Starting with the Tuesday matches:

Group E of Near Death

   Schalke 04 - Fenerbahce 2:0
PSV Eindhoven - Milan AC   1:0

Group F

Rosenborg BK - Real Madrid        0:2
  Olympiakos - Olympique Lyonnais 1:4

Group G For England

 Liverpool - Anderlecht 3:0
Real Betis - Chelsea    1:0

Group H

Internazionale - Porto   2:1
      Artmedia - Rangers 2:2

Lyon and Real Madrid have qualified from group F, the only question is if Olympiakos can possibly catch Rosenborg for third. PSV move top of group E, knocking AC Milan down to second. Fenerbahce's defeat leaves them a point behind Schalke, but a win could change everything. Liverpool move clear atop G, while Anderlecht need a miracle to progress. Finally, Rangers have the better of their draws against Artmedia; one win in the two remaining games will almost certainly put them into the UEFA Cup, two will see them through.

Wednesday saw the fourth match for Arsenal and the Manchester Buccaneers. By this time, one of these sides would be qualified already, the other would be looking nervously over their shoulder...

Group A

Juventus - Bayern Munich 2:1
  Bruges - Rapid Vienna  3:2

Group B

FC Thun - Ajax          2:4
Arsenal - Sparta Prague 3:0

Group C

    Barcelona - Panathinaikos 5:0
Werder Bremen - Udinese       4:3

Group D Of Death

  Lille - Manchester Buccs 1:0
Benfica - Villarreal       0:1

Group A is looking done and dusted; Rapid Vienna are out, and it would take a surprising turn of events for Bruges to come from behind and snatch second. The head-to-head between Juve and Bayern is inconclusive, both teams picked up a 2:1 win. Arsenal have qualified from group B, and need only a draw in their final match against Ajax to top the group - and that's if they lose to Thun first. Ajax looks set to finish second. Group C is a mess: Barca are top on 10 points, everyone else has 4. Barca can finish in a three-way melange on 10, but the tie-breaks ensure they would qualify. And Group D Of Death is living up to the name we gave it about ten seconds after the draw finished. Villarreal and Lille jump up two places to head the group; MB and Benfica fall down. The prospect of the Buccs falling into the UEFA Cup is non-trivial, and probably provides them with the best hope for some silverware this year.

The betting - we went for Bayern, Rosenborg, and Porto, all lost.

In the UEFA Cup itself, here are the results:

Group A
      Hamburg - Viking     2:0
Slavia Prague - CSKA Sofia 4:2

Group B
Brondby - Maccabi Petach Tikva 2:0
Palermo - Lokomotiv Moscow     0:0

Group C
     Lens - Halmstads        5:0
Sampdoria - Steaua Bucharest 0:0

Group D
Liteks Lovetch - Grasshoppers 2:1
 Middlesbrough - Dnipro       3:0

Group E
Red Star Belgrade - Basle  1:2
       Strasbourg - Tromso 2:0

Group F
  Heerenveen - CSKA Moscow      0:0
Levski Sofia - Dinamo Bucharest 1:0

Group G
Rapid Bucharest - Rennes           2:0
      Stuttgart - Shakhtar Donetsk 0:2

Group H
 Bolton - Zenit St Petersburg 1:0
Sevilla - Besiktas            3:0

Two matches were really big in their own right - Seville's win against Bestiktas had its merits, but all eyes were on Stuttgart, where Shakhtar took a surprise win. Their next opponents will be Dinamo Kyiv, and they'll be playing for the title, so no pressure. The other Ukranians, Dnipro, surrendered rather more tamely than we expected against Middlesbrough. Defending champions CSKA Moscow suffered a surprising draw, which does leave them in trouble.

In terms of progression, Middlesbrough and Shakhtar may well have done enough already to qualify, and Stuttgart and Hamburg can't be too far off. For double-losers CSKA Sofia, Maccabi Tikva, Halmstads, Grasshoppers, Dnipro, Tromso and Rennes, the road could be very steep.

As well as the Ukrainian League Decider (which takes place at 4pm on Monday, a curious time for a huge match), it's the First Round Proper of the FA Cup. The nationally-televised match is Chasetown v Oldham (1pm Sunday, BBC-1). The last time Oldham were on the telly, it was the 1994 Cup Semi-final, and for twelve glorious minutes, it looked like they would put out Manchester United and deny them the double. Then United equalised to take the game to a replay, and Oldham never recovered, going down to Division II at the end of the season, dropping to the Third some years later, and not looking like exiting from either end. Chasetown play in the Midland Combination, a Division IX league, and will receive their largest pay-day thanks to the national television coverage. An obscure satellite channel also has rights to the cup, they will apparently be showing Merthyr Tydfil (Div VII S) v Walsall (Div III) from 7.30 to-night.

Betting for this week-end's matches:

Newcastle - Birmingham (5.80/3.40)
Livingston - Hibernians (5.20/3.60)
Falkirk - Celtic (8.80/4.50)

Birmingham should be outsiders, but not 5/1 outsiders. Similarly, Livingston should be around 3.50, and I do like the odds for a draw. Falkirk should also be around 3.50, and the way the Scottish Division A is going this year, one of them might come up. -3.8 on 21 bet so far this month, so a win and a draw puts us in profit for the period.

Next: the complete tables at the November international week.

linkpage | BettingEuropeanResults |

The week's big matches, and we begin with the upsets involving last week's top thirty:

#8 Miami Florida 27 vs. #3 Virginia Tech 7 (32)
#5 UCLA 14 vs. Arizona 52 (46)
#10 Wisconsin 14 vs. #15 Penn St. 35 (27)
#21 Boston College 14 vs. North Carolina 16 (31)

Indeed, two of last week's top five were knocked off their perches. It's no particular shame for Virginiatech to lose to Miamiflorida, this was the week's big match. For UCLA to go down to 74-th ranked Arizona, though, is the biggest upset of the season so far. Lest we forget, Arizona knocked off Oregon State last week, and has climbed from 94 to 57 in a fortnight.

Other matches between top-30 sides:

#25 California 20 vs. #18 Oregon 27
#30 Stanford 21 vs. #1 Southern Cal 51

Of the other sides in last week's top 10, #2 Texas thumped Baylor 62-0, #4 LSU and #6 Georgia had a week off, #7 Texastech beat Texasam 56-17, and #9 Alabama beat Mississippistate 17-0. There are four void matches on your coupons this week:

X- New Mexico St. 6 vs. #28 Boise St. 56
X- Illinois 2 vs. #17 Ohio St. 40
X- Temple 3 vs. Virginia 51
X- San Jose St. 7 vs. Fresno St. 45

Which means that 117th San Jose St, and 115th Temple, won't be losing any more points this week. Aren't we kind? Here's the definitive countdown, the Top Thirty NCAAball teams this week:

LW   TW          Conf  Rating  RD    Idle
=============================================================
 1    1   SCALF   PX   1538   152.2   0   Southern California
 2    2   TEXAS   BT   1485   113.7   0   Texas
 3    3   VTECH   AC   1381   127.7   0   Virginia Tech
 4    4   LSU     SE   1375   140.1   2   LSU
 8    5   MIAFL   AC   1361   130.5   0   Miami-Florida
 7    6   TXSTC   BT   1328   132.0   0   Texas Tech
 6    7   GRGIA   SE   1307   138.6   1   Georgia
 9    8   ALABM   SE   1297   133.6   0   Alabama
13    9   TCU     MW*  1286   124.2   0   TCU
15   10   PENST   BX   1283   120.8   0   Penn State
14   11   WVIRG   BE   1273   130.5   0   W Virginia
18   12   OREGN   PX   1271   126.8   0   Oregon
12   13   AUBRN   SE   1269   141.4   0   Auburn
 5   14   UCLA    PX   1267   122.0   0   UCLA
16   15   GEOTC   AC   1257   129.7   0   Georgia Tech
10   16   WISCO   BX   1240   119.1   0   Wisconsin
17   17   OHIST   BX   1236   120.6   1   Ohio State
19   18   MICH    BX   1234   114.8   1   Michigan
20   19   OKLAH   BT   1230   123.3   1   Oklahoma
24   20   NOTDM   XX   1228   123.9   0   Notre Dame
23   21   LSVLE   BE   1222   132.2   0   Louisville
22   22   FLORD   SE   1219   131.0   0   Florida
11   23   FLAST   AC   1193   131.1   0   Florida State
26   24   UTEP    CU*  1193   130.0   0   UTEP
27   25   COLRD   BT   1188   117.1   0   Colorado
21   26   BOSCL   AC   1171   122.5   0   Boston College
29   27   NWSTN   BX   1167   114.8   0   Northwestern
36   28   NCARO   AC   1159   119.4   0   N Carolina
31   29   ARZST   PX   1142   118.8   0   Arizona State
28   30   BSEST   WA*  1138   138.4   1   Boise State

If the BCS were a fair and just ranking system, it would be rather quivering at the prospect of having to give TCU a shot at one of the top-four bowl games. But it's not, of which more anon. The two drop-outs are California (25-31) and Stanford (30-35).

The full results from the upset-o-meter:

#5 UCLA 14 vs. Arizona 52 (46)
 N.C. State 20 vs. #11 Florida St. 15 (41)
 Fla. International 31 vs. Louisiana-Monroe 29 (41)
 Michigan St. 21 vs. Purdue 28 (34)
#8 Miami Florida 27 vs. #3 Virginia Tech 7 (32)
 Louisiana-Lafayette 31 vs. North Texas 28 (32)
 UAB 37 vs. Memphis 20 (32)
#21 Boston College 14 vs. North Carolina 16 (31)
 Army 27 vs. Air Force 24 (31)
 Nebraska 15 vs. Kansas 40 (30)
 Akron 17 vs. Ball St. 23 (29)
 N. Illinois 31 vs. Cent. Michigan 28 (28)
 Houston 29 vs. UCF 31 (28)
#10 Wisconsin 14 vs. #15 Penn St. 35 (27)
 Arkansas St. 7 vs. Middle Tennessee 45 (27)

Two games of particular interest: Army beats Air Force to keep alive their hopes of winning the Inter-Forces Cup; and the grudge match at Ypsilanti ended with the visiting Western Michigan side beating their Eastern Michigan rivals 44-36. Emich now drops to position 110, with an appropriate level of shame and dishonour for all their students.

Which conferences are we rattling on about this week?

The "Big" "Ten"

LW   TW          Conf  Rating  RD    Idle
========================================================
15   10   PENST   BX   1283   120.8   0   Penn State
10   16   WISCO   BX   1240   119.1   0   Wisconsin
17   17   OHIST   BX   1236   120.6   1   Ohio State
19   18   MICH    BX   1234   114.8   1   Michigan
29   27   NWSTN   BX   1167   114.8   0   Northwestern
35   32   MINNS   BX   1132   118.2   0   Minnesota
34   41   IOWA    BX   1076   121.1   0   Iowa
44   54   MICST   BX   1033   114.6   0   Michigan State
71   61   PRDUE   BX    984   117.7   0   Purdue
73   80   INDAN   BX    900   121.8   0   Indiana
90   87   ILLNS   BX    850   126.9   1   Illinois

Not a great deal to split the top four of this eleven-team league, and a couple of other teams are clearly in contention. The official ranking is all-against-all, and shows Pennstate a game clear of Ohiostate, with Wisconsin just behind. Seven of the eleven will make the post-season payouts.

The South-East

LW   TW          Conf  Rating  RD    Idle
============================================================
 4    4   LSU     SE   1375   140.1   2   LSU
 6    7   GRGIA   SE   1307   138.6   1   Georgia
 9    8   ALABM   SE   1297   133.6   0   Alabama
12   13   AUBRN   SE   1269   141.4   0   Auburn
22   22   FLORD   SE   1219   131.0   0   Florida
45   36   SCARO   SE   1103   120.7   0   S Carolina
47   53   TENSE   SE   1035   125.8   0   Tennessee
77   75   MISIP   SE    903   131.3   1   Mississippi
72   81   ARKNS   SE    898   139.6   0   Arkansas
76   82   VNDRB   SE    896   129.0   0   Vanderbilt
103  104  MSPST   SE    760   133.2   0   Mississippi State
107  108  KNTCY   SE    740   140.3   0   Kentucky

A clear split between the haves and the have-nots, with only Southcarolina and Tennessee caught in the middle. Kentucky at least avoids the dishonour of being the last BCS side in the rankings; that fell to Duke when Kentucky won their game last week.

Georgia heads the east division, half a game clear of Florida; Alabama's a game clear of Auburn in the west division. The LSU's one defeat came to one of their co-conference sides, so they're a game-and-a-half behind Alabama. Eight of the twelve sides could make the jackpot games.

It's worth a moment looking at the teams undefeated, or with just the single defeat, at this stage of the season:

Rcd  TW          Conf  Rating  RD    Idle
=============================================================
8-0   1   SCALF   PX   1538   152.2   0   Southern California
8-0   2   TEXAS   BT   1485   113.7   0   Texas
8-0   3   VTECH   AC   1381   127.7   0   Virginia Tech
8-0   8   ALABM   SE   1297   133.6   0   Alabama
8-0  14   UCLA    PX   1267   122.0   0   UCLA

8-1   9   TCU     MW*  1286   124.2   0   TCU
8-1  10   PENST   BX   1283   120.8   0   Penn State
8-1  16   WISCO   BX   1240   119.1   0   Wisconsin

7-1   6   TXSTC   BT   1328   132.0   0   Texas Tech
7-1   7   GRGIA   SE   1307   138.6   1   Georgia
7-1  12   OREGN   PX   1271   126.8   0   Oregon
7-1  23   FLAST   AC   1193   131.1   0   Florida State

6-1   4   LSU     SE   1375   140.1   2   LSU
6-1   5   MIAFL   AC   1361   130.5   0   Miami-Florida
6-1  11   WVIRG   BE   1273   130.5   0   W Virginia
6-1  24   UTEP    CU*  1193   130.0   0   UTEP
6-1  34   FRSST   WA*  1120   143.2   2   Fresno State

Now, what do our so-called rivals in the BCS have to say for themselves? Scalf still heads Texas, though two of the computer polls manage to put Pennstate in second place (!) They're up to fifth, Alabama are third, Miafl fourth, with Vtech and LSU down in sixth and seventh. TCU (17th) and Texastech (12th) are particularly heavy losers, both thanks to some poor human polling. Proof, as if we needed it, that the BCS is a survey of which teams are fashionable, rather than which are demonstrably the best.

linkpage | NCAA |

The big news in England: Chelsea Beaten Again! Manchester's Buccaneers inflicted the first league defeat in a year on the champions, who have now lost three matches out of their last four in all competitions. Everton took another giant step towards safety with a 1:0 win over Middlesbrough, but it's Wigan who remain in a surreal second place, after taking a win at Portsmouth.

Match of the day in Division II saw Sheffield Utd win 3:2 at Crystal Palace; Reading also won, and both sides pull even further away from the rest of the league.

Leading upsets:

• Manchester B - Chelsea 1:0 (39)
• Fulham - Manchester C 2:1 (35)
• Everton - Middlesbrough 1:0 (35)
• Luton - Burnley 2:3 (31)
• Sheffield W - Derby 2:1 (31)

The big match on the continent ended Shakhtar Donetsk - Dinamo Kyiv 1:2, so Kyiv finish the first half of the season atop the table, two points clear of their perpetual rivals.

Almost a complete set of tables this week, but Scotland's will emerge after the League Cup matches over the next two days. Starting with

English League, Division I

CHE   1238   85.7   -73
ANL   1164   83.5   -13
MUN   1111   83.3   -43
BOL   1109   81.8    64
LIV   1092   80.6   -16
TOT   1018   85.4    11
WIG   1015   85.8    64
BLK   1005   84.8    30
MCY   1002   86.3   -10
NWC   1000   84.0    24
MID    997   80.9     7
CHA    974   85.7   -11
WHM    938   83.9    -3
FUL    928   84.5    49
EVE    927   86.3    37
POR    907   85.6    46
AVL    902   85.1   -12
BIR    869   83.9   -62
WBA    860   84.8    -8
SUN    812   87.8   -53

Good months for Bolton and Wigan will surprise no-one, while Chelsea's slide is mainly due to two defeats and a draw against decent opposition. Birmingham and Sunderland have had poor months.

Division II

REA   898   77.3    45
SFU   886   77.1    29
CPL   844   79.4    -5
SOT   815   79.4    -6
WAT   794   76.8    50
LEE   793   77.4     2
WLV   791   77.7   -33
PNE   769   78.0    16
LEI   753   78.5    39
CDF   747   77.8   -16
LUT   736   87.0  -102
IPS   723   78.3   -25
BNL   722   76.6     1
QPR   721   78.6     8
NOR   720   77.1   -71
STK   695   78.5    14
DER   688   78.4   -40
COV   675   79.6   -14
CRW   669   78.9    58
SFW   666   89.8    59
MIL   653   76.9   -50
BRI   637   79.6    12
HUL   634   88.1     4
PLY   598   80.1     8

Why do Reading head Sheffield U here? Because they beat them in the League Cup a couple of weeks back. Luton's start was too good to last, Norwich continue to disappoint, but Southampton have stabilised, and Crewe and Sheffield Weds are beginning to impress.

Spanish League, Primera Division

BAR   1234    83.8    40
OSA   1186   108.9    71
RMD   1163    84.7     4
VIL   1126    86.7    40
SEV   1096    91.1    74
DEP   1085    88.7    28
CVG   1057   105.1   -45
SOC   1056    96.1    60
VAL   1054    94.1   -11
GET   1043   111.1  -128
BET   1042    88.5   -18
AMD   1016   104.5    48
ZAR    996    94.1   -81
MAL    985    95.0    58
MGA    967   110.4    32
CAD    966   110.4   -14
ESP    959   100.9   -55
SAN    949   110.0    -8
ABL    938    93.8   -34
ALA    904   108.6   -17

Barcelona continue to stretch their lead, with the unlikely Osasuna catching up. Early leaders Getafe have fallen rather behind.

The rest of Europe

Austria

GRA   897   117.5   GRAZER
AWI   828   124.9   AUSTRIA VIENNA
RAP   774   127.3   RAPID VIENNA

Belgium

BRU   801   106.2   BRUGGE
LIE   787   146.3   LIEGE
AND   749   116.5   ANDERLECHT
BEV   530   137.2   BEVEREN

Bulgaria

LIT   834   177.3   LITEKS LOVECH
LSF   786   155.7   LEVSKI SOFIA
CSS   666   161.7   CSKA SOFIA

Switzerland

BAS   917   135.2   BASEL
GRZ   739   148.6   GRASSHOPPERS ZURICH
THU   638   124.8   THUN

Czechia

SLP   984   161.3   SLAVIA PRAGUE
TEP   893   151.2   TEPLICE
PRG   693   113.6   SPARTA PRAGUE

Germany

BAY  1172    97.6   BAYERN MUNICH
SNV  1082   101.8   SCHALKE 04
HAM  1080   141.6   HAMBURG
WER   995    97.9   WERDER BREMEN
STT   959   107.7   STUTTGART
HER   945   149.7   HERTHA BERLIN
BYL   924   116.1   BAYER LEVERKUSEN
AAA   837   171.3   ALAMENIA AACHEN

Denmark

BRO   848   177.3   BRONDBY

France

LYN  1227    92.2   LYON
AUX  1034   102.6   AUXERRE
BDX  1013   110.1   BORDEAUX
MAR  1010   100.8   MARSEILLE
LIL   986    97.0   LILLE
PSG   950   110.4   PARIS ST GERMAIN
MON   923    97.4   MONACO
SCX   887   106.9   SOCHAUX
STR   825   140.1   STRASBOURG
LEN   805   152.7   LENS
REN   735   138.9   RENNES

Georgia

TIB   512   194.1   DINAMO TIBLISI

Greece

OLY   976    99.9   OLYMPIAKOS
PAN   939   105.2   PANATHANAIKOS
PAO   900   142.8   PAOK SALONIKA
AEK   845   110.4   AEK ATHENS
AIG   722   139.7   AIGAELIO
ASS   659   154.7   ARIS SALONIKA
PIO   562   117.9   PANIONIOS

Croatia

DZA   780   190.3   DYNAMO ZAGREB


Hungary

FER   825   194.7   FERENCVAROS

Israel

MPT   601   161.7   MACCABI PETAH-TIKVA
MTA   738   188.7   MACCABI TEL-AVIV

Italy

ACM  1252    96.2   AC MILAN
JVE  1189    94.0   JUVENTUS
INT  1043    89.7   INTER MILAN
SAM   900   141.0   SAMPDORIA
UDI   899   111.1   UDINESE
ROM   897   117.5   ROMA
LAZ   877   114.3   LAZIO
PAR   869   117.4   PARMA
PER   854   189.2   PERUGIA
PAL   823   134.0   PALERMO

Netherlands

PSV  1159    96.4   PSV EINDHOVEN
AZA  1003   113.5   AZ ALKMAAR
AJX   883    98.6   AJAX
FEY   847   125.6   FEYENOORD
HEE   821   107.4   HEERENVEEN
UTR   731   131.7   UTRECHT

Norway

ROS   897   112.5   ROSENBORG
VIK   747   138.5   VIKING STAVANGER
TRO   728   138.6   TROMSO
VRG   664   129.9   VALARENGEN

Poland

AMI   951   188.0   AMICA WRONKI
GRO   777   188.2   GROCLIN GRODZISK

Portugal

SLS   979   123.8   SPORTING LISBON
BEN   911   109.0   BENFICA
PTO   906   117.1   PORTO
GUI   657   162.2   GUIMARES

Romania

STE   910   115.9   STEAUA BUCHAREST
RBU   842   171.6   RAPID BUCHAREST
DIB   685   161.7   DINAMO BUCHAREST

Russia

CSK   939   112.5   CSKA MOSCOW
LOK   939   142.8   LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW
ZSP   884   125.8   ZENIT ST PETERSBURG

Sweden

HAL   704   161.7   HALMSTADS

Slovakia

ART   831   142.1   ARTMEDIA BRATISLAVA

Turkey

BES  1001   127.7   BESTIKTAS
FEN   948   115.7   FENERBACHE
GEN   878   155.6   GENCENBIRGILI

Ukraine

KYV  1029   136.0   DINAMO KYIV
SHA   990   114.0   SHAKTAR DONETSK
DNI   786   122.9   DNIPRO

Serbia and Montenegro

PBG   796   146.1   PARTISAN BELGRADE
RSB   782   161.0   RED STAR BELGRADE

Stories here - the decline of Ajax and Sparta Prague, the rise of Hamburg, PSV and AZ, the continued success of AC and Juve, and Greece still underperforming slightly. These sides have increased their ranking by half an RD or more this month:

HAMBURG   1.8
LILLE   0.9
PSV EINDHOVEN   0.9
RAPID BUCHAREST   0.8
ROMA   0.7
SAMPDORIA   0.7
BRUGGE   0.6
BENFICA   0.6
AEK ATHENS   0.6
SLAVIA PRAGUE   0.5

And these have gone down by a similar amount:

PARTISAN BELGRADE   -0.5
AUSTRIA VIENNA   -0.5
LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW   -0.6
CSKA SOFIA   -0.6
OLYMPIAKOS   -0.6
GUIMARES   -0.6
MACCABI PETAH-TIKVA   -0.6
PARIS ST GERMAIN   -0.7
MONACO   -0.7
UDINESE   -0.7
INTER MILAN   -0.8
THUN   -0.8
GRAZER   -0.9

Europe's First Eleven:

ACM   1252   96.2
CHE   1238   85.7
BAR   1234   83.8
LYN   1227   92.2
JVE   1189   94.0
OSA   1186  108.9
BAY   1172   97.6
ANL   1164   83.5
RMD   1163   84.7
PSV   1159   96.4
VIL   1126   86.7

Finally, the betting. A goalkeeping blunder allowed Newcastle a lucky 1:0 win at Birmingham, Nibs came from behind to beat Livingston 2:1, and Celtic trounced Falkirk 4:0. 0/3 on the week-end. We do have one bet for the mid-week: Dunfermline over Hibs in the League Cup. Results, and the Scottish tables, next time out.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Two items of interest this mid-week. Celtic, Dunfermline, Motherwell, and Livingston (after extra time) will compete in the semi-finals of the Scottish League Cup. The Scottish Division A standings, therefore:

CEL  1059   90.0    40
HRT   895   84.3    17
RAN   888   81.6   -47
HBS   846   81.7    44
MTW   846   82.9    27
ABD   765   82.1   -38
ICT   751   82.1   -12
FAL   708   99.1    21
KLM   708   83.2   -45
DDU   695   83.6   - 2
LVG   658   84.1     8
DNF   629   84.4   -29

There's pressure on Rangers to find a new manager, even though they could still become European champions, but no vacancy at Kilmarnock.

Dunfermline's win added +5.25 to the betting pot, but it still finishes October-November at -3.05 on 27 units bet. The breakdown by division is as follows:

         staked   won
this mth   27   -3.05
england I  16.5  0.15
eng II      6    4.95
scot A     15    1.25
uk cups     1.5 -1.50
spain       3    9.75
europe      6   -3.60

total      48   11.00

+11 on 48 bet? That's not bad. Not bad at all.

Also, the pools for the Euro 2008 draw have been announced. They're based on performance in qualifying for Euro '04 and WC '06, and at the Euro '04 finals.

Pool 1: Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, England, Czechia Republic, France, Sweden
Pool 2: Germany, Croatia, Italy, Turkey, Poland, Spain, Romania
Pool 3: Serbia-Montenegro, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Slovakia Pool 4: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Latvia, Israel, Scotland, Slovenia Pool 5: Hungary, Finland, Estonia, Wales, Lithuania, Albania, Iceland Pool 6: Georgia, Macedonia, Belarus, Armenia, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Moldova Pool 7: Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan, Andorra, Malta, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, San Marino.

One from each pool will go into each group, and one group will feature two from pool 7. Greece have been promoted from pool 2, as they're defending champions, which means Germany and Italy will be dangerous floaters. So will Ukraine down in pool 3, while no-one will want to draw Bosnia or Latvia in pool 4. The draw itself will take place in the new year.

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

While not particularly important for qualification, this week-end's friendlies have provided some useful pointers for who might be seeded at next year's World Cup. Hosts Germany and defending champions Brazil will be seeded, and we know the FIFA rankings and performance at recent world cups will be taken into consideration. We also know that it will all be tweaked and fixed to give a "sensible" result.

If we were to go strictly by FIFA's rankings, the next six as of last month were Netherlands, Czechia, Argentina, France, Mexico, and the FARCE. The Dutch will be pegged back because they missed the 2002 finals, the Czechs may not be in the tournament at all, and any attempt to seed both Mexico and the FARCE will be laughed out of court by all concerned. Argentina and France were both embarrassingly early exits last time out. Spain, England, and Portugal lurk in positions 8-10 - Spain and Portugal left early in 02, England made the quarters; with Turkey, Italy, Sweden, and Denmark close behind. Realistically, it's perm 6 of those 13 countries.

Might we look for pointers from recent results? The Czechs beat Norway in their play-off, England beat Argentina, France beat Costa Rica (amazingly, ranked 20th according to FIFA) and drew with Germany. The FARCE drew 0:0 in lowly Scotland, Spain trounced Slovakia, Portugal beat Croatia. Turkey - semi-finalists last time out - lost to Switzerland in their play-off, Italy beat the Netherlands, and Sweden drew with Korea (S).

On this form, we'd argue for the Netherlands, Argentina, and France to take seedings. Czechia would take one if they join the contest, and England should get one based on their good form four years ago. If Turkey join the party, they would probably deserve seeding, but this would open up an argument with the other defeated semi-finalists, Korea (S). Spain will surely be there, and have a strong case to be seeded; Portugal or Mexico would be the fall-back position in the event of an amazing Slovak comeback. Italy, one suspects, will not be seeded.

linkpage | |

Quite the week of upsets this week. We start, as we surely must, with the match between the two sides with perfect records at NCAAball this season. One must fail to lose this match.

#119 Buffalo 10 vs. #118 Kent St. 6 (26)

Yes, Buffalo has picked up its first win of the season, beating Kent State in a match described by USA Toady as "dull." The bottom ten makes for entertaining reading:

Last This         Cnf  Rating  RD   Idle
================================================================
112   110   DUKE    AC   702   136.9   1   Duke
110   111   EMICH   MA   700   113.3   0   East Mich
111   112   NMXST   WA   694   124.3   0   New Mexico State
109   113   TULNE   CU   685   119.2   0   Tulane
116   114   FLATL   SB   679   122.2   0   Florida Atlantic
113   115   FLINT   SB   648   130.9   0   Florida International
115   116   TEMPL   XX   634   134.2   2   Temple
117   117   SNJST   WA   603   135.4   2   San Jose State
119   118   BUFFL   MA   548   129.9   0   Buffalo
118   119   KENTS   MA   494   123.8   0   Kent State

Can anyone now stop Kent State from winning this year's Worst Team Of The Year Award, awarded yearly on a year-by-worst-team basis? If they do, it'll be the first win the Glicko system has recorded for them.

On to slightly more trivial matters, and those sides utterly rubbish at losing. Matches between last week's top 30 tell only part of the story...

#4 LSU 16 vs. #8 Alabama 13
#13 Auburn 31 vs. #7 Georgia 30 (25)
#29 Arizona St. 35 vs. #14 UCLA 45
#27 Northwestern 7 vs. #17 Ohio St. 48

...because there were a lot of upsets involving top 30 sides...

#6 Texas Tech 17 vs. Oklahoma St. 24 (46)
#15 Georgia Tech 17 vs. Virginia 27 (34)
 Iowa 20 vs. #16 Wisconsin 10 (35)
#22 Florida 22 vs. South Carolina 30 (31)
#23 Florida St. 14 vs. Clemson 35 (33)
#25 Colorado 16 vs. #33 Iowa St. 30 (28)
 Maryland 33 vs. #28 North Carolina 30 (30)
#30 Boise St. 7 vs. #34 Fresno St. 27 (24)

Of the rest of last week's top ten...

X- Kansas 14 vs. #2 Texas 66
#5 Miami 47 vs. Wake Forest 17
 UNLV 3 vs. #9 TCU 51

That match at Texas is the only void one this week; #3 Virginiatech and #10 Pennstate had the bye, which must be painful. All of this surprise and upset leaves the lower rankings looking like they've had a run in with Mr James Bond:

LW   TW          Cnf  Rating   RD   Idle
=============================================================
 1    1   SCALF   PX   1550   148.2   0   Southern California
 2    2   TEXAS   BT   1485   113.7   1   Texas
 4    3   LSU     SE   1412   133.0   0   LSU
 3    4   VTECH   AC   1381   127.7   1   Virginia Tech
 5    5   MIAFL   AC   1371   128.0   0   Miami-Florida
13    6   AUBRN   SE   1320   133.0   0   Auburn
14    7   UCLA    PX   1292   117.1   0   UCLA
 9    8   TCU     MW*  1291   123.4   0   TCU
11    9   WVIRG   BE   1287   126.9   0   W Virginia
10   10   PENST   BX   1283   120.8   1   Penn State
12   11   OREGN   PX   1282   124.2   0   Oregon
17   12   OHIST   BX   1266   115.9   0   Ohio State
 8   13   ALABM   SE   1263   126.8   0   Alabama
 7   14   GRGIA   SE   1257   131.2   0   Georgia
19   15   OKLAH   BT   1255   118.8   0   Oklahoma
21   16   LSVLE   BE   1247   126.3   0   Louisville
 6   17   TXSTC   BT   1247   129.9   0   Texas Tech
20   18   NOTDM   XX   1246   119.8   0   Notre Dame
18   19   MICH    BX   1244   113.5   0   Michigan
15   20   GEOTC   AC   1199   124.3   0   Georgia Tech
26   21   BOSCL   AC   1196   117.6   0   Boston College
24   22   UTEP    CU*  1193   130.0   1   UTEP
16   23   WISCO   BX   1190   114.9   0   Wisconsin
34   24   FRSST   WA*  1170   135.0   0   Fresno State
22   25   FLORD   SE   1165   124.7   0   Florida
32   26   MINNS   BX   1158   113.5   0   Minnesota
35   27   STANF   PX   1157   121.6   0   Stanford
33   28   IWAST   BT   1154   117.1   0   Iowa State
25   29   COLRD   BT   1149   112.4   0   Colorado
36   30   SCARO   SE   1149   116.0   0   S Carolina

The five drop-outs are Northwestern (27-32), Floridastate (23-33), Arizonastate (29-37), Northcarolina (28-38), and Boisestate (30-41). The top two should be locked in, but a defeat for Texas could allow one of the three sides below them to challenge. It'll take a second loss for Southerncalifornia to miss out on the title game, surely. TCU need other results to go their way if they're to make the top 6 and have a moral claim to a BCS payday - the remaining schedule wouldn't lift them above Auburn.

For the last two weeks, we've been cheering on Arizona in their one-team campaign to drive an applecart through the rankings. This week, they played Washington, ranked #107, and slumped to defeat. Let no-one say that Arizona hasn't played its fair share in shaping the rankings at both ends of the NCAAball table. Here's the full results from the upset-o-meter.

#6 Texas Tech 17 vs. Oklahoma St. 24 (46)
 Washington 38 vs. Arizona 14 (39)
 San Diego St. 30 vs. Colorado St. 10 (37)
 Iowa 20 vs. #16 Wisconsin 10 (35)
 North Texas 23 vs. Florida Atlantic 26 (35)
#15 Georgia Tech 17 vs. Virginia 27 (34)
#23 Florida St. 14 vs. Clemson 35 (33)
 Kentucky 48 vs. Vanderbilt 43 (33)
#22 Florida 22 vs. South Carolina 30 (31)
 Maryland 33 vs. #28 North Carolina 30 (30)
#25 Colorado 16 vs. #33 Iowa St. 30 (28)
 Cent. Michigan 24 vs. W. Michigan 31 (28)
 Tulane 34 vs. Rice 42 (28)
#13 Auburn 31 vs. #7 Georgia 30 (25)
#30 Boise St. 7 vs. #34 Fresno St. 27 (24)

We note that Westernmichigan continues its run to become the prime compass points within the province; sadly, a game against the reigning champions, (That Huge Concrete Erection A Few Miles West Of Eastern) Michigan, cannot be arranged this season.

Enough silliness, on with the show. What conferences are we looking at this week?

The CU Jimmy

LW   TW          Cnf  Rating   RD   Idle
=============================================================
24   22   UTEP    CU   1193   130.0   1   UTEP
60   56   TULSA   CU   1011   115.3   0   Tulsa
67   62   SMISS   CU    980   121.7   0   S Miss
70   67   UCF     CU    957   114.9   0   UCF
79   78   HOUST   CU    900   124.8   1   Houston
69   79   MEMPH   CU    898   121.1   0   Memphis
73   83   UAB     CU    870   121.8   0   UAB
83   86   MARSL   CU    855   127.7   0   Marshall
94   95   SMU     CU    819   117.7   1   SMU
93   100  ECARL   CU    805   115.2   0   E Carolina
114  109  RICE    CU    710   122.7   0   Rice
109  113  TULNE   CU    685   119.2   0   Tulane

The CU Jimmy is divided into two sub-conferences; UCF has wrapped up the eastern division, with UTEP just half a game clear of Tulsa for the western side.

The WAC

34   24   FRSST   WA   1170   135.0   0   Fresno State
30   41   BSEST   WA   1091   131.1   0   Boise State
56   51   LSATC   WA   1032   117.4   0   Louisiana Tech
62   60   NEVDA   WA    992   115.9   0   Nevada
91   84   HAWII   WA    866   118.0   0   Hawaii
99   105  UTHST   WA    752   124.8   0   Utah State
106  107  IDAHO   WA    738   121.4   0   Idaho
111  112  NMXST   WA    694   124.3   0   New Mexico State
117  117  SNJST   WA    603   135.4   2   San Jose State

This is an all-against-all championship, and after defeating Boise this week, Fresno will surely clinch the title.

For most teams, there are just two weeks left; conference championship games, and some matches postponed due to the poor weather earlier in the season will take place over the first week-end of December.

Our so-called rivals at the BCS continue to make it up as they go along. Scalf and Texas remain numbers 1 and 2; Alabama slips from 3 to 8, allowing Miafl and Pennstate to climb to 3 and 4. LSU moves above Virginiatech for fifth. Auburn's win lifts them to 13th, TCU is only 14th, just ahead of Michigan. Gratuitous winners are Notre Dame - 20th on the Glicko list, 9th on the BCS nonsense, because they get lots of human votes. Fresnostate ranks 17th, almost entirely from humans - the computers, inexplicably, are ignoring the team totally.

linkpage | NCAA |

The final five qualifiers were decided yesterday.

Czechia (beat Norway 1:0 1:0)
Spain (beat Slovakia 5:1 1:1)
Switzerland (beat Turkey 2:0 on away goals, following 2:0 2:4)
Trinidad and Tobago (beat Bahrain 1:1 1:0)
Australia (beat Uruguay on penalties after 1:1 1:1)

Turkey's elimination is the most helpful matter here, the semi-finalists last time out have again fallen at the final hurdle to a team they should have beaten. Remember Latvia 03?

The top eight seeds must include Germany and Brazil. Any sensible combination of world rankings and past performance would put Argentina, England, and France top of their own groups.

The final three seeded places would logically be between Spain (who always underperform), Italy (who aren't as good as they used to be), the Netherlands and Czechia (both held back because they failed to qualify for 2002), Mexico and the FARCE (one of these would be acceptable, two would be derided.)

Personally, I'd give the nods to the Dutch, Czechs, and Mexicans.

That leaves:
9 Europeans
2 South Americans
4 Asians
3 CONCACAFites
5 Africans
1 Australia
to put into groups. Eight of the Europeans will make one group, the remaining team - and it would be best for this team to be decided at the draw, as was the case in 1998 - will muck in with those from another continent.

Just about the only impossible combination is North and South America, and I don't think there's tremendous value in guessing which continents will be combined.

The draw will be on 7 December, but appears to have completely escaped the notice of the UK television schedulers.

linkpage | Results |

In the week-end of derbies in Betis and Glasgow, and of Real Madrid - Barcelona, what three are we betting the house on?

Wigan - Arsenal (4.10/3.20). Wigan are second in Division I, Arsenal have had an iffy season and - in spite of their easy European draw - may have their minds elsewhere.
Liverpool - Portsmouth (7.10/3.90). Liverpool are OK in Europe, but not that hot in domestic competition. Portsmouth may deserve to be bottom, but a draw would be a fair return.
Hibs - Falkirk (6.00/3.90). Hibs could be playing for second, if Rangers win at Celtic, but Falkirk have made a good start in Division A.

Other teams to watch - Man City - Blackburn; Charlton - Manchester Buccaneers; Middlesbrough - Fulham.

linkpage | Betting |

A lighter programme of games than usual this week - was everyone on holiday or something - but still some significant changes. Starting with matches between last week's Top Thirty:

#13 Alabama 18 vs. #6 Auburn 28
#24 Fresno St. 42 vs. #1 Southern Cal 50
#20 Georgia Tech 14 vs. #5 Miami 10 (35)
#12 Ohio St. 25 vs. #19 Michigan 21
#15 Oklahoma 21 vs. #17 Texas Tech 23 (26)

Miamiflorida's defeat the biggest upset of the week, it ends their faint hopes of making the top two. The rest of last week's top eleven faired as follows:

#3 LSU 40 vs. Mississippi 7
#4 Virginia Tech 52 vs. Virginia 14
#10 Penn St. 31 vs. Michigan St. 22
 Oregon St. 14 vs. #11 Oregon 56

There were byes for Texas (2nd), UCLA (7), TCU (8), and Westvirginia (9). Oregonstate was ranked 45th last week, Michiganstate 57th, so Oregon will have received more points for their victory than Pennstate. There were a lot more upsets towards the foot of the thirty:

 UAB 35 vs. #22 UTEP 23 (43)
#26 Minnesota 28 vs. Iowa 52 (27)
 California 27 vs. #27 Stanford 3 (31)
 Clemson 13 vs. #30 South Carolina 9 (28)

That's going to allow a lot of the sides bubbling under the Top Thirty to enter. Three void matches on your coupons this week:

X- Kentucky 13 vs. #14 Georgia 45
X- Syracuse 10 vs. #18 Notre Dame 34
X- Duke 21 vs. North Carolina 24

No excuse for Notre Dame to host weak opposition, it's not as though they have any league fixtures to honour. It's worth while putting up the rest of the Upset-o-meter results here.

 Air Force 42 vs. New Mexico 24 (40)
 Vanderbilt 28 vs. Tennessee 24 (38)
 N. Illinois 35 vs. Toledo 17 (31)
 Missouri 28 vs. Kansas St. 36 (30)
 SMU 29 vs. Houston 24 (30)
 Memphis 24 vs. Southern Miss. 22 (30)
 New Mexico St. 10 vs. San Jose St. 27 (29)
 East Carolina 34 vs. Marshall 29 (28)
 Oklahoma St. 34 vs. Baylor 44 (27)
 Utah 41 vs. BYU 34 (27)

All of which leaves the Top Thirty looking like a bomb's hit it:

LW   TW          Conf Rating    RD   Idle
=============================================================
 1    1   SCALF   PX   1563   144.1   0   Southern California
 2    2   TEXAS   BT   1485   113.7   2   Texas
 3    3   LSU     SE   1417   132.0   0   LSU
 4    4   VTECH   AC   1399   123.9   0   Virginia Tech
 6    5   AUBRN   SE   1356   126.0   0   Auburn
 5    6   MIAFL   AC   1313   122.8   0   Miami-Florida
11    7   OREGN   PX   1301   120.0   0   Oregon
12    8   OHIST   BX   1297   111.2   0   Ohio State
10    9   PENST   BX   1297   118.2   0   Penn State
 7   10   UCLA    PX   1292   117.1   1   UCLA
 8   11   TCU     MW*  1291   123.4   1   TCU
17   12   TXSTC   BT   1289   123.1   0   Texas Tech
 9   13   WVIRG   BE   1287   126.9   1   W Virginia
14   14   GRGIA   SE   1257   131.2   1   Georgia
20   15   GEOTC   AC   1253   119.6   0   Georgia Tech
16   16   LSVLE   BE   1247   126.3   1   Louisville
18   17   NOTDM   XX   1246   119.8   1   Notre Dame
13   18   ALABM   SE   1230   120.8   0   Alabama
21   19   BOSCL   AC   1224   112.9   0   Boston College
15   20   OKLAH   BT   1220   113.8   0   Oklahoma
19   21   MICH    BX   1214   109.1   0   Michigan
23   22   WISCO   BX   1190   114.9   1   Wisconsin
35   23   CALIF   PX   1165   119.1   0   California
25   24   FLORD   SE   1165   124.7   1   Florida
34   25   IOWA    BX   1165   111.9   0   Iowa
24   26   FRSST   WA*  1159   132.1   0   Fresno State
28   27   IWAST   BT   1154   117.1   1   Iowa State
32   28   NWSTN   BX   1150   108.6   0   Northwestern
29   29   COLRD   BT   1149   112.4   1   Colorado
39   30   CLEMS   AC   1139   110.9   0   Clemson

The big bowl matches are beginning to look certain: Southerncalifornia against Texas in the top-ranking match; LSU against Virginiatech in the second (as two teams from the same conference can't play in the same match), with Oregon and Westvirginia playing each other, or some combination of Auburn and one of the sides below.

TCU won't make the top 6, but their presence in the shake-up so late in the season should be causing the BCS some anxious nights. It won't, because the computer algorithms favour large teams over small ones, and reward strength-of-opposition far too much. The Glicko algorithm factors in strength of schedule when comparing the difference between the sides, and by not reducing the RD so much when there's a big gap between sides. Look, for instance, at the RDs of Florida, who have run up their schedule with matches against the league's flotsam, and Michigan, who haven't.

It's the last Conference Update as we know it, and this week's incorporates the I Can't Believe It's Not Better review of the bottom ten.

The Midwest Alliance Conference

LW   TW          Conf Rating    RD   Idle
=============================================================
 49   63   TOLED   MA   976   133.2   0   Toledo
 73   67   NILNS   MA   964   117.7   0   N Illinois
 76   69   BOWLG   MA   945   127.6   0   Bowling Green
 82   82   WMICH   MA   883   122.3   1   West Mich
 87   83   CMICH   MA   881   109.2   0   Central Mich
 75   86   MIOHO   MA   866   118.2   0   Miami-Ohio
101   92   AKRON   MA   817   113.3   0   Akron
 91  100   BALLS   MA   794   120.4   0   Ball State
 96  101   OHIO    MA   774   117.2   0   Ohio U
111  108   EMICH   MA   720   109.8   0   East Mich
118  118   BUFFL   MA   523   124.1   0   Buffalo
119  119   KENTS   MA   494   123.8   1   Kent State

Toledo's defeat at the hands of Northillinois has set the cat amongst the pigeons here, with three sides having a reasonable shout of the Glicko title next week. The other action came at the bottom of the league; after last week's season-best win over Kentstate, Buffalo returned to losing ways, going down 13:6 to Eastmichigan. It's a shame they can't have 0:0 draws in NCAAball any more.

Independents

LW   TW          Conf Rating    RD   Idle
=============================================================
18   17   NOTDM   XX   1246   119.8   1   Notre Dame
59   58   NAVY    XX   1003   117.9   0   Navy
92   84   ARMY    XX    873   124.0   0   Army
116  117  TEMPL   XX    622   132.1   0   Temple

In spite of their week spent as the class bully, Notredame remain on course for a decent bowl game, though have no right to make the top eight. Navy will beat Army for the season as a whole, though Army can close the gap when the teams meet next week. This week's loss for Temple came at the hands of Navy; they will probably finish third from bottom, though a win could lift them up to the giddy heights of 114th, fully five rungs above the bottom.

Finally, a quick laugh at the BCS. Pennstate has no business being third, none at all. They're clearly inferior to LSU. Auburn (10) and Texastech (16) are still undersold, Notredame (8) is vastly, vastly overhyped. Louisville (20) are also too low, while Floridastate (24 with the BCS, 31 on Glicko) is way too high. Oklahoma deserves a place in the top 25 far more.

linkpage | NCAA |

A fairly quiet week in England - Chelsea won, Manchester B beat Charlton, Manchester C drew with Blackburn, Middlesbrough won a five-goal thriller against Fulham, and Sunderland lost. So did Everton, 4:0 at West Brom, to plunge right back into the relegation race. Villarreal seems an awfully long time away.

A break for Reading in Division II, as leaders Sheffield Utd are held 2:2 at Millwall. Norwich's 2:0 win over Luton and Southampton's 4:3 upending of Leeds ensured the Royals march on towards the top flight.

The big match in the lower leagues finished Exeter - Grays 1:2, ensuring that Grays go back to the top. Accrington Stanley beat Forest Green to go second.

In Scotland, Celtic beat Rangers, but Hearts could only draw against Dundee Utd, and Hibs lost to Falkirk. The Spanish big match finished with Barcelona taking a 3:0 win over Real Madrid.

Upsets:

West Brom - Everton 4:0 (31)
Plymouth - QPR 3:1 (35)
Sheffield United - Millwall 2:2 (15)
Malaga - Sociedad 3:1 (31)

The betting - Wigan and Portsmouth lost, but Falkirk won, so we're +2.50 on the week-end. Result! Tips for this mid-week's European and Division II matches:

Rangers, Betis, and Lyon also represent good value; the big match is surely Middlesbrough's trip to AZ Alkmaar.

linkpage | BettingResults |

A lot to get through, so let's away

European League, Group A

Bayern Munich - Rapid Vienna 4:0
     Juventus - Brugge       1:0

Bayern 12 (+6) **EC
Juvent 12 (+5) **EC
Brugge  6      *UEFA
RapidV  0      out

Group B

Ajax - Sparta Prague 2:1
Thun - Arsenal       0:1

Arsenl 15 *EC 1
Ajax   10 *EC 2
Thun    3
SpartP  1

Group C

Panathinaikos - Udinese       1:2
    Barcelona - Werder Bremen 3:1

Barca  13 *EC 1
Udinse  7
Panath  4
Werder  4

Group D Of Death

Manchester Buccaneers - Villarreal 0:0
                Lille - Benfica    0:0

Vilrel  7
Lille   6
ManBuc  6
Benfca  5

Group E of Near-Death

Fenerbahce - AC Milan      0:4
Schalke 04 - PSV Eindhoven 3:0

ACMiln  8
Schalk  8
PSV     7
Fenbhc  4 out

Group F

Real Madrid - Lyon       1:1
  Rosenborg - Olympiakos 1:1

Lyon   13 *EC 1
RealMd 10 *EC 2
Rosnbg  4 *UEFA
Olympk  1 out

Group G for England

Anderlecht - Chelsea    0:2
 Liverpool - Real Betis 0:0

Livrpl 11 ** EC
Chelse 10 ** EC
Betis   7 *UEFA
Andlch  0 out

Group H

      Porto - Rangers  1:1
Inter Milan - Artmedia 4:0

InterM 12 *EC 1
Rangrs  6
Artmda  5
Porto   4

The notes for the final games.
Group A - first place is coming down to goal difference, Bayern travel to Brugge, Juve to Vienna. Both leaders have scored 9.
Group B - Thun host Prague, needing a draw to make the UEFA Cup.
Group C - Werder will continue in Europe with a win; they'll beat Udinese on head-to-heads. A draw when they play Panathaniakos will put the Greeks through to the UEFA Cup, but even a Greek win will ensure they finish third, behind Udinese on head-to-heads.
Group D Of Death - Winners in either game - Benfica-ManB, Villarreal-Lille - will go through. Any side can end up in any given position.
Group E Of Near-Death - The winner of AC - Schalke will win the group; PSV will progress if they win, or if they draw and Schalke win.
Group F is wrapped up, thanks to tie-breakers.
Group G For England will see first and second decided when Chelsea host Liverpool two weeks hence.
Group H - To be sure of qualifying, Rangers need to beat Inter and hope for a draw in Bratislava; a clear result in that game means Rangers will have to win. The good news - Rangers cannot fall out of Europe entirely.

Uefa Cup - Group phase, matchday 3

Group A

Monaco - Hamburg 2:0
Viking Stavanger - Slavia Prague 2:2

*Hamburg 6
Slavia Prague, *Viking 4
Monaco 3
CSKA Sofia 0

Group B

Espanyol - Palermo 1:1
Lokomotiv Moscow - Brondby 2:0

Palermo 5
*Lokomotiv, Espanyol 4
Brondby* 3
Maccabi Petach Tikva 0

Group C

Halmstads - Sampdoria 1:3
Hertha Berlin - Lens 0:0

Steaua, Sampdoria, *Lens, Hertha 4
*Halmstads 0

Group D

AZ Alkmaar - Middlesbrough 0:0
Dnipro - Liteks Lovech 0:2

*Middlesbrough 7-Q
Liteks 6
AZ Alkmaar 4
Grasshoppers Zurich 0
*Dnipro 0-OUT

Group E

Roma - Strasbourg 1:1
Tromso - Red Star Belgrade 3:1

*Strasbourg 7-Q
Roma 4
*Tromso, Basle 3
Red Star Belgrade 0

Group F

CSKA Moscow - Levski Sofia 2:1
Marseille - Heerenveen 1:0

Marseille 6
*CSKA 4
Levski 3
*Heerenveen 2
Dinamo Bucharest 1

Group G

PAOK Salonika - Stuttgart 1:2
Shkahtar Donetsk - Rapid Bucharest 0:1

Rapid, *Shakhtar, *Stuttgart 6
PAOK, Rennes 0

Group H

Guimares - Bolton 1:1
Zenit St Petersburg - Sevilla 2:1

*Zenit 6
*Bolton 5
Sevilla 3
Guimares, Bestiktas 1

* Club has played three games.

Entries from the Upset-o-meter:

The betting: Villarreal got a draw, Heerenveen almost made it, but lost 1:0, and PSV went down 3:0. The result: -2.25 on the mid-week, still +0.25/9 on the month. For this week-end:

Valencia - Celta Vigo (4.40/3.20)
Athletico Madrid - Espanyol (4.40/3.20)
Motherwell - Hearts (3.65/3.20)

linkpage | BettingEuropean |

Two weeks of the regular season left, but most of the big names were idle this week. Only four of last week's top ten played, and one of them got their match voided for being bullies.

#2 Texas 40  vs. Texas A&M 29
X- Arkansas 17 vs. #3 LSU 19
 North Carolina 3 vs. #4 Virginia Tech 30
#32 Virginia 17 vs. #6 Miami 25

Not much else of note; these were other matches between highly-ranked sides:

#14 Georgia 14 vs. #15 Georgia Tech 7
#31 Florida St. 7 vs. #24 Florida 34

...these were the upsets at the bottom end of the top 30, and the other void match...

#26 Fresno St. 35 vs. Nevada 38 (34)
#27 Iowa St. 21 vs. Kansas 24 (31)
 Nebraska 30 vs. #29 Colorado 3 (29)
X- Syracuse 17 vs. #16 Louisville 41

...and these were the other upsets...

 UTEP 27 vs. SMU 40 (40)
 UAB 23 vs. East Carolina 31 (31)
 Louisiana-Lafayette 54 vs. Louisiana-Monroe 21 (31)
 Maryland 14 vs. N.C. State 20 (30)
 South Florida 10 vs. Connecticut 15 (29)
 Idaho 18 vs. San Jose St. 26 (29)
 Fla. International 52 vs. Florida Atlantic 6 (26)

All of which leaves the top 30 looking similar to last week.

LW   TW          Conf Rating    RD   Idle
=============================================================
 1    1   SCALF   PX   1563   144.1   1   Southern California
 2    2   TEXAS   BT   1492   113.7   0   Texas
 4    3   VTECH   AC   1443   109.4   0   Virginia Tech
 3    4   LSU     SE   1417   132.0   1   LSU
 5    5   AUBRN   SE   1356   126.0   1   Auburn
 6    6   MIAFL   AC   1333   118.4   0   Miami-Florida
 7    7   OREGN   PX   1301   120.0   1   Oregon
13    8   WVIRG   BE   1300   124.2   0   W Virginia
14    9   GRGIA   SE   1298   124.7   0   Georgia
 8   10   OHIST   BX   1297   111.2   1   Ohio State
 9   11   PENST   BX   1297   118.2   1   Penn State
10   12   UCLA    PX   1292   117.1   2   UCLA
11   13   TCU     MW*  1291   123.4   2   TCU
12   14   TXSTC   BT   1289   123.1   1   Texas Tech
17   15   NOTDM   XX   1270   115.7   0   Notre Dame
16   16   LSVLE   BE   1247   126.3   2   Louisville
20   17   OKLAH   BT   1232   111.4   0   Oklahoma
18   18   ALABM   SE   1230   120.8   1   Alabama
19   19   BOSCL   AC   1224   112.9   1   Boston College
15   20   GEOTC   AC   1219   114.5   0   Georgia Tech
21   21   MICH    BX   1214   109.1   1   Michigan
24   22   FLORD   SE   1200   119.4   0   Florida
22   23   WISCO   BX   1200   113.4   0   Wisconsin
23   24   CALIF   PX   1165   119.1   1   California
25   25   IOWA    BX   1165   111.9   1   Iowa
28   26   NWSTN   BX   1150   108.6   1   Northwestern
30   27   CLEMS   AC   1139   110.9   1   Clemson
35   28   ARZST   PX   1136   111.5   0   Arizona State
39   29   BSEST   WA*  1135   121.8   0   Boise State
33   30   MINNS   BX   1123   109.1   1   Minnesota

Next week's fixture list pits SCALF against UCLA, WVIRG against SFLOR (71st), LSVLE against CONNC (69th), and there are a few matches that won't affect the upper reaches of the Top 30. The qualified teams, according to the BCS formula, are:

Pacificten champions = (Winner of the match between Southerncalifornia and UCLA; Oregon would finish bottom of the resulting three-way tie if UCLA wins.)
Bigtwelve champions = Texas
Atlantic champions = Virginiatech
Southeast champs = LSU (on head-to-head over Auburn)
Bigeast champs = Westvirginia
Bigten champs = Pennstate (on head-to-head over Ohiostate)
Other sides in top six = None.

Even if they manage to lose their game - it'll be a 40-point upset if it happens - and hence the division, few could argue against Southerncalifornia -v- Texas being the biggest game in town. The other obvious match would be Virginiatech -v- Westvirginia, leaving Auburn -v- Pennstate and Miamiflorida or UCLA -v- LSU.

Yet the BCS top six has managed to exclude Auburn and include Notredame. How has this happened? The side has gone +9-2 over the season, but while anyone can excuse a loss to #1 SCALF, a defeat by #61 MICST is harder to explain. Many of the wins came against opposition rated between 50 and 70, only #40 STANF and #21 MICH have finished in serious contention. It does feel as though the BCS voters have created a self-fulfilling prophecy, Notredame's deemed to be a successful team, and the voters will pick up on evidence that they're doing well, probably well enough to be included in a sixteen-team play-off series, but the voters have ignored counter-evidence suggesting there are clear limits to the team. It's a most unsatisfactory state of affairs, and it's only going to lead to a very one-sided game. Yet Notredame's strength owes, in part, to a similar over-estimation of Michigan, and so the cycle continues...

The final BCS pairings will be issued next week, and the complete bowl schedule will follow. I'll be running down each conference, and marking your cards for the later games.

linkpage | NCAA |

Well, that'll teach me to believe the fixtures listed on the NCAAball site. The *full* list of games for next week-end has now emerged.

SAT
#58 LSATC at #38 FRSST
Fresno may creep into the bottom of the top 30 with a win.

#8 WVIRG at #71 SFLOR
The "Big" East title game, though SFLOR is lurking at the dismal depths of position 71 in the overall standings. A win will put either team into one of the BCS bowls, yet would leave SFLOR somewhere around position 50. What a bonkers system.

#35 COLRD vs #2 TEXAS
The "Big" Twelve title game; a win for Texas would confirm their place in the national final, a win for Colorado would put them into one of the lesser big bowls. And probably into the top 30.

#4 LSU vs #9 GRGIA
The South-East final, a big bowl awaits the winner, and LSU could yet make the national final.

#12 UCLA at #1 SCALF
The Pacific "Ten" final. As discussed previously, SCALF surely deserves a place in the national final, but they could lose the conference to UCLA. What a dripping mess.

SUN
#16 LSVLE at #69 CONNC
Playing for ranking points only.

#37 FLAST vs #3 VTECH The Atlantic final, pitting a side hoping to make the national final against another side hoping to make the top 30. A big bowl awaits the winner.

The national final will be between the top two sides in the rankings. In theory, the Orange bowl will contain the AC champ (FLAST or VTECH), the Fiesta will take the BT champ (TEXAS or COLRD), the Sugar the SE champ (LSU or GRGIA).

The PX winner (UCLA or SCALF), the BE side (WVIRG or SFLOR) and the BX champs (known to be PENST) will appear in one of these four games, but it's not know which.

A string of upsets this coming week-end would surely be the death-knell for the BCS. The SE will produce a winner from inside the top ten, and the PX winner will end up in the top ten. But they may be joined by Colorado, Floridastate, and Southflorida, none of the sides are ranked by the BCS at all.

Even having Southflorida, currently ranked 71st, in one of the big games would make the BCS a laughing stock. In the worst-case scenario, where all the underdogs win, it appears SCALF and TEXAS would go into the national final, leaving all the other games decided.

Still, if it keeps the piss-poor Notredame side out, it must have some merit.

Incidentally, if you wish to leave a comment, do remember the Glickoblog comes complete with its own comments system. Comments posted on lesser syndications will vanish after two weeks...

linkpage | NCAA |

We start in Scotland, where the big noise is Celtic - Dunfermline 0:1 (51). It's the biggest upset in the short time we've been tracking upsets. Hearts missed the chance to go top, and only equalised against Motherwell in injury time. Rangers fell to a defeat at Hibs, and have set an all-time worst of eight games without a win. St Mirren remain top of Division B, Gretna's unbeaten record continues in Division C, and it was a high-scoring day in Division D: Arbroath - East Stirling (SEVEN) 7:2 ... Stenhousemuir - Montrose 6:2.

Charlton's fall continues in England's Division I, losing to Aston Villa. Wigan are also on the way down, suffering a 2:1 defeat to Spurs. Liverpool's build-up to the World Team Championships (just two week-ends away) began with a 2:1 win at Man City; they play Sunderland and Wigan at home, Chelsea in the European League, and then it's off to Japan. The match against Middlesbrough will be re-arranged for a later date.

Reading's lead at the top of Division II increases to four points, and they're now in nosebleed territory, 13 clear of third-placed Watford. The leaders beat Plymouth, but the big surprise came with defeat for second-placed Sheffield Utd at the hands of Leicester. Leeds left it late to beat Millwall, while Luton always had Palace's number. Burnley make the last play-off spot.

Since we last looked, Division III has moved decisively towards Swansea and Huddersfield, now five points clear of Southend. Division IV still sees Wycombe at the top, with Leyton, Grimsby, and Rochdale in hot pursuit. Rochdale were 3:1 down against Shrewsbury this week, but recovered to win 4:3. Torquay and Stockport are in prime position to go down together for the second successive year. There are no matches in these divisions until 6 December, as next week is the Eighth Round (or Second Round Proper) of the FA Cup.

Wins for the big three in Division V - Grays remain a point clear of Accrington Stanley, with Exeter a further point adrift. Grays beat fourth-placed Stevenage this week. The other major match came at the foot, where struggling Aldershot beat bottom-placed Forest Green 2:1; Southport take the second relegation spot.

The big result on the continent was Villarreal's 2:0 win at Deportivo. Other results from the upset-o-meter...

cel-dnf 0:1 (51)
ful-bol 2:1 (39)
lei-sfu 4:2 (36)
lut-cpl 2:0 (36)
utr-ajx 1:0 (35)
psg-len 3:4 (34)
eve-nwc 1:0 (33)
hbs-ran 2:1 (31)

The betting was moderate:

Slightly down - by -0.05 - on the month, from 13.5 bet. This mid-week is UEFA Cup, achtelfinals of England's League Cup, and viertelfinals (first leg) in Italy. No bets, though we do fancy Sunderland and Wigan to pull off home upsets.

linkpage | BettingResults |

older writing... write to