Normally, our letterbox will receive three or four leaflets in the run up to an election. This year, we had nine: four from the Space Cadets, and five from the Soupies. Indeed, we took no fewer than three communications on blue string paper in the last week of the campaign.
On Tuesday, we got a letter saying, Woes! The BNP is standing in this ward. Aargh! Seats won by the BNP inexorably see an increase in vandalism, more violent attacks, and a decline in house prices. Bullshit! Only Labour can stop the BNP from winning. If you vote for another party, the BNP might get in. Well, dear, if we voted Labour and more people voted BNP, they would win. That's democracy, folks. And do these tell the racists to STFU campaigns actually encourage people to vote for the BNP? We deserve a proper scientific study.
Clearly, Labour was worried that it would lose the seat, its last representative in this blog's ward. If Labour thought it could retain the seat, it wouldn't have launched a personal attack on the opposition candidate, nor trumpteted the outgoing councillor's support for the identity register.
The result: This Bit of Brum: Con Gain
(As ever, we won't disclose who we voted for. We are satisfied with our decision, though would be much happier with the result if an independent had been elected, even though no independent stood.)
It wasn't just local: Thursday's editions of Het Grauniad was full of scare stories about the media-friendly mayoral gubbins in Het Grauniad's back yard. Vote for Boris and the world will end, or thereabouts. No result from London has yet been declared.
The party overview
What can we draw from the results? Before the election, we worked out (but neglected to fully publish) a set of criteria that the parties would achieve to claim a success.
Conservative: 42% of the national vote per BBC estimate, and increasing their seats on the London Assembly.
44% of the national vote, which we reckon to be a better target than raw gains, because the Tories will need to have significantly more than 40% at the election. They're ahead by 256 seats and a dozen councils, Southampton is a particularly pleasant shock for the party. So is becoming the largest party in Blackburn - will Straw be to 2010 as Portillo was to 1997? The one they missed was Worcester, just one ward - and about 300 votes - out of reach. The big boon: the Conservatives now hold more councils than Labour did at its high-water mark in 1996.
Labour: Keep seat losses below 200, retain Labour mayor in London, win the new council in Durham.
The psychological effect of so many individual council losses - down by 331 - will sap confidence in the new national leader. Losing heartlands like Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen will hurt, not being the biggest party in Cardiff and Wrexham will hurt. Losing traditional strongholds like Nuneaton & Bedworth and Harlow, and coming within a dozen votes of losing Wakefield - none have had Conservative administrations since they were created - shows that Labour is below even its disastrous levels of the early 80s. Third place in the national vote is perhaps the ultimate humiliation, repeating the disaster of 2004. At the time of writing, no declaration has been made, but it looks like Candidate Johnson has won.
Lib Dems: Regain some of their near-misses, lose nothing, secure a net gain in seats.
Hull and St Albans are certainly back in the fold, Liverpool and Cheltenham may follow in the coming weeks. Pendle is gone, but that's all. The Lib Dems are treading water in this cycle, consolidating their massive gains in 2004; to come out with a net gain of a council and 34 councillors is much better than expected.
Greens: Second party in Norwich, 4th place in the London mayor ballot, 2 GLAMs, net gain overall.
They've a toe-hold in Liverpool, Solihull, and Cambridge, but out of Manchester and South Lakeland, and down a seat in Oxford. Norwich remains the most Green city, with the party rising to second place on the council; they're just one seat off second in Stroud, where the Greens have been strong since the 80s. The small number of like-for-like wards suggests the party's vote is flatlining, but that could be an effect of the improvement in Conservative fortunes diminishing the value of an individual vote. A gain of five councillors, and we have to wonder how much better they would have done if they'd had a fair crack at the media.
Plaid Cymru: Net gains
Looks like they've secured an improvement on every council, apart from the grave loss in Gwynnedd; their one council has been lost to a group opposed to a planned closure of small village schools. Wales still has a healthy number of independents, and doesn't particularly subscribe to the tribal loyalties from over Offa's Dyke, so progress here is still subject to local factors. Betsan Powys at the BBC reckons that the anti-Labour vote scattered to the winds this time: if there's a serious attempt at tactical voting, it could spell disaster for Labour. Up by 33 councillors so far, with some postponed polls to come.
Liberals: Have more councillors than the BNP.
Though he deliberately and maliciously mis-represents their policy at every turn, Mr. the Soup Dragon has given tremendous publicity to the Liberal party over recent weeks. Does this account for their performance? Perhaps not; 20 seats represents a net loss of 2, but the party may hold the balance of power on Liverpool council if the Lib Dems don't secure the defection they promised us.
BNP: Secure at least one GLAM, net gains elsewhere.
Ten net gains takes the party to 37 seats on the night, but the BNP has failed to improve its showing on a like-for-like basis. It's in power nowhere, it holds the balance of power nowhere, and nowhere is it the clear second largest party. It remains a very small and insignificant grouping, less important than all of the parties listed above, and many others (SNP, PUP, UIP, SF, SDLP, UU, R(GG), IKHC, PASTA). For some reason, the BNP has caught the media's attention in a way that much more successful parties don't. The big test, the GL topups, have yet to be declared.
UIP: Get back on the GLA
OL(LDH): Retain seats on the GLA.
Two mutually contradictory targets. UIP retained five councillors and gained three. Again, the GL topups won't emerge until later.
If you don't want to know the result, look away now
Here are the councils that have changed control.
C Gain from Hung
Basingstoke and Deane, previously C 76-82, 86-94
Bury, C 75-86, Lab 86-92, 95-04
Elmbridge, C 73-86, 88-91; RA 02-06
Harlow, Lab 73-02
Maidstone, C 76-83
North Tyneside, Lab 73-04
Redditch, C 79-83, Lab 1983-00, 04-06
Rossendale, lost on by-elections
Solihull, C 73-91, 00-07
Southampton, Lab 96-00
Vale of Glamorgan, Lab 95-99
Wyre Forest, Con 76-79, Lab 96-99, IKHHC 02-04
C Gain from Lab
Nuneaton & Bedworth, Lab since 73
C New Council
Cheshire East
Cheshire West & Chester
C Lose to Hung
Colchester, gained on defections during last year
Hastings, on toss of coin. C 06-08, Lab 98-02, LD 96-98
Purbeck, C since 99
C Possible Gain
Craven, C 99-02
Gloucester, C 73-90, Lab 95-02
Harrogate, C 73-90, LD 94-02, C 04-06
C Possible Loss
Coventry, C since 06
Lab Gain from Hung
Slough, Lab 97-03
Lab Lose to Hung
Blaenau Gwent, Lab since 95
Caerphilly, Lab 95-99, PC 99-04, Lab since 04
Flintshire, Lab since 95
Hartlepool, Lab 95-00, since 04
Merthyr Tydfil, Lab 95-99, since 04
Reading, Lab since 97
Torfaen, Lab since 95
Wolverhampton, Lab 73-78, 80-87, since 88
Lab New Council
Durham
Lab Possible Gain
Bridgend, Lab 95-04
LD Gain from Hung
Burnley, Lab 73-00, 02-04
Kingston-upon-Hull, lost following defections last year
St Albans, LD 94-99, since 06, relied on Mayor's vote last year
Sheffield, Lab 73-99, LD 99-02, Lab 03-07
LD Lose to Hung
Pendle, All/SLD 87-90, Lab 91-94, LD 95-98, since 04
LD Possible Gain
Cheltenham, previously LD 91-98, 02-04
LD Possible Loss
Liverpool, LD since 1998; a defection to LD has been claimed
PC Lose to Hung
Gwynnedd, PC 95-08
Hung New Council
Northumberland
Possible gains / losses are those where one party has exactly half the seats, and may take or retain office on the Mayor's casting vote. For some reason, the BBC and PA assume these are all hung.
This post continues with the results from London.
