Central to your weekend - The Snow In The Summer or So-So

4 November 2018
Don't run up the score!

The results:

01 Clemson bt Louisville 77-16
02 Notre Dame at Northwestern 31-21
03 Alabama at 04 LSU, 29-0
05 Georgia at 08 Kentucky, 34-17
06 Michigan bt Penn State 42-7
07 Oklahoma at Texas Tech 51-46
09 Ohio Prov bt Nebraska 36-31
10 Florida LOST vs Missouri 17-38
11 Washington Prov bt California 19-13
12 UCF bt Temple 52-40
13 Iowa LOST at Purdue 36-38
14 Fresno State at UNLV 48-3
15 Utah LOST at Arizona Prov 20-38

The Football Gods note Clemson's poor sportsmanship by running up the score against lesser opponents. Such hubris will be penalised - Clemson pick up just 59% of the win bonus, as if they'd won 33-21. Alabama are rewarded by scoring a near-perfect game against LSU, and taking a full 97% of the win bonus. The only way to score 100% is to win 28-0, and most teams score around 65%.

Here are some upsets:

.8660 SMU - Houston 45-31
.8647 Tulane - South Florida 41-15
.7814 Louisiana-Monroe - Georgia Southern 44-25
.7385 Florida Atlantic - Florida International 49-14
.7068 Purdue - Iowa 38-36
.6917 Missouri - Florida 38-17
.6866 Massachusetts - Liberty 62-59 aet
.6859 Southern Mississippi - Marshall 26-24
.6654 Arizona Prov - Utah 38-20
.6538 Illinois - Minnesota - 55-31

A few changes to the title games.

AA - UCF v Houston
AC - Clemson v Pittsburgh
BT - Oklahoma v West Virginia
BX - Michigan v Northwestern
CU - Florida International v UAB
MA - Buffalo v Northern Illinois
MW - Fresno St v Utah Prov
PX - Washington Prov v Southern Calif
SB - Troy v Louisiana-Monroe
SE - Alabama v Georgia

Going into this weekend, we projected Pittsburgh to miss the bowls. We now project them to be in the ACC title game, on the grounds that someone has to be in there. Northwestern have also risen without trace: though we make Iowa favourites against Northwestern next week, the Hawkeyes still need the Newts to lose another game. Someone has to be in there.

Earlier in the season, Colorado started with 5 wins, and dreamed of the PX title game. They're now projected to be 5-7 and dream only of a minor bowl. Southern California are the PX-S nominee at the moment, on the grounds that someone has to be in there. West Virginia climb into the BT title game by more conventional means: viz, beating the previous team most likely to.

And we know both someones for the SE match, Alabama and Georgia punched their tickets for Atlanta with victories. Both sides have had their 13th match booked in the rankings, and gain a one-time rankings lift - other conferences will catch up as their title games are confirmed.

The top 15:

01 Alabama [+2]
02 Georgia [+3]
03 Clemson [-2]
04 Notre Dame [-2]
05 Michigan [+1]
06 Oklahoma [+1]
07 LSU [-3]
08 UCF [+4]
09 Washington [+2]
10 Ohio Province [-1]
11 West Virginia [NEW+7]
12 Kentucky [-4]
13 Fresno State [+1]
14 Army [NEW+5]
15 Florida [-5]

Bubbling under: Boston College, Utah Province, Cincinnati, Buffalo, North Carolina Territory.

Defending Glickoblog champ Georgia's rank is inflated by the SE schedule: when Clemson get to their title game, they'll move back up to second. Not first - Alabama get a massive boost from beating LSU so comprehensively, and should not now be caught by Clemson. Notre Dame shouldn't drop below fourth unless they lose.

In the race for fourth, we reckon Michigan is about 0.65 games ahead. It looks like Oklahoma will regain some ground from a more difficult championship match, but the two sides' remaining opposition is about equal.

Ohio Province's disappointing result sees them fall below both Washington (ouch!) and defending national champion UCF (double ouch!). Army can only fall from here - their remaining fixtures are against two Division II sides, and the not-very-good Navy side.

Four-team playoff: we have Alabama vs Michigan, Clemson vs Notre Dame.

Eight-team playoff: we reckon Alabama vs Washington, Clemson vs Georgia, Notre Dame vs UCF, Michigan vs Oklahoma.

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