OK, it's not quite the same as Peter Snow's Amazing Three-Way Swingometer, and it's not as detailed as my massive DAVIDBUTLER spreadsheet (the one that got the marginal Croydon Central to within ten votes, though more by luck than judgement). But it's the best we'll get for the forthcoming Canadian election.

Enter, stage white, the Hill and Knowlton Predict-or. Think the Liberals will lose ground to the NDP? Reckon the PQ will gain from the CP? Know your CRAP from Brian Mulrooney? This will be the plaything for you.

Sadly, I'm not going to be able to be in Toronto for the election. This is the closest I'll get.

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posted 28 Nov 2005, 20.04 +0000

While discussing Venezuela's purchase of arms from Spain, a Corporatist party spokesloon said the following.

"He came to power through, sadly, a rigged election, and he has managed to dismantle all the democratic institutions of his country."

-- Frank Gaffney, Centre for Social Policy, speaking on BBC's World's The World programme.

Nice to know that he's so clearly against the illegal regime in Occupied Washington.

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posted 28 Nov 2005, 20.20 +0000

Over the past couple of weeks, there have been a couple of leaks of documents that damage the UK government's case to occupy Iraq. Two weeks ago came the "Iraq in the Medium-Term" document leaked to the Sunset Times, discussing the current situation as of April 2004. Last week came the Mirror's "Let's Bomb al-Jazeera" memo, in which a Corporatist spokestwit who can't even open a door suggested bombing the Quatari news organisation al-Jazeera.

Now, it seems that some people have managed to get these two documents confused, and think that there might only have been a single memo. Certainly that's the impression Blairwatch got when reading the BBC a couple of weeks ago, and for good reason. "The document involved - the Foreign Office's Iraq in the Medium Term..." chuntered Auntie. This was, of course, before the Mirror's revelation.

Blairwatch spoke to Peter Kilfoyle, who confirmed that the leak to the Sunset Times, like so many apparent leaks to the Murdoch press, was officially sanctioned. Therefore, if the Northampton Two are being charged over "Medium Term", then the "Bomb al-Jazeera" memo is not sub judice at all, though presumably still covered by the D-notice handed down last week. Either that, or the BBC is wrong.

The whole thing is thoroughly confusing. It's probably designed that way, to befuddle journalists under pressure, and anyone who doesn't have time to think it through. I certainly don't profess to understand this mess, and hope that Boris Johnson - or someone - will deliver the original memoranda (or memorandum) and settle it once and for all.

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posted 29 Nov 2005, 20.58 +0000

Faisalabad: Pakistan (462 and 268/9d) drew with England (446 and 164/6)

The second test ended in a draw, but both sides had a shout at winning. England dismissed the Pakistan top order relatively cheaply, but the middle order (led by centurion ul-Haq) ensured the task would be stiff. In response, England bated with cool heads, and conceded a small first-innngs lead.

English hopes of squaring the series were boosted late on the fourth day, when four Pakistan wickets fell in quick succession. Ul-Haq remained doggedly at the crease, and Pakistan declared once he had completed his century, setting England a target of 287 in just over two sessions.

Then Pakistan had the scent of a win, as England'stop four batsmen fell for nine runs, including three ducks. Pietersen and Hoggard steadied the ship, and Jones made a cautious 43 to steer the game home. A draw, on baance, is the right result for a game where neither side capitalised on their advantages.

Adelaide: Australia (428 and 182/3) beat West Indies (405 and 204) by seven wickets

The match will go down in history as the one where Brian Lara finally became the highest Test run-scorer in history, but also one where the other ten members of his team proved their frailty. Lara's first innings score of 226 was almost 200 runs higher than any other player. The crucial innings was the visitors' second, where Lara fell for 17, and the rest of the team put on almost exactly as many runs. Only useful knocks of 60 from Sarwan and Bravo set the Aussies any sort of target. Still, Australia managed to get a target of around 200, which is far more than England have been doing lately, and perhaps shows the weakness of the West Indies.

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posted 29 Nov 2005, 21.12 +0000

A tremendous piece from Andrew Rilstone, in which he dissects the myth over Susan's non-appearance in The Last Battle. Of interest to Narnia fans everywhere.

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posted 01 Dec 2005, 19.54 +0000

This week, I've been watching...

* Have I Got News For You? (BBC-2, 10pm Monday) Boris Johnson is always a tremendously funny presenter, but the bit with him being unable to spin the Newswheel was fabulous beyond belief.

* ...And June Whitfield (BBC-7, all last week) The national treasure read out her own autobiography, complete with impressions of Norma Major, and with due attention to Terry and June.

* Quirks and Quarks (CBC Radio 1) featured a thoroughly entertaining piece on why spaghetti snaps into three or four pieces, and never into two. It doesn't quite answer the question in layman's terms, but they have a jolly good try (MP3 link, 5 MB)

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posted 01 Dec 2005, 20.18 +0000

There comes a point, perhaps a year after a government has been elected for the second time, when it becomes unreasonable for the previous government to be blamed for everything that goes wrong. Five years is long enough to completely re-structure even the most recalcitrant system.

Which makes it all the more depressing to hear Mister Tony Blair blame the Major administration for all the faults in the Child Support Agency. The public body, which collects money from absent parents and gives it out to support parents with custody, was set up in 1993, reformed in 1994, reformed again in 1996, and again in 1998 and 2000.

After eight and a half years in power, the Labour government has had enough time to investigate the problem, close down the CSA, and start up a replacement. And to investigate again, close down the replacement, and start up another new agency. It's no good Labour blaming the last government for its own inaction.

Similarly, there's more than a slight case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted in this week's report on pension provision. Adair Turner's report is unusual in public life, as it has come from a root-and-branch evaluation of the current system, and careful consideration of the various options. It's also a very bold report, as it requires the government to make sacrifices to-day for sustainable comfort to-morrow. This is generally believed to be electorally unpopular.

Yet the situation need not have been this bad. As far back as the 1997 election, the Conservatives were proposing a commission to examine reforms of the pensions system, and to defuse the ticking demographic time-bomb. Labour sat on its hands, hoping that Something would turn up, well into the second parliament of its reign. The report was further delayed, so that it emerged after, rather than before, this year's general election.

Indeed, Something did turn up, but this Something would only make the situation worse. In his first budget, just nine weeks after assuming office, finance minister Gordon Brown announced that pensions would no longer be able to claim tax credits on dividend payments. In effect, that reduced the growth rate of pension funds by something like 0.5% per annum, and considerably reduced the incentive for people to save for their own old age. A system that was going to be in balance until 2030 now looks like it could fall over in 2025 - long after Gordon Brown has left the scene, but soon enough for the finger of fault to find its home on his shoulders.

Turner's proposals appear harsh, but there is a clear underlying logic. He's advocating a phased move from a pay-as-you-go system - where pensions are mostly funded from to-day's taxpayers - into a genuine deferred income system, where pensions are funded by the pensioners' savings. I would expect nothing less from an independent thinker - Mr Turner is a former chairman of the CBI. He's not a high court judge, the sort of person whose reports are always what the government wants to hear.

Perhaps the biggest sea-change will be in the attitude of employers. Too many people of around pensionable age want to carry on working, but are unable to find people to take them on. Mandatory retirement would be a major social evil.

But there's another example. Labour has completely failed to come up with any cogent policy to develop renewable energy sources. They could have invested in wave power, wind power, hot air power, rain power. Instead, Labour has decided to prioritise expensive and probably illegal wars to secure oil reserves, and to live off the short-term proceeds of the Dash For Gas.

In 1992, with his government already reeling from its ERM debacle, John Major and Michael Heseltine cooked up the Dash For Gas. Almost all of Britain's coal pits would close, and the gap in power generation would be filled by cheaper gas. Even at the time, independent observers noted that this could only be a short-term solution, and there would be an energy gap within fifteen to twenty years.

Labour came to power four-and-a-half years later with a clear obligation. They needed to find a replacement for gas, for construction of energy plants is a complex task, and needs to be planned well in advance. But, because this government has consistently been shit-scared of even a single day's poor headlines, Labour sat on its hands, hoping that Something would turn up, before it had to make the difficult choices. Even so, they've pushed those difficult choices until after the third election.

This time, Something did not turn up. Labour's one remaining hope is to build more nuclear power stations, and hope that Something turns up in the twenty or thirty years they'll last. Never mind that this will leave a tremendous clean-up job for generations to come, Mr Brown will have long left office.

There is an alternative, to reduce the nation's seemingly insatiable demand for electricity. But this needs to start with industry, and with a hefty tax on electricity use. This isn't going to happen so long as Britain is ruled by a bunch of quivering, cowardly custards.

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posted 03 Dec 2005, 12.01 +0000

3rd Test, Lahore. Pakistan (636/8d) beat England (288 and 248) by an innings and 100 runs.

If England are going to make a serious claim to be the best cricket side in the world, they'll have to do a lot better than this. I remarked after the first Test that Pakistan's lower order was weak; this time, England's wasn't so much weak as feebly useless.

Batting first, Trescothick and Vaughan put on 101 for the first wicket, and Collingwood was annoyed to get himself out for 96. He and Pietersen had got England out of a sticky patch after Another Bell Failure. But once Pie-face fell, the lower order failed dismally, just 36 runs came from the last six batsmen. 288 felt a hundred runs or so under par for a simple pitch.

Pakistan made light work of batting - 223 for Yousef, 154 for Akmal, an interrupted 97 for Inzamam-ul-Haq ensured that the home side could declare before lunch on the fourth day with victory well within their grasp.

Still, England's top order resisted gamely, and Bell and Collingwood soaked up the pressure for 60 overs, and took the score past 200. Maybe Pakistan would have to bat again, even if they got all the wickets. But no. Once Collingwood (80) was prised away from the crease, Pie-face fell third ball, Flintoff first, Bell went for a valiant 92, and the last seven batsmen fell for just 31. Udal made 25 of them, with four ducks lined up beneath the scores.

If the first Test was England's for the taking, and the second was heading towards a draw, this was England's to save. With a little more application, and a little more match practice, they could have come back 1:0 ahead, instead of 2:0 down. The ECB's insane schedule, with just one first-class match before the opening test, was woefully inadequate - there should have been at least two, and preferably three, warm-up games.

In Kolkota, there's meant to be a match between India and Sri Lanka. There's been no play after two days, thanks to heavy rain.

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posted 03 Dec 2005, 16.00 +0000

What a quiet week on the continent, with only Madonna making way for the Star Academy contestants in France raising any sort of excitement.

 20 16 Son of Dork - Ticket out of Loserville
 19 11 Amel Bent - Ne retiens pas tes larnes
*18 NE Mattafix - Big city life
 17 10 Céline Dion - Je ne vous oublier pas
 16 re DHT - Listen to your heart
*15 re Katie Melua - Nine million bicycles
 14  9 K T Tunstall - Suddenly I see
 13 19 Black Eyed Peas - My humps
*12 NE Xavier Naidoo - Dieser weg
*11 NE Star Academy V - Santiano
 10  8 Pussycat Dolls - Don't you
* 9 re Tokio Hotel - Durch den monsun
* 8 15 Kent - The Härta & smärta ep
* 7  7 Arctic Monkeys - I bet you look good on the dancefloor
  6  6 Tatu - All about us
  5  4 Depeche Mode - Precious
  4  5 Bert Bills - Tripping
  3  3 James Blunt - You're beautiful
* 2  2 Madonna - Hung up
* 1  1 Sugababes - Push the button

In the UK, the Pussycat Dolls have the biggest selling single, ahead of Oasis. There is decent stuff in the top 10, Kelly Clarkson's Because of you at position 7, and Babyshambles' Albion is one place lower. Rhianna and Sean Paul just miss the top ten, while the Futureheads' Area lands at a perfectly respectable 18. Scraping into the bottom end are Blink 182, Jamie Cullum, David Gray, Anthony and the Johnsons, and the top 40 debut for Sigur Ros, Hoppipolla. Wonder how they'll fare on Radio Onelistener's top 40?

Bert Bills retakes the best selling album from Madge. Pestside, G4, and Ill Divo hold down positions three to five, which is surely more Crap Associated With Twats From The X Factor than anyone can stand. James Blunt moves up to 8, the Darkness can only make 9, and the Pussys are back up to 10. Obscure LA rockers The Quireboys have a new, eponymous album, and it's in at 21 ... wha, there's some bunch of kids wearing sheets calling themselves the Choirboys and confusing us all? Typical.

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posted 04 Dec 2005, 14.31 +0000

The draw for the Third Round Proper of the FA Cup contained a few surprises. For the second year running, no two sides in Division I have been drawn against each other. How unlikely is that?

To work this out, we must ignore the distinctions we make between Division I sides, and treat them all as the same. Think of them as 20 red balls in the bag. With two sides in each game, we can also treat A versus B as being equal to B versus A.

Now, all this simplification means we can cancel out a lot of complicating factors, and just concentrate on whether there is a Division I side in each match or not. There are 32 matches in each round, and 20 Division I sides, so the number of ways of keeping all 20 apart is C(32,20). That's a big number - it works out to 32!/(20!12!) = 225,792,840.

Now suppose that there's exactly one match between top-flight sides. All the various permutation terms cancel each other out, and the number of possible draws with a single Division I side is C(32,19) = 347,373,600

We can construct this table, showing the number of matches involving Division I sides, and the number of draws in which this happens:

So, all we've then got to do is work out the probability of a draw from the possible total of 4,015,266,630. That shows there's a 0.056 chance of any individual Third Round draw producing no all-Division I clashes. As the draws are independent events, the chance of two consecutive draws producing no top-flight matches is (0.056)² = 0.003162. That's three and a bit chances in a thousand - not something we'd expect to see at all often, and insignificant enough to cause some embarrassment at the FA.

Certainly, those of my friends who have been sniping at Endemol for perceived bias in their Deal or No Deal show are barking up the wrong tree - the FA Cup Draw is a much more attractive target.

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posted 04 Dec 2005, 18.43 +0000

High pressure and cold weather hung around until Wednesday, since when it's been cloudy and damp.

28 Mo cloud, snow          0/ 3,  0.8
29 Tu cloud               -1/ 3,  2.7
30 We cloud, fog          -2/ 5,  3.6
01 Th cloud, showers       5/ 9,  4.9
02 Fr rain                 6/ 8, 10.0
03 Sa rain                 6/10, 13.6
04 Su cloud, showers       3/ 7,  0.5

39 degree heating days this week takes winter's total to 133½. Last year's score: 106/677½.

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posted 04 Dec 2005, 18.46 +0000

older writing... write to