We'll start with the Top Ten, including Mismatches Of The Day

#1 Southern Cal 28 vs. Washington St. 22
#3 Ohio St. 38 vs. #24 Iowa 17
#28 Georgia Tech 38 vs. #4 Virginia Tech 27 (39)
#5 Auburn 24 vs. South Carolina 17
 BYU 31  vs. #7 TCU 17 (44)
#8 Oregon 48 vs. #30 Arizona St. 13
#9 Georgia 14 vs. #101 Mississippi 9
#100 Mississippi St. 17 vs. #10 LSU 48

#2 Texas played an unranked side, #6 Wvirg had a week off. Another good win for Ohist, consolidating third place. Vtech's loss in the battle of the techs to Gtech is a major shock, but TCU's defeat is probably even bigger. There's very little advantage in beating up little sides - Grgia and LSU pick up the grand total of 4 points for their wins. Some more matches involving ranked sides:

#21 Alabama 13 vs. # 12 Florida 28
#16 Texas Tech 31 vs. #32 Texas A&M 27

Elsewhere, Miafl beat up some low-ranked numpties to record their first win of the season. Upsets:

 Illinois 23  vs. Michigan St. 20 (43)
#117 Florida Atlantic 21 vs. Louisiana-Monroe 19 (37)
#114 Rice 48 vs. Army 14 (37)
 Akron 15 vs. Kent St. 37 (35)
 New Mexico 7 vs. Air Force 24 (32)
 Kansas St. 3 vs. Baylor 17 (32)

So Army can only beat Kents by the odd point, and now folds like a pack of cards against Rice. Goodness knows what happens if they play a team like Ball State. Three other results of interest:

#115 Idaho 41 vs. #109 Utah St. 21
 San Diego St. 10 vs. San Jose St. 31
 Nevada 31 vs. UNLV 3

The Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
 1    1    1   SCALF   PX   1564   153.6   0   Southern California
 2    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1475   137.8   1   Texas
 8    3    3   OHIST   BX   1463   125.9   0   Ohio State
10    5    4   AUBRN   SE   1404   138.1   0   Auburn
15    8    5   OREGN   PX   1385   125.5   0   Oregon
 5    6    6   WVIRG   BE   1385   145.1   1   W Virginia
12    9    7   GRGIA   SE   1363   137.8   0   Georgia
 4   10    8   LSU     SE   1358   140.5   0   LSU
 3    4    9   VTECH   AC   1352   135.9   0   Virginia Tech
21   12   10   FLORD   SE   1342   126.2   0   Florida
19   11   11   LSVLE   BE   1323   135.9   1   Louisville
23   13   12   MICH    BX   1322   121.2   0   Michigan
20   14   13   NOTDM   XX   1314   117.7   0   Notre Dame
 6    7   14   TCU     MW   1288   139.0   0   TCU
16   16   15   TXSTC   BT   1280   128.5   0   Texas Tech
 7   18   16   PENST   BX   1264   128.5   0   Penn State
14   15   17   OKLAH   BT   1258   131.4   1   Oklahoma
11   19   18   UCLA    PX   1254   136.0   0   UCLA
18   17   19   BOSCL   AC   1244   129.3   1   Boston College
17   20   20   WISCO   BX   1241   130.0   0   Wisconsin
26   28   21   GEOTC   AC   1240   127.3   0   Georgia Tech
22   23   22   CALIF   PX   1232   124.6   0   California
25   22   23   CLEMS   AC   1230   122.0   0   Clemson
37   25   24   BSEST   WA   1229   127.0   0   Boise State
27   27   25   NBRSK   BT   1211   128.1   0   Nebraska
 9   26   26   MIAFL   AC   1203   131.1   0   Miami-Florida
13   21   27   ALABM   SE   1190   131.1   0   Alabama
44   31   28   MISRI   BT   1187   125.0   0   Missouri
24   24   29   IOWA    BX   1185   130.0   0   Iowa
31   29   30   FLAST   AC   1172   132.5   1   Florida State

Yes, we still rate Scalf ahead of Ohist, and we will continue to do so until Scalf actually loses a game. Vtech, TCU, Alabm, and Iowa take falls on their losses, Geotc climbs from its win. Lower down, BYU scoots up from 60 to 45.

The "Big" East

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==========================================================
 5    6    6   WVIRG   BE   1385   145.1   1   W Virginia
19   11   11   LSVLE   BE   1323   135.9   1   Louisville
52   33   31   RUTGR   BE   1152   127.7   0   Rutgers
62   53   47   PITTS   BE   1064   124.9   0   Pittsburgh
69   68   71   CONNC   BE    920   130.0   0   Connecticut
78   69   72   SFLOR   BE    919   125.3   0   S Florida
79   88   81   CINCI   BE    875   133.8   0   Cincinnati
97   94   85   SYRAC   BE    860   123.0   0   Syracuse

Very little change in the rankings between the sides this year, the Wvirg-Lsvle game (scheduled for 12.30am on 3 Nov) remains the probable title-decider. As a rule of thumb, a top-50 place overall should guarantee a bowl game, but Pittsburgh should squeeze in if they finish a little beneath.

The Pacific Ten

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
 1    1    1   SCALF   PX   1564   153.6   0   Southern California
15    8    5   OREGN   PX   1385   125.5   0   Oregon
11   19   18   UCLA    PX   1254   136.0   0   UCLA
22   23   22   CALIF   PX   1232   124.6   0   California
28   30   32   ARZST   PX   1150   122.3   0   Arizona State
91   52   43   WASNG   PX   1073   133.3   0   Washington
68   54   52   WASST   PX   1020   131.5   0   Washington State
49   55   59   ORGST   PX    993   134.3   0   Oregon State
67   65   70   ARIZN   PX    926   139.9   0   Arizona
33   76   79   STANF   PX    890   123.6   0   Stanford

Another all-against-all division, and the Scalf-Oregn match (12 Nov, at 3.15 in the morning) looks set to decide. At least one of the Washington sides will make the post-season.

No live NCAA-ball on NASN next week, schedules are clear for the baseball play-offs. Scheduled matches for taped coverage include ARKNS - AUBRN (12 noon Sunday), LSU - FLORD (3pm Sunday), TEXAM - KNTCY (12 noon Tuesday), WASNG - USC (3pm Tuesday).

CFL

The week-end's slate of matches finished in the early hours of this morning, and here are the classified results.

mon-win 23:20
bcl-ham 28: 8
cal-tor 16:23
edm-sas 30:25 (34)

Hamilton therefore eliminated from the post-season. We can't say that Montreal, Toronto, and Winnipeg will all progress, because if the fourth-placed side in the West scores better than the third-placed side in the East, the Western side takes their place in the play-offs. That's looking unlikely.

West
====

BCL   1122   98.6
CAL   1056   96.3
SAS    970   96.8
EDM    919   98.1

East
====
TOR   1063  100.1
MON   1006  102.1
WIN    967   94.9
HAM    861   98.3

linkpage | NCAA |

Upsets in most leagues this week-end, perhaps none bigger than Wolfsburg's victory over perpetual German champions Bayern Munich. QPR and Sheffield U pick up very useful wins, and Le Mans' fantastic start to the season comes crashing to a halt. Here's the full set of results on the Upset-o-meter:

E2 SOT-QPR 1:2 (40)
DE WLF-BAY 1:0 (40)
E1 SFU-MID 2:1 (39)
FR MON-LEM 2:1 (37)
SC MTW-KLM 5:0 (36)
E1 BOL-LIV 2:0 (35)
SC STM-HBS 1:0 (35)
DE BYL-SNV 3:1 (34)
IT FIO-CAT 3:0 (33)
FR VCN-BDX 2:0 (33)
FE SET-PSG 1:0 (32)
E2 CCR-IPS 1:0 (31)

NL HEE-PSV 0:0 (18)
E1 CHE-AVL 1:1 (17)
E2 STK-PNE 1:1 (17)
IT ACM-SIE 0:0 (15)

We should mention Braga's 2:1 win over Porto last night, which doesn't count as an upset because it's BRG's first match.

FA Cup

The FA Cup's Eleventh Round (the, er, Eintausendzwanzigvier-mit-Bye-Finale, if you will) took place last week-end. At this round, sides from the Divisions VI enter. And, in the cases of Leigh RMI, Workington, Histon, Redditch, Braintree, Eastbourne, Thurrock, and Weston-super-Mare, sides from the Divisions VI exit - all eight fell to sides from lower divisions. Amongst other storied sides in recent history, Trafford keep alive their hopes of playing at Old Trafford, Nuneaton and Yeading won, as did 1988 winners Wimbledon.

The draw for the Tenth Round (Funfhundertzwolf-mit-Bye-Finale) has already been made, with Wimbledon hosting Evesham, Cambridge City at home to Matlock, and Farnborough having a tricksy tie against Yeading. Matches to be played on 14 October.

UEFA Cup Groups

Group A:
Auxerre
Rangers
Partizan Belgrade
Livorno
Maccabi Haifa

It would be surprising and depressing were Rangers not to emerge from this group. Livorno look like the makeweights, but the other four will be scrapping for every point.

Group B:
Bayer Leverkusen
Club Brugge
Besiktas
Dinamo Bucuresti
Tottenham

A well-matched group, no obvious favourites, no obvious failures.

Group C:
Sevilla
AZ Alkmaar
Slovan Liberec
Grasshoppers
Braga

Seville and AZ should qualify with ease, the remaining three are battling for the remaining place.

Group D:
Parma
Lens
Heerenveen
Osasuna
Odense BK

Odense will find it difficult to break out of this group.

Group E:
Feyenoord
Basle
Wisla Krakow
Blackburn
AS Nancy

Feyenoord and Basle for the First Round Proper. Goodness alone knows who will pull through for the last spot.

Group F:
Ajax
Sparta Prague
Espanyol
Austria Vienna
Zulte Wagerem

Perhaps the most clear-cut group, with Ajax, Sparta, and Espanyol a long way clear.

Group G:
Panathinaikos
Paris St. Germain
Rapid Bucuresti
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Mlada Boleslav

We're not entirely convinced that Rapid are anything other than a one-season wonder. PSG and Panathinaikos will qualify.

Group H:
Newcastle
Celta Vigo
Palermo
Fenerbahce
Eintracht Frankfurt

Another tough group, perhaps Eintracht will be the weakest side.

Europe's First And Second XI

According to the raw rankings, the top 20 sides at the moment with a RD of 110 or below are:

01 CHE   1264   96.2
02 BAR   1247   93.5
03 VAL   1244   95.8
04 LYN   1219   93.5
05 ACM   1213  103.2
06 MUN   1201   95
07 SEV   1200   97.5
08 RMD   1165   95.2
09 ANL   1153   92.8
10 LIV   1125   91
11 AMD   1102  100.4
12 PAL   1099  100.6
13 PSV   1094  108.8
14 NCY   1090  105.7
15 MAR   1088   95.6
16 WER   1082   95.2
17 CEL   1076   93.2
18 BAY   1075   98.1
19 ROM   1072   93.8
20 OSA   1070   96.6
21 BOL   1053   93.6
22 VIL   1053   97.6

However, that doesn't take account of the RD at all. The usual sampling method of all-against-all trials does give a slight advantage to sides with higher RDs. Just as a bit of fun, here's the Top 22.

1. Chelsea
2. Barcelona
3. Lyon
4. Valencia
5. Seville
6. Manchester Buccaneers
7. AC Milan
8. Arsenal
9. Real Madrid
10. PSV Eindhoven
11. Palermo
12. Liverpool
13. Marseille
14. Werder Bremen
15. Nancy
16. Athletico Madrid
17. Bayern Munich
18. Deportiva la Coruna
19. Inter Milan
20. Osasuna
21. Roma
22. Celtic

linkpage | EuropeanTables |

Highlights this week included a narrow win for the Charms over NJ/B - it's Easterbrook's Play of the Week, a surprise win for the Cover Your Eyes With Feathers against the Lapponites, and yet another blow-out win at the Pie Scales. The St Francisville Fortyfour-Niners take their name from this fixture in 1997, when Kansas won by the fabled 44:9 scoreline. This year, the rout was even greater - 41 points to zip, taking the FFN's average away record to F 3.5 A 37.5

After four weeks of competition, here's the current CFL-S standings:

Canadian League
===============

NEM  1131   143.9   CE   New England New Democracy
NJJ  1030   143.0   CE   New Jersey B
BUF  1003   143.0   CE   Buffalo Cover Your Eyes With Feathers
MIA   850   142.6   CE   Miami December Collapse

BAL  1201   146.5   CN   Baltimore Erinas
CIN  1098   144.5   CN   Cincinnati Bungles
PIT   968   152.9   CN   Pittsburgh Terrorists
CLE   908   146.5   CN   Aston Villa

IND  1224   144.0   CS   Indianapolis Lucky Charms
JAC  1009   143.6   CS   Jacksonville Browns Lane
HOU   881   143.8   CS   Houston Moocows
TEN   783   145.1   CS   Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks

DEN  1072   153.7   CW   Denver Ants
SDF  1066   153.7   CW   San Diego Bolts
KAN   928   152.8   CW   Kansas City Pie Scales
OAK   813   153.7   CW   Oakland Lost

Provincial League
=================

PHI  1088   144.0   PE   Philadelphia Marxists
DAL  1024   154.2   PE   Irving Asteroids
WAS   991   143.6   PE   Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons
NJG   975   154.8   PE   New Jersey A

CHI  1236   143.0   PN   Chicago Pink Rhinosceri
MIN   991   144.1   PN   Minnesota Lapponites
BOG   899   143.9   PN   Bay of Green
DET   792   146.0   PN   Detroit Peugeots

ATL  1100   144.0   PS   Atlanta Cattacciano
NOB  1096   146.3   PS   New Orleans Boy Scouts
CAR  1024   146.3   PS   Carolina Pussycats
BOT   818   153.6   PS   Manchester United

SEA  1134   142.8   PW   Seattle Blue Men Group
STL  1074   146.0   PW   St Louis Mouflons
ARI   910   142.7   PW   Arizona Cautions
SFF   885   144.1   PW   St Francisville Fortyfour-Niners

The Erinas, Lucky Charms, and Pink Rhinosceri are the only sides unbeaten; the Peugeots, Thumbtacks, Lost, and Manchester United are yet to taste defeat. The other 25 sides are within a game of even money.

It's interesting to compare against the Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for this season alone, which put the Pink Rhinosceri ahead of the Bolts, Erinas, Marxists, and Pie Scales. Interesting.

One late NCAA result from pie-scale territory: Pittsburg - Emporia State 59:57 (after extra time) (after more extra time) (after even more extra time) (after so much extra time that they may as well have replayed the whole damned game the following morning).

linkpage | NCAA |

One of the aims of the Glickoblog is to wonder how the principles can be applied to sports and pastimes other than chess. Our prime interest, and focus of most of our work, is European football; it is apparent to any observer that the forthcoming fixtures between Chelsea and Barcelona are a clash between two of Europe's most successful sides. It is interesting to get some statistical insight into the relative positions of French and German sides, and this information will become available during the course of the coming season.

We have also applied the principles to other sports; the NCAAball circuit desperately requires a metric that is less subjective, and capable of ranking all senior sides, than the existing polls. As we've demonstrated, the Glicko system is capable of doing just that. We've also expanded coverage to include the senior sport, in both the CFL and the CFL-South. A writer at Baseball Prospectus has used a degenerate Glicko implementation (known as the ELO ranking) for his sport; regrettably, this information is hidden behind a pay-to-view archive wall.

Would it be possible to apply the principles behind the Glicko rankings elsewhere? Any sport where the competitors are known in advance, such as a league, or a restricted-entry cup competition, can easily be modelled through Glicko ratings, and the internal results would settle down to a reasonable approximation of the true picture in an acceptably short time.

Regular correspondent Mr. Pokery asked last month if it would be possible to implement a Glicko-based ranking for boxers. The general case, an algorithm for contests where the participants are not known in advance, should fall out by example.

In order for Glicko rankings to hold meaning, two principles must hold. One, there must be a sufficient set of data points to provide meaningful ratings at the level where meaning is required. Two, the universe of monitored participants must - in principle - be kept finite.

How might we apply these principles to boxing? Let us first define the problem as being to produce an ordered list of championship contenders (to include champions) in a single weight division, perhaps consisting of 15-20 names. We might also observe that the title-holder will compete perhaps four times per year, while lesser opposition may compete six times per year.

By the definition of the Glicko algorithm, an set of RDs reducing equally will come down from 20% of its companion rating to 10% in about 13 competitions, notwithstanding any increase in RD over time. In order to produce a clearly meaningful result, it appears that it is necessary to reduce the RD of leading competitors to around 10% of the rating. These factors suggest that a three-year ratings period may provide insufficient competition data, while a four-year period - typically containing between 16 and 24 data points per competitor - would certainly be sufficient. This would be a matter for experiment.

We must now consider the ratings universe, those competitors whose rankings we shall compute. Clearly, all recognised champions during the past four years in that weight division must be included. The lack of a single title body complicates matters a little, but only to the extent that we should include all credible international bodies, and err on the side of inclusion. We must also include everyone who has fought for, but been defeated in, a title competition - call these the first-order challengers. This will provide too few data points to sensibly rank the defeated challengers; it will be necessary to include everyone who has competed against someone who failed in their challenge for a title - call these the second-order challengers.

Would it be necessary to iterate to a third level away from the championship? This remains to be empirically tested, for it is quite possible that a good proportion of the second-order challengers would have competed amongst themselves, or against other first-order challengers, and may provide sufficient cross-over to link the various alphabet soup bodies. By provisionally stopping the search at the second-order, we can be assured of a sensible RD for everyone who has had a shot at a title.

There would, of course, be a lot of competition from outside the pre-defined universe. It may well be prudent to include such third-order challengers as had repeatedly competed against first- and second-order players. As a rule of thumb, four such contests would ensure that they could have a meaningful ranking.

For contests against other unranked opposition, it may be possible to include a dummy opponent with fixed rating and RD, or it may be best to discard the data. Without compiling and reviewing the dataset, it is not clear which would be the preferable option - or if this would have any significant effect, as the result would be to directly alter the second-order players, less so for the first-orders, and even less for the various champions.

It must be noted that this would have to be a retrospective calculation - the putative rankings for December 2006 would contain data beginning in January 2003. As the constituent set of boxers would change, it would be necessary to recompute the rankings from scratch each time.

A view would have to be taken regarding the penalty for not competing in a set period. If the assumption is that top competitors will have four results per year, and that a net 12 results is the absolute minimum to give good rankings, then the time penalty would have to be very slow, perhaps increasing the RD by 15% in one year - roughly 1.1% per month, or about 3.5% per quarter.

It would also be necessary to remove from the final rankings certain competitors with poor RDs, or who have retired from competition. These would be moderately easy to spot - assuming a (1000, 200) initial rating for everyone, an RD above 150 would be too high for comfort, while a candidate who has not competed in the last year could be deemed to have retired, subject to reinstation following injury.

It would be possible to compute the hypothetical boxing Glicko rankings on a schedule of arbitrary length - weekly, monthly, quarterly, even annually - without materially altering the rankings themselves.

However, the choice of idle period for calculation of RD would alter the rankings. As the choice of one's next opponent is generally predicated on the result of the previous match, it would make sense for the idle period to be short enough that candidates would very rarely compete twice in one period. For European football, clubs play at the week-end and in mid-week, so two idle periods make up the week; for NCAAball, there is never more than one match per week, so the idle period naturally falls to one week. At the level of competition we are discussing here, a one month idle period should work. The alternative approach, implemented by some chess federations, is to have multiple matches in one rating period all taking place at once; this would be undesirable for reasons explained above.

To summarise, here is how we would propose to implement a Glicko ranking for boxers:

* Include all champions within the past four years, and all competitors who were within two matches of a championship, or who regularly competed against these people.

* Start all competitors at (1000, 200), and follow the normal scoring rules.

* Increment each competitor's RD by the twelfth-root of 115% at the end of month.

* Exclude from the final tabulation any competitor who has an RD above 150, or who has not registered a result in the past year.

It is, of course, quite possible that the graph produced by this exercise may produce two or more clusters of competitors, based around various parts of the boxing world's TLA-soup, with little interaction between each cluster. If this were to happen, it may be sensible to publish a separate ranking list for each cluster of competitors.

It should also be noted that this analysis is predicated on producing a meaningful top-20 for a division, perhaps building to a top-50 with less confidence for the lower places. If we wished to produce a canonical top-100, it would be necessary to consider all third-order contenders. At this point, the quality and completeness of data would become a significant problem.

Indeed, the proposal above would require a tremendous investment to collect a complete set of data, and it may never be practicable to find all results involving second-order competitors from three years previously. It is this lack of data, and not an absence of a workable algorithm, that presents the biggest block to a sensible Glicko-based ranking of boxers.

linkpage | |

The complete run-down of results from yesterday's European Nations' Cup qualification matches.

Group A Of Crowds

Kazakhstan - Poland 0:1
   Armenia - Finland 0:0
Serbia - Belgium 1:0
  Portugal - Azerbaijan 3:0

Poland's win lifts them to four points, and (thanks to the tie-break rules) briefly put Finland top of the group. The Finns couldn't build on their lead, but while Serbia's win puts the side two points clear, it also lifts Belgium from 4th to 3rd, ahead of Poland, at least for the fifteen minutes until Portugal completed their win.

7 pts: Serbia, 5: Finland, 4: Portugal*, Belgium, Poland*, 2: Kazakhstan, 1: Armenia, Azerbaijan. (A * denotes a team with a game in hand.)

Group B Of Death

Faroe Islands - Lithuania 0:1
 Scotland - France 1:0
Italy - Ukraine 2:0

For those of you having trouble believing it, believe it. Scotland one, France nothing. Scotland therefore becomes the Knockout European Champions, though Ukraine (holders going into the World Cup) can win the title back with a win on Wednesday. France will be taking out their vengeance on the Faroes.

9: Scotland, 6: France, 4: Lithuania, Italy, 3: Ukraine*, Georgia, 0: Faroes.

Group C

Moldova - Bosnia-Herzegovina 2:2
Hungary - Turkey 0:1
 Greece - Norway 1:0

How's this for the law of unintended consequences? Bosnia's draw lifted them above a four-way tie for second, and relegated Hungary from 2nd to 5th. The Greek win against early leaders Norway means it's Greece at the head of a three-way tussle for first. They'll host Bosnia on Wednesday.

6: Greece*, Norway, Turkey*, 4: Bosnia, 3: Hungary, 1: Moldova, 0: Malta*

Group D Of Goals! Goals! Goals!

  Wales - Slovakia 1:5
Czechia - San Marino (SEVEN) 7:0
 Cyprus - Republic of Ireland 5:2

First out of the blocks were the Slovaks; their win put them in a three-way tie for first, allowing Czechia to take the lead from Germany. By that time, the Czechs were already comfortably ahead, but the Cypriot win ends Irish hopes of making the final.

9: Czechia, 6: Germany*, Slovakia, 3: Cyprus*, 0: Ireland*, Wales*, San Marino*

Group E For England

England - FYR Macedonia 0:0
Croatia - Andorra (SEVEN) 7:0

Croatia moves past Macedonia for second, and will take the lead if the side beats England on Wednesday. England has the tie-breaker over Macedonia. Following the late removal of Israel, next Wednesday is the first time all six sides will be in action.

7: England, 4: Croatia*, Macedonia, 1: Russia**, 0: Estonia**, Andorra*

Group F

 Sweden - Spain 2:0
Denmark - Northern Ireland 0:0
 Latvia - Iceland 4:0

Another match, another loss for Spain, and their position cannot improve on Wednesday when the side doesn't play.

9: Sweden, 4: Denmark*, Northern Ireland, 3: Latvia*, Spain, Iceland, 0: Liechtenstein

Group G

 Romania - Belarus 3:1
Bulgaria - Netherlands 1:1
Slovenia - Luxembourg 2:0

Romania took the group lead with their result, and retain it on tie-breakers from the Dutch. Slovenia's points the first of the contest.

7: Romania, Netherlands, 5: Bulgaria, 3: Slovenia*, 1: Albania*, Belarus, 0: Luxembourg*

linkpage | European |

All change! All change!

Last Week's Top Ten

 Washington 20 vs. #1 Southern Cal 26 (4)
#2 Texas 28 vs. #17 Oklahoma 10
 Bowling Green 7 vs. #3 Ohio St. 35 (2)
#35 Arkansas 27 vs. #4 Auburn 10 (41)
#5 Oregon 24 vs. #22 California 45 (34)
#6 West Virginia 42 vs. #98 Mississippi St. 14 (2)
#33 Tennessee 51 vs. #7 Georgia 33 (38)
#8 LSU 10 vs. #10 Florida 23

Last week's number 9, VTech, had no game.

For some, it was a tale of easy wins against very lowly opposition, including Ohist's first effective reverse of the season. For Texas and Florida, crucial wins against sides that have - or had - reasonable claims for top-ten finishes. And for three of the top ten, losses against credible sides - nothing to be unduly embarrassed about, but it's probably enough to stick spokes in the wheels for the coveted number one spot.

Other interesting top 30 matches

#14 TCU 7 vs. Utah 20 (36)
#28 Missouri 38 vs. #15 Texas Tech 21 (30)
#30 Florida St. 20  vs. #38 N.C. State 24

TCU's second straight loss sees the side collapse at a rate of knots. Good win for Misri, and for NCSta.

Upsets

 Fresno St. 12 vs. #114 Utah St. 13 (44)
#35 Arkansas 27 vs. #4 Auburn 10 (41)
#33 Tennessee 51 vs. #7 Georgia 33 (38)
 Nevada 34 vs. Hawaii 41 (36)
 W. Michigan 20 vs. Ohio 27 (36)
 Wyoming 14 vs. New Mexico 10 (36)
 Virginia 21 vs. East Carolina 31 (34)
#5 Oregon 24 vs. #22 California 45 (34)
 Louisiana-Lafayette 31 vs. Houston 28 (30)
 Cent. Michigan 42 vs. Toledo 20 (30)

This is the value of a comprehensive ranking of sides - we can see that Oregon's loss was significantly less than Auburn's, and that both were eclipsed by the Utah Saints' last-minute victory against Fresno. Not bad for a group that hasn't had a hit in ten years.

Also of interest

 Navy 24 vs. Air Force 17

Life in triple figures

#105 Rice 24 vs. #111 Tulane 38
#116 Fla. International 22 vs. #106 North Texas 25
#102 Ball St. 55 vs. #118 Buffalo 25
#104 Kent St. 28 vs. #119 Temple 17

A busy week at the bottom of the rankings, too. Kent's utterly implausible run to the bowl games continues with the side's fourth (count 'em!) straight win, and the first time they've been a favourite for the game since the invention of on-line betting. Oops.

The Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
 1    1    1   SCALF   PX   1572   150.9   0   Southern California
 2    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1497   132.5   0   Texas
 8    3    3   OHIST   BX   1467   125.3   0   Ohio State
 5    6    4   WVIRG   BE   1389   144.7   0   W Virginia
21   10    5   FLORD   SE   1382   120.3   0   Florida
 3    9    6   VTECH   AC   1352   135.9   1   Virginia Tech
23   12    7   MICH    BX   1333   118.7   0   Michigan
15    5    8   OREGN   PX   1331   120.4   0   Oregon
19   11    9   LSVLE   BE   1329   134.8   0   Louisville
10    4   10   AUBRN   SE   1326   133.7   0   Auburn
20   13   11   NOTDM   XX   1321   116.4   0   Notre Dame
 4    8   12   LSU     SE   1309   132.0   0   LSU
12    7   13   GRGIA   SE   1290   132.3   0   Georgia
22   22   14   CALIF   PX   1285   119.6   0   California
 7   16   15   PENST   BX   1280   124.5   0   Penn State
11   18   16   UCLA    PX   1268   132.3   0   UCLA
26   21   17   GEOTC   AC   1263   122.3   0   Georgia Tech
17   20   18   WISCO   BX   1261   125.1   0   Wisconsin
25   23   19   CLEMS   AC   1252   117.6   0   Clemson
18   19   20   BOSCL   AC   1244   129.3   2   Boston College
37   24   21   BSEST   WA*  1241   124.0   0   Boise State
27   25   22   NBRSK   BT   1239   122.3   0   Nebraska
14   17   23   OKLAH   BT   1237   127.0   0   Oklahoma
44   28   24   MISRI   BT   1234   119.5   0   Missouri
16   15   25   TXSTC   BT   1230   122.4   0   Texas Tech
 9   26   26   MIAFL   AC   1224   126.0   0   Miami-Florida
24   29   27   IOWA    BX   1217   123.6   0   Iowa
 6   14   28   TCU     MW*  1217   132.8   0   TCU
13   27   29   ALABM   SE   1195   130.0   0   Alabama
54   33   30   TENSE   SE   1185   120.6   0   Tennessee

Some pretty big changes there - Florida use their win against LSU to advance five more places, while Michigan, Louisville, and Notre Dame all beat up lesser opposition to move up the table. California get their reward, and there's the usual flutter of movement lower down the pack. Boise-state become the leading side from a non-BCS conference, but it would not be unreasonable to deem them just too poor for the effective top ten place. Tennessee moves into the top 30 at the expense of Florida-state.

The "Big" Twelve

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==============================================================
 2    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1497   132.5   0   Texas
27   25   22   NBRSK   BT   1239   122.3   0   Nebraska
14   17   23   OKLAH   BT   1237   127.0   0   Oklahoma
44   28   24   MISRI   BT   1234   119.5   0   Missouri
16   15   25   TXSTC   BT   1230   122.4   0   Texas Tech
40   34   35   TEXAM   BT   1144   121.2   0   Texas A&M
34   40   44   IWAST   BT   1066   122.3   0   Iowa State
50   55   51   KNSST   BT   1036   123.3   0   Kansas State
32   49   52   KANSS   BT   1027   121.0   0   Kansas
60   63   54   BAYLR   BT   1013   117.1   0   Baylor
48   66   67   COLRD   BT    921   117.9   0   Colorado
73   69   78   OKLST   BT    893   129.0   0   Oklahoma State

Texas is clearly a cut above all other sides, and - even accounting for the loss to Ohist - must be in contention for the overall title, but the defeat for Texas-tech means there's no clear rival for the second place. Kansas and Colorado have had a notably poor season so far, Missouri has profited.

The Sun Belt

LY    LW    TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
======================================================================
 86    87    75   LOLAF   SB   904   130.9   0   Louisiana Lafayette
103    95    90   ARKST   SB   825   117.0   0   Arkansas State
104    91    91   MDTEN   SB   817   129.1   0   Middle Tennessee
108   106   103   NTEXS   SB   723   121.2   0   North Texas
 89   100   105   LOMON   SB   711   130.7   0   Louisiana Monroe
114   110   111   FLATL   SB   672   136.9   1   Florida Atlantic
109   112   112   TROY    SB   663   139.8   1   Troy
101   116   117   FLINT   SB   578   120.1   0   Florida International

Will anyone join the conference champions in the play-offs? On this showing, almost certainly not.

Next week on NASN, there's a live "Big" Twelve game at 5.30. Two games on tape - Misip-Alabm (6pm Sunday) and Vndrb-Grgia (6.30pm Monday).

linkpage | NCAA |

Delayed results this week, because two matches were delayed for the Thanksgiving double-header.

cal-bcl 13:39
sas-mon 08:35
edm-tor 23:28

Toronto, Montréal take play-off spots.

Standings:

EAST
====
TOR   1079   97.7   0   E
MON   1030   99.0   0   E
WIN    967   94.9   1   E
HAM    861   98.3   1   E

* Montreal +9-6
* Toronto  +9-6
  Winnipeg +7-8
  Hamilton +4-12

WEST
====
BCL   1143   96.0   0   W
CAL   1036   93.9   0   W
SAS    948   94.3   0   W
EDM    903   95.9   0   W

* BC          +11-4
* Calgary      +9-7
  Saskatchewan +7-8
  Edmonton     +5-10

Next week:
MON-SAS, 2.30am Sat
TOR-EDM, 8pm Sat
WIN-HAM, 6pm Sun
BCL-CAL, 9pm Sun

Victory for BC would ensure they won the Western division and a first-round bye.

CFL South

The Lucky Charms and Pink Rhinosceri remain the only unbeaten sides. While the Pink Rhinosceri were beating up on the Cover Your Eyes With Feathers, the Charms required a late touchdown to beat the Flaming Thumbtacks (the winless Flaming Thumbtacks!) late in the fourth half. The only upset (unless you count an insignificant win for Browns Lane over New Jersey/B) was defeat for the Erinas at the Ants in the Tuesday morning game, which disintegrated into a rain-swept penalty shoot-out. Viewers in Arizona West were sujected to an error-strewn match between the Fortyfour-Niners and the Lost, who lost.

NEM  1150   138.5   0   CE   New England New Democracy
BUF   981   136.9   0   CE   Buffalo Cover Your Eyes With Feathers
NJJ   980   134.4   0   CE   New Jersey B
MIA   832   137.4   0   CE   Miami December Collapse

BAL  1136   138.3   0   CN   Baltimore Erinas
CIN  1098   144.5   1   CN   Cincinnati Bungles
PIT   928   143.6   0   CN   Pittsburgh Terrorists
CLE   873   138.0   0   CN   Aston Villa

IND  1233   141.2   0   CS   Indianapolis Lucky Charms
JAC  1059   134.9   0   CS   Jacksonville Browns Lane
HOU   881   143.8   1   CS   Houston Moocows
TEN   773   142.3   0   CS   Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks

DEN  1144   144.5   0   CW   Denver Ants
SDF  1106   143.8   0   CW   San Diego Bolts
KAN   979   142.3   0   CW   Kansas City Pie Scales
OAK   769   143.3   0   CW   Oakland Lost

PHI  1128   135.6   0   PE   Philadelphia Marxists
NJG  1032   144.3   0   PE   New Jersey A
DAL   979   143.7   0   PE   Irving Asteroids
WAS   942   135.1   0   PE   Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons

CHI  1258   136.9   0   PN   Chicago Pink Rhinosceri
MIN  1017   137.3   0   PN   Minnesota Lapponites
BOG   871   136.7   0   PN   Bay of Green
DET   766   138.9   0   PN   Detroit Peugeots

NOB  1116   140.7   0   PS   New Orleans Boy Scouts
ATL  1100   144.0   1   PS   Atlanta Cattacciano
CAR  1059   137.9   0   PS   Carolina Pussycats
BOT   796   147.4   0   PS   Manchester United

SEA  1134   142.8   1   PW   Seattle Blue Men Group
STL  1103   138.5   0   PW   St Louis Mouflons
SFF   924   135.8   0   PW   St Francisville Fortyfour-Niners
ARI   865   134.3   0   PW   Arizona Cautions

As one might expect, exactly half the sides are rated above 1000; we might not expect such an even distribution, with only Provincial-South having three sides, at the expense of Canadian-East.

We should also mention that forthcoming channel Fiveus will have an hour of CFL-S action each Wednesday night at 7pm from next Wednesday. Next week's mismatch pits the unbeaten Pink Rhinosceri against the Cautions. Not only may one of the sides contain football-like substances, but the broadcast may contain Colin Murray. Insomniacs can see the match live in the early hours of Tuesday. The NASN Europe matches (not available to viewers in the UK, so don't ask) are (Sunday 7pm CET) Bungles -v- Manchester United (10pm) December Collapse -v- NJ/A (Monday 2am) Lost -v- Ants. No coverage on NASN-UK of the CFL proper this week, because of the extended baseball coverage.

linkpage | NCAA |

Onwards and upwards; for most teams, this is the third or fourth match.

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group A
18:00   FT   Kazakhstan    0 : 2    Finland
20:15   FT   Serbia        3 : 0    Armenia
20:30   FT   Poland        2 : 1    Portugal
20:45   FT   Belgium       3 : 0    Azerbaijan

The win in the early match put Finland back on top of the group, at least until Serbia had taken their win. Poland's win over Portugal meant the two swapped places, with Poland moving up one to third, only to move back down when news of Belgium's win came through. Belgium hosts Poland on 15 Nov, when Finland hosts Armenia and needs a win to stay in contention.

10 - Serbia 8 - Finland 7 - Belgium, Poland* 4 - Portugal* 2 - Kazakhstan 1 - Armenia, Azerbaijan.

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group B
19:00   FT   Ukraine    2 : 0    Scotland
20:00   FT   Georgia    1 : 3    Italy
21:00   FT   France     5 : 0    Faroe Islandes

So the year ends as it began, with Ukraine holding the European Knock-out Championship. Italy's win lifted them into a qualifying spot, but only for an hour, and only if one believes in the Faroes winning from behind.

9 - Scotland, France 7 - Italy 6 - Ukraine* 4 - Lithuania* 3 - Georgia 0 - Faroes.

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group C
19:15   FT   Malta     2 : 1    Hungary
20:00   FT   Turkey    5 : 0    Moldova
20:15   FT   Bosnia    0 : 4    Greece

Malta ascended to the giddy heights of fifth, and remembered that Hungary was in a qualifying position just a week ago. Turkey take advantage of Norway's week off to top the group from Greece. The two leaders meet in the next matches, on 24 March.

9 - Turkey*, Greece* 6 - Norway* 4 - Bosnia 3 - Malta*, Hungary 1 - Moldova

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group D
20:30   FT   Ireland    1 : 1    Czechia
20:45   FT   Slovakia   1 : 4    Germany
21:00   FT   Wales      3 : 1    Cyprus

The draw is the best result of the campaign so far for the Irish, who should be able to beat San Marino in November. It's also the first point for Wales.

10 - Czechia 9 - Germany* 6 - Slovakia 3 - Wales*, Cyprus* 1 - Ireland* 0 - San Marino**

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group E
15:00   FT   Andorra    0 : 3    Macedonia
17:00   FT   Russia     2 : 0    Estonia
19:00   FT   Croatia    2 : 0    England

No trouble this time for Macedonia, who somehow conspired to lose when they last played in Andorra. Croatia's win means it's surprisingly tight at the top. Macedonia has a chance to take an outright lead when they host Russia next month. But Russia will top the group with a two-goal win. Exciting!

7 - England, Croatia*, Macedonia 4 - Russia** 0 - Estonia**, Andorra*

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group F
20:05   FT   Iceland             1 : 2    Sweden
20:15   FT   Liechtenstein       0 : 4    Denmark
21:00   FT   Northern Ireland    1 : 0    Latvia

No surprise to see Sweden taking another win, but Denmark and Northern Ireland's victories means they take out a psychological lead on pre-tournament favourites Spain. In the next round, next March, Spain hosts Denmark, and Northern Ireland travels to Liechtenstein.

12 - Sweden 7 - Denmark*, N Ireland 3 - Latvia* Spain* Iceland 0 - Liechtenstein

  EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group G
18:00   FT   Belarus       4 : 2    Slovenia
20:15   FT   Luxembourg    0 : 1    Bulgaria
20:30   FT   Netherlands   2 : 1    Albania

Again, no surprise to see Bulgaria edging Romania out of the top two this week, nor that the Dutch went top. The Dutch and Romanians meet next March.

10 - Netherlands 8 - Bulgaria 7 - Romania* 4 - Belarus 3 - Slovenia* 1 - Albania* 0 - Luxembourg*

linkpage | European |

All of last week's top 10 were in action this week, though with two of them playing against each other, not all could win.

#33 Arizona St. 21 vs. #1 Southern Cal 28
 Baylor 31 vs. #2 Texas 63
#3 Ohio St. 38 vs. Michigan St. 7
 Syracuse 17 vs. #4 West Virginia 41
#5 Florida 17 vs. #10 Auburn 27
#6 Virginia Tech 3 vs. #20 Boston College 22 (30)
#7 Michigan 17 vs. #15 Penn St. 10
#16 UCLA 20 vs. #8 Oregon 30
 Cincinnati 17 vs. #9 Louisville 23

There are no rewards for holding the runaway leaders to within one goal, nor for putting thirty points past the second-best side in the contest.

Looking next at Mismatch Of The Day

#119 Temple 9 vs. #19 Clemson 63 (1)
#117 Fla. International 0 vs. #26 Miami 35 (2)
#108 Miami (Ohio) 0 vs. #118 Buffalo 0

Viewers of ESPN's Mismatch Of The Day programme were disappointed to see the crunch Bottom Ten clash rained out; they'll try again on Sunday. Here's the rest of the news from the Upset-o-meter:

 Vanderbilt 24 vs. #13 Georgia 22 (48)
#25 Texas Tech 6 vs. Colorado 30 (43)
#27 Iowa 28 vs. Indiana 31 (42)
 Utah 15 vs. Wyoming 31 (42)
 UAB 33 vs. #113 Rice 34 (39)
 Idaho 24 vs. Louisiana Tech 14 (37)
 Toledo 14 vs. Kent St. 40 (34)
 Oklahoma St. 42 vs. Kansas 32 (33)
 Colorado St. 21 vs. Air Force 24 (32)
 Wake Forest 25 vs. N.C. State 23 (31)
 Oregon St. 27 vs. Washington 17 (31)
#6 Virginia Tech 3 vs. #20 Boston College 22 (30)
#24 Missouri 19 vs. #35 Texas A&M 25 (30)

It's getting difficult to call Kent's progress anything of a surprise - last year's worst side has now managed five wins in a row for the first time in three decades, and is in nosebleed territory at number 93 on the rankings. Another five wins to complete the season and we'll seriously be touting their claims for a bowl game. Heck, carry on at this rate and they'll be playing Cmich for the conference title.

The Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
 1    1    1   SCALF   PX   1583   147.3   0   Southern California
 2    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1503   130.9   0   Texas
 8    3    3   OHIST   BX   1473   124.1   0   Ohio State
 5    4    4   WVIRG   BE   1394   143.2   0   W Virginia
10   10    5   AUBRN   SE   1375   126.5   0   Auburn
23    7    6   MICH    BX   1363   113.8   0   Michigan
15    8    7   OREGN   PX   1360   115.4   0   Oregon
21    5    8   FLORD   SE   1342   115.3   0   Florida
19    9    9   LSVLE   BE   1338   132.4   0   Louisville
20   11   10   NOTDM   XX   1321   116.4   1   Notre Dame
 4   12   11   LSU     SE   1317   130.1   0   LSU
22   14   12   CALIF   PX   1302   116.1   0   California
18   20   13   BOSCL   AC   1296   124.4   0   Boston College
 3    6   14   VTECH   AC   1295   129.3   0   Virginia Tech
17   18   15   WISCO   BX   1276   121.6   0   Wisconsin
26   17   16   GEOTC   AC   1263   122.3   1   Georgia Tech
14   23   17   OKLAH   BT   1260   121.9   0   Oklahoma
27   22   18   NBRSK   BT   1258   118.2   0   Nebraska
25   19   19   CLEMS   AC   1253   117.9   0   Clemson
 7   15   20   PENST   BX   1247   118.7   0   Penn State
37   21   21   BSEST   WA   1241   124.0   1   Boise State
11   16   22   UCLA    PX   1233   125.3   0   UCLA
 9   26   23   MIAFL   AC   1227   125.8   0   Miami-Florida
 6   28   24   TCU     MW   1217   132.8   1   TCU
12   13   25   GRGIA   SE   1205   130.9   0   Georgia
13   29   26   ALABM   SE   1204   127.6   0   Alabama
44   24   27   MISRI   BT   1190   114.6   0   Missouri
52   32   28   RUTGR   BE   1189   121.8   0   Rutgers
40   35   29   TEXAM   BT   1189   116.1   0   Texas A&M
54   30   30   TENSE   SE   1185   120.6   1   Tennessee

Aubrn's win lifts the side back into the top five. Vtech and Boscl split their difference following the upset win. Useful wins for Oklah and Nbrsk see those sides climb the rankings, UCLA and Grgia fall after poor losses, Rutgr and Texam enter the top 30 at the expense of Txstc and Iowa. Spare a thought for Alabm, stuck in 31st place for the second week.

The "Big" "Ten"

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
 8    3    3   OHIST   BX   1473   124.1   0   Ohio State
23    7    6   MICH    BX   1363   113.8   0   Michigan
17   18   16   WISCO   BX   1276   121.6   0   Wisconsin
 7   15   21   PENST   BX   1247   118.7   0   Penn State
24   27   33   IOWA    BX   1152   120.5   0   Iowa
55   43   38   PRDUE   BX   1099   113.9   0   Purdue
88   68   59   INDAN   BX   983    117.7   0   Indiana
29   55   61   NWSTN   BX   981    112.3   0   Northwestern
61   57   63   MICST   BX   974    120.4   0   Michigan State
42   56   64   MINNS   BX   972    118.1   0   Minnesota
95   98  103   ILLNS   BX   735    122.1   0   Illinois

Ohist and Mich really are the sides to beat in this round-robin division - they meet on 18 November (8.30), the last game for both sides, and the winner should be assured of a top-five bowl, if not a shot at the title game.

The South East

LY   LW   TW          Conf   Rat     RD   Idle
==================================================================
10   10    5   AUBRN   SE   1375   126.5   0   Auburn
21    5    8   FLORD   SE   1342   115.3   0   Florida
 4   12   11   LSU     SE   1317   130.1   0   LSU
12   13   25   GRGIA   SE   1205   130.9   0   Georgia
13   29   26   ALABM   SE   1204   127.6   0   Alabama
54   30   30   TENSE   SE   1185   120.6   1   Tennessee
56   31   31   ARKNS   SE   1184   134.1   1   Arkansas
46   40   42   SCARO   SE   1086   126.1   1   S Carolina
74   95   81   VNDRB   SE    871   127.1   1   Vanderbilt
94   85   86   KNTCY   SE    856   129.0   0   Kentucky
99   93   94   MISIP   SE    793   121.2   0   Mississippi
96  100   99   MSPST   SE    754   134.4   1   Mississippi State

Florida's defeat has thrown the East division wide open, and one would expect their match against Georgia (28 Oct, 8.30) to decide the division, though wunderkinder South Carolina are still in contention. Arkansas remains on top of the South West division, thanks to its surprise victory over Auburn last week.

NASN returns to its regular coverage next week, with two live games on Saturday evening: a Game To Be Determined at 5pm, followed by #26 Alabama -v- #30 Tennessee at 8.30. For UK viewers, there's a Pacific Ten game on tape at 2pm Monday, and a Big Twelve game at 5pm; viewers in Europe will see these matches from 10.30am Tuesday.

This post has been revised, after deliberately omitting the result of the Vanderbilt - Georgia game, in order to avoid spoiling viewership of delayed television coverage. Don't know why we bothered, a statement that could also apply to the Georgia team.

linkpage | NCAA |

Normal service resumes in the big European leagues, with wins for all the leaders. Defending English champions managed to injure two goalkeepers in their testy 1:0 win at Reading. Win of the week-end was Werder Bremen's 6:0 tonking at Bochum. Hamburg's losing sequence continued, 2:1 at home to Schalke. From the Upset-o-meter:

ES CVG-VAL 3:2 (40)
SC RAN-ICT 0:1 (38)
FR REN-AUX 3:1 (37)
FR NIC-LOR 3:0 (36)
ES OSA-SAN 0:1 (36)
IT REG-ROM 1:0 (35)
ES GET-RMD 1:0 (34)
E1 MID-EVE 2:1 (34)
E2 LEI-SOT 3:2 (33)
E2 LUT-BIR 3:2 (33)
IT PAL-ATL 2:3 (33)
ES LEV-MAL 0:1 (32)
IT EMP-FIO 1:2 (30)
E2 LEE-STK 0:4 (30)
E2 SFW-BAN 2:1 (30)

English league division II

PNE   939   92.7   26
CDF   860   90.5   51
WBA   852   91.9   40
BIR   824   93.7  -75
WLV   782   90.2  -29
CPL   780   89.1  -45
LUT   777   90.3   60
PLY   768   89.5   47
SOT   764   89.0  -22
COV   737   89.5  - 7
BNL   735   89.9   42
LEI   716   90.2  - 7
IPS   710   90.2   56
LEE   705   89.1  -83
STK   705   89.7   35
SUN   699   90.0  - 2
CCR   698  108.5  122
DER   698   91.1   50
NOR   695   89.7 -113
QPR   657   91.8   42
SFW   650   89.7  -50
BAN   613  106.5  -62
HUL   609   91.8   21
SEN   589  103.8  -43

BRI (III)   656   106.8   20
CRW (III)   735   110.5   52
MIL (III)   587   109.4   -51

It's about this time of the season, about 15 games in, that the Glicko rankings coincide with the league table. We're quietly confident that there will be a west midlands team involved in the Division II playoff or promotion race.

Scottish Division A

CEL  1080   95.5   62
RAN   914   94.8  -68
HRT   846   86.9   22
ICT   805   91.5   10
HBS   786   91.2  -10
ABD   785   92.9  -58
KLM   774   92.0    2
STM   713  109.8  -49
FAL   701   93.0   50
MTW   691   93.0   43
DNF   649   92.8  -35
DDU   624   96.2  - 5

GRE (II)   637   165.4   -93
LVG (II)   552   113.4   38

Celtic first, the rest nowhere. Aberdeen and St Mirren are falling down after their good starts, Falkirk and Motherwell are rising back up.

The Tenth Round of the FA Cup (1024 clubs, including byes, makes this the fünfhundert-zwölf-final) took place this week-end. The chances of Trafford playing at Old Trafford took a nosedive after the North West Counties (a Division IX) side lost 1:0 to Harrogate (VI-N). Nuneaton (VI-N) won't be taking this year's UEFA Cup finalists to a replay, because they lost 1:0 to Hucknall (VI-N). Hornchurch (VIII-SE-N) take Welling (VI-S) to a replay, while former league sides Newport, Merthyr, and Wimbledon all progress. Farnborough and Yeading will replay. Upset of the round was Wisbeach (IX), who beat Solihill (VII) 2:1.

The draw for the Ninth Round (zweihundert-fünfzigsechs-final) has already been made, with sides from Division V entering. The tie of the round pits the two leaders of that division against each other, Dagenham and Redbridge host Oxford in one of five all-Conference ties. Wimbledon will travel to Exeter, while Farnborough will host St Albans if they win their replay. Forest Green will travel to Stevenage, and the tie in the north-east pits Newcastle Benfield-Bay-Plastics against York. Matches to be played on 28 October.

European matches, plus E2, this mid-week.

linkpage | Tables |

Four matches and two upsets as the CFL regular season moves towards its end.

mon-sas 26:27 (31)
tor-edm 28:25
win-ham 29:22
bcl-cal 25:32 (33)

BCL  1112   93.8   0   W
TOR  1093   95.7   0   E
CAL  1066   91.9   0   W
MON   999   96.4   0   E
WIN   984   93.5   0   E
SAS   976   92.2   0   W
EDM   890   94.1   0   W
HAM   843   96.5   0   E

BCL have won the West division, and will take a bye through the opening week; Edmonton and Hamilton will miss the play-offs entirely. There will be no crossover this year.

CFL South

With the Lucky Charms taking a bye, there were three matches involving four near-perfect sides.

* Philadelphia 24 vs. * New Orleans 27
* Seattle 30 vs. St. Louis 28
* Chicago vs. Arizona T:T

The Marxists drop off the pace, allowing the Boy Scouts, Blue Man Group and Pink Rhinosceri to take the advantage. Three upset wins:

 Buffalo 17  vs. Detroit 20 (49)
 Cincinnati 13 vs. Tampa Bay 14 (49)
 Tennessee 25 vs. Washington 22 (50)

The full table:

CHI   1269   134.0   PN   Chicago Pink Rhinosceri
IND   1233   141.2  *CS   Indianapolis Lucky Charms
SEA   1178   134.6   PW   Seattle Blue Men Group
NOB   1164   132.3   PS   New Orleans Boy Scouts
DEN   1157   140.7   CW   Denver Ants
NEM   1150   138.5  *CE   New England New Democracy
SDF   1133   136.6   CW   San Diego Bolts
CAR   1113   130.4   PS   Carolina Pussycats
NJG   1089   135.7   PE   New Jersey A
PHI   1083   128.2   PE   Philadelphia Marxists
BAL   1082   130.7   CN   Baltimore Erinas
STL   1062   130.7   PW   St Louis Mouflons
JAC   1059   134.9  *CS   Jacksonville Browns Lane
ATL   1043   135.9   PS   Atlanta Cattacciano
MIN   1017   137.3  *PN   Minnesota Lapponites
DAL   1015   135.5   PE   Irving Asteroids
CIN   1013   139.9   CN   Cincinnati Bungles
NJJ   1007   128.2   CE   New Jersey B
PIT    982   135.0   CN   Pittsburgh Terrorists
KAN    926   133.9   CW   Kansas City Pie Scales
BUF    912   131.3   CE   Buffalo Cover Your Eyes With Feathers
SFF    899   129.9   PW   St Francisville Fortyfour-Niners
BOT    883   142.0   PS   Manchester United
WAS    880   129.1   PE   Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons
CLE    873   138.0  *CN   Aston Villa
BOG    871   136.7  *PN   Bay of Green
ARI    855   131.6   PW   Arizona Cautions
HOU    845   136.0   CS   Houston Moocows
TEN    841   135.1   CS   Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks
DET    837   133.0   PN   Detroit Peugeots
MIA    804   130.7   CE   Miami December Collapse
OAK    756   139.6   CW   Oakland Lost

NASN coverage next week: SAS-TOR, 9.30am Saturday; viewers in Europe can also see PIT-ATL (7pm CET Sun), WAS-IND (10pm), and NJG-DAL (2.30 Tues). There will also be highlights of CAR-CIN (6pm Tues). The Asteroids//A match will also feature on Fiveus next Wednesday, but we've Pink Rhinosceri/Cautions to-morrow.

linkpage | NCAA |

Regular commentator Mr. Pokery wrote,

one of these days I would like to conclude that your Glicko NCAA list is exactly one of "more accurate", "worse" or "about as accurate as" the other NCAA polls that exist. But which one?

Good question. In order to determine the overall utility of Glickoblog-NCAA, one must first provide an objective means of measuring all 119 sides at once. Polls of the top 25 don't work, because they're only providing a top 25, and tell us nothing about the race for 33rd, never mind 93rd. Polls also seem to be a self-perpetuating myth.

If F*x Sparts would care to declare how they compile their First To Worst list, I may treat it with some respect. Ditto for the Anderson Sports rankings. Of the other BCS components, Billingsley uses a thoroughly complicated and not-fully-explained formula that appears to follow the polls more closely than other rankings. One can suggest that the additional tweakings are added with this end in mind. These two are closed-source algorithms, and I find it difficult to trust them.

Colley performs a matrix operation based purely on this year's results; it's an interesting technique, and could be used with the last 72 of European football to determine the season's champions. Sagarin is the closest to Glickoblog-NCAA's approach - he uses a degenerate Glicko (Elo) formula, and discards last year's results entirely. Wolfe uses a probabilistic model. Massey is effectively Elo, with margin of victory implicitly considered.

Perhaps the closest approach to an objective top-to-bottom measurement would be to average out these rankings, and others produced by open-source calculations. The BCS component rankings and all available data are summarised on Massey's site. It would surely be best to use a Borda count to rank these pieces of data, just as Eurovision really should use Borda to determine progression from the semi-final and from year to year. (Kate Ryan for the Wonning! Oh.)

A quick check - I've got SCALF-TEXAS-OHIST as the top three. A Borda count of the major computer rankings makes the top three SCALF-MICH-OHIST; the inclusion of TEXAS at second on my rankings - the computers have it around 15th - suggests that Glickoblog-NCAA disagrees with the perceived consensus regarding head-to-head victories, and/or is carrying more weight from last season, and/or is including information about the half of the season to come.

Further down, the consensus seems to be that KENTS now ranks at or about number 69; I'm putting them somewhere closer to position 90, again basing much from their pisspoor performance last season. And it was poor - a final score of +0-11.

A Borda count for the bottom four shows TEMPL-EMICH-FLINT-LOMON, with MIOHO below BUFFL before their delayed game. Again, these accord closely with my results, though BUFFL seems to be getting way too much credit for beating TEMPL.

I'm not going to make any decisions part-way through the season - it may well be that the consensus opinion at the moment will prove to be incorrect, just as it was last year with NOTDM. However, the main divergence between Glickoblog-NCAA and the consensus appears to stem from my carrying forward much information from one season to another, quite possibly more than is compensated for by forcing up the RD.

Lest we forget, it took the BCS the better part of a decade to come up with their current formula, and it still only determines a number 1 to general satisfaction. BCS won't tell us who is number 5, let alone number 64. Glickoblog-NCAA will give you an indication of whether your team is above average, below average, or close to the average.

After sufficient tweaking - and it's been four seasons of Glickoblog-football before I'm reasonably confident that I'm capturing the right data - I would expect Glickoblog-NCAA to be no worse than the open-source computer rankings listed above, and hopefully just as credible. We'll never know the true picture, but I'm confident that I'll be able to make a small contribution to understanding it.

Other polls are also available...

In the recent Box Clever article, one of the tests I proposed for a functional Glicko system was its ability to beat the bookmakers. The bookies are already in on the act, as the Potomac Post reports.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the leading consultant for Nevada sports books, started publishing their own OddsMakers Top 25 last year. The firm's four college football oddsmakers were already preparing ratings for all 119 teams, so they figured they would each submit "ballots" and calculate the results for use in their radio shows.

This week's LVSC Top Ten is as follows:

1. Ohio State (BCS 1, G-N 3)
2. Texas (9, 2)
3. Southern Cal (2, 1)
4. Michigan (3, 6)
5. Florida (6, 8)
6. California (10, 12)
7. LSU (18, 11)
8. Louisville (7, 9)
9. Tennessee (11, 30)
10. Notre Dame (8, 11)

Our numbers 4 and 5, WVIRG and AUBRN, are 13 and 16 according to the LVSC. Generally, the Meadows team takes points off the South-East conference.

The comments are mildly interesting, but are derailed by the morons who are hypnotised by the polls of coaches - Mike at 9.54 is a particular example.

Elsewhere, there's a putative poll of bloggers run by a fan of MICH. Their top ten this week:

1. OHIST (1, 3)
2. MICH (3, 6)
3. SCALF (2, 1)
4. TEXAS (9, 2)
5. WVIRG (4, 5)
6. TENSE (11, 30)
7. AUBRN (5, 4)
8. LSVLE (7, 9)
9. FLORD (6, 8)
10. CALIF (10, 12)

What's with the obsessive Tennessee fandom, people? Beat Calif and Georgia, yes; lost to Florida, yes; beat three makeweights by margins of 34, 26, and 1. Decent-ish side, probably in the mid-teens, but I'm yet to convinced that they deserve a top-10 place.

Anyway, the requirement to put in a poll is that one must actively support a particular team, which leaves this blog completely ineligible to participate.

linkpage | NCAA |

Group A Of Death

      Chelsea - Barcelona    1:0
Werder Bremen - Levski Sofia 2:0

9 CHE 4 BAR 4 WER 0 LSF

Levski are now out of it, surely, and it would be difficult not to see Chelsea winning the group. A draw at the Neu Camp on Hallowe'en would secure progression, and leave Barcelona staring at the UEFA Cup.

Group B Of Two Halves

Sporting Lisbon - Bayern Munich  0:1
    Inter Milan - Spartak Moscow 3:1

9 BAY 4 SLS 3 INT 1 SPM

Bayern still haven't conceded a goal, and this was Inter's first win. The return match against Lisbon on 22 Nov will be critical.

Group C For Second

Galatasaray - PSV Eindhoven 1:2
   Bordeaux - Liverpool     0:1

7 LIV 7 PSV 1 GAL 1 BDX

Two victories that were never as close as they looked, and the group is still coming down to a tremendous crunch in five weeks.

Group D Of How Will Portugal Mess This Up?

Olympiakos - Roma            0:1 (36)
  Valencia - Shaktar Donetsk 2:0

9 VAL 6 ROM 1 OLY 1 SHA

We may as well put this group to bed until the last round of matches, there's nothing to see here.

Group E Of Surprise

     Dinamo Kyiv - Lyon        0:3
Steaua Bucharest - Real Madrid 1:4

9 LYN 6 RMD 3 STE 0 KYV

Well, Madrid looks to have booked their place in the last sixteen, joining the surely-qualified Lyon.

Group F Of Apologies

      Celtic - Benfica       3:0
Manchester B - FC Copenhagen 3:0

9 MUN 6 CEL 1 COP 1 BEN

Well, that's sorted that group out. Benfica needs to score three to steal second from Celtic, and the Scots have two away goals and a one-goal deficit to overturn in the Battle of Britain five weeks hence.

Group G Of Giants

      Porto - Hamburg 4:1
CSKA Moscow - Arsenal 1:0 (34)

7 CSK 6 ANL 4 PTO 0 HAM

Another match, another Hamburg loss. Arsenal's defeat does put the cat amongst the pigeons, though.

Group H Of Pifflingly Easy

Anderlecht - AC Milan   0:1
     Lille - AEK Athens 3:1

7 ACM 5 LIL 2 AND 1 AEK

And we end with two non-upsets.

UEFA Cup

Group A:
      Livorno - Rangers 2:3 (35)
Maccabi Haifa - Auxerre 3:1
(Partizan Belgrade)

Group B:
Club Brugge - Bayer Leverkusen 1:1
   Besiktas - Tottenham        0:2
(Dinamo Bucuresti)

Group C:
    AZ Alkmaar - Braga   3:0
Slovan Liberec - Sevilla 0:0 (21)
(Grasshoppers Zurich)

Group D:
  Osasuna - Heerenveen 0:0
Odense BK - Parma      1:2
(Lens)

Group E:
       Basle - Feyenoord 1:1
Wisla Krakow - Blackburn 1:2
(AS Nancy)

Group F:
 Sparta Prague - Espanyol      0:2
Austria Vienna - Zulte Wagerem 1:4
(Ajax)

Group G:
  Panathinaikos - Hapoel Tel-Aviv   2:0
Rapid Bucuresti - Paris St. Germain 0:0
(Mlada Boleslav)

Group H:
          Newcastle - Fenerbahce 1:0
Eintracht Frankfurt - Palermo    1:2
(Celta Vigo)

Auxerre would, perhaps, have hoped to take a win against Haifa. Spurs have one of the two wins they need to progress from the deadly minefield of Group B. AZ and Liberec have the advantages from Group C. Parma might take advantage of the draw in Group D's other game, and Blackburn have managed to win more than one game this season, and that becomes a team best. Still can't see Wagerem progressing from Group F. Panathanaikos from G, Newcastle and Palermo from H have advantages.

linkpage | European |

A surprisingly upset-free week in the NCAA, though - as ever - there are stories to tell. We start with one late result from last week:

#111 Miami (Ohio) 38  vs. #118 Buffalo 31

Moving straight on to Last Week's Top Ten:

#1 SCALF - no game
#2 Texas 22 vs. #18 Nebraska 20
 Indiana 3  vs. #3 Ohio St. 44
#4 West Virginia 37  vs. Connecticut 11
 Tulane 13 vs. #5 Auburn 38
 Iowa 6 vs. #6 Michigan 20
#7 Oregon 23 vs. Washington St. 34 (43)
#8 FLORD - no game
#9 Louisville 28 vs. Syracuse 13
#22 UCLA 17 vs. #10 Notre Dame 20

Two other matches between highly-ranked sides:

#16 Georgia Tech 7 vs. #19 Clemson 31
#26 Alabama 13 vs. #30 Tennessee 16

Just a few upsets - here's the complete list:

#7 Oregon 23 vs. Washington St. 34 (43)
 Toledo 13 vs. #115 E. Michigan 17 (41)
 Air Force 12 vs. San Diego St. 19 (37)
 UTEP 17 vs. Houston 34 (35)
#108 Marshall 31 vs. UAB 24 (35)
 Utah 31 vs. New Mexico 34 (33)
#104 Rice 40 vs. UCF 29 (33)
 Colorado St. 0 vs. Wyoming 24 (31)

They'll be dancing on the streets of Ypsilanti this week-end, though that's got very little to do with the season-best win for EMICH. Good win for a bloke called Marshall there, while the Battle of the Snacks ends in a clear victory for Rice over Alphabetti Spaghetti.

Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
==================================================================
 1    1    1   SCALF   PX   1583   147.3   1   Southern California
 2    2    2   TEXAS   BT   1521   126.3   0   Texas
 8    3    3   OHIST   BX   1478   123.0   0   Ohio State
 5    4    4   WVIRG   BE   1401   141.1   0   W Virginia
10    5    5   AUBRN   SE   1377   126.4   0   Auburn
23    6    6   MICH    BX   1370   116.4   0   Michigan
20   10    7   NOTDM   XX   1347   112.6   0   Notre Dame
19    9    8   LSVLE   BE   1344   131.0   0   Louisville
21    8    9   FLORD   SE   1342   115.3   1   Florida
 4   11   10   LSU     SE   1325   128.1   0   LSU
18   13   11   BOSCL   AC   1318   119.6   0   Boston College
22   12   12   CALIF   PX   1314   113.6   0   California
 3   14   13   VTECH   AC   1310   125.5   0   Virginia Tech
15    7   14   OREGN   PX   1302   113.3   0   Oregon
17   15   15   WISCO   BX   1297   117.2   0   Wisconsin
25   19   16   CLEMS   AC   1288   113.0   0   Clemson
14   17   17   OKLAH   BT   1274   118.7   0   Oklahoma
 7   20   18   PENST   BX   1252   118.0   0   Penn State
37   21   19   BSEST   WA*  1249   122.8   0   Boise State
27   18   20   NBRSK   BT   1243   115.1   0   Nebraska
 9   23   21   MIAFL   AC   1231   125.3   0   Miami-Florida
26   16   22   GEOTC   AC   1225   117.2   0   Georgia Tech
 6   24   23   TCU     MW*  1224   131.5   0   TCU
54   30   24   TENSE   SE   1223   115.9   0   Tennessee
52   28   25   RUTGR   BE   1217   116.5   0   Rutgers
12   25   26   GRGIA   SE   1212   129.1   0   Georgia
44   27   27   MISRI   BT   1209   111.0   0   Missouri
40   29   28   TEXAM   BT   1204   113.1   0   Texas A&M
11   22   29   UCLA    PX   1203   119.6   0   UCLA
56   31   30   ARKNS   SE   1194   131.9   0   Arkansas

TEXAS played a better team, and move further clear of OHIST; if there's any logic, the side will advance in the other ratings, and possibly in the polls, though one never can fathom the criteria there. OREGN's collapse and NOTDM's good win puts the Parisians into seventh place, the first time we've suggested that they have a decent claim to a Top Five bowl game. The loss for NBRSK costs them little ground, because it was to a clearly superior side; GEOTC loses more after defeat against a peer. After two weeks at number 31, ARKNS creeps into the top 30, but that owes more to ALABM's loss than their win. Of course, with fashion being what it is, expect TENSE's win to be confirmation that they are demigods with ambrosia and custard and that their feet do not touch the ground (which would surely make every pass an incomplete pass...)

The Jimmy Conference

LY   LW   TW           Conf   R     RD    Idle
==================================================================
 45   35   34   TULSA   CU  1147   115.9   0   Tulsa
 66   53   56   SMISS   CU   996   120.6   0   S Miss
 53   49   58   UTEP    CU   983   115.5   0   UTEP
 84   77   71   ECARL   CU   926   112.4   0   E Carolina
 93   83   74   HOUST   CU   914   111.9   0   Houston
 77   80   85   SMU     CU   852   111.5   0   SMU
 76   82   92   UCF     CU   818   118.7   0   UCF
 81   90   94   UAB     CU   799   113.0   0   UAB
112  104   98   RICE    CU   778   120.0   0   Rice
 65   98  100   MEMPH   CU   751   116.3   0   Memphis
 98  108  103   MARSL   CU   740   123.7   0   Marshall
115  107  107   TULNE   CU   700   121.6   0   Tulane

No surprise to see Tulsa (+5-1) leading the way here; only UTEP and Houston (both +4-3) have winning records at this stage. It's a conference of two divisions, with the three winning sides all in the West side.

The Western Alliance Conference

 37   21   19   BSEST   WA  1249   122.8   0   Boise State
 43   47   45   NEVDA   WA  1062   111.4   0   Nevada
 83   56   52   HAWII   WA  1008   121.3   0   Hawaii
 38   78   79   FRSST   WA   883   115.8   0   Fresno State
 59   92   84   LSATC   WA   854   118.7   0   Louisiana Tech
110   85   90   SNJST   WA   835   125.8   0   San Jose State
113  102  102   IDAHO   WA   740   124.9   0   Idaho
102  109  111   UTHST   WA   655   113.9   0   Utah State
117  116  116   NMXST   WA   579   143.6   0   New Mexico State

Boise (+7-0) or Bust for this conference, and they're the best hopes for a conference other than the Self-Important Five to get into the major bowls. In this round-robin conference, the game between Boise and San Jose (11 Nov, 11pm) shuld decide the title. The collapse of Fresno (+1-6) is worth noting; close to the title last year, and a good win to open the season briefly pushed the side into the national Top Thirty. Since then, it's been more bust than a Samantha Fox lookalike convention. NMXST (+0-4) is a noteworthy exercise in futility, but has climbed a place because other sides have been even more rubbish.

Next week's NASN coverage: Saturday's live games are NOTDM-NAVY (5pm) and GRGIA-FLORD (8.30, repeated 5.30am Sunday and 4.30 Monday in the UK). There will be an unspecified PX game at 11.30 Sunday morning.

CFL, week 19

sas-tor 13:09 (34)
edm-mon 30:20
cal-win 13:28
ham-bcl 17:23

BCL   1121   92.7   0   W
CAL   1039   90.0   0   W
SAS   1005   90.4   0   W
EDM    920   92.1   0   W

TOR   1061   93.5   0   E
WIN   1012   91.4   0   E
MON    967   94.1   0   E
HAM    834   95.2   0   E

The Western side is all sorted - BCL have the win, Calgary second, Saskatchewan third. In the East, Toronto and Montréal play for first place next week; Winnipeg will take their deserved second place with a win over Hamilton, and a win for Toronto.

linkpage | NCAA |

The majority of away goals in EI were scored at the Madjeski Stadium, where Arsenal confirmed that Reading wasn't going to make the European League this season, not after a 4:0 drubbing. A spot in the Intertoto, though, is more likely than relegation.

Elsewhere, it was Battle of the Top Teams. In Norway, Rosenborg beat Brann, and should have no further trouble regaining their league title. In France, Marseille lost to Lyon 4:1. In Spain, Real Madrid inflicted the second defeat of the week on Barcelona, this time 2:0. And in Germany, Werder beat Bayern 3:1. Hamburg won, and that becomes a season-best.

Upset-watch

RU ZSP-LOK 4:1 (40)
E2 NOR-CDF 1:0 (37)
IT ACM-PAL 0:2 (34)
ES DEP-AMD 1:0 (32)
ES RMD-BAR 1:0 (32)
SC HRT-KLM 0:2 (31)
DE BYL-HAM 1:2 (30)
E1 MID-NWC 1:0 (30)
E1 WIG-MCY 4:0 (30)

IT ROM-CHI 1:1 (20)

The other surprises: a win for Zenit St Petersburg, one for Norwich over the E2 leaders, Italian powerhouse AC Milan falling, Deportivo, Kilmarnock, Middlesbrough, and Wigan all taking notable wins.

1. Bundesliga

WER  1133    91.7   76
BAY  1088    93.2   17
SNV  1075    93.4  -20
NUR  1039   120.6  -39
STT  1008   113.9   38
BIE   994   120.6   49
EIN   984   108.5  -86
COT   965   119.8  -60
HER   964   101.5   15
BMO   954   119.6    3
AAA   937   122.0   17
BDO   929   118.2  - 8
BYL   924    99.3  -41
HAM   921    87.9  -25
WLF   918   121.3   21
MAI   892   119.6  -69
HAN   869   120.6    8
BOC   850   123.6    6

Werder have a good month, and though the shine's been taken off Bayern, they still improve.

League 1

LYN  1255    91.4   121
NCY  1095   103.1   24
TOU  1093   109.0   55
MAR  1068    94.3   13
LIL  1044    89.7  - 8
SET  1036   112.9  -41
PSG  1006    90.1   14
LEN   992    97.7   45
LEM   975   109.4  -41
BDX   957    91.1  -78
AUX   947    91.6   63
VCN   943   107.0  -21
SCX   934    96.6   31
REN   900   100.3   102
LOR   896   107.5  -142
MON   876    94.9  -69
SED   862   108.0  - 3
TRY   842   109.9  -31
NTS   823   110.8  -49
NIC   806   112.6  -19

STR   783   124.3  -24

Lyon confirm their status as one of the biggest sides in Europe. Don't read too much into the big moves for Rennes or Lorient, it's reversion to the mean following an unusual opening. Monaco and Bordeaux have more significant changes.

linkpage | Results |

The Lucky Charms win again, the Pink Rhinosceri have the bye. In the one match we rather expected to end in a 0:0 draw, the Lost beat the Cautions. Oakland now goes on to play Kenstate, Arizona takes a trip to a Temple. Five upsets in thirteen games in the CFL-S.

48	 Jacksonville 7 vs. Houston 27
53	 Philadelphia 21 vs. Tampa Bay 23
49	 San Diego 27 vs. Kansas City 30
50	 Arizona 9 vs. Oakland 22
49	 Minnesota 31 vs. Seattle 13

Which leaves the table looking like this:

CHI   1269   134.0   1   PN
IND   1246   137.8   0   CS
DEN   1175   135.7   0   CW
NEM   1171   133.4   0   CE
NOB   1164   132.3   1   PS
NJG   1124   128.5   0   PE
SEA   1117   128.5   0   PW
BAL   1082   130.7   1   CN
JAC   1081   130.0   0   CS
MIN   1081   131.2   0   PN
ATL   1080   128.6   0   PS
CIN   1071   132.1   0   CN
SDF   1065   130.8   0   CW
CAR   1062   124.3   0   PS
STL   1062   130.7   1   PW
NJJ   1030   123.0   0   CE
PHI   1024   123.5   0   PE
KAN    991   128.5   0   CW
DAL    980   128.3   0   PE
BOT    956   135.3   0   PS
PIT    946   127.8   0   CN
HOU    913   130.4   0   CS
BOG    908   129.6   0   PN
SFF    899   129.9   1   PW
BUF    893   126.7   0   CE
WAS    869   126.3   0   PE
CLE    856   133.8   0   CN
TEN    841   135.1   1   CS
OAK    814   131.9   0   CW
DET    812   127.1   0   PN
ARI    803   125.3   0   PW
MIA    770   124.3   0   CE

The NJ/A/Asteroids match on Fiveus tomorrow is a Colin Murray-free zone, we're pleased to report. Next week's six-pack on NASN Europe: Browns Lane -v- Marxists (live, 7pm CET Sunday), Lucky Charms -v- Ants (live, 10pm), Asteroids -v- Pussycats (live, 2am Monday if there's no rounders, 10.30 whether there is or not), Cattacciano -v- Bungles (2.30 Monday), Mouflons -v- Bolts (5pm Monday), New Democracy -v- Lapponites (live, 2.30 Tuesday). That last game, and possibly the Asteroids' game, will be live on Channel 5 in the UK.

More NCAA thoughts

We're cheered by the Vegas Oddsmakers' poll:

1 OHIST
2 TEXAS
3 MICH
4 CALIF
5 LSAST
6 SCALF
7 FLORD
8 TENSE
9 LSVLE
10 NOTDM

Major props for supporting Texas; two raised eyebrows for dropping Scalf down to sixth; surely this kink will iron itself out when the side plays Calif. Still no love for WVIRG (14) or AUBRN (15), and MIAFL is a surprise at number 20. We do particularly like the explanation of why the polls and the Meadows Power Rankings are so far apart: the discrepancies will go away when events prove we're right.

why is Georgia still in the top 25 in two of the three human polls after losing at home to Commodore 64? asks the PB Sportsblog. Er, because it's GRGIA, and hence infinitely more bankable than BSEST? The latter is 18th amongst the oddsmakers; the former is not in the top 25.

The Michigan Bloggers' Poll has:

1 OHIST
2 MICH
3 SCALF
4 TEXAS
5 WVIRG
6 TENSE
7 AUBRN
8 LSVLE
9 FLORD
10 CALIF

Mich and Tense are this season's fashionistas - LSU and BOSCL are particularly poorly served here.

linkpage | NCAA |

Many of the summer champions are crowned, or nearly so.

Lithuania: FK Kaunas
Armenia: Pyunik Yerevan
Estonia: Levadia Talinn
Faroes: HB Tørshaven
Iceland: FH Rekjavik

Others set to win include CSKA Moskva, Rosenborg, Tempere, BATE Borisov, and Ventspils.

There's still a possibility that Luch Energia will finish in fifth position in Russia, and a possible Intertoto place. Why is this of note? Because Luch come from that well-known European city of Vladivostok, nearer to Vancouver than St Petersburg.

Cup week in most of Europe, with most of the surprises coming in England.

Chesterfield - West Ham 2:1 (48)
Notts County - Southampton 2:0 (43)
Charlton - Bolton 1:0 (43)
Leeds - Southend 1:3 (32)
St Ettienne - Marseille 4:1 (30)
Sampdoria - Lazio 2:0 (30)

Crewe - Manchester Buccaneers 1:1 (24)
Leicester - Birmingham Aston Browns 2:2 (17)
Port Vale - Norwich 0:0 (16)
Roma - Ascoli 2:2 (16)

All the big sides went through in England after extra time. Not so in the French league cup, where Monaco lost on kicks from the penalty mark after drawing 0:0 at Reims. Panathanaikos lost at AEK Athens, 1:2 (53), but this doesn't count to the official Upset-o-meter as the sides' aggregate RD is above 225.

Football League Division I

CHE  1311   92.5   50
MUN  1194   92.9    3
ANL  1149   90.2   24
LIV  1130   86.8   21
BOL  1058   91.2   66
TOT  1056   88.8   72
BLK  1024   91.1   26
EVE  1010   93.2  -21
AVL  1000   93.1   16
FUL   984   95.2    0
NWC   983   88.8  -30
POR   968   92.5  -70
MID   953   91.0    2
REA   947   94.2  - 1
MCY   877   94.2    2
CHA   872   94.4  - 6
WIG   872   94.3  -35
WAT   843   94.3   16
WHM   835   88.6  -131
SFU   741   99.7   15

It's a very long way between Chelsea and anyone else. Tottenham have had a cracking month, Bolton would have done if they hadn't lost to Charlton in mid-week. Portsmouth's great start to the season didn't continue, and West Ham is the new Hamburg, having not won since the invention of colour television.

Serie A

ACM  1173    98.7  -94
PAL  1132    93.6   25
INT  1092    90.2   21
SIE  1045   118.8   35
ROM  1043    91.2  - 6
ATL  1037   119.1  - 9
FIO  1029   117.7   120
LVO   985   114.5   39
CAT   964   117.5  -33
EMP   959   117.2  -44
REG   958   117.3   47
MES   933   118.3  -126
UDI   922   100.9   78
CAG   912   119.8   63
LAZ   904   102.7  -10
SAM   902   104.2   78
ASC   833   121.5  -67
TOR   820   118.6    8
PAR   809   100.8  -28
CHI   759   119.5  -49

JVE (II)   1139   unk    0

A couple of defeats take the shine off AC's month. Fiorentina recover after a poor start; Messina and Ascoli slip after strong starts, Sampdoria, Udinesi, and Cagliari go in the other direction.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Well, well, well. If they have March Madness in the NCAA Chucking An Orange Ball Around championships, does the NCAAball get Night Before The Clocks Go Back madness? Last year saw a defeat for a top-five side; this year... well, we'll come to that shortly. First, the matches that were of no interest, even to the participants. We'll begin in Division II:

 Maine 0 vs. Rhode Island 3

This match was decided in normal time, and the game report says it was in the teeth of a gale; the sides combined for precisely two passes all game. One other match for local bragging rights:

 #110 E. Michigan 15 vs. W. Michigan 18

Winners will play Michigan in the Mich-bowl. How did some other sides in the depths of the field fare?

 Ohio 17 vs. Kent St. 7
#105 Ball St. 20 vs. #109 Miami (Ohio) 17
#118 Buffalo 0 vs. #11 Boston College 41 (1)
 Bowling Green 14 vs. #119 Temple 28 (46)

Well, that's messed up Kent's chance of a bowl, for reasons we'll come to later. Ball's victory lifts the side back into the top 100, while Buffalo is - again - involved in Mismatch Of The Day.

But what's this? A Temple victory?! This never happens, except when they play Balls during Night Before The Clocks Go Back Madness, because Balls never wins on that night. Of course, it's going to be the upset of the week, if not the season. Without going into the top thirty, here's the rest of the Upset-o-meter results:

The Upset-o-meter

 Bowling Green 14 vs. #119 Temple 28 (46)
#20 Nebraska 29 vs. Oklahoma St. 41 (43)
 Arkansas St. 0 vs. Florida Atlantic 29 (38)
 Washington St. 37 vs. #29 UCLA 15 (31)
 South Florida 6 vs. Cincinnati 23 (31)

Surprise defeats for two sides in the top thirty there. Matches between the top 30 went to form.

#26 Georgia 14 vs. #9 Florida 21
#16 Clemson 7 vs. #13 Virginia Tech 24
#17 Oklahoma 26 vs. #27 Missouri 10
#21 Miamiflorida 23 vs. #22 Georgia Tech 30

We leave consideration of whether it is better to be disappointed by not seeing the match, or seeing a defeat, for the Pools Panel. Here's how Last Week's Top Ten got on.

Last week's top ten

#1 Southern Cal 31 vs. Oregon St. 33 (49)
#2 Texas 35 vs. #31 Texas Tech 31
 Minnesota 0 vs. #3 Ohio St. 44
  #4 WVIRG - no game
#5 Auburn 23 vs. Mississippi 17
 Northwestern 3 vs. #6 Michigan 17
#7 Notre Dame 38 vs. Navy 14
  #8 LSVLE - no game
#26 Georgia 14 vs. #9 Florida 21
  #10 LSU - no game

Our apologies to Temple, whose one moment of brilliance all season has been completely overshadowed by a shock defeat for the perpetual leaders, who just never looked like winning. It was very nearly +0-2 for the top two, as Texas came back from 21-0 down after the first quarter against their local rivals. That's going to make the table look a little different:

Top Thirty

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
==================================================================
 2    2    1   TEXAS   BT   1533   123.4   0   Texas
 8    3    2   OHIST   BX   1483   122.1   0   Ohio State
 1    1    3   SCALF   PX   1473   146.2   0   Southern California
 5    4    4   WVIRG   BE   1401   141.1   1   W Virginia
10    5    5   AUBRN   SE   1380   125.9   0   Auburn
23    6    6   MICH    BX   1377   115.1   0   Michigan
21    9    7   FLORD   SE   1364   111.9   0   Florida
20    7    8   NOTDM   XX   1360   110.0   0   Notre Dame
 3   13    9   VTECH   AC   1346   119.4   0   Virginia Tech
19    8   10   LSVLE   BE   1344   131.0   1   Louisville
 4   10   11   LSU     SE   1325   128.1   1   LSU
18   11   12   BOSCL   AC   1319   119.9   0   Boston College
22   12   13   CALIF   PX   1314   113.6   1   California
14   17   14   OKLAH   BT   1303   113.7   0   Oklahoma
15   14   15   OREGN   PX   1302   113.3   1   Oregon
17   15   16   WISCO   BX   1300   116.8   0   Wisconsin
 7   18   17   PENST   BX   1272   113.9   0   Penn State
26   22   18   GEOTC   AC   1259   112.4   0   Georgia Tech
25   16   19   CLEMS   AC   1258   108.8   0   Clemson
37   19   20   BSEST   WA   1249   122.8   1   Boise State
54   24   21   TENSE   SE   1246   111.7   0   Tennessee
 6   23   22   TCU     MW   1240   127.2   0   TCU
40   28   23   TEXAM   BT   1223   109.6   0   Texas A&M
52   25   24   RUTGR   BE   1217   116.5   1   Rutgers
56   30   25   ARKNS   SE   1199   130.9   0   Arkansas
 9   21   26   MIAFL   AC   1192   119.2   0   Miami-Florida
12   26   27   GRGIA   SE   1185   123.2   0   Georgia
27   20   28   NBRSK   BT   1185   112.9   0   Nebraska
44   27   29   MISRI   BT   1183   107.1   0   Missouri
16   31   30   TXSTC   BT   1179   112.9   0   Texas Tech

There we go, Texas on top, and Texas Tech on the bottom, profiting from defeat for UCLA and Alabama beating a rubbish side - indeed, the latter drops a spot to 33rd. Orgst climbs eight to 40. Michigan and Ohist meet later in the season; if this were played to-morrow, a Michigan win would close the gap by 89 points, but still leaves Ohist ahead by a dozen. We ought to look at the bottom, too.

Bottom Ten

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
====================================================================
102  111  110   UTHST   WA   655   113.9   1   Utah State
111  110  111   EMICH   MA   645   116.1   0   East Mich
89   114  112   LOMON   SB   638   118.8   0   Louisiana Monroe
80   109  113   MIOHO   MA   638   106.2   0   Miami-Ohio
106  113  114   UNLV    MW   638   126.8   0   UNLV
107  115  115   DUKE    AC   607   142.7   0   Duke
101  117  116   FLINT   SB   573   120.3   0   Florida International
117  116  117   NMXST   WA   572   141.4   0   New Mexico State
116  119  118   TEMPL   XX   551   131.5   0   Temple
118  118  119   BUFFL   MA   491   124.8   0   Buffalo

Hey, MA, they're looking at me

LY    LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
============================================================
 87   65   62   WMICH   MA   966   113.7   0   West Mich
 82   63   63   CMICH   MA   964   109.2   1   Central Mich
105   82   77   OHIO    MA   887   111.7   0   Ohio U
 70   78   81   NILNS   MA   880   113.3   0   N Illinois
 41   93   88   TOLED   MA   834   109.5   0   Toledo
 72   81   93   BOWLG   MA   798   117.5   0   Bowling Green
119   95   98   KENTS   MA   762   125.6   0   Kent State
100  105   99   BALLS   MA   753   109.8   0   Ball State
 92   97   100  AKRON   MA   749   109.4   0   Akron
111  110   111  EMICH   MA   645   116.1   0   East Mich
 80  109   113  MIOHO   MA   638   106.2   0   Miami-Ohio
118  118   119  BUFFL   MA   491   124.8   0   Buffalo

More important than local bragging rights is the position of Wmich in the conference; they're now half-a-game behind Cmich in the West, and the sides meet on 11 November (midnight). This year's breakout teams met, with Ohio beating Kents for ownership of the East division; no other sides are in contention.

State of Independents

LY   LW   TW          Conf   R      RD    Idle
=========================================================
20    7    8   NOTDM   XX   1360   110.0   0   Notre Dame
47   41   42   NAVY    XX   1078   110.6   0   Navy
90   99   108  ARMY    XX    713   114.6   0   Army
116  119  118  TEMPL   XX    551   131.5   0   Temple

Army isn't going to notch up the six wins it needs to take the promised land of the Poinsetta bowl; Navy will, and Notdm remains in contention for a top ten bowl.

Next week's NASN-UK schedule: Saturday 5pm, a BT game (to be confirmed, live); Sat 8.30, LSU -v- Tense, live; Sun 5pm, a PX game (to be confirmed); Tue 6pm, a game to be determined.

linkpage | NCAA |

A fair old selection of upsets this week-end:

es san-val 1:0 (44)
fr nic-mar 2:1 (41)
it par-atl 3:1 (40)
fr try-set 3:1 (40)
e1 whm-blk 2:1 (39)
es amd-zar 0:1 (35)
fr tou-scx 1:2 (34)
it acm-int 3:4 (32)
e1 mcy-min 1:0 (31)
e2 bir-wba 2:0 (30)
e2 ccr-sot 2:0 (30)
e2 ips-lut 5:0 (30)
de stt-snv 3:0 (30)

sc ran-mtw 1:1 (17)

Highlights of the FA Cup Eighth Round Draw (the Einhundredzwanzigachtfinalrund) include local derbies between Wycombe and Oxford, Shrewsbury and Hereford, Tamworth and Burton, Gillingham and Bromley, and Newport County and Swansea - it's the first time Newport's featured this late in the contest since liquidation in 1989. Leatherhead have a great chance of claiming a league scalp, for Torquay looks to be on the verge of dropping out. Yeading will travel to Notts Forest, the very capable Lewes host Darlington, while Exeter's reward for putting out former winners Wimbledon is a match against Stockport. Long trip of the round is for Fleetwood, who travel to fellow Division VII side Salisbury.

Lowlights of the FA Cup Eighth Round Draw were provided by drawmaster Trevor Brookin, who seemed not to know how to count to 80, misheard 3 as 53, and managed to confuse Illinham with Rimsby. Can we get someone less rubbish to do the next draw? I hear Des Lynam is available...

Primera Division

BAR   1226   89.5  -26
VAL   1193   92.2  -27
SEV   1188   93.9  -32
RMD   1180   92.0   40
GET   1124   96.1   54
AMD   1076   93.6   20
CVG   1062   91.8    7
DEP   1060   92.2    5
VIL   1053   94.8   52
MAL   1011   93.2   39
ZAR   1009   95.0  - 6
OSA   1008   92.0  -45
SAN    985   96.1   74
ESP    977   89.6   16
ABL    973   93.2    1
HEU    947  113.4    9
LEV    946  114.5   11
BET    895   93.2  -66
SOC    837   94.7  -99
TAR    819  121.2  -82

ALA (II)   970   115.5   4
CAD (II)   889   118.0   8
MGA (II)   873   120.1  45

Two defeats for most of the leading clubs - including Barcelona's at Chelsea - means the Spanish giants are losing their way a little at present. Getafe aren't playing in Europe, giving them every chance to concentrate on the league, something that would go down well in Sociedad.

Barca's return match against Chelsea to-night (ITV, 7.45) with Liverpool -v- Bordeaux on ITV4. UEFA Cup matches on Thursday include Parma -v- Newcastle (C5, 7.45), Rangers -v- Maccabi Haifa (BBC-1 Scotland, 7.45), Blackburn -v- Basel (Eurosport, 8pm), and Tottenham -v- Brugge (ITV4, 8pm). As ever, Wednesday's matches are not televised live, though highlights will be on Eurosport on Friday.

linkpage | Results |

CFL

sas-edm 18:20 (32)
mon-tor 24:20 (32)
win-bcl 16:26

So Montréal wins the East, and will take home advantage for the Divisional Finals in the second week of November; Toronto will host Winnipeg in next week's play-off. The West has been set for some time - BC wins, Calgary hosts Saskatchewan. The Grey Cup final is set for 19 November.

BCL  1137   90.8   0   W
CAL  1039   90.0   1   W
TOR  1032   91.5   0   E
MON   996   92.0   0   E
WIN   996   89.6   0   E
SAS   978   88.6   0   W
EDM   948   90.2   0   W
HAM   834   95.2   1   E

CFL South

<,p>The CFL is expanding overseas, with games to be played in Mexico, Germany, and the UK in the coming years. The league expects to schedule one overseas match next year, with two games per year thereafter; it's thought possible that an overseas match may yet be trialled during the current campaign. Further details will be confirmed before the Off-White Cup next January.

53    N.Y. Jets 13 vs. Cleveland 20
50    Pittsburgh 13 vs. Oakland 20
50    Dallas 35 vs. Carolina 14
49    Houston 22 vs. Tennessee 28
48    Baltimore 35 vs. New Orleans 22
48    Seattle 28 vs. Kansas City 35

    Arizona 14  vs. Green Bay 31
    Atlanta 29 vs. Cincinnati 27
    Jacksonville 13 vs. Philadelphia 6
    San Francisco 10 vs. Chicago 41
    Tampa Bay 3 vs. N.Y. Giants 17
    St. Louis 24 vs. San Diego 38
    Indianapolis 34 vs. Denver 31
    New England vs. Minnesota L:L

In non-upset news, the Pink Rhinosceri and Lucky Charms continue to roll on, the latter club inflicting the first defeat at the Denver Anthill since 2004. The Cautions lost, the Lost didn't, and league worst Miami December Collapse only avoids losing further ground by taking the bye. Good win for the Erinas over the Boy Scouts, but it's a particularly good win for Aston Villa against NJ/B.

NEM  1171   133.4   1   CE   New England New Democracy
BUF   893   126.7   1   CE   Buffalo Cover Your Eyes With Feathers
MIA   770   124.3   1   CE   Miami December Collapse
NJJ   977   118.6   0   CE   New Jersey B

BAL  1132   124.8   0   CN   Baltimore Erinas
CIN  1030   125.1   0   CN   Cincinnati Bungles
PIT   972   122.3   0   CN   Pittsburgh Terrorists
CLE   919   127.8   0   CN   Aston Villa

IND  1282   130.2   0   CS   Indianapolis Lucky Charms
JAC  1116   123.4   0   CS   Jacksonville Browns Lane
TEN   893   128.4   0   CS   Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks
HOU   865   124.0   0   CS   Houston Moocows

DEN  1140   128.5   0   CW   Denver Ants
SDF  1106   124.1   0   CW   San Diego Bolts
KAN  1044   122.8   0   CW   Kansas City Pie Scales
OAK   870   125.7   0   CW   Oakland Lost

NJG  1147   123.3   0   PE   New Jersey A
DAL  1029   122.2   0   PE   Irving Asteroids
PHI   993   118.0   0   PE   Philadelphia Marxists
WAS   869   126.3   1   PE   Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons

CHI  1280   131.5   0   PN   Chicago Pink Rhinosceri
MIN  1081   131.2   1   PN   Minnesota Lapponites
BOG   938   123.5   0   PN   Bay of Green
DET   812   127.1   1   PN   Detroit Peugeots

ATL  1119   122.2   0   PS   Atlanta Cattacciano
NOB  1113   126.1   0   PS   New Orleans Boy Scouts
CAR  1016   118.8   0   PS   Carolina Pussycats
BOT   930   129.1   0   PS   Manchester United

SEA  1064   122.8   0   PW   Seattle Blue Men Group
STL  1021   124.4   0   PW   St Louis Mouflons
SFF   888   127.8   0   PW   St Francisville Fortyfour-Niners
ARI   775   119.8   0   PW   Arizona Cautions

NCAA-ball fallout

How much use is FLINT? The Sports Economist crunches the numbers, and it's not pretty.

"If the system ever made sense, it would significantly decrease the pleasure of rooting for doomsday." So says the PB Sportsbog, making a very valid point about the decline and fall of SCALF. Anywhoo, here's the Vegas 10:

1. Ohio State (BCS 1, GB 2)
2. Michigan (2, 6)
3. Texas (7, 1)
4. LSU (17, 11)
5. Florida (4, 7)
6. Califnoria (10, 13)
7. West Virginia (3, 4)
8. Louisville (5, 10)
9. Southern Cal (8, 3)
10. Notre Dame (9, 8)

That top 25 in full.

Borda-count of the computer ranking of the top ten sides:

1. MICH (6)
2. OHIST (2)
3. CALIF (13)
4. FLORD (7)
5. NOTDM (8)
6. SCALF (3)
7. RUTGR (24)
8. AUBRN (5)
9. LSVLE (10)
10. TENSE (21)

linkpage | NCAA |

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