Tue 01 Apr 2008
PSG go forward, and may go down
Congratulations to Paris St. Germain, winners of the French League Cup after beating Lens 2:1 in Sunday's final. The side now joins such luminaries as Tottenham, Carquefou, Spartak Moscow, Inter Riga, Llansantffreid, Werder Bremen, and Westbromwich Albion in the UEFA Cup next season. (Some listed sides may not appear.)
We also note the victory of Franchise FC over Rimsby in the Football League Trophy. The side won the match at Wembley Building Site by two blocked toilets and a roof stanchion to some falling masonry.
Upsets
42 Werder Bremen - Duisburg 1:2
41 AEK - Olympiakos 4:0
40 Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United 1:4
40 Betis - Barcelona 3:2
37 Birmingham City - Manchester City 3:1
36 AC Milan - Atalanta 1:2
34 Coventry City - Plymouth Argyle 3:1
33 Getafe - Osasuna 0:2
32 Udinese - Fiorentina 3:1
32 Sunderland - West Ham United 2:1
32 Hearts - Dundee Utd 1:0
32 Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt 0:2
31 Motherwell - Hibs 1:0
18 Hamburger SV - Bielefeld 1:1
18 Cagliari - Roma 1:1
17 Nurnberg - Bayern Munchen 1:1
Werder may have left it just a little too late to renew hostilities with Alamenia Aachen, but the side is certainly playing like the Intertoto Cup would represent an achievement. Surprises in Greece, as AEK records its first win over decent opposition in a long time, and in England, as Newcastle has only its second win in two months. Three of the sides in European League action to-night suffered surprises - Barcelona lost, Roma and Schalke 04 drew, and only the Buccaneers conspired to win. No shocks in Scotland - Rangers won to become champions-elect, and Gretna's loss ensures that the side changes division before the clocks go forward, as it did in '05 and '06.
League 1
LYN 1152 78.5 71 0.90
BDX 1071 77.9 -19 -0.24
MAR 1012 74.8 -52 -0.70
NCY 1011 81.3 28 0.34
PSG 982 78.5 -4 -0.05
SCX 980 80.3 71 0.88
AUX 979 78.8 -17 -0.22
LEM 979 79.4 -19 -0.24
LIL 974 80.8 7 0.09
NIC 970 81.8 -57 -0.70
REN 968 79.5 86 1.08
LEN 961 79.0 -63 -0.80
LOR 959 78.7 -44 -0.56
VCN 934 80.7 10 0.12
CAE 925 82.3 -34 -0.41
TOU 903 80.3 20 0.25
MON 894 80.7 -62 -0.77
SET 877 82.3 -53 -0.64
MTZ 876 82.6 16 0.19
STR 874 84.0 -42 -0.50
NTS (II) 987 117.7 67 0.57
SED (II) 901 115.1 - 7 -0.06
TRY (II) 861 125.7 -36 -0.29
This month - since 19 February - could be re-titled How Lyon Got Its Groove Back. A victory over Bordeaux, and four wins over lesser opposition, means the side is champions-elect once more. And, as last season, there's an almighty ruck for the runner-up places, and to avoid relegation, with sides packed in tighter than sardines in a can. Though Metz have had a good month here, they're miles adrift in the league, with PSG and Toulouse occupying the other trapdoors. Nantes and Le Havre are looking certainties to make the top flight next season; Troyes may yet join them.
Division A
RAN 1058 78.9 20 0.25
CEL 949 80.9 -46 -0.57
ABD 843 76.4 5 0.07
DDU 809 79.6 10 0.13
HBS 798 79.5 17 0.21
HRT 777 80.5 53 0.66
FAL 775 80.6 - 6 -0.07
MTW 774 80.4 -18 -0.22
STM 714 79.0 -23 -0.29
KLM 684 83.3 42 0.50
ICT 656 81.4 -102 -1.25
GRE 562 91.5 - 5 -0.05
LVG (II) 605 131.7 -3 -0.02
DNF (II) 586 126.6 2 0.02
Well, it does look as though the last Edinburgh derby will take place, and that it will take place in the top half of the division, something that looked most unlikely in January. The main topic this month has been Inverness's plummet away from top-six contention towards tenth place. Hamilton Academicals and Dundee are the sides most likely to take the vacant place in the top flight next season. We will decide what to do with Gretna as and when the Scottish League decides on the matter; the precedent of Grazer AK is to keep the side on the listings for a season, but this will not be possible if they drop out of the League 42.
linkpage | ResultsTables
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Fri 04 Apr 2008
Quarter-finals begin
We'll begin with the European League Quarter-Final, First Leg.
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1
Inter M 0:0
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b]
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2 [35]
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1
Barcelona 3:1
--------------------------
Roma 2:2
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
So the 200th meeting of Arsenal and Liverpool ends with a small advantage to the Stadiennes. CSKA have their work cut out to reach the semi-final, squandering a good first hour. Schalke really should have scored against Barca, with all the posession they had, while the Buccaneers may as well book their tickets for the semi already.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4 [33]
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
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Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
A very strange pair of results from CONCACAF world cup qualifying. The British Virgin Islands do not have a stadium of high enough quality to stage any sort of qualifying match, so agreed to shift their home game to Nassau.
26 Mar Nassau BAHAMAS; Bahamas - British Virgin Islands 1:1
30 Mar Nassau BAHAMAS; British Virgin Islands - Bahamas 2:2
3:3 after two legs, Bahamas win 2:1 on away goals, even though both legs were played in the Bahamas. The winners will go on to lose heavily against Jamaica.
Highlights of the week-end's programme include Gencebirligi against Galatasaray, Helsingborgs versus Halmstads, Rennes -v- Bordeaux, Marseille -v- Lyon (SET2, 7.55 Sunday), Borussia Dortmund -v- Bayer Leverkusen, and the 201st meeting between Arsenal and Liverpool.
Also, Metz will be relegated from League 1 unless they're very lucky. Porto will be confirmed as Portugese league champions if they win, or both Benfica and Guimares don't. Leiria will be relegated unless they're very lucky. PSV will wrap up the Dutch league and avoid the play-off nonsense if they win and Ajax lose. Helpful results can also clinch Beitar Jerusalem the championship in Israel. Congratulations to Llanelli, champions in Wales; Dudelange, champions in Luxembourg; to Vaduz, winners of the cup in Liechtenstein; and to Aldershot, winners of the Conference Shield, a made-for-television tournament that (unlike UEFA's) is actually televised.
linkpage | EuropeanResults
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Tue 08 Apr 2008
Not happening: Cardiff -v- Hoffenheim
Portsmouth has booked a place in Europe; the side beat Westbromwich 1:0 in a boring semi-final held at a boring building site. Their opponents in the FA Cup Final will be Cardiff, 1:0 winners over Barnsley in an even more boring semi-final. Cardiff are not entitled to take a place in Europe via the English system, for they are a Welsh side. Not that this stops Sepp Blatter, who has promised to rip up the rule-book if Cardiff win the cup in May.
Elsewhere, Porto has won the Portugese Superleague, a result that was never really in doubt from the start of the season. They'll join Zenit St. Petersburg, Rangers, and the Manchester Buccaneers in next year's European League.
Upsets
41 Palermo - Juventus 3:2
39 Colchester United - Ipswich Town 2:0
39 Celtic - Motherwell 0:1
37 Marseille - Lyon 3:1
36 Southampton - Bristol City 2:0
36 Eintracht Frankfurt - N¨rnberg 1:3
36 Arminia Bielefeld - Karlsruhe 1:0
34 St. Etienne - Le Mans 4:1
32 Stuttgart - Hamburg 1:0
32 Racing Santander - D.La Coruna 1:3
32 Norwich City - Burnley 2:0
32 Catania - SSC Napoli 3:0
31 Torino - Empoli 0:1
31 Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen 2:1
30 Sevilla - Villarreal 2:0
21 Middlesbrough - Manchester United 2:2
16 Dundee Utd - Rangers 3:3
Surprises in Scotland, where Celtic lost and Rangers drew. A surprise defeat for Juventus, and Stuttgart show the form that gave them the 1. Bundesliga championship last year by beating Hamburg. Bristol City's loss might cost them automatic promotion to Division I. Ligue 1 is slightly more open than it was after Marseille beat Lyon. So Lyon lost to Marseille, and Marseille lost to Carquefou... how many steps until we reach Notre Dame?
Division I
MUN 1259 81.1 18 0.22
CHE 1223 79.5 -13 -0.16
LIV 1160 76.2 57 0.75
ANL 1151 77.3 -21 -0.27
POR 1096 81.6 32 0.39
EVE 1071 77.3 -21 -0.27
TOT 1048 73.9 -27 -0.37
BLK 1022 81.6 -11 -0.13
AVL 1008 82.9 -43 -0.52
MCY 947 80.9 -43 -0.53
WHM 935 79.7 -65 -0.82
NWC 932 81.6 43 0.53
SUN 914 84.6 47 0.56
MID 912 81.5 -16 -0.20
WIG 906 83.4 34 0.41
REA 892 82.1 45 0.55
BOL 865 78.2 -46 -0.59
BIR 841 84.6 17 0.20
FUL 812 84.7 - 2 -0.02
DER 678 88.0 0 0.00
Changes are against 26 February, since when Liverpool has beaten Internazionale again. Portsmouth's success in the cup keeps them ahead of the other European challengers, while Newcastle and Sunderland have pulled themselves out of relegation danger. Derby's form this year has been so poor that one draw is enough to cover the multitude of losses.
1. Bundesliga
BAY 1128 79.9 -11 -0.14
HAM 1069 80.1 -31 -0.39
SNV 1069 80.1 -20 -0.25
WLF 1044 81.9 36 0.44
STT 1037 85.1 43 0.51
WER 1016 79.7 -53 -0.66
BYL 1012 78.0 -80 -1.03
BDO 998 82.9 2 0.02
EIN 996 86.0 22 0.26
BOC 958 86.1 13 0.15
HAN 952 86.0 -12 -0.14
KRR 947 88.1 -36 -0.41
COT 919 89.3 47 0.53
NUR 911 83.1 31 0.37
BIE 866 88.9 64 0.72
HER 861 87.3 -29 -0.33
HRS 838 90.8 -52 -0.57
DUI 811 92.7 10 0.11
MAI (II) 1012 135.3 0 0.00
AAA (II) 847 128.7 -4 -0.03
BMO (II) 816 128.0 4 0.03
Main story here has been the dives by Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen towards the 2. Bundesliga. They won't get there, it just feels like it. Bielefeld has had a good month, and may yet have done enough to survive. Monchengladbach should bounce back, and the third slot is between four sides, but it's the irresistable rise of Hoffenheim that's looking to attract attention. The side was playing in the fifth-level Nordbaden regional league as recently as 2000, when they received a massive injection of funds from a software magnate. Since then, the side has risen like a rocket through the ranks - promotion from Baden-Wüttenburg in 2001, then five seasons in the Regionalliga Nord - during which there were serious plans to merge with other clubs in the area - before making 2. Bundesliga for this term, and it's looking like first-time promotion to the top flight. Comparisons are going to be drawn with the rise and rise and rise of clubs like Chievo and Gretna. Er.
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Fri 11 Apr 2008
Those Dutch play-offs in full
The Dutch play-offs begin soon. While the whole play-off system is complex, this year's looks to be so confusing that even we're having difficulty.
The champions - probably PSV Eindhoven - will be exempt from the play-offs, and go straight to the group phase of the European League. The winner of the cup - Feyenoord or Roda - is assured a place in the Final Qualifying Round of the UEFA Cup. But the exact structure of the play-off depends on where the cup-winner finishes. The cup is played in a fallow week-end between the end of the league and the start of the play-offs.
The easiest case is if the cup-winner finishes 6th or below. In this case, the winner is exempt from the play-offs and goes off to the UEFA Cup. Positions 2-5 play off for one EL qualification round and two UEFA Cup places; the last side plays the winner of a contest involving the next four sides (probably 6-10) for the last UEFA spot, the loser of that play-off goes into the Intertoto.
However, if Feyenoord wins the cup and finishes in the top five (Roda can't get that high), they will join the play-offs, hoping for the European League berth. 6-9 will play out, and 10-13 will also have a contest of their own. The theory is that 2-5 all go into Europe, the winner of 6-9 joins them, and the runner-up of 6-9 plays the champion of 10-13 for the Intertoto spot. However, should Feyenoord take the EL spot, Roda cascades into the UEFA Cup-Loser's Cup, and the winner of 6-9 only gets the Intertoto berth. Unless that is Roda, in which case the side they beat does get to play against 10-13.
Something more simple next week: the rules to Mornington Crescent.
European League
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1:2
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1:4
Inter M 0:0 Liverpool
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b] CSKA Kens
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2:1
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1:3
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0:0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1:1
Barcelona 3:1 Barcelona
--------------------------
Roma 2:2 Manch B
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0:0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2:1
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
For much of the game, it looked as though the 202nd meeting between Arsenal and the Stadiennes would end in a 1:1 draw, as had meetings 201 and 200. But no, four goals in the last quarter-hour blew open the game. Liverpool was flattered by the scoreline, but clearly better. They'll play CSKA Kensington for the 833rd and 834th time in the last five seasons. In the bottom half, Barcelona held on for another nervy performance, while the Buccaneers sat back and soaked up Roma's pressure before scoring on the break.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1:1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1:1 [c]
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
----------
Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2 Bayern M
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1 Zenit St P
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
----------
Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1:1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4:0
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
----------
Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0:0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0:2
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0 Rangers
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
----------
Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1:2
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1:0
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
----------
PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] 2:2 in extra time, Bayern wins on away goals.
Bayern München really do like leaving things late: the equaliser came in the 89th minute, and even though Getafe scored twice in the opening five minutes of extra time, Bayern responded with two in the last five minutes. Pity the fans at the other end of the ground, or who were watching ITV, and saw none of the six goals. Elsewhere, Bayer Leverkusen won a drab match in St Petersburg, but Zenit still progress. Fiorentina overcame PSV, and Rangers won their match away to Sporting Lisbon. Useless fact of the season: Rangers has been drawn at home in the first leg of all six European League and UEFA Cup ties they've played this season, and they've not even played Westbromwich.
Rangers's fixture pile-up is now acute: in addition to already-scheduled games, the side has two postponed league games, plus anything up to two more matches in the Scottish Cup even after this Saturday's quarter-final. Expect reschedulings or a reserve side in some matches.
linkpage | EuropeanResults
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Tue 15 Apr 2008
Second cup
Scotland has been at the forefront of moves to prevent the cup runner-up from competing in Europe when they lose to the league winner (or other European League entrant). We can see their point: last year's entrants Gretna (promoted from III to II) were knocked out by Derry City, this year's team Dunfermline (relegated from I to II) also fell in the qualifiers, and now Queen of the South (certain to stay in II) have beaten Aberdeen to probably take a place in Europe. Rangers are certain of a European League place; they beat Partick on Sunday and will now play St Johnstone (II and not moving) for a spot in the final. Either way, Scotland's cup entrant - for the third season in a row - will come from Division B. The top teams are playing with one hand tied behind their backs, and this is stopping Scottish sides from taking their rightful place at Europe's top table.
43 Hamburg - Duisburg 0:1
42 Queen of the South - Aberdeen 4:3
39 Betis - Levante 0:1
38 Reggina - Sampdoria 1:0
35 Almeria - Villarreal 1:0
34 Luton Town - Brighton & Hove Albion 1:2
34 Karlsruhe - Hansa Rostock 1:2
32 Reading - Fulham 0:2
31 Preston North End - Barnsley 1:2
31 Bolton Wanderers - West Ham United 1:0
30 Werder Bremen - Schalke 04 5:1
20 CSKA Kensington - Wigan 1:1
15 Birmingham City - Everton 1:1
Elsewhere, CSKA's draw is a vital twist in the English race, giving the Buccaneers a surely impregnable margin. Werder returned to winning ways, and consigned Schalke's coach to the history books. The big upset wasn't even the end of Karlsruhe's dream, or Fulham's first away win since the Ryder Cup, but Hamburg losing to relegation-threatened Duisburg.
Primera Division
BAR 1180 74.6 -47 -0.63
SEV 1155 77.1 30 0.39
RMD 1134 78.5 -16 -0.20
VIL 1132 78.2 11 0.14
SAN 1107 75.9 20 0.26
AMD 1089 77.2 10 0.13
GET 1087 70.4 10 0.14
DEP 1085 80.9 62 0.77
MAL 1076 78.0 20 0.26
ALM 1066 83.4 1 0.01
ABL 1059 78.8 49 0.62
HEU 1040 80.8 9 0.11
OSA 1039 80.3 18 0.22
VAL 1039 75.8 -28 -0.37
BET 1018 81.1 5 0.06
VDD 1008 82.2 14 0.17
ESP 995 79.9 -71 -0.89
ZAR 968 80.1 -14 -0.17
RMC 916 84.7 11 0.13
LEV 895 83.7 -27 -0.32
MGA (II) 1014 127.4 0 0.00
SOC (II) 1001 120.4 -8 -0.07
CAD (II) 995 132.8 0 0.00
CVG (II) 941 117.1 7 0.06
TAR (II) 913 122.9 0 0.00
ALA (II) 795 124.1 0 0.00
Though Real Madrid are nine points clear of Barcelona at the top, with six to play, it's Barcelona who head our tables, courtesy of their success in Europe. Seville has also impressed this calendar year. At the foot, Levante look doomed, Real Murcia should join them. Numancia are in pole position to come up from the Segunda, with Malaga (MGA) likely to join them. There's a chance that Tarragon (TAR) may drop to the third level.
Serie A
INT 1227 82.4 - 2 -0.02
ROM 1181 75.7 - 6 -0.08
JVE 1106 84.1 28 0.33
FIO 1074 72.3 -21 -0.29
ACM 1047 75.9 -50 -0.66
SAM 1035 79.3 34 0.43
LAZ 1024 76.8 19 0.25
UDI 1012 77.7 36 0.46
GNA 995 82.0 27 0.33
SIE 969 80.3 21 0.26
NAP 952 80.8 24 0.30
PAL 946 78.8 -14 -0.18
ATL 936 79.2 -29 -0.37
REG 927 79.9 15 0.19
CAG 920 80.5 55 0.68
PAR 906 81.8 - 2 -0.02
TOR 903 79.2 -55 -0.69
EMP 894 81.1 -10 -0.12
CAT 890 77.8 - 4 -0.05
LVO 863 80.2 -50 -0.62
CHI (II) 1022 128.7 45 0.35
ASC (II) 769 122.7 -20 -0.16
MES (II) 765 128.7 -24 -0.19
It's between Inter and Roma for the title; they're 14 and 10 clear of Juventus with five matches to go. Note how the Italian sides are more evenly matched than the Spanish - 9 sides rise in Italy, compared to 14 in Spain. AC's decline continues, and the side is not assured of UEFA Cup football next season. Five points cover the bottom seven sides, and we wouldn't care to pick which three of the six sides disputing the top of Serie B will join us next season.
This mid-week is a domestic week: a full programme in 1. Bundesliga, cup matches in Italy, Spain, and France (including Carquefou hosting Paris St Germain, a match you won't be able to see on UK television) and catch-up games in England and Scotland.
linkpage | ResultsTables
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Fri 18 Apr 2008
Cup of Wisdom
We noted on Tuesday how the Scottish FA was gunning for the cup runner-up not to qualify for the Cup-Losers' Cup section of the UEFA Cup. Sounds like Serbia will be joining in the cries: the semi-finals threw Partisan against Crvena Zvedza, with Partisan winning. Their opponents will be Belgrade's 4th club, Zemun, which is facing a battle for survival in Division II.
France could yet share those concerns, even though Carquefou's gallant run is finally over, beaten 1:0 against Paris St. Germain. Lyon beat Metz, Sedan (II) beat Bordeaux on kicks from the penalty mark, and Amiens overcame Dijon in an all-division II match. Lyon are almost certain to be in the European League, and PSG has already qualified through winning the League Cup. Not that that'll necessarily save them from relegation to Division II. The two sides have been kept apart in the semi-final draw, postponing the possibility of another Cup Loser From Division II.
Of interest: the Irish Independent reviews the case for and against an all-Ireland league.
Turning now to the correspondence file, where Mr. Pokery wondered about the rating of Carquefou, and the 20% rule-of-thumb we've proposed for lower divisions. Mr. Pokery wrote,
1. Are you prepared to accept the existence of negative ratings sufficiently far down the beatpath, or will ratings eventually fall to the likes of (25,5) rather than (-300,60)?
Though it's not explicitly declared in the original formulae, it's very difficult - but not impossible - for the Rating component to pass 0.
As an example, suppose that a pub team, WLOG Sunday (1, 0.2) played Manchester Buccaneer's first team (1273, 82). The Expected result for WLOG Sunday (the E|... term) is 0.000836, so a loss will rob them of -0.000836 points, and give the Buccaneers a roughly similar figure.
However, if WLOG Sunday played WLOG Saturday (1, 0.2), then the loser would have a rating of about (0.5, 0.19). Iterate this a few times, and it is possible for the score to end up below zero. This could always be resolved by a linear adjustment such that RNew = ROld + 100, and an appropriate adjustment to RDs. Alternatively, one could follow the USCF lead and arbitrarily determine that no rating shall ever fall below a pre-determined floor (they say 100, which translates to 67 in this model.)
Obviously this is outwith the scope of your current work, but the
assumption that the fall is 20% per division is (a) a heck of an assumption and
(b) one of the most interesting parts of the system. It would be interesting to
see in practice whether Scotland's small divisions lead to greater or smaller
relative gaps between the divisions, and whether (e.g.) France's system
regionalising so much earlier than England's system makes much of a difference
here.
Anecdotally (by eyeballing the performance of promoted teams in the English pyramid during the 80s, and Germany post-unification), it appears to be closer to 20% worse for every 20 teams between. The rule appears to hold where there is a 1:1 correspondence between upper and lower division, and there is no change from part-time to full-time. It's reasonable to suppose that where there's bifurcation (say, between England V and VI-N and S) the divisions are of a standard between a national VI and VII.
Lest we forget, the Glicko rankings began in the world of chess, where a player needs to have a minimal level of skill (roughly, knowing the rules on the board) to play. On this basis, one could reasonably define a cut-off point beyond which the sides might reasonably be deemed Unranked. Off the top of our head, if the quality of play falls by 20% for every 20 teams, sides in the 7th division of English football would have a nominal rating of about (200, 40), and that's something like 13RD from the highest teams. At this scale, comparisons are quite clearly For Entertainment Only. I'd be reluctant to regularly quote for sides in England VIII, or below France V, or (in the new German structure) below Division V.
Those reforms in Germany? There will be a 3. Liga from next season, with the Regionalliga moving to the fourth level, and increasing in number to three. The Oberligas will reduce to eight, with Nordrhein and Westfalen merging. The net effect is to keep (roughly) the same number of teams nationally at Oberliga or above, but with a new national contest.
Final round of matches in the Netherlands and Greece on Sunday. PSV Eindhoven will win the Dutch league unless they lose and Ajax win. (TV: Vitesse Arnhem - PSV, Set1, taped to 6pm Sun) Olympiakos are two points clear of AEK in Greece. Other matches of note include Toulouse - Bordeaux, Barcelona - Espanyol, Grasshoppers - Zurich, and the German cup final between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München. (TV: Set2, 7pm Sat)
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Tue 22 Apr 2008
Into extra time
Beginning with the week-end's upsets.
43 Scunthorpe United - Cardiff City 3:2
39 Levante - Getafe 3:1
37 Catania - Lazio 1:0
36 Manchester City - Portsmouth 3:1
35 Nürnberg - Wolfsburg 1:0
34 Nice - Monaco 0:2
33 Seville - Almeria 1:4
32 Real Zaragosa - Recreativo de Huelva 3:0
32 Lens - Sochaux 3:2
32 Atletico Madrid - Real Betis 1:3
31 Barnsley - Leicester City 0:1
30 St. Etienne - Lorient 1:0
30 Marseille - Lille 1:3
26 St Johnstone - Rangers 0:0
20 AS Roma - Livorno 1:1
17 Blackburn Rovers - Manchester United 1:1
We'll begin with the German cup final, which Bayern won, only after extra time against Borussia Dortmund. In the one 1. Bundesliga match of the week-end, Nürnburg eased their relegation fears and just about ended Wolfsburg's hopes for the UEFA Cup. The relegation battle in England is becoming interesting; Derby are long gone, Fulham look set to join them, but many sides are still looking nervously at that last spot: Birmingham currently occupy it, and lost 5:1 to city rivals Aston Villa. It's a sign of how far Paris St. Germain has fallen that their 3:0 loss at Caen is not a surprise. Queen of the South qualified for Europe on Sunday, though St Johnstone did their best to make them work for it by taking Rangers to kicks from the penalty mark in their cup semi-final. Finally, there were titles for PSV Eindhovan, Standard Liege, and Rapid Vienna.
The Rest of Europe
Austria
GRA 800 158.4 0 0.00
RAP 786 130.9 43 0.33
AWI 715 123.1 -37 -0.30
Belgium
LIE 962 124.3 42 0.34
AND 890 105.6 18 0.17
BRU 874 131.3 38 0.29
WRG 749 119.1 -31 -0.26
BEV 513 194.7 0 0.00
Bulgaria
CSS 943 144.9 0 0.00
LIT 819 134.2 61 0.45
LSF 787 125.3 -52 -0.42
Switzerland
BAS 1013 107.7 7 0.06
ZUR 869 115.7 - 4 -0.03
GRZ 838 110.7 24 0.22
THU 612 119.6 -31 -0.26
Czechia
SLP 980 109.6 17 0.16
PRG 906 112.9 36 0.32
BLV 853 117.6 9 0.08
LIB 812 128.3 -90 -0.70
TEP 730 137.2 0 0.00
Denmark
COP 924 117.1 - 5 -0.04
ODE 909 120.3 35 0.29
AAL 905 134.7 46 0.34
BRO 764 134.5 -90 -0.67
Greece
OLY 1098 102.1 -33 -0.32
PAN 1072 102.6 24 0.23
AEK 948 99.1 59 0.60
LAR 852 111.3 21 0.19
ASS 815 105.6 - 8 -0.08
PAO 805 109.3 -64 -0.59
PIO 793 108.0 -12 -0.11
AIG 535 183.5 0 0.00
Croatia
DZA 769 160.2 0 0.00
Israel
HTA 913 130.6 0 0.00
MPT 868 142.3 - 2 -0.01
MHA 858 134.8 2 0.01
Netherlands
AJX 1107 110.1 19 0.17
PSV 1050 92.1 -50 -0.54
FEY 981 114.4 55 0.48
HEE 937 119.1 -24 -0.20
AZA 874 106.6 -29 -0.27
UTR 816 121.1 -23 -0.19
Norway
ROS 885 123.7 -24 -0.19
VIK 827 153.1 83 0.54
TRO 819 145.8 -40 -0.27
BRN 812 139.9 0 0.00
VRG 680 142.9 1 0.01
Poland
WIS 832 200.0 0 0.00
Portugal
PTO 1139 107.3 19 0.18
SLS 1071 91.7 23 0.25
BEN 950 95.3 -54 -0.57
GUI 918 140.1 0 0.00
BRG 887 109.4 -18 -0.16
Romania
RBU 1030 158.4 0 0.00
STE 873 139.3 0 0.00
DIB 866 150.0 0 0.00
Serbia
CRV 743 129.2 -57 -0.44
PBG 736 149.3 80 0.54
Russia
ZSP 1001 99.2 41 0.41
SPM 979 114.2 2 0.02
LOK 932 120.4 - 3 -0.02
CSK 912 124.3 3 0.02
Sweden
HEL 868 135.6 -24 -0.18
ELF 762 165.5 0 0.00
HAL 694 178.0 47 0.26
Slovakia
ART 682 185.1 0 0.00
Turkey
FEN 1127 99.7 40 0.40
BES 1004 113.7 -28 -0.25
GAL 890 104.1 -36 -0.35
GEN 757 124.6 60 0.48
Ukraine
SHA 959 121.5 33 0.27
KYV 950 127.9 0 0.00
DNI 830 137.3 -43 -0.31
Greatest gainers were AEK Athens, following three wins in domestic competition; Viking Stavanger and Partisan Belgrade, both beating two home sides; and Gencebirligi, one big win for a lowly-ranked side. PSV may have won their league, but also left European competition this month, as did Benfica. PAOK Salonica, Brondby, and Slovan Liberec all lost to much lower opposition.
linkpage | EuropeanTables
|
Fri 25 Apr 2008
Intertoto Draw Time
That Last Ever Intertoto Draw in Full
South-East
--------------------------------
Croatia
Macedonia Israel Spain
--------------------------------
Serbia
Greece Italy
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Bos-Herz
Montenegro Turkey Portugal
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Albania* Switzerland
Cyprus
Malta Bulgaria
Slovenia
--------------------------------
Central-Med
--------------------------------
Luxembrg Russia
Georgia Germany
--------------------------------
Azerbaijan Belgium
Slovakia Romania
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Armenia France
Moldova Ukraine
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Poland Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan Czechia
Hungary
--------------------------------
Northern
--------------------------------
Lithuania Netherlands
Estonia Norway
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Nor Ire
Finland Denmark England
--------------------------------
Faroes Scotland
Sweden
- - - - - - -
Latvia
Iceland
Rep Ire
Wales
--------------------------------
To explain the bottom entry, Latvia, Iceland, Ireland, and Wales will provide one team to the third round, to play Scotland or Sweden.
Albania is currently suspended from competition owing to government interference; if this suspension is still in force in mid-June, their place would be taken by Andorra.
European League
Arsenal 0:2
AC Milan 0:0 Arsenal 1:2
-----------------
Liverpool 2:1 Liverpool 1:4
Inter M 0:0 Liverpool 1
--------------------------
Fenerbahce 3:2 [b] CSKA Kens 1
Sevilla 2:3 Fenerbahce 2:1
-----------------
Olympiakos 0:0 CSKA Kens 1:3
CSKA Kens 0:3
==========================
Schalke 1:0 [a]
Porto 0:1 Schalke 0:0
-----------------
Celtic 2:0 Barcelona 1:1
Barcelona 3:1 Barcelona 0
--------------------------
Roma 2:2 Manch B 0
Real Mad 1:1 Roma 0:0
-----------------
Lyon 1:0 ManchB 2:1
Manch B 1:1
[a] - 0:0 in extra time, Schalke 04 won 4:1 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] - 0:0 in extra time, Fenerbahçe won 3:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
Two matches, two goals, no winners. Liverpool's goal was a cracker, but the side also conceded a rather soft own goal. Barcelona and the Buccaneers fought out a rather tedious goalless draw.
UEFA Cup
Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux 1:1 Anderlecht 0:2
----------
Aberdeen 2:1 Bayern M 5:1
Bayern M 2:5 Bayern M 1:1
================================
AEK Athens 1:0 Getafe 1:1 [c]
Getafe 1:3 Getafe 1:1
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Benfica 1:2 Benfica 0:0
Nurnburg 0:2 Bayern M 1
=============================--------------
Galatasary 0:1 Zenit St P 1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus 1:2
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Zurich 1:0 Hamburg 0:3
Hamburg 3:0 B Leverkus 1:1
================================
Marseille 3:0 Zenit St P 4:0
Spartak M 0:2 Marseille 3:0
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Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P 1:2
Villarreal 0:2
===========================================
Rangers 0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers 2:0
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Werder B 3:1 Werder B 0:1
Braga 0:0 Rangers 0:0
================================
Bolton 1:0 Sporting L 0:2
A. Madrid 0:0 Bolton 1:0
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Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L 1:1
Basle 0:0 Rangers 0
=============================--------------
Rosenborg 0:1 Fiorentina 0
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina 2:0
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Brann 0:1 Everton 0:2 [a]
Everton 2:6 Fiorentina 1:2
================================
Slavia Pr 1:1 PSV 1:0
Tottenham 2:1 Tottenham 0:1
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PSV 2:2 PSV 1:0 [b]
Helsingbgs 0:1
[a] 0:0 in extra time; Fiorentina won 4:2 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[b] 0:0 in extra time; PSV won 6:5 in kicks from the penalty mark.
[c] 2:2 in extra time, Bayern wins on away goals.
We're struggling to come up with something good to say about the Rangers game, and haven't seen highlights of the game of the night. Another brilliant piece of judgement from ITV, bringing boring draws to your television set every week.
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Tue 29 Apr 2008
Going long
The calendar for next season has been published. The Football League will run from 9 August to 2 May; Division I will play from 16 August to 23 May. The second round of the Cup drifts back to 29 November, allowing a round of the Vase, Trophy, and Conference Shield before Christmas. There will be matches on Fri 26 and Sun 28 December, but none on 1 January. The Cup reaches the last eight on 7 March, but international commitments and Easter mean that the semis don't take place until 18 April, and the final's not until 30 May, a week after the play-off finals for the League. It's the latest grand final date, beating the final of the weather-hit 1963 season (25 May) and the 1982 replay (27 May).
Meanwhile, reaction has been pouring in to the SFA's decision to publish a Schedule A and a Schedule B, depending on whether Rangers make the UEFA Cup final. We think this is a brilliant move, not only because it means Rangers don't have to play six games in one day, but also because it reminds us of the days when the Radio Times would list different television schedules depending on how the second round of the World Cup was divvied up, only to find that they'd gone for some completely different split altogether. Dion Fanning in the Independant on Sunday proposes even more radical alterations.
Upsets
41 Galarasaray - Fenebahce 1:0
38 Watford - Scunthorpe United 0:1
37 Manchester City - Fulham 2:3
36 Genoa - Empoli 0:1
34 Norwich City - Queen's Park Rangers 3:0
33 Valladolid - Almeria 1:0
32 St Mirren - Falkirk 1:0
32 D.La Coruna - Barcelona 2:0
32 Celtic - Rangers 3:2
21 Birmingham City - Liverpool 2:2
15 Murcia - Sevilla 0:0
The titles in Spain (Real Madrid) and Germany (Bayern München) are decided, barring some of the biggest shocks in history. Not so in England, where a late penalty gave CSKA Kensington a 2:1 victory over the Buccaneers, putting the sides level on points, though the side from Trafford has a far superior goal difference. Scotland's also open: Celtic enjoys a 5-point lead over Rangers, but has played three more games. Finally, the lack of games from France and Germany in the upset list is not down to laziness, but because there were no upsets: six draws in the nine 1. Bundesliga games rather put paid to shocks there.
Europe's First and Second XI
Changes from 18 March.
01 +2 CHE 1251 77.2
02 -- MUN 1249 78.1
03 -2 INT 1228 82.1
04 -- ROM 1180 76.9
05 +2 LIV 1179 75.9
06 +5 RMD 1164 78.6
07 -2 BAR 1158 74.2
08 +1 VIL 1158 78.5
09 +5 PTO 1153 105.6
10 +8 BAY 1145 76.1
11 +5 JVE 1139 82.2
12 -4 ANL 1133 78.4
13 -7 SEV 1124 78
14 -2 LYN 1124 79
15 ne DEP 1123 80.5
16 +4 AJX 1107 111.5
17 ne MAL 1103 78.4
18 -8 OLY 1098 103.6
19 re BDX 1092 77.6
20 +1 FEN 1085 98.7
21 ne FIO 1081 72.1
22 ne SAN 1075 76.3
Out of the top 22 go Getafe (13-33), Hamburg (15-47), Portsmouth (17-23), Bayer Leverkusen (19-44), and Everton (22-34).
The national averages, taking the top five sides:
en 1176.8
es 1151.6
it 1127
de 1058
fr 1057.6
gr 950.8
sc 892.8
Neither Portugal nor the Netherlands has five sides with RDs below 120; no other nation has five sides in the ranking.
Monte Carlo Model
01 +3 Manchester Buccaneers
02 +1 CSKA Kensington
03 -1 Internazionale
04 -3 Roma
05 +2 Real Madrid
06 -1 Barcelona
07 +3 Liverpool Stadiennes
08 +7 Villarreal
09 -3 Porto
10 +6 Ajax
11 +7 Juventus
12 +9 Bayern München
13 ne Deportivo la Coruna
14 -5 Arsenal
15 -4 Olympiakos
16 -3 Lyon
17 -5 Fenebahçe
18 -10Sevilla
19 -5 Sporting Lisbon
20 +2 Panathanaikos
21 ne Mallorca
22 ne Almeria
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