The Snow In The Summer or So-So

The Snow In The Summer or So-So

Sat 20 May 2006

Moderately dull by-election in prospect

The death has been announced of Eric Forth, MP for Bromley and Chislehurst, and chief proponent of Making Life Difficult for the Government. His old constituency is the section between and to the east of Lewisham and Beckenham on the London Connections map. It's moderately middle-class suburbia, so ultra-safe C territory - Mr Forth had just over 51% of the vote last time, with Labour pipping the LD for second. Even in 1997, he had 46% of the share.

The main interest in the inevitable by-election will be a) to find which Conservative A-lister gets the nod, and b) whether the LD can pinch enough votes to push Labour into third. The LD or a predecessor party was second in the Ravensbourne seat from Feb 1974 to 1992; the Chiselhurst part favoured Labour until 79, but not again until 1992. If Labour falls to third, it's indication that the party has lost the confidence of the North Kent marginals - the likes of Dartford, Gillingham, Thanet, and Medway that act as bell-weathers for Labour's middle-class appeal. Expect the by-election sometime in July, before the recess.

Blair's values aren't British, argues A. C. Grayling.

MPs attack absurdly high train fares. We only want to travel on the train, not buy it.

And finally, Iain Dale - formerly of Oneword's Planet Politics show - has a new book out. New Labour, New Sleaze.

posted 20 May 2006, 16.09 +0100

Politics

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