Before we discuss the London election result, allow us to vent about the media coverage. It was shit. Nothing on national radio, nothing much on the television, and the radio (we can only receive LBC) preferred to play tapes from hours ago than give the constituency results. With the night drawing on, we gave up just before 11, and thought we'd come back to it in the morning.
The Mayor
Johnson - C 1043761 + 124977 = 1168738
Livingstone - Lab 893877 + 135089 = 1028966
Paddick - LD 236685
Berry - G 77374
Barnbrook - BNP 69710
Craig - CPP 39249
Batten - UIP 22422
German - LL 16796
O'Connor - ED 10695
McKenzie - Ind 5389
Non-effect non-transfrble 218254
Con Gain from Lab
As looked likey from the early returns, Candidate Johnson becomes the mayor. The main winner of the second round was the non-effective non-transferable vote; only 54% of ballots cast for the other parties were marshalled to one of the major candidates. Furthermore, Johnson received 48% of votes cast; were this election run under Livejournal's slightly barking rules, Livingstone's first preference pile would be mined for 63401 papers giving second preference to Johnson.
Would a vote under a non-truncated AV system have produced a different result? Probably not; the second count would have been between Johnson and Livingstone, but those who specified (say) Berry - Paddick would have been entitled to have their third preference considered.
Constituency results
Here's a surprise!
Barnet / Camden - C hold Bexley / Bromly - C hold Brent / Harrow - Lab GAIN City and East - Lab hold Croydn / Sutton - C hold Ealing / Hllngd - C hold Enfeld / Hrngey - Lab hold Grnwch / Lewshm - Lab hold Havrng / Rdbrge - C hold Lambth / Sthwrk - Lab hold Merton / Wndswt - C hold North East - Lab hold South West - C hold West Central - C hold
A Labour gain in Brent and Harrow, which we suspect comes from the Ken Livingstone Fan Club coming out to vote in its powerbase of Brent. Lib Dems were reduced to fifth in City and East, well beaten by both Respect and the BNP. In that constituency, six candidates (including the Greens) secured 5% of the vote to save their deposit, which may be a record. The Greens came third in West Central, and ran the Lib Dems close in North East and Merton/Wandsworth.
The mayoral vote has also been split by GLA constituency, showing the BNP was strongest in the north-east of the city (which, confusingly, is Bexley/Bromley, City and East, Havering/Redbridge, but not the North East constituency) and Croydon/Sutton.
Top-up lists
C 835535 -- 8+3=11 Lab 665443 -- 6+2= 8 LD 275272 -- 0+3= 3 G 203465 -- 0+2= 2 BNP 130714 -- 0+1= 1 ---------------- CC 70294 ACC 63596 R(GG) 59721 UIP 46617 ED 25569 LL 22583 UPS 6394 Ind 3974 OLLDH 3430 Quota: 75957.72727
If this share were used in our London swingometer, we see the Conservatives hold Brent/Harrow, showing that it was a good result for Labour. The one we missed was the Abolish the Congestion Charge independent, who polled fifth in Brent/Harrow and West Central, but didn't have the momentum in the suburbs. R(GG) and BNP came third and fourth in City and East; the BNP managed third in Havering and Redbridge; the Greens were third on the list vote in Greenwich/Lewisham, North East, and West Central. We may as well consign One London (Leader Damien Hockney) to the history books now.
It's always difficult to track the changes in top-up seats: we reckon that the Conservatives made their two net gains from UIP, and the BNP's gain comes from the Lib Dems via Labour.
Closing thoughts
While the surface of this result appears to be a return to two-party politics, the undercurrents are interesting. The Conservatives have the mayor, and remain the largest party, and have gained seats as the Europhobes came back. Labour did well to get out the vote in Brent, make the one constituency gain, and to defend their seats on the authority; that gain is perhaps the one ray of light in an otherwise dismal election day. The Lib Dems fell away, didn't really challenge in South West, and were perhaps reduced to their core vote, which is still a quarter of a million people. The Greens proved their strength, and again showed that they should be treated as a serious fourth force across the capital. The BNP had a very patchy result, performing well in their stronghold, but not really getting out of the north-east quadrant. That said, it's the BNP's first major position of power, and there are all sorts of commentators just waiting for the party to show its colours.
Don't like the result? This Is Wrong. Better: constructive engagement with your elected representatives, and talk to them. Write a letter to Mayor Johnson's pad, explaining why you didn't vote for him, and what you hope he might do. Ditto with the GLAMs; most readers will have someone they can identify with, if not call their own. The same principle applies with elected officials in other places; we've already sent a note to the defeated candidate in our council ward, thanking him for his years representing this ward, and discussing the negative campaigning of the final few days.
And finally, allow us one last titter. Mayor Johnson. The mind boggles.
