The Snow In The Summer or So-So

Week of 15 June 2009

16 June 2009
That 40 million quid claim. Is it a fact?

Back in the European election campaign, the UIP claimed that the UK paid £40 million a day to the EU. What's the validity of this claim?

We kitted ourselves out with all the equipment necessary to delve into the labyrinth that is the European Union budgets: hard hat, lamp, pickaxe, length of rope, mint cake, minotaur costume (just in case Peter Mandelson visits). Here's what the UK contributed for the 2007 financial year (the most recent for which actual figures, rather than projections, are available).

(More: We don't reckon it's true, and vastly over-estimates how much the government would gain from leaving the EU.)

In conclusion: the UKIP's claim that the UK pays £40m per day is factually incorrect. The actual figure is about three-quarters of this. If the UK were to leave the EU, she would not benefit by £40m per day, but by a maximum of £6m per day. The real figure may be substantially lower.

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17 June 2009
Three tiers of Europe

Paul Gillespie suggests a three-tier model of European commitment. The winners from European integration are upper managers, the well-educated, and employees of multinational companies; only about 15% of Europe fits into that category. Next come people who travel, consume media from other countries, and are primarily anchored to their country; something like 40% of the continent's in that category. The clear losers are those people who don't travel, speak only one language, and are culturally isolated from the rest of Europe. It's the middle camp who will decide the success of the project, argues Gillespie; they need their welfare systems and employment to be protected so that the disadvantages don't outweigh the advantages they see from the economic tie-ups. The pro-Europe camp would be best to reassure people that their personal standard of living won't fall.

To return to the isolationist segment, the sort who aren't exposed to any culture other than their own. We recall that, when Mr. Murdoch's SKY project was in its infancy, it made its home at the 19°E position shared with German broadcasters. It meant that satellite viewers could scoot between British and German transmissions, and some German channels received large audiences for their Saturday night light porn. When SKY decided to go digital in 1998, it also moved orbital position to 28°E, which became a UK-exclusive position. There's no chance of subscribers chancing upon superior programming from Germany, or some quality entertainment from France. Is it any wonder that the people of Britain have turned their back on Europe when such casual exposure is a thing of the past? That Murdoch's a sneaky little bugger, isn't he.

Domestic constitutional reform

Quickly to comment upon Peter Tatchell's Greenprint for Britain. Top-up lists for the Commons? STV for The Upper Chamber? Strike that, reverse it. STV beats all other systems into a cocked hat, and we really think that it's better than anything involving party lists. We will accept an open-list election for The Upper Chamber, or something along the Australian model: people can STV amongst candidates if they wish, but they can mark X in a box to follow a particular party line. One part of the Australian model we reject under any circumstance is the inability to go non-effective non-transferable: Australia only counts fully-specified ballots, the citizens aren't allowed to be indifferent to their politicians at all. If a voter wishes to go 1-spot, that's their right.

Written constitution is something that's almost going to happen by stealth: the procedures laid down from the current crisis will make the creation of such a document not much more than a piece of tidying-up. The status of the monarch is something we can kick into touch for the moment, but the abolition of the Royal Perogative is a necessary piece of business. Indeed, if we got rid of that, the prospect of a ceremonial president-for-life may give an extra reservoir of wisdom. This website's problem isn't with the monarch, or her heirs, but with the retinue of snobs around her.

We don't particularly agree with the concept of recall motions (especially if the term of office is three years or less) but do believe they should be achievable: 25% of the electorate feels like too high a bar in a way that 10% is not. We're very much in favour of devolved government within England, which would replace regional QUANGOs. We're also in favour of giving more power to Select Committees of Parliament; once The Upper Chamber has democratic legitimacy, we would expect most committees to have members from both chambers. In short: good starting point, we disagree on the detail.

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18 June 2009
Running out of things to say about Europe

Where should the Piratpartiet align itself when session begins, enquires Crooked Timber. Henry argues that PP will fit well into the ALDE group, adding their MEP (two once Lisbon comes into force) to the civil liberties wing of the group.

We take ever so slight comedy offence against MisterG B's implication that no serious psephologist thought the Greens could gain election in Eastern Counties. We said in early May that they stood a chance, and in the pause between polling and counting that the Greens were just favoured over UIP and C for the final seat. What's that, Mr. Pokery's voice of sanity? We're just playing and happen to be better than the professionals? Both gentlemen are accurate: no professional psephologists were consulted in the manufacture of this website. That's why it does so well, except when it doesn't.

Or are we more depressed by MissS B's heartfelt scarpering in the style of this, this, this, and something a bit further down this? It's almost certainly for the best: if leisure activities stop being fun, it's time to hit them on the head and go off and do something less boring instead. While we'll usually endorse evolutionary change so slow it can be mistaken for stasis, we agree that there is a place for revolution.

Have we now run out of things to say on the European election results? We appear to have done so, so we will get off the topic until we have something else to say. Or until Vicky Ford, who we're unofficially adopting as this blog's entirely unofficial MEP To Follow, has something to say. Why a Conservative? We reckon enough left-leaning bloggers will adopt sympathetic MEPs. We like a challenge, and we reckon the Reformed EDs will make interesting reading. Why Mrs. Ford? She impressed us greatly when standing in this blog's Westminster constituency in 2005.

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20 June 2009
Je n'ai pas en marre du Johnny Marr

Are these two linguistic expressions linked? The English word mar derives from the Old Frisian for to hinder, which turned into the Old Saxon merrian, Middle Dutch merren, Old High German marren and merren. A parallel form - mearrian (Old English) and marren (Middle High German) - meant to linger or loiter, but the two forms merged phonetically, relying on transitivity to determine the meaning.

The OED says that the Germanic word went into the Romance languages via post-Classical Latin marrire, recorded in Old French as marrir (to perplex and distress) which survives as modern French marri (saddened, upset).

French etymoligists are less certain about the derivation of the adjective marre de, but it's generally believed to derive from marer, which turned into se marrir and the verb marri.

In short: yes.

And for those of you who are struggling with Excel, try =if( b4>10, c4, "") so that only the numbers, and not the text, are averaged.

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Director's cut

Language Log returns to Eady's game of bogies, and asks its readers to sign a petition to keep libel laws out of science.

You turn if you want to: the EDs are, er, spinning on a sixpence. After saying that he would cut funding to the gay pride parade, Doncaster's newly elected mayor has executed a U-turn that would make a joyrider envious. He will give the £3000 to the pride parade, because he doesn't want the parade to sue the council.

Tuesday's Blue Peter was the one that Joel Defries Is a Weatherman directed. The main studio bit was a make of a card with an elastic band and trick spider inside; Helen couldn't get it right during transmission. Lots of filmed footage: Joel releasing some water voles, Joel and Helen making ice cream (malt loaf >> pizza... pizza-flavoured ice-cream anyone? Anyone? Mrs. Onroses?). And, just to prove that there is something good on SuperCeefax, a Director's Cut of the show. Wednesday was the update on the appeal (still about 50,000 meals short of the target), some tomfoolery with puppet horses, and a behind-the-scenes with Girls Can't Catch. If, as Mr. Bother suggests, The Saturdays are the Tesco Value Council Estate Slappers (harsh, but his words), then Girls Can't Catch would be the Aldi own-brand Saturdays. If we're to believe Popjustice, we're being entirely too nice. To the group. Incidentally, remember how back at the start of the series, Mr. Defries spent a day as The Saturday's manager? They've all come a very long way in nine months.

Other telly this week: The Secret Life of the Airport (Fourth Programme) was just as good as the motorway series from eighteen months back. Crude Britannia was less on the button, because oil rigs are somewhat less glamorous than airports. Mitchell and Webb (BBC-2) opened with their strongest sketch, the Money For Old Rope company.

We've also been hearing the strange tale of fokkie, the advertising slogan that's taken on a life of its own. Originally conceived as a scrambled version of coffee, it's now entered everyday usage and there's serious pressure to put it in the Van Dale dictionary. And, of course, it's not a campaign we expect to be replicated in the English-speaking world.

Speaking, as we were, of SuperCeefax, there's another rejected design for the digital interactive gubbins.

Good stuff from Crooked Timber on the history of stealing elections and how the situation in Iran may be averting a military coup by pro-Ahmedinejad forces. They're also debating how the bans on smoking are altering social norms. And, while debating the morals behind the recent egging of the convicted criminal Nickholas Griffin, there are some truly aweful yolks.

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This week's news

Unrest continued in Iran, where authorities grudgingly agreed to a recount of some of the disputed ballots from last week's presidential elections. Turnouts of more than 100% were reported in at least thirty towns. Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in Tehran against the result, in spite of the government banning such gatherings. The government also tried to ban journalists from operating in the city, but citizen journalists were easily able to evade the blocks.

European leaders agreed a set of protocols to confirm Ireland's neutrality, its theocratic position against abortion, and the retention of its commissioner. The people will therefore be asked to vote again in a referendum to approve the Lisbon treaty and the new annexe; the referendum will take place on 2 October. The guarantees will be included in a future EU treaty, possibly the expansion treaty for Croatia (and Iceland?)

The death was announced of Millvina Dean, last survivor of the sinking of SS Titanic.

The BAA championship was decided, with the Pueblo de Nuestra Señora la Reina de los Ángeles Lackers beating the Orlando Moogic by four buckets to one.

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In our other journals this week...
Weather

The dominant feature this week was an area of high pressure that settled somewhere around Denmark. That's led to gentle easterlies over the UK, with cool winds. A front brought rain from the north on Wednesday, clearing away the excessively humid air. It's remained humid since, but surprisingly cold for a dry spell in the middle of June. The outlook is for a continuation of the settled weather, the high pressure will only slowly move away. The south of the UK may see some particularly warm days, the north will remain cool, as will east-facing coasts, so do wrap up.

15 Mo sunny spells       12/19
16 Tu sun                 8/21
17 We sun, showers       10/17,12.5
18 Th sunny spells       10/17
19 Fr cloud               9/18
20 Sa sunny spells       10/18
21 Su sunny spells        8/19

Rainfall in June: 80mm; monthly average: 50mm

Degree cooling days: 24
2008: 31/114
2007: 32/91
2006: 67/360
2005: 47/238
2004: 54/198
2003: 56/328

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