It would be interesting to contrast to-night's election results against those from nine years after Mrs Thatcher came to power. Regrettably, the BBC's INFAX archive doesn't carry full details of DISTRICT VOTE 88, the main results programme for the elections in 1988. We do have a summary of what was shown on the following night's Nine O'Clock News.
Var s Labour celebrate their win at Southampton - Graphics - s' people celeb at unidentified place. Mcs votes being counted at unidentified place. - graphics INTV mcs Dr John CUNNINGHAM MP, Labour are delighted with the results INTV mcs Peter BROOKE MP, Conservative Party Chmn was a thoroughly satisfactory result.Gains made by them & Lab were at the expense of the SLD & minor parties. INTV mcs David STEEL MP, SLD Joint Ldr, are down on their total-but pleased considering the 'painful & difficult year' the party has had. S' results are read out at Bradford-Conservative win. John COLE REP TO CAM in studio. NB: 6.00pm version kept at 127/88/13ec dur 02m45s Different results being announced (Bath & Derby) Also incls CFX. NB: 1.00pm version kept at 127/88/14EC dur 02m15s Includes SLD supporters in pub in Stockport & recent progress at Bradford. Also incls CFX.
According to various records of council control, a number of authorities moved from No Overall Control to being ruled by Labour or Conservative, with relatively few going the other way. This is consistent with the 1984 Alliance vote collapsing following the botched merger into the Social and Liberal Democrats, leaving a rump Esdipi in a few areas.
Here's my brief thoughts for to-night's results, expressed in terms of Labour losses:
Lost seats kept below 100, only a few councils lost -- Recovery from the general election; keep a close eye on London and the SE, where Labour did particularly badly last year.
Losing around 200 seats -- Roughly on a par with 2004; councils will fall. This was the expectation going into the campaign.
Losing around 300 seats -- A psychological barrier: Labour will now be at or below 25%, and having its worst performance for a generation. Blair might well survive, but he would have to sacrifice Prescott and/or Clarke, and perhaps name his day.
Losing around 400 seats, and councils outside London -- this is the pattern of votes to cost Labour its overall majority at Westminster. Public calls for Blair's head by the week-end.
Losing 500 and more seats -- it's a complete Labour wipe-out, on the scale of the 1968 landslide that let John Major onto Lambeth council. Blair would surely have to go.
The Tories would be looking to take perhaps 150 seats, and some councils in London. More than 250 gains, or 40% of the national vote, would be a great result and enough to form a Westminster majority. The Lib Dems would also be looking for three-figure gains; anything over 150 would be very good for Campbell. Gaining more seats than the Tories would be fantastic, but very unlikely.
Readers in the West Midlands will want to be listening to Ed Doolan's Election Night Special on Radio WM from 10pm - it's the best guide to everything happening. Thanks to the extended voting hours this year, first results probably won't be in before 11, but we'll have most of them in by midnight-thirty. And you'll be able to check off the gains and losses against the West Midlands Voting Guide, where all the marginals and safe seats are indicated. Alternatively, the complete guide to all Metropolitan Councils is here, and The Times' Election Map will be indispensible.
posted 04 May 2006, 20.11 +0100
Politics
