Bumphwatch

A hand-delivered personalised letter from Vicky Ford (Con, Northfield). I present it without comment on the content...

Dear Mr Weaver

Are you worried about your future? About your job, your home, your security?

I'm fed up with Blair and his friends' broken promises. Even here in Northfield the Labour MP used his personal relationship with JOhn Towers to win votes in the last election. They said "Richard (Burden) helped John Towers buy Rover" - Why did he take his eye off the ball? Why is he now spinning the media frenzy? Where are his plans for our future?

A million manufacturing jobs have gone under Labour, don't let him throw away a million more.

Last month Labour activists were convicted of massive fraud to rig votes in the last elections. When they even steal your vote how can you trust the to run the country?

I will fight for Northfield. I am committed to a timetable that provides 80 more police officers for Northfield and toughens sentences. I'll fight to control immigration and police our ports and airports. As a doctor's wife I believe everyone should have a right to free medical care, and no-one should have to die as a result of an infection they catch in hospital. We will clean up Birmingham's hospitals.

Our children should be able to walk into schools free from the anti social mob protected by political correctness. School discipline will return with the Conservative.

If elected, Northfield will have a new, different kind of MP. Less talk, more action. It's your choice on May 5^th - reward Blair's MP for his 13 years of wasted promises or a Conservative MP who will fight for Northfield.

I was chatting to the parents last night, and came to a bit of a sad realisation. Their seat is thoroughly safe, as in the winning candidate has previously secured the backing of an absolute majority of the electorate - more people backed him than voted for someone else or stayed at home. Yet this successful candidate, a complete shoo-in at the ballot box, has sent three leaflets. His three opponents have sent five leaflets between them.

Compare and contrast with the bumphwatch here in Northfield. So far, I've had one leaflet from the token religious nutter, and three or four since the beginning of the year from the Conservatives. I've heard nothing from the extreme left-wing candidate, I've heard nothing from either of the extreme right-wing candidates, I've heard nothing from the Liberal Democrats, and I've heard nothing from the Labour candidate.

For all I've heard from him, Richard Burden (Lab, Northfield) may have been kidnapped by aliens from the planet Zarg, or have gone to spend the last month auditioning for the lead role in Harry Potter The Grown Up Sequel. Trevor S-word (LD, Northfield) has also been conspicuous by his absence; judging by the posters I saw going up the A38 to-day, he's not even bothered to print new placards for the lamp-standards. At least the Conservative candidate has made some effort, but she could have put much more pressure on Mr Burden. Northfield is the sort of seat that the Conservatives need to win in order to have an overall majority, and the crisis at Rover should have made it a lot easier to recruit disaffected voters.

Given the complete apathy displayed by the politicians round here, is it any wonder that no-one bothers to vote? The candidates are just going through the motions. They don't bother, so how can I convince other people that they should?

Onwards!

Viewers to BBC Parliament might have thought they had tuned into the CBBC channel this morning, as The Charlie and Mr Duk comedy quiz show was airing. Mr Greg Duk, the former director-general of the BBC, has fallen out with his bodyguard Alistair "Tiny" Campbell, and replaced him with Charlie "Charlie" Kennedy. Mr Duk expressed his dis-satisfaction with all aspects of the Labour policy, including tuition fees, the obsession with targets, and - oh yes - how no cabinet ministers had lost their jobs after misleading the electorate over Iraq.

The part of Nora The Scorer was played by Andrew Neil, who picked up Mr Duk's quotation from the Economist magazine: "Tony Blair, for all his flaws, remains the best centre-right option there is." "Haven't you heard of irony?" asked Nora Neil. Actually, if you take the time to read the Econ's opinion in full, they're not being ironic, just completely inconsistent.

"If voters feel calm about the economic prospects, they shouldn't... Spending will have to be cut by more than is now planned, or taxes will have to rise, quite sharply... The Tories plan to cut taxes, have promised to carry on with Labour's spending levels and its health-service reforms. That judgement may be right, but it offers no reason to switch to the Conservatives... We favour fluid migration, both on grounds of liberty and for practical economic reasons... The Liberal Democrats are more to our liberal taste; they were opposed to top-up fees for universities and the Ieaq war.

Ultimately, the Econ's vote is swung by Blair's support for Iraq - "we still think that to invade was the right thing given the uncertainty and given Iraq's record" and Howaerd's focus on immigration. The Econ ignores its own arguments that Blair's authoritarian streak (ID databases, regulation, the pensions raid) is A Bad Thing.

So, yet again, the end is not justified by the arguments. A perfect example of people backing Blair. (See also: the Universal Daily Registertab.)

Liarwatch

Spinning the back-door bollocks to-day is Gordon Prudence-Brown (Lab, credit control). Rather than swearing at an unsuspecting old lady in the supermarket, let us quote from het Graunida:

"There is as much veracity to the claim that voting for the Liberal Democrats will let the Tories through the back door as there was that Saddam Hussein was 45 minutes from killing us all."

A sad sign of the times: the BBC has met and talked with a man who applied for postal votes on behalf of nine of his neighbours, and had them sent to his home address. Of course, the BBC is sure (and so am I) that everything is completely above board, no-one has done anything against any rule, and the only possible conclusion one can draw is that the system is broken and needs repairing. Why didn't *John Prescott (Lab, vote-rigging) do anything about it? Couldn't be because he thought he could exploit it for party advantage, surely.

PEBwatch - Conservatives (5)

A repeat of PEB4 from last week.

Statpack

The Populus/UDR tracker poll puts the Conservatives at 29%, scarcely more than a margin-of-error clear of the Lib Dems.

DAVIDBUTLER
===========
              5U 10U  5A 10A   5av 10av
Lab 374/368 (382-375-367-360) (+ 3/+ 2)
Con 183/189 (175-181-190-197) (- 3/- 1)
LD   58/ 59 ( 58- 59- 58- 58) (nc /+ 1)

BETTING
=======
Lab 362.3  (+0.1)
Con 189.9  (-0.2)
LD   66.4  (+0.4)
SNP   5.23 (-.02)
PC    4.5  (n/c )
RES   0.35 (-0.1)
UIP   0.2  (-.05)

Turnout 61.1 (+0.1)

ODDS
====
Lab 1.04 (n/c  )
Con 27.0 (n/c  )
LD  360  (n/c  )
Hung 13.0 (n/c )

*Oliver Letwin (C, Dorset W) loses his seat in some models, just on a uniform national swing. *George Galloway (RESPECT, Bethnal Green and Bow) has drifted further out in his market, making *Oona King (Lab, Bethnal Green and Bow) a firm favourite to retain her seat. UIP have also sunk a little. Labour's still not as high as it was a week ago, but this is the first time the money has put the Tories below 190 seats.

For those of you who asked for them, graphs of the various charts are:

• Share of vote
• Labour seats
• Conservative seats
• Lib Dem seats
• %age turnout

permanent link
posted 02 May 2005, 19.44 +0100

Politics

Upcoming:

• "If one in ten Labour voters doesn't vote, we'll be returned by another landslide"
• "Many things are possible; a Conservative government is not one of them."
• "Shooting the foxes actually causes more suffering to the animals."

Bumphwatch

Isn't that just typical. Minutes - literally, minutes - after I fired off yesterday's report suggesting that *Richard Burden (Lab, suspicious Harry Potter look-a-likes) wasn't actually campaigning, his canvasser drops a leaflet through my door. It's too long to transcribe in full, but starts out with a reference to the Rover closure (not my fault, I've been working hard), then goes on about Labour's claimed achievements. "I'm not afraid to speak out when I think the government's got it wrong" is as much as he's prepared to say about his opposition to the Iraq adventure. More jobs, lower mortgages, more police, shorter hospital waiting times, money for pensioners, don't let the Tories ruin it.

"Please see over..." says the letter. Overleaf - a blank page!

But there's also a second sheet, in which Mr Burden uses both party catchphrases - "If you value shit, vote for shit" and "For war - not back" in two lines. He's claiming personal responsibility for the Northfield Relief Road, but doesn't claim responsibility for not promoting the re-introduction of trams down the road. If most of the traffic isn't going to go through Northfield or Selly Oak, there's no reason why trams can't run up the central reservation once more.

Mentions of *Mister Blair (Lab, leader): nil.
Percentage of space devoted to attacking the Conservatives: about 45%.
Headline on the tear-off-and-return slip: I'm Backing Richard. Oops.

Three other candidates had their bumph posted through the door with the mail to-day. Frank Sweeney (Worker's Revolutionary Party, Northfield) advocates occupying the Rover plant! Re-nationalising the railways! Troops out of Iraq now! Stopping the privatisation of education! Restoring the link between pensions and wages! No youth curfews or ASBOs! A workers government and socialism! Like his commitment to an open borders policy, but surely the first step to (say) an integrated transport system is sufficient meddling from government that the privateers are driven out. Oh, and I'll impose a tax on people who over-use the exclamation mark. Next!

Louise Houldey (Socialist Alternative, Northfield) merely wants the Longbridge plant to be nationalised, and for the directors' accounts to be frozen. The leaflet is the first one I've seen to feature the party leader (Dave Nellist, a former MP for bits of Coventry), and makes the valid point that trade unions have become too closely identified with New Labour. The slogan, "For the millions, not the millionaires" is catchy. Shame the policies are indistinguishable from the above, albeit without so many exclamation marks.

Finally, Gill Chant (UIP, Northfield). Withdrawal from the EU will allow council taxes to be halved (so even more central control of councils), £25 per week to each pensioner, letting the people decide their future in referendums (what, even if we actually want to remain part of Europe?), and stopping "unlimited EU immigration." Apparently, "Britain does not need to be in the EU to trade with it." We do need to be in to shape its direction.

Still heard nothing at all from the BNP, not even the name of the candidate. Nor any reason why Trevor S-Word for the Lib Dems wants my vote. Assuming he does want my vote...

Marginals Are Close Run Seats - Het Graunida

Over in the press, Het Grauniad has the world's slowest computer system. "If you are a Labour or Liberal Democrat supporter, would you vote tactically to stop a Conservative MP being elected in your area?" What about those of us who are Labour or Lib Dem supporters considering voting tactically to stop a Labour MP being elected?

If such a thing is possible, the preap's lead is even more hopeless. No clear winner in marginals. That's why they're marginals, you great twazzocks. The poll in Finchley suggests a slight LD-to-Con tactical vote, perhaps 5% of the anti-Labour vote, possibly no more.

Anyway, the serious press has mostly declared. The Torygraph is a Conservative Hold (this should surprise no-one capable of reading its mast-head, and quite a few people who can't.) The Universal Daily Registertab has gone for Labour, no surprise, as it's Labour's official organ these days. Het Grauniad is also backing Labour, as is the Financial Times. No comment yet from the Birmingham Post, or the Indytab. The Scotsman is leaning Conservative but probably won't endorse them explicitly, the Herald doesn't publish its comment online. Neither does the Yorkshire Post or Western Daily Press, but the latter does have evidence that fox control isn't a dead matter.

More foxes are dying in agony after being shot than when hunted by dogs, a new report revealed yesterday.

A group of independent scientists revealed that shooting the foxes - the main alternative to hunting with hounds - actually causes more suffering to the animals. The researchers found that, in as many as half the shootings, the fox did not die instantly, with many escaping badly wounded, dying three days later.

Lembit Opik, of the All Party Parliamentary Middle Way Group, which promoted the idea of licensed hunts instead of an outright ban, said yesterday: "This research proves conclusively that pro-ban groups were plain wrong."

PEBwatch - Labour (5)

Three months ago, Alan Sugar said on national television "I don't like liars, I don't like schmoozers, I don't like cheats." Someone, somewhere, is going to say how this is compatible with his appearance on to-night's PEB, in which he claimed that "if one in ten Labour voters doesn't vote, the Conservatives win." This claim is valid under the following strict conditions:

1) Only voters in Labour-held seats where the Conservatives are in second place don't vote.
2) Exactly enough voters to tip the balance stay at home, and no more.
3) Labour neither loses nor gains any votes in all other seats.
4) The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and all other parties remain exactly where they are.

Under these precise and wholly impossible circumstances, the Conservatives could, conceivably, win all the seats on their Con-Lab target list as far down as Luton North, yielding 179 seats from Labour, and a Conservative majority of 42. On a uniform national swing sufficient to give a sliver of a win in Luton N, (assuming all other parties kept their proportion of votes) the Conservatives would end up with 319 seats, just short of an overall majority. But that would cost Labour almost 28% of their votes, not 10%

But to return to Labour's Latest Lie, suppose Labour's vote dropped by 10% right across the country, and not just in their tightest marginals. Then, Mister Blair would be returned with an overall majority of precisely 100. "If one in ten Labour voters doesn't vote, we'll be returned by another landslide" doesn't have quite the same ring. It is truthful, though.

We must also object to the blatant fibs told about the Conservative's plans for the economy, health, and education - it's not worth repeating them here, they're so blatantly untrue as to be a waste of space.

This broadcast sums up Labour's complete lack of imagination, their complete lack of respect for the truth, and their complete lack of fitness to govern.

That's the end of PEBwatch, for that's the end of the PEBs. As is traditional, there are no campaign commercials on the last day before polling.

Statpack

Two of the three leading psephologists have declared. Bob Worcester, chairman of MORI, said "Many things are possible; a Conservative government is not one of them," before predicting a Labour majority of 70, give-or-take 20. John Curtice, professor at Strathclyde Uni, predicted a Labour majority of 70, give-or-take 15. David Butler, the professor at Oxford, has kept his thoughts close to his chest. He has no relation to the prediction below, a tribute to his pioneering work.

The final poll before polling day suggests a 3% swing from C to Lab. In Scotland, the Conservatives and Lib Dems have both picked up votes, and are tied for third place. Labour, as expected, retains the lead, and loses more votes than the SNP.

DAVIDBUTLER
===========
              5U 10U  5A 10A   5av 10av
Lab 383/382 (391-390-375-373) (+ 9/+14)
Con 174/176 (167-168-182-184) (- 9/-13)
LD   58/ 58 ( 58- 58- 58- 58) (nc /- 1)

BETTING
=======
Lab 364.2  (+1.9)
Con 189.2  (-0.7)
LD   65.9  (-0.5)
SNP   5.2  (-.03)
PC    4.4  (-0.1)
RES   0.35 (n/c )
UIP   0.2  (n/c )

Turnout 61.2 (-0.1)

ODDS
====
Lab 1.03 (-0.01)
Con 34.0 (+7.00)
LD  450  (+90.0)
Hung 12.0 (-1.0)

And finally. GB Jab. Needs Flash, but oh-so worth it.

permanent link
posted 03 May 2005, 20.16 +0100

Politics

Let's start with the And Finally. Peter Snow Election Night Bingo. Yes, you too could bet on which of these phrases Peter Snow will say first. The mind boggles.

With the campaign all over bar the voting, it's reasonable to look back and see who has come out of this campaign with credit, who has emerged with egg all over their faces, and who has done nothing of note. Roughly in order, from the smallest to largest:

Veritas The Robert Kilroy-Shaft vanity party launched its manifesto in a blaze of ennui, and apart from calling the editor of the Leicester Mercury a bigot, has done nothing of note since.

RESPECT The George Galloway vanity party is fighting in a few dozen seats, but is effectively a one-constituency outfit. They've brought more attention to the East End than anyone apart from Dirty Den.

British Nationalist Party Having one's leader arrested on the opening day of the campaign isn't normally a badge of honour, but then normal rules don't apply to the BNP. They've been carefully excluded from the media, and the only time I've seen a spokey was on their piss-poor PEB.

The nationalist parties At this point, I'd like to make a sensible comment on the performance of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SSP, and the various parties of Northern Ireland. However, my television company doesn't allow me to watch news from other nations, and the national media has woefully under-covered the debate outside of England. I learned more about the campaign from half-an-hour of the Healthcare Funding And Smoking debate in the Scottish Parliament (as seen on BBC Parliament last week-end) than anywhere else. That's a shameful indictment of the "national" broadcasters.

Green party Can't quite form a government on their own, but could be the official opposition. As such, they deserved more careful scrutiny than the quick purview of their manifesto. Slots on the debate programmes should have been forthcoming, along with perhaps a second PEB. The campaign itself was conducted in good humour, using some media stunts (cycling down Westminster) and celeb endorsement (Franz Ferdinand on the PEB is significant.) The lack of a figurehead leader is a distinct disadvantage, as there's no obvious person to talk to, but plays to the party's strength in diversity.

Unitedkingdom Independence Party The UIP are standing enough candidates to form a government. While the chances of this happening are remote in the extreme, they still require and deserve a careful analysis of their position. UIP is coming down from its huge success at last year's Europoll, and didn't really offer anything of substance. They didn't address the concern that withdrawal from the EU would ask serious questions about the viability of the UK; this doesn't really matter for a party that will hold England together no matter what.

Liberal Democrats The strategy was clear in retrospect - start with council tax and social justice, have Charles disappear over the weekend of 24 April for his baby, then come out fighting on Iraq. Events conspired against them - the young lad emerged two weeks early, but the electorate doesn't hold Mr Kennedy's fatigue-induced error against him. The Lib Dems have clearly made the running in the last week and a half, and their "boy who cried wolf" PEB last week-end was the entertainment high-spot of an otherwise drab election.

Throughout, the Lib Dems have put forward a positive message, not gratuitously dragging the other main parties down. Brian Sedgemoor and Greg Duk have both defected from Labour, surely sending the message that Lib Dem is to Old Labour as New Labour is to Soft Tory. Perhaps the most telling moment came in to-day's press conference, when Charles Kennedy was seriously talking in terms of doing very well in the election after this one. In days to come, I'll put forward a grand theory of British politics that might support this view.

Conservatives Very much a campaign of two halves for the official opposition. The phony campaign before Easter framed the debate on Conservative territory, and this strength continued through the first half of April. But slowly, the Tories lost the initiative to the Lib Dems, and their "dog-food politics" proved adept at getting out their core support, but alienating too many floating voters. The core strategy was amongst the best I've seen, ramming home five key messages at every opportunity without being boring about it.

Where did it go wrong? The policies weren't attractive, Mr Howaerd lacks credibility as a national leader, explicitly calling Mr Blair a liar was a tactical error. Perhaps the key mistake, though, was the rough treatment Mr Howaerd handed out to Howard Flight after some comments were leaked. Sacking him from a vice-chair of the party was reasonable; expelling him from the party and denying him the candidature was mean in the extreme. Though the details have been forgotten, the impression that Mr Howaerd is more ruthless than fair remained, and wounded his campaign fatally.

Labour They say that attack is the best form of defence. For Labour, under the guidance of Alan Milburn, it seemed that the incumbents' only message was to attack the opposition and scare people. This is not the language of a strong, confident party, happy to sell its policies on their own merits. This is the language of a deeply insecure group of people, who don't fully believe in their own policies, and hide their fears by telling any old drivel to anyone who will listen.

And when the truth doesn't work, they've resorted to bare-faced lies. Thirty-five milliard pounds in spending cuts, six years down the line? So what; if total government expenditure were the size of a human body, that much money is about the size of a little finger, and these projections are only accurate to within a hand or so. Their psephological arguments are either poppycock or only possible under completely impossible circumstances.

Some parts of the British public are no longer afraid to say "boo" to a goose, as the audience on Question Muck showed last week. Others, sadly, continue to cower in fear of the great unknown. That's all Labour is offering us; protection against the fears of the unknown. They have no policy, just the most nauseatingly negative campaign. Is it any wonder why people have so little time for politics, when the ruling party's politicians so clearly hate themselves?

You want negative campaigning? You get negative campaigning. Thirty five reasons not to vote Labour. From the decline of the postal service and the public library, to the killing of the railways, the voting scandals, the Millooneyum Doom, ID cards, and the continued subjugation to the motor car.

Statpack

New polls all over the shop to-day. Populus/ITV/UDR has a slight shift to Labour, but the BES has the Tory vote increasing slightly, and the Lib Dems storming up 3% in four days. YouGov has the Lib Dems tipping 25% for the first time this campaign. Scotland sees a poll putting the Lib Dems second, and the Tories fourth.

Many marginal seats are the subjects of betting on the various bookies. According to "Blue Moon" on UK Polling Report, the Tories look set to take at least 23 seats from Labour, a further 10 are too close to call, and 12 more are within reach. The Lib Dems look set to gain three from the Tories, 8 from Labour. A couple of Labour seats look to fall to the SNP, but they may lose one to the Tories. That'll lead to an overall Labour majority of about 80, give or take 20.

Those seats in full:
Safe Conservative: Bexleyheath and Crayford, Braintree, Clwyd West, Dorset South, Dumfries and Galloway, Enfield North, Gillingham, Hammersmith and Fulham, Hornchurch, Ilford North, Kettering, Lancaster and Wyre, Monmouth, Peterborough, Selby, Welwyn and Hatfield.
Leaning Conservative Harwich, Milton Keynes North East, Northampton South, Rugby and Kenilworth, Shresbury and Atcham, Thanet South, Wellingborough.
Too close to call Dartford, Elmet, Finchley and Golders Green, Forest of Dean, Gloucester, Hove, Medway, Putney, Redditch, Stroud
Leaning Labour Croydon Central, Hemel Hemstead, High Peak, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Ribble South, St Albans, Scarborough and Whitby, Shipley, Stourbridge, The Wrekin, Wimbledon, Wolverhampton South West.
Safe Labour Battersea, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Kemptown, Colne Valley, Falmouth and Camborne, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, Harrow West, Hastings and Rye, Keighley, Tynemouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Watford.
Possible LD gains from C Eastbourne, Orpington, South West Surrey, Taunton, West Dorset.
Probable LD gains from Lab Inverness, Dunbartonshire East, Aberdeen South, Cardiff Central, Bristol West, Oldham East, Birmingham Yardley, Brent East.

Early declarations there should include Birmingham Edgbaston and Yardley (both shortly after midnight), and Wolverhampton SW (before 1). To-day's DAVIDBUTLER report indicates that Con-LD marginals in Haltemprice, the Isle of Wight, and Wells are too close to call, and Westmoreland and Wiltshire N are in reach.

DAVIDBUTLER
===========
              5U 10U  5A 10A   5av 10av
Lab 379/376 (387-383-371-368) (- 4/- 6)
Con 175/179 (166-170-184-187) (+ 1/+ 3)
LD   61/ 61 ( 62- 62- 60- 60) (+ 3/+ 3)

BETTING
=======
Lab 364.2  (+1.9)
Con 189.2  (-0.7)
LD   65.9  (-0.5)
SNP   5.2  (-.03)
PC    4.4  (-0.1)
RES   0.35 (n/c )
UIP   0.2  (n/c )

Turnout 61.2 (-0.1)

ODDS
====
Lab 1.02 (-0.01)
Con 34.0 (n/c  )
LD  480  (+30.0)
Hung 13.0 (+1.0)

What next?

To-morrow, the statpack is revised with the latest figures, the graphs get updated, and I'll be making a further post around midnight for those who want an early indication of who is doing well.

Go on, stick your neck out

In many ways, this election has reminded me of the 1992 campaign. Both started with the government in a statistical tie with the opposition; both saw Labour open up a huge lead, only to be pegged back late in the campaign. The government of the day was running out of fresh ideas, and campaigned as much on fear of the opposition as on their own policies. While the talk on X-1 in 1992 was of Labour and Nationalist coalitions, the talk to-day is of the size of Labour's majority.

I think there's something in the air, and this election is nowhere near as cut and dried as the consensus makes out. I'm not quite sure what form that something will take, though.

It could be a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems. Local council elections over the last year have consistently shown just over 10% of Labour voters deserting them for the Lib Dems, and Labour's message in the final days has been targetted at these people.

It could be a late surge away from Labour to whoever. Be it Lib Dem, Conservative, or just staying at home, some people haven't forgiven the government for some betrayal or other, and others will have spurned the anxious, policy-free campaign. Maybe it's even a tactical unwind that will benefit the Conservatives, the right votes in the right seats to take lots of seats for relatively little additional vote.

Whatever is happening, I sense that something is up, and to-morrow's poll is not a cast-iron Labour victory. I've said for yonks that Labour won't get a "working majority," by which I'm using the 1970s definition of an overall majority of around 20 seats. Maybe Mr Blair requires more seats to keep his rebellious group in check, maybe he doesn't. I still think it's a toss-up whether Labour will win that working majority. As the other pollsters have allowed themselves a 10-seat margin of error, The Snow In The Summer Or So-So's official election prediction is:

Labour overall majority of 0-40 seats.

permanent link
posted 04 May 2005, 20.56 +0100

Politics

In the 4th Test, South Africa batted first, and that meant Smith (126) and de Villiers (114) stayed at the crease for all of a rain-shortened day, making their centuries in the closing minutes of play. Kallis (147) and Prince (131) joined the centurions on the second day, with South Africa declaring on 588/6. In response, the West Indies had a double-hundred stand of their own - Gayle and Sarwan (127) both made their centuries, Gayle finally out for 317. Chanderpaul also made 127, Bravo 107, and the West Indies were finally all out for 747 (seven hundred and forty-seven). The ground total is the 751 set against England last year. South Africa's second innings lasted just 31 overs, and finished on 127/1. Match drawn.

Thankfully, this will be the last test at Antigua, a new stadium is being built for the 2007 world cup. The old track has brought Brian Lara's test record scores of 375 and 400*, and this match of ten centuries.

permanent link
posted 04 May 2005, 21.20 +0100

Sport

Statpack

And more new polls, generally showing Labour around 37%, the Tories around 32%, and the Lib Dems around 24%. That's a significant late swing to the Tories, yet another echo of 1992.

Repeating yesterday's thoughts on target seats:
Safe Conservative: Bexleyheath and Crayford, Braintree, Clwyd West, Dorset South, Dumfries and Galloway, Enfield North, Gillingham, Hammersmith and Fulham, Hornchurch, Ilford North, Kettering, Lancaster and Wyre, Monmouth, Peterborough, Selby, Welwyn and Hatfield.
Leaning Conservative Harwich, Milton Keynes North East, Northampton South, Rugby and Kenilworth, Shresbury and Atcham, Thanet South, Wellingborough.
Too close to call Dartford, Elmet, Finchley and Golders Green, Forest of Dean, Gloucester, Hove, Medway, Putney, Redditch, Stroud
Leaning Labour Croydon Central, Hemel Hemstead, High Peak, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Ribble South, St Albans, Scarborough and Whitby, Shipley, Stourbridge, The Wrekin, Wimbledon, Wolverhampton South West.
Safe Labour Battersea, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Kemptown, Colne Valley, Falmouth and Camborne, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, Harrow West, Hastings and Rye, Keighley, Tynemouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Watford.
Possible LD gains from C Eastbourne, Orpington, South West Surrey, Taunton, West Dorset.
Probable LD gains from Lab Inverness, Dunbartonshire East, Aberdeen South, Cardiff Central, Bristol West, Oldham East, Birmingham Yardley, Brent East.

DAVIDBUTLER
===========
              5U 10U  5A 10A   5av 10av
Lab 371/364 (377-373-364-356) (- 8/-12)
Con 187/193 (180-184-193-201) (+12/+14)
LD   58/ 58 ( 58- 58- 58- 58) (- 3/- 3)

BETTING
=======
Lab 368.7  (+4.5)
Con 183.4  (-5.8)
LD   66.7  (+0.8)
SNP   5.23 (+.03)
PC    4.6  (+0.2)
RES   0.35 (n/c )
UIP   0.15 (-.05)

Turnout 61.2 (-0.1)

ODDS
====
Lab 1.01 (-0.01)
Con 60.0 (+26  )
LD  410  (-70  )
Hung 13.0 (n/c )

Other stuff: Het Grauniad's election night drinking game, or the Universal Daily Registertab's game, or just use the What Will Snowy Say? guide.

The graphs will be updated before 10.

• Share of vote
• Labour seats
• Conservative seats
• Lib Dem seats
• %age turnout

Until our round-up, somewhere around mid-night, good night!

permanent link
posted 05 May 2005, 20.33 +0100

Politics

10.30 - the exit polls...

Final exit polls - NOP/BBC/ICM showed Lab 37 (-5), Con 33 (nc), LD 22 (+4). According to the BBC, this sees 44 seats transfer to the Tories, and a net gain of just 2 for the Lib Dems.

Crunching the numbers, I get that Lab-Con transfer on Lab 36, Con 33.7, LD 22.3, and 14% anti-Labour tactical voting. Here's the projected results; asterisks mark seats projected with a majority of less than 1% (about 500 votes):

Safe Conservative: Bexleyheath and Crayford, Braintree, Clwyd West, Dorset South, Dumfries and Galloway, Enfield North, Gillingham, Hammersmith and Fulham, Hornchurch, Ilford North, Kettering, Lancaster and Wyre, Monmouth, Peterborough, Selby, Welwyn and Hatfield - all Con GAIN
Leaning Conservative Harwich, Milton Keynes North East, Northampton South, Rugby and Kenilworth, Shresbury and Atcham, Thanet South, Wellingborough - all Con GAIN
Too close to call Dartford, Elmet*, Finchley and Golders Green*, Forest of Dean, Gloucester, Hove, Putney, Redditch, Stroud* - Con GAINS Medway* - Lab HOLD
Leaning Labour Croydon Central*, Hemel Hemstead, High Peak*, Preseli Pembrokeshire*, Ribble South, Scarborough and Whitby, Shipley, Stourbridge**, The Wrekin*, Wimbledon*, Wolverhampton South West* - Con GAINS, St Albans* - Lab HOLD
Safe Labour Battersea, Birmingham Edgbaston, Brighton Kemptown, Colne Valley, Falmouth and Camborne, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, Harrow West, Hastings and Rye, Tynemouth, Vale of Glamorgan, Watford - Lab HOLDS; Keighley* - Con GAIN.
Possible LD gains from C Eastbourne, South West Surrey*, West Dorset - Con HOLDS Orpington, Taunton* - LD GAINS
Probable LD gains from Lab Inverness, Cardiff Central, Oldham East, Birmingham Yardley - LD GAINS; Dunbartonshire East, Aberdeen South, Bristol West* - Lab HOLDS; Brent East (by-election; no call).

Stourbridge, at this time, was the closest seat of all, with a margin of just 0.03%, around 15 votes.

Projection
==========
Lab 348
Con 209
LD   58
Majority: 50

10.40

First results are due - the Lib Dems are very confident of gaining Birmingham Perry Barr - my projection shows that's remaining Labour by around 14%. Close races in Dartford, Preseli Pembroke, Wirral W are exactly within the exit poll.

Our first result: fewer than 18,000 votes for Chris Mullin - Sunderland S on a Lab - Con swing of 4%. That's not as good as it might be - especially given that Sunderland S has given slightly better results for Labour than the national average for the last three elections. And turnout was way, way down - could the Labour vote have stayed at home? The BBC haven't picked up on this at all. Lab 351 Con 207 LD 57 Maj: 56

Lab holding on in Hornchurch - that's a bit of a surprise. Tight in Cleethorpes? I'm showing Lab by 3.5%, so not a huge surprise.

The Boy Blunder's being interviewed on the telly - I'm showing her as a 3.2% majority, so if Labour's in trouble in Hornchurch... Radio 4 are suggesting that the Tories are home in Cardiff N, currently Lab by 4.6%. And Blaenau Gwent is too close to call - normally Labour would have a 47% majority, but they're splitting the vote amongst themselves.

11.25

Result 2: Sunderland North - Labour hold but the majority's down to under 10,000, and a 5.5% swing to the Tories. And turnout of just 50%. The Labour vote is staying at home, this is at least worth a quick mention. No change to the prediction: Lab 351 Con 207 LD 57 Maj: 56

Stephen Twigg in trouble? He's on +3.86% right now - if he goes, Labour could be a dozen seats short.

Result three; Houghton and Washington East - Labour hold. No surprise at all, but the Lib Dems come through to second there on a 7% swing from Labour. They're doing a little better than the exit poll suggested: Lab 354 Con 204 LD 57 Maj: 62 But a turnout of just 51.7% shows that - again - Labour voters are staying at home.

Only two-thirds of postal votes in Birmingham have been used, apparently. And Geoff Hoon is still alive, his appearance at his count is the first time the defence secretary has been seen in public all year!

11.50

The kiddies' favourite, Uncle Mike Crick, is chatting to a couple of young girlies in a pub in Islington. Other people, such as Mike Dimbleby, get to cover the oh-so-important 3am shift. On Radio WM, Ed Doolan is asking for some more results. Please!

The count's been delayed in Keighley by security problems, we hear. That is an ultra-marginal, it's been flip-flopping between the two parties all night and is currently projected Labour by 0.07%.

Result four: Rutherglen and Hamilton W - Lab hold - a 59% turn-out, the Lib Dems are clear second, and they're doing very much better than projected. No change to the projections. They've finished early - the PA had this down for a 1am declaration. On the telly, David Plunkett is being a boor No change.

Lib Dem gain in Hornsey and Wood Green?!?!? That's currently Lab by 13.5%. If that's repeated nationally, the word "crikey" springs to mind. Inverness Etc is a more clear target, but Newcastle Central would be overcoming a 21.6% deficit from here. The Labour vote is collapsing around our ears.

12.15

Result five, Barnsley Central - Lab hold Only a 47% turn-out, but that's the best result Labour's had since Sunderland S. Labour up a couple on the projection: Lab 356 Con 202 LD 57 Maj: 66. Where have we seen that number before. I'm assuming a uniform national swing, which clearly isn't happening.

More results: Lab holds in Hull W, Vauxhall, Rotherham, Newcastle Central, Newcastle East, Tyne Bridge, Eccles, but our first Putney - Con GAIN Great results for the Lib Dems in Newcastle, cutting Labour's majority down to 9% in Central. The Tories are polling badly, but these are mainly Lab-over-LD seats. Yep, Bob Marshall-Andrews reckons he's lost in Medway.

At this stage, just before 1am, we know Labour have 20 seats, the LD 2, the Tories 1. Labour's done very well in Islwyn, but sounds like they've conceded Blaenau Gwent. My projection, at a few minutes to 1am:

Lab 337
Con 216
LD   60
SNP   7
PC    4
Ind   3
NI   18

Labour OM: 28

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posted 06 May 2005, 00.56 +0100

Politics

In 1970, Cliff Michelmore excitedly introduced the results of the BBC's first ever exit poll. It was from exactly one constituency, scientifically selected to be the average constituency, full of average people, driving average cars, with an average income, and with average voting habits. Though the rest of the opinion polls were predicting a Labour victory, the Beeb's exit poll in Gravesend showed the Conservatives just a little ahead, on a swing that would lead to a Conservative majority of about 30. The result? A Conservative majority of 30. Ever since, the BBC's opinion polls have been an object of derision - October 1974's projection (Labour by over 100) didn't emerge until 10.35, and was being loftily dismissed as early as 10.35 and 15 seconds. 1987's "possible hung parliament" translated into a Conservative majority of over 100, 1992's "possible Labour victory" became another certain Tory one. Even in the last two landslides, the poll has over-stated Labour and under-estimated the Tories.

This year, the poll had Labour on a majority of around 66. For those of you who don't want to know the result, look away now.

Result
======

Sinn Fein, DUP won.

Everyone else didn't.

To-day's analysis is a sort-of national overview of the picture; I'll address the fine detail to-morrow or Sunday, once I've got a printed copy of the results to chew over.

Let's start with the night's clear losers. Plaid Cymru went into last night's count with four seats, and clear hopes of gaining Ynys Mon from Labour. Not only did the Welsh nationalist party fail to re-gain the seat they held in 87 and 92, but they lost Ceredigion to the Lib Dems for the first time since 92. Clearly a very bad night.

Working up, it's quite difficult to decide who had the worst night of the three main parties. I reckon it was a pretty poor night for the Conservatives, who didn't manage to make the inroads they'd hoped for. Sure, the Tories gained eight seats in London, another 15 in southern England, and made some steps back onto the political map in Wales and Scotland. However, the party's strength was concentrated in the area to the south of a line drawn between the Bristol Channel and the Wash. South of that line, some great gains - Enfield Southgate has huge symbolic significance, Hammersmith and Fulham and Wimbledon are the sort of places that would never have gone Labour before 97. Pickings were far slimmer in the Midlands - only Shropshire providing any significant gains - and the party made only four gains north of the M62. Nowhere better illustrates the Conservatives' failure to capitalise than the Forest of Dean and Stroud - the Forest is a seat on the Severn estuary and was a Conservative gain, Stroud lies more inland and is a close Labour hold.

Labour had a bad night, but it could so easily have been far worse. Let's be honest, any night where you lose almost 50 MPs is a bad night, but the Labour vote held up in the obvious marginals. Their top two most marginal seats - Dumfries and Galloway and Dorset South - remained in the fold, and a host of other close seats - including ultra-marginals Wirral West and Crawley - are still Labour. Crucially, the party held on to a lot of seats in the West Midlands - the Tories held out prospects in Dudley North and South, in Wolverhampton SW, in Redditch, and in Derbyshire South. None of them went Tory, none of them came close to going Tory.

While Labour's vote was strong in the Midlands, it was surprisingly weak in the north, allowing the Liberal Democrats to clock up some audacious gains. I remarked last night how the Lib Dems were doing well in the urban seats of northern England, and Manchester Withington was their massive coup. The seat had been held by Labour since the invention of the party, but not any more. Possibly more remarkable, though, is the Lib Dem capture of Solihull, a Conservative bastion since before the invention of the universal franchise. The Lib Dems didn't quite make the breakthrough of seats they craved, losing some seats to the Tories in the south. However, they have established themselves as the only truly national party, providing opposition to the Conservatives in the south, to Labour in the north, and a presence in the middle and on the fringes.

The Scottish Nationalist Party had a very good night, picking up Dundee East and Na h-Eileanan an Iar from Labour, and defending the four seats they (notionally) had; there were no other realistic prospects. Apart from the Dundee seat, the SNP failed to seriously dent Labour's dominance in the cities, which must limit their Westminster aspirations.

Independent candidates had a mixed bag. There were wins for Peter Law, an Independent Socialist in Blaenau Gwent; for George Galloway's one-man RESPECT party in Bethnal Green and Bow; and Richard Taylor retained his Wyre Forest seat. Anti-war protesters made strong showings in the seats of Mister Blair and John Straw, while the Greens came within a hair's breadth of third place in Brighton Pavilion. A bad night for the anti-European parties, the UIP lost more than half its deposits, and Robert Kilroy-Shaft's Veritas party did diddly-squat, not even saving the leader's deposit. Even the Scottish Socialists didn't do well, scoring just 1.9% of votes in their seats. The BNP did slightly better than last time, but isn't within hailing distance of a seat any time soon.

Northern Ireland saw defeat for the moderate Ulster Unionist party, losing both East Antrim and Upper Bann to the hardline DUP, and Belfast South to the Catholic SDLP. Sinn Fein also did well, increasing its share of the vote in many seats, though not winning any new ones just yet.

At the time of writing, six seats are yet to declare. The SDLP holds Foyle, Newry and Armargh and South Down; Sinn Fein hopes to add the latter to Mid Ulster. The count in Harlow has been postponed until to-morrow in unusual circumstances - unofficial and unconfirmed sources suggest Labour leads by about 50 votes, but 500 have "gone missing" during the count. This'll end up in court, methinks. No such shenanigans in Staffordshire South, which will be a Conservative hold next month.

Before the list of gains, a couple of footnotes. Regardless of which way Harlow swings, and excluding Staffordshire S, the vote share in England alone put the Conservatives as the largest party, about 100,000 votes ahead of Labour. Because the electoral map still reflects the distribution of population in 1991, Labour's fewer votes translate into more seats.

And remember Peter Snow's attempt at playing Treasure Hunt three weeks ago? He went on a grand tour of the marginal seats of Kent. Labour held seven seats last time, and they still hold all seven to-night. Michael Howaerd's popularity didn't work there.

Those gains in full:

Lab to Con

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Ted Heath's old seat

Braintree

Clwyd West

Croydon Central

Dumfries-shire, Clydes-dale and Tweed-dale

A distant second choice for a Tory gain in Scotland.

Enfield Southgate

Another expression from Steven Twigg's face. We'll not see it again, thankfully.

Forest of Dean

Gravesham

Hammersmith and Fulham

Nailing the illusion that the new yuppies vote Labour.

Harwich

Hemel Hempstead

Never been Tory in opposition before.

Hornchurch

Ilford North

Kettering

Lancaster and Wyre

The sort of seat that the Con hoped to hold in 97.

Milton Keynes North East

Monmouth

Almost an outpost of the Forest of Dean.

Northampton South

Peterborough

Preseli Pembroke

An anglophone enclave in south-west Wales.

Putney

Another iconic London seat.

Reading East

The local party's been split down the middle, the Tories would have hoped to add Reading W.

Rugby and Kenilworth

But neighbouring Warwick and Leamington remains Labour.

Scarborough and Whitby

Shipley

Shrewsbury and Atcham

The voters here have been represented by Paul Marsden, who defected back from LD to Lab in March. Three parties in six weeks.

St Albans

Wellingborough

Welwyn Hatfield

Shirley Williams' stomping ground, once upon a time.

Wimbledon

Yes, this went Labour.

Wrekin

Lab to LD

Birmingham Yardley

Estelle Morris's old seat, a LD target since 92.

Brent East

Gained at the 2003 by-election; the LD lost Leicester S.

Bristol West

Cambridge

Overturning a 10,000 majority.

Cardiff Central

These three seats all have a strong student presence.

Dunbartonshire East

Falmouth and Cambourne

Another three-way marginal.

Hornsey and Wood Green

This was safe Old Labour.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch, and Strathspey

Leeds North West

Manchester Withington

Rochdale

Cyril Smith's pad until his retirement in 97.

Con to LD

Solihull

Yes, really.

Westmorland and Lonsdale

The one success of the LD decapitation strategy - Tim Collins, Education.

LD to Con

Devon West and Torridge

Been bouncing between these parties since the 60s - Mark Bonham-Carter and Emma Nicholson have held this in the past.

Guildford

Ludlow

Both one-term wonders; Ludlow has now gone Con - Lab - LD - Con.

Newbury

Reversing a by-election gain in 1993, the only established seat to fall.

Taunton

Fox-hunting lost the last LD MP her job in 01.

Weston-super-Mare

Lab to RESPECT

Bethnal Green and Bow

Lab to SNP

Dundee East

Na h'Eileanan an Iar

Lab to Ind Soc

Blaenau Gwent

Plaid Cymru to LD

Ceredigion

DUP to UUP

Lagan Valley

South Antrim

Upper Bann

DUP to SDLP

Belfast South

One final note: if Harlow does become the final Con gain, Labour's overall majority will be 66, and the exit poll will have been bang-on for the first time in thirty-five years. It's almost a century since Gravesend wasn't part of the government; the Con gain there brings to an end its position as Britain's bellweather.

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posted 06 May 2005, 20.40 +0100

Politics

So, I've been working on all the results, and comparing them against the uniform national swing. All these stats are worked to three significant figures, and positive numbers represent more votes locally than the uniform national swing predicts. Swings in any seat or region are not necessarily zero-sum, as they're affected by the strength or weakness of other parties.

Birmingham

Birmingham's been an interesting set of results. Edgbaston has high symbolic value, but for all the Conservatives' targetting, Labour over-polled here, as they did in Erdington, Hall Green, and Northfield. The Lib Dems retained a by-election bounce in Hodge Hill, polling +16.8% above the national swing. Clare Short was a fully paid-up member of The Awkward Squad, but had her majority slashed by 10,000 as the Lib Dems overpolled by +18.4%. The Lib Dems claimed early victory in Perry Barr, but this was a load of nonsense, Labour finished +7.49% to the national swing. Yardley went Lib Dem on +3.31%, but the big story (ignored by the national media) was the result in Sparkbrook. Labour's majority was cut from 16,000 to 3300, and only held on because the anti-war vote was split between RESPECT (second. 10,500) and the Lib Dems (third on 7700.)

K*nt

I remarked yesterday about how well Labour had done in northern K*nt. Dartford remained Labour by 706, with Howard Stoate overpolling by +1.88% as the Tories fell -0.72%. Dover, an outside Tory bet, remained Labour on a +3.89% / -3.89% result. Michael Howaerd's leadershop benefited him by +9.47% in Folkestone, and Gillingham fell in spite of Labour moving by +3.50%. Bob Marshall-Andrews kept his Medway seat by 213, seemingly thanks to the collapse in the minor parties' vote. Sittingbourne was a possible Tory gain, especially thanks to a loss for the UIP, but Labour clung on by 79. Thanet South also remained Labour by 664, with over 2000 votes going to the UIP - the Tories went -3.58% under the national swing.

Region by region

South East A good region for the Conservatives, moving +1.63% beyond the national swing, and picking up seven seats. They did particularly well in Con-LD marginals, but not so well in Labour marginals - see the K*nt discussion above. Labour fell short in this area, -0.74% against the national swing. The Lib Dems did well, +1.05%, and becoming the opposition in the Labour-held marginals outside K*nt and Brighton. The weakness against the Conservatives was marked and could be a problem. The most typical seat for the region was Woking, followed by Ashford and Tonbridge.

East Anglia was surprisingly profitable territory for the Lib Dems, fully +4.06% ahead of the national swing. They've moved into first or second place almost everywhere, though the only gain was in Cambridge. Labour finished -0.95% behind the national vote, and in spite of gaining four seats, the Tories were fully -1.41% behind the pace. Norwich South, Ipswich, and Suffolk Coastal are the most typical seats here.

London was very poor for Labour. -1.26% off the national pace, and 11 seats down. The Tories picked up eight seats, and moved +1.00% further ahead of the national swing. The Lib Dems were slightly better, +1.63%, held their by-election and took one further seat. Eltham, Croydon South, and Hackney South were representative of the region.

South West was perhaps the most typical performance of all the regions. The Tories advanced by +0.64% above their national performance, the Lib Dems by +0.24%, and Labour fell away by -0.21%. These figures mask some large differences - the average Lib Dem performance in their own seats was -2.48%, with Labour rising +1.32%, generally from third place. This feels like a tactical unwind - the people who voted Lib Dem to keep the Tories out in 97 and 01 either stayed at home or returned to the Tory fold. The typical seats, if such things exist, are Somerton and Frome, Taunton, and Stroud.

In the run-up to the election, the West Midlands was portrayed as the cockpit of the election. Whoever wins the West Midlands wins the country, and Labour won the West Midlands. +0.88% below the national swing saved three seats, and set the tone for the rest of the nation. The Lib Dems had a net gain of one seat, and polled +1.48% ahead of the national swing. The Tories fell -0.62% behind their national swing, but that sufficed for three gains. Rugby and Kenilworth, Burton, and Worcester are the closest to the average.

The East Midlands is just about the only area where the Lib Dems still don't compete - their only seat in the region remains Chesterfield. However, that's beginning to change, as the Lib Dems move +1.49% compared to the national figure. It's starting from a low base, but it's progress. Labour held their ground, moving +0.30% to the nation, and while the Tories gained three seats, they came slowly, -1.50% behind the national trend. On the other hand, had the Tories polled at the national level, they wouldn't have gained anything. Your region-typical seats: Grantham, Derby North, Sleaford.

Yorkshire was the cockpit of Labour's win. They went +2.42% above the national showing, virtually halving the loss of votes. The Lib Dem advance continued, +0.73% ahead of the nation and one seat, but the Tories were held to -1.64% below the swing elsewhere, and only two seats came as a result - Calder Valley and Selby would have gone on the national swing. Typical Yorkshire seats include Harrogate, Leeds Central, and Hull East.

North West was almost as faithful to Labour as the other side of the Pennines. Labour went +2.27%, and lost just three seats, all to the Lib Dems, all but one surprises. The Lib Dem march continued, +1.27% to the nation, and the Tories -0.88% below. Salford, Eddisbury, and Macclesfield are the most typical results.

Northern England was the scene of the Conservatives' worst performance, falling -1.98% below the national share. Labour advanced by +2.57%, and the Lib Dems +2.40%. The typical seats in a region where nothing changed hands were Gateshead, Blyth Valley, and Penrith. Sunderland South turned out to be a poor predictor of the nation, over-stating the Tories by +2.44% and Labour by +4.39%.

The situation in Wales is made complicated by the poor showing of Plaid Cymru. Labour profited from this collapse, finishing at +1.72% above the national share. The Lib Dems were at +1.45%, gaining one from Labour and one from Plaid. The Tories moved at -0.16%, almost exactly in line with the national share, and picked up three from Labour. Montgomeryshire, Clwyd South, and Neath were the standard seats.

Scotland was the best region for the Lib Dems, moving second on the vote and +2.30% ahead of the national share. Labour performed a little above average, +0.71% better than the UK average, while the Tories slipped by -0.77%. Two gains for the Lib Dems, two for the SNP, and one for the Tories. The average Scottish seats were Dundee West, East Kilbride, and Aberdeenshire West.

The most typical seats nationally

1. Glenrothes
2. Daventry
3. Horsham
4. Bury South
5. Eastbourne
6. Reading West
7. Cornwall South East
8. Croydon Central
9. Angus
10. Gosport

Full details and analysis on about 100 seats are in a breakout article.

All politics is local

There were also some local council elections yesterday, broadly reflecting the same swings as the national picture. The Conservatives take Oxfordshire, the Isle of Wight, Worcestershire (just!) and Gloucestershire; the Lib Dems gain Devon and Somerset; Labour just hold Staffordshire, and fail to take Bristol or Stockton. In mayoral elections, it's no change - Labour in Doncaster and North Tyneside, an abolitionist in Stoke-on-Trent, and a monkey in Hartlepool.

An interesting constitutional question arises. Though they didn't win the most seats, the Conservatives did win more votes than any other party in England - about 65,000 more, and South Staffs can only increase that figure. There are those who argue that this could be the praecursor to an "English independence" movement - indeed, the Campaign for an English Parliament have picked this one up already.

There will be at least three new party leaders at the next election - Mister Blair told us last year that he wouldn't seek a fourth term; yester-day Conservative leader Michael Howaerd announced that he would step down in favour of a younger bloodsucker "sooner rather than later"; and to-day saw David Trimble resign from the leadership of the Ulster Unionists, after his party was reduced to a single MP.

To repeat one canard of the closing weeks of the last election - if one in ten Labour voters doesn't vote next time, they really will lose their majority, finishing 17 seats short.

And finally, an exclusive

The next general election will be combined with the European election, and will take place on 11 June 2009. The prime minister has made the announcement to-day in order to save the months of mindless speculation about the date of the next general election.

We'll start the clock on the next election. The show may be over, but the electioneering goes on!

X-1496 and counting!

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posted 07 May 2005, 21.01 +0100

Politics

Perhaps the ultimate test of international pop acceptance is to be huge in Sweden. The people of Scandinavia have always made the running when it comes to tremendous pop, and for a foreign act to succeed there is praise indeed. So we were very happy to see Daniel Powter land in the top ten this week, with his utterly wonderful Bad Day, which we featured two weeks ago. Next stop will be huge hitness in the UK, if there's any justice...

Top of the pops in Sweden is another import, that small toothy green creature from Egypt. Oh yes. Schnappi, das kleine Krokodil is the biggest seller in Sweden; the follow-up, Schnappi und das Lama in Yokohama is doing astoundingly well in Germany.

Seven weeks at the top may have come to an end for Tony Christie, but he takes much comfort by being the biggest single in Northern Europe this week. The Tears we raved about last week, and Snoop Dogg needs no further publicity from this quarter. Kelly Clarkson's record is tickling the underbellies of many charts over in the Baltic.

*20 NE Kelly Clarkson - Breakaway
 19 re John Mayer - Daughters
 18 17 Nena - Liebe ist
 17 re Phantom Planet - Leighton Buzzard
 16 19 Sarah Connor - From zero to hero
 15 re Clemence and Jean-Baptiste Maunier
         - Concerto pour deux voix
*14 re Daniel Powter - Bad day
*13 12 Moby - Lift me up
*12 NE Snoop Dogg - Signs
 11  2 Natalie Imbruglia - Shiver
 10  9 Gregory Lemarchal - Ecris l'histoire
  9  6 Garbage - Why do you love me?
  8 10 U2 - Sometimes you can't make it on your own
  7  3 Schnappi - Schnappi, das kleine Krokodil
* 6  8 Goo Goo Dolls - Give a little bit
* 5 11 50 Cent - Candy shop
* 4  1 Mario - Let me love you
* 3 NE Tears - Refugees
* 2  4 Ilona Mitrecey - Un monde parfait
* 1  5 Tony Christie - Is this the way to Amarillo?

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posted 08 May 2005, 18.24 +0100

Entertainment

A consistently inconsistent week, with good intervals of sun interrupted by some short but hefty showers. The worst were on Tuesday and Saturday. Winds were mostly from the south-west, but after a front passed over on Friday night, they shifted to be strong nor-westerlies.

02 Mo sun, odd showers    10/19
03 Tu cloud, sun, showers 11/16
04 We cloud, sun evening   8/13
05 Th sunny spells         8/17
06 Fr sun, rain o'night    8/16
07 Sa wind, sun, showers   7/13
08 Su sun, sharp showers   6/13

½ degree heating day this week, the winter's total is 666 - also the BNP vote in at least one seat last Thursday, make of that as you will. Degree cooling remains at 1.

Next week - showers to-morrow will clear, but the nor-westerly airflow will remain until Wednesday, when it's replaced by sou-westerlies, which in turn might allow continental showers to arrive for the week-end. Good oh!

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posted 08 May 2005, 20.54 +0100

News

older writing... write to