A Glicko Sports Blog

February 2008

Wed 06 Feb 2008

Is it Carquefou? Or Carquebas?

Derby County has been taken over by General Sportsanentertainment, a retired military person from Washtanaw country. We visited the General's website in a hope of learning more about him, but the page returned completely blank. The Durby Blankwebsites, as they'll now be known, are the fourth Division I side in North American ownership, following the Manchester Buccaneers, Birmingham Browns, and Liverpool Stadiennes. Or, as they almost got re-named last week, the Liverpool Havant a Waterclooville.

Real fans of the Stadiennes have launched a multi-million pound attempt to buy out their club's owners. According to Share Liverpool, if 100,000 fans purchase shares at £5000 each, they'll have enough money to oust Hicks and Gillett, and build a new stadium with the small change. If they can't afford Liverpool, they might as well buy the last side to have led them.

In the CFL, the Off-White Cup has been won by New Jersey/A, who beat the New Southamptonshire Terrorists by two goals and a penalty to two goals. The NCAA-ball desk has been searching for people who see this sort of result as the greatest argument for a poll to decide the real national championship. The line of thought: it's ludicrous to say that six-loss Jersey/A is better than the one-loss Terrorists, or even the four-loss Cowpersons and Cheeseheads. The Sagarin computation shows that the Terrorists are miles ahead of all other teams, so what's this nonsense about Jersey/A being the winners? We can be certain that the people who insist that one-off results trump season-long quality will deem Jersey/A the champions. And then, in the same breath, argue against a play-off for NCAA-ball. Bonkers.

The Upset-o-meter

46 Siena - Roma 3:0
45 Scunthorpe United - Charlton Athletic 1:0
43 Fulham - Aston Villa 2:1
39 Werden Bremen - Bochum 1:2
39 Almeria  - Real Madrid 2:0
38 Wigan Athletic - West Ham United 1:0
37 Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen 2:1
37 AEK Athens - Panonios 2:3
36 Preston North End - West Bromwich Albion 2:1
35 Udinese - Catania 1-2
35 Racing Strasbourg - Metz FC 0:3
35 Napoli - Udinese 3:1
35 Leicester City - Crystal Palace 2:0
34 West Ham United - Liverpool 1:0
34 Queen's Park Rangers - Bristol City 3:0
34 Lazio - Fiorentina 2-1
33 Southampton - Norwich City 0:1
32 Brighton & Hove Albion - Crewe Alexandra 3:0
31 Southend United - Leeds United 1:0
31 Sedan - Troyes 0:1
31 Blackpool - Leicester City 2:1
30 Norwich City - Preston North End 1:0
30 Coventry City - Barnsley 4:0

19 HIBERNIANS - Rangers 0:0
19 DERBY COUNTY - Manchester City 1:1
18 Juventus - CAGLIARI 1:1
16 PORTSMOUTH - Chelsea 1:1
16 Fenerbahce - GALATASARAY 0:0
15 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - Manchester United 1:1
15 Levante  - SANTANDER 1:1

Siena knocks off Roma, Scunthorpe wins for the first time since decimalisation, and Fulham for the first time since Mr. Fayed was a small Egyptian grocer. Oh. Werder had the chance to go top if they'd beaten Bochum, but it wasn't to happen; Schalke overpowered Stuttgart to go fourth. Real Madrid lose, Wigan win.

Cup matches in Germany (Round 4, where Werder lost to Dortmund) and France (Round 5) don't properly fit within the model, but we can come up with some sort of approximate figures. Actually, take these with a liberal pinch of salt, it's more to laugh at top flight clubs who lost to little guys.

38* TSV 1999 Hoffenheim (II) - Hansa Rostock 2:1
44* Carl Zeiss Jena (III) - Arminia Bielefeld 1:1
 ** Carl Zeiss Jena won 1:0 in extra time.

40*	Sochaux FC - Montpellier Herault SC (II)	1:1
 ** Sochaux won 1:0 in extra time.
43*	Bastia Sporting Club (II) - Auxerre 	3:0
47*	Angers SCO (II) - Nice OGC	3:1
55*	Carquefou (V) - Nancy-Lorraine 0:0
 ** Carquefou won 1:0 in extra time.

We understand that Carquefou is already in talks about twinning itself with Havant. Or was it Waterlooville? Anyway, the third-placed side in France losing to a part-time club playing in the 5th division is something the fans are going to remember forever.

The First XXII

01 -- INT   1306   85.6
02 +1 MUN   1258   83.0
03 +2 CHE   1255   80.8
04 -- BAR   1246   77.8
05 -3 RMD   1200   80.6
06 -- ANL   1195   78.6
07 +3 ROM   1156   81.3
08 +10OLY   1155  102.3
09 +7 BAY   1141   95.9
10 +3 SEV   1135   77.4
11 +1 FEN   1129  107.3
12 -1 PTO   1126  105.4
13 -5 VIL   1120   78.0
14 -5 AMD   1112   76.4
15 -8 ESP   1108   81.1
16 re ACM   1105   79.3
17 -- JVE   1102   90.0
18 +3 SNV   1102   87.0
19 re PSV   1101  100.1
20 ne BDX   1099   81.4
21 -6 LYN   1096   80.1
22 -2 HAM   1093   91.6

Movements are against 1 January. Minimum RD remains 110; out go Valencia (22-27), Werder Bremen (19-32), and Liverpool (14-25).

Top Five Averages will return at the March international break, as domestic competitions are as near zero-sum as to make no odds.

Monte Carlo Model

01 -- Inter Milan
02 +4 CSKA Kensington
03 +2 Arsenal
04 -- Barcelona
05 +2 Manchester Buccaneers
06 +8 Roma
07 -5 Real Madrid
08 +8 Bayern München
09 +1 Fenebaçhe
10 -2 Porto
11 +1 Olympiakos
12 +10Panathanaikos
13 +7 Sevilla
14 re PSV Eindhoven
15 +6 Schalke 04
16 +1 Juventus
17 ne Ajax
18 -9 Villarreal
19 ne Bordeaux
20 -9 Lyon
21 re AC Milan
22 -9 Atlético Madrid

Out go Espanyol (7), Liverpool Stadiennes (15), Werder Bremen (18), Hamburg (19).

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Tue 12 Feb 2008

Play away!

Division I clubs have announced provisional plans to play a 39th round of matches, outside the UK. Extending the season in this way is a blatant cash grab, will do nothing to improve the quality of the game, and can only cause further congestion to an already overcrowded schedule. We will require a lot of convincing to treat these matches as anything other than mid-season friendlies, fit only to be ignored, just as we already treat the charity community shield. The Sports Economist has an interesting take: this could be a device to engineer a court case between Division I and FIFA over whether the national boundaries have any significance any more.

Upsets

45 Manchester Buccaneers - Manchester City 1:2
37 Stuttgart - Hertha Berlin 1:3
37 Larissa - AEK Athens 1:0
37 Empoli - Lazio 1:0
36 Barnsley - West Bromwich Albion 2:1
34 Espanyol - Recreativo Huelva 1:2
33 Cardiff City - Norwich City 1:2
31 Hapoel Tel Aviv - Maccabi Petah Tikva 2:1
30 Osasuna - Zaragoza 1:0

It was only a matter of time before Hertha returned to winning ways, and to do so against the (surely former) league champions is the mark of a quality side. The top two met in Germany, with Bayern München and Werder Bremen drawing 1:1 in one of the worst games it's been our misfortune to see this year. Schalke 04 won 3:2 at Borussia Dortmund to consolidate third place. No upsets in France, where the vagaries of the schedule mean that Lyon has drawn level with Bordeaux. Real Madrid announced their intentions in Spain, beating Valladolid 7:0. In the battle of foreign sides, CSKA Kensington and the Liverpool Stadiennes drew 0:0 in a match that made Bayern - Werder look gripping. And Inter Milan won again, taking their ranking to 1311.

Division II

STK   843   76.0    7   0.09
CHA   833   76.9   17   0.22
WBA   820   75.8  -18  -0.24
WAT   812   76.4  -10  -0.13
BRC   804   79.4  -24  -0.30
CPL   782   76.8  -10  -0.13
HUL   779   77.7   14   0.18
CDF   778   75.9  - 5  -0.07
SFU   769   76.4    8   0.10
IPS   753   76.9  - 1  -0.01
WLV   753   76.1  - 1  -0.01
QPR   747   77.7   29   0.37
PLY   746   75.6  -25  -0.33
BNL   740   77.2   26   0.34
BAN   736   75.8  - 5  -0.07
PNE   736   76.7   48   0.63
NOR   731   77.8   53   0.68
SOT   723   76.1  -20  -0.26
LEI   693   76.0    2   0.03
BPL   689   77.6    6   0.08
COV   686   76.6  -30  -0.39
SFW   674   76.0  -33  -0.43
CCR   653   79.5    5   0.06
SCU   608   82.4    7   0.08

LEE (III)   692   114.2  -50  -0.44
SEN (III)   680   107.8    6   0.06
LUT (III)   677   113.0    0   0.00
MIL (III)   596   116.0  - 7  -0.06
CRW (III)   568   129.0  -59  -0.46
BRI (III)   541   119.9   50   0.42

Changes are against 6 January. Is this the only table that Stoke will head this year? Quite possibly. The only big moves are Preston and Norwich, as much a reversion to their means after early-season disasters.

linkpage | Tables |

Fri 15 Feb 2008

The UEFA Cup is back

From the department of good news, sense appears to be prevailing in Division I's attempt to spread its tentacles overseas. Amongst the opponents of the proposed 39th game are FIFA, the Asian Football Conference, and the Football Association from Lancaster Gate. The number of supporters can be counted on the fingers of a sawmill operator's hand.

UEFA Cup, First Round Proper, First Leg

Anderlecht 2 [42]
Bordeaux   1
----------
Aberdeen   2 [18]
Bayern M   2
==========
Rangers    0
Panath'kos 0
----------
Werder B   3
Braga      0
==========
Bolton     1 [43]
A. Madrid  0
----------
Sporting L 2
Basle      0
==========
Galatasary 0
B Leverkus 0
----------
Zürich     1
Hamburg    3
==========
AEK Athens 1
Getafe     1
----------
Benfica    1
Nürnburg   0
==========
Rosenborg  0
Fiorentina 1
----------
Brann      0
Everton    2
==========
Slavia Pr  1
Tottenham  2
----------
PSV        2
Helsingbgs 0
==========
Marseille  3
Spartak M  0
----------
Zenit St P 1 [40]
Villarreal 0

Surprises in both matches at the top of the draw, with Anderlecht inflicting Bordeaux's first away defeat of the season, and Aberdeen securing a draw against Bayern - the only German side in trouble. Rangers have it all to do in Greece, with Werder surely in wait. Surprise defeats for the two favourites from Spain, Atlético falling at Bolton, and Villarreal at Zenit; both sides are only one down, but it's a loss. Galatasaray had the better of the match against Bayer Leverkusen, and we can't but think they've had their chance. Everton look to have done enough, as do Marseille, but there's just a chink of light that might yet give PSV an almighty scare at Helsingborgs.

In domestic competition, Watford moved clear in Division II, as they won and West Brom drew. Top-flight Motherwell and Dundee Utd left the Scottish Cup, beaten by lower opposition. AC Milan could only draw with Livorno.

41 Motherwell - Dundee 1:2
33 Dundee United - St Mirren 0:1
33 Colchester United - Preston North End 2:1
30 Millwall - Southend United 2:1

The week-end highlights include Manchester Buccaneers -v- Arsenal in the FA Cup Achtelfinalrund (BBC-1, 5.15 Saturday), Bordeaux -v- Monaco in Ligue 1 (Setanta 1, 6pm Sunday), Villarreal -v- Santander in the Primera, Karlsruhe -v- Bayer Leverkusen in 1. Bundesliga, and Juventus -v- Roma in Serie A.

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

Tue 19 Feb 2008

Hansel and Gretna

FIFA has growled at the Spanish government, who have insisted that the Spanish FA - and all other governing bodies represented there - hold their annual elections before August's Crass Spectacle. Sepp Blatter muttered the word suspension.

After three successive promotions, it looks like the rot has set in at Gretna, where players have not had their wages arrive on time, and have sold many of the players who gave them their season in Division A; the latest is that the club's management has quit, and administration is looming. Maybe St Johnstone should have secured promotion last season after all.

Round Four of the FA Cup saw two big shocks - the Liverpool Stadiennes lose out to an injury-time winner from Barnsley, and Southampton's dream is over, losing 1:0 at Bristol Rovers. West Brom hit five past Coventry, Manchester Buccaneers' B team won 4:0 over Arsenal Reserves, and Cardiff and Plymouth also won. Sheffield Utd and Middlesbrough will replay, while Chelsea completed their win over Huddersfield and left the Upset-o-meter quivering on 1.

On the continent, an unexpected defeat for Real Madrid at the hands of Betis, and Atlético slumped to their second straight defeat, Bilbao picking up where Bolton left off. In Germany, Wolfsburg beat Schalke 2:1; Italy's pick saw Juventus better Rome 1:0.

The classified upsets

49 Liverpool - Barnsley 1:2
44 Bristol Rovers - Southampton 1:0
43 Real Betis  - Real Madrid 2:1
37 Levante - Osasuna 2:1
36 Le Mans - Lyon 1:0
35 Schalke 04 - Wolfsburg 1:2
35 Metz - Valenciennes 2:1
34 St. Etienne - Nancy 4:0
34 Hibs - Aberdeen 3:1
34 Atl.Madrid - Athl.Bilbao 1:2
32 Hansa Rostock - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0
31 Leicester City - Norwich City 4:0
30 Juventus - Rome 1:0
15 Parma - AC Milan 0:0

Ligue 1

As we've seen, Lyon lost to Le Mans, allowing Bordeaux to go clear at the top of the Glickoblog standings following a 6:0 thumping of Monaco.

BDX  1090   80.5   18   0.22
LYN  1081   82.0  -54  -0.66
MAR  1064   76.4   52   0.68
NIC  1027   83.9  - 5  -0.06
LEN  1024   81.6   61   0.75
LOR  1003   81.2  - 3  -0.04
LEM   998   81.8  - 3  -0.04
AUX   996   80.9   37   0.46
PSG   986   82.4    8   0.10
NCY   983   83.1  -57  -0.69
LIL   967   85.2   39   0.46
CAE   959   85.2  -48  -0.56
MON   956   81.8  - 3  -0.04
SET   930   83.2    5   0.06
VCN   924   81.0  -60  -0.74
STR   916   86.4  -10  -0.12
SCX   909   84.1   27   0.32
TOU   883   80.9  -43  -0.53
REN   882   80.1  -17  -0.21
MTZ   860   88.0   36   0.41

NTS (II)   920   122.5  - 1  -0.01
SED (II)   908   118.7  -50  -0.42
TRY (II)   897   126.2   52   0.41

Changes are against 9 January.

So, after leading the way since we started covering the French league two-and-a-half seasons ago, Lyon has been deposed as France's number one team. They still head Ligue 1, but this may not last. Marseilles and Lens have bounded up, but Toulouse's remarkable slide continues.

Division A

RAN  1038   83.2   25   0.30
CEL   995   85.6   48   0.56
ABD   838   76.3  -78  -1.02
DDU   799   78.7   38   0.48
MTW   792   83.4  -25  -0.30
FAL   781   81.8  -37  -0.45
HBS   781   82.6   56   0.68
ICT   758   83.9  -27  -0.32
STM   737   82.5   40   0.48
HRT   724   80.4   39   0.49
KLM   642   85.0  -42  -0.49
GRE   567   91.3  -14  -0.15

LVG (II)   608   132.7   -19   -0.14
DNF (II)   584   126.1   -56   -0.44

Though Celtic has closed the gap, Rangers remains at the summit for a second month. Aberdeen's challenge has rather faded, while Hibs is amongst the sides reverting to the mean. Gretna, sadly, is now a point worse than Crewe, and only Brighton enjoys (?) a lower ranking.

linkpage | Tables |

Fri 22 Feb 2008

European events

European League, Achtelfinalrund

Celtic     2
Barcelona  3
----------
Lyon       1
Manch B    1
----------
Schalke    1 [32]
Porto      0
----------
Liverpool  2 [43]
Inter M    0
----------
Roma       2
Real Mad   1
----------
Arsenal    0
AC Milan   0
----------
Olympiakos 0
CSKA Kens  0
----------
Fenerbahce 3 [36]
Sevilla    2

Top to bottom: Barcelona twice came from behind to defeat Celtic, but the return should be a formality. Lyon also look to have had the better leg, but it won't get them very far. Schalke's win is a surprise, but Liverpool's is the big upset of the round, setting up the interesting prospect of Barnsley -v- Inter Milan next season. Many commentators were surprised that Roma beat Real, but Glickoblog only showed this as a 29-point upset; Roma's rise has rather been overshadowed by Inter's runaway success. Not sure who has the better of the matches involving the London sides, but while Seville's defeat is unexpected, it may not be fatal.

UEFA Cup, First Round Proper, Ruckfarrund

Anderlecht 2:1
Bordeaux   1:1 Anderlecht
----------
Aberdeen   2:1 Bayern M
Bayern M   2:5
=========================
Rangers    0:1
Panath'kos 0:1 Rangers
----------
Werder B   3:1 Werder B
Braga      0:0
=========================
Bolton     1:0
A. Madrid  0:0 Bolton
----------
Sporting L 2:3 Sporting L
Basle      0:0
=========================
Galatasary 0:1
B Leverkus 0:5 B Leverkus
----------
Zurich     1:0 Hamburg
Hamburg    3:0 [-18]
=========================
AEK Athens 1:0
Getafe     1:3 Getafe
----------
Benfica    1:2 Benfica
Nurnburg   0:2
=========================
Rosenborg  0:1
Fiorentina 1:2 Fiorentina
----------
Brann      0:1 Everton
Everton    2:6
=========================
Slavia Pr  1:1
Tottenham  2:1 Tottenham
----------
PSV        2:2 PSV
Helsingbgs 0:1
=========================
Marseille  3:0 [-35]
Spartak M  0:2 Marseille
----------
Zenit St P 1:1 Zenit St P
Villarreal 0:2

Again, the edges of the draw throw up surprises: Anderlecht and Zenit convert their upset wins last week into two-legged victories this, joined by Bolton's remarkable victory over Atlético; they stand a chance against Sporting Lisbon, though not a good one. Rangers have a narrow win against a side ranked just slightly above them. Benfica left it late, both of their goals coming in second-half injury time - the first was sufficient to clinch qualification. As we thought, Galatasaray's 0:0 draw last week was as good as it got; Zürich and Spartak Moscow bow out of the tournament with rich parting shots. Everton set up their expected match against Fiorentina, while Tottenham will play PSV in what must be the tie of the next round.

Highlight of the week-end is Bayern München -v- Hamburg (Set2, 4pm Sunday), a match that Hamburg needs to win to remain in contention for the title. Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke 04 clash on Saturday (tape: Set2, 6.30 Saturday). In Italy, Roma host Fiorentina, both sides are in European League contention. Everton play Manchester City (Set1, 8pm Monday) in a battle of European places, while Tottenham or Chelsea will book their ticket to the UEFA Cup courtesy of the League Cup final (Radio 5 from 3pm Sunday; highlights ITV, 11.15 Sunday)

linkpage | EuropeanResults |

Tue 26 Feb 2008

England and Germany

The week-end's upsets

43 Reggina  - Juventus 2:1
40 Kilmarnock - Aberdeen 3:1
40 Cagliari - Lazio 1:0
38 Zulte Waregem - Anderlecht 1:0
37 Eintracht Frankfurt - Werden Bremen  1:0
37 Blackpool - Charlton Athletic 5:3
35 Sheffield Wednesday - Cardiff City 1:0
35 Rennes - Lorient 2:0
35 Real Madrid - Getafe 0:1
33 Osasuna - Atl Madrid 3:1
33 Motherwell - Hearts 0:1
33 Deportivo - Espanyol 2:0
31 West Bromwich Albion - Hull City 1:2
31 Bochum - Hannover  2:1
30 Udinese - Genoa 3:5
30 Arminia Bielefeld - Duisburg  0:2

21 Birmingham City - Arsenal 2:2
18 Sampdoria - Inter 1:1
18 PAOK Thessaloniki - Olympiakos 1:1

Division I

MUN  1241   82.0  - 4  -0.05
CHE  1236   80.7  - 9  -0.11
ANL  1172   78.3  -23  -0.29
LIV  1103   79.5    1   0.01
EVE  1092   76.6   35   0.46
TOT  1075   74.4   60   0.81
POR  1064   83.0   44   0.53
AVL  1051   83.3  - 8  -0.10
BLK  1033   82.4    2   0.02
WHM  1000   81.3  -17  -0.21
MCY   990   80.2  -18  -0.22
MID   928   81.4   18   0.22
BOL   911   78.3   26   0.33
NWC   889   82.2  -17  -0.21
WIG   872   84.9  -14  -0.16
SUN   867   85.2    9   0.11
REA   847   83.3  -60  -0.72
BIR   824   87.5  - 2  -0.02
FUL   814   85.0  - 9  -0.11
DER   678   85.4  -21  -0.25

Changes against 22 January show the effects of the domestic cup here, as twelve sides register a net loss, and only Portsmouth (FA Cup), Everton (UEFA) and Tottenham (UEFA and League cup, which the side won in extra time) make significant progress. Reading's form has been abysmal, now eight games without a win.

1. Bundesliga

BAY  1139   88.7    9   0.10
HAM  1100   86.1    1   0.01
BYL  1092   84.4   39   0.46
SNV  1089   83.2  - 5  -0.06
WER  1069   82.8  -49  -0.59
WLF  1008   89.1   63   0.71
BDO   996   89.3   44   0.49
STT   994   87.9  -12  -0.14
KRR   983   94.9  - 1  -0.01
EIN   974   91.2   41   0.45
HAN   964   90.5  -37  -0.41
BOC   945   91.1   49   0.54
HER   890   93.3   50   0.54
HRS   890   98.5    2   0.02
NUR   880   83.1  -34  -0.41
COT   872   92.8  -32  -0.34
BIE   802   91.8  -91  -0.99
DUI   801  100.0   15   0.15

MAI (II)  1012   128.4   27   0.21
AAA (II)   851   129.4    0   0.00
BMO (II)   812   128.6  -27  -0.21

For the second year running, and notwithstanding their defeat of Schalke on Saturday, Werder Bremen look like they're imploding. Bayern and Hamburg drew 1:1. Hertha Berlin looks to have done enough to have avoided relegation, but Bielefeld's good start to the season is coming off the rails.

Full league programmes in Scotland and Italy this mid-week, and cup contests in most other leading nations. Except England, whose idea of a week off is ... to take a week off.

linkpage | ResultsTables |

Fri 29 Feb 2008

Spanish flea

The cup mid-week begins in Romania, where Dinamo and Rapid Bucharest both fell out in the last 8. Steaua lost in the previous round, ensuring that there will be a winner from outside Bucharest for the first time since 1995. Stuttgart fell out of the German Cup to Carl-Zeiss Jena (II, but falling to III at this rate) on kicks from the penalty mark, and Bayern München needed a last-gasp winner to avoid penalties against 1860 München. The Swiss Cup final will be between Basel, surely bound for the title, and Bellinzona, leaders of the II division. An entertaining semi in the French League Cup saw Le Mans and Lens tied 2:2 at half-time, 4:4 at the end of 90 minutes, before Lens won 1:0 in extra time. They'll play PSG in the final. No shocks in Portugal, where Porto, Benfica, and Sporting Lisbon are joined by Vitória Setúbal. Israel is up to the last 32, and the big shock is that Maccabi Tel-Aviv is out already, losing 1:0 to city rivals Beitar / Shimshon in extra time. And in England, Middlesbrough are one place closer to Europe, but required an own goal by the Sheffield Utd keeper deep in extra time to progress.

The upsets

42 Galatasaray - Fenebaçhe 1:0
38 Preston North End - Stoke City 2:0
34 Gretna - Kilmarnock 4:2
33 Parma - Udinese 2:0
22 Stuttgart - Jena (II) 1:1
 1:1 in extra time; Jena wins 5:4 on kicks from the penalty mark
22 Bayern München - 1860 München 0:0
 Bayern wins 1:0 in extra time.

We'll have tables from Spain and Italy on Tuesday. The main rumbling from Spain is the threat to that country's participation in Euro '08: the government wants to bring forward the elections for the Spanish FA, UEFA reckons that's interference in the FA's affairs, and they've banned countries for less. Beneficiaries of any exclusion would be Northern Ireland.

linkpage | Results |

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