The Snow In The Summer or So-So

Weather

Sun 29 Oct 2006

Weather in week 43

The dominant south-westerly airflow briefly eased round to a more north-westerly direction early in the week, clearing away some unusually fetid air. The milder airflow resumed with a particularly sticky Thursday night.

23 Mo sun                  7/12
24 Tu sun                  8/14, 2.0
25 We rain                 4/12,14.5
26 Th cloud to sun        14/16
27 Fr sunny spells         6/12
28 Sa cloud                9/17
29 Su sun                  9/15

101.5mm of rain so far this month, almost double the month's average. Degree-hearing days are required, these are calculated as the difference between the average (minimum + maximum /2) temperature and 10°C. For instance, Friday's average is 9°C, so it contributes 1 to the week's total of 3½ degree heating days. We were still on 0 last year, but 2004 had already racked up 17½. The totals - 2005/6 - generally perceived as a cold winter - had 808, the mild 2004/5 still had 677½

The south-westerly winds persist into the middle part of the week, but cold air is set to topple down as high pressure builds over Iceland. It may be a fairly short cold snap, as we're set to see warmer air towards the week-end, but that's a best-guess prediction, so do wrap up.

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posted 29 Oct 2006, 19.15 +0000

Sun 05 Nov 2006

Weather in week 44

High pressure settled over the UK on Wednesday, and it's been surprisingly cold since, with some sharp overnight frosts.

30 Mo cloud to sun        12/16
31 Tu sunny spells, wind  10/13
01 We sun                  1/ 8
02 Th sun                 -2/ 8
03 Fr sun                 -3/10
04 Sa sun                 -2/12
05 Su sun to cloud         5/12

October finished with 101.5mm of rain, almost double the month's average. November's average is 62.5mm. We're up to 29 degree heating days already, compared with 4½/808, and 19½/677½ in the past two winters

Next week will begin with fog, so if you're going out to-night, do wrap up. As the high pressure slips away on to the continent, we will get south-westerly winds, already over Scotland, spreading south to all parts by Tuesday. That will raise the temperatures substantially, and introduce the threat of showers to all parts. By the end of next week, it's likely that matters will have quietened down somewhat, leaving calm but warmer weather.

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posted 05 Nov 2006, 19.26 +0000

Sun 12 Nov 2006

Weather in week 45

Warmer than the last week, though that includes some fairly cold nights. The expected showers were slightly late in arriving, as the high pressure stuck around longer than expected.

06 Mo sun, fog late        3/12
07 Tu cloud                6/10
08 We mist                 6/14
09 Th cloud clearing       6/10, 2.0
10 Fr cloud, rain late     2/10, 1.5
11 Sa sunny spells         6/11, 4.5
12 Su sunny spells         7/12

8mm of the 62.5mm average for November. 12 degree heating days, the winter's total now 41, compared with 11½/808, and 37½/677½ in the past two winters

A string of depressions will pass in the vicinity of the UK, bringing westerly winds to all parts. Showers will always be possible, though the heaviest rain won't arrive until mid-week. Wednesday could be quite warm in the south, but a cold front will sweep that away by the end of Thursday. Take a brolly, and do wrap up.

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posted 12 Nov 2006, 19.42 +0000

Sun 19 Nov 2006

Weather in week 46

13 Mo wind                10/14, 1.0
14 Tu cloud, showers      10/12, 1.5
15 We showers pm          11/14, 2.5
16 Th showers, cold       10/10, 4.5
17 Fr showers              2/10, 7.5
18 Sa sun                  2/ 8
19 Su sun to cloud         0/ 9

25mm of the 62.5mm average for November. 14½ degree heating days, the winter's total now 55½, compared with 46½/808, and 62½/677½ in the past two winters

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posted 19 Nov 2006, 20.49 +0000

Sun 26 Nov 2006

Weather in week 47

It's been a week of weather systems passing through from the Atlantic. One on Monday brought some wind, but little rain; the wetness came from the Wednesday system. Friday night looked set to provide damaging winds, but the small margins of error ensured that this system passed without much wind, though with a lot of rain. Details are, as ever, for the twenty-four hours to 6pm local time.

20 Mo rain o/n, sun        8/10, 2.0
21 Tu sun to cloud         4/ 7, 0.5
22 We cloud, rain pm       5/ 8, 3.0
23 Th sun, showers        11/11,10.5
24 Fr cloud, showers       4/12, 2.0
25 Sa rain o/n, sunny     10/10,19.5
26 Su sun to cloud         4/11, 0.5

We've now had 63mm of rain, just over the 62.5mm average for November. 13½ degree heating days this week, the winter's total now 69, compared with 94½/808, and 72½/677½ in the past two winters. After a cold snap at the beginning of November, this has turned out to be a milder month than last year.

South-westerly winds, and a continuation of the unsettled weather, is the order of next week, though detail is particularly sketchy. The dominant feature will be a stable area of high pressure over continental Europe, and a succession of depressions rolling in from the Atlantic. One particularly deep low will bounce off the anticyclone and will stall over the Atlantic off Iceland, but not before it's brought strong winds from the SW to-morrow. It's possible that the high pressure will advance towards the UK around the middle of the week; this will bring a return of strong winds in the west while introducing much calmer weather to the south-east. Another depression may merge into the one off Iceland around Thursday, and this will bring fresh impetus to the winds: it's possible that there will be some particularly damaging winds in the north and west around Thursday next week. The pressure will equalise quite quickly, and Friday may well be much quieter. Much can change in such volatile situations, so do check against professional forecasters, and do wrap up.

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posted 26 Nov 2006, 20.03 +0000

Sun 03 Dec 2006

Weather in week 48

Southerly wind and cloud ensured that this was a remarkably warm week. Most of the threatened storms avoided this part of the world, though there were some strong winds in the early hours of Sunday.

27 Mo cloud, showers      11/13, 1.5
28 Tu cloud                8/12, 1.5
29 We cloud                4/11
30 Th cloud                8/10
01 Fr cloud                8/12, 3.0
02 Sa sun to cloud         8/10
03 Su storm o/n, wind      7/10, 6.5

November finished with 66mm of rain, slightly over the 62.5mm monthly average. December's typical score is 65.5mm. 6 degree heating days this week, the winter's total now 75, compared with 133½/808, and 106½/677½ in the past two winters.

Wet and windy for all parts; Wednesday may be quieter than most days, and Friday could well be under the influence of a strong northerly wind.

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posted 03 Dec 2006, 19.42 +0000

Sun 10 Dec 2006

Weather in week 49

Southerly winds continued, with particularly strong bursts on Monday evening and Thursday morning. A vigorous front crossed around 8am on Thursday, resulting in 11mm of rain falling here in just over an hour; the front reached north London three hours later, and caused a localised tornado.

04 Mo sun to cloud         6/12, 1.0
05 Tu wind, showers       11/13, 9.5
06 We cloud                8/ 9
07 Th rain o/n, showers    6/10,12.5
08 Fr sunny spells         6/ 8
09 Sa sun and showers      4/ 7
10 Su sun to rain          1/ 9, 5.0

Sunday's low was the coldest since the morning of 20 November, which dipped to freezing point. December has had 39.5mm of its average 62.5mm of rain. 17 degree heating days this week, the winter's total now 92, compared with 172/808, and 128/677½ in the past two winters.

Changeable for all parts, but it may well become more settled towards the south-east as high pressure builds from the continent; this will bring less rain and somewhat colder air.

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posted 10 Dec 2006, 19.40 +0000

Sun 17 Dec 2006

Weather in week 50

Another week of strong southerly winds ensured well-above average temperatures, and significant rainfall. A front passed at 7pm on Friday, causing temperatures at Birmingham airport to drop from 11°C at 18.50 to 6°C at 19.20. Since then, it's been noticeably colder.

11 Mo rain o/n, drizzle    5/12, 9.5
12 Tu clear, rain pm       3/ 8,11.0
13 We cloud, wind late     8/12
14 Th wind, cloud         11/12
15 Fr cloud               10/11
16 Sa rain o/n, sun        2/ 7,10.0
17 Su sun                  3/ 8

December has already had above average rainfall - 70mm, compared to the usual 62.5mm. It's the fourth wetter-than-average month in a row. 17 degree heating days this week, the winter's total now 109, compared with 202/808, and 160/677½ in the past two winters.

High pressure will persist over the UK until mid-week, bringing calm and somewhat drier conditions than we've been used to recently. As the high retreats to the continent from Thursday, wind and rain will spread from the north and west; quite how far this weather spreads remains to be seen, so do wrap up.

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posted 17 Dec 2006, 19.22 +0000

Sun 24 Dec 2006

Weather in week 51

The cold weather persisted all week, with fog becoming a particular problem from Tuesday evening until Saturday daybreak. Heathrow airport was operating on reduced capacity for three days, causing one airline to cancel domestic flights, and one wag to write to a national newspaper, How nice to see the climate wrecking flights for a change, rather than, as usually happens, flights wrecking the climate.

18 Mo drizzle, fog         4/ 7, 1.0
19 Tu cloud to fog         4/ 6
20 We fog, sun            -1/ 2
21 Th fog, sun            -4/ 1
22 Fr mist                -4/ 3
23 Sa cloud                0/ 2
24 Su cloud                2/ 6

Rainfall notches up to 71mm, the month's average 62.5mm. Degree heating days soar by 56 this week, the winter's total now 165, compared with 228½/808, and 197½/677½ in the past two winters.

Though it's moved away to the continent, the high pressure will persist until mid-week, ensuring mostly cloudy conditions for most parts. A front will pass through during Thursday, bringing a brief sunny interlude before showers and much warmer weather, so do wrap up.

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posted 24 Dec 2006, 19.58 +0000

Sun 31 Dec 2006

Weather in week 52

Cool and still weather persisted until Wednesday afternoon, when much milder weather pushed in from the south-west. Very heavy rain on Saturday afternoon caused five football matches to be abandoned up and down the various English divisions.

25 Mo cloud                4/ 5
26 Tu cloud                3/ 4
27 We cloud                3/ 6
28 Th rain o/n, sun        6/ 9, 4.5
29 Fr rain early, cloud    5/11, 2.5
30 Sa heavy rain           9/ 9,21.0
31 Su cloud, showers       4/11, 8.5

107.5mm of rain this month, well above the average of 62.5mm. A "mere" 23½ degree heating days this week, the winter's total now 188½, compared with 282½/808, and 226½/677½ in the past two winters.

Expect showers at any time, but it will be mild - very few if any night frosts outside the Highlands. Strong westerly winds will continue until Wednesday, Thursday in the eastern parts, and the final blast will be from the north, so do wrap up.

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posted 31 Dec 2006, 20.22 +0000

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