid 05 +1 Inter Milan 06 +6 CSKA Kensington 07 -- Manchester Buccaneers 08 -3 Juventus 09 +1 Espanyol 10 +7 Fenebaçhe 11 NE Atlético Madrid 12 +1 Roma 13 -10Bayern München 14 -6 Fiorentina 15 NE Olympiakos 16 NE Sevilla 17 -6 Porto 18 +2 Blackburn 19 -1 Liverpool Stadiennes 20 NE Santander 21 NE Hamburg 22 NE Lyon

Next week's live games

Final two rounds of qualifying for the European Nation's Cup: by the time we meet on Thursday, we will have all 14 qualifiers.

Fr 2230 BBC3/** Austria -v- England (highlights)
Sa 1200 Set1/E5 Kidderminster -v- Woking
Sa 1730  S4C/NC Cymru -v- Gweriniaeth Iwerddon
Sa 2000 BBCi/NC Northern Ireland -v- Denmark
  BBC2 NI and Red Button.
Sa 2220 BBC1/NC Match of the Day
  Highlights of Scotland, N Ireland, Wales
Su 0900 ESPT/NC Highlights
Su 1245 ESPT/NC Norway -v- Turkey (highlights)
Su 1345 ESPT/NC Netherlands -v- Luxembourg (highlights)
Tu 0500   C5/ML Major League Sochere: The Final (highlights)
We 1930 BBCi/NC Germany -v- Wales
  BBC2 Wales and Red Button.
We 2000 BBC1/NC England -v- Croatia
We 2230 ESPT/NC Highlights
Th 0900 ESPT/NC Cyprus -v- Czechia (highlights)
Th 1000 ESP2/** Senegal -v- Morocco (highlights)
Th 1145 ESPT/NC Denmark -v- Iceland (highlights)
Th 1230 ESPT/NC Belarus -v- Netherlands (highlights)
Th 1315 ESP2/NC Sweden -v- Latvia (highlights)
Th 1330 ESPT/NC Ukraine -v- France (highlights)
Th 1430 ESPT/NC Serbia -v- Poland (highlights)
Th 2000 Set1/E5 Aldershot -v- Grays

And don't forget, we've already gone through the permutations for who NEEDS what this week-end.

linkpage | European |

The long haul is nearly over: this was the penultimate round of matches for Euro 2008 qualification. Germany, Czechia, Romania, and defending champions Greece had already booked their places in Austria-Switzerland next summer: who will join them?

International: EURO qualification grp. A
 Finland  -  Azerbaijan  2:1
  Poland  -  Belgium     2:0
  Serbia  -  Kazakhstan  P:P
Portugal  -  Armenia     1:0

PL 27 PT 26 FI 23 RS* 20 BE 15 AM 15 KZ* 7 AZ 5

Finland kept themselves in the race with a win over Azerbaijan. Poland clinched qualification with a victory over Belgium, and Portugal's win means that Finland must win in Lisbon on Wednesday to have a hope of qualifying. Serbia's match was postponed following torrential rain just before kick-off: they'll play it on Sunday afternoon.

POLAND has qualified.
Portugal NEEDS at least a draw against Finland.
Finland NEEDS to win in Portugal, and Serbia to drop a point in its remaining games.
Serbia NEEDS to beat Kazakhstan and Poland, and for Finland to beat Portugal.

International: EURO qualification grp. B
  Scotland  -  Italy    1:2
 Lithuania  -  Ukraine  2:0

IT 26 FR 25 SC+ 24 UA 16 LT 13 GA 10 FO 0

An unsatisfactory end to the qualification process, as a pisspoor refereeing decision allowed the Italians to score from a free-kick in second-half injury time. That said, Scotland shouldn't have lost to Georgia last month. In the other match, Lithuania pick up a useful win against an already-eliminated Ukraine.

ITALY and FRANCE have qualified.

International: EURO qualification grp. C
 Moldova  -  Hungary  3:0
  Norway  -  Turkey   1:2
  Greece  -  Malta    5:0

GR 28 TR 21 NO 20 BH 13 MV+ 12 HU 12 MT 5

All eyes were on Oslo, where a Norwegian win would have sent the home side through. Turkey kept her hopes alive, and must go into Wednesday's matches as the favourite.

GREECE has qualified.
Turkey NEEDS to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina, or hope for Norway to slip up.
Norway NEEDS to beat Malta, and hope Bosnia can get a draw against Turkey.

International: EURO qualification grp. D
  Wales  -  Ireland   2:2
Germany  -  Cyprus    4:0
Czechia  -  Slovakia  3:1

CZ 26 DE 26 IE+ 17 WA 14 CY 14 SK 13 SM 0

Not much happening in this group: a last-minute winner for Wales as exciting as it gets.

GERMANY and CZECHIA have qualified.

International: EURO qualification grp. E
  Andorra  -  Estonia  0:2
Macedonia  -  Croatia  2:0

HR 20 RU 20 EN 19 MK+ 10 EE+ 7 AD 0

Macedonia sets the cat amongst the pigeons, denying Croatia a secure passage. The effects of Israel's exclusion on the group can be seen: had the friendly matches counted for anything, Croatia and England would be able to guarantee passage with a draw. As it is, their match at Wembley Building Site on Wednesday is a winner-takes-all affair; with Russia playing Andorra, a draw will not suffice for England.

Croatia NEEDS a draw in England.
Russia NEEDS a draw in Andorra. Or for Croatia to beat England, but if they're relying on that, they don't deserve to go through.
England NEEDS to beat Croatia. Or secure a draw while Russia are beaten by Andorra, and if they're relying on that, we may as well send the Pyreneean side to the finals, where they would start as favourites against Austria.

International: EURO qualification grp. F
   Latvia  -  Liechtenstein  4:1
N.Ireland  -  Denmark        2:1
    Spain  -  Sweden         3:0

ES 25 SE 23 NI 20 DK 17 LV 12 IS 8 LI+ 7

At last, something approaching sanity. Northern Ireland's pitch survived a pitch inspection following another torrential rainstorm: their late winner ensures that they have something to play for in Madrid next Wednesday. The comprehensive Spanish win ensures that side cannot now be caught. Latvia's win ensures they'll finish fifth, a good result given their lowly position in the summer.

SPAIN has qualified.
Sweden NEEDS a draw against Latvia, or Northern Ireland to lose in Spain.
Northern Ireland NEEDS to win in Spain, and Sweden to lose to Latvia. Can the boys from Riga spring another November surprise, four years after knocking out Turkey?

International: EURO qualification grp. G
   Bulgaria  -  Romania     1:0
    Albania  -  Belarus     2:4
Netherlands  -  Luxembourg  1:0

RO 26 NL 26 BG 22 AB 11 SV 11 BL 10 LU+ 3

Bulgaria did what they needed to do to keep their faint hopes alive, and Luxembourg gave good value in their inevitable defeat.

ROMANIA and NETHERLANDS have qualified.

Ten sides remain in contention for the last five spots, matches to be played on Wednesday.

linkpage | European |

The Sports Economist points us to a paper on how the NCAA-ball polls work. It demonstrates:

Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a large margin is negligible. I conclude by noting how these results inform debates about a potential playoff in college football.

How does Glickoblog reflect this? As followers have seen, the value of MICH's opening-day loss to Appalachian - as measured in the gap between MICH, which did not lose points, and MICH2, which did - had been scaled back from 91 to 45 points, prior to yesterday's game. On the other hand, a defeat yesterday for MICH against a side on 900 points (to be exact, the (899, 103) ranking of MDTEN) would have cost the side 53 ranking points. Other things being equal, it is slightly better for a decent side to get an embarrassing defeat out of the way early.

Margin of victory does not materially affect the voting. Nor does it affect Glickoblog rankings; see arguments passim.

The strength of a defeated opponent does not affect voting for the AP. It does for Glickoblog, but only while the ratings adjust to major shifts. To pick a bad example, GEOTC's opening-day win against NOTDM earned them 58 rating points, which we may reasonably halve through the passage of time. A win this week would have been worth just 17 points. This is a bad example because no-one quite knew just how abysmally rubbish NOTDM was at the beginning of the season: while they may not have been the 14th best side as we assumed, the consensus was that they were far closer to 14th than 70th. For NOTDM to fall, other sides have had to rise, and those sides that played the side early in the season will have been slightly over-rewarded. Similarly, those sides that lost early-season games to fast-rising sides like ARZST will be a smidge lower than they might otherwise be. More relevantly, OREGN's win in week 2 over MICH earned them 50 points; before this week's matches, it would be worth 26, no significant change.

For Glickoblog to address this perceived inconsistency, it would be necessary to recompute all rankings each time from the initial set. This is possible, and is an area we may explore in a future year.

A win over a good side is a win over a good side, but it seems that this factor is ignored by the human voters. Glickoblog awards lots of points for knocking off the number 1 side, as we saw last week. Losing to a strong opponent does help a team, and perhaps we might re-factor MICH's +0-2 start to the season as losses to the best side in I-AA last year (embarrassing, however you cut it) and the best side in the PX this (entirely reasonable for a BX contender).

On the field

The week began on Wednesday with this nationally-networked game:

Akron 0  vs. Miami (Ohio) 7

Mmm, gripping. Let's get the regular items out of the way early.

Who Have Notre Dame Lost To This Week?

 #113 Duke 7 vs. #68 Notre Dame 28

At the Top of Michigan's Beatpath

X- The Citadel 70 vs. VMI 28

The Citadel beat Elom beat Wofford beat App State beat Michigan beat Notre Dame beat Duke. So Citadel is six games better than Duke. Look at the rankings, this might be accurate.

Other lowly-ranked sides

 #107 Kent St. 14 vs. #110 Temple 24
 #117 Idaho 14 vs. #14 Boise St. 58
34- #118 Utah St. 35 vs. #109 New Mexico St. 17
 #103 Louisiana-Lafayette 38 vs. #119 Fla. International 28

Last year, Kent was excluded from the bowls only by the choice of the sponsors: they believed that a pisspoor Miamiflorida team would be more attractive. Temple is already out of contention for this year's games, but can look forward to something better next season. By losing by a mere ten points, this may be FLINT's best result of the year.

The bottom ten

LY   LW   TW          Conf    R      RD   Idle
====================================================================
111  108  110  UNLV    MW    731   104.9   0   Nevada, The Meadows
106  107  111  KENTS   MA    712   102.4   0   Kent State
79   112  112  SMU     CU    707    99.1   0   Southern Methodist
116  113  113  DUKE    AC    699   119.6   0   Duke
113  109  114  NMXST   WA    693   108.3   0   New Mexico Territory
104  114  115  UAB     CU    686   104.0   0   Alabama, Birmingham
110  116  116  NTEXS   SB    663   106.6   0   North Texas
114  118  117  UTHST   WA    637   111.5   0   Utah Territory
109  117  118  IDAHO   WA    614   111.8   0   Idaho
119  119  119  FLINT   SB    546   116.2   0   Florida International

We'll explain what happened to the other two escapers from the 110s later.

Last Week's Top Ten

 #1 LSU 41 vs. Mississippi 24
 #2 Ohio St. 14 vs. #9 Michigan 3
39- #3 Oklahoma 27 vs. #34 Texas Tech 34
      #4 Southern California - no game
 #5 West Virginia 28 vs. #27 Cincinnati 23
44- #6 Oregon 24 vs. Arizona 34
      #7 Texas - no game
 Miamiflorida 14 vs. #8 Virginia Tech 44
 #2 Ohio St. 14 vs. #9 Michigan 3
 Florida Atlantic 20 vs. #10 Florida 59

LSU gets a second straight victory against mediocre opposition, and it only adds three points to their total. The BX title game goes to OHIST, and it puts them right back into contention for the BCS title game, especially after defeats for OKLAH and OREGN. WVIRG won the first on its two games to decide the BE title, and suddenly enters into top-2 contention. Easy wins for VTECH and FLORD advance their claims by not hurting them.

Also in the top 40

 #25 Kentucky 13 vs. #12 Georgia 24
 Iowa St. 7 vs. #13 Kansas 45
 #15 Missouri 49 vs. Kansas St. 32
 #17 Boston College 20 vs. #20 Clemson 17
 Vanderbilt 24 vs. #18 Tennessee 25
 #24 Hawaii 28 vs. Nevada 26
 #30 Maryland 16 vs. #37 Florida St. 24

No game for #11 ARZST this week. The mess in the SE-E continues: Florida's win is joined by a difficult victory for GRGIA, and a trivial win for TENSE. Wins for both KANSS and MISRI, the sides in contention for the BT-N title. The AC-A goes to BOSCL, the AC-C will be decided next week after VTECH and VIRGI both won. HAWII continues to be unbeaten: if the title game were decided purely on won-loss record, the side would meet KANSS in the grand final.

The Upset-o-meter

46- #115 E. Michigan 48 vs. Cent. Michigan 45 44- #6 Oregon 24 vs. Arizona 34 42- #100 Louisiana-Monroe 21 vs. Alabama 14 41- W. Michigan 28 vs. Iowa 19 36- #18 Penn St. 31 vs. Michigan St. 35 34- #118 Utah St. 35 vs. #109 New Mexico St. 17 34- #111 Tulane 45 vs. Rice 31 32- #39 Purdue 24 vs. Indiana 27 30- San Jose St. 23 vs. Louisiana Tech 27

That's what happened to the sides in last week's bottom ten: they won games! EMICH's win is one of the biggest of the year, even larger an upset than OREGN's defeat. Defeat for near neighbours MICH ensures there will be much dancing in Depot Town this week.

Other inter-provincial matches

X- Harvard 37 vs. Yale 6
X- N. Carolina A&T 7 vs. S. Carolina St. 51
X- N. Dakota St. 24 vs. S. Dakota St. 29
X- Tenn.-Martin 43 vs. Tennessee St. 38
X- Montana 41 vs. Montana St. 20

The Top 30

LY   LW   TW          Conf    R      RD   Idle
====================================================================
 2    2    1   OHIST   BX   1395   110.8   0   Ohio Province
 4    1    2   LSU     SE   1382   111.9   0   Louisiana Purchase
10    5    3   WVIRG   BE   1335   112.3   0   W Virginia
 1    4    4   SCALF   PX   1329   110.8   1   Southern California
 5    7    5   TEXAS   BT   1297   106.8   1   Texas
11    8    6   VTECH   AC   1294   105.4   0   Virginia Tech
 9    3    7   OKLAH   BT   1284   105.7   0   Oklahoma
18   12    8   GRGIA   SE   1278   101.5   0   Georgia
 3   10    9   FLORD   SE   1273   105.1   0   Florida
38   15   10   MISRI   BT   1272    99.4   0   Missouri
36   11   11   ARZST   PX   1259    99.9   1   Arizona Province
19   17   12   BOSCL   AC   1259   105.6   0   Boston College
12    9   13   MICH    BX   1258   103.2   0   Michigan
53   13   14   KANSS   BT   1256    99.5   0   Kansas
32    6   15   OREGN   PX   1251   102.5   0   Oregon
 7   16   16   WISCO   BX   1249   105.6   0   Wisconsin
13   14   17   BSEST   WA   1248   104.8   0   Boise State
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1217    99.9   0   Michigan 2
30   19   18   TENSE   SE   1209    98.1   0   Tennessee
21   21   19   BYU     MW   1201   104.4   0   Brigham Young
39   24   20   HAWII   WA   1192   116.2   0   Hawaii
15   23   21   CALIF   PX   1186   100.5   0   California
 8   22   22   AUBRN   SE   1180   107.0   1   Auburn
34   20   23   CLEMS   AC   1170   100.5   0   Clemson
27   28   24   ORGST   PX   1168    98.0   0   Oregon Territory
17   18   25   PENST   BX   1168   100.6   0   Penn Province
56   26   26   VIRGI   AC   1162    96.8   1   Virginia
24   34   27   TXSTC   BT   1155   100.3   0   Texas Tech
23   29   28   WAKEF   AC   1153    97.2   0   Wake Forest
54   25   29   KNTCY   SE   1143   104.1   0   Kentucky
44   27   30   CINCI   BE   1142   102.5   0   Cincinnati

Right, let's crunch the numbers for the BCS entrants. OHIST has finished, complete, kaput, will not budge from 1395. LSU has one relatively trivial game next week, then the SE title game against TENSE or GRGIA. Winning both will take LSU above 1400 points, and surely a place in the final. WVIRG has shot into contention with defeats for OREGN and OKLAH, but would really need LSU to lose their title game; a win against CONNC puts them on 1350. If SCALF wins the PX title, their history could count enough to put them into second; a win against ARZST lifts the side above 1350, but they've then got to beat UCLA. TEXAS is unlikely to make the BT title game. A +13-0 KANSS will rank very highly amongst the human voters. Sod easy schedules, this side has yet to taste defeat, let's put them in the top bracket. The AC champion is assured a place in the top ten, and there's still the chance of BSEST or HAWII crashing the party.

Calling the BCS bowls

Our gut feeling is:

Title game LSU - KANSS

Reserves OHIST, GRGIA, TENSE, in that order, depending on who wins their conferences. Obviously, not all can. Ranking the others is an academic exercise, because we have two certain winners (BX and SE), but we reckon it goes ARZST, OKLAH, OREGN, WVIRG, VTECH, MISRI, SCALF.

Wild cards Almost certain that the SE runner-up will get an invite. We still think two from the PX is likely, with OREGN probably getting a place if it wins out - for both SCALF and ARZST, it's win or bust next week. OKLAH and MISRI have credible shouts for the top ten even if they lose. VTECH may squeeze in if it loses the AC title game, though not if it loses to VIRGI next week. A +12-0 HAWII would get the last place; things would be easier if it lost, as BX cannot hope to claim two spots, and we can only see BE taking two if WVIRG loses and there's a mess in both PX and AC.

Conferences in detail

AC BOSCL has won the Atlantic, even if it loses to Miamiflorida. The Coastal will be decided by the meeting of VIRGI and VTECH.

BE WVIRG and CONNC meet to decide the title.

BT KANSS and MISRI meet to decide the North division. OKLAH need only beat OKLST to win the South; a defeat would allow TEXAS to take the division with a win.

BX OHIST has won, beating ILLNS and MICH by a game. All sides have now finished their seasons.

CU In the East, UCF has a one-game lead over MEMPH and ECARL; a three-way tie would resolve in favour of UCF, but they would lose a straight tie to ECARL. HOUST has finished its conference programme, but will lose top spot if TULSA wins.

MA Miami for the bowls! MIOHO has the East division won, and will play CMICH for the title.

MW Even with two divisional games left to play, BYU has this one in the bag.

PX It's ARZST's to lose, but if they can't beat SCALF, they would tend to lose. In this situation, OREGN wins if it can win its final divisional match. Note that all three sides have a later game - ARZST finishes against ARIZN, SCALF has UCLA, and OREGN's games are against UCLA and ORGST.

SE LSU has wrapped up the West. We're taking out a contract on ESPN's oh-so-inaccurate journalism, as it appears FLORD has finished its divisional activity, meaning that TENSE has it to lose in the East; we can hear the cheers for KNTCY from here. Bloody Mickey Mouse organisations.

SB TROY is a game clear of FLATL; the sides meet in two weeks.

WA Still boiling down to HAWII-BSEST.

XX NAVY for the bowls, nothing for the others but derision.

Television coverage

Th 1700 SB: Middle Tennessee -v- Troy (tape)
Fr 0100 PX: Southern California -v- Arizona Province
Fr 1700 BT: Nebraska -v- Colorado
Fr 2030 BT: Texas -v- Texas A and M
Sa 0200 WA: Boise State -v- Hawaii
Sa 1700        Match tbc
Sa 2030 PX: Oregon -v- UCLA
Su 0800 **: Florida Swamp -v- Florida (tape)
Su 1100 SE: Alabama -v- Auburn (tape)
Su 2230 CFL The Grey Cup Final

linkpage | NCAA |

Of seven groups in action last night, five of them were pretty dull. Everything had been decided, or required unlikely outcomes. We would like to have been gripped by the Portugal - Finland match, but couldn't find anyone bothering to cover this event, though kudos to the BBC for showing Sweden - Latvia.

International: EURO qualification grp. A
   Armenia  -  Kazakhstan  0:1
Azerbaijan  -  Belgium     0:0
  Portugal  -  Finland     0:0
    Serbia  -  Poland      2:2

PL 28 PT 27 FI 24 RS 21* BE 16 AM 15 KZ 10* AZ 6

Serbia's match against Kazakhstan was re-scheduled for Sunday, but further snowfall prevented the match from taking place. It's been rescheduled for next Saturday; UEFA insists that foreign signings should rejoin their home clubs. What a way to run a railroad.

In the event, that hasn't affected the qualification process: Portugal got the point they needed to qualify regardless of what the Serbs did: two late goals will have scared the Poles. Kazakhstan's win gives them 10 points. We disagree with UEFA that Armenia should not be awarded the points from their cancelled matches against Azerbaijan.

International: EURO qualification grp. B
Georgia  -  Lithuania      0:2
  Italy  -  Faroe Islands  3:1
Ukraine  -  France         2:2

IT 29 FR 26 SC 24 UA 17 LT 16 GA 10 FO 0

Georgia was the reigning knockout European champions, after beating Scotland last month; the title now rests with Lithuania and cannot be transferred to the Technology College on Saturday. The Faroes scored only their fourth goal of the campaign, and France conceded only their fourth and fifth: Scotland had two 1:0 wins, and Italy scored in their 3:1 defeat last year.

International: EURO qualification grp. C
  Malta  -  Norway              1:4
 Turkey  -  Bosnia-Herzegovina  1:0
Hungary  -  Greece              1:2

GR 31 TR 24 NO 23 BH 13 MV 12 HU 12 MT 5

It's fair to say that Greece took full advantage of their status as title-holders: easy group was certain, easy group winners was not, and easily group winners shows the side won't give up its title that easily.

International: EURO qualification grp. D
    Cyprus  -  Czechia   0:2
   Germany  -  Wales     0:0
San Marino  -  Slovakia  0:5

CZ 29 DE 27 IE 17 SK 16 WA 15 CY 14 SM 0

A week ago, we were wondering if Cyprus might finish third. They came sixth, and Slovakia climbed a place with each game to end up fourth. Wales's draw in Germany is their best result of the campaign.

International: EURO qualification grp. E
  Andorra  -  Russia   0:1
  England  -  Croatia  2:3

HR 23 RU 23 EN 19 MK 14 EE 7 AD 0

In the event, UEFA's political decision not to exclude Israel from the tournament as they saw it had no effect. The last goal of the qualification stage proper restored Croatia's deserved lead, and ensured they would go through and England would go home.

International: EURO qualification grp. F
Denmark  -  Iceland    3:0
  Spain  -  N.Ireland  1:0
 Sweden  -  Latvia     2:1

ES 28 SE 26 NI 20 DK 20 LV 12 IS 8 LI 7

Single-goal wins for the qualified sides proved sufficient, Sweden establishing their lead in the first minute of the match. Northern Ireland's campaign has been a landmark victory.

International: EURO qualification grp. G
  Romania  -  Albania      6:1
  Belarus  -  Netherlands  2:1
 Slovenia  -  Bulgaria     0:2

RO 29 NL 26 BG 25 BL 13 AB 11 SV 11 LU 3

In spite of losing to Luxembourg, and conceding both goals the side scored, Belarus climb through to finish fourth. There are those who will suggest that the Dutch lost their game to help their seeding...

That Seeding In Full

    Pl Pt Coeff
GR 24 52 2.167
CH 10 18 1.800
AT 10 15 1.500
NL 24 58 2.417
==============
HR 22 53 2.401
IT 22 52 2.363
CZ 24 56 2.333
SE 22 50 2.273
==============
DE 12 27 2.250
RO 24 54 2.250
PT 26 57 2.192
ES 22 48 2.182
==============
FR 22 48 2.182
PL 24 52 2.167
RU 24 47 1.958
TR 24 47 1.958

Greece as champions, Switzerland, and Austria as hosts automatically qualify for Pot A, joined by the best qualifier aggregating results from this campaign and the one for the 2006 World Cup. Had Germany won, they would have finished on 29 points from 12, advancing over the Dutch on performance in the 2008 qualifiers. However, the draw drops the Germans into Pot C. France also drops down based on their slightly worse performance this time out, setting up the possibility of...

The Ultimate Group of Death

Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France

We'll find out when the draw is made on 2 December.

World Cup 2010: the coverage starts now

Before then will be the draw for the European section of the 2010 World Cup. The 53 entrants (including newcomers Montenegro) will be divided into nine groups; eight groups of six, and one of five. The nine group winners will progress as of right; the eight best runners-up (in matches against other sides in the group top 4 only) will play off for the last four places. The ranking is precisely the European sides in the FIFA World Rankings to be announced to-morrow.

Though FIFA hasn't officially published its rankings, it is possible to back-calculate them to within a small margin of error. The provisional pottings for the 2010 draw are as follows:

Pot 1: France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Czechia, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Greece

Pot 2: England, Romania, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Sweden, Poland, Russia, Israel

Pot 3: Serbia, Norway, Ukraine, Finland, Denmark, Northen Ireland, Ireland, Switzerland, Belgium

Pot 4: Slovakia, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova, Macedonia, Wales, Belarus, Lithuania, Cyprus

Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakstan, Liechtenstein

Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino

With the exception of pots 4 and 5, where there's a clear difference, it's possible that the top team in any given pot may oust the bottom team from the next pots above. If there's one most likely to change, it's England moving to pot 1 at the expense of Greece. Serbia's postponed match against Kazakhstan will not enter into calculations.

The ceremony begins at 3pm on Sunday; there appears to be no television coverage at all, but we expect there will be commentary on Radio 5 and on CEEFAX.

Next week!

Friday
1930 Set1 Karlsruher -v- Hertha Berlin

Saturday
1230 Set1 Falkirk -v- Rangers
1330 ESP2 Kaiser Chiefs -v- Orlando Pirates
1715 Set1 Derby County -v- Chelsea
2030 NASN Connecticit -v- Virginia West
2145 Set2 Bayern Munich -v- Wolfsburg (tape)
2230 BBC1 Match of the Day (highlights)

Sunday
0925 ITV  The Division II (highlights; not STV)
1330 Set2 Ajax -v- Vitesse Arnhem
1400 Set2 Gretna -v- Hearts
1400 C5     An Italian match
1400 NASN Missouri -v- Kansas (tape)
1500 **** World Cup Draw Ceremony (Radio 5?)
1800 Set1 Auxerre -v- Le Mans
2000 Set1 Nice -v- PSG
2000 Set2 Nurnburg -v- Borussia Dortmund (tape)
2200 BBC2 Match of the Day 2 (highlights)

Monday
1715 Celt Celtic -v- Aberdeen (tape)
1945 Set1 Stevenage -v- Altrincham
2305 STV  Scotsport (highlights)
2330 S4C  Y Clwb Pel-Droed (highlights)

Tuesday
1945 ITV  Manchester Buccaneers -v- Sporting Lisbon
1945 STV  Stuttgart Nil -v- Rangers
1945 ITV4 Sevilla -v- Arsenal

Thursday
1945 ITV4 Tottenham -v- Aalborg
1955 BBCi Atletico Madrid -v- Aberdeen
  BBC1 Scotland, red button elsewhere
2000 C5   Bolton -v- ARIS Salonika
2215 ESPT UEFA Cup Highlights
2300 CELT Celtic -v- Shaktar Donetsk (tape)
2300 ESPT European League Highlights

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

Let's begin with the big guns, because there have been some substantial changes.

Top Ten Contenders

          #1 Ohio Province - no game
43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48
 #37 Connecticut 21 vs. #3 West Virginia 66
 #4 Southern Cal 44  vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
 #6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21
 Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49
 #8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17
 #34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45
 #10 Missouri 36 vs. #14 Kansas 28
 #4 Southern Cal 44  vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
 Miami 14  vs. #12 Boston College 28
37- #15 Oregon 0 vs. #43 UCLA 16
 #17 Boise St. 27 vs. #20 Hawaii 39
 #18 Tennessee 52 vs. #29 Kentucky 50

LSU's shock defeat on Friday night hasn't cost them a place in the SE title game - that was always in the bag - but has almost certainly cost a place in the BCS title game. WVIRG's blowout win has secured the BE title. SCALF kept itself firmly in the running with victory over Arizona Province, ensuring it's the Californish who have the matter in their own hands. That game was played on Thursday; not until the early hours of Sunday did UCLA set the cat amongst the toffees with its win over Oregon. Virginia Technical College beat Virginia to seal a place in the AC title game. Texas's loss is the third of its season, and ends any residual hope of cracking the BCS circle; it also ensured Oklahoma a berth in the BT title game. Their opponents will be Missouri, winners in the winner-take-all match. Friday's late game saw Hawaii overpower Boise, and needing just one more win to finish the season undefeated. LSU's opponents in the SE title game will be Tennessee, a side that won only one game of significance all season, and was taken into four periods of extra time this week, but the one big win happened to be against divisional rivals Georgia.

Other Top 40 sides

 #33 Utah 10 vs. #19 BYU 17

The Notoriously Rubbish

 Notre Dame 21 vs. Stanford 14
 #106 Buffalo 30 vs. #111 Kent St. 23
 #117 Utah St. 24 vs. #118 Idaho 19
 Florida Atlantic 55 vs. #119 Fla. International 23

Notre Dame manages a third win, and is provisionally ranked number 62 for the season. One place below them, after a second consecutive rubbish season, is Miamiflorida. Last year, the blowhards relied on a victory over a Division II side and the reflected shine of their former glories to progress into the play-offs. This year, no such luck is possible, and the side is not eligible for a game. Had Notre Dame not been so rubbish early this season, much more attention would have been thrown on the continued mediocrity of the MIAFL team.

As it is, FLINT ends the year +0-11 in games against top-flight sides, level with IDAHO. UTHST's winning streak now stands at two matches, and this feels like a good place to declare. We'll list the bottom ten, and all 109 places above them, next week.

The Upset-o-meter

43- #40 Arkansas 50 vs. #2 LSU 48
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
37- Wyoming 28 vs. #103 Colorado St. 36
32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65

Division II News

X- James Madison 27 vs. Appalachian St. 28
X- Wofford 23 vs. Montana 22

Squeakers!

Score Your Ranking!

32- #42 Nebraska 51 vs. #64 Colorado 65
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38

Oh, bad luck Colorado, missing the jackpot prize by just one conversion; we should also note NBRSK's valiant attempt to have the game end 42:64. TEXAM capped a good win by scoring precisely their ranking.

Inter-Provincial Championships

 #4 Southern Cal 44  vs. #11 Arizona St. 24
X- Delaware St. 7 vs. Delaware 44
 Mississippi 14 vs. Mississippi St. 17
38- #5 Texas 30 vs. #38 Texas A&M 38
 #6 Virginia Tech 33 vs. #26 Virginia 21
 Oklahoma St. 17 vs. #7 Oklahoma 49
 #8 Georgia 31 vs. #32 Georgia Tech 17
 #34 Florida St. 12 vs. #9 Florida 45
 Miami (Ohio) 29 vs. Ohio 38
X- E. Illinois 11 vs. S. Illinois 30
 Louisiana-Monroe 17 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 11
 Washington St. 42 vs. Washington 35

Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
==================================================================
 2    1    1   OHIST   BX   1395   110.8   1   Ohio Province
 1    4    2   SCALF   PX   1355   107.4   0   Southern California
10    3    3   WVIRG   BE   1350   109.4   0   W Virginia
 4    2    4   LSU     SE   1328   109.7   0   Louisiana Purchase
11    6    5   VTECH   AC   1313   102.4   0   Virginia Tech
 9    7    6   OKLAH   BT   1298   103.3   0   Oklahoma
38   10    7   MISRI   BT   1296    96.6   0   Missouri
18    8    8   GRGIA   SE   1295    99.0   0   Georgia
 3    9    9   FLORD   SE   1291   102.2   0   Florida
19   12   10   BOSCL   AC   1272   103.4   0   Boston College
12   13   11   MICH    BX   1258   103.2   1   Michigan
 5    5   12   TEXAS   BT   1252   104.7   0   Texas
 7   16   13   WISCO   BX   1249   105.6   1   Wisconsin
36   11   14   ARZST   PX   1238    97.9   0   Arizona Province
39   20   15   HAWII   WA   1231   111.4   0   Hawaii
53   14   16   KANSS   BT   1231    96.7   0   Kansas
30   18   17   TENSE   SE   1229    95.6   0   Tennessee
21   19   18   BYU     MW   1224   101.1   0   Brigham Young
12   --   --   MICH2   BX   1217    99.9   1   Michigan 2
13   17   19   BSEST   WA   1216   101.6   0   Boise State
32   15   20   OREGN   PX   1212   100.0   0   Oregon
 8   22   21   AUBRN   SE   1198   104.6   0   Auburn
34   23   22   CLEMS   AC   1190    97.8   0   Clemson
15   21   23   CALIF   PX   1186   100.5   1   California
27   24   24   ORGST   PX   1168    98.0   1   Oregon Territory
17   25   25   PENST   BX   1168   100.6   1   Penn Province
23   28   26   WAKEF   AC   1165    95.5   0   Wake Forest
24   27   27   TXSTC   BT   1155   100.3   1   Texas Tech
42   31   28   SFLOR   BE   1153   100.1   0   S Florida
44   30   29   CINCI   BE   1149   101.5   0   Cincinnati
56   26   30   VIRGI   AC   1146    95.4   0   Virginia

Last week, we said the most likely BCS title game was LSU-KANSS. We don't think that any more.

Conferences in detail

AC BOSCL and VTECH will compete for the title. A VTECH win lifts them to 1337, a BOSCL win puts them on 1303. Ratings of the losers would be BOSCL 1248, VTECH 1283.

BE Won by WVIRG, who play PITTS next week. A win will put them on 1355, a defeat sees the side slump to 1291.

BT MISRI against OKLAH. A win for OKLAH takes them to 1325, for MISRI to 1320. Defeated OKLAH rests at 1270, MISRI at 1272.

BX OHIST has won, and will remain at 1395.

SE LSU and TENSE here. A win for LSU advances them to 1351, a defeat to 1289. TENSE will end on 1259 or 1212.

WA Has been won by HAWII; though they're only on 1231, 1241 with a victory against WASNG next week, the only +12-0 side will surely get into the top ten.

PX There's a reason we've taken them out of order... Remember how we've been floating the possibility that this division could end up in one awful mess? This division could end up in the biggest pile-up of quality mediocrity in history. SCALF heads ARZST on head-to-head, with OREGN, ORGST, and UCLA all one game back. Now, the division cannot finish in a five-way tie, as OREGN and ORGST play next week. However, if UCLA knocks off SCALF (which is quite possible), and ARZST can't win its derby against ARIZN (not quite on a par with Andorra drawing with Russia, but you get the drift), we will have four sides on +6-3 in the division. If this happened, the win-loss matrix (excluding OREGN-ORGST) would look like this:

SCALF ..0 1.0 1..
ARZST .0. 01. .1.
UCLA  1.. .01 ..1
OREGN 011 ... ...
ORGST ... ... 000

All would hinge on the winner of the Oregon match. If it were OREGN (read the left two columns), they would have two wins against the other tied sides, but so would UCLA, and UCLA won the head-to-head game, so would be champions. However, if ORGST won (right-hand columns), then SCALF, UCLA, and ARZST all have two wins each, and we have to go looking into the PX rulebook for its tiebreaking arcana. Next up: matches against the next side down in the rankings, which is ARIZN, who beat OREGN last week. By assumption, ARIZN beat ARZST, and we find they beat UCLA but lost to SCALF, who are therefore the champions.

So, the scenarios are:
SCALF beats UCLA, wins title, done, dusted, see you in the big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST beats ARIZN, then ARZST wins title, done, dusted, see you in the not-so-big game.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN beats ORGST, then UCLA wins the title on head-to-head records. Cue much confusion amongst the punditocracy.
SCALF loses to UCLA and ARZST loses to ARIZN and OREGN loses to ORGST, then matches against ARIZN enter the tie-break, SCALF wins, and the number of people who fully comprehend the reasons why is approximately equal to the number of readers of this blog.

Glad we've got that cleared up! Oh, rankings. SCALF finishes on 1368 if it wins its game, 1308 if it wins via this catflap in the back door method. UCLA can only win the division with a win, and ends on 1162. ARZST also needs a win, finishing on 1251.

Quickly through the other minors: CU UCF against TULSA. MA BOWLG against CMICH. MW BYU. SB TROY and FLATL meet in a regular-season game next week.

The projected top end

Here's how the top 20 could look next week, assuming things go according to plan. Bold indicates a team is champion of its division; italics that they're otherwise not in action next week. Outside the current top ten, we only give points assuming the side wins.

TW NW         Conf     R
===================================================
 1  1  OHIST   BX   1395        Ohio Province
 2  2  SCALF   PX   1368-1308   Southern California
 3  3  WVIRG   BE   1355-1291   W Virginia
 4  4  LSU     SE   1351-1289   Louisiana Purchase
 5  5  VTECH   AC   1337-1283   Virginia Tech
 6  6  OKLAH   BT   1325-1270   Oklahoma
 7  7  MISRI   BT   1320-1272   Missouri
10  8  BOSCL   AC   1303-1248   Boston College
 8  9  GRGIA   SE   1295        Georgia
 9 10  FLORD   SE   1291        Florida
17 11  TENSE   SE   1259        Tennessee
11 12  MICH    BX   1258        Michigan
12 13  TEXAS   BT   1252        Texas
14 14  ARZST   PX   1251        Arizona Province
13 15  WISCO   BX   1249        Wisconsin
15 16  HAWII   WA   1241        Hawaii
16 17  KANSS   BT   1231        Kansas
19 18  BSEST   WA   1230        Boise State
18 19  BYU     MW   1224        Brigham Young
20 20  OREGN   PX   1235        Oregon
....
35 27  UCLA    PX   1162        Calif, Senora Riena

So, who is going to the BCS title game? Based on these figures, and ignoring the prejudiced rantings of the humans who couldn't decide how many sugars to have in their tea (believe them, and it's WVIRG-MISRI for the taking), OHIST looks to be a complete certainty. Their opponent could realistically be any of the sides ranked 2-7, and we must bear in mind that either OKLAH or MISRI must win their game.

Two principal considerations for the wild-card spots: SCALF and VTECH. Both will have very strong records even if they lose. We can't say the same about LSU, partly because they'll have lost two on the bounce, and partly because TENSE has ridden tremendous amounts of luck to be in the divisional final in the first place. So strong is the SE division that if TENSE wins its game, it will still only be the fourth-placed SE side in these rankings. Of the others, FLORD will be handicapped by being last year's winners, last year's BCS champions, and generally last year. GRGIA has a stronger claim for inclusion. We reckon it will be stronger if LSU comes away with a win, but the difference is marginal.

HAWII should get a place with a win. Assuming that neither SCALF nor VTECH lose, the BT loser (though KANSS may be prefered to OKLAH) should be invited to something, with either BOSCL or ARZST in the wings should the favourites win or HAWII lose.

In summary:
AC VTECH almost certain, and in top 2 consideration with win; BOSCL possible.
BE WVIRG certain of top 10, possible top 2.
BT MISRI probable, OKLAH or KANSS possible. Winner an outside bet for top 2.
BX OHIST certain, probably in top 2.
PX SCALF probable of top 10, possible top 2; could be joined by ARZST. UCLA, if they travel, would go alone, because if there's one thing we know about NCAA-ball voters, it's that they hate a smart-arse.
SE LSU in top 2 consideration with a win; TENSE, GRGIA both possible.
WA HAWII in with a win, out otherwise.

Next week's televised games

Fr 1730 BE #33 Rutgers -v- #49 Louisville
Sa 1030 WA #64 Fresnostate -v- #111 New Mexico Territory
Sa 1800 AC #5 Virginia Coll of Tech -v- #10 Boston College
Sa 2100 SE #4 Louisiana Purchase -v- #17 Tennessee
Su 0100 BT #7 Missouri -v- #6 Oklahoma
Su 0700 ** Army -v- Navy
Su 1000 PX #35 UCLA -v- #2 SCALF (tape)
Su 1600   Match Of The Day
Mo 1900   BCS Draw
Tu 1630 PX #24 Oregon Province -v- #20 Oregon (tape)

Coverage of the Division II play-offs begins on 8 December.

linkpage | NCAA |

Draws have been made for the World Cup in most sections: there will be all-against-all qualifiers in South America, and Oceania used the Pacific Games as a qualifying tournament for its final round.

CONCACAF draw

FARCE vs (Dominica vs Barbados)
Guatemala vs (Turks and Caicos Islands vs St. Lucia)
Trinidad and Tobago vs (Bermuda vs Cayman Islands)
(Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda) vs Cuba

(Belize vs St. Kitts and Nevis) vs Mexico
Jamaica vs (Bahamas vs British Virgin Islands)
Honduras vs (Dominican Rep. vs Puerto Rico)
Canada vs St. Vincent/Grenadine

(US Virgin Islands vs Grenada) vs Costa Rica
(Suriname vs Montserrat) vs Guyana
Panama vs (El Salvador vs Anguilla)
Haiti vs (Nicaragua vs Netherland Antilles)

Winners of each fixture enter a group of 4 who will play a round-robin next year; top two progress to the last six, which plays in 2009. Because seeding was done by performance at the last WC, the middle section contains four of the top six sides in the FIFA rankings; only the FARCE and Costa Rica have escaped. We do look forward to the colonials having to play against Cuba, because we're nasty like that.

Africa draw

Group 1: Cameroon, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Mauritius
Group 2: Guinea, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Kenya
Group 3: Angola, Benin, Uganda, Niger
Group 4: Nigeria, South Africa, Equatorial Guinea, Sierra Leone
Group 5: Ghana, Libya, Gabon, Lesotho
Group 6: Senegal, Algeria, Liberia, Gambia
Group 7: Cote d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Botswana, Madagascar
Group 8: Morocco, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Mauritania
Group 9: Tunisia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Seychelles
Group 10: Mali, Congo, Sudan, Chad
Group 11: Togo, Zambia, Eritrea, Swaziland
Group 12: Egypt, Congo DR, Malawi, Djibouti

Round-robin in 2008; the group winners and eight best runners-up will be re-drawn into five groups of four. Winners of each group - excluding matches against South Africa in their group - will make the World Cup. Next two in each group, plus hosts Angloa, will make the 2010 Cup of Nations. A tricky draw for South Africa, in particular.

Asia draw

Group 1: Iraq, Qatar, Red China, Australia
Group 2: Oman, Thailand, Bahrain, Japan
Group 3: North Korea, Jordan, Turkmenistan, South Korea
Group 4: Lebanon, Singapore, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia
Group 5: Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran

These groups will play out next year; top two progress to a further draw into two groups of five, they play a tight schedule in 2009. Top two in each group qualifies automatically; winner of a play off between the thirds will play New Zealand the winner of Oceania. At this stage, group 1 looks very difficult, and group 5 could also be tight.

Europe

Group 1 Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Albania, Malta
Group 2 Greece, Israel, Switzerland, Moldova, Latvia, Luxembourg
Group 3 Czechia, Poland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, San Marino
Group 4 Germany, Russia, Finland, Wales, Azerbaijan, Liechtenstein
Group 5 Spain, Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Armenia, Estonia
Group 6 Croatia, England, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Andorra
Group 7 France, Romania, Serbia, Lithuania, Austria, Faroe Islands
Group 8 Italy, Bulgaria, Republic of Ireland, Cyprus, Georgia, Montenegro
Group 9 Netherlands, Scotland, Norway, Macedonia, Iceland

Group winners progress to the finals, eight best runners-up (discarding results against 6th in the group) play off for the last places.

Some analysis? 1 looks tight, 2 has little depth and will provide cannon-fodder for some lucky side in the play-off; it's a dream draw for Switzerland and Latvia. 3 is so obvious they may as well just have Czechia and Poland play head-to-head in October 2009 and be done with it. 4 has three maddeningly inconsistent sides, the least inconsistent will finish behind Germany; and it redresses the injustice of promoting Azerbaijan above Liechtenstein because no-one at FIFA could quite belive the Liechts were pot 5 material. 5 looks like a good scrap, but for third. 6 contains three sides who believe they can make the quarter-finals of the whole contest, and three make-weights. 7 could be the group to send only one side: all three makeweights are capable of pulling off upsets (remember qualifying for Euro 92?), and the top brass will take points off each other. Difficult for the defending champions. 8 is about as easy a group as Italy could have hoped for. 9 also has strength in depth; it's not so long since we were seriously discussing Iceland's chances of qualification.

The upset-o-meter

47  BOLTON WANDERERS -v- Manchester Buccaneers  1:0
38  BARNSLEY -v- Watford  3:2
37  CAEN -v- Bordeaux  5:0
35  Seville FC -v- MALLORCA 1:2
32  NURNBERG -v- Bor. Dortmund  2:0
31  AUXERRE -v- Le Mans 3:0
22  LARISSA -v- Panathanaikos 2:2
19  GRETNA - Hearts 1:1
18  Villarreal -v- ALMERIA  1:1
17  REAL MURCIA -v- Real Madrid 1:1
15  FULHAM -v- Blackburn Rovers  2:2

Bolton pull off a remarkable victory, just when the side was staring relegation in the face. Barnsley knock off the Division II leaders, and we note Caen's large margin of victory. That's a win!

Division II

CHA   865   84.1   54   0.64
WAT   864   86.9  -41  -0.47
WBA   841   82.8   55   0.66
WLV   799   82.5   17   0.21
PLY   772   82.2    4   0.05
STK   770   83.6  -35  -0.42
HUL   767   82.0   51   0.62
IPS   767   84.5    3   0.04
BRC   763   90.9  -28  -0.31
SFU   763   82.0   39   0.48
LEI   758   82.9  -12  -0.14
SOT   754   82.9  -23  -0.28
BAN   750   83.7    5   0.06
SFW   734   82.9   52   0.63
BNL   727   82.9    0   0.00
CDF   725   81.1   11   0.14
CPL   718   83.3    0   0.00
CCR   706   83.9  -50  -0.60
QPR   702   85.3   63   0.74
COV   698   82.3  -15  -0.18
PNE   685   83.4  -25  -0.30
SCU   668   92.6  -54  -0.58
BPL   637   87.6  -83  -0.95
NOR   591   85.4    2   0.02

LEE (III)   742   111.1   16   0.14
CRW (III)   684   131.2    0   0.00
LUT (III)   677   104.7   56   0.53
SEN (III)   666   104.5  -34  -0.33
BRI (III)   597   124.1    6   0.05
MIL (III)   518   134.3  -25  -0.19

Watford's second defeat in three games costs them the lead, and it goes to the side that beat them just before the international week-end. Westbrom and Wolves drew 0:0 this week-end. Hull, Sheffield W, and QPR all had a good month; Blackpool and Colchester were well below average. In Division III, Leeds has crept into the playoff places. Luton has suffered a 10-point deduction after the side went into financial administration; it's back in the relegation zone to Division IV.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Four matches of note in domestic competition this week:

36   Watford - Burnley   1:2
34   Charlton Athletic - Sheffield United   0:3
32   Blackburn - Aston Villa   0:4
30   Blackpool - Norwich City   1:3

European League: Group A of Former Champions

   Besiktas  -  Marseille 2:1 (33)
Liverpool S  -  Porto     4:1

PTO 8 MAR 7 LIV 7 BES 6

Marseille has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Liverpool, and will outrank them if the match on the Med ends in a draw. Unless, that is, Besiktas can scrape a win in Portugal. Then, a draw in Marseille would bring the three-way head-to-head rankings into play. BES would qualify as winners; the three remaining sides each took five points off each other. Goal difference in the matches: LIV +3, MAR 0, POR -3, Liverpool progress, and Alan Green gets confused. But it'll be easier if they win.

Group B of Not As Obvious As We Thoughtness

Rosenborg  -  CSKA Kensington 0:4
 Valencia  -  Schalke 04      0:0

CHE 11 ROS 7 SNV 5 VAL 4

CSKA Kensington's win ensures they qualify as group champions; Rosenborg beat Valencia home and away and is assured UEFA Cup football; a draw in Schalke will put them into the last 16. We're not surprised that the Valencia - Schalke match ended in a draw: both sides came into the match with identical rankings and RDs: (1067, 82.7).

Group C of Dividends

Werder Bremen  -  Real Madrid 3:2 (34)
        Lazio  -  Olympiakos  1:2

RMD 8 OLY 8 WER 6 LAZ 5

Real Madrid has almost qualified. Only one of Olympiakos and Werder Bremen can finish ahead of Real, and the Spaniards have tie-breakers against both sides if they finish level. However, if Werder beats Olympiakos by any score, and Lazio beats Real by two or more goals, the Italian side will oust Madrid from the second round: a 0:3, 1:4, or four-goal defeat will allow Olympiakos into the UEFA Cup. But it'll be easier if they can force a draw.

Group D of How Will Portugal Mess This One Up?

Benfica  -  AC Milan         1:1
 Celtic  -  Shakhtar Donetsk 2:1

ACM 10 CEL 9 SHA 6 BEN 4

AC Milan has qualified. Shakhtar has the tie-breakers over Celtic, and the Scots visit Milan next Tuesday for the final game. Benfica needs a win in Ukraine to make the UEFA Cup.

Group E of Death

Stuttgart  -  Rangers   3:2
     Lyon  -  Barcelona 2:2

BAR 11 RAN 7 LYN 7 STT 3

As we've long expected, this group comes down to the clash at Ibrox in two weeks. Rangers need a draw. Barcelona has qualified.

Group F of Tedium

 Dynamo Kyiv  -  Roma            1:4
Manchester B  -  Sporting Lisbon 2:1

MUN 15 ROM 10 SLS 4 KYV 0

As we've long expected, this group is done and dusted with a round to spare.

Group G of Acronyms

   CSKA Moskow  -  PSV Eindhoven 0:1
Internazionale  -  Fenerbahce    3:0

INT 12 FEN 8 PSV 7 CSK 1

Inter has qualified after winning four in a row. Fenerbahce has the tie-breakers over PSV, meaning the Dutch side needs a win.

Group H of Censored

         Seville  -  Arsenal       3:1 (35)
Steaua Bucharest  -  Slavia Prague 1:1

SEV 12 ANL 10 SLP 5 STE 1

Seville and Arsenal have qualified; the away goal means that Arsenal has the tie-breakers, but still needs to beat Steaua in the final match.

UEFA Cup: Group Phase: Match 3

Group A of AZ
Zenit St Petersburg - Nürnburg 2:2
         AZ Alkmaar - Larisa   1:0
Idle: Everton

EVE* 6 ZSP 5 AZA* 4 NUR* 1 LAR 0

Group B of Mutton
Lokomotiv Moscow - Køvehaben 0:1 (31)
 Atlético Madrid - Aberdeen  2:1
Idle: Panathanaikos

PAN* 6 AMD* 4 COP* 3 LOK 2 ABD 1

Group C of Seeding
IF Elfsborg - Mladá Boleslav 1:3
 AEK Athens - Fiorentina     1:1 (15)
Idle: Villarreal

FIO 5 VIL* 4 BLV* 3 AEK* 2 ELF 1

Group D of Dwarves
  Brann - Dinamo Zagreb 2:1
Hamburg - Rennes        3:0
Idle: Basle

HAM* 6 BAS* 4 BRN 4 DZA* 1 REN 1

Matchday 4 (next week), is Idle versus First team, Second versus Third. Matchday 5 (three weeks hence) is this week's Fourth against Second, Third against Idle.
In A, Larissa is out, and AZ can finish the qualifying with a win at Nürnburg next week.
In B, Panathanaikos qualified after just two matches; the key tie is looking like Aberdeen - Køvenhaben in the final round.
In C, most arrangements of qualifiers are possible: Boleslav - AEK next week should help to cut down the possibilities, but only if there's a winner.
In D, Hamburg will qualify with a draw against Zagreb, and that will take the winner of Basel - Brann through.

Group E of Goal Difference
Sparta Prague - Spartak Moscow 0:0
    FC Zurich - Toulouse       2:0
Idle: Bayer Leverkusen

ZUR* 6 SPM* 4 PRG 4 BYL* 3 TOU 0

Group F of Bayern
Bolton - Aris Thessaloniki 1:1
 Braga - Bayern München    1:1 (15)
Idle: Crvena Zvedza

BAY 5 ASS* 4 BOL 3 BRG* 2 CRZ* 0

Group G of Winners
Tottenham - AaB Alborg      3:2
   Getafe - Hapoel Tel Aviv 1:2 (45)
Idle: Anderlecht

TOT 6 AND* 3 HTA 3 GET* 2 AAL* 1

Group H of Upsets
Helsingborgs - Austia Wien 3:0
   Panionios - Galatasaray 0:3
Idle: Bordeaux

HEL 7 BDX* 6 GAL 3 PIO* 1 AWI* 0

Toulouse did lose, and are out of the contest: other than that, E is too close to call.
Draws in F will help no-one, and we're suddenly scenting the remote possibility of cup favourites Bayern falling out of the contest at the group phase: for this to happen, Bolton needs to beat Crvena Zvedza next week.
G should be decided by next week's Anderlecht - Tottenham match: a draw will suffice for the North London side.
H will be decided in Bordeaux next week: a clear winner will take the group, a draw will put both through to the next round.

Next week's matches

Friday
1930 Set1 Hansa Rostock -v- Hannover

Saturday
0110 Set2 CF America -v- Arsenal Argentina
1200 Set1 Hearts -v- Celtic
1715 Set1 Aston Villa -v- Arsenal
1940 Set2 Benfica -v- Porto
1945 Set1 SPL Goals (highlights)
2145 Set2 Werder Bremen -v- Hamburg (tape)
2230 BBC1 Match of the Day (highlights)

Sunday
0925 ITV  The Division II (highlights, not Scotland)
1020 HTV  The Divisions III and IV
1130 BBC2 Euro '08 draw
1330 Set2 Ajax -v- NAC Breda
1330 BBC1 Harrogate Railway -v- Mansfield
  Followed by the Round 6 draw.
1400 C5   An Italian game
1400 Set1 Aberdeen -v- Hibernians
1700 Set2 Valenciennes -v- Rennes
1900 Set1 Salisbury -v- Aldershot
2000 Set2 Lyon -v- Strasbourg
2200 BBC2 Match of the Day 2 (highlights)

Monday
0300 Set1 Arminia Bielefeld -v- Bayern München (tape)
2000 Set1 Manchester Buccaneers -v- Fulham
2000 Rang Rangers -v- Kilmarnock (tape)

Tuesday
0015 Liv  Liverpool -v- Bolton (tape)
1945 STV  AC Milan -v- Celtic

Wednesday
1945 ITV4 Everton -v- Zenit St Petersburg

Thursday
1115 ESPT Villarreal -v- Elfsborg (highlights)
1200 ESPT Nürnburg -v- AZ Alkmaar (highlights)
1930 C5   Anderlecht -v- Tottenham
1945 Set1 Kidderminster -v- Cambridge

Friday
0830 ESPT Bayer Leverkusen -v- Sparta Prague (highlights)
0930 ESPT Shakhtar Donetsk -v- Benfica (highlights)

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