Akronistic - The Snow In The Summer or So-So

11 November 2018

Results for last week's top fifteen:

01 Alabama bt Mississippi Prov 24-0
02 Georgia bt Auburn 27-10
03 Clemson bt Boston College 27-7
04 Notre Dame bt Florida Terr 42-13
05 Michigan bt Rutgers 42-7
06 Oklahoma bt Oklahoma Terr 48-47
07 LSU bt Arkansas 24-17
08 Central Florida bt Navy 35-24
09 Washington Prov bt Colorado 31-7
10 Ohio Prov bt Michigan Prov 26-6
11 West Virginia bt TCU 47-10
12 Kentucky lost to Tennessee 7-24
13 Fresno St lost to Boise St 17-24
14 Army bt Lafayette (II) 31-13
15 Florida bt South Carolina 35-31

Not a huge amount to say on many of these. Oklahoma won their game by the odd point in 95, a low-scoring one in that series. UCF were run closer than they might like.

Lower down, Kentucky's loss ends their hopes of an Elite Eight bowl on sporting merit. Fresno State's loss puts them at a disadvantage, but they still make the MW title game if they win out. Army's big win against a crap team won't help their cause.

Here are the upsets, ranked by overturned probability. .9641 UNLV - San Diego St 27-24
.9145 Old Dominion - North Texas 34-31
.8582 SMU - Connecticut 62-50
.7770 Wake Forest - NC Province 27-23
.7417 Tennessee - Kentucky 24-7
.7268 Miami-of-Ohio - Ohio 30-28
.6635 Minnesota - Purdue 41-10
.6581 Nebraska - Illinois 54-35

The conference titles are beginning to fill out: a * marks a team whose place is secure:

AA - UCF v Houston
AC - *Clemson v Pittsburgh
BT - Oklahoma v West Virginia
BX - Ohio Prov v *Northwestern
CU - UAB v Florida International
MA - *Buffalo v Northern Illinois
MW - Utah Prov v Fresno St
PX - Washington Prov v Arizona Prov
SB - Troy v Louisiana-Monroe
SE - *Alabama v *Georgia

Clemson's path to the ACC title seems assured. Buffalo are projected to an 11-win regular season, their loss is Army's best win. Northwestern make the title game after beating Iowa; an Iowa fan of our acquaintance reckons the refs were even less competent than usual, which is saying something. The toss-up between Michigan and Ohio Province goes to the latter this week.

All of which leaves the top 15 looking like this:

01 Alabama [nc]
02 Georgia [nc]
03 Clemson [nc]
04 Notre Dame [nc]
05 Michigan [nc]
06 Oklahoma [nc]
07 LSU [nc]
08 Ohio Prov [+2]
09 UCF [-1]
10 Washington Prov [-1]
11 West Virginia [nc]
12 Florida [+3]
13 Cincinnati [+5]
14 Army [nc]
15 Penn Prov [+7]

No change in the top seven, but beneath the surface Clemson has halved Georgia's advantage; both pull away from Notre Dame.

Ohio Province had been about 60% favourites against Michigan Province, and won easily; that lifts them ahead of UCF (struggled against Navy) and Washington Prov (always expected to beat Colorado). Though the rankings favour Ohio Prov against Michigan, it's Michigan who have the better corpus of work - stronger schedule and clearer wins.

Cincinnati move up from beating South Florida, USF's third loss in a row, and Cinci are now +9-1. Penn Province take a sharp uptick after confirming their win over Wisconsin.

Right now, the four-team playoff would be Clemson - Notre Dame, and Alabama against Michigan if they win the "Big" "Ten", Georgia otherwise.

The eight-team playoff: Alabama - Washington Prov, Clemson - UCF, Notre Dame - Ohio Prov, Oklahoma - Georgia.

And Eastern Michigan have reached six wins, and are eligible to go to their second bowl in three years; a win against K*nt State on the 23rd will secure a certain slot. Five years ago, EMICH were perpetual cellar-dwellers, lucky to pick up more than one win. Now they're scrappy midfielders, with a transitive win over Ohio Province. Go Eagles.

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