So, a World Cup Week-end, and let's start with the biggest upset possible.

Oceania, Group Final

Just as we expected, it's all to play for in the return leg on Wednesday. Remember, if the match finishes level, then away goals will count double, with extra time and penalty kicks possible. It says here.

Asia, Play-off Final

Winner will join Korea (S), Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Iran in the finals. Loser will play-off against a duff side from North America. Return leg, again, on Wednesday.

Africa

Group One is going down to October's final group matches - Senegal, Togo, and Zambia are all split by just two points, with Togo to play Liberia to-day. Senegal moved into pole position with a 1:0 win in Zambia yesterday.

Group Two sees South Africans suffer a surprise 3:1 reverse in Burkino Faso, remaining level on points with Ghana. The latter will qualify with a win against Uganda to-day, as they've beaten the South Africans twice.

Group Three is between the Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon, who meet in Abidjan to-day. A win will put the home side through.

Angola and Nigeria head Group Four, where all three matches take place to-day.

Group Five saw wins for Tunisia and Morocco, they'll meet in Tunis on October 8, when a draw will suffice for the home side.

Europe

A surprise in Group One, where Romania beat Czechia 2:0 to move into second place. However, the Romanians only have one game left, the Czechs and Dutch (1:0 winners in Armenia) have three to play, and are firm favourites to dispute the qualifying places.

Ukraine became the sixth side through to the finals; a 1:1 draw in Georgia was an unfortunate result given the quality of the play, but Turkey were held 2:2 by Denmark, ensuring that they cannot catch their neighbours. With Ukraine having defeated Greece on head-to-heads, they must finish top of the group. Albania kept up pressure for an unlikely second place, beating Kazakhstan 2:1.

Portugal consolidated their grip atop Group Three, with a 6:0 demolition of Luxembourg. Russia moved level on points with Slovakia, the sides will meet on 12 Oct. Estonia's victory over Latvia effectively ends the challenge from both countries.

It's still all to play for in Group Four. Israel are now favourites, after picking up a 1:1 draw in Switzerland. Though they're now in fourth place, a point behind the Swiss, Ireland, and France (3:0 over the Faroes), and with an extra game played, Israel finished home-and-away against those mighty Faroes, while the other three sides will play each other and Cyprus once.

Italy picked up a lucky point from a 1:1 in Scotland, allowing Norway (3:2 in Slovenia) to pick up the pace again. Moldova beat Belarus 2:0, their first win of the tournament.

As you were in Group Six, where Poland beat Austria 3:2, and England won 1:0 in Wales. The two sides will meet in Manchester on 12 Oct.

Serbia and Montenegro heads Group Seven, after defeating Lithuania 2:0. Former leaders Spain were idle, and will play S&M on Wednesday.

Easy wins for Croatia (3:1 in Iceland) and Sweden (3:0 over Bulgaria) leave Group Eight as it was. Hungary's challenge is still alive, after a 4:0 win over Malta.

North America

The big match saw the FARCE beat Mexico 2:0, ensuring that they'll go through. Mexico requires just one more point to progress. Costa Rica holds third place, a game ahead of both Trinidad and Tobago and Guatemala.

South America

Argentina were already going through, so lost 1:0 in Paraguay. Brazil will join the finals group if they beat Chile this evening, while Bolivia's defeat at the hands of Ecuador ensures they're the first side out of contention. As Ecuador would lose to Colombia on head-to-heads, the former side won't qualify should the latter lose to Uruguay tonight.

linkpage | Results |

One week into the regular season, and only 29 of the 117 competing teams are yet to start their season. Big losers this week were last year's runners-up Auburn (AUBRN), who lost to Georgia Tech (GEOTC). The top twelve:

SCALF	PX	1429	190.2	Southern California
TEXAS	BT	1295	190.1	Texas
UTAH	MW	1284	186.5	Utah
GRGIA	SE	1274	180	Georgia
VTECH	AC	1253	182.3	Virginia Tech
TENSE	SE	1250	184	Tennessee
LSVLE	CU	1244	190.5	Louisville
GEOTC	AC	1232	185.2	Georgia Tech
AUBRN	SE	1226	185.2	Auburn
FLAST	AC	1215	180	Florida State
ARZST	PX	1203	185.8	Arizona State
IOWA	BX	1188	200	Iowa

As promised, I'll be charting the progress of two of the twelve conferences each week. This time is the turn of the Atlantic Coast Conference (AC) and the Mountain-West Conference (MW). The Atlantic Coast is one of the automatic BCS conferences.

VTECH	AC	1253	182.3	Virginia Tech
GEOTC	AC	1232	185.2	Georgia Tech
FLAST	AC	1215	180	Florida State
CLEMS	AC	1154	180.5	Clemson
MARYL	AC	1116	180.1	Maryland
VIRGI	AC	1110	192.9	Virginia
NCARO	AC	1087	200	N Carolina
MIAFL	AC	1080	180	Miami-Florida
NCSTA	AC	990	182.3	NC State
WAKEF	AC	882	182.4	Wake Forest
DUKE	AC	844	180.3	Duke

The Mountain-West doesn't get an automatic BCS slot, but does contain the very handy Utah side.

UTAH	MW	1284	186.5	Utah
NEWMX	MW	1100	182.4	New Mexico
AIRFC	MW	1031	181.5	Air Force
BYU	MW	957	180.7	BYU
WYOMG	MW	955	179.9	Wyoming
COLST	MW	907	181.9	Colorado State
SDGST	MW	879	180.2	San Diego State
UNLV	MW	835	182.4	UNLV

Acronym time? BYU is Brigham-Young, out of Salt Lake City; UNLV is Nevada Las Vegas. Or Not Likely Victors, to be honest.

We'll be re-visiting these conferences on the 18th of October, if my maths holds out; by then, we should start to see some serious patterns emerge.

linkpage | NCAATables |

In Oceania, the result is Solomon Islands - Australia 1:2 (1:9). Close, but not close enough, Australia's slight advantage from the first leg sees them through.

Asia's play-off was due to have its second leg yesterday. That didn't happen, as FIFA has annulled the result of last Saturday's first leg. Apparently, the referee failed to apply a change in the law relating to encroachment at penalty kicks. The first leg will now be replayed next month, with the second leg following a few days later.

Europe 1 saw easy wins for Czechia and the Netherlands, and also for Finland. The Czechs bounce past the idle Romanians into second place.

A major upset in group 2, as Turkey won 1:0 in Ukraine. It won't take them through, but consolidates second place. With ten minutes to play, Greece were 1:0 down in Kazakhstan, but the home side had two men sent off, and the visitors scored twice to keep their play-off hopes alive. Denmark trounced Georgia 6:1, and will host Greece on 8 Oct - a home win, and a win in Kazakhstan could see the Danes take second.

Portugal - Russia ended in a 0:0 draw, which almost confirms Portugal's win in the group. With Slovakia also drawing, they remain ahead of Russia on head-to-head. At the foot, Liechtenstein beat Luxembourg 3:0 - it's Portugal next, and the Vaduz result was 2:2.

All change in group 4, as France win 1:0 in Ireland, the Swiss win 3:1 in Cyprus, and Israel beat the Faroes 2:0. Switzerland head France on head-to-head, and will go through if they beat the French on 8 Oct. Ireland need to beat the Faroes and Switzerland to qualify.

Italy took a great step forward in group 5, winning 4:1 in Belarus. Scotland kept their hopes alive, winning 2:1 in Oslo, but Slovenia's 2:1 win in Moldova won't help the Scots. It's Italy - Slovenia next.

Group Six has also taken a decisive twist, with Poland winning 1:0 against Wales, and England surprisingly losing 1:0 in Northern Ireland. England will host Poland on 12 Oct, but must beat Austria four days before to stand any chance of winning the group.

As you were in group 7, Spain drew 1:1 with Serbia, giving the visitors a two-point lead. Bosnia stay in contention after winning 1:0 in Lithuania; Belgium did their goal difference a power of good by thumping San Marino (EIGHT) 8:0. This could all come down to Serbia - Bosnia and Spain's visit to San Marino on the 12th.

In group 8, Sweden won in Hungary, Croatia were held to a draw by Malta. The Swedes go top, and will qualify directly if they win in Zagreb on 8 Oct.

We can almost put both sides through, the best two runners-up will also make the finals directly, and Croatia's 20 points should put them through. England currently hold the second place on 19 points, just one point ahead of Czechia. Group four can possibly provide a qualifier, groups 2 and 5 cannot, and it would be extremely surprising (though not quite impossible) to see one from 3 or 7.

In summary: Ukraine have qualified, and they're joined by Poland - 24 points is certain to put them through as a high-scoring runner-up. The following sides are assured a play-off or better: Netherlands, Portugal, England, Sweden, Croatia.

North America saw Mexico qualify, with a 5:0 thumping of Panama. The Mexicans also go to the top of the group, after the FARCE was held to a 0:0 draw in Guatemala. Costa Rica beat Trinidad 2:0, and are all but certain to take the last automatic qualification slot. Guatemala's draw puts them a point ahead of Trinidad.

linkpage | Results |

One of the more pointless side-projects from the Grand Glicko plan is to use the system to gain some advantage against the odds-makers. To that effect, I'll be selecting up to three matches in each week-end and mid-week programme, and investing notional money. This isn't real money, for the use of real money would corrupt the scientific nature of the experiment.

As a bit of a hedge, I'll stake one unit on a win, and half a unit on a draw. As the odds against a draw are usually 3.00 (4/1) or longer, this means I'll make a profit on either result. Obviously, regular bookies won't allow one to do this.

I'm not going to divulge the entire selection criteria, but they do include a limit on the combined RD of the competing sides; this explains the domestic bias of the early choices, European sides will come into contention later in the season. Here's the picks:

• Middlesbrough at home to Arsenal (5.00 the win, 3.30 the draw)
• Livingston at home to Hearts (5.00 / 3.60)
• Fulham at Newcastle (4.50 / 3.30)

All odds were available at a leading British bookmaker last night.

linkpage | Betting |

Division I saw a few upsets, none larger than Middlesbrough's 2:1 home win over Arsenal, worth 35 points. West Brom - Wigan 1:2 and Everton - Portsmouth 0:1 were both worth 31 points to the winners. Charlton's 1:0 win at Birmingham was worth 23 points. The media plays Fulham's 1:1 draw at Newcastle as a surprise, but it was worth just one Glicko point, and to the home side. Charlton go second after the Manchester derby ends 1:1 - City are third, United fourth, and Chelsea beat Sunderland to remain perfect at the top.

Division II had draws where there should have been wins - Leeds were held 3:3 by Brighton, Southampton 1:1 by QPR. 12 points exchanged in both games. Sheffield Utd remain top of the official table, beating Ipswich 2:0. Reading were held by Coventry, while Luton and Wolves drew 1:1. Norwich picked up their first win of the season.

Brentford and Scunthorpe had easy wins against lowly opposition, Huddersfield and Swansea - 7 (SEVEN):1 winners against Bristol C - remain just behind. Yeovil's second straight win lifts them off the bottom, replaced by Doncaster. It's early days, but Notts Forest are in a relegation position, but still ahead of Franchise.

Notts County, meanwhile, continue to set the pace in Division IV, keeping just ahead of Grimsby. Exeter continue to dominate Division V, York are three points behind, but Grays are still to suffer a defeat in this division. Aldershit beat Crawley in mid-week, but were thumped 5:2 by Morecambe to-day, while Crawley were beating Canvey. Histon and Sutton are beginning to run away with Division VI (S), Northwich in VI (N). Sides in Divisions VII entered the FA Cup in the First Qualifying Round (actually the third qualifying round, and four rounds away from the First Round.) Kingstonian and Runcorn were the most obvious casualties, though Telford and Wimbledon are both going to replays.

The big noise in Scotland: Rangers' 1:1 draw at Falkirk, putting them behind Celtic by more than 60 Glicko points. Ross head Division B, Gretna are (predictably) atop Division C, and Berwick are +5=0-0 in Division D.

On the continent: Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke 04 had a draw, Lyon defeated Monaco, and the Lisbon derby saw Benfica better Sporting.

The betting results:

• Newcastle - Fulham 1:1 (+0.65)
• Middlesbrough - Arsenal 2:1 (+4.50)
• Livingston - Hearts 1:4 (-1.50)

Scores so far: Staked 4.50; profit/loss 3.65. Hurrah!

Normally, I'd give some bets for the mid-week games in Division II and in the European competitions. However, I don't think that any of the games represents good enough value to actually place any money, so I shall keep my powder dry for the week-end.

linkpage | BettingResults |

If it's Tuesday, it's time to crunch the numbers in the NCAA rankings. No game for leading side Southern California this week, so a lot of sides make up some of the ground. Not much of the ground, because only Texas (25-22 winners over Ohiostate) played a side within one RD of them. The national top fifteen:

SCALF	PX	1429	190.2	Southern California*
TEXAS	BT	1345	173.9	Texas
GRGIA	SE	1306	169.1	Georgia
UTAH	MW	1304	178.7	Utah
GEOTC	AC	1279	170.9	Georgia Tech
VTECH	AC	1271	175.4	Virginia Tech
AUBRN	SE	1250	176.4	Auburn
TENSE	SE	1250	184	Tennessee*
LSVLE	BE	1244	190.5	Louisville*
LSU	SE	1228	180	LSU
CLEMS	AC	1216	165	Clemson
FLAST	AC	1215	180	Florida State*

Where an asterisk denotes no game this week-end. Big winners include LSU, climbing into tenth after beating Arizonastate; and Iowastate, who climb to 21st on 1166/173.9 after beating Iowa. Arizonastate are now 26th (1121/170.1), Iowa's down in 40th (1085/181).

This week's conferences are the "Big" East and the Pacific "Ten". The "Big" East contains just eight sides.

LSVLE	BE	1244	190.5	Louisville*
WVIRG	BE	1150	180.2	W Virginia*
CONNC	BE	1074	188.9	Connecticut
SYRAC	BE	987	170.5	Syracuse
CINCI	BE	971	168.8	Cincinnati
PITTS	BE	878	168.9	Pittsburgh
SFLOR	BE	853	180	S Florida*
RUTGR	BE	850	180.3	Rutgers*

This is one of the six BCS conferences, and contains three sides with a decent shout at overall honours. Western Virginia and Connecticut have won both their games, Louisville is also yet to taste defeat, though Rutgers, South Florida, and Western Virginia defeated non-ranked sides. The one match between conference sides saw the Western Virginiaites beat Syracuse.

Over in the Pacific "Ten", where there are actually ten sides, we find one of the highest-ranked conferences.

SCALF	PX	1429	190.2	Southern California*
ORGST	PX	1193	179.3	Oregon State
CALIF	PX	1191	189.8	California
ARZST	PX	1121	170.1	Arizona State
UCLA	PX	1113	167.3	UCLA
WASST	PX	1106	168.8	Washington State
STANF	PX	1069	179.2	Stanford
OREGN	PX	1059	180.5	Oregon
ARIZN	PX	929	186.5	Arizona*
WASNG	PX	769	174	Washington

Only the Arizona sides and Washington have lost to ranked opponents this year, one of Washington's losses coming against California. One old guy against a whole province? That's not fair! With the winners getting a BCS last-eight slot, and five other sides progressing to a post-season game, there's a lot of money sloshing around to buy in rubbish sides and run up the stats. Er.

In Division IAA action, Wagner beat Iona by 14:0. A great result for the composer against a cathedral.

Next week's highlights include Florida State -v- Boston College, Miami -v- Clemson, Tennessee -v- Florida, Western Virginia -v- Maryland, and Arkansas -v- USC. (Well, those are the matches NASN's viewer will be able to see.)

linkpage | NCAA |

In a comment elsewhere (and I'll tke this opportunity to recommend the in-blog comments, they don't vanish after two weeks) Chris asks if there's a measure of the unlikeliness of a result. Yes, there is. One metric that works for a mature league - where all the teams have broadly similar RDs - is simply to take the points gained from a win. The less likely a result, the more points it earns.

That only works where RDs are similar. Divergent (read: high) RDs will - by definition - point towards greater uncertainty in the initial values. Indeed, this is the begged question in the basic definition of changes in a Glicko rating - are the changes down to initial error, a change in performance, or some combination thereof? And in what proportion? These we do not know, and that much is by design. Therefore, it's necessary to include the RD in any upset calculation.

Another possible Upset-o-meter metic could be (Points from win)/((RDwin)(RDloss)/10000), which re-bases the points gained based on a standard RD of 100. So, Middlesborough's win over Arsenal is worth (he said from memory) 40.01, while Lierse's victory over Standard Liege (which netted Lierse 64 points on a previous rating of just 480) would be worth about 35. A certain win would tend towards 0, but because the reward for a win cannot be less than 0, the Upset-o-meter cannot go negative.

Note also that there's a second metric, based on the points lost by the other side. This may not be the same - for instance, at the start of the season, Luton gained far more points for beating Southampton than the south coast side lost. Taking the geometric mean of the Upset(W) and Upset(L) should ensure this isn't a major problem. Where the two sides both have RDs around 100 to begin with, this will converge towards the arithmetic mean.

Now, how does this work out in practice? Here are this week's main European results, with Upset-o-meter figures in brackets at the end. Figures are the upset ranking of the win, or for the home team in a drawn match.

European League, Group Phase, First Round

Group A
Rapid Vienna  - Bayern Munich 0:1 ( 7)
Club Brugge   - Juventus      1:2 ( 6)

Group B
Sparta Prague - Ajax          1:1 (+7)
Arsenal       - FC Thun       2:1 ( 5)

Group C
Udinese       - Panathinaikos 3:0 (31)
Werder Bremen - Barcelona     0:2 (11)

Group D Of Death
Villarreal    - Man Utd       0:0 (+8)
Benfica       - Lille         1:0 (36)

Group E Of Near-Death
AC Milan      - Fenerbahce    3:1 ( 8)
PSV Eindhoven - Schalke 04    1:0 (28)

Group F
Lyon          - Real Madrid   3:0 (24)
Olympiakos    - Rosenborg     1:3 (39)

Group G For England
Chelsea       - Anderlecht    1:0 ( 3)
Real Betis    - Liverpool     1:2 (34)

Group H
Rangers       - FC Porto      3:2 (36)
Artmedia      - Inter Milan   0:1 ( 5)

So six upsets in the opening week, perhaps the most significant being Rangers' win over Porto. A draw in Lisbon, and perhaps a point against Milan, will see Rangers progress to the last 16 of this contest. Unless they cock it up against Artmedia, which is highly possible. Benfica's win in Group D Of Death is going to be very helpful. Wins for Barcelona and Lyon - and the French champions were slight favourites over Real Madrid - mean that they're now firm favourites to progress from relatively weak groups.

UEFA Cup, Final Qualifying Round, First Leg

Capitals denote a side already in the Glicko system.

We said that Everton faced a tricky tie, but there was no excuse for the weak display last night. Auxerre's win has an upset-o-meter rating of 4.

We predicted Leverkusen's struggle against Sofia, but rather missed sitters for Red Star and Marseille.

Pretty much according to plan here - Hibs' draw has an upset rating of -4.

Steaua were expected to win this game, according to the Glicko rankings, on an upset rating of 18. If you get a chance to see the goals from the Rennes game, see them - there's one cracker in the mix.

Slightly less easy for Boro than we expected, but Anorthosis are still in the hunt.

Not much to say about these results..

Apologies to anyone who saw the Viking match, the word "dull" springs to mind. Teplice's draw is a +9 upset.

It all happens in the bottom group, where the south and the north meet, where Lens met their match from the under-rated Groclin side, and where Zenit and Athens fought out a fascinating draw (upset: +1).

A full programme of matches in Division II saw a set of upsets - Sheffield Wednesday got their first win at this level in some years, beating Leeds 1:0 (upset: 45). Millwall got their first win of the year at Wolves (41), and Luton's run is coming to an end at the hands of QPR (39). Swansea had a match postponed from the international week, and rose to the top of Division III.

So, this week's top six upsets: 1) Sheffield Wednesday 2) Millwall 3=) QPR and Rosenborg 5=) Rangers and Benfica.

Two matches grab my attention for betting purposes this week-end:

• Charlton -v- Chelsea (5.00 / 3.50); Chelsea are yet to taste defeat, but Sunderland ran them close, and Charlton are quietly becoming a decent side.
• Inverness Caledonian Thistle -v- Hearts (4.85 / 3.50); Hearts have come out of the gate running, Inverness a little more sluggishly, but this is too good value to pass up.

Other highlights this week-end: Liverpool - Man Utd; Bordeaux - Lyon; Bestiktas - Fenerbache; and Kidderminster - Forest Green.

linkpage | BettingEuropeanResults |

Upsets at a premium in the top flight this week-end, though that's mostly thanks to a plethora of draws. No score between Liverpool and the Manchester Buccaneers, a goal apiece in four other games, and Chelsea's win at Charlton wasn't an upset, merely a disappointment. West Ham won at Fulham, Bolton at Man City, Newcastle overcame the nominally-superior Blackburn, enough to lift them out of the drop zone and leave Blackburn walking on the trap-door.

Sheffield United remain four points clear at the top of Division II, both they and second-placed Reading picked up difficult wins against easy opposition. Norwich took a good jump out of the relegation zone, and beat local rivals Ipswich into the bargain. The leading positions:

SFU	875	83
SOT	875	83.8
LUT	839	106.6
WLV	829	83.5
CPL	817	86.3

Lower down, a crucial injury-time win for Huddersfield over Brentford; the Yorkshire side came from 2:1 down to win 3:2 thanks to an extended period of play. Huddersfield go second, behind Swansea on goal difference; Brentford are one of three sides on 17 points, two off the lead. Grimsby and Carlisle are making the running in Division IV, Exeter continue to march away with Division V, with York and Accrington Stanley the closest rivals. Aldersh*t remain bottom.

In Scotland, no upsets mean that Hearts remain undefeated at the top, though 1:0 at Inverness was perhaps closer than they'd have liked. Ross remains ahead of St Mirren in Division B, Gretna's march through Division C was only slightly stalled by a draw against Partick, and Berwick made it six wins atop Division D.

On the upset-o-meter:
1) Athletico Madrid - Barcelona 2:1 (43)
2) Celta Vigo - Santander 0:1 (36)
3) Cardiff - Palace 1:0 (34)
4) Espanyol - Real Madrid 1:0 (33)
5) Plymouth - Burnley 1:0 (32)
5) Osasuna - Seville 1:0 (32)
7) Preston - Stoke 0:1 (31)

The betting: Charlton - Chelsea 0:2 ... Inverness Caledonian Thistle - Hearts 0:1. So -3 on the week-end, and down to +0.65 overall. The mid-week matches see league cups in England, Scotland, and France; national cups in Norway, the Netherlands, and Turkey, and regular league programmes in France, Germany, Spain, and most other countries. Two tips:

Reading v Luton (3.55/3.30)

Much as we like Reading, we simply like the look of this one.

Livingston v Hearts (6.00/3.80)

Lightning can't strike twice ... can it?

linkpage | BettingResults |

Third week of matches in the NCAA contest, and things are beginning to take shape. Here's the top - ooh, let's have a Top Eighteen:

Team   Cnf   Pts    RD     WSP
SCALF   PX   1442   185.4   0   Southern California
TEXAS   BT   1357   169.6   0   Texas
GRGIA   SE   1319   164.5   0   Georgia
GEOTC   AC   1313   160.5   0   Georgia Tech
LSVLE   BE   1309   172.8   0   Louisville
VTECH   AC   1287   169.4   0   Virginia Tech
FLAST   AC   1281   164.5   0   Florida State
AUBRN   SE   1250   176.4   1   Auburn
FLORD   SE   1240   154     0   Florida
WISCO   BX   1240   160     0   Wisconsin
CALIF   PX   1236   174.2   0   California
LSU     SE   1228   180     1   LSU
WVIRG   BE   1203   165.2   0   W Virginia
COLRD   BT   1188   170.8   1   Colorado
UCLA    PX   1185   155.1   0   UCLA
NEWMX   MW   1184   158.8   0   New Mexico
UTAH    MW   1184   169.8   0   Utah
ARZST   PX   1183   156.6   0   Arizona State

(WSP - weeks since played a competitive game against a Ia side.)

Over on the main blog, we've worked out an Upset-o-meter, which computes the gain if both sides had a RD of 100. This week's top five upsets:

Tulsa 54 vs. North Texas 2 (32)
Michigan St. 44 vs. Notre Dame 41 (29)
Miami 36 vs. Clemson 30 (29)
East Carolina 34 vs. Wake Forest 44 (28)
Wyoming 29 vs. Air Force 28 (25)
Oklahoma 24 vs. UCLA 41 (25)
Tennessee 7 vs. Florida 16 (25)
Mississippi St. 21 vs. Tulane 14 (25)

OK, top eight upsets. Deal. One match failed our Quality Control check, as the distance between the sides makes the match a foregone conclusion. And it was.

Ball St. 3 vs. Auburn 63 X

This means that Auburn's ranking is 9 points lower, and their RD will remain higher for the rest of the season. Ultimately, if they're in contention for the national championship at the end of the season, they'll have less of a share on both counts. Justice is served.

Auburn becomes the first side to hang their heads in shame, but they won't be the last. Texas beat Rice last week-end; if the sides were to meet again next week, it would fail Quality Control. (And what's a huge province like that doing playing a handful of grains anyway?)

On to the conference-by-conference report, and this week features the "Big" "Twelve":

TEXAS   BT   1357   169.6   0   Texas
COLRD   BT   1188   170.8   1   Colorado
IWAST   BT   1166   173.9   1   Iowa State
TXSTC   BT   1160   200.0   2   Texas Tech
OKLST   BT   1129   185.7   0   Oklahoma State
OKLAH   BT   1109   162.6   0   Oklahoma
NBRSK   BT   1108   167.9   0   Nebraska
TEXAM   BT   1097   165.4   0   Texas A&M
KANSS   BT   1082   179.6   0   Kansas
BAYLR   BT   1075   167.9   0   Baylor
KNSST   BT   1054   181.4   1   Kansas State
MISRI   BT   1035   154.9   0   Missouri

A BCS conference, as you can tell by the way all twelve sides are ranking above the 1000 notional average. There hasn't been a single match played in the conference yet, which is a bit rub, and Texas Tech's two wins have come at the expense of Division Iaa opponents, which is very rub. Texas took a large leap in the rankings this week after their victory over Ohio State, worth 24 on the Upset-o-meter. A handkerchief could cover most of the other sides.

Things are a little more sedate in the Sun Belt:

NTEXS   SB   931   168.0   0   North Texas
LOMON   SB   844   173.6   0   Louisiana Monroe
TROY    SB   832   164.6   0   Troy
ARKST   SB   800   170.7   0   Arkansas State
LOLAF   SB   756   174.4   1   Louisiana Lafayette
MDTEN   SB   746   154.3   0   Middle Tennessee
FLINT   SB   713   173.9   0   Florida International
FLATL   SB   708   174.1   0   Florida Atlantic

A non-BCS conference, as you can tell by the way none of these sides would be favoured against a "Big Twelve" team. North Texas beat Mid Tennessee two weeks ago, but fell in this week's top upset to unfancied Tulsa. Mid-Ten are one of four sides yet to pick up a win - Monroe Louisiana, Florida Atlantic, and Florida International are also finding life rather pointless.

linkpage | NCAA |

The second round of the League Cup is - almost literally - a no-win contest for the top-flight clubs. They're seeded against sides from the lower divisions, so will lose tremendous numbers of points if they don't manage to beat their opposition within 90 minutes. If they do, the reward is only a handful of points, but also the chance to progress in the competition.

Losers of the week were Tottenham, who lost 1:0 to Grimsby in the cup, and suffered a record 54-point Upset-o-meter reversal against the Mariners' notional score. Thanks to their low RD, Spurs "only" lost 46 points on the real rankings. Other top-flight sides taken to extra time included Fulham, Portsmouth, and Sunderland (they won) and Man City (they didn't.) Southampton of Division II fell out to Mansfield, and Plymouth were taken out by Barnet. An upset was on the cards at Wycombe, when the home side went in 3:1 up against Aston Villa. The visitors started trying in the second half, and turned the match around 3:8 (EIGHT).

North of the border, the League Cup is at its Viertelfinal (last 16) stage, where the European sides enter. Extra time for Rangers against Clyde, and for Celtic against Falkirk, all count as upsets. There were good wins for Dunfermline, Falkirk, and Inverness. Livingston pulled off the surprise of the round, winning 1:0 at Hearts. Motherwell and Aberdeen defeated lower-league opposition ensuring that the Achtelfinals will be an all-Division A affair.

The Upset-o-meter's results:

1. Grimsby - Tottenham 1:0 (54)
2. Mansfield - Southampton 1:0 (53)
3. Livingston - Hearts 1:0 (44)
4. Kilmarnock - Dunfermline 3:4 (39)
5. Roma - Parma 4:1 (36)

We had an interest in the Livingston match, and that's worth +5.50. The other match - Luton - Reading 0:1 didn't go to plan. Ho hum. Still +4.65 on 10.50 staked this month. Three away underdogs this week-end:

• Middlesbrough - Sunderland (6.00 / 3.60)
• Tottenham - Fulham (5.30 / 3.60)
• Aberdeen - Livingston (6.80 / 4.00)

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Four weeks in, and it's fair to publish a full Top 25.

Rnk Team   Cnf  Rating   RD   Idle
===================================================
 1 SCALF   PX   1469   175.1   0   Southern California
 2 TEXAS   BT   1357   169.6   1   Texas
 3 VTECH   AC   1353   155.8   0   Virginia Tech
 4 GRGIA   SE   1335   158.9   0   Georgia
 5 FLAST   AC   1281   164.5   1   Florida State
 6 WISCO   BX   1281   149.2   0   Wisconsin
 7 CALIF   PX   1253   167.8   0   California
 7 GEOTC   AC   1253   149.1   0   Georgia Tech
 9 AUBRN   SE   1250   176.4   2   Auburn
10 FLORD   SE   1249   151.3   0   Florida
11 MIAFL   AC   1235   153.4   0   Miami-Florida
12 ARZST   PX   1231   146.0   0   Arizona State
13 LSU     SE   1228   180.0   2   LSU
14 WVIRG   BE   1223   158.4   0   W Virginia
15 UTAH    MW   1221   158.2   0   Utah
16 UTEP    WA   1213   156.5   0   UTEP
17 MICST   BX   1199   146.9   0   Michigan State
18 BOSCL   CU   1195   146.4   0   Boston College
19 MINNS   BX   1192   155.2   0   Minnesota
20 IWAST   BT   1186   167.2   0   Iowa State
20 VIRGI   AC   1186   167.5   0   Virginia
22 UCLA    PX   1185   155.1   1   UCLA
23 OHIST   BX   1184   149.3   0   Ohio State
24 LSVLE   BE   1182   167.4   0   Louisville
25 ALABM   SE   1175   157.1   0   Alabama

Texas had a valid reason for not playing this week, they were clamped by Rita. Georgia Tech drop down after their loss to Virginia Tech, the latter will now go on to play High Tech. Louisville was the only other side in this week's 25 to lose, they went down to S Florida (1004 pts, 59th place).

This week's conferences are the "Big" "Ten" and the "South" "Eastern". First, the "Big" "Ten"

Rnk Team   Cnf  Rating   RD   Idle
===================================================
6    WISCO   BX   1281   149.2   0   Wisconsin
17   MICST   BX   1199   146.9   0   Michigan State
19   MINNS   BX   1192   155.2   0   Minnesota
23   OHIST   BX   1184   149.3   0   Ohio State
26   PENST   BX   1168   146.8   0   Penn State
41   MICH    BX   1088   147.9   0   Michigan
44   PRDUE   BX   1084   156.6   0   Purdue
55   IOWA    BX   1024   165.0   0   Iowa
57   NWSTN   BX   1011   145.8   0   Northwestern
60   INDAN   BX    989   168.6   1   Indiana
68   ILLNS   BX    948   147.8   0   Illinois

As the more observant amongst you will have noticed, the "Big" "Ten" actually contains eleven teams. It's also a BCS conference, the champions will play for one of the big payouts. Wins for Micst, Minns, Penst, Wisco, and Ohist; Indan are yet to pay a conference game. It's interesting to note that none of the eleven sides has managed a losing record - four are +2-2, but none has more losses than wins.

Rnk Team   Cnf  Rating   RD   Idle
===================================================
4    GRGIA   SE   1335   158.9   0   Georgia
9    AUBRN   SE   1250   176.4   2   Auburn
10   FLORD   SE   1249   151.3   0   Florida
13   LSU     SE   1228   180.0   2   LSU
25   ALABM   SE   1175   157.1   0   Alabama
27   TENSE   SE   1164   167.8   1   Tennessee
42   VNDRB   SE   1085   155.0   1   Vanderbilt
63   SCARO   SE    984   152.5   0   S Carolina
73   MISIP   SE    932   152.6   0   Mississippi
75   MSPST   SE    923   166.0   0   Mississippi State
84   ARKNS   SE    877   164.7   0   Arkansas
107  KNTCY   SE    737   170.5   0   Kentucky

With five of the best sides in the country, it's no surprise to learn the SE is also a BCS conference. Flord, Grgia, Vndrb, and Alabm are +2-0 in their conference matches, Aubrn is +1-0. After four weeks, LSU has managed to play just one game against qualifying opposition, which is a bit pants. But not as pants as Kntcy and Arkns, both +1-3.

Upsets were few and far between this week, here's the list of all matches rating more than 20 on the Upset-o-meter:

1. Louisville 14 - South Florida 45 (42)
2. Marshall 13 - UCF 23 (36)
3. W Michigan 19 - Temple 16 (33)
4. Tulane 31 - SMU 10 (25)
5. Nevada 21 - Colorado St. 42 (25)
6. New Mexico 13 - UTEP 21 (24)
7. Purdue 35 - Minnesota 42 (23)
8. Georgia Tech 7 - Virginia Tech 51 (23)
9. Colorado 3 - Miami 23 (22)
10. N Illinois 42 - Akron 48 (22)
11. E Michigan 23 - Cent. Michigan 20 (21)

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First order of business: developments from the UEFA meeting. There will be some major changes to this summer's Intertoto Cup contest, changes that just about confirm the quality of matches in the final qualifying round. The current five-round competition, producing three winners, will be truncated rather. The new format sees just three rounds of competition, producing eleven (count 'em!) winners. These sides will drop in to the UEFA Cup at the Second Qualifying Round stage, providing quality opposition (either in terms of having won through three rounds, or in terms of being the likes of Marseille or Valencia) to a round that's usually a bit dull. For values of "a bit dull" that include "less interesting than watching wet paint dry."

What does this mean? There are eleven extra places required in the second qualifying round, but three extra berths in the next round. That's a net increase of five teams, so there will have to be some teams moving down from the second to first qualifiers. Off the top of my head, that'll be the teams from the likes of Switzerland, Ukraine, and Austria - decent enough sides, not likely to challenge in the spring, but liable to cause an upset in the early stages.

Cynics might say that this is intended to prevent such classics as Deportivo - Marseille this season, as they'll both be seeded in the UEFA Cup, and hence won't meet at this stage. Instead, we'll be encouraged to concentrate on the exploits of plucky qualifiers in the European League completely out of their depth, such as Artmedia, Bohemians, or Everton.

This change will also bring the latter stages of the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA rankings. Zalgiris from Lithuania made the fourth round this year, but didn't pick up a single ranking point for their nation, or for their club. By making the fourth round next season, the side would enter the UEFA rankings proper, and help other Lithuanian sides enter the competitions at a later stage in subsequent years. The press release on UEFA's site is silent about whether the earlier stages will count for ranking points.

What will this mean for English sides? We can reasonably expect an entry each season from now on - they'll have to face just one lowly side before qualifying for Europe proper, and then being two rounds away from the lucrative group stage. It's exactly the same deal as the fair-play representatives get, and no side has ever thought of turning down that back door into Europe.

English results

Chelsea remain top of all standings, but they had to come from behind to beat Aston Villa 2:1. Arsenal were held 0:0 by West Ham (-15), and Manchester's Buccaneers lost 2:1 at home to Blackburn. Charlton won 2:1 at West Brom, and Everton's spiral downwards continues with a 1:0 defeat at the hands of Wigan. Just to rub it in, Sunderland won their first Division I match of the year, 2:0 at Middlesbrough on Sunday, leaving Everton stone bottom of the league. From Villarreal to Grimsby in one year, eh.

The bottom seven positions in the division make for interesting reading.

AVL   934   90
WIG   919   91.2
EVE   907   90.8
FUL   887   87.9
WBA   885   89.5
SUN   860   90.6
POR   854   89

Sheffield United hold on to the lead in Division II, beating Derby 2:1. Wolves bested Stoke 3:1, while Reading tested their luck to beat Norwich 1:0. Early challenges from Luton and Southampton fell away following disappointing draws against Sheffield Wednesday (-15) and Plymouth (-17) respectively. Coventry and Ipswich picked up useful wins.

In Division III, we have co-leaders - Swansea, Southend, and Huddersfield. Swansea lost ground by drawing with Notts Forest, Huddersfield tied with Colchester, and Southend won 4:2 at Rotherham. Franchise are now adrift at the foot of the table, and the only side yet to win.

Grimsby are running ahead of everyone in Division IV, with closest challengers Carlisle losing, and Rochdale, Chester, and Notts Co all drawing. Wycombe move second with a 3:2 win at Mansfield.

As is traditional when top plays bottom, it's a win for the underdogs. Such was the case in Division V, as Burton came home from Exeter with a 2:1 win. The new leaders of the division are Grays, with Accrington Stanley moving into second.

Scottish and overseas matches

Surprises continue in Scotland's Division A, where Hearts are still to drop a point after eight games. This time, it's a 1:0 win over defending champions Rangers, to remain 5 clear of Celtic, and 8 ahead of Gers. Celtic were trailing Inverness for much of their match, but came back to win 2:1. Livingston picked up their second point of the season, at Aberdeen.

Ross were held to a 0:0 draw at Dundee, allowing St Mirren to hit the top. No surprises in Division C, where Gretna and Morton won again, nor in Division D, where Berwick and Stenhousemuir both picked up their inevitable wins.

The Upset-o-meter

• Manchester Buccaneers - Newcastle 1:2 (42)
• Middlesbrough - Sunderland 0:2 (38)
• Hearts - Rangers 1:0 (34)
• Coventry - Hull 0:2 (33)
• Dunfermline - Dundee Utd 2:1 (32)
• Newcastle - Manchester City 1:0 (31)
• Leeds - Ipswich 0:2 (31)

In the betting, we were on Sunderland there. The other results: Aberdeen - Livingston 0:0 (+1.00) and Tottenham - Fulham 1:0 (-1.50). Win, lose, and draw, it's a very profitable +5.00 on the week-end, and +9.65 from 15 over the month. Neat! No bets this mid-week, the value is again not there. European matches don't make for exploitable betting at this stage of the season, and there's no value in the Division II programme. There's also a full programme in Divisions III and IV.

And finally, Manchester City has launched a new promotional campaign, with the strapline "The real team of Manchester." Let battle commence!

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Shall we begin with the classified European Cup results?

So, some groups (A, F) are going to plan. Some are almost as expected, but who would have thought that both Arsenal and Artmedia would get away wins in the same round of matches. Liverpool and Chelsea have now scored just one goal in 270 minutes of European League play this year, with yet another high-scoring goal fest looming in December. Get your pillows in early.

Surprises in Division II: Burnley beat Ipswich 3:0, Luton overcame Preston by the same score, and Cardiff's 3:0 win over Stoke was an away match. Sheffield Utd beat Plymouth for their tenth win in eleven matches; they're clear at the top, with only Reading in touch. The pile-up in Division III continues, with co-leaders Swansea, Southend, and Huddersfield all winning. Franchise move off the bottom with a win against Scunthorpe, Swindon's loss at Doncaster leaves them bottom. Division IV's leaders Grimsby and Wycombe pull further away, Chester and Leyton Orient keep pace. Bury move out of the relegation zone, Torquay move in. In Division V, Grays are the unlikely leaders, three clear of Accrington and Morecambe, with another five sides within three points. Aldersh*t and Tamworth lost while other strugglers won.

Here's the statement from the Upset-o-meter:

Porto         - Artmedia      2:3 (40)
Fenerbache    - PSV Eindhoven 3:0 (38)
Burnley       - Ipswich       3:0 (33)
Luton         - Preston       3:0 (31)
Panathinaikos - Werder Bremen 2:1 (31)
Coventry      - Watford       3:1 (31)

The UEFA Cup, Final Qualifying Round, Second leg matches play on Thursday, with the group phase draw to follow on Tuesday next week.

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UEFA Cup, Final Qualifying Round, Second Leg

Capitals denote a side already in the Glicko system.

[1] Levski wins 1:0 on away goals.
[2] PAOK wins 2:1 on away goals.

At the risk of providing spoilers, it's a great week for Bulgaria, Auxerre feel their wrath. Hamburg keep up the proud tradition of Intertoto Cup winners progressing.

[1] Red Star Belgrade wins 1:0 on away goals.
[2] Marseille wins 5:3 on penalties after 0:0 in extra time.

Marseille are this year's lucky swines, the Intertoto winners should not have been taken to extra time, let alone penalties. Defending champions CSKA had an easy passage, and Bayer must have thought they had it easy. Nope.

Mainz, one of the fair-play sides, fall out.

[1] AZ Alkmaar wins 3:1 on away goals.

A good turnaround win for Alkmaar.

[1] 1:1 after extra time should send the game to penalties, but it seems that UEFA has quietly rescinded the rule that away goals don't count in extra time. Therefore, Halmstads progresses. Bit rubbish swizz, really.

Surprised to see Strasboug's margin of victory there.

MPT stage one of the greatest come-from-behind wins we've seen, and we've got to admire Besiktas's 4:1 away win last night. And mention Heerenveen's 5:0 dumping. Running up the score, unless you're Rome.

[1] Viking wins 1:0 on away goals.

The last Cypriot light goes out, the nation has had a good year. A group-stage side would have made it great. Viking are the last remaining fair-play team left.

Lens makes it 3/3 for Intertoto teams, and Bolton had to score twice in the last quarter hour to avoid a nasty upset.

As I'm putting all the group stage teams in the system, nineteen (count 'em!) teams enter the Glicko rankings at this point. Their initial rankings are computed on their UEFA co-efficients, which I reckon is as good a starting point as any. The nineteen teams and their initial rankings:

BRO   Brondby               796   dk
CSS   CSKA Sofia            763   bg
GRZ   Grasshoppers Zurich   790   ch
GUI   Guimares              760   pt
HAL   Halmstads             763   se
HAM   Hamburg               828   de
HER   Hertha Berlin         987   de
LEN   Lens                  866   fr
LIT   Liteks Lovech         756   bg
MPT   Maccabi Petah-Tikva   706   il
PAL   Palermo               800   it
PAO   PAOK Thessalonia      912   gr
REN   Rennes                772   fr
RSB   Red Star Belgrade     735   yu
SAM   Sampdoria             800   it
SLP   Slavia Prague         908   cz
STR   Strasbourg            779   fr
TRO   Tromso                702   no
VIK   Viking Stavanger      745   no

This means we now have nine top-flight Italian sides, and eleven top-flight French ones. Barring mass relegations of listed sides (always a possibility in Italy), I expect the entire top flights of both these nations will join the Glicko system next season. We have seven German sides (and Bundesliga 2. Aachen), which isn't quite a quorum.

Some of the sides are going to change their scores this week-end - Rennes, Hertha Berlin and Guimares are all in action against listed sides in their domestic leagues this week-end. Other matches of note include Lille - Monack, Juventus - Inter Milan, and Heerenveen - PSV. The betting is of a more parochial nature:

The draw for the group phase, and the October international-week tables, should be out next Tuesday.

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