The by-election in Henley has taken place, following the resignation of Cripes Boris Crikey!. The result was as follows:
John Howell (C): 19,796 (56.95%, +3.46%) Stephen Kearney (LD): 9,680 (27.85%, +1.84%) Mark Stevenson (G): 1,321 ( 3.80%, +0.54%) Timothy Rait (BNP): 1,243 ( 3.58%) Richard McKenzie (Lab): 1,066 ( 3.07%,-11.68%) Chris Adams (UIP): 843 ( 2.43%, -0.07%) Bananaman Owen (Loon): 242 ( 0.70%) Derek Allpass (ED): 157 ( 0.45%) Amanda Harrington (I): 128 ( 0.37%) Dick Rodgers (CG): 121 ( 0.35%) Louise Cole (I): 91 ( 0.26%) Harry Bear (SLLoon): 73 ( 0.21%) Three-party transfers: C -Lab: +4.19% C - LD: undefined Lab-LD: -3.38%
And if those transfers were repeated nationally, the Conservatives are the largest party in a hung parliament, 19 seats short of an overall majority. 51 seats are marginal by 1% or less, and Crewe returns to Labour. Out go R. Kelly, Charles Clarke, and Jacqui Marginal.
Het Grauniad reported that it's the first time in England that one of the major parties has been beaten into fifth since 1976. It's true that Fran Oborski (L) came fifth in Walsall North, behind Sidney Wright (Ind) and an NF candidate. This wasn't the most recent occasion a major party has failed in such a way, and set our research buds tingling. We haven't researched before the Torrington by-election in 1958, the beginning of the Liberal party's revival. The full list of examples since Torrington of parties already in the Commons falling behind fringe candidates are:
- Swansea East (28.03.63, C behind PP)
- Oldham West (13.06.68, L behind APA)
- Southampton Itchen (27.05.71, L behind NatD)
- Merthyr Tydfil (13.04.72, L behind Comm)
- Newham South (23.05.74, C behind NF)
- Walsall North (04.11.76, L behind Ind, NF)
- Birmingham Stechford (31.03.77, L behind NF)
- Birmingham Ladywood (18.08.77, L behind NF)
- Lambeth Central (20.04.77, L behind NF)
- Bermondsey (24.02.83, C behind Ind Lab)
- Glasgow Central (15.06.89, SLD and SDP behind G)
- Upper Bann (17.05.90, C behind The Worker's Party and a Northern Ireland Independance Party candidate)
- Bootle (I, 24.05.90, SDP behind G, Liberal, and Loon)
- Monmouth (16.05.91, a combined PC/G candidate behind Loon)
- Liverpool Walton (04.07.91, C behind the left-wing Walton Real Labour)
- North Down (15.06.95, C behind Ind UU)
- Hamilton South (23.09.99, C behind SSP; LD behind SSP and Hamilton Accies Home, Watson Away party.
- Falkirk West (21.12.00, LD behind SSP)
- Hartlepool (30.09.04, C behind UIP)
- Bromley and Chislehurst (29.06.06, Lab behind UIP)
- Ealing Southall (19.07.07, RESPECT behind G)
- Henley (26.06.08, Lab, UIP behind G, BNP)
We do not include the following wins by Independent candidates: Lincoln (1973), Fermanagh and South Tyrone (1981 I and II) Blaenau Gwent (2006).
UIP became a non-fringe party when it received Bob Spink as an MP in April 2008.
Sources for this article are the tables at The UK By-Elections Website (1958-79) and David Boothroyd's Election Site (1979-). Errors in interpretation are our own.
There is unlikely to be an addition at the Haltemprice by-election, as only one of the twenty-six candidates is from a party represented in the Commons, the Conservative candidate. The UIP aren't standing, and the only recognised groups opposing Mr. Davis are G and Loon.
