Mon 02 Jan 2006
Update 02012006
A couple of upsets in the week-end programme - Charlton's 2:0 win at West Ham ranked 36 on the upset-o-meter, while Portsmouth's 1:0 defeat of Fulham was worth 30. The leading clubs all won, which should surprise no-one.
More upsets in Division II, where Sheffield W beat Burnley 2:1 (38 points), Cardiff overcame Southampton by the same score (30), and Reading were held 2:2 at Derby (16 points). Reading still haven't been defeated since the opening day of the season.
In Scotland, Celtic left it late, coming from 2:0 down to beat Hearts 3:2 in injury time. Their lead is now seven points.
Last time's betting was more miss than hit, Villa took a draw (+0.70), but West Ham and Bolton both lost (-1.50 each). That's -2.30 on the day, -6.95 on the month.
The fourth full programme in the English League within a week is mostly played to-day, with a league programme in France, and the achtelfinals of Spain's Copa later in the week. The formal bets are:
Paris St Germain - Sochaux (5.75 / 3.20)
Crystal Palace - Leicester (5.70 / 3.40)
Birmingham - Wigan (2.70 / 3.10)
Also of interest: Sunderland at Fulham, Portsmouth at Blackburn, Preston at Norwich, Strasbourg against Lyon, and Osasuna at Deportivo.
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Fri 06 Jan 2006
Update 060106
Not many surprises in the fourth round of the festive programme - Birmingham overcame Wigan 2:0 (38 on the Upset-o-meter), but nothing else in the top flight tickled the surprises. Arsenal and Man B's draw left Chelsea 13 points clear. In Division II, Coventry picked up a 2:0 win over promotion-chasing Wolves (35), Millwall beat Derby 2:1 (29), and Sheffield Weds downed Crewe 3:0 (28), leaving Crewe in some trouble. Division III is now led by Southend, Division IV by Wycombe - even though they finished on the wrong end of a 5:4 defeat by Macclesfield - and Accrington Stanley have opened up a three-point gap atop Division V. Amazingly, no Division IV side has put together a run of four wins, five draws, or six defeats. It's a very close division. Anyone reckon Millwall can make the play-offs from here?
A few surprises in the Copa del Rei last 16, first leg - Seville won 3:2 at Cadiz (38); Deportivo beat high-flying Osasuna 3:0 (34); and Espanyol beat Getafe 1:0 (29). Return legs are in two weeks, I understand.
The betting was another disaster - Wigan and Leicester both lost, as did Sochaux. It's the FA and Scottish Cups this week-end - and the French Cup - and (in theory) the English sides will never have a smaller RD. The three to pick are:
West Brom - Reading (3.10 / 3.20). Reading are underdogs with the bookies.
Palermo - Juventus (5.20 / 3.20). The Italian league's back, which traditionally causes some upsets.
Hearts - Kilmarnock (5.60 / 3.70). Hearts will be on a downer after their heart-breaking defeat by Celtic, and Killie should be good for a draw.
Those of you expecting a result from the NCAAball tournament, please hold on until to-morrow, by which time I'll have been able to crunch the numbers...
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Sat 07 Jan 2006
NCAAball - The Final Score
So, the bowl season came to an end on Thursday morning. Here's the list of upsets not involving the top ten:
Michigan - Nebraska 28:32 (31)
Georgia Tech - Utah 10:38 (35)
South Carolina - Missouri 31:38 (28)
Fresnostate - Tulsa 24:31 (30)
Texastech - Alabama 10:13 (28)
Results involving the top ten were:
BCS4: Notredame - #10 Ohiostate 20:34
#9 Oregon - Oklahoma 14:17 (29)
BCS2: #8 Westvirginia - #6 Georgia 38:35 (27)
Wisconsin - #5 Auburn 24:10 (34)
#4 LSU - #7 Miamiflorida 40:03
Louisville - #3 Virginiatech 24:35
BCS1: #1 Southerncalifornia - #2 Texas 38:41 (29)
BCS3 was a non-upset win for Pennstate over Floridastate.
Of the 28 bowls, Glicko saw nine as upset wins, with three significant at more than 30 upset-o-meter points that indicates a full RD difference has been overcome. The average probability of the winners in each game was 54.1%; the maximum possible was 61.8%.
Now, the moment you've been waiting for, the ranking of all Division I teams, from first down to 119th. "Last week" is the week of 27 November, as only a few sides played on the final week of the regular season.
LW TW CONF Ratng RD Idle
===========================================================
2 1 TEXAS BT 1537 108.5 0 Texas
1 2 SCALF PX 1526 130.8 0 Southern California
3 3 VTECH AC 1409 104.7 0 Virginia Tech
4 4 LSU SE 1397 120.0 0 LSU
8 5 WVIRG BE 1350 116.4 0 W Virginia
10 6 OHIST BX 1326 108.3 0 Ohio State
11 7 PENST BX 1321 114.9 0 Penn State
13 8 TCU MW 1312 120.4 0 TCU
9 9 GRGIA SE 1308 114.4 0 Georgia
6 10 MIAFL AC 1301 114.0 0 Miami-Florida
5 11 AUBRN SE 1300 121.8 0 Auburn
12 12 UCLA PX 1300 111.4 0 UCLA
18 13 ALABM SE 1272 116.7 0 Alabama
17 14 OKLAH BT 1269 108.1 0 Oklahoma
7 15 OREGN PX 1258 115.9 0 Oregon
19 16 BOSCL AC 1249 110.1 0 Boston College
14 17 TXSTC BT 1245 118.6 0 Texas Tech
23 18 WISCO BX 1245 110.5 0 Wisconsin
15 19 NOTDM XX 1239 111.6 0 Notre Dame
16 20 LSVLE BE 1235 118.7 0 Louisville
22 21 FLORD SE 1232 114.8 0 Florida
24 22 CALIF PX 1188 115.8 0 California
21 23 MICH BX 1175 106.7 0 Michigan
20 24 GEOTC AC 1172 111.4 0 Georgia Tech
27 25 CLEMS AC 1167 108.0 0 Clemson
28 26 ARZST PX 1161 108.2 0 Arizona State
31 27 NBRSK BT 1157 106.3 0 Nebraska
34 28 VIRGI AC 1146 113.5 0 Virginia
37 29 FLAST AC 1143 113.0 0 Florida State
25 30 IOWA BX 1136 109.0 0 Iowa
26 31 NWSTN BX 1130 106.5 0 Northwestern
39 32 KANSS BT 1114 118.1 0 Kansas
29 33 BSEST WA 1107 117.1 0 Boise State
44 34 UTAH MW 1105 109.9 0 Utah
36 35 NCARO AC 1104 112.7 2 N Carolina
40 36 STANF PX 1095 112.0 2 Stanford
33 37 IWAST BT 1092 110.6 0 Iowa State
46 38 MISRI BT 1092 105.5 0 Missouri
30 39 MINNS BX 1091 106.5 0 Minnesota
55 40 TULSA CU 1085 105.8 0 Tulsa
38 41 FRSST WA 1084 115.1 0 Fresno State
42 42 NCSTA AC 1083 113.3 0 NC State
32 43 SCARO SE 1074 108.4 0 S Carolina
35 44 COLRD BT 1073 104.4 0 Colorado
49 45 NEVDA WA 1073 106.4 0 Nevada
41 46 TEXAM BT 1068 113.3 2 Texas A&M
59 47 NAVY XX 1059 109.6 0 Navy
45 48 KNSST BT 1058 109.2 3 Kansas State
57 49 TOLED MA 1058 120.5 0 Toledo
47 50 MARYL AC 1057 110.0 2 Maryland
50 51 ORGST PX 1050 113.3 3 Oregon State
43 52 RUTGR BE 1033 111.8 0 Rutgers
52 53 PRDUE BX 1029 109.6 3 Purdue
53 54 NEWMX MW 1028 109.2 3 New Mexico
54 55 TENSE SE 1024 113.2 2 Tennessee
48 56 UTEP CU 1012 118.2 0 UTEP
51 57 COLST MW 1004 105.8 0 Colorado State
56 58 BYU MW 998 108.5 0 BYU
60 59 BAYLR BT 997 113.7 3 Baylor
61 60 MICST BX 997 108.2 3 Michigan State
67 61 MEMPH CU 988 108.5 0 Memphis
58 62 LSATC WA 980 109.3 1 Louisiana Tech
70 63 SMISS CU 971 110.4 0 S Miss
65 64 ARKNS SE 967 126.0 3 Arkansas
66 65 PITTS BE 966 115.7 2 Pittsburgh
68 66 WAKEF AC 961 116.1 4 Wake Forest
62 67 NILNS MA 945 109.5 1 N Illinois
69 68 CONNC BE 939 117.6 1 Connecticut
64 69 SDGST MW 928 108.0 1 San Diego State
72 70 OKLST BT 926 122.1 2 Oklahoma State
63 71 UCF CU 922 105.0 0 UCF
73 72 SMU CU 913 111.0 2 SMU
74 73 WYOMG MW 913 106.4 3 Wyoming
75 74 ARIZN PX 911 131.5 2 Arizona
76 75 BOWLG MA 909 121.4 2 Bowling Green
71 76 SFLOR BE 902 116.9 0 S Florida
77 77 WASST PX 901 125.2 4 Washington State
89 78 HAWII WA 899 111.9 1 Hawaii
78 79 VNDRB SE 899 119.6 3 Vanderbilt
79 80 MIOHO MA 892 113.5 2 Miami-Ohio
80 81 UAB CU 890 114.3 2 UAB
81 82 CINCI BE 889 119.0 2 Cincinnati
82 83 AIRFC MW 885 109.5 3 Air Force
83 84 CMICH MA 881 109.2 3 Central Mich
84 85 ECARL CU 880 107.0 2 E Carolina
87 86 INDAN BX 864 114.6 3 Indiana
88 87 LOMON SB 863 113.8 2 Louisiana Monroe
85 88 HOUST CU 858 112.8 0 Houston
90 89 WMICH MA 854 117.5 2 West Mich
91 90 LOLAF SB 852 114.7 2 Louisiana Lafayette
92 91 AKRON MA 850 104.5 0 Akron
86 92 ARMY XX 848 119.4 1 Army
93 93 WASNG PX 824 131.2 4 Washington
94 94 ILLNS BX 812 119.2 3 Illinois
97 95 BALLS MA 794 120.4 3 Ball State
98 96 MARSL CU 786 116.5 2 Marshall
96 97 ARKST SB 785 112.3 0 Arkansas State
99 98 KNTCY SE 784 128.1 2 Kentucky
100 99 MSPST SE 783 121.8 2 Mississippi State
101 100 UTHST WA 763 115.7 2 Utah State
95 101 MDTEN SB 761 118.7 1 Middle Tennessee
102 102 MISIP SE 760 117.4 2 Mississippi
103 103 SYRAC BE 758 118.5 4 Syracuse
104 104 OHIO MA 748 112.6 2 Ohio U
111 105 FLINT SB 743 119.2 1 Florida International
105 106 UNLV MW 743 114.8 3 UNLV
106 107 TROY SB 725 117.3 4 Troy
107 108 EMICH MA 720 109.8 3 East Mich
108 109 NTEXS SB 717 121.5 3 North Texas
109 110 SNJST WA 706 122.7 2 San Jose State
110 111 DUKE AC 702 136.9 5 Duke
112 112 IDAHO WA 687 114.4 2 Idaho
113 113 RICE CU 673 114.8 2 Rice
114 114 TULNE CU 660 113.9 2 Tulane
115 115 FLATL SB 639 117.3 2 Florida Atlantic
116 116 TEMPL XX 622 132.1 3 Temple
117 117 NMXST WA 621 114.2 2 New Mexico State
118 118 BUFFL MA 523 124.1 3 Buffalo
119 119 KENTS MA 482 121.6 2 Kent State
Now, who is the best at this NCAAball lark? Well, I could construct a long and complicated formula to work it out from theory, but I would also like to present the answer to-day, and not at the start of next season. So, instead, I've run a Monte Carlo simulation.
By assumption, a team's real strength will be Normally distributed, with probability boundaries defined by the Glicko rating (the mean) and ratings deviation (the standard deviation). So, it's reasonably trivial to use random numbers to model each side's position on the Normal curve, then work out the corresponding rating, and give the Top Team award to the highest-scoring team. Repeat this process 1000 times, and we've got some approximate probabilities for how likely each side is to be the real champion. Here are the results:
# 1 TEXAS - 35.9%
# 2 SCALF - 36.3%
# 3 VTECH - 7.2%
# 4 LSU - 6.3%
# 5 WVIRG - 3.3%
# 6 OHIST - 1.1%
# 7 PENST - 0.7%
# 8 TCU - 1.7%
# 9 GRGIA - 0.7%
#10 MIAFL - 1.0%
#11 AUBRN - 1.3%
#12 UCLA - 0.9%
#13 ALABM - 0.7%
#14 OKLAH - 0.1%
#15 OREGN - 0.5%
#16 BOSCL - 0.3%
#17 TXSTC - 0.6%
#18 WISCO - 0.5%
#19 NOTDM - 0.3%
#20 LSVLE - 0.4%
A single trial resulted in a win for #22 CALIF and #44 COLRD.
From this evidence, it's clear that there's nothing to choose between the season-long records of Texas and Scalf, a fact reflected in their close-run game earlier in the week. Though Texas had a ranking higher by 11 points, Scalf's RD was almost 20% larger, indicating a far greater uncertainty. Similarly, TCU's relatively large uncertainty lifts them above two other sides with slightly greater RDs.
One can repeat this process as far down the list as one wants. As one would expect, there's a clear break between the top two and third place, then between fourth and fifth. There's almost a clear break just outside the top 20, then another clear break between 51st and 52nd, the group below consists of many sides split by precious little, and I suspect that their ordering owes more to statistical noise than anything else. Another break between 66th and 67th, Arizona's high RD (caused by beating two good sides, and falling to many lesser ones) ensures they climb above their bare rating. There's another clear division at position 94, and there's not really enough information to rate the bottom two sides.
Top tier
#1 - TEXAS, SCALF (tie)
#3 - VTECH
#4 - LSU
#5 - WVIRG
#6 - TCU
#7 - PENST
#8 - OHIST
#9 - MIAFL
#10- AUBRN
#11 - UCLA , GRGIA, ALABM, OKLAH, OREGN
#16 - TXSTC, WISCO, BOSCL, LSVLE, NOTDM
Second tier
#21 - FLORD, CALIF, MICH , IOWA , CLEMS
#26 - GEOTC, NBRSK, ARZST, NWSTN, VIRGI
#31 - FLAST, KANSS, STANF, IWAST, NCSTA
#36 - NCARO, BSEST, FRSST, UTAH , TEXAM
#41 - TOLED, MINNS, NEVDA, MISRI, TULSA
#46 - SCARO, NAVY , COLRD, ORGST, KNSST
#51 - MARYL,
Third tier
#52 - RUTGR, UTEP , TENSE, PRDUE
#56 - ARKNS, COLST, NEWMX, LSATC, BAYLR
#61 - MICST, PITTS, BYU , WAKEF, MEMPH
#66 - SMISS,
Fourth tier
#67 - ARIZN, WASST, CONNC, NILNS
#71 - SDGST, BOWLG, OKLST, VNDRB, WYOMG
#76 - UCF , SMU , SFLOR, CINCI, MIOHO
#81 - UAB , CMICH, HAWII, ECARL, AIRFC
#86 - LOLAF, WMICH, INDAN, LOMON, ARMY
#91 - WASNG, AKRON, HOUST,
Fifth tier
#94 - KNTCY, ILLNS
#96 - MSPST, SYRAC, MARSL, MISIP, BALLS
#101- FLINT, UTHST, ARKST, MDTEN, OHIO
#106- UNLV , DUKE , NTEXS, TROY , SNJST
#111- EMICH, RICE , IDAHO, FLATL, TULNE
#116- TEMPL, NMXST, BUFFL, KENTS
Now, these groups could easily form the basis for a balanced schedule next year. Let teams arrange two matches themselves (say, on two of the May Day, Thanksgiving, and Let The Shopping Begin holidays in September, October, and November.) Let teams specify two other bye weeks. Then attempt to draw up a schedule that minimises a function based on total distance travelled and number of tier boundaries crossed. For these purposes, we may wish to disregard the boundary between Second and Third, and the one between Third and Fourth, but still penalise a Second -v- Fourth match. Fifth tier sides might well play some matches against Division II sides.
In turn, that would allow a consistent ranking of sides from about half-way through the season, and present a possible play-off format. After the November holiday, organise a play-off match between 1st and 5th, 2nd and 6th, 3rd and 7th, 4th and 8th. (Change if a pair has played each other.) Two highest-ranked winners play off for the national title, the other two winners play off for third place overall. The four losers drop into the general bowl pool. Obviously, we'll need to re-draw the tiers after each season.
NCAAball coverage will resume next September, with the new season.
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Tue 10 Jan 2006
Update 100106
Cup week-end in England and Scotland, and here's the list of upsets in increasing Upset-o-meter order:
Derby - Burnley 2:1 (29). Division II strugglers put out Division II mid-tablers.
Millwall - Everton 1:1 (15). Slowly-improving side comes from behind to draw with fast-improving side from the division below.
Cadiz - Getafe 1:0 (31). Spain's league programme is also capable of throwing the odd wobbly.
Dunfermline - Clydebank 3:4 (37). Struggling Division A side beaten by journeymen from Division C.
St Mirren - Motherwell 3:0 (42). Bodes very well for the Saints' promotion to Division A next year.
Alloa - Livingston 1:1 (21). The system might be under-rating Alloa, and over-rating Livingston, but this is a great result.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle - Ayr 1:1 (22). Oh, we remember when the Nessies regularly caused upsets. Now they're on the receiving end.
Leicester - Tottenham 3:2 (48). "For those of you still interested, the draw is at 1.30" - Simon Mayo, professional Spurs fan.
Sheffield United - Colchester 1:2 (50). United want to be in Division I next year, and rested their A-team. They were put out by the C-team.
Torquay - Birmingham 0:0 (25). A result that suited both sides.
Stoke - Tamworth 0:0 (26). The Division II side were lucky to escape with a draw against the Division V side.
Fulham - Leyton Orient 1:2 (53). The biggest win of the week-end, Fulham fall to their neighbours with a dismal performance.
Clyde - Celtic 2:1 (53). The biggest upset since the invention of Irn Bru.
Nuneaton - Middlesbrough 1:1 (30). Boro are struggling in Division I. Nuneaton are favoured for promotion from Division VI (N). With the money from this replay, they could probably buy the rest of the division.
Burton - Manchester Buccaneers 0:0 (31). Turfed out of Europe by Two-Goal Lil, the Bucs now have to play an extra game against the side almost at the bottom of Division V. A great day for Staffordshire sides.
Not a great day for the betting - Reading put out their B-team, which drew 1:1 at West Brom, the other sides lost. We're now -13.85 down on the month, and -1.55 over the year. Nasty.
This mid-week: league matches in France, cups in Italy, Spain, and the second cup in England. A slight change of emphasis in the betting. I'm now going to pick the three matches that just exceed the betting threshold, rather than the three that offer the best value. This week, that's:
Athletico Madrid - Zaragoza (3.45/3.10)
Valencia - Villarreal (4.20/3.20)
(3.65/3.20) Blackburn - Manchester B
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Fri 13 Jan 2006
Tue 17 Jan 2006
In brief 170106
Let's start with the betting, for that's now finished for the month. Cadiz won 2:0 at Malaga (+3.30), Aberdeen beat Hibs 2:1 (+4.10), and Seville lost 4:2 to Real Madrid (-1.50). So that's +5.90 on the week-end, so the month's loss is exactly halved - it's -5.90 on 40.50 bet.
Some upsets last week-end - in Division I, Man C beat Man U 3:1 (38), and West Brom beat Wigan (or "Twiggy" as the BBC News subtitlers call the team) 2:1 (35). Fulham put the only goal past Newcastle (33). Surprises in Division II, also, as Brighton beat Leeds 2:1 (44), QPR downed Southampton 1:0 (31), and Leicester fell to Sheffield Wednesday 2:1 (34). In Spain, Santiago beat Villarreal 1:0 (31), Alavez downed Deportivo 2:0 (43). The biggest upset came in Italy's late match, where AC Milan fell 1:0 to Roma (48).
Lower down the leagues, Southend are the new leaders in Division III, after Swansea suffered a defeat. Accrington Stanley lead Division V by six points. Division VI (N) is a three-way battle between Stafford, cup-heroes Nuneaton, and Northwich Victoria; Weymouth have a clear advantage in the south. Division VII (S) will be between Salisbury and Chippenham; North Ferriby could be on for their second straight promotion in VII (N); and Braintree have the lead of VII (SE). In the various Division VIIIs, Boreham Wood, Ashford, Mossley, and Tonbridge appear to have the upper hands.
Next time: all the tables you could possibly want. And some you probably couldn't care less about.
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Fri 20 Jan 2006
The monthly tables 200106
In Division I:
CHE 1296 86.1 40
LIV 1177 78.3 43
ANL 1101 77.2 -57
MUN 1089 78.4 -59
BLK 1053 77.0 70
BOL 1047 79.0 -31
TOT 1018 81.6 -23
WIG 983 76.0 -5
MCY 978 81.7 -21
AVL 970 79.4 71
MID 950 77.4 -59
WHM 947 79.7 -38
NWC 946 80.9 0
EVE 942 79.8 -10
WBA 914 80.2 28
FUL 907 81.0 -31
POR 889 82.3 6
CHA 858 80.6 37
BIR 854 81.8 -6
SUN 738 87.3 -27
Surprising to see Arsenal so high - their league form has been spotty, but their European run has been immacculate. MUN are marked down for that, and for their draw against Burton Albion. Blackburn and Villa have had excellent months with almost no fanfare. Sunderland, I'm afraid, look doomed already.
Division II:
REA 954 77.3 30
CPL 858 76.9 35
PNE 843 80.0 35
LEE 839 77.7 -10
SFU 835 76.3 -22
WLV 807 77.1 7
WAT 784 77.9 -10
CDF 734 77.4 1
NOR 730 78.3 32
SOT 727 77.9 -61
DER 724 77.4 15
QPR 704 78.2 20
LEI 703 78.3 -55
COV 698 78.6 14
IPS 698 78.8 -3
MIL 696 77.0 8
BNL 687 76.7 -54
LUT 674 81.1 -72
STK 658 79.7 -47
HUL 643 80.1 -21
SFW 640 80.8 31
BRI 633 78.5 -11
PLY 625 79.4 23
CRW 567 79.0 -49
Reading lead, all others follow. Southampton and Leicester have had bad months, and Luton are losing all the ground from their strong start. No-one's had a stand-out good month.
Scottish Division A:
CEL 1017 90.6 -21
RAN 908 80.8 45
HRT 888 83.4 -6
ICT 801 82.5 31
MTW 795 81.7 -22
ABD 790 80.9 10
HBS 788 81.9 -29
KLM 746 81.9 4
DDU 698 81.8 -34
FAL 643 88.2 -87
DNF 623 83.8 -9
LVG 604 82.7 -46
Celtic are down only because they lost to a bunch of amateurs in the cup. Motherwell and Hibs are sinking, Inverness very quietly up to fourth place, and Rangers clearly into second.
Spanish Primera Division:
BAR 1312 83.3 31
OSA 1171 92.9 -31
VAL 1160 88.6 48
RMD 1159 83.5 25
VIL 1088 83.5 -46
ZAR 1082 92.4 76
DEP 1074 86.5 -27
SAN 1070 102.7 142
SEV 1031 82.8 -51
CVG 1029 94.8 -50
SOC 1010 95.8 -17
ESP 1006 86.7 52
GET 981 95.7 -76
BET 980 83.0 6
CAD 957 96.7 34
AMD 945 94.0 -41
ABL 927 88.5 -14
MAL 921 96.7 -34
ALA 900 102.0 2
MGA 897 103.0 -70
A cracking month for Santander, eclipsing great times for Zaragoza and Espanyol. Valencia's defeat to Deportivo in the Cup last night has cost them second place.
And the rest of Europe where there have been matches:
LIE 842 147.3 LIEGE 55 0.4
BRU 819 112.1 BRUGGE 0 0.0
AND 770 115.3 ANDERLECHT -31 -0.3
BEV 530 147.9 BEVEREN 0 0.0
LIT 866 138.1 LITEKS LOVECH 14 0.1
LSF 754 132.2 LEVSKI SOFIA -87 -0.6
CSS 718 143.5 CSKA SOFIA -25 -0.2
BAS 911 128.4 BASEL -57 -0.4
GRZ 697 139.4 GRASSHOPPERS ZURICH -15 -0.1
THU 638 124.8 THUN 0 0.0
TEP 893 150.5 TEPLICE 0 0.0
SLP 871 132.4 SLAVIA PRAGUE -24 -0.1
PRG 672 117.2 SPARTA PRAGUE 0 0.0
BAY 1143 103.4 BAYERN MUNICH -4 0.0
HAM 1093 120.1 HAMBURG 50 0.4
SNV 1087 104.1 SCHALKE 04 -28 -0.3
STT 1059 106.6 STUTTGART 60 0.6
WER 996 102.2 WERDER BREMEN 7 0.1
HER 938 123.1 HERTHA BERLIN -33 -0.2
BYL 867 121.7 BAYER LEVERKUSEN 0 0.0
BRO 778 146.5 BRONDBY -46 -0.3
LYN 1217 92.4 LYON -21 -0.2
BDX 1061 106.3 BORDEAUX 56 0.5
MAR 1041 90.7 MARSEILLE 35 0.3
AUX 994 99.0 AUXERRE -64 -0.6
PSG 975 104.5 PARIS ST GERMAIN 40 0.4
LIL 962 92.4 LILLE 35 0.4
MON 944 92.1 MONACO -17 -0.2
LEN 922 116.0 LENS 27 0.2
SCX 849 104.9 SOCHAUX -51 -0.5
STR 824 112.8 STRASBOURG -18 -0.1
REN 706 120.4 RENNES -74 -0.5
TIB 493 175.4 DINAMO TIBLISI -19 -0.1
OLY 1040 107.3 OLYMPIAKOS 20 0.2
PAN 878 107.1 PANATHANAIKOS -5 0.0
AEK 875 120.3 AEK ATHENS 0 0.0
PAO 821 128.2 PAOK SALONIKA 36 0.3
AIG 705 131.6 AIGAELIO 4 0.0
ASS 659 164.2 ARIS SALONIKA 0 0.0
PIO 534 128.9 PANIONIOS -28 -0.2
MTA 705 174.4 MACCABI TEL-AVIV -33 -0.2
MPT 589 137.9 MACCABI PETAH-TIKVA 4 0.0
JVE 1198 96.1 JUVENTUS -8 -0.1
ACM 1195 98.2 AC MILAN -82 -0.9
INT 1093 95.3 INTER MILAN 31 0.3
UDI 974 111.8 UDINESE 25 0.2
PAL 928 119.4 PALERMO 86 0.6
ROM 905 102.4 ROMA 67 0.6
SAM 877 114.1 SAMPDORIA -83 -0.6
LAZ 869 115.8 LAZIO 22 0.2
PER 854 197.1 PERUGIA 0 0.0
PAR 796 111.7 PARMA -15 -0.1
PSV 1102 102.6 PSV EINDHOVEN -40 -0.4
AZA 1013 105.6 AZ ALKMAAR -27 -0.2
FEY 974 123.7 FEYENOORD 127 1.0
HEE 852 105.6 HEERENVEEN 61 0.6
AJX 850 101.0 AJAX -30 -0.3
UTR 795 136.2 UTRECHT 0 0.0
SLS 986 125.0 SPORTING LISBON 0 0.0
PTO 917 116.2 PORTO 14 0.1
BEN 916 118.1 BENFICA 0 0.0
GUI 651 133.9 GUIMARES -34 -0.2
RBU 930 147.6 RAPID BUCHAREST -51 -0.3
STE 927 118.5 STEAUA BUCHAREST 1 0.0
DIB 761 151.3 DINAMO BUCHAREST -24 -0.1
LOK 987 137.5 LOKOMOTIV MOSCOW 0 0.0
ZSP 954 127.2 ZENIT ST PETERSBURG 0 0.0
CSK 937 109.3 CSKA MOSCOW 7 0.1
BES 1008 128.6 BESTIKTAS 13 0.1
FEN 918 118.6 FENERBACHE 0 0.0
GEN 878 165.1 GENCENBIRGILI 0 0.0
RSB 798 142.2 RED STAR BELGRADE 6 0.0
PBG 796 156.2 PARTISAN BELGRADE 0 0.0
Two defeats in a month for AC Milan is almost unprecedented, and leaves Europe's First XI looking like this:
BAR 1312
CHE 1296
LYN 1217
JVE 1198
ACM 1195
LIV 1177
OSA 1171
VAL 1160
RMD 1159
BAY 1143
PSV 1102
ANL 1101
And the betting. This month ended on -5.90 on 40.5 staked. Here's the league-by-league breakdown for the year:
E1 -13.55/34.5
E2 + 8.85/ 9
S1 +12.90/28.5
Sp + 6.60/15
Cp - 0.90/ 3
Eu - 6.70/19.5
===============
+ 7.20/109.5
This week-end:
Burnley - Preston (2.70 / 3.00)
(2.60 / 2.80) Udinese - Roma
(4.20 / 3.30) Everton - Arsenal
Aston Villa and Osasuna also represent value.
linkpage | ResultsTables
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Tue 24 Jan 2006
Update 240106
When the most important goal of the week-end is the one that Stockport score in injury time against Rushden and Diamonds, keeping both sides in the relegation hunt, you know it's been something of a dull time.
Not that there haven't been some surprises. Sunderland notched up only their second win of the season, 1:0 at West Brom. It won't be enough to keep them up, but it might take the Sandwellers down with them. Sunderland's win was worth 39 on the upset-o-meter; just one point behind came Everton's 1:0 victory over Arsenal. Manchester B's win over Liverpool rated 33, while the relegation six-pointer ended decisively, Birmingham beating Portsmouth 5:0. And Chelsea were held to a 1:1 draw by Charlton, the first time Chelsea have dropped points at home, and the second time these sides have drawn this season - Charlton won a penalty shoot-out in the third round of the League Cup.
In Scotland, Hearts fell further off the pace, losing 1:0 at Kilmarnock (a 37-point upset). Division II's stars were Coventry, beating local rivals Derby 6:1. Lyon could only draw, as could AC Milan, though Europe's best side - Barcelona - won at a canter. Other surprises:
zar-amd 0:2 35
udi-rom 1:4 30
san-sev 2:3 31
vil-osa 2:1 32
The betting: Burnley - Preston 0:2 (+2.20)
Udinese - Roma 1:4 (-1.50)
Everton - Arsenal 1:0 (+3.70)
A great start to the new month, now +4.40 on 4.50 bet. Just two bets this mid-week:
Plymouth - Leicester (3.30 / 3.10)
(4.20 / 3.20) Zaragoza - Barcelona
linkpage | BettingResults
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Fri 27 Jan 2006
That Euro 2008 Draw In Full
The League Cup final in England will feature Manchester Buccaneers and Wigan. The Bucs overcame Blackburn 2:1 on Wednesday, a 3:2 aggregate win. Wigan lost 1:0 at Arsenal in regular time, making the match level at 1:1 on aggregate. Both sides scored in extra time, and under the League Cup rules, Wigan progress on away goals. It's worth noting that under UEFA rules, the match would have gone to penalties, as away goals in extra time don't count double.
Some surprises in the Italian and Spanish cups, which are at the quarter-final stage. Inter Milan were held to a 1:1 draw at struggling Lazio (upset rating of 15). An almost-empty Stadio della Alpe saw Juventus beaten 3:2 by Rome (42). But the big shock came in Spain, where Barcelona suffered their first defeat in 18 games, losing 4:2 to Zaragoza (44).
The betting - Leicester's relegation trouble deepened with a 1:0 loss at Plymouth (-1.50), but Zaragoza's win was worth +3.70. So +2.20 this mid-week, and +8.10 on 7.50 bet so far this month. Excellent! Here's three to keep up the winning run:
(3.00 / 3.20) Coventry - Middlesbrough
Valencia - Zaragoza (4.95 / 3.30)
Manchester-city - Wigan (3.35 / 3.20)
And now, live-blogging Eurosport 2's coverage of the Euro 08 draw. This one's going to be in Austria and Switzerland, and the host nations have been spared the qualifying ordeal. That leaves 50 teams, to be put into six groups of seven, and one mind-bogglingly large group of eight teams. Top two from each group go through - there are no November play-offs. Defending champions Greece go in pot 1, the others are in order - if everything were in order, Greece would be in pot 2. If it all goes wrong, blame Hertzog and Chapuisat, because they made the draw.
The draw graphics, for those who care about such things, are rather similar to Eurovision 05, all green backgrounds and swirliness. First out are Kazakhstan - they go into the eight-team group A. Faroes in group B, Malta in group C, then San Marino, Andorra, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg in groups D to G, respectively. The first visitors to Kazakhstan will be Azerbaijan. Mmm, that's very European.
Pot six, including Northern Ireland and Cyprus. Which of these countries put a man into the Aussie Open tennis finals, eh? Into pot A - Armenia, who will face Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and there's a loud murmur in the hall. Georgia into B, Moldova C, Cyprus in D, Macedonia in E, Northern Ireland in F - they'll not fancy their chances there, and Belarus in G.
Pot five contains Wales and the dangerous Lithuanians. A - Finland. "It's not entirely derbies" says the host. B - Lithuania - a good draw so far. C - Hungary. D - Wales, along with Cyprus and San Marino. E - Estonia, joining Macedonia and Andorra, full of banana-skins. F - Iceland - not what N Ireland wanted. G - Albania.
Pot four has Republic of Ireland, Scotland, and Latvia. A - Belgium. B - Scotland, with Lithuania, Georgia, Faroes. Scotland and the Faroes again! C - Bosnia-Herzegovina. D - Republic of Ireland join Wales, Cyprus, San Marino. E - Israel join what's shaping up to be Group E Of Death. F - Latvia with N Ireland. G - Slovenia.
Pot three includes Russia, Ukraine, and Denmark. A - Serbia-Montenegro. B - Ukraine will play Scotland. Possible. C - Norway. D - Wales and the Republic get Slovakia, not a bad draw. E Of Death - Russia. F - Denmark will play N Ireland there. G - Bulgaria.
Pot two features a lot of good sides. A - Poland have the group of tedium. B - Italy. Against Scotland. Again! C - Turkey. D - Germany play Wales and RoI. E Of Death - Croatia. Maybe not of death. F - Spain get N Ireland. G - Romania, in what's shaping up to be a very Balkan group.
Pot one has the remaining seven sides. You didn't want to be first out, Portugal. B - France. With Italy. And Ukraine. C - Greece. With Turkey. D - Czechia with Germany. E - England. F - Sweden, with Denmark and Spain. G - Netherlands.
So, that draw in full:
Group A - Portugal, Poland, Serbia-Montenegro, Belgium, Finland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan. Who'll bet against the Serbs?
Group B Of Death - France, Italy, Ukraine, Scotland, Lithuania, Georgia, Faroe Islands. Well, that just about wraps it up for Scotland's chances.
Group C - Greece, Turkey, Norway, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Moldova, Malta. Bosnia could well play king-makers again.
Group D - Czechia, Germany, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, Wales, Cyprus, San Marino. Four into two won't go.
Group E - England, Croatia, Russia, Israel, Estonia, Macedonia, Andorra. Could have been far worse for England, especially as many of the opponents play around the same level.
Group F - Sweden, Spain, Denmark, Latvia, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Liechtenstein. If you're looking for an upset, here's your spot.
Group G of Balkans - Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, Albania, Belarus, Luxembourg. An easy passage for the Dutch.
The ten million qualifying matches begin in August.
linkpage | BettingEuropean
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Tue 31 Jan 2006
Short update
Very short shrift to-day. The upset-o-meter:
brentford-sunderland 2:1 (43)
colchester-derby 3:1 (43)
osasuna-betis 0:2 (39)
west ham-blackburn 4:2 (33)
alaves-sociedad 3:1 (33)
ajax-utrecht 1:4 (32)
athletico madrid-deportivo 3:2 (32)
athletic bilbao-getafe 1:0 (31)
seville-villarreal 2:0 (31)
everton-chelsea 1:1 (19)
ac milan-sampdoria 1:1 (19)
coventry-middlesbrough 1:1 (15)
The betting: Coventry and Middlesbrough drew (+0.60), Valencia and Zaragoza drew (+0.65), and Man City beat Wigan (-1.50). So -0.25 on the week-end.
This mid-week sees a full league programme in England I and II, and cup action on most of the continent.
Blackburn - Manchester B (3.60 / 3.10)
Heerenveen - Ajax (2.90 / 3.20)
Cardiff - Millwall (4.60 / 3.40)
linkpage | BettingResults
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