A quick word on the elections outside London. These seats fall into two categories. In metropolitan districts, these are the councillors who topped the poll in the all-up elections in 2004; outside the mets, it's seats last fought in 2004. There are also all-up elections in the 22 Welsh unitary authorities; in Barrow-in-Furness following significant boundary changes; and for shadow unitary authorities in Cheshire, Durham, and Northumberland.

The tale of 2004 was bad for Labour, moderate for the Conservatives, good for the Lib Dems, and it was the high-water mark for the Fourth Parties. With the exception of the Greens in Norwich, Oxford, and Brighton, and RESPECT in Birmingham, these minor parties have all fallen far below their mark from last time.

It's forgotten now, but Labour did well in councils down the M6 from Carlisle through Preston and Stoke to Wolverhampton, then down the A38 to south Wales. Those are the seats they're defending this time, leaving a little wiggle room for the opposition parties in this corridor. On the other hand, we said at the time that Labour had traded long-term stability for short-term gain, and has been gradually punished at the polls in the years since, taking big losses in 2006, and significant (but not quite so big) losses last year.

This year, we reckon that Labour still has some territory to lose, and there are a few openings for the opposition, particularly in Wales and the shadow authorities in the north-east. The Conservatives will be looking to poll substantially above 40% nationally. The Lib Dems will be looking to limit their net losses, preferably below 100, and ideally no significant change. Labour will also hope to minimise its losses. The Greens could become the second party in Norwich and Brighton. But the jewel in the crown will be the London mayoral election: Ken or Boris, Boris or Ken.

What does the swingometer say, Peter?

Well, glad you asked. Remember, it's just a bit of fun, but if we take swings and transfers in local council by-elections during 2008, add them all up, weight them for how recent and important they are, we get some interesting results. Also in this table are results for the last three months of 2007, which we could have sworn we put up in December, but evidently didn't.

From that, we can see that there was a clear movement from Labour to the Conservatives during the last quarter of 2007, and that Dave and his Eager Young Space Cadets have retained that advantage. The Lib Dems are losing about 1% of their support to the Conservatives per quarter, but are gaining that much back from Labour defectors. Is that the Cable and Clegg effect, or a tribute to the party's ability to pile up spectacular gains in a small number of seats while losing small amounts of ground in many contests?

As ever, we give each of the transfers to ±1%, thus allowing a 2% variance in any party's showing. Even at best, the UK public is giving the boot to such Labour members as R. Kelly, Nick Palmer, Jim Knight, Glenda Jackson, Andrew Dismal, Emily Wildthornberry, Charles The Elephino Clarke, and Barbara Follett. It's possible that they might be joined by such stalwarts as Gwyneth Dunwoody, Jon Cruddas, Gerald Kaufman, and Jim Murphy. Frank Dobson is under serious threat from the Lib Dems, but the guaranteed scalp, and the where-were-you moment: when you heard that Jacqui Marginal had lost.

And, using our shiny new London predictor thingy, we see the Conservatives gaining Enfield 'n' Haringey, the Lib Dems taking Lambeth 'n' Southwark. That leads to a makeup: C 11, Lab 6, LD 6, G 2.

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