Sun 03 Jun 2007
European Qualifiers result
Here are the classified results from yesterday's European Nations Cup qualifying matches:
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group A
14:00 R Kazakhstan 1 : 2 Armenia
18:00 R Azerbaijan 1 : 3 Poland
18:15 R Finland 0 : 2 Serbia
20:45 R Belgium 1 : 2 Portugal
Armenia's win lifts them to seventh, above Azerbaijan. Poland was always going to be top of the league, and we're beginning to suspect that they'll qualify with a couple of matches to spare. Serbia came away from Finland with the victory for the second time in three weeks, and briefly took a qualification place, but ceded that to Portugal because of the 1:1 draw in Belgrade last March.
After 7: PL+ 19 PT 14 RS 14 FI 11 BE 7 KZ 5 AM* 4 AZ 4
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group B
20:00 R Lithuania 1 : 0 Georgia
20:45 R Faroe Islandes 1 : 2 Italy
21:00 R France 2 : 0 Ukraine
Lithuania's win moves them into fifth, and ahead of Georgia. Italy's win briefly put them top of the group, but the French victory over Ukraine never looked in doubt. It also means France re-captures the Knockout World Championship - they previously held it after defeating Italy in September, but lost it to Scotland in October.
After 6: FR 15 IT 13 UA 12 SC 12 LT 7 GA+ 6 FO+ 6
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group C
20:00 R Bosnia Herzegovina 3 : 2 Turkey
20:05 R Norway 4 : 0 Malta
20:30 R Greece 2 : 0 Hungary
Bosnia's surprise victory means they remain in third place, but close the gap on the now-deposed leaders to three points. Greece's win lifts them to the top of the table.
After 6: GR 15 TR 13 BH 10 NO 10 HU 6 MT 4 MV 2
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group D
16:00 R Wales 0 : 0 Czech Republic
19:00 R Germany 6 : 0 San Marino
The draw was enough to lift Czechia to the top of the standings, but Germany regained pole position after their big win. That was their second victory over the minnows.
After 6: DE 16 CZ+ 14 IE+ 13 SK 9 WA 7 CY 4 SM 0
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group E
17:00 R Russia 4 : 0 Andorra
20:30 R Estonia 0 : 1 Croatia
The earlier kick-off let Russia take the lead for a few hours. Both are comfortably ahead of England.
After 5: HR 13 RU 13 EN 10 MK+ 7 EE* 0 AD 0
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group F
18:00 R Iceland 1 : 1 Liechtenstein
20:00 Ssp Denmark 3 : 3 Sweden
20:30 R Latvia 0 : 2 Spain
We're not sure who is more surprised at the result from Iceland; Liechtenstein now has a two-game unbeaten streak, following their defeat of Latvia in March, a result that leaves the Latvians at the foot of the table. Spain's win puts them one point adrift of Northern Ireland.
The Denmark-Sweden match was suspended at 3:3. The referee awarded a penalty to Sweden in the final minutes. A fan took exception to this move, invaded the pitch, and struck the referee. It's not immediately clear if the score will stand, Sweden will be awarded a victory by default, or Denmark will be thrown out of the contest.
After 6: NI 13 SE 13 ES 12 DK* 8 LI 4 IS 4 LV 3
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group G
20:00 R Belarus 0 : 2 Bulgaria
20:30 R Albania 2 : 0 Luxembourg
20:45 R Slovenia 1 : 2 Romania
Bulgaria's win put them in a qualifying position, only to be unseated after Romania's victory - the win put the Romanians at the top. Albania move up to 5th.
After 6: RO 14 NL 14 BG 12 BL 7 AB 6 SV 4 LU 0
More matches on Wednesday, though no UK television coverage.
linkpage | EuropeanResults
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Thu 07 Jun 2007
More European qualifiers
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group A
15:00 R Kazakhstan 1 : 1 Azerbaijan
17:30 R Armenia 1 : 0 Poland
19:15 R Finland 2 : 0 Belgium
Armenia spent two-and-a-half hours on the bottom of the group, but stuck a very large spoke into Poland's qualification plans. Finland's victory ensures that they go level on points with Portugal and Serbia, and the tie-breaks mean that Portugal are out of the qualification places, and Serbia are in.
After 8: PL+ 19 RS* 14 PT* 14 FI 14 BE 7 AM* 7 KZ 6 AZ 5
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group B
18:15 R Faroe Islandes 0 : 2 Scotland
20:45 R Lithuania 0 : 2 Italy
21:00 R France 1 : 0 Georgia
Scotland's victory gave them the group lead for two and a half hours, and proves they're really in the hunt for a place. Italy spent a whole quarter-hour ahead of the pack before France ensured it was as you were at the top. Big losers were Ukraine, who now have to win their game in hand.
After 7: FR 18 IT 16 SC 15 UA* 12 LT 7 GA 6 FO 0
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group C
19:00 R Norway 4 : 0 Hungary
20:15 R Bosnia Herzegovina 1 : 0 Malta
20:30 R Greece 2 : 1 Moldova
Such was the magnitude of Bosnia's win in Turkey on Saturday that Norway's run-of-the-mill victory put them in a qualification spot, and Turkey out. Bosnia eclipsed both on the tie-breaks. Greece is now five points clear of all-comers at the top, but the prospect of Turkey being thrown out by a country best-known for its contribution to Eurovision is enticing.
After 7: GR 18 BH 13 NO 13 TR* 13 HU 6 MT 4 MV 2
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group D
20:30 R Germany 2 : 1 Slovakia
The win should ensure Germany progresses, and eases the pressure on the Czechs and Irish - their meeting on 12 September could be crucial.
After 7: DE 19 CZ 14 IE 13 SK 9 WA 7 CY 4 SM 0
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group E
20:30 R Croatia 0 : 0 Russia
20:30 R Estonia 0 : 3 England
No goals in the match between the top two - and Russia has still to concede a goal in the entire tournament. England's victory ensures they remain in touch, but need to come out ahead of the home-and-away series with Russia. Estonia haven't scored in the entire contest, but if they can't beat Andorra at home, they may as well quit.
After 6: HR 14 RU 14 EN 13 MK 7 EE* 0 AD* 0
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group F
20:15 R Sweden 5 : 0 Iceland
20:30 R Latvia 0 : 2 Denmark
20:30 R Liechtenstein 0 : 2 Spain
It was fun while it lasted; wins for Sweden and Spain pushed Northern Ireland out of the qualifying places, but they have a game in hand, and should be able to beat Liechtenstein in August. Not that Latvia could...
After 7: SE 16 ES 15 NI* 13 DK 11 LI 4 IS 4 LV* 3. Assumes the Sweden:Denmark match stands at 3:3.
EURO-2008: Qualifying round - Group G
19:00 R Bulgaria 2 : 1 Belarus
20:00 R Romania 2 : 0 Slovenia
20:15 R Luxembourg 0 : 3 Albania
Bulgaria spent an hour looking down on the rest of the group before Romania edged them out, but the Dutch will spend the summer in a non-qualification place. Albania is best of the rest, but has a hard finish.
After 7: RO 17 BG 15 NL* 14 AB 9 BL 7 SV 4 LU 0
linkpage | EuropeanResults
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Tue 12 Jun 2007
Prognostication payoff
Back at the start of the season, we made some predictions. Here's how they turned out:
England - Div I Manchester Buccaneers, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool fighting for the top places. Yep. Bolton, Middlesbrough, and Everton will be in the run for European places, alongside Spurs and Newcastle. Boro never really challenged, and Newcastle fell off the pace, but neither really looked like going down. Mid-table meanderings for Blackburn, Charlton, Man City, and Wigan. Er; Charlton down, Wigan only surving on the last day, Blackburn into Europe.
None of the new teams will make quite as much of an impact as Wigan did last year. After winning Division II by a mile, Reading might be expected to survive most easily Declined an Intertoto place, which is more than Wigan could do. Watford and Sheffield Utd look destined to struggle both are (currently) relegated. Portsmouth have never looked particularly secure in their three years in the top flight so chose this season to launch an all-out assault on Europe, coming within two points of making it.
1 - Manchester B; 2 - Chelsea; CL - Arsenal, Liverpool; UEFA / Intertoto - Spurs, Bolton. Rel - Watford, Sheff U, Fulham. Apart from Fulham, all are correct.
Division II Birmingham were unlucky to go down last year, and - along with fellow relegatees West Brom - will be looking to return at the first opportunity. One automatic promotion, one play-off finalist. Leeds are facing a crucial season, failure to return after three years will make it very difficult to maintain their credibility. So difficult that the side has sunk to Division III.
Promoted - Birmingham, Leeds, West Brom; play-offs - Ipswich, Preston, Wolves. Relegated - Burnley, QPR, Coventry We missed Derby's late success, and Leeds' failure. Coventry and QPR survived, just with Southend and Luton falling.
Division III It's when, not if, Brentford will convert their success into promotion They finished bottom. Huddersfield and Notts Forest will also continue their success, with Millwall and Crewe Forest made the play-offs, mid-table for the others.
Promoted - Brentford, Notts F, Millwall; play-offs - Huddersfield, Carlisle, Bradford. Relegated - Rotherham, Cheltenham, Tranmere, Bristol C Cheltenham pulled away late doors to finish 17th, Tranmere 9th, Bristol C 2nd. Carlisle came 8th, Bradford also relegated.
Division IV It's possible that all four promotion sides this year could be the relegated sides last; Walsall, Swindon, Hartlepool, and Franchise all have their hopes. The first three were automatically promoted, and Franchise finished clear in fourth, but lost in the play-offs. Grimsby, Wycombe, Lincoln, and Peterborough will be looking to maintain their strong form Lincoln finished 5th, the others mid-table. This might be the year that Torquay's luck runs out Bottom. Stockport, Notts Co, Boston, and Barnet also look troubled. Boston went down, and have been relegated to Division VI (N). Barnet and County mid-table, Stockport missed the play-offs by one.
Promoted - Walsall, Swindon, Grimsby, Hartlepool; play-offs - Hereford, Wycombe, Peterborough. Relegated - Torquay, Stockport.
Division V Oxford and Rushden are the relegated sides, and perhaps only Halifax can provide strong competition to these pair. Dagenham won the league by a canter, Oxford second, Rushden and Halifax mid-table. Weymouth have money to burn, and might be the promted side to watch. They ran out of dough mid-season, and slid from 3rd to finish 11th.
Promoted - Oxford, Halifax; play-offs - Rushden, Grays, Aldershot. Grays came 19th, Aldershot 9th.
Scotland Celtic from Rangers at the top, Hearts pipping Hibs for third, with Aberdeen and Inverness rounding out the top six. Falkirk for the drop. St Johnstone will make the Division B running from Gretna. With the new one-up-and-playoffs, the lower leagues become a fog of tedium. Celtic beat Rangers, Aberdeen 3rd, with Kilmarnock in the top 6. Falkirk came 7th, but Gretna needed a late scramble to take promotion from St J.
Miscellany Wales will be won by Llansantffraid, as usual. Linfield were almost unbeatable in Northern Ireland last year, and we don't see evidence that that will change. Two easy and correct predictions there.
European competition Chelsea, Man B, Liverpool, and Arsenal will all be looking to make the last 16 of the European League. They won't all make it. Oh, but they did, and all but Arsenal made the last four. West Ham and Blackburn will both settle for the First Round Proper of the UEFA Cup, but even the group stage might be too far for either side. Spurs should make the last 16, Newcastle will be targetting the last eight. West Ham fell in the Final Qualifying Round, Blackburn did creep into the First Round Proper (the round after the groups), Spurs fell in the 16, Newcastle in the 8.
Celtic want to make the last 16 of the EL. Hearts should make it to the Sorting Hat Round, and both they and Rangers will want to play into December, and hopefully longer. Gretna will be optimistic of making the last qualifying round; making the group phase of the UEFA Cup would be a major achievement. Celtic did make the last 16 in the EC, Rangers the same stage in UEFA, but Hearts and Gretna fell early.
A few surprises in the Spanish league over the week-end, not least that they're still playing. Real Madrid was winning, and Barcelona losing, but equalisers in both games within 18 seconds ensured the matches ended tied, and Madrid leads on goal difference going into Sunday's final matches.
38 Athletico Madrid - CELTA VIGO 2:3
37 LEVANTE - Valencia 4:2
35 Getafe - TARAGON 0:1
Also, we learn that Channel 5 will be showing highlights of Italian football from next season. It's the first time that Serie A has been on UK terrestrial television since 2002. Setanta retains the rights to live coverage, but there are indications that they'll negotiate with C5 for some games.
linkpage | Results
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Sat 16 Jun 2007
Season to Season
At the beginning of next season (1 July), all sides currently listed will have their idle game count increased by 10, to reflect the effect of changes in side composition.
Thirteen new sides will enter the rankings:
England (promoted from Division III to II)
SCU Scunthorpe United
BRC Bristol City
BPL Blackpool
France (League 2 to 1)
MTZ Metz
CAE Caen
*Strasbourg already listed
Germany (2. Bundesliga to 1.)
KRR Karlsruher
HRS Hansa Rostock
DUI Duisburg
Italy (Serie B to A)
NAP Napoli
GEN Genoa
*Juventus already listed
Spain (Segunda Division to Primera)
VDD Valladolid
ALM Almeria
RMC Real Murcia
Scotland (Division B to A)
*Gretna already listed
European League automatic qualifiers
*Porto, *Sporting Lisbon, *PSV Eindhoven, *Olympiakos, *CSKA Moscow all already listed
As in previous years, all sides qualifying for the league stages of the European League and UEFA Cup will be listed upon completion of their qualifying round.
De-listing will take place during the October international break, after the UEFA Cup groups are known. It will only apply where there is a single representative of a country, it has an RD of 200, and it is not still in European action.
That Intertoto Cup Draw In Full*
Well, almost full; the Spanish representative will not be confirmed until the season ends to-morrow.
23-30 June 7-14 July 21-28 July
Gloria B MACC HAIFA
FK Grbalj (Spain)
-----------------------------------
Slavia S
St Julia Otelul G
NK Zagreb Trabzonspr
Vllaznia
-----------------------------------
Ethnikos
Mak Skopje ChernoMore SAMPDORIA
-----------------------------------
Birkirkara
NK Maribor HadjukKula Leiria
-----------------------------------
Tobol Kust
Zestafoni SLOVAN LIB Heraklion
-----------------------------------
Shak Salig Chernom'ts
Ararat Y LENS
-----------------------------------
FK Baku
Dacia Chis St Gallen HAMBURG
-----------------------------------
Differdnge RAPID WIEN
Slovan Brt
Zalargerzg
RubinKazan
-----------------------------------
Cliftnvlle Gent
Dinaburg
HonkaEspoo
TVMKTallin Aalborg
-----------------------------------
Valur Reyk
Cork City
Hammarby UTRECHT
KiKlaksvik
-----------------------------------
Vetra Vil
Llanelli Legia W BLACKBURN
On the grounds that they have by far the silliest name in the contest, we'll be rooting for Finland's Honka Espoo. It's worth noting that only the top match can affect our rankings - the draw in the middle section, and qualification of an unlisted side from Greece, has kept the listed sides apart.
The new season's fixtures are out for England and Scotland. In England, the top four flights all kick off on 11 August. Four mid-week programmes in Division I - 14-15 August, Boxing Day, New Year, and 29-30 January. There are no matches scheduled for Easter Monday, as it falls immediately before an international friendly mid-week. Last matches on 11 May.
Division II observes the international Saturdays - 8 September, 13 October, 17 November - and has twelve mid-week programmes: 18 September, 2 and 23 October, 6 and 27 November, 4 December (yes, five matches in 14 days), Boxing and New Year, 29 January, 12 February, 4 and 11 March. Again, no matches on Easter Monday, nor on the August bank holiday.
Divisions III and IV don't observe international dates, and play nine midweek programmes: 2 October, 6 November, 4 December, Boxing Day, New Year, 29 January, 12 February, 11 March, and 24 March - the absurdly early Easter Monday. Last week-end for Divisions II to IV is 4-5 May. Divisions V and VI will announce their fixtures on or around 25 June; we expect them to run from 11 August to 26 April, with about a dozen bank holiday or midweek programmes.
The company television the Football Conference from next season has introduced a Conference Shield. Three rounds will reduce the 48 clubs in Division VI N and S to 8, at which point the clubs in the National Division V will join for the remaining five rounds. This contest will run alongside the FA Trophy (open to these divisions and the two layers beneath) and the FA Cup. The finalists will play at least 53 games in all competitions, and it's entirely possible that a side will play 60 games across the season.
Scotland's Division A kicks off on 4 August, and observes international dates. The thirds complete on 27 October, 5 January, and 5 April; the midweek fixtures are on Boxing Day, New Year (2 January), and 27 February. There are no matches on Easter Monday. We expect the last five matches to play 19 April - 17 May. Division B runs 4 August to 26 April, observing international dates, and playing midweek games on Boxing Day, New Year, and 11 March. Divisions C and D also observe the autumn internationals; their only midweek programmes are over the festive period.
linkpage | Results
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Mon 18 Jun 2007
Spanish sunset
The Spanish League finally ended yesterday; wins for Real Madrid and Barcelona ensure they finish first and second. Sevilla and Valencia will be in the European League qualifiers, Getafe are joined in the UEFA Cup by Villarreal and Real Zaragoza, with Athletico Madrid taking the Intertoto place. There were a few upsets:
36 Espanyol - Deportivo 1:3
35 Celta - Getafe 2:1
34 Racing Santander - Betis 0:2
31 Sevilla - Villarreal 0:1
Which leaves the final Primera Division table looking like this:
RMD 1212 82.3 75
BAR 1183 80.5 -15
SEV 1161 75.3 6
VIL 1143 82.6 114
AMD 1102 82.2 52
VAL 1087 79.9 -30
ESP 1080 76.5 -2
SAN 1063 82.9 -40
ZAR 1047 81.7 -19
OSA 1046 75.9 -2
GET 1026 79.6 -30
HEU 1026 83.1 0
MAL 1012 82.7 43
DEP 996 80.2 -39
ABL 988 83 56
LEV 977 84.4 43
BET 964 81.4 -63
TAR 964 87.3 59
CVG 960 80.6 10
SOC 957 86.1 41
ALA (II) 933 132.4 0
CAD (II) 919 134 -5
MGA (II) 891 128.3 4
The rest of Europe
Austria
RAP 815 125.7 84
GRA 744 132.3 -44
AWI 719 124.9 -40
Belgium
AND 909 121.4 8
BRU 861 123.8 -15
WRG 799 119.8 0
LIE 782 120.9 13
BEV 513 151.5 -13
Bulgaria
LSF 897 116.7 -44
CSS 877 136.4 58
LIT 687 138.5 -2
Serbia
RSB 938 144.3 25
PBG 681 133.9 -21
Switzerland
BAS 1006 126.7 35
GRZ 765 125.8 -88
THU 653 142.3 69
Czechia
PRG 945 121.9 28
LIB 884 128.9 -35
BLV 821 128.6 122
SLP 815 131.2 -46
TEP 687 138.2 -80
Denmark
COP 989 128.3 -28
ODE 943 125.3 -8
BRO 854 142.5 52
Greece
OLY 992 124.9 -32
PAN 968 116.1 -48
AEK 883 113.8 -47
PAO 866 126.4 -59
ASS 802 137.7 74
PIO 772 134.0 145
AIG 535 136.8 40
Croatia
DZA 670 191.6 0
Israel
MHA 931 126.0 -57
HTA 831 133.3 0
MPT 826 153.1 92
Netherlands
AZA 1120 96.9 3
AJX 1104 100.1 -19
PSV 1075 109.0 -16
HEE 931 119.4 69
FEY 923 120.9 -44
UTR 835 137.8 30
Norway
ROS 906 137.5 -66
VRG 844 154.1 88
VIK 804 152.7 49
TRO 637 146.1 -44
Poland
WIS 832 174.4 0
Portugal
PTO 1058 119.2 0
SLS 1043 123.5 -2
BEN 1022 107.8 2
BRG 932 122.4 0
GUI 755 188.2 0
Romania
DIB 1029 138.6 0
RBU 1028 155.8 0
STE 879 128.3 0
Russia
LOK 1050 124.9 110
CSK 1023 113.9 14
SPM 914 104.6 -70
ZSP 912 121.9 31
Sweden
HAL 652 200.0 0
Slovakia
ART 736 162.3 0
Turkey
FEN 1071 109.9 60
BES 1024 118.3 -42
GAL 908 130.9 -31
GEN 743 141.8 0
Ukraine
KYV 1064 121.0 67
SHA 974 112.4 -73
DNI 899 146.2 43
We'll be back later in the week for Europe's First XI.
linkpage | EuropeanTables
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Thu 21 Jun 2007
Europe's First XXII
The top twenty-two teams by rating.
01 +1 INT 1226 82.3
02 -1 CHE 1220 77.3
03 +6 RMD 1212 82.3
04 -1 MUN 1189 75.9
05 +1 BAR 1183 80.5
06 +2 STT 1174 84.2
07 nc SEV 1161 75.3
08 re VIL 1143 82.6
09 +4 AZA 1120 96.9
10 +7 FIO 1117 85.1
11 -1 ROM 1110 76.7
12 -1 ACM 1109 76.1
13 -8 LIV 1104 78.2
14 +2 LYN 1104 80.7
15 -1 AJX 1104 100.1
16 re AMD 1102 82.2
17 -5 SNV 1100 85.1
18 -14WER 1097 78.1
19 re TOT 1090 74.6
20 -2 VAL 1087 79.9
21 -1 ESP 1080 76.5
22 re ANL 1079 75.3
Inter and Chelsea have been there or thereabouts all season, while Real Madrid was as low as 12th in early March - a run of late wins brought them reward, just as Werder's stumbling end to the season saw them slump down the list. Lazio, PSV, Zaragoza, and Santander drop out - PSV hasn't played since the last ranking in late April.
The top twenty-two teams by a Monte-Carlo simulation, taking both rating and RD into account.
01 CSKA Kensington
02 Real Madrid
03 Inter Milan
04 Barcelona
05 Manchester Buccaneers
06 Stuttgart
07 Ajax
08 Villarreal
09 AZ Alkmaar
10 Sevilla
11 PSV Eindhoven
12 Fiorentina
13 Schalke 04
14 Liverpool
15 Athletico Madrid
16 AC Milan
17 Lyon
18 Tottenham Hotspur
19 Roma
20 Werder Bremen
21 Valencia
22 Espanyol
Football coverage has now ended for the season. It will be back with the first Intertoto Cup results of the new season. That's next week-end.
linkpage | EuropeanTables
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Sun 24 Jun 2007
A Testing time
Working out a formula to bring Test matches within the scope of Glickoblog-cricket is difficult. First, we've got to work out how much more important a Test success is against a one-day win. Our naive estimate is that it's roughly, but not quite, twice as important. We propose to make it 1.8 times as rewarding.
The basic concept is similar to the existing one-day formula: a tied match splits 9:9, an innings victory scoops all 18 points.
Victory by wickets
Where victories are taken by the side batting last, they're given by the number of wickets remaining. Award points as follows:
Win by 10 wickets - 17 points
9 or 8 wickets - 16 points
7w - 15p
6w - 14p
5w - 13p
4w or 3w - 12p
2w or 1w - 11p
Victory by runs
Where victories are made by the side bowling last, the margin is runs. Calculate the margin of victory as a percentage of the total score of the losing side, as follows:
>50% - 17p
35-50% - 16p
20-35% - 15p
15-20% - 14p
10-15% - 13p
5-10% - 12p
<=5% - 11p
In the rare event that the side batting last scores fewer runs in their two innings than the other side made in their first innings, treat as an Innings Victory. For instance, India 295 and 150; Bangladesh 100 and 100 is officially a win for India by 245 runs; we treat it as an innings.
Draws
So far, so simple. Drawn matches present a problem - how do we come up with a simple method of adjudicating draws? We need to scale up the incomplete innings to completion, factor in any unstarted innings, and then adjudicate upon the result.
Now, we're not aware of any research that says on average, when a side loses its second wicket, it will go on to increase its score by %%so much%%. In the absence of such research, we reach for the Duckworth-Lewis tables, read across the very top line - resource remaining with all overs left - double it, and add on the runs scored already:
Wickets lost - scale factor
0 - 300%
1 - 286.8%
2 - 270.2%
3 - 249.8%
4 - 225.5%
5 - 198.0%
6 - 169.8%
7 - 144.0%
8 - 123.8%
9 - 109.4%
So, for instance, if the match ends with the final side on 100/6, we estimate that they will have increase their score to 169.8% of the current total, and finish on 170 all out.
That's fine for matches where the fourth innings begins; where it doesn't, we assume that the side batting last will have done so at the same rate-per-over as they did in their first innings, and will bat for the same number of overs as the presumptive duration of the third innings. For instance: Aus 400 and 100/6 (35 overs); NZ 300 (100 overs). We scale up the Australian second innings to 170, and award the New Zealand side (runs/overs)*opp_overs*scale = (300/100)*35*1.698 = 178.
(Sidebar) It has been observed that test match wickets are lost at the approximate rate of one every 15 overs, and that the run-rate per over decreases approximately linearly with the number of wickets lost. In a study of one-day cricket, and ignoring the term relating to balls remaining, Carter and Guthrie implicitly propose a run-per-ball rate of 0.85-0.1028w where w wickets have fallen. If implemented, and assuming that wickets are lost exactly every 90 balls, this gives flat rates as follows:
Wickets lost - Additional runs
0 - 355
1 - 279
2 - 212
3 - 154
4 - 105
5 - 65
6 - 35
7 - 14
8 - 3
9 - 0
This does not appear to tally with the evidence, particularly with three or four wickets lost. It is entirely possible that a better model can be produced.
Back with the main thread, where we have estimated total scores for the sides. Now work out the margin of victory (in runs), divided into the winner's score - we use the winner, rather than the loser, because we're less certain about the result than before, and want to introduce a larger margin of error. Award points as follows:
Margin - points
<=5% - 9
5-15% - 10
15-25% - 11
25-40% - 12
40-75% - 13
>75% - 14
Where the second innings is incomplete, but has lasted at least 50 overs, scale that up and adjudicate on a single-innings match, for a maximum of 13 points. Where the second innings is incomplete and has not lasted 50 overs, declare a No Result, and award no points.
A side securing a draw is guaranteed 4 points; generally, the leader will receive a couple of points fewer than they would have done if the match had concluded.
Some recent worked examples:
Bangladesh -v- India, 18-22 May: IND 387 and 100/6d, BAN 238 and 104/2. Match drawn.
Computed totals: IND 487, BAN 238+104*2.702 = 238+281 = 519.
Margin of victory: (519-487) = 32 runs, 6.2% of BAN score.
Result: Bangladesh 10, India 8
In this Test, just over two days were lost to rain and bad light. Bangladesh had been set a total of 250 to win in 20 overs, and clearly held the upper hand in the chase. Would they have reached it? It's difficult to say; we reckon they would have more likely won than not.
Bangladesh -v- India, 25-27 May: IND 610, BAN 118 and 253.
Margin of victory: Innings.
Result: India 18, Bangladesh 0.
Series result: India 26, Bangladesh 10.
For the purposes of Glickoblog expected results (0 a comprehensive ODI loss, 1 a comprehensive ODI win), work out the ratio of points per game, then work out the signed difference between the side's result and expectation, and multiply by 1.8. India's result in this series was 26/36 = 0.72; its expectation was 0.61, so the side is credited with a win by 0.22; this translates to 23 points. Bangladesh is punished for its poor performance in the second test, and loses 15 points.
England -v- West Indies, 17-21 May: ENG 553/5d and 284/8d; WI 437 and 89/0.
Computed totals: ENG 837, WI 437+89*3 = 437+267 = 704.
Margin of victory: (837-704) = 133 runs, 15.8% of ENG score.
Result: England 11, West Indies 7.
Slightly more than a day was lost to rain in this match, mostly on the final day; England had set the West Indies a near-impossible 401 to win.
25-28 May: ENG 570/7d; WI 146 and 141.
Margin of victory: Innings.
Result: England 18, West Indies 0.
7-11 June: ENG 370 and 313; WI 229 and 394.
Margin of victory: 60 runs, 9.6% of loser's score.
Result: England 12, West Indies 6.
15-19 June: WI 287 and 222; ENG 400 and 111/3.
Margin of victory: 7 wickets.
Result: England 15, West Indies 3.
Series result: England 56, West Indies 16.
The expected score was England 43, West Indies 29, so England advances by a good margin.
Adding in these two series results gives:
AUS 1285 119.7
BAN 845 117.4
ENG 977 129.3
IND 966 145.4
NZ 1057 121.5
PAK 996 172.2
SA 989 123.9
SL 1121 115.2
WI 875 124.1
For 20/20 matches, we propose awarding 2 points to the winner, 0 to the loser, 1 each for a tie, regardless of the margin; each match will (effectively) count as slightly less than half a full ODI.
Coming up before the end of August:
25 Jun - 15 Jul – Sri Lanka v Bangladesh (3 tests) Expected result: SL 39, Ban 9 - three crushing victories
26 Jun - 1 Jul – India v South Africa (3 ODI) Expected result: Ind 8½, SA 9½ - a slight edge to SA
28-29 Jun – England v West Indies (2 20-20) Expected result: Eng 2.5, WI 1.5.
1-7 Jul – England v West Indies (3 ODI) Expected result, approximate figure: Eng 12, WI 6 - almost exactly a 2-1 series win.
19 Jul - 13 Aug – England v India (3 Tests)
20-24 Jul – Sri Lanka v Bangladesh (3 ODI)
21 Aug - 8 Sep – England v India (7 ODI)
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Mon 25 Jun 2007
It's the new football season!
Welcome to another new season - the fifth we've been running the Glicko rankings. During the close season, Scarborough FC has been formally wound up. The side won the FA Trophy in 1973, 1976, and 1977, and became the first to gain automatic promotion from the Football Conference to Division IV. The side twice made the play-offs, and will perhaps be best remembered for two matches in the League Cup - defeating Chelsea in the second round in 1989, and playing Arsenal in the fourth round in 1993, a match played in fog so thick that the Radio Five commentary team was unable to see much of the action. Scarborough was relegated after Jimmy Glass secured Carlisle's impossible escape at the end of the season in 1999, and was relegated in both the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Division VII (N) will run one club short.
Boston United may be disqualified from the FA Cup and Trophy next season. The club - relegated from Division IV to Division VI (N) owing to financial difficulties - must provide evidence to the FA that it can pay its football creditors.
There have been mutterings about a Celtic League, providing competitive matches amongst Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the Republic of Ireland. The contest will take just two international dates - semi-finals in August 2009, and a final (and unfinal) the following February.
UEFA has confirmed some more sensible groups for the 2010 World Cup. The 53 competing countries will be divided into nine groups of six, with one of the groups running a team light. The nine group winners will go through, and a play-off involving the eight best runners-up (discounting results against the sixth-placed side) will fill the remaining four places.
Intertoto Cup, First Round, First Leg
Gloria B 2 MACC HAIFA
FK Grbalj 1 A MADRID
-----------------------------------
Slavia S 3
St Julia 2 Otelul G
NK Zagreb 2 Trabzonspr
Vllaznia 1
-----------------------------------
Ethnikos 1
Mak Skopje 0 ChernoMore SAMPDORIA
-----------------------------------
Birkirkara 0
NK Maribor 3 HadjukKula Leiria
-----------------------------------
Tobol Kust 3
Zestafoni 0 SLOVAN LIB Heraklion
-----------------------------------
Shak Salig 4 Chernom'ts
Ararat Y 1 LENS
-----------------------------------
FK Baku 1
Dacia Chis 1 St Gallen HAMBURG
-----------------------------------
Differdnge 0 RAPID WIEN
Slovan Brt 2
Zalargerzg
RubinKazan
-----------------------------------
Cliftnvlle 1 Gent
Dinaburg 1
HonkaEspoo 0
TVMKTallin 0 Aalborg
-----------------------------------
Valur Reyk 0
Cork City 2
Hammarby 1 UTRECHT
KiKlaksvik 0
-----------------------------------
Vetra Vil 3
Llanelli 1 Legia W BLACKBURN
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Wed 27 Jun 2007
Cric in the neck
A regular correspondent asks,
do you think there is validity in the miscibility of Test, ODI and XX20 results, even with appropriate weighting? Other ratings sytems maintain separate orderings for (at least two of) the different forms, and there is some degree of difference between the two.
The validity in the mixing of these systems is precisely the point of the experiment. It will take at least five years to complete, as we really need a complete round-robin rather than the mish-mash of loosely connected points we'll have by next February.
The point about maintaining separate lists has validity, and is reasonably easy to implement. Which brings us to:
Overall rankings
AUS 1285 119.7
SL 1121 115.2
NZ 1057 121.5
PAK 996 172.2
SA 989 123.9
ENG 977 129.3
IND 966 145.4
WI 875 124.1
BAN 845 117.4
Test matches
ENG 1045 180.9
IND 1029 180.9
AUS 1000 200
NZ 1000 200
PAK 1000 200
SA 1000 200
SL 1000 200
BAN 971 180.9
WI 955 180.9
One-day internationals
AUS 1285 119.7
SL 1121 115.2
NZ 1057 121.5
PAK 996 172.2
SA 989 123.9
IND 943 157.2
ENG 939 128.2
WI 910 121.4
BAN 860 122.9
Twenty-20 internationals
AUS 1000 200
BAN 1000 200
ENG 1000 200
IND 1000 200
NZ 1000 200
PAK 1000 200
SA 1000 200
SL 1000 200
WI 1000 200
Do we scent an England supporter wanting their team to be top of the rankings, at least for a few months?
Not convinced that treating second-innings scores of, e.g., 209 all out and 209/2 declared in the same way is correct. I suppose that the two are identical in terms of the objective of winning that one particular cricket match and teams who are planning to declare can really start to slog and not worry about how many wickets they lose, but it still seems like a poor reward for batting wicket economy.
The aim of a third-innings declaration is surely to force a positive result; a captain shouldn't declare when there is a reasonable chance his side might lose, and should leave his bowlers long enough to bowl the other side out. Checking back through Tests played since summer 2005, I've not been able to find any drawn test following a third-innings declaration that wouldn't score at least 8 points on this metric. I'll stick with this rule for the moment, but will keep an eye on it.
There is work to be done, particularly where the fourth innings is short - for instance, a side makes it to 7/0 on the fourth day, but the fifth is a wash-out - current rules credit them with just 21 runs. I need to work out a further rule assuming that the side batting fourth would be batting for a reasonable length - perhaps half the average innings length so far, multiplied by the run-rate from first and second innings combined, multiplied by the wicket-loss factor from the original Duckworth-Lewis tables.
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