Fri 03 Feb 2006
Round-up
A lot of shocks in Division I last Wednesday - Chelsea were held 1:1 at Aston Villa (18 on the upset-o-meter), Liverpool drew with Birmingham (18), Bolton drew at Portsmouth (15). And there's more. Arsenal lost 3:1 to West Ham (33), Manchester B fell 4:3 at Blackburn (34), and Fulham beat Spurs 1:0 (35). None of the top six won. Only one surprise in Division II, Plymouth knocking off Southampton (32). Not much to note in the postponed matches from Divisions III and IV, but an important move in Division V, where leaders Accrington Stanley won 3:1 at Exeter. The Stans now look certain to return to the league. In Europe, AC Milan fell out of the Italian cup, beaten 3:0 by Palermo (the biggest upset, 44).
In the betting, Blackburn's win was worth +3.10. Cardiff and Millwall drew 1:1 (+0.70), and Ajax beat Heerenveen 3:0 (-1.50). It's still +2.30 on the mid-week, and +10.15 from 16.5 this month.
For the week-end, we're travelling...
Rennes - Monaco (2.85 / 3.00)
Chelsea - Liverpool (4.75 / 3.20)
Deportivo - Valencia (2.80 / 3.10)
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Tue 07 Feb 2006
Result-o-rama 070206
Let's start with the betting:
Rennes - Monaco 0:3 (+2.35)
Chelsea - Liverpool 2:0 (-1.50)
Deportivo - Valencia 0:1 (+2.30)
So +3.15 on the week-end, +13.30 / 21 from the month so far. Result!
Chelsea are now a mile ahead of all-comers. Very few upsets in Division I, only West Brom's 2:0 win over Blackburn (38) counts.
A few more upsets in Division II - Leicester's losing run came to an end, beating Wolves 1:0 (36). Hull won 3:2 at Luton (31), and Sheff W won 1:0 at Millwall (33). Reading came from behind to win 4:3 at bottom club Crewe; their lead extends further after Sheff U lost to Watford.
Scotland's Cup went to the last 16, and Hearts and Hibs are the only winners. Six replays! Hibs beat Rangers (37 upset points), Hearts beat Aberdeen, both won 3:0. Division B leaders St Mirren were held 0:0 by non-league Spartans; both progress further in the cup than The Old Firm.
Valencia did well in Spain, a 37-point upset, but Athletico Madrid knocked off Barcelona 3:1, and that's for 45.
And this mid-week?
(2.80 / 3.20) Stuttgart - Werder Bremen
Birmingham - Reading (3.65 / 3.20)
(4.40 / 3.30) Aberdeen - Rangers
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Fri 10 Feb 2006
Update
Just the one upset in the English cup replays: Birmingham beat Reading 2:1 (32). In fairness, Reading did send out their B-team. In Scotland, Aberdeen beat Rangers 2:0 (38), and in Division I, Charlton overcame Liverpool 2:0 (45) in a match postponed from August. The Italian cup saw a 1:1 draw between Juventus and Parma (22), and the Spanish game saw Zaragoza book their place in the final, winning the first leg against the first-team Real Madrid side 6:1 (34). And Egypt won the African Cup of Nations, beating Cote d'Ivoire 4:2 on kicks from the penalty mark, after 0:0 and 0:0.
We were behind Reading (-1.50) and Aberdeen (+3.90), and Stuttgart - Werder ended 0:0 (+0.60). Stuttgart have fired their manager, one week before the crunch UEFA Cup tie against Middlesbrough. +3 on the mid-week, +16.30 on 25.5 bet this month.
This week-end, it's three outsiders at attractive odds. Portsmouth - Manchester B and Sunderland - Tottenham are both 5.00 / 3.50. Also QPR - Millwall (3.45 / 3.10).
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Mon 13 Feb 2006
The mighty are falling!
Now, what's happening to Europe's top teams? In January, AC Milan had a poor run of form, and now Barcelona are in a slump. A 1:0 defeat to Valencia (32 upset points) drops Barca to a ranking of 1250. They're 70 points lower than two week-ends ago.
English leaders Chelsea have also had a dodgy time of it - drawing with Everton, and now slumping to a 3:0 defeat at Middlesbrough (47 upset). It's the first time Chelsea have lost by more than the odd goal since 2004. Other shocks in England - Newcastle's 2:1 win at Villa (31), Everton downing Blackburn 1:0 (30), and Sunderland's 1:1 draw against Spurs (18).
In Scotland, Hearts are back in the headlines, after allegations that the Lithuanian owner is picking the team. The side lost 2:1 against Aberdeen (33), the Dons' second big result in four days. Celtic beat Rangers 1:0, and must surely finish atop Division A.
A few other results of note: Santander won 2:0 at Espanyol (30), Lens drew 1:1 with French leaders Lyon (17), and Schalke 04 beat Bayer Leverkusen (SEVEN) 7:4.
The betting took a downwards turn - Manchester B beat Portsmouth 3:1 (-1.50), Sunderland drew with Spurs (+0.75), and Millwall lost 1:0 at QPR (-1.50). So -2.25 on the week-end, but still +14.05/30 this month.
The big match this mid-week is the Division II title decider. If Reading win at Sheffield Utd, there's surely no way anyone can beat the Royals. There's also the first leg matches in the UEFA Cup's First Round Proper, and three of them provide the only decent betting opportunities:
Lille - Shakhtar Donetsk (3.60 / 3.00)
Udinese - Lens (3.60 / 2.90)
Real Betis - AZ Alkmaar (3.50 / 3.20)
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Thu 16 Feb 2006
UEFA and domestic results 160206
We'll start in Scotland and work down the continent. Inverness will not be playing in Europe through the cup, as they lost on penalties to Partick Thistle. Another Division C side Gretna advance to the quarter-finals, where they're joined by Dundee and St Mirren (of Division B), Falkirk, Motherwell, Hibs, and Hearts (of Division A).
A major rubicon was crossed at Barnet on Tuesday night. Lincoln won 3:2, and became the first club in Division IV to string together a run of four league wins all season. No fewer than fifteen teams had had three wins on the bounce, but none of them had managed to go that extra game. Stockport's win over Rochdale, coupled with Bury and Torquay drawing, mean the side climb to the dizzy heights of 20th. Wycombe are top.
In Division III, cup specialists Brentford beat Southend 2:0, Colchester were held to a goal-less draw against Walsall, and Huddersfield came back into the promotion race.
Division II's top two drew, Sheffield Utd drew 1:1 against Reading, keeping the Royals' lead to a mere 12 points.
In the UEFA Cup First Round Proper, we recorded six upsets. They're included in the results in draw order.
Hertha Berlin - Rapid Bucuresti 0:1
Thun - Hamburg 1:0 47
Basel - Monaco 1:0 34
Litex Lovetch - Strasbourg 0:2 31
Stuttgart - Middlesbrough 1:2 35
Club Brugge - Roma 1:2
Heerenveen - Steaua Bucuresti 1:3
Real Betis - AZ Alkmaar 2:0 34
Slavia Prague - Palermo 2:1 31
Schalke 04 - Espanyol 2:1
Bolton - Marseille 0:0
Rosenborg - Zenit St Petersburg 0:2
Udinese - Lens 3:0
Artmedia Bratislava - Levski Sofia 0:1
Lille - Shakhtar Donetsk 3:2
Lokomotiv Moscow - Sevilla 0:1
Yep, a great week for Swiss sides, though they'll have their work cut out to maintain their advantage in next week's return legs. Steaua looks to be the only side certainly through, though it'll take a lot for Udinese to fail from here. And good to see that our prediction of Lille - Shakhtar being one to watch has come through.
In the betting, we had Shakhtar, Lens, and AZ. All lost, so -4.50 on the mid-week, +9.55/30 on the month. This week-end:
Tottenham - Wigan (4.55 / 3.30)
Norwich - Derby (3.90 / 3.20)
Hearts - Motherwell (5.00 / 3.40)
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Tue 21 Feb 2006
Cupdate 210206
For the fourteenth season running, a non-league team will win the FA Cup. The last league representatives - Southampton, Preston, Stoke, Colchester, Brentford - all fell to top flight opposition, as did the Manchester Buccaneers. The quarter-final draw: Chelsea - Newcastle; Birmingham - Liverpool; Charlton - Middlesbrough; AVilla/ManC - Bolton/WestH. Matches will be played in the traditional replay slot around 22 Mar; it's not clear where the replays will go.
The week-end's big upset was locked in by 10pm Friday, as Luton took a 3:2 win over Reading. It's the first league defeat for the Royals since the opening day of the season, and ranks 44 on the upset-o-meter. Plymouth surprised Cardiff 3:1 (32).
Two big upsets on the continent, Rennes defeated Lens 4:1 (41), and Guimares overcame Benfica 2:0 (40). There were two 34-point upsets - Sochaux over Auxerre (1:0) and Utrecht's 3:2 win at AZ Alkmaar. The betting was also a source of upset - Derby lost to Norwich, Motherwell messed up at Hearts, and Spurs grabbed a late equaliser to deny Wigan a win. -2.35 on the week-end, still +7.20/34.5 on the month.
First leg matches in the European League Achtelfinals, second legs in the UEFA Cup First Round Proper. The betting is all in the Cup:
Espanyol - Schalke 04 (2.90 / 3.20)
AZ Alkmaar - Betis (3.45 / 3.10)
Seville - Lokomotiv Moscow (5.00 / 3.50)
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Fri 24 Feb 2006
European results 240206
European League, Achtelfinals, first leg.
Bayern Munich - AC Milan 1:1
Benfica - Liverpool 1:0 (44)
PSV Eindhoven - Lyon 0:1
Real Madrid - Arsenal 0:1 (37)
Ajax - Inter 2:2 (16)
Chelsea - Barcelona 1:2
Rangers - Villarreal 2:2
Werder Bremen - Juventus 3:2 (38)
UEFA Cup, First Round Proper, second leg.
Hertha Berlin - Rapid Bucuresti 0:1 0:2 (0:3)
Thun - Hamburg 1:0 0:2 (1:2)
Basel - Monaco 1:0 1:1 (2:1)
Litex Lovetch - Strasbourg 0:2 0:0 (0:2)
Stuttgart - Middlesbrough 1:2 1:0 (2:2)
(Middlesbrough wins 2:0 on away goals)
Club Brugge - Roma 1:2 1:2 (2:4)
Heerenveen - Steaua Bucuresti 1:3 1:0 (2:3)
Real Betis - AZ Alkmaar 2:0 0:2 (2:2)
(Betis wins 1:0 after extra time)
Slavia Prague - Palermo 2:1 0:1 (2:2)
(Palermo wins 1:0 on away goals)
Schalke 04 - Espanyol 2:1 3:0 5:1
Bolton - Marseille 0:0 1:2 (1:2)
Rosenborg - Zenit St Petersburg 0:2 1:2 (1:4)
Udinese - Lens 3:0 0:1 (3:1)
Artmedia Bratislava - Levski Sofia 0:1 0:2 (0:3)
Lille - Shakhtar Donetsk 3:2 0:0 (3:2)
Lokomotiv Moscow - Sevilla 0:1 0:2 0:3
The upsets - Heerenveen's win was worth 35, AZ Alkmaar's 33, Lens 30. Artmedia's brave run is over, but who thought they'd get past August, never mind come within a goal of making Europe's Top 16? And get no further than pre-season favourites Monaco?
For clarity, the last 16 draw:
Rapid Bucharest - Hamburg
Basel - Strasbourg
Middlesbrough - Roma
Steaua Bucharest - Real Betis
Palermo - Schalke 04
Marseille - Zenit St Petersburg
Udinese - Levski Sofia
Lille - Sevilla
We were on Schalke (who won), Lokomotiv and Betis (who lost), so -0.60 on the night. Last week-end of the month!
A tremendous spread of potential bets this week-end - those offering value include Stuttgart, Villa, QPR, Preston, Cardiff, Millwall, Lille, Falkirk, Zaragoza, and Mallorca. The formal bets are:
Newcastle - Everton (3.45 / 3.10)
Betis - Sociedad (3.80 / 3.10)
Liverpool - Man City (5.50 / 3.50)
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Tue 28 Feb 2006
February's Tables
Another month over, and time to look at the tables. It's around this point that the early games in the league begin to drop out of the rankings, they are a reflection of strength over the last 25 games or so. Starting, as ever, with English Division I:
CHE 1223 84.6 -73
LIV 1135 74.7 -42
MUN 1116 77.3 27
BOL 1056 75.6 9
ANL 1053 74.4 -48
BLK 1036 76.4 -17
WHM 1026 78.7 79
TOT 990 81.5 -28
EVE 989 78.9 47
MID 987 74.6 37
MCY 981 79.1 3
NWC 978 78.5 32
AVL 977 79.4 7
WIG 954 74.8 -29
FUL 912 82.4 5
BIR 906 78.9 52
CHA 892 78.8 34
WBA 881 81.2 -33
POR 845 84.0 -44
SUN 713 86.0 -25
A fantastic month for West Ham, good recoveries for Everton and Birmingham. Much of Chelsea's decline comes from their defeat to Barcelona, but it's Arsenal's decline that worries their fans most - Saturday's 1:0 defeat to Brum was a 31-point upset. Manchester Buccaneers won the League Cup, defeating Wigan 4:0, and are certain of UEFA Cup football - the place will almost certainly go to the side finishing 6th in the league.
Scottish Division A
CEL 1045 89.0 28
RAN 920 79.0 12
HRT 879 81.5 - 9
ABD 826 79.2 36
HBS 804 80.8 16
KLM 798 81.4 52
ICT 782 79.7 -19
MTW 756 80.1 -39
DDU 690 81.4 - 8
DNF 657 81.9 34
FAL 618 83.2 -25
LVG 535 81.7 -69
Kilmarnock the big winners, but both Celtic and Rangers improve on their positions, while Hearts lost one game too many to make progress.
On to Division II:
REA 928 76.0 -26
LEE 863 78.7 24
PNE 853 79.0 10
WAT 842 79.1 58
CPL 841 75.5 -17
SFU 815 78.0 -20
WLV 804 79.7 - 3
IPS 763 79.4 65
CDF 744 79.2 10
COV 736 78.2 38
SOT 715 78.5 -12
NOR 706 79.2 -24
LUT 701 81.5 27
LEI 697 78.3 - 6
QPR 691 81.3 -13
DER 681 78.8 -43
PLY 673 79.2 48
STK 658 80.8 0
MIL 654 78.3 -42
BNL 648 80.3 -39
HUL 644 80.8 1
SFW 610 81.6 -30
CRW 563 81.8 - 4
BRI 562 79.7 -71
Two defeats for Reading is a record, and Sheffield Utd are going off the boil - some of that will be a reaction to their 39-point defeat by QPR last week-end. Watford and Ipswich have made good progress this month, but Brighton are in trouble, ranked below long-term anchors Hull.
Spain's Primera Division
BAR 1282 77.9 -30
VAL 1211 84.2 51
RMD 1140 78.3 -19
OSA 1112 88.1 -59
ZAR 1106 82.2 24
AMD 1092 87.1 147
VIL 1063 81.8 -25
CVG 1062 89.3 33
DEP 1045 81.1 -29
SEV 1045 82.1 14
SAN 1006 92.3 -64
BET 988 80.3 8
ESP 981 79.3 -25
MAL 965 89.3 44
GET 960 88.8 -21
ABL 953 85.0 26
ALA 948 94.2 48
SOC 942 89.7 -68
MGA 839 93.4 -58
CAD 805 87.1 -152
Barcelona lose ground, they lost three games early in the month. Valencia and the soaraway Athletico Madrid are doing well, while early-season form side Osasuna can't sustain their pace, hurt by a loss to Deportivo Sunday (35 points). Real Madrid also lost ground, losing to Malaga (42). Seville suffered a more severe reverse, trounced 5:0 at Espanyol (35).
Other European leagues:
Austria
GRA 879 123.7 32
AWI 828 142.6 0
RAP 726 124.6 -32
Belgium
LIE 851 134.4 9
BRU 798 102.2 -21
AND 770 122.4 0
BEV 494 133.5 -36
Bulgaria
LSF 842 125.0 88
LIT 813 129.2 -53
CSS 718 149.3 0
Switzerland
BAS 956 122.4 45
THU 705 119.8 67
GRZ 697 145.3 0
Czechia
TEP 893 156.0 0
SLP 888 125.2 17
PRG 672 124.2 0
Germany
BAY 1140 100.7 -3
SNV 1135 102.9 48
STT 1069 99.8 10
WER 1043 102.8 47
HAM 999 111.7 -94
HER 878 110.8 -60
AAA 837 184.6 0
BYL 837 118.2 -30
Denmark
BRO 778 152.1 0
France
LYN 1161 87.7 -56
BDX 1104 100.1 43
MAR 1057 92.0 16
LIL 1002 90.7 40
PSG 991 104.3 16
AUX 958 96.7 -36
MON 912 88.9 -32
LEN 904 97.6 -18
SCX 902 105.8 53
STR 834 103.2 10
REN 785 104.7 79
Much of Lyon's drop comes from their 4:1 defeat by Rennes on Saturday - it's a 50-point upset.
Georgia
TIB 493 180.2 0
Greece
OLY 1070 105.6 30
AEK 973 115.9 98
PAN 887 110.5 9
PAO 750 121.6 -71
AIG 735 125.3 30
ASS 659 169.3 0
PIO 522 128.4 -12
Croatia
DZA 780 200.0 0
Hungary
FER 825 200.0 0
Israel
MTA 705 179.1 0
MPT 589 143.8 0
Italy
JVE 1150 88.9 -48
ACM 1146 90.1 -49
INT 1085 88.0 -8
ROM 1020 90.5 115
PAL 951 98.8 23
SAM 907 108.9 30
UDI 898 92.8 -76
LAZ 855 98.8 -14
PER 854 200.0 0
PAR 804 111.0 8
Netherlands
PSV 1109 100.9 7
FEY 1001 124.0 27
AZA 950 98.3 -63
AJX 947 95.7 97
UTR 888 123.7 93
HEE 838 102.2 -14
Norway
ROS 841 113.8 -54
TRO 752 141.9 0
VIK 749 140.9 0
VRG 664 147.0 0
Poland
AMI 996 186.2 0
GRO 732 186.3 0
Portugal
SLS 986 131.6 0
BEN 919 114.5 3
PTO 917 123.2 0
GUI 728 134.1 77
Romania
RBU 1026 135.5 96
STE 903 115.3 -24
DIB 761 156.8 0
Russia
ZSP 1016 121.5 62
LOK 949 137.5 -38
CSK 937 116.7 0
Sweden
HAL 652 154.8 0
Slovakia
ART 727 127.6 -93
Turkey
BES 1022 122.7 14
FEN 956 115.1 38
GEN 793 147.4 -85
Ukraine
KYV 1029 152.4 0
SHA 929 115.6 -32
DNI 803 130.9 0
Serbia and Montenegro
RSB 798 148.0 0
PBG 796 161.5 0
All of which leaves Europe's First XI looking like this:
1. Barcelona 1282
2. Chelsea 1223
3. Valencia 1211
4. Lyon 1161
5. Juventus 1150
6. AC Milan 1146
7. Bayern Munich 1140
8. Real Madrid 1140
9. Schalke 04 1135
10. Liverpool 1135
11. Manchester B 1116
Three more defeats in the betting leaves the month's final total as +2.10 / 43.5. We saw better. Here's the league-by-league breakdown:
E1: -11.35 / 46.5
E2: +7.25 / 16.5
SA: +20.45 / 34.5
Spain: +6.6 / 18
Cups: -3.30 / 7.5
Europe: -11.85 / 34.5
TOTAL: +7.80 / 157.5
When's the next International Week? Don't know. I'll declare the month closed with the matches of 26 March, and end the betting season on 23 April.
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