A Glicko Sports Blog

April 2006

Sat 01 Apr 2006

The March Tables

First order of business, the week's European results, in draw order:

Arsenal - Juventus 2:0
Inter Milan - Villarreal 2:1
Lyon - AC Milan 0:0
Benfica - Barcelona 0:0

Levski Sofia - Schalke 04 1:3
Sevilla - Zenit St Petersburg 4:1
Rapid Bucharest - Steaua Bucharest 1:1
FC Basel - Middlesbrough 2:0

The betting - Zenit lost, Benfica drew, so -0.85 on the matches, and the month finishes at -4.55/33. The year so far is on +3.25/190.5, which still represents a return on investment.

Division I table:

CHE	1221	83.2	-2
MUN	1161	78.6	45
LIV	1123	73.4	-12
ANL	1112	76.2	59
BLK	1051	78.2	15
BOL	1034	76	-22
TOT	1028	82.7	38
EVE	1006	79	17
WHM	1006	76.2	-20
MID	968	71.8	-19
WIG	955	76.6	1
NWC	949	77.7	-29
MCY	941	77.1	-40
AVL	939	77.6	-38
CHA	937	77.8	45
FUL	911	81.1	-1
POR	886	83.4	41
BIR	865	78.3	-41
WBA	858	82.2	-23
SUN	686	87.5	-27

Nine games unbeaten now for the Manchester Buccaneers, they are closing in on Chelsea's top position here, if not in the League. Arsenal has also improved all-round, and it's good to see Everton back near 1000. Charlton are picking up after a poor couple of months, Portsmouth's rise owes a lot to their fluke win over West Ham B. Sunderland's rating is clearly too low.

Division II:

REA	916	77.3	-12
LEE	840	78.2	-23
CPL	826	76.1	-15
WAT	825	80.7	-17
PNE	822	77.7	-31
WLV	787	78.8	-17
SFU	779	78.8	-36
LEI	751	79.1	54
CDF	750	79.7	6
IPS	744	79.5	-19
COV	734	79	-2
NOR	725	79.7	19
DER	709	79.4	28
PLY	698	78.4	25
MIL	688	79.1	34
STK	683	78.8	25
SOT	682	79.5	-33
LUT	678	81.2	-23
QPR	670	80.3	-21
HUL	669	80.8	25
SFW	660	81.3	50
BNL	636	79.7	-12
CRW	586	80.7	23
BRI	574	80.1	12

Anything less than a straight set of wins will tell against Reading, whose rating is clearly too high. Sheffield Utd's poor run is catching up with them, but this has been the month where mid-table sides came through and levelled it out a bit.

Up to Scotland, then:

CEL	1079	90.1	34
RAN	948	79.9	28
HRT	889	82.4	10
ICT	815	81.3	33
KLM	801	82.8	3
ABD	796	81.9	-30
HBS	787	80.8	-17
MTW	756	81.1	0
DDU	694	82.9	4
DNF	661	83.5	4
FAL	583	84.1	-35
LVG	509	85.9	-26

Celtic have all but wrapped up the title, the main focus is between Hearts, Rangers, and Hibs for positions 2, 3, and 4. There's a side-bet on whether Inverness can make the top six, to-day's match against Aberdeen should settle that one decisively.

Spain:

BAR	1246	76.6	-36
RMD	1154	77.4	14
VAL	1134	83.2	-77
OSA	1116	86.7	4
ZAR	1096	82.6	-10
SEV	1089	77.9	44
AMD	1054	85.5	-38
VIL	1033	78.9	-30
DEP	1027	78.6	-18
CVG	1024	86.8	-38
ABL	1008	84.5	55
GET	1001	85.9	41
SAN	1000	89.6	-6
BET	993	78.6	5
ALA	981	90.3	33
ESP	976	78.1	-5
MAL	970	87.6	5
SOC	922	85.8	-20
MGA	861	90.4	22
CAD	828	87.6	23

A poor month for Valencia, slipping off the title race. Don't read too much into the small moves in mid-table, and remember that Athletico and Getafe are on the bounce from poor Februaries.

Europe:

AWI	912	136.4	AUSTRIA VIENNA	84
GRA	839	124.6	GRAZER	-40
RAP	698	127.5	RAPID VIENNA	-28

LIE	851	140.0	LIEGE	0
AND	822	116.1	ANDERLECHT	52
BRU	768	105.0	BRUGGE	-30
BEV	477	131.3	BEVEREN	-17

LSF	869	114.4	LEVSKI SOFIA	27
LIT	803	130.0	LITEKS LOVECH	-10
CSS	731	146.7	CSKA SOFIA	13

BAS	988	107.7	BASEL	32
GRZ	729	136.9	GRASSHOPPERS ZURICH	32
THU	679	117.7	THUN	-26

SLP	888	131.2	SLAVIA PRAGUE	0
TEP	861	147.3	TEPLICE	-32
PRG	692	122.8	SPARTA PRAGUE	20

BAY	1109	101.3	BAYERN MUNICH	-31
SNV	1099	99.1	SCHALKE 04	-36
HAM	1045	106.4	HAMBURG	46
STT	1026	103.0	STUTTGART	-43
WER	977	100.9	WERDER BREMEN	-66
HER	922	112.5	HERTHA BERLIN	44
BYL	910	114.4	BAYER LEVERKUSEN	73
AAA	837	188.7	ALAMENIA AACHEN	0

BRO	778	157.1	BRONDBY	0

LYN	1186	89.4	LYON	25
BDX	1104	107.5	BORDEAUX	0
MAR	1041	91.2	MARSEILLE	-16
PSG	1015	107.2	PARIS ST GERMAIN	24
LIL	996	90.1	LILLE	-6
MON	938	93.9	MONACO	26
AUX	935	102.9	AUXERRE	-23
LEN	927	101.2	LENS	23
SCX	826	98.6	SOCHAUX	-76
REN	817	108.9	RENNES	32
STR	811	98.1	STRASBOURG	-23

TIB	493	184.4	DINAMO TIBLISI	0

OLY	1070	112.6	OLYMPIAKOS	0
PAN	942	110.3	PANATHANAIKOS	55
AEK	932	112.0	AEK ATHENS	-41
PAO	746	119.1	PAOK SALONIKA	-4
AIG	735	131.2	AIGAELIO	0
ASS	659	173.7	ARIS SALONIKA	0
PIO	494	126.5	PANIONIOS	-28

DZA	780	200.0	DYNAMO ZAGREB	0

FER	825	200.0	FERENCVAROS	0

MTA	705	183.4	MACCABI TEL-AVIV	0
MPT	589	149.1	MACCABI PETAH-TIKVA	0

ACM	1174	91.0	AC MILAN	28
JVE	1138	87.2	JUVENTUS	-12
INT	1104	85.1	INTER MILAN	19
PAL	1030	95.4	PALERMO	79
ROM	1008	87.9	ROMA	-12
LAZ	872	100.9	LAZIO	17
PAR	865	112.2	PARMA	61
PER	854	200.0	PERUGIA	0
UDI	840	91.2	UDINESE	-58
SAM	828	103.8	SAMPDORIA	-79

PSV	1079	97.1	PSV EINDHOVEN	-30
AZA	989	101.9	AZ ALKMAAR	39
FEY	982	124.4	FEYENOORD	-19
AJX	941	98.1	AJAX	-6
UTR	895	122.6	UTRECHT	7
HEE	804	104.3	HEERENVEEN	-34

ROS	841	120.3	ROSENBORG	0
TRO	752	147.2	TROMSO	0
VIK	749	146.2	VIKING STAVANGER	0
VRG	664	152.1	VALARENGEN	0

AMI	996	190.3	AMICA WRONKI	0
GRO	732	190.4	GROCLIN GRODZISK	0

SLS	978	131.5	SPORTING LISBON	-8
BEN	948	109.0	BENFICA	29
PTO	924	124.5	PORTO	7
GUI	802	133.3	GUIMARES	74

RBU	1019	117.2	RAPID BUCHAREST	-7
STE	954	108.9	STEAUA BUCHAREST	51
DIB	761	161.6	DINAMO BUCHAREST	0

ZSP	1023	112.2	ZENIT ST PETERSBURG	7
LOK	949	142.9	LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW	0
CSK	937	123.1	CSKA MOSCOW	0

HAL	652	159.6	HALMSTADS	0

ART	727	133.5	ARTMEDIA BRATISLAVA	0

BES	1022	128.8	BESTIKTAS	0
FEN	956	121.6	FENERBACHE	0
GEN	793	152.5	GENCENBIRGILI	0

KYV	1029	157.4	DINAMO KYIV	0
SHA	929	122.0	SHAKTAR DONETSK	0
DNI	803	136.6	DNIPRO	0

RSB	798	153.0	RED STAR BELGRADE	0
PBG	796	166.1	PARTISAN BELGRADE	0

A lot of losses for German sides in Europe tells against the nation as a whole.

Gainers this month: Palermo, Bayer Leverkusen (two upset wins in as many weeks), Austria Vienna (beating both of the other ranked sides in Austria), Guimares, Parma, Panathaniakos, Steaua Bucharest (all from the UEFA Cup.) Losers: Sochaux, Sampdoria, Werder Bremen (lost to Bayer), Udinese.

The betting for this week-end:

Fulham - PORTSMOUTH (4.10/3.20)
Hertha Berlin - STUTTGART (3.30/2.90)
Udinese - PARMA (3.80/3.10)

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Tue 04 Apr 2006

Update 040406

So, Gretna will meet Hearts in the Scottish Cup Final. And, the way Hibs' challenge for the league is fading, could yet make their European debut before Inverness CT.

Newcastle's 3:1 win over Spurs was the surprise in England this week-end, closely followed by Portsmouth's win at Fulham, also 3:1. Birmingham staved off relegation, holding Chelsea to a 0:0 draw. Upsets abounded in Division II, but not for Reading, 5:0 winners against Derby and now confirmed as division champions. The upsets were... Hull - Leeds 1:0 (39) ... Millwall - Brighton 0:2 (35) ... Plymouth - Wolves 2:0 (33) ... QPR - Crewe 1:2 (33) ... Southampton - Cardiff 3:2 (32) ... Luton - Ipswich 1:0 (31). Brighton's win means the relegation battle is much closer.

Some results from Europe - Hertha Berlin - Stuttgart 2:0 (32) ... Zaragoza - Villarreal 0:1 (31) ... Osasuna - Getafe 0:4 (34) ... Betis - Seville 2:1 (34) ... PSG - Bordeaux 3:1 (31)

Return matches in the European quarter-finals this week, plus a potential Scottish title decider between Celtic and Hearts. Our betting:

Celtic - HEARTS (6.20 / 3.50)
Juventus - ARSENAL (4.55 / 3.30)

Portsmouth's win took last week-end to +0.6/4.5.

linkpage | BettingResults |

Fri 07 Apr 2006

Dutch Courage 070406

European League, Viertelfinal, Ruckmatch

Juventus - Arsenal 0:0 (0:2)
Villarreal - Inter 1:0 (2:2)
Villarreal wins 1:0 on away goals
AC Milan - Lyon 3:1 (4:2)
Barcelona - Benfica 2:0 (2:0)

UEFA Cup, Viertelfinal, Ruckmatch

Zenit - Seville 1:1 (2:5)
Schalke 04 - Levski Sofia 1:1 (4:2)
Steaua - Rapid 0:0 (1:1)
Steaua wins 1:0 on away goals
Middlesbrough - Basel 4:1 (4:3)

Middlesbrough pulled off an amazing recovery, scoring their fourth goal to go ahead in the last minute of normal time in a match where both keepers went to the opposite end for set-pieces. Lyon may have fallen out of the contest this week in the most unfortunate circumstances - conceding two goals in injury time - but they'll be back in the group phase of next year's edition. Celtic, as winners of the Scottish League, would take the unused Defending Champ's Place if it's available - ie if Barca or AC wins the tourney - otherwise will start in the Sorting Hat Round.

Hearts currently head Rangers by three points for second place. If Hearts remain second, they will take the second EuroLeague place (entry in the Second Qualifying Round), and the UEFA Cup representation will be those well-known giants of football, Rangers and Gretna. Better of the two will gain access to the Final Qualifying Round; worse will be in the Second Qualifying Round. However, if Rangers manage to finish second, and Hearts win the Scottish Cup final, then the side finishing fourth in Division A - probably Hibs - will take the second UEFA Cup spot. Are we going to see Hibs playing to lose to the 'Gers, and thus increase their chances of making Europe?

Of course, all this is completely academic if - nay, when! - Gretna beats Hearts in the Cup.

What do the various successes and failures mean for the country rankings, which determine entry for the 2007-8 contests?

Spain, Italy, and England remain a mile clear at the top. France will remain ahead of Germany in fourth place, with Portugal and the Netherlands in 6th and 7th. Zenit's tame exit means that Russia remains behind Greece. Romania will move ahead of both Greece and Russia if Steaua can beat Middlesbrough with a win and a draw or better, or winning by two draws and then drawing or winning the final. Eighth place entitles the country to a 3rd European League slot and an additional UEFA Cup spot. Basel's loss means that Switzerland remains in 16th, and misses out on a second EL place.

Over in the Netherlands, we have an entertainingly complex series of play-offs for four UEFA Cup spots, and one Intertoto place. It even makes the San Marino Championship look simple. The Dutch champions go through to the European League, and aren't involved in any of this nonsense. Ajax is guaranteed at least a place in the UEFA Cup through its national cup success against champions PSV. Here's the schedule:

If Ajax finishes in the top five: 1st round (22/23 April and 25/26 April)
A.2-5 -- loser UEFA-cup
B.3-4 -- loser UEFA-cup
C.6-9
D.7-8
E.10-13
F.11-12

2nd round (29/30 April and 2/3 May)
G.winner A-winner B -- winner CLQ, loser UEFA-cup
I.winner C-winner D -- winner UEFA-cup
J.winner E-winner F

3rd round (11 and 14 May)
L.loser I-winner J -- winner Intertoto

If Ajax does not make the top five:

1st round (22/23 April and 25/26 April)
A.2-5
B.3-4
C.6-9
D.7-8
E.10-13
F.11-12

2nd round (29/30 April and 2/3 May)
G.winner A-winner B -- winner CLQ, loser UEFA-cup
H.loser A-loser B -- winner UEFA-cup
I.winner C-winner D
J.winner E-winner F

3rd round (11 and 14 May)
K.loser H-winner I -- winner UEFA-cup, loser Intertoto

(Unless winner I is Ajax, in which case the Dutch FA have screwed up.)

Hope that's perfectly clear.

One other domestic result of note - Birmingham beat Bolton 1:0 (38 upset points) to move out of the relegation zone, and leave Bolton scrabbling for a UEFA Cup spot.

Celtic may have soaked up all the pressure, but they won, so the Hearts bet is lost. Arsenal's draw is worth +0.65, so it's -0.85 on the mid-week, -0.25/7.5 this month. Something for the week-end?

Tottenham - MAN CITY (4.75 / 3.40)
Leeds - PLYMOUTH (4.85 / 3.50)
Monaco - MARSEILLE (2.90 / 3.10)

linkpage | BettingEuropeanResults |

Mon 10 Apr 2006

Update 1004

In England, very few upsets in Division I. Perhaps the greatest surprise came at the Stadium of Light, where Sunderland didn't go down. Nor did they win, lose, or draw. The game against Fulham was abandoned during the first half, owing to a snow-storm. Manchester B beat Arsenal, Chelsea came from behind to better West Ham, so as you were at the top. A couple of surprises in Division II, Sheffield W lost 2:0 at Crewe (30 upset points) and Leicester pipped Palace 2:0 (35). We still don't know the identities of any promoted or relegated clubs. Except Reading, who are still on course to score more points than anyone ever in Division II.

A couple of upsets in Scotland, Livingston inflicted a 2:1 defeat on Inverness (45 upset points), but still look doomed. Falkirk beat Dundee U 1:0 (33). Brechin will go down from Division B to Division C.

In European upsets, it was:

PAOK - AEK 2:1 (37)
Sparta Prague - Slavia Prague 2:1 (36)
Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich 3:0 (34)
Monano - Marseille 1:0 (33)
Santander - Barcelona 2:2 (17)

In the betting, Plymouth scraped a draw (+0.75), but Marseille and Man City both lost. With very few matches this mid-week, we see no value in placing any bets, so will remain at -2.5/12 on the month.

linkpage | BettingResults |

Thu 13 Apr 2006

Boro Bother 130406

Middlesbrough has become a regular on national television - Wednesday's match against Charlton was the club's ninth appearance on BBC-1, BBC-2, C5, or ITV4 in as many weeks. But success comes at a price, and the club now has a tremendous fixture pile-up:

15 Apr - Portsmouth (a)
17 Apr - West Ham (h)
20 Apr - Steaua Bucharest (UEFA, a)
23 Apr - West Ham (FA, Villa Park)
27 Apr - Steaua Bucharest (UEFA, h)
29 Apr - Everton (h)
7 May - Fulham (a)
10 May - UEFA Cup Final?
13 May - FA Cup Final?

tba - Manchester Buccaneers (a) (was 22 Apr)
tba - Bolton (a) (was 28 Dec)

The Bolton match has implications for UEFA Cup qualification next year, and might reasonably be played first. Does anyone much care if Boro v Bucs turns into a B-team exhibition on or around 16 May?

Espanyol won the Spanish cup, and book their ticket for the UEFA Cup. Eintracht Frankfurt of 2. Bundesliga - and on course for relegation to the Regionalliga - will come through from the German cup. Linfield have won the Northern Irish league, and Glentoran have the cup place. And Rangers will play in the UEFA Cup Q1. That's Ranger's of Andorra...

The draw for the Intertoto Cup took place on Monday, and it's geographically seeded right through.

Northern section

England(2) v Norway(19)/[Iceland(35)/N.Ireland(43)]
[Sweden(25)/Finland(31)]/[Estonia(42)/Wales(44)] v Netherlands(6)
Denmark(22)/[Lithuania(34)/Ireland(37)] v Scotland(9)/[Latvia(30)/Faroe Is(47)]

Central-Med section

Spain(1) v Serbia-Montenegro(16)/[Slovenia(27)/Andorra(49)]
France(4) v Ukraine(14)/[Slovakia(26)/Luxembourg(45)]
Germany(5) v Russia(12)/[Belarus(38)/Kazakhstan(48)]
Czechia(11)/Switzerland(18) v Belgium(8)
Austria(13)/[Georgia(33)/Armenia(39)] v Poland(17)/[Moldova(32)/Azerbaijan(46)]

Southern section

Italy(3) v Bulgaria(20)/[Romania(24)/Macedonia(36)]
Greece(7) v Turkey(10)/Hungary(23)
Israel(15)/[Bosnia(29)/Malta(40)] v Croatia(21)/[Cyprus(28)/Albania(41)]

First round 17/18 and 25/26 June, involving teams 24 and below. []
Second round 1/2 and 8/9 July, involving teams 9 and below.
Third round 15/16 and 22 July, involving the remaining teams.

Almost a quarter of the entrants are known, or probably known.

Russia: Rubin Kazan (prob, depending on cups)
Norway: Lillestrom
Sweden: Kalmar
Latvia: Dinaburg
Finland: Tampere
Lithuania: Vetra Vilnius
Iceland: Keflavik
Ireland: Shelbourne
Faroes: HB Torshaven
Kazakhstan: Kairat Almaty
Andorra: St Julia (prob, 4 clear with 2 to play)

Scotland's entrants will be Hibs or Inverness Caledonian Thistle, thus making it impossible for ICT *and* Gretna to play in Europe. Next season.

Look out for a completed bracket once the season has finished, in a month or so. The winners of the third round progress to the second round of the UEFA Cup.

The week-end's betting:

Portsmouth - MIDDLESBROUGH (3.50 / 3.50)
Athletico Madrid - ATHLETIC BILBAO (4.00 / 3.00)
Lille - BORDEAUX (3.00 / 2.80)

linkpage | BettingResults |

Mon 17 Apr 2006

Update 170406

After the week-end's matches, here's the way things are standing.

England Division I: Chelsea will finish in the top two, Manchester B and Liverpool in the top three. Sunderland are relegated. Tottenham head Arsenal by four for fourth; Blackburn are sixth. West Brom and Birmingham occupy the other relegation spots.

Division II: Reading are champions, Sheffield United also promoted. Watford, Leeds, Preston, and Crystal Palace will feature in the play-offs. Millwall, Crewe, and Brighton look set to go down. This division will probably be all over after to-day's matches.

Division III: Southend are certain of the play-offs, and should gain automatic promotion. Brentford head Colchester and Huddersfield by one point for the other automatic slot. Swansea and Barnsley are holding the other play-off spots, with Notts Forest and Oldham also in the hunt. Franchise, Swindon, Walsall, and Hartlepools are on the trap-doors, with Rotherham, Yeovil, and Blackpool within three points. This whole division could easily go to the end of the season.

Division IV: Carlisle, Northampton, Leyton Orient, and Rimsby are in contention for automatic promotion; Carlisle look certain, and all four are assured of a play-off spot. Wycombe and Cheltenham also look set for the play-offs, Peterborough head Lincoln, Darlington, and Bristol R for the last spot. Torquay look doomed to leave the League; Rushden and Barnet are level on points for the other drop spot, with Stockport, Bury, and Rochdale also in danger.

Division V: Accrington Stanley has won the division, and will play league football next year. Result! Hereford are qualified for the play-offs, Halifax look set to join them, Grays and Morecambe head Stevenage and York for the other two slots. Forest Green and Scarborough are in the two relegation places, with Southport and Tamworth also in danger.

Division VI: Northwich Victoria, who took relegation from V last year over their ground, are top of the North table; it's not clear if they'll be allowed up. Stafford, Nuneaton, Droylsden, and Harrogate are in play-off spots. Weymouth and St Albans are in contention for the South win; Lewes and Farnborough will be in the play-offs, Welling head four teams to join them. Hednesford, Leigh, Hayes, and Maidenhead are in the relegation zone, but all could yet escape.

Division VII: Salisbury have won the SW division, with Bath, King's Lynn, Chippenham, and Bedford in the play-offs. Evesham, Aylesbury, and Chesham are going down.
From VII (N), Frickley or Blyth will go up, Farsley, Marine, and North Ferriby look to make the play-offs. Runcorn are down, Radcliffe and Bradford Park Avenue look set to join them.
VII (SE) should be won by Braintree, with Fisher, Heybridge, Hampton and Richmond, and Staines fighting for the play-offs, but Wimbledon are just one point behind. Redbridge and Windsor and Eton look doomed, and it's not good for Maldon or Hendon.

Division VIII (Anglia) should see Boreham Wood and Enfield go up - that'll be the second straight elevation for Enfield. The SW And Midlands division will see Clevedon and (probably) Ashford go up. Mossley and Kendal are heading up from the N division, with Ramsgate and Horsham elevated from the SE league. There are play-offs, but relegation is not certain for the bottom sides, as there will be a new Division VIII Midlands from next year.

Manchester United fans will be pleased to learn that they've won their Division XI league with only one more defeat than Gretna.

In Scotland, Celtic are champions. Hearts lead Rangers by five points for second; Hibs are two clear of Kilmarnock in the battle for fourth. Livingston has reduced the gap at the bottom to just five points.

Division B has been won by St Mirren, with Brechin relegated. Stranraer or Queen of the South will be in the promotion/relegation battle.

Gretna won't, they won Division C by a mile. Greenock Morton will be in the play-offs, with Peterhead and Partick probably joining them - Stirling's the only side with anything to say. Alloa and Dumbarton will take the relegation and play-off place down to the wire.

It's another tense finish in Division D, with Cowdenbeath and Berwick locked together, and Stenhousemuir just behind. Elgin, Queen's Park, and Arbroath are vying for the third slot. East Stirling will finish bottom, which is not news.

The teams for the Dutch play-off are now known:

1st round
A. AZ Alkmaar - Gronigen -- loser UEFA-cup
B. Feyenoord - Ajax -- loser UEFA-cup
C. Utrecht - Twente
D. Heerenveen - Roda
E. NEC - Heracles
F. Vitesse - RKC

2nd round
G. winner A-winner B -- winner CLQ, loser UEFA-cup
I. winner C-winner D -- winner UEFA-cup
J. winner E-winner F

3rd round
L. loser I-winner J -- winner Intertoto

In the betting, three more losses bring the total for the year into the negative. Great. Two bets for mid-week:

Arsenal - VILLARREAL (5.00 / 3.10)
Schalke - SEVILLE (3.75 / 3.20)

linkpage | BettingResults |

Fri 21 Apr 2006

Relegation, that's what we need

Belgium! The little country that could has taken the lead in the Fair Play contest, overhauling Sweden in the spring matches. At the moment, eleven countries will vie for the other two spots in the UEFA Cup July Special First Qualifying Round; this may change over the coming weeks.

For the third year in a row, it looks like relegation from Division V (the Conference) to the Divisions VI will be decided by off-the-field matters. In 2004, a combination of poor grounds, resignation, and liquidation meant that no teams were relegated in the normal manner; last year, another ground problem reprieved Forest Green.

This year, with just two teams going down, we had a fascinating five-team race, involving Scarborough, Tamworth, Southport, Forest Green, and Altrincham. After Scarborough's thumping 7:2 defeat at the hands of Grays on Wednesday, it looked as though hell would freeze over before Altrincham went down.

On Thursday, news broke that Cerberus had been piddling in the snow again. And that Altrincham would, indeed, be heading down. The reason? Their mid-winter transferee, James Robinson, had not received international clearance before he was fielded. During the games he played, Altrincham scored 18 points; those have now been removed from the club's record, moving the club down from 5 clear of the relegation zone to 12 adrift of safety.

But there's still a possible cop-out clause. Scarborough, reprieved from the two relegation spots by Thursday's fiat, have been in financial administration since 2004. If they are not out of administration very soon, they will be automatically relegated. And following the withdrawal of their chairman's funding Canvey Island look set to resign from the Conference, probably to rejoin at or around Division VII (SE). And with Tamworth just one point ahead of Forest Green, but finishing with two teams bound for the play-offs, Mystic Mug reckons that there will be a fair few pence floating around in August.

In other news, Manchester United has (not surprisingly) won its league at Division X by a country mile. The team is playing at Gigg Lane in Bury, and has opened talks about buying the ground from the cash-strapped Division III side and leasing it back to them.

Slightly higher up the table, Birmingham relieved their relegation pressures by winning 2:1 against Blackburn. Equal opportunity defeats for the Lancashire Bs there. Brighton, Millwall, and Crewe were all relegated from Division II, meaning that league is all over with two matches to go.

Results from the European matches this week.

European Cup, Halbenfinal, Hindmatch

 Arsenal - Villarreal 1:0
AC Milan - Barcelona  0:1

UEFA Cup, Halbenfinal, Hindmatch

      Schalke 04 - Sevilla       0:0
Steaua Bucharest - Middlesbrough 1:0

Our betting tipped Villarreal and Sevilla, so another small loss for the books. It's the final acts of betting, and here are the final three tips.

Werder - SCHALKE (3.95 / 3.30)
Celta Vigo - ZARAGOZA (4.00 / 3.10)
Seville - BARCELONA (2.35 / 3.10)

Two wins means we finish the year in profit; a win and two draws means it's a statistical tie.

linkpage | BettingResults |

Tue 25 Apr 2006

Update 250406

Well, I think the final result just about tells the story of the year's betting:

Sevilla - Barcelona P:P (Thunderstorm)

The Pools Panel can say away win as much as it likes, it won't cut any ice with the book-makers. A loss, a draw, and a no result this week-end, bringing the betting year to a soggy close. The month was -4.25/22.5.

The bottom line: the betting is down, fractionally. Down by 4 units out of 217.5 bet; given that book-makers operate on a margin of around 10%, I reckon that's a moral victory, if not an actual monetary one.

The league-by-league break-down:
EngI -13.75 / 55.5
EnII + 5.00 / 19.5
SctA +22.95 / 45
SpnI + 5.70 / 28.5
Cups - 4.80 / 12
Euro -19.10 / 57

The serious point to take away is that we probably shouldn't be betting on the UEFA Cup, as that showed just three wins all season.

Domestically, West Ham are the fifth side into Europe next season, joining Spurs-or-Arsenal in the UEFA Cup Final Qualifying Round. The Hammers beat Middlesbrough 1:0 in the FA Cup semi-final; they'll play Liverpool, 2:1 winners over Chelsea, and winners of a 33-point upset.

Spurs and Arsenal drew 1:1 in an ill-tempered affair. Arsenal's qualification for the European League is still in their own hands; if they beat Villarreal and Barcelona, they'll take the spot, and Spurs will go into the UEFA Cup. Portsmouth beat Sunderland 2:1, leaving Birmingham (0:0 at Everton) in trouble.

One upset in Scotland, where Hibs did their bit to finish third, beating Hearts 2:1 (35 upset points). Rangers and Celtic drew 0:0. English II saw Sheff W - Reading 1:1 (17).

More upsets on the continent, starting with Monaco's defeat of French champs Lyon. Monaco had something to play for, and won 2:1 (39). Bayer Leverkusen beat Hamburg 2:0 (36), it was Villarreal - Sociedad 0:2 (32), and Juventus - Lazio 1:1 (17) means the Italian league title remains open for at least one more week.

Other European qualifiers:

Nancy (as French League Cup winners) will appear in the UEFA Cup.
Porto has won the Portugese league; Sporting Lisbon and Benfica will take the next two places. Vitoria Setubal has the Cup place, Sporting Braga is in through the league.
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord lost their Dutch playoffs and will take UEFA Cup spots; Gronigen (5th) and Ajax (4th) will play for the Euroleague place.
Galatasaray and Fenerbahce will be Turkey's entries into the Euroleague, with Bestiktas qualifying through the cup.
To the surprise of no-one, Dinamo Kyiv and Shakhtar Donetsk will be Ukraine's entries to the Euroleague. Metalurg Zaporizhia take the cup place.
Israel's league has been won by Maccabi Haifa, with Hapoel Tel-Aviv and Beitar Jerusalem entering the UEFA Cup.
Red Star Belgrade has won in Serbia; city rivals Partizan and OFK will be in the UEFA.
Sion has won the Swiss cup.
Sheriff Tiraspol are the Moldovan champions, with Nistru Otachi entering through the cup.
Vaduz has won the Liechtenstein cup.
Pyunik Yerevan the Armenian champs, Mika Ashtarak second.
In Estonia, it's TVMK Tallinn ahead of Levadia Tallinn.
Northern Ireland: Linfield top, Glentoran through the cup, Portadown third.
Wales: Llansantffraid over Llanelli.
Andorra: Rangers win, St Julia go to the Intertoto.

The big match is at the foot of Division IV, where Stockport host Torquay in a loser-is-sure-to-go-down match. Some catch-up matches in England I this mid-week, plus semi-finals of the European League and UEFA Cup. Live coverage:

Tu 7.30 ITV / TV3 / DSF / TSN / RDS - Villarreal -v- Arsenal
We 7.30 RTE2 / Sat1 / TSN / RDS - Barcelona -v- AC Milan
Th 7.30 ITV4 - Middlesbrough -v- Steaua Bucharest
Th 7.30 DSF - Schalke 04 -v- Sevilla
Fr 7.45 Eurosport 2 - Catania -v- Verona

Also highlights of Euroleague matches 11pm Thursday and 8.30am Friday on Eurosport (2.30pm on RDS.) UEFA highlights 10.30 Thursday and 9.30 Friday, also on Eurosport. It's a shame that no television station in the UK will be covering Barca's match until Thursday night.

linkpage | BettingResults |

Fri 28 Apr 2006

Being fair to Middlesbrough

Results from the European League Halbenfinalen, Ruckmatch:

Villarreal - Arsenal 0:0 (0:1)
Barcelona - AC Milan 0:0 (1:0)

The key point of the Arsenal match was Ballack's save of a penalty on 90 minutes. There had been people who said he shouldn't be the German national goal-keeper; these people have been rather absent of late.

UEFA Cup, Halbenfinalen, Ruckmatch:

Middlesbrough - Steaua Bucharest 4:2 (4:3)
Sevilla - Schalke 04 0:0 (0:0)
-- Sevilla wins 1:0 in extra time

For those who missed Boro's dramatic comeback against Basle three weeks ago, the team laid on an encore at the Riverside last night. Two-nil down and needing to score four after half an hour, then slotting the last goal in with moments to spare.

So much for the Premier League's pledge to stop top clubs being distracted by fixture congestion. Middlesbrough will now face Everton on Saturday, a trip to Manchester Buccaneers on Monday re-arranged from last week-end, another trip to Bolton on Wednesday postponed from 28 Dec, before finishing the league with a visit to Fulham on Sunday week, and then the UEFA Cup Final against Sevilla. Boro's RD - a measure of how busy the side has been - is already at an implausibly low 68.9, and will fall further as they play five matches in four rounds. By the time the season's over, Boro will have played 64 games, 39 since New Year's Eve, and had just one mid-week without a game (1 March) since the end of January. The game against the Bucs has no place in determining anything of significance, and could easily be played on the Sunday after the end of the regular season.

Television coverage this week-end:

French Cup Final: PSG - Marseilles (Highlights, Sa 10pm ESPT) Serie A: Messina - AC Milan (Sa 7pm PLYR) Serie A: Siena - Juventus (Su 7pm BRVO) Serie B: Arrezzo - Rimini (Mo 7.45 ESPT2)

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

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